Guest Post: Consumer Deleveraging = Commercial Real Estate Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture

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Hephasteus's picture

10/10/10 and dad is bringing back the bullshit

America's are going to spend 447 billion dollars this holiday season. Srsly!!!

http://news.yahoo.com/video/business-15749628/22310040

That's 1500 bucks per man woman and child. Take out the 30 million unemployed and it's 1650. It's going to be an ounce of gold christmas.

DavidPierre's picture

Smokey Quinn understands nothing of these BANKER/CIA/MAFIA/CEOs and their ilk. 

Nice fancy photos, charts and graphs... but he is more delusional than the commercial developers ever thought of being. 

Smokey Quinn believes the "Official" 9\11 Lies, Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and the Efficient Market theory.

It seems Smokey Quinn's entire financial belief system is based upon intellectual deficit, fantasy, fraud, and delusion.

Smokey Quinn blows more smoke than Suzy Welch.

SMOKEY QUINN is up to all sorts of tricks ... cut and paste... plagiarism... but especially obscene racism, posted under his various AKA's...etc.

See:
#577149

#577421

Beware!...  Stay out of his manure paddock/blog as Smokey Quinn has a strong sexual preference for his sheep. 

 

Hephasteus's picture

And the cheese slides off another cracker.

DavidPierre's picture

Hephasteus:

If you really want to wallow in some of the shit Smokey Quinn was running at his blog go back and check out one of his classic racist rants.

#495628

I won't repost it here. 

Since I posted it on ZH, Smokey Quinn later deleted HIS RANT off his sheep paddock site. 

...................................................................................

#577815
Jason Rines, Smokey Quinn's former webmaster...

"Smokey and Jim are the same people, yes. I mapped both the I.P.'s back to his office at Wharton."

........................................................................................

 

Hide yourself in shame MORON!    But...

You will always have 'your sheep' who will still respect you in the morning.

DP

 

John Bigboote's picture

If he is racist does that mean he is wrong about CRE?

Hephasteus's picture

I still don't know why he's blowing this crap at me.

Hey have you seen John Smallberries? He hasn't reported in for a while.

Jim Quinn's picture

How sad is your pathetic little life that you must troll discussion boards spewing your hate? I guess being an American traitor really must wear on the conscience. Time for you to go back and watch JFK for the 40,000th time and pray for another 9/11. Enjoy your pathetic little life in your shack deep in the woods of British Columbia where men are men and sheep are scared.  

laurie's picture

Anyone who has read Jim Quinn's blog for the past year or two knows that this DavidPierre (DP) guy is a nutjob who lies and spams theburningplatform.com with nasty comments and photos.  This is because Jim disagrees with DP, who thinks 9/11 was pulled off by our own government.  Honestly this obsession with Quinn makes DP look like a very sad, pathetic human being.

i-dog's picture

"Jim disagrees with DP, who thinks 9/11 was pulled off by our own government. "

Then Jim's as dumb as a doorpost!

Smokey1's picture

Of the thousands of members of Jim Quinn's site, many comment regularly. All of the regulars are keenly aware that Quinn and Smokey (me) are two different people. David Pierre is aware of that also, but DP does not have much regard for the truth. Quinn allows an extremely wide range of free speech on his site, and occasionally the comments I(Smokey) have made could be construed as racially insensitive. Again, those words are MINE (Smokey), not Quinn's. DP has a habit of attributing my (Smokey's) remarks to Quinn. Quinn won't let DP on his site because DP continues to spam it with 9/11 conspiracy nonsense.

DavidPierre's picture

Smokey Quinn:

You just cannot help yourself MORON.

Now you post under an aka on ZH.

Explain why you take down long standing and obscenely racist, "Smokey", comments off of the '30 Blocks of Squalor' thread if they were not yours?

Every one is a Liar and should Fuck Off... except you.

Right!

 

 

Smokey1's picture

DP---Your lies are transparent. ANYONE is free to easily look at any of the past articles on Quinn's site and see the MANY nasty arguments I've had with Quinn over this country's military policy. His belief that Ron Paul could save this country and my belief that we would be speaking Russian in this country before the end of Ron Paul's first term. But of course you already know that, but can't refrain from your psychotic drivel. Why don't you give it a rest? Everybody knows you are a deluded fool and in severe need of professional psychological evaluation. Again, to expose your sick shit, all anyone has to do is take a few minutes and check out the past posts on TBP. You are a liar and a fraud. Seriously, DP. Get help.

-Michelle-'s picture

I'm waiting to see how many of those idiotic "Lexus in the driveway wrapped in a bow" commercials there are this year.

Almost Solvent's picture

Buy a Lexus.

Get it giftwrapped for free.

 

frankTHE COIN's picture

A massive amount of these loans were the equivalent of Interest Only payments for years until the resets begin. Now that the resets are here ( no consumer buying, thus no profits ) the adjusted new payments are multiples higher.

Warm up the bankruptcies !

kathy.chamberlin@gmail.com's picture

got. COIN morning do you people ever sleep? really how do u do it. goin  pick up the horn.

frankTHE COIN's picture

On California time. It was a coincidence.

Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We should turn strip malls into homeless shelters.

Almost Solvent's picture

Carl Paladino running for gov in NY wants to put welfare recipients & the homeless into underutilized prisons for personal hygiene & how to work lessons.

 

Of course he should have thought of empty strip malls first, then he would not have been attacked as racist, etc.  

i-dog's picture

I think FEMA already has the fences and guard towers on order.

gwar5's picture

I fear for commercial real estate. We're all in trouble if this gets worse. Which means it will.

tip e. canoe's picture

not if you own a skateboard.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Will Washington go to bat for CMBS holders and banks again? And again? 

Going back to the well won't be quite as rewarding. There'll be winners and losers in the game, but that's enough to spook markets for a while. I wonder how much high yield debt is hanging in the balance. 

In the next phase of societal collapse a la Orlov, State governments seize vacant commercial property for use as no income housing. 

Miles Kendig's picture

Allowing loans to be rolled over with no hope of ever being repaid will only prolong the pain and delay the inevitable

While doing so allows the party to go on for an even greater period of time.  Everyone knows that the primary responsibility of an "independent" central bank is to know when to take away the punch bowl .. er .. keep the hopium flowing.  And with the vice of vice herserlf Janet Yellen now on the job there will be free dope for as long as government and the banks want it.

traderjoe's picture

"They will receive their fat bonuses and stock options right up until the day they are shown the door."

Here, let me correct that for you:

"They will be allowed to resign with their $100 million severance intact after a little dust up with some expense reports and a DD-list 'movie' star, and then get hired promptly by a direct competitor who will offer a multi-million signing bonus." There, that's a bit more accurate. 

Nice article. I don't we will make it the 10 years to de-leverage. System imploding in 3...2...1....

AUD's picture

Much the same here in Australia, I live not far from a smallish country town, hardly boomtown & it has plenty of vacant commercial real estate.

The consumer is not deleveraging though, as you say, the value of the dollar gets crushed and you end up bailing out the banking system.



i-dog's picture

Australia can just keep digging shit up (or chopping it down) and shipping it out to anyone with Yuan, Yen or Rupees. That should keep the Aussie Ponzi going quite a bit longer than for EU and US.

Caviar Emptor's picture

Breaking: Vietnam may reverse gold import ban. 

http://bit.ly/aohXld

StychoKiller's picture

With Gold quoted at $1363+ as I type this, sounds like there's no "may" about it!

cranky-old-geezer's picture

" ... that will play out over the next decade."

Bullshit.  It's going to collapse in 3 years tops ...along with lots of other stuff.

I get so sick of hearing "in ten years", those folks don't have a clue how bad things really are and how quickly it can all come down.

Popo's picture

Yes. True.  It *should* all come down quickly.  But if there's one takeaway from what we've seen so far:  The powers that be are *much* better at extend and pretend than anyone thought possible.

I was banging the drum for 'imminent collapse' for a long time.  Now, the truth is: I have no idea "when" shit will fall apart.  

I'll say this about our mutual enemy:  They're good.

 

 

 

kaiserhoff's picture

Well said, Popo.  As long as they can keep banks open with negative equity, and whole states ignore their own bankruptcy, this damn fraud rolls on.

We got a bit of rain on the coast recently.  It was fun to see so many for sale signs sitting in 3 inches of water.  Many of those signs are changing to "must sell."

Maybe, someday, there will be justice in the world.

Xibalba's picture

Customer Al Thomas added, "I was driving down the interstate and saw the sign that said Bass Pro open and I said, 'I‘ve got to come in and get some stuff!'  Even stuff I don't need, I'm going to buy something." -

http://www.wkrn.com/Global/story.asp?S=13177839

-Michelle-'s picture

I'm sorry, Xibalba.  I thought you made that quote up.  I clicked on the link and read the story and now know that you didn't.  My apologies.

God help us all.

Oh regional Indian's picture

A reading of the last weeks headliners at ZH looks eerily like a slow-motion domino collapse.

Stux, Bunds, reel estate, sovereign defaults, lies, gloom....

Interesting times indeed. Add 10/10/10 (is the UK a target again, a la 7/7/7?, all the "alerts" seem to point that way).

And in case anyone forgets, the UK is/was the US's mother ship. I know, sucks, but true.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

fresbee's picture

There my Gold bugs is dreaded news for ZH:

 

Japan says it wont devalue its currency.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-07/japan-won-t-join-a-currency-devaluation-race-vice-finance-minister-says.html

 

Unfortunately when I was talking about this a few days back in comments, ZH was mocking me. There is only one country and its crony who will be involved in the devaluation process but even before they are half way through the devaluation, the whole world esp Chinese and Russians will corner them or engage in military to force the US into austerity which will absolutely bankrupt the US and UK (Only US,UK and not EU which will emerge as the super power of the new century even with PIIGS who will look healthy compared to pale US and UK economies in late 2011/12. 

 

EURO is well on its medium term target of 1.6 and then surge from there.

 

Gold bugs! Am sorry, no place for you. You will hold that metal to your grave and will die poor. :)

Caviar Emptor's picture

Let me understand: before we get to nirvana we'll have killer competitive devaluation of the dollar followed by military intervention and US/UK bankruptcy....and you consider that gold-bearish??

Lol.

If the world economies devolve into war, the ONLY place for safe placement of wealth will be gold since all bets and rules of business are off, chaos prevails and nobody can tell what the world will look like in the other side. When entire governments can topple, fiat money becomes like Monopoly money: based on the full faith and credit of nobody.

I'll take my money in gold under that scenario and have a fighting chance to take it with me anywhere I go knowing that everyone else is thinking the same thing and in a world craving stability and safe wealth preservation.

fresbee's picture

".and you consider that gold-bearish??"

 

I hold Gold paper buddy. Get the theory correct. Gold is an anti dollar trade but not end of fiat currency trade. So EURO 1.6 will far outperform Gold at 1400. I dont ever see Gold at 2000. Before that Gold will crash against euro. Dollar may not survive more than 2 years.

Hephasteus's picture

Like a firefly with his ass stuffed in a chunk of coal.

Popo's picture

EUROS???  LOL.

 

 

Hephasteus's picture

Look dipshit. Devaluing currency changes the leverage ratio's of gold. It can't go from 100:1 to 200:1. It's going to frikkin crash.

Mock. Mock. Mock.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5f_gbzo4Q0

They can devalue the currencies just by unraveling the lies a bit as you are starting to see many nations CHANGE thier gold reserve numbers for NO APPARENT reason. But if any TRUE QE hits that requires moving gold reserves or clearing international settlements. The system will crash with threatening phone calls about tungesten and send me my gold bitch.

Jendrzejczyk's picture

 

“It’s not our intention to engage in a currency- devaluation race for the sake of the national interest,” Igarashi said in an interview in Tokyo today. “We could conduct smoothing operations when movements are extremely volatile, that would be permissible.”

It's not an intervention, it.....it....it's a "smoothing operation."

Can't. resist. feeding. seagulls. at. boardwalk.

The Navigator's picture

'They' say they will not devalue but issuing Trillions in Yen to make exports competitive IS devaluing their currency. The truth is Japan (and all other sovereign Central Banks) will continue to print/issue trillions more to save their exporters as other countries race to the bottom in printing Quadrillions. I won't have to wait til grave time to wave my shinny metals in the face of impoverished fiat paper holders to get the last laugh - in fact, I don't expect to wait more than 2 years for the collapse. Where the hell is Johnny Bravo?

Chappaquiddick's picture

Buddy, I hope that you're right, but I think that you're not - the only thing going for the US economy at the moment is the size of the US Military.  The spectre of deflation may result in the US adopting some rather novel economic stimulus packages.  As war is the great inflater, I think the death throws of the Republic will initiate the greatest inflation surge of all.

 

Diogenes's picture

Let your soldiers dig for gold with their bayonnets. The cost of the military is dragging you down more than they are propping you up.

Seriously, what is your military going to do? Drop an A bomb on Peking? And that is supposed to make them help you?

Chappaquiddick's picture

It'll be about what it's always about: oil and other precious natural resources.

It'll be couched in terms that average Joe understands: Good guy's vs bad guy's.

It'll be executed sanctioned by the Senate and adorned by the Flag.

God Bless America and God help us all!