Guest Post: Crude Oil & Gasoline Seasonal Tendencies

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Sun, 04/24/2011 - 16:53 | 1201601 CrashisOptimistic
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This is all silliness.

There are only two seasons.

Pre Peak and Post Peak.


Mon, 04/25/2011 - 02:48 | 1202497 thames222
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where's the zerohedge "Like" button?  well said, there's two realities--a matrix like present and a post-apocalyptic future.  the crash is the turning point and no one knows we're hitting it.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 05:37 | 1202765 Popo
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...not to mention that seasonal tendencies seem a tad irrelevant at a time when most of the oil-producing world is seething with pre-revolutionary unrest.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 17:10 | 1201624 Long-John-Silver
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Staycation summer 2011 Bitchez! Say goodbye to Americas tourism industry.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 17:36 | 1201664 Bubbles...bubbl...
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I already had a couple of friends cancelling their summer plans to visit us from abroad because they don't want to be groped by the TSA. And I am cancelling my summer visit to Nashville for the same reason.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 18:05 | 1201698 George Huxley
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True purpose of TSA: Lower fuel demand by discouraging travel. I wonder what effect the TSA has had on airline profits.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 18:29 | 1201757 Libertarian777
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you're missing the other point of TSA...

to help reduce structural unemployment by retraining minimum wage workers into radiologists and x-ray technicians.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 02:59 | 1202513 Tejano
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TSA's primary mission is to help travelers get used to unwarranted searches of their persons and property. It's a public service.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:47 | 1202176 rocker
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Have you ever counted all the sardines in a sardine can?

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 17:24 | 1201647 slewie the pi-rat
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and election day is the first tuesday in november, which hath 30 days like april and june...

i will not be driving miss daisy on electionday. 

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 17:54 | 1201687 RobotTrader
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Went to the motocross track this morning out at Lake Perris, traffic was a freaking nightmare getting home.  Amazed how $4.25 gasoline doesn't faze these people in the least .  Cost me $105 to fill up yesterday, I can afford it because I make good money.  But I have no clue how all these other people in the lower income groups can pay for the gas.

Same with air travel, the red-eye flight back and forth from Boca Raton was jam packed, passengers look like the same ilk you would find on a Greyhound bus.  Stinking, farting, smelly overweight people that look like they work in a boileroom call center for Verizon or something. These people don't even blink at shelling out $650 airfare.

By the way, Nicole Foss on FSO this weekend expects crude oil to crash back down to $20/bbl.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 17:57 | 1201694 Bubbles...bubbl...
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Nobody who makes "good money" goes to the motocross track at Lake Perris. Poor RT, that hamburger and power drink diet must be taking it's toll.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 18:08 | 1201711 buzzsaw99
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He probably has to save money to offset losses on his failed flip in Boca Raton. :roll:

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 18:11 | 1201719 RobotTrader
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Motocross is expensive, $100/weekend in gas, $25 entry each day, I eat up lots of chains, tires, etc.  I figure I spend $1,000/mo. racing each weekend, but that's a lot less than my buddies who ride superbikes at Willow Springs, they spend 3x that amount on race tires alone.  Heh, at least it's cheaper than wasting time with those high-end Beverly Hills escorts with the foreign accents like I did 10 years ago.  LOL.....

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 20:43 | 1201990 slewie the pi-rat
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that's enuf, RT!  heidi fleiss didn't kiss & tell.  LOL!

or did she? 

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:26 | 1202150 AccreditedEYE
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Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:28 | 1202151 AccreditedEYE
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Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:58 | 1202196 tmosley
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lol, RobotTrader.  Just lol.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:41 | 1202169 Id fight Gandhi
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Agreed. People I know making good money have fancy sports cars to race, small airplanes and boats.

Playing in the dirt is low brow.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 18:06 | 1201706 Racer
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$105 to fill up!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WOW... that IS cheap! Or you must have a tiny tank?


Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:52 | 1202181 johnnynaps
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I never blinked at a thousand dollar loss at Ceasars......or a $400 night out eating and drinking. Eventually, they too will have their credit laid to rest. Not that it matters now with the tightening of lending.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 17:59 | 1201691 Dejean Splicer
Sun, 04/24/2011 - 18:03 | 1201702 Racer
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"foliage sighting season"

Is the country so built up that you have to drive around trying to be the first to spot a weed?

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 20:11 | 1201936 Freewheelin Franklin
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I heard President Obama saying something about cracking down on oil speculators and market manipulators. I guess this means Blythe will soon be wearing prison orange?

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:45 | 1202174 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

You heard him say something? Just moving his lips. Nothing will change. If they wanted to they could help, but they won't.

Blame the rich in public and kiss their ass in private.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 21:24 | 1202070 yuping
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It could possibly be ed hardy online  the store ed hardy womens  which could be headed from the buy ed hardy  chairman along using the CEO, Michael S. Jeffries, who is operating this institution in an ed hardy store effective and  ed hardy les hommes  effective manner.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:19 | 1202139 Blythe
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Butane, no it does not come out of my butt and nulify the thesis.



Winter Grade, Summer Grade.  One is more expensive than the other.  Also, Gasoline does not store well for 6 months.   I hope some Hedgefund doesn't go try to do this and make the whole investment community look bad, but one probably will and then the President's working group on Communism can blame capitalism when said Hedge fund causes avg Gasoline prices to go up by .03.

Sun, 04/24/2011 - 22:47 | 1202175 vast-dom
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i agree get out of oil mid May and get into short positions right then and there. 

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 00:27 | 1202294 cbxer55
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I like farting, especially if there is someone else around to enjoy the aroma.  ;-)

I don't do silent-but-deadlies, I talk out my ass so everyone can hear.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 01:34 | 1202409 SilverDoctors
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Silver short squeeze going down NOW!!! $49.80!!!

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 02:48 | 1202493 tomster0126
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Nice stats bro, you definitely killed it.  I've been following something similar for the last two years, but not splitting it bi-monthly like that.  Wtg I'm for sure trying this exact plan next year.

Mon, 04/25/2011 - 03:00 | 1202515 ivars
ivars's picture

Oil is relatively easy to predict. FED announces tigtening NOW, oil drops 10-15%, next MENA supply disturbanece happens, oil goes up 30% to Brent 140 in July,  FED announces more tightening, oil goes down 10-15%, next MENA supply disruption happens, there is too much USD around, oil goes up to 150-160 Brent in October etc ad infinitum. See the graph here (from Feb 6th, already with a proven track record!):

Graph shows a dip in early May. Only explanation- FED tightening message on April 27th or soon afterwards.








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