Guest Post: Crude Oil & Gasoline Seasonal Tendencies

Tyler Durden's picture

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CrashisOptimistic's picture

This is all silliness.

There are only two seasons.

Pre Peak and Post Peak.

 

thames222's picture

where's the zerohedge "Like" button?  well said, there's two realities--a matrix like present and a post-apocalyptic future.  the crash is the turning point and no one knows we're hitting it.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

Popo's picture

...not to mention that seasonal tendencies seem a tad irrelevant at a time when most of the oil-producing world is seething with pre-revolutionary unrest.

Long-John-Silver's picture

Staycation summer 2011 Bitchez! Say goodbye to Americas tourism industry.

Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

I already had a couple of friends cancelling their summer plans to visit us from abroad because they don't want to be groped by the TSA. And I am cancelling my summer visit to Nashville for the same reason.

George Huxley's picture

True purpose of TSA: Lower fuel demand by discouraging travel. I wonder what effect the TSA has had on airline profits.

Libertarian777's picture

you're missing the other point of TSA...

to help reduce structural unemployment by retraining minimum wage workers into radiologists and x-ray technicians.

Tejano's picture

TSA's primary mission is to help travelers get used to unwarranted searches of their persons and property. It's a public service.

rocker's picture

Have you ever counted all the sardines in a sardine can?

slewie the pi-rat's picture

and election day is the first tuesday in november, which hath 30 days like april and june...

i will not be driving miss daisy on electionday. 

RobotTrader's picture

Went to the motocross track this morning out at Lake Perris, traffic was a freaking nightmare getting home.  Amazed how $4.25 gasoline doesn't faze these people in the least .  Cost me $105 to fill up yesterday, I can afford it because I make good money.  But I have no clue how all these other people in the lower income groups can pay for the gas.

Same with air travel, the red-eye flight back and forth from Boca Raton was jam packed, passengers look like the same ilk you would find on a Greyhound bus.  Stinking, farting, smelly overweight people that look like they work in a boileroom call center for Verizon or something. These people don't even blink at shelling out $650 airfare.

By the way, Nicole Foss on FSO this weekend expects crude oil to crash back down to $20/bbl.

Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

Nobody who makes "good money" goes to the motocross track at Lake Perris. Poor RT, that hamburger and power drink diet must be taking it's toll.

buzzsaw99's picture

He probably has to save money to offset losses on his failed flip in Boca Raton. :roll:

RobotTrader's picture

Motocross is expensive, $100/weekend in gas, $25 entry each day, I eat up lots of chains, tires, etc.  I figure I spend $1,000/mo. racing each weekend, but that's a lot less than my buddies who ride superbikes at Willow Springs, they spend 3x that amount on race tires alone.  Heh, at least it's cheaper than wasting time with those high-end Beverly Hills escorts with the foreign accents like I did 10 years ago.  LOL.....

Id fight Gandhi's picture

Agreed. People I know making good money have fancy sports cars to race, small airplanes and boats.

Playing in the dirt is low brow.

Racer's picture

$105 to fill up!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WOW... that IS cheap! Or you must have a tiny tank?

 

johnnynaps's picture

I never blinked at a thousand dollar loss at Ceasars......or a $400 night out eating and drinking. Eventually, they too will have their credit laid to rest. Not that it matters now with the tightening of lending.

Racer's picture

"foliage sighting season"

Is the country so built up that you have to drive around trying to be the first to spot a weed?

Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I heard President Obama saying something about cracking down on oil speculators and market manipulators. I guess this means Blythe will soon be wearing prison orange?

Id fight Gandhi's picture

You heard him say something? Just moving his lips. Nothing will change. If they wanted to they could help, but they won't.

Blame the rich in public and kiss their ass in private.

yuping's picture

It could possibly be ed hardy online  the store ed hardy womens  which could be headed from the buy ed hardy  chairman along using the CEO, Michael S. Jeffries, who is operating this institution in an ed hardy store effective and  ed hardy les hommes  effective manner.

Blythe's picture

Butane, no it does not come out of my butt and nulify the thesis.

 

 

Winter Grade, Summer Grade.  One is more expensive than the other.  Also, Gasoline does not store well for 6 months.   I hope some Hedgefund doesn't go try to do this and make the whole investment community look bad, but one probably will and then the President's working group on Communism can blame capitalism when said Hedge fund causes avg Gasoline prices to go up by .03.

vast-dom's picture

i agree get out of oil mid May and get into short positions right then and there. 

cbxer55's picture

@robotictrader

 

I like farting, especially if there is someone else around to enjoy the aroma.  ;-)

I don't do silent-but-deadlies, I talk out my ass so everyone can hear.

tomster0126's picture

Nice stats bro, you definitely killed it.  I've been following something similar for the last two years, but not splitting it bi-monthly like that.  Wtg I'm for sure trying this exact plan next year.

 

www.forecastfortomorrow.com

ivars's picture

Oil is relatively easy to predict. FED announces tigtening NOW, oil drops 10-15%, next MENA supply disturbanece happens, oil goes up 30% to Brent 140 in July,  FED announces more tightening, oil goes down 10-15%, next MENA supply disruption happens, there is too much USD around, oil goes up to 150-160 Brent in October etc ad infinitum. See the graph here (from Feb 6th, already with a proven track record!):

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2626&st=0&sk=t&sd=a#p30486

Graph shows a dip in early May. Only explanation- FED tightening message on April 27th or soon afterwards.