Guest Post: Depression Within A Depression

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Sat, 10/23/2010 - 11:31 | 671820 trip nixon
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I don't know how to submit tips to Tyler, but I made a startling discovery this weekend. I cropped and pasted the rallies from March to mid-April (the second leg up on the rally) to the most recent rally from Sept to mid-Oct. What I discovered were two charts that were almost visually identical, and also the same height.

My question for Tyler and his experts is: What are the odds of this happening in nature?

My website looks at historical comparisons to look for trading edges:

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 11:43 | 671832 Implicit simplicit
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Keeping my cash insurance for a couple of years. I think the old saying of "buy the rumor , sell the news" will apply to QE2. Frontrun QE2-sell the news.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:44 | 671917 treemagnet
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I agree, except I already voted bearish until I found ZH and discovered I was competing with Ben's POMO bullshit.  But, it ain't over - I'm just early.

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 11:41 | 673244 Shocker
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We are the closest thing to a depression.




Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:02 | 671859 Winston Smith 2009
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Could this have something to do with the fact that 70% of the trades are now from HFT? In other words, computer algorithms gradually producing the same approximate curve in both cases?

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:10 | 671964 SteveNYC
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I believe you've nailed it. Anything "organic" would have, and has, sold this market a long time ago. It is merely a scalping mechanism now for HFT and established Wall St. chop-shops.....until it is not. 

How many times will the Earth appear to "normally" rotate the sun until something disrupts its (and therefore the entire solar systems) orbit (removal of a condition)? How many times can HFT run the market up in what appears to be a "normal" fashion, before one condition is removed and the whole thing comes down? What will this "condition" be?

Even the hedge funds are starting to drop out of the charade as they simply can not justify their existence anymore, in many cases.

Just sit on the sidelines and watch, in my opinion I believe that, in our lifetimes, we are guaranteed to see a phenomenal event concerning "markets".

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:32 | 671996 Rasna
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I agree...

The initial "model" produced a result with a positive outcome... Having proved the hypothesis and confirmed the "facts" (Can the market be manipulated to produce a desired outcome - higher and higher prices that are decoupled from economic reality and fundamentals?)

  Yes, by massive injections of liquidity... Can this process be repeated?  Let's try by resetting the model and the initial conditions.  Ergo, the latest ramp that looks identical to the first.

If you think about chaos theory, and the uncertainty associated with large inherently unstable systems, with many degrees of freedom, relying on the model to repeat the results indefinitely (or even a 3rd time) is like playing Russian roulette... Eventially a round will be chambered, and the player (Fed) will blow their brains out.

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 00:15 | 672850 jeff montanye
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and i agree.  three times won't be the charm.  two will be pushing it but i'm shooting for lower treasury yields, gold and stocks by the new year.  more muted than '08 but worth trading.  we shall see.  what diversifies (complements) a gold and silver portfolio best over the next five years?  besides lead (brass, ammo, guns) and spam (etc.).  thanks.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:39 | 672017 sgt_doom
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Sat, 10/23/2010 - 20:05 | 672515 greyghost
greyghost's picture name is IGNORATI BOOBUS AMERICANUS....i have drunk from the poisoned well.....i need help...that is why i am here

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:43 | 672030 greased up deaf guy
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similar observation made on the 20th (originally found by bill lumbergh)...

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 17:42 | 672346 ZackLo
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Murray N. Rothbard was brilliant, I wish I could have met the man before he died.

If you guys are interested heres some of his lectures on the 20th century....

his voice is a little repetitive because of the audio at first but you get used to the quality after listening to a couple, Definitly a scholar with analyzation of history thats impeccable.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 11:34 | 671823 Sean7k
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Very well constructed argument. Could have delved into the creation of cartels, protection of unions and other government snafu's during the depression, but overall- right on the money. Thanks!

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 12:40 | 671912 B9K9
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Hey Sean, I liked the comment you made on a previous thread where you noted that governments exist primarily for the benefit of the governors. Once one has this proper orientation, it becomes much easier to analyze and synthesize the various programs initiated under the rubic of 'common good'.

Keynes is an excellent example. Rather than have any meaningful effect, its purpose is solely devoted to protecting & advancing the control mechanisms already in place to further enrich the controllers. Any residual effect serves only to calm the herd to forestall potential rebellion.

It's a mistake to get caught debating angels on a pinhead. That is, actually question the merits of Keynes - it's merely a diversion. To paraphrase Voltaire, if Keynes didn't exist, the power-elite would have had to invent him. IOW, some/any mechanism had to be advanced (and blessed with academic respect) that promoted the policies we see today to ensure the PTB maintain their control.

Our only possible way out is if they have finally miscalculated. It's a rare event, but it happens periodically throughout history. Here's hoping for our generation.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:18 | 671973 Sean7k
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Thanks. It is the result of studying Rothbard and anarcho-capitalism, but it makes sense to me. 

I agree about Keynes, in fact, I would argue the elites did use Smith, Ricardo and Mills to great effect. Always using the useful part of their theory and discarding or downplaying the part that was in conflict. 

I think our only way out is to realize that these are incredibly intelligent and resourceful people. To know thy enemy as you know thyself. To realize their move will not be predictable or expected, but will work very well and be prepared. 

I have been studying up on operation blue beam as of late and that is one interesting segue to global control. A little tinfoilish, but then, I'm a tinfoil kind of guy.

By the way, I always enjoy your posts, very informative.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:46 | 672036 sgt_doom
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You, sir, sound like a true scholar.....

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:12 | 672151 Red Neck Repugnicant
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I disagree.

Not only is it factually incorrect, it's poorly written.


Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:38 | 672198 Sean7k
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Well. perhaps you can clarify as to how and why? or are you such an esteemed scholar it is not necessary.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 19:09 | 672435 traderjoe
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RNR is the Andy Kaufman of ZH. He is a performance artist. Popping in simply to rile people up and watch the fireworks. Pay him no heed. 

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 00:33 | 672862 jeff montanye
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but it is mill (john stuart) not mills.  keynes is also very imperfectly explicated on this website (my favorite).  he is confused with his bastardization, obfuscation, manipulation and actual inversion by the "power elite", the "politicians", the "government".  he said the government should save in an expansion so as to dissave in a contraction.  that's not what they did.  they dissaved in an expansion and now seek to save in a contraction.  it's not keynes' fault.  he, in a way like jesus and others, found a truth that was true but very hard to follow.

p.s. good kings have done this, in a less rigorously described way, since the invention of agriculture.

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 00:40 | 672882 Sean7k
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Still, he believed in government intervention. This is problematic. I will agree the monetarists are at the root of the problem, but as fabian socialist, Keynes believed in the idea of a superior intelligence guiding common people for their benefit. A superior intelligence residing in a select elite. He believed in government above free markets and here he is a failure.

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 01:12 | 672917 pan-the-ist
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You sir, are but dirt on the toe of a worm that Keynes stepped on.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 18:07 | 672375 tmosley
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You're a moron.

There weren't any facts presented in that post, only opinions based on the works of others (which is fine).  To wave off the post as factually incorrect only demonstrates that you failed to read/understand what he was saying.

Why don't you go back to the Obama forums, and leave the adults in peace?  If you just like to be a troll, go to 4chan.  I'm sure you'll get more of a reaction there.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 21:26 | 672619 New_Meat
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Love it: facts wrong and grammar police at the same time!

I'd bet your neck isn't really red.

- Ned

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 00:25 | 672859 StychoKiller
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So, does "Tan in a Can" come in other colors besides orange, then? :>D

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 09:12 | 673187 New_Meat
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comes with a racist tax ;-)

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 23:38 | 672799 MisesFTW
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Nice post, sans anarcho-capitalism. IMO, It's garbage. I've been to the Mises Institute and was not impressed by Murphy's defense, or Walter Bloch's for that matter. I also found that indirectly, and sometimes directly, connecting Austrian economics to libertarianism / movement, if you will, very unsettling.

Austrian economics looks great on paper; as did Keynesian economics. Keynesian economics was implemented, i'm sure we all know why. Austrian economics will NEVER be implemented. Human reaction toward greed, fear, competition, etc is not conducive to Austrian economic policies. I postulate this using human history as my source.

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 10:39 | 673214 Bob
Bob's picture

Agreed.  The Great Keynes v. Mises Debate is just another blue team-red team spectacle wrt the real world, though I expect that "Austrian economics" will be unleashed once "Keynesianism" has run its useful course for TPTB, rolled out to great fanfare and enthusiastic applause from the other end of the stadium. 

Reminds me of dogs chasing cars. 


Sun, 10/24/2010 - 11:09 | 673289 New_Meat
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Bob, I like your line of thinking.  Are there enough non-Keynsians (let alone Austrians) to fill all of the slots?

Great debate ;-)

- Ned

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 11:49 | 673342 Bob
Bob's picture

Love that video.  Ya gotta love Austrian theory, too, but what about that human wildcard?  Seem to me that "austrian" is more meaningfully contrasted with socialism than with keynsianism, given the profound social restructuring that such a elegantly simple and apparently perfect system would require. 

It's a beautiful idea.  The same could be said for socialism.  Good luck with either form of idealism. 

The human animal always gets in the way. 

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 01:37 | 672948 Cathartes Aura
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nice to see someone post a recognition that "these are incredibly intelligent and resourceful people" - rather than the usual "oh man, they are sooo stoopid!!!" - I liked your post Sean 7k. . . it's good to research circles around their actions, rather than just follow up from behind them.

with regards operation blue beam - don't know if you caught the press on sept. 27th (I don't "do" news much, though I often follow links from some of the smarter ones here at ZH), but this is a good link to the variants:

quite the wild ride should these possibles be "unveiled", eh? hehe.

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 03:46 | 673013 DavidPierre
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Astronauts, generals, top officials reveal major UFO cover-up in this UFO video (90 min)


{Yeah... I know... they all are nuts and you know better... this is just "tin-foil-hat" stuff.  Watch it first then you make up your already closed mind.}

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 11:04 | 673284 New_Meat
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Gotta ask Art Bell.

- Ned

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 16:34 | 673801 Cathartes Aura
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not sure if your end comment was directed at me? DavidPierre. . .

my mind is "open" to probabilities, and my beliefs are that even if I don't actually have direct experience of some thing, that does not preclude an other human having that experience. . . nor does it mean that I might not have that experience at some point in "the future". . .

I've had a lot of "experiences" that others would discount - and fair enough, they are mine, after all. . . *grins*

my post above this regarding the "press releases" was merely pointing to a path-to-storyline that may possibly unfold in the future, and I certainly wouldn't put anything past those who write the world's script(s). . . the "masses" are being gifted with HUGE screen TVs, HiDef, 3D, quad surround system sound, lol - how hard will it be to create a mass hallucination, really? the cables have been laid. . .

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 20:42 | 674089 tip e. canoe
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agree w/ aura once again.   the question is not whether or not aliens/UFOs/ETs exist amongst us but why all of a sudden after years and years of ex-military/NASA/astronauts etc etc etc going public does this testimony start getting coverage by reuters, MSNBC, ABC etc etc etc?

the medium IS the message.  
coming soon to a sky near you.

goldbugs better hope they don't come calling themselves the Annunaki ;~)

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 21:46 | 674166 DavidPierre
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C A:

That was a generalized "You" not aimed at you.

Sorry for the confussion.  It was very late last night.

That end comment was for the fast draw junkers.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:20 | 671980 Pants McPants
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Excellent comment, especially paraphrasing Voltaire.  It has been a six year journey for me, from lefty (grew up in MN) to righty (military) to Ron Paul to anarcho-capitalism.  With the exception of now, every previous philosophy didn't sit right.  There were contraditions.  There were shysters.

I think it was Frank Shostak of the Mises Institute who said it, but he said something to the effect of government need for Keynesian policies preceeded Keynesian economics.

Despite the gloomy nature of my response, I believe in (most) of our generation.  Unfortunately it's going to take a long time to wake up most people.....and I need to work on my patience - especially with my ignorant friends!

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 20:47 | 672577 nuinut
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IMO, Edward Bernays' contribution was probably on a par with Keynes, he has just remained under a lot more radars. But that's really just another angel to fit on that pinhead. 

Sun, 10/24/2010 - 10:42 | 673252 Bob
Bob's picture

The best solution is always the one that's never been tried and  beacons from that wondrous land just over the horizon. 

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 11:45 | 671826 ebworthen
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Besides being economic fellatio that will produce no children, the bailouts and sanctioning of privatized gains and socialized losses of the hedonic oligarchy reinforced the laxity of the indolent and lust for mammon of the corrupt to the shame and detriment of the responsible wishing to live free.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:26 | 671991 tsx500
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 . . . . you had me at fellatio ........

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 16:57 | 672289 Paul E. Math
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I'm thinking the bailouts were more like another sexual act that would also be unlikely to produce any children.  Except, perhaps, those kids that you 'drop off at the pool'.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 19:13 | 672439 traderjoe
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Wow, a fantastic turn of the phrase...

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 11:37 | 671827 sushi
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Great article!! Too bad they couldn't blame the Chinese for the 1929 crash and subsequent depression.

Also, why is no one reporting on the contribution of American industry? Walmart is responsible for 10% of US imports from China, each of the Fortune 500 has major operations in China and all of them benefited by exporting jobs and capital and re-importing finished product.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 13:31 | 672001 11b40
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Yes, Sushi, and you are touching on another major point. 

In the 30's & 40's, we still made things in this country but unemployment still remained in the 15% range until WW2.  How do we expect to add jobs in today's environment?  Low demand = Low investment = Few new jobs = Lower demand = Lower investment = Even fewer jobs = .......

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 15:37 | 672194 sushi
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I think the issue in the '30s and '40s is that there was a major agricultural failure and the population was driven off the land. This collapsed demand and there was no way to reabsorb those who had left the farm. Did not matter what the Fed did, it was not able to reignite the economy.

The irony today is that a lot of the Fed's liquidity is being moved overseas and invested in  EM, increasing thier productive capactiy and employment levels. My hunch is that we see the ROW pick up and undergo expansion, ROW demand will boost commodities demand (oil) and this will feed through into the advanced economies which will still not see job growth but will see higher input costs, decreasing margins and cost of living increases as consumers absorb the higher prices resulting from a yuan revaluation.

I doubt war would offer a solution. You no longer need that many boots on the ground, or expensive airfleets. Just a couple of tomahawks and ROVs being flown out of Nevada.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 18:00 | 672367 BurningFuld
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"Walmart is responsible for 10% of US imports from China, each of the Fortune 500 has major operations in China and all of them benefited by exporting jobs and capital and re-importing finished product" that Americans had to borrow money to purchase.

Now the loop is complete.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 18:15 | 672386 tmosley
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There have been plenty of agricultural failures prior to that, and it never caused a 15 year depression before.

That is not what caused the depression.  It was 100% caused by government meddling in the economy.  Look at the differences in the initial economic shock and length of the GD and the Depression of 1920, then compare the reactions of the government.

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 21:30 | 672626 New_Meat
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+1 and yep. - Ned

Sat, 10/23/2010 - 22:01 | 672664 Fred Hayek
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Amen.  Besides Rothbard's book about the depression, Liaquat Ahamed's book, The Lords of Finance, does a great job explaining how the central banks, especially the Fed, caused the great depression and worsened things when there was still time to head off the depths of it.

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