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Guest Post: The Driver For Gold You’re Not Watching

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research

The Driver for Gold You’re Not Watching

You already know the basic reasons for owning gold – currency
protection, inflation hedge, store of value, calamity insurance – many
of which are becoming clichés even in mainstream articles. Throw in the
supply and demand imbalance, and you’ve got the basic arguments for why
one should hold gold for the foreseeable future.

All of these
factors remain very bullish, in spite of gold’s 450% rise over the past
10 years. No, it’s not too late to buy, especially if you don’t own a
meaningful amount; and yes, I’m convinced the price is headed much
higher, regardless of the corrections we’ll inevitably see. Each of the
aforementioned catalysts will force gold’s price higher and higher in
the years ahead, especially the currency issues.

But there’s
another driver of the price that escapes many gold watchers and
certainly the mainstream media. And I’m convinced that once this
sleeping giant wakes, it could ignite the gold market like nothing we’ve
ever seen.

The fund management industry handles the bulk of the
world’s wealth. These institutions include insurance companies, hedge
funds, mutual funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. But the elephant in
the room is pension funds. These are institutions that provide
retirement income, both public and private.

Global pension assets are estimated to be – drum roll, please – $31.1 trillion. No, that is not a misprint. It is more than twice the size of last year’s GDP in the U.S. ($14.7 trillion).

know a few hedge fund managers have invested in gold, like John
Paulson, David Einhorn, Jean-Marie Eveillard. There are close to twenty
mutual funds devoted to gold and precious metals. Lots of gold and
silver bugs have been buying.

So, what about pension funds?


According to estimates by Shayne McGuire in his new book, Hard Money; Taking Gold to a Higher Investment Level,
the typical pension fund holds about 0.15% of its assets in gold. He
estimates another 0.15% is devoted to gold mining stocks, giving us a
total of 0.30% – that is, less than one third of one percent of assets
committed to the gold sector.

Shayne is head of global research at
the Teacher Retirement System of Texas. He bases his estimate on the
fact that commodities represent about 3% of the total assets in the
average pension fund. And of that 3%, about 5% is devoted to gold. It
is, by any account, a negligible portion of a fund’s asset allocation.

here’s the fun part. Let’s say fund managers as a group realize that
bonds, equities, and real estate have become poor or risky investments
and so decide to increase their allocation to the gold market. If they
doubled their exposure to gold and gold stocks – which would still
represent only 0.6% of their total assets – it would amount to $93.3
billion in new purchases.

How much is that? The assets of GLD
total $55.2 billion, so this amount of money is 1.7 times bigger than
the largest gold ETF. SLV, the largest silver ETF, has net assets of
$9.3 billion, a mere one-tenth of that extra allocation.

The market cap of the entire sector of gold stocks (producers only) is about $234 billion. The
gold industry would see a 40% increase in new money to the sector. Its
market cap would double if pension institutions allocated just 1.2% of
their assets to it.

But what if currency issues spiral out of
control? What if bonds wither and die? What if real estate takes ten
years to recover? What if inflation becomes a rabid dog like it has
every other time in history when governments have diluted their currency
to this degree? If these funds allocate just 5% of their assets to gold
– which would amount to $1.5 trillion – it would overwhelm the system and rocket prices skyward. 

let’s not forget that this is only one class of institution. Insurance
companies have about $18.7 trillion in assets. Hedge funds manage
approximately $1.7 trillion. Sovereign wealth funds control $3.8
trillion. Then there are mutual funds, ETFs, private equity funds, and
private wealth funds. Throw in millions of retail investors like you and
me and Joe Sixpack and Jiao Sixpack, and we’re looking in the rear view
mirror at $100 trillion.

I don’t know if pension funds will
devote that much money to this sector or not. What I do know is that
sovereign debt risks are far from over, the U.S. dollar and other
currencies will lose considerably more value against gold, interest
rates will most certainly rise in the years ahead, and inflation is just
getting started. These forces are in place and building, and if there’s
a paradigm shift in how these managers view gold, look out!

thought of titling this piece, “Why $5,000 Gold May Be Too Low.” Because
once fund managers enter the gold market in mass, this tiny sector will
light on fire with blazing speed. 

My advice is to not just hope
you can jump in once these drivers hit the gas, but to claim your seat
during the relative calm of this month's level prices.


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Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:20 | 1031458 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Here is the ultimate, and only, clue you need to see to get out of the scam that is Bernanke's stock market.


Anyone who doesn't see this as the sign to bail if you are long, you really need your head examined!

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:27 | 1031485 The They
The They's picture

all the pension funds have bought into this phony stock/bond market and will be the ones holding the bag when the shit hits the fan.  Only then will they realize that they should have bought gold but by then they'll have lost all their money and thus be irrelivant (ok maybe this is a slight exageration).

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:31 | 1031502 NewThor
NewThor's picture

Pension funds get kick backs to buy crappy stocks and bonds in bulk.

If you want to find corruption, just look for something that is supposed to be regulated by 

the Government. 


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:18 | 1031703 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Of course - OPM - Other People's Money.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:40 | 1031771 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

It's bad in Canada. We have high management fees for mutual funds. People are piling into ETFs because they have lower fees, but I wonder if people know what they're getting into. I'm buying physical metals, 100% management fee to the fund

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 06:34 | 1032376 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

OT, this might be very pertinent and worth a look and share.

The Axis of Evil Doing

Appreciate comments etc. Tylers?





Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:48 | 1031575 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Pension funds are run by professional money managers (aka parasites). They won't be left holding any bag. The pensioners will be, but that is a whole different matter. The creation of pension funds (trapping the savings/excess labor of workers) was a 'genius' creation of Wall Street. Fees, kickbacks, vessels for crap CDO's, etc., etc. It's a Frankenstein creation of the 'money-changers'. They have no incentive to buy gold, to own gold, or even to protect themselves from any Fourth Turning...The money managers have taken care of themselves quite nicely, thank you very much...

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:42 | 1031773 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

but, just like that veggie cart dealer in Tunisia, it only takes one to start the fire...  what if one pension fund flipped all assets into silver/gold/oil??   You could probably talk someone in Wisconsin into doing that right about now

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:45 | 1031781 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

China and OIL..............

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:03 | 1031828 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Utah? They are trying to pass legislation to pay taxes in silver and gold.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:35 | 1031905 BigJim
BigJim's picture

what if one pension fund flipped all assets into silver/gold/oil??

Well, here's what happened in Holland when a pension fund had 13% in gold:

The banksters won't let it happen, is what happens.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:11 | 1031976 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Because they're too exposed to a possible decline in the price of gold. You gotta love it. If they put the money in German Government Bonds, like the rest of their portfolio; everything will be fine; because Bonds never go down. WTF ? The fuck they don't. Outrageous.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 00:22 | 1032101 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Over 6 months ago the University of Texas endowment bought $500 million in gold.  The entire endowment is about $22 billion. 

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 00:55 | 1032162 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Apparently they're a hell of a lot smarter than Harvard et al.

Hook 'em Horns!

(And I'm in Massachusetts)


Wed, 03/09/2011 - 04:16 | 1032323 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"In any great organization it is far, far safer to be wrong with the majority than to be right alone."
John Kenneth Galbraith

Unfortunately any pension fund that bucked the Fed/Treasury by loading up on PMs would suffer the fate of Bear Stearns or Lehman Bros...maybe not immediately, but down the road they would be made to pay dearly.

For now it is enough that the Asians and the Mid Easterners are heavy buyers of PMs. They are buoying the PM market sufficiently to prevent the Western CBs/bullion banks/commodities exchanges from manipulating PM prices lower with paper PM garbage. When gale froce 5 inflation winds begin to blow the paper will be swept away like straw in a tornado.



Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:41 | 1031544 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture

I saw that article today and the EXACT same thought crossed my mind.

When the little guy starts getting in, or at least when the MSM starts talking about the little guy getting in, you need to start working on an exist strategy for you stocks (except for your precious metals stocks).


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:03 | 1031645 notadouche
notadouche's picture

Wash, rinse, repeat.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:00 | 1031822 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Capt. Kirk,

I do not see the little guys getting in in a meaningful way until the opportunity has already passed them by.  And so they will not.

I do not think pensions are going to move the needle much re gold.

It will be other big players that move the price of gold (central banks, rich people, etc.).

One guy's opinion.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:11 | 1031846 WilliamShatner
WilliamShatner's picture


I agree, in fact the second thought that crossed my mind when I read that article was "how many people do I know diving into the stock market?"

Answer: very few

My inclination is that the article was put out to goad the little guys out the into piling back into stocks like Apple, Netflix and Google.

This leads me to believe that the market rally still has some legs and will continue throughout the summer, they need to keep it going so they can pull in as many suckers as possible before they pull the rug out from under them.

I'm still staying in physical precious metals and related stocks as well as a some money in other resource companies like the uranium and rare earth miners.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:31 | 1031896 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Rare earths...  Did I miss a run there even though I have been looking at that sector for over a year.

At some point I am going to have to pull the trigger and buy AVL and/or MCP.  Then they will down.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 05:31 | 1032358 stopthenewworldorder
stopthenewworldorder's picture

have a butchers at frontier rare earths, way cheaper but a quality asset....

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 03:00 | 1032287 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

I agree, too. And like you, I'm long PMs, PM miners, and Uranium.
Miners and Uranium have been very erratic lately, but I plan to stay on board and add some more when I can.

The article is correct. While say 65% of those funds won't do what they should*, if the rest does invests just 5% in PMs, effects on PM prices will be material.
[* how can they when they must maintain 8% yields that spending projections call for!]
And let's not forget that a lot of that money isn't in US funds. I don't think all foreign funds - especially Asian - will sing to the Western anti-PM tune.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:21 | 1031463 NewThor
NewThor's picture

The best thing about eating gold is pooping gold.

Don't eat ETF GLD paper though, it's boring and painful to poop out.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:36 | 1031524 mynhair
mynhair's picture

The worst thing about drinking gold is putting up with that crap alcohol they put it in.

Time for a 'gold' single malt.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:27 | 1031478 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

A video break. Buy Silver. Loading up every week. Read Casey AMAP.

Every time I see a cool video from the chick that lives
semi off the grid, I like to post the video because like
myself, many of us are preparing for survival when the
SHTF. I have my land in NH. The last 4 minutes are
fantastic. Give it a look and enjoy.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:17 | 1031695 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Like what she is doing, but I think she may be a bit off her rocker...

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:29 | 1032013 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

If you think that is fantastic I just finished a finger painting you probably want to take home and show  to any of your smoked up friends. This is just a girl with extra time thinking every body really wants to watch her walk up a hill with two pets.

Great Theatre, not.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:27 | 1031482 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

watch libya - its not settling down

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:38 | 1031533 DosZap
DosZap's picture

It will why OwaWaaah,brings the Pol Refs to the USA, adding to even more crime,burdens,welfare,NO jobs, and starting NEW terrorist cells.WTF, should we be bring more people into this country?, where is the rhyme or reason?

Truthfully I know this man is SET out to destroy this country.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:02 | 1031830 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Don't hold back on us now DosZap... 


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:29 | 1031737 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Watch Bahrain, the proxy fight between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:28 | 1031486 FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

Sell low, Buy high. Idiots.

Come one elites, slaughter these fools... i agree, you've converted me, screw humanity, the world would be far better off without these herds of useless docile sheep.

P.S. I am still awaiting delivery of my ticket(s) to the underground facility at Denver airport. I have the 1 oz of gold per ticket ready for payment as agreed.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:47 | 1031569 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Yea baby! Look for the signs "Marla/Tyler" and follow the arrows. Free entry.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:52 | 1031943 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

That's the Soylent Green queue -- always free entry to that one.  Marla and Tyler aren't team players (I hope).

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:29 | 1031487 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Institutional investors, that's what I've been saying.... where have they been on gold? Orders from the Fed to steer clear?

If any of these funds start to get serious about U$D Bernankicide, gold has got to go up.  They'll have to jump in sooner or later.

If even a few of them put a toe in the water it would have a big impact.  Greshams' law. Sooner or later they'll figure out that the stock market is denominated in U$D and, in real terms, they have been losing money or merely treading water. 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:29 | 1031489 cetarro
cetarro's picture

Wasn't it a pension fund that was ordered to sell its gold?

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:54 | 1031607 JohnG
JohnG's picture

It was the Dutch!  Damn then! :)


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:07 | 1031660 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

A warning to what's left of the honestly run funds not 'to get too cute', just buy our quadriple A doubleplusgood rated paper?

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:10 | 1031672 DosZap
DosZap's picture


Yes, a Public fund had a Union that had 15%investment, was forced to 5% MAX.

The Gv't didn't apprecite it.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:32 | 1031503 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

Lets get physical,...physical!

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:32 | 1031505 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

how many 401 or other pension plans offer no PM options?

i ve seen many

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:55 | 1031617 hambone
hambone's picture

My employer - an industry leader - offers only long and longer and no PM's, no individual stocks, no ETF's.  Enjoy MM or loooooooooooooooong.  Not nice.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:05 | 1031651 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

i help some people who want a 2nd opinion on managed funds at TBTF banks.  their accounts are often set up to prohibit short vehicles and even some etf and etn products.  unless you complain and get things adjusted you are basically stuck long only equities.  you should see the reaction of the banks when people suggest self directed accounts :)

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:11 | 1031682 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

many company 401 plans only offer a poor selection of long equity funds with little or no access to PMs 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:38 | 1031762 nyse
nyse's picture

It almost seems illegal.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:57 | 1031953 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It's illegal (and immoral) to let the sheep go unsheared.

"It is better to take what does not belong to you than to let it lie around neglected."
Mark Twain

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:32 | 1031507 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

This article smells of a dotcom business plan....

"the total market is a bazillion and if we only get .1% of that it sends shareholder value to the stratosphere" Are you in?

Too many unfounded assumptions for my taste.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:50 | 1031531 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

I'm sure the people who have the pensions in TX feel diferently than you do about it. McGuire has them invested in gold.

Did you miss that part?

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:32 | 1031508 Don Birnam
Don Birnam's picture

Au 79, people.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:34 | 1031511 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Wait a minute. If i recall didn't the netherlands forbid its pension funds to hold gold. I thought I saw a story about that here on ZH about two weeks ago...

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:34 | 1031514 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Pension funds in physical?  No fucking way!  Don't think it's allowed under ERISA.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:34 | 1031521 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

its allowed in IRAs

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:38 | 1031528 mynhair
mynhair's picture

IRAs are not pension funds.

Hence, the 'I'.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:58 | 1031629 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Only paper Gold and Silver are allowed in IRA accounts. You can't have physical possession of it. You "buy" it and they tell you they hold it in the vault for you. They even charge you a storage fee. While this is going on they lease your IRA Gold and Silver to the ETF's and the Comex. Next thing you know the shorts have taken it to cover the demand for physical metal. Then at some point the SHTF so you attempt to collect that Gold and Silver. All you are offered is now worthless fiat because the Gold and Silver you've been paying storage fee's on can't be delivered......

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:14 | 1031691 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

So buy paper gold in an ETF or TGLDX  or whatever and then as your IRA increases in paper gold profits, take the same dollar value from a taxable account and buy physical gold, rinsing IRA $ into physical gold. Your total asset position remains the same except for the tax picture. At least this way, you are converting a fiat retirement account into physical gold.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:28 | 1031742 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Accounts settle at end-of-day.  How many rape sessions have you witnessed?

Every day?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 12:48 | 1033277 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

If you did this kind of rollover I would imagine you'd do it twice a year, maybe quarterly if you have a large dollar value in your IRA. The point is to acquire physical gold and not arb a sweep account or something cute. Just get gold.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:21 | 1031995 ronin12
ronin12's picture

Google "Open Opportunity IRA".

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:35 | 1031519 Misean
Misean's picture

Buy gold and silver.....

um...that's it....

Why would people en masse need the "investment community" then?

Kinda why the fraud of fiat money and perpetual inflation was created in the first place.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:47 | 1031783 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Never mind the man behind the curtain!


It's like when your kid wants the latest plastic piece of crap toy, so you buy it, but then you have to get all accessories and extras that are sold seperately. Same deal. They create an imaginary world that looks fantastic and create a whole economy around servicing it. They call it 'adding value' I believe.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:36 | 1031522 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

american anger building over public employee union benefits

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:08 | 1031663 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

This anger over public employee benefits is being stirred up by the same folks who fucked over the private citizens.  They take everything from people in the private sector, then say "look at how good the public employees have it.  Why should they have it when you don't?" The right question is, why don't private employees have the same rights, benefits, and collective bargaining as public employees.  What a fucking scam!!

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:46 | 1031930 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Well said!

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 01:03 | 1032178 lawrence1
lawrence1's picture

Ditto, well said!
Given ten years of
high performance by PMs, it is obvious that many
"professional" managers are simply staying away from PMs. I suspect pressure from the Fed and the whole financial establishment which is making fortunes thru fiat "financial instruments." They participate in and support the largest criminal fraud ever carried out in the history of Western civilization.
Give them credit for the criminals they are.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 01:07 | 1032181 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Why don't they have the same benefits?  Because only someone with no interest in the matter would negotiate such that those benefits are promised to the party on the other side of the table.  And since, in the private sector, the party on the other side of the table from you almost always has some real interest in keeping your compensation down, they aren't going to placidly okay gold plated pension plans. 

Be honest.  There've been people like Howie Carr at the Boston Herald writing for years about the ridiculous pensions being promised to members of gov't employee unions.  If you never saw anyone complain before then you simply didn't read much of a variety of points of view.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 01:37 | 1032216 Creed
Creed's picture




Wed, 03/09/2011 - 01:46 | 1032234 Creed
Creed's picture

Bullshit pard.





Wed, 03/09/2011 - 08:33 | 1032438 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

How about when there is no money left to outsource the militarys rear-echelon and we have to initiate a draft?  You realize that the REMF jobs are outsourced at cost of about 4 to 1 over a draftee?

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:36 | 1031526 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

I looked at the yahoo page about the gut putting 85% of his money into mutual bonds , you just cannot fix stupid

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:41 | 1031538 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Uh, just a ?, but what is a 'mutual bond'?

Might need to know next time I go to a tavern.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:44 | 1031558 Misean
Misean's picture

Guts are brave, but ain't got no brains. Probably meant James instead of mutual.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:41 | 1031540 gimli
Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:42 | 1031550 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Heard that. 'Unstable Market'.  Leaves him free to predator what he sees fit.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:53 | 1031594 boooyaaaah
boooyaaaah's picture

Poor hedge funds --- after all that stock manipulation

All that naked shorting Madoff exemption borrowed from the prime broker

Ronald Reagan Quotes
To sit back hoping that someday, some way, someone will make things right is to go on feeding the crocodile, hoping he will eat you last - but eat you he will.
Ronald Reagan

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:06 | 1031658 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

we could use some reagan wisdom today

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:10 | 1031676 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

Reagan was a total shithead who started this whole devolution... wisdom...what a fucking joke

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:32 | 1031749 mynhair
mynhair's picture

and Obama is a fucking genius, right?  Moron.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:07 | 1031971 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

You seem to be logically challenged.  Just because Reagan was an idiot doesn't mean that Obama is a genius.  They are/were both puppets.  And puppets are necessarily idiots.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:40 | 1031770 boooyaaaah
boooyaaaah's picture

I will believe Obama when he calls a radical Muslim

A Radical Muslim

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:02 | 1031955 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Can I call them fucking scumbags, is that o.k. ?

They kill in the name of Islam, Lie in the name of Islam, they fucking read the bottom of the coffee cups / fortune telling. Witch Doctors • Egyptian Magic. Hash, opium whores ...

Anything goes in the global conquest for allah, pure evil.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:12 | 1031980 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

It is much better to kill in the name of Jesus or YHWH.  Ever noticed the similarity between Yahweh, Allah, and Jehovah?  Maybe someone should time travel back and kill Abraham before he had any offspring.

OK, you may call them fucking scumbags if you want.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:43 | 1032024 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Jesus = Love.


Can't find one bad thing in his teaching.


Now the Catholic Church is a den of vipers as I have stated many times. And many people have done shitty things in his name. But if you read just his words, nothing bad, no debt, do unto others as you want done to you. Turn the other cheek, no sex before marriage, treat kids like angels that they are, no killing, no stealing, pride, keeping up with the joneses, gambling ect ... 


The USA and the world would be much better off if they only listened to him.


We have 12 year old girls walking around like stripper whores and the fucking mess we have now since the baby boomers tossed the moral issue in the trash, they wanted free love, drugs and look what we have now .... The USA is a moral shit hole the destruction of the family model through divorce ect ..... Praise the liberal fucking scum bags !!!

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 00:24 | 1032104 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Well, Spalding, I am with you 100% on this one!  You might be interested to know that EVERYWHERE I go (overseas) I see the same thing happening, a baseness that is repugnant.  A few years ago I was attending a wedding in Peru (which used to be a really socially conservative society), I saw a young lady (15 maybe?) all tarted up like she was ready for the streets, dressed like that in Church for the wedding.

That may be the heart of our problems, the baseness of short-term thinking and related vices.  Christian teachings are very valuable, we can learn from them.  Too bad, like you wrote, that so many vipers infest the religion of peace: Christianity.  It's really sad.

Same in Peru: "The Fathers really ARE fathers."

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 00:58 | 1032165 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

You know Spalding I always had the inclination that you were poor, dumb white trash. Now I know. 

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 02:21 | 1032258 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I have a problem with that no sex before marriage.  Apparently Jesus' mom did too.

Actually, I have a problem with marriage.  Why should someone need to obtain a license from the state or the church to engage in mutually agreeable sexual intercourse?  Because that's sinful?!?  Who made that up?  A bunch of Catholic perverts?  And why would a Protestant go along with that shit?  Is he/she stupid?  (Rhetorical question!)

Why would God/Allah/Jehovah/YHWH invent sex if He/She didn't want everyone to partake in its pleasures?  Answer: "To prolong the species, i.e. Go Forth and Multiply"?

"I do not find in our particular superstition of Christianity one redeeming feature" -- Thomas Jefferson

Thu, 03/10/2011 - 00:35 | 1035526 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Jesus was a secular humanist, enemy of the state, a 'terrorist'.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 02:32 | 1032267 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

well said. The biggest export of USA is not their dollar debts but Hollywood culture to outside world. 

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 08:24 | 1032418 BigJim
BigJim's picture

Jesus may indeed = love, but that hasn't stopped his followers slaughtering people in his name.

Face it: people kill people for personal gain, and they'll use any excuse to justify it. Whether it's Allah, Jesus, Democracy, Patriotism - when you kill someone in anything other than direct self defence you have sinned. And reading history, and looking around the world today... do you have any evidence that Christians are any less inclined to kill than, say, Buddhists?

US Army pastors counselling young soldiers before battle. What a sick joke. If they were really men of Jesus, they'd be advising their brainwashed flock that their souls were in mortal peril and Jesus requires them to immediately desert.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 16:18 | 1033925 spudboy
spudboy's picture

So, Christianity necessarily equates to passivism in response to war? You would benefit from some research into what Christian scholars have been writing about the concept of a "just war" for multiple centuries.

Do you think there is a difference between killing and murder? The Bible indicates that there is a very real difference, as even a very cursory review of its contents would reveal.

Third, it is very sad that some have been murdered in the name of Christ, but it is important to realize that those who did such things were by no means following the teachings of Christ or scripture.

Finally, it is a very tired canard that religion is responsible for the deaths of more people than all wars combined. Here are some stats you may find interesting about how many people were murdered in the 20th century alone by their governments, generally conservatively estimated at between 170 and 200 million in that 100 year time span alone.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:42 | 1031546 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Some "bubble" we have at one third of 1%?

The trolls and PM bashers really look out of touch with reality when confronted with facts like this. The vast majority of the public is NOT in this market at all.  

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:34 | 1031902 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Trustees, directors and officers of pension funds need to be beyond the prudent man, they need to be safe harbored against law suits. The current crop of target date retirement funds offering progressively more bond allocation compared to equities as retirement age draws near. There is no way under heaven these managers will buy stuff that is not sanctioned through Congress as being safe harbored and that certainly precludes a non-dividend paying barberous relic like gold. Even an IRA doesn't allow you take possession of the gold, no matter what. The gold holding came about when Kruggerands were persona non gratiaand the gold interests got the mint to start producing eagles.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 02:59 | 1032229 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Safe? That's a joke. Gold is going to totally outperform any kind of return they have. Silver too.

Such utter and complete bullshit.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:50 | 1031938 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Bay o' swine, as soon  as the rest of the folks are in, I'am gone!! Will not sell the junk dimes though;))

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 04:45 | 1032335 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

When you say 'public' you should look far and wide.

The 'public' in the Mid East and Asia are definitely buying PMs in very large quantities.

The 'public' in the West? Most have been dumbed down so much that they have no idea what their pension is invested in.

A few had the good sense to pay the penalties/taxes and get out before the equities dropped to 666... and even fewer bought PMs with their former 401s...but I suspect that most bought treasury instruments paying less than the inflation rate.

It takes a lot of guts to go out on a limb where few have gone. Congrats to those that had the guts to buy PMs back when...they were swimming against a stream of paper bs.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:42 | 1031547 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Pension Funds are historically run by only the finest and savvy managers.

-AIG Quant 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:41 | 1031548 uno
uno's picture

Yesterday I was talking with my co-worker, sits across from me.  Very intelligent, tutors calculus and advanced math on the side.  I was explaining the thoughts of 'Another' from Kitco's board years ago, I had just re-read them.  He could not understand anyone valuing gold as a currency.  I explained silver's use in medical and electrical applications, still did not get it as a currency.

Another worker also thought I was crazy to hold physical silver.  Oh well what can you do.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:44 | 1031556 mynhair
mynhair's picture

A bullet is DSAF.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:48 | 1031580 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Teachers teach because they can't hack it in the real world.

No common sense but they sure can read from a book.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:18 | 1031613 uno
uno's picture

you can easily see how the public will panic for physical in the next year or so, the premiums are going to be double the spot.

My girlfried is from Vietnam, stuck there after the fall.  She thinks I need to load up on physical a lot more now, she saw firsthand what happens.

Just to be clear, he is not a full time teacher, just does it for extra money, we are full time engineers.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:16 | 1031694 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

The can also run entire administrations, lecture people on what they should do and think, then reverse position entirely when they realize their text books were written by other dumb-ass observers (because the do-ers were to busy getting sh*t done, of course).

What a joke. 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:43 | 1031552 cougar_w
cougar_w's picture

No it's okay, you see Von Bernankstein will just print more gold.

Oh ... wait ...

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 09:13 | 1032443 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  There are working on it at Fermilab.... got to get the cost down to less that $200,000,000 an oz though...

p + Pt_78 ->  Au_79 + n


For the science and humor impaired, /sarc

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:44 | 1031554 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Cash on the sidelines ...drum roll please... FOR PRECIOUS METALS!  Maria says alla cash on the sidelines is for stocks! Ha!

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:21 | 1031711 Clockwork Orange
Clockwork Orange's picture

The cash will not be used for precious metals since a) the federales do not want more purchasers of the metals, and b) they have likely hoarded most of it for themselves.

The cash will be used for the ensuing mandate that all US retirement accounts must hold a certain percentage of Treasuries. 

See, the jokes just keep getting better:  the "replacement buyer" for Treasuries once the Fed stops purchasing them after QE2 (on your behalf, of course, using the future production of you and your progeny!) , will be ... drum roll ... YOU!!! In your retirement account.  Mandated. For your benefit, and all.

Ha!!!  Too funny to invent isn't it?!   Coming soon to a retirement account near you.

Get your pitchforks ready. 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:00 | 1031820 David449420
David449420's picture

So, how much is that per month? Is it enought to replace what the current monitization is providing? I don't know, does anyone have those numbers? 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:15 | 1031857 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture


I know it in my gut you are right.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:39 | 1031915 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Clockwork

And THAT is one of the main reasons I got rid of my IRA in late 2008 (paying the penalty and taxes).  Now the money is mine, and yes, some of it went into gold.

Argentina seized the private pensions a few years ago because it was the last big pot of money left for their .gov to steal.  How many big pots of money are available here for our .gov to steal...?

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 04:50 | 1032338 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

CO... Nice to see that you see what is coming.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 08:32 | 1032432 BigJim
BigJim's picture

"After all", our 'representatives' will say, "your retirement and security are backstopped by the US government, so it's only right and proper that you backstop the US government in return!"

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:45 | 1031557 boooyaaaah
boooyaaaah's picture

So --- the Fed can increase interest rates -- and it doesn't have to be gradual. Say up to 5 - 10% on the 30 year.

Then the pension funds will have to think twice about strerile gold -- gold does not go forth and multiply.

And the Fed --- no slouch when it comes to --- trickery could use qe3 or qe4 to sop up that excess gold. At a very reasonable price say 1,ooo to 8oo.

And then we start all over again. But the availability of gold when qe6 and qe7 kick in may not be there.

Dang it's hard to beat the house.




Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:48 | 1031576 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Don't need no Fed to raise interest rates; that's what vigilantes are for.

We be making out fine in EU, to date.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:15 | 1031688 SuperRay
SuperRay's picture

the point of gold is that it can't multiply, unless you consider the exponential power of fiat's impact on the price.  Keep printing, and gold at 8,000 will be easy, especially when it costs $100 to buy a loaf of bread.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 04:52 | 1032341 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

"Dang it's hard to beat the house."

Not at all. Buy physical and hold it... you will definitely beat the house... tune out all the bs propaganda/Fed jawboning while the fur is flying.

That patience is a virtue cannot be overstated.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:45 | 1031560 Exposer of Inte...
Exposer of Internet Shills's picture

Haven't you heard?

The MoneyPowers that be just remind the hedge managers that they have some fine children (wink wink) would be a shame if something were to happen to them (wink wink)

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:46 | 1031568 Rainman
Rainman's picture

That could double as a Fed pie chart too ...just to save ink.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:49 | 1031582 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

certain tribal members are licking their collective chops too..........

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:48 | 1031584 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The way NEM and others have been acting, they won't show up on the fabled "Investors Riverboater's Daily" for months, perhaps years.

Gold will need to go to $3,000 before the price of the metal gets high enough for these miserable mining companies to offset:

- Skyrocketing oil prices

- Massive dilution from secondaries and/or buying other overvalued mining companies near the top of the market

- Incompetent management

- Massive OTC Derivatives foisted upon the balance sheets by nefarious Canadian investment banks and chop shops.

So I don't expect any major participation by the large pension funds until the price action improves.

Right now, there is far more money to be made in the banking stocks as the economy recovers.  At least that is what the 10,000 money manglers that run all the big funds are eyeballing.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:53 | 1031602 mynhair
mynhair's picture

You really need to get your spec on, and play AVL.

Why you are so enamoured by momos, is beyond me.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:00 | 1031635 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

You wonder why Robo can't pick any winning PM stocks? He doesn't seem to have that problem with other sectors. He's always way ahead on those.

You'd think he'd listen to the advice of some of the posters here who are very successful in mining stocks.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:05 | 1031655 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Methinks that if it ain't a top holding in at least 150 hedgies, it don't count in RT's world.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:59 | 1031956 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Bay, Thank god he did not listen to me as I got skull fucked on Hecla.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 00:39 | 1032137 plata pura
plata pura's picture

EPA is hl's friend

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:40 | 1031850 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ mynhair, AVL and MCP have been GREAT specs, no doubt.

Re Robot, hey look, he offers up an opinion or an observation from a TRADER"S perspective.  He rarely editorializes.  I like reading his comments.  And he may be right about the mining stocks.

Actually, I too would like to get Robot's read on AVL, what a ride that onen has had!  I wish I had thought of buying it when it became available here in the USA.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:00 | 1031632 Rainman
Rainman's picture

hahaha...Investors Riverboater's Daily. Brilliant, Robo.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:06 | 1031648 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

the old catfish mouth robo uber bull bear wannabe once again talks with forked tongue. notice when she lists the stocks she owns none of them are bank stocks, even as she posts one comment after the other on the merits of bank stocks. indeed, how many times has she told us her holdings are vz, t, mo, dd & hd. but no banking stocks.

find it odd? me neither. as said before she doesn't take her own advice so why ought anybody else.

meanwhile, as she would say, we are to believe that the catfish made so much money she was able to retire, even as she writes as if she's surprised that in a rising oil price environment that the miners are having trouble meeting expectations. that's miners econ 101. so while she talks down the miners she continues to hold them in her ira.

as said before, she doesn't take her own advice and sell her miners, so why should anybody else.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:08 | 1031662 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Most of the BS is after the fact.  A few have been worth jumping on.

If the hedgies don't have it, jump on it.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:28 | 1031889 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

Nothing junkable here (IMHO).

My faith is in Ben and Barack.  So long as real int rates stay neg, being long the metal itself and then jumping on evolving earnings upgrade stocks (think GG) should be a winning strategy.

Eventually even GDXJ/GLDX will go ballistic in that scenario.  And as Warren Buffett might have said, the more time the cognoscenti have to accumulate (Buying TFD) the right auric/PM stuff, the better. So, no rush.  Months/years fine w me.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 02:54 | 1032283 gwar5
gwar5's picture

SLW has a nice business model, pull up that chart.

CEO: says not even thinking of hedging silver until it hits $50.



Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:50 | 1031593 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Shit. You don't want to wish for $5000 gold because the whole thing falls apart and the WWIII will break out. In the end, everyone suffers. 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:55 | 1031612 monopoly
monopoly's picture

This is all well and good and if it plays out, well, bonus time. But most of us are just buying physical on a dip, a little gold and silver here, a little gold and silver there. It is adding up after a few years and I will just keep doing it as funds become available. Just have a reputable dealer that you trust and know.

This is not going to blow up next week or next month....It IS going to blow up though.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:43 | 1031924 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $1425

Buying a little here, a little there through the years or decades, and it does add up.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 05:00 | 1032343 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture


'buying a little here, a little there'...

That IS my 401K, IRA and retirement account... The time to start was 1971 when Nixon defaulted and closed the gold window.

The next best time to start is now.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:58 | 1031615 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Maybe natural selection is still in play.

If one cant correctly comprehend the world/danger around one's self.

Then nature will eliminate you.

I never considered it in a financial sense before.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 20:57 | 1031619 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Here's a question for Mr. Casey:

With so much competition heating up right now to obtain the most exclusive summer rentals at The Hamptons this season....

And with so many fund managers desperate to "make their year".....

If the gold market participation was so small, why doesn't a whale fund like TIAA-CREF just step up and start buying giant blocks of these XAU stocks hand over fist?  They could single-handedly cause a gigantic squeeze and make huge profits.

They won't do it because:

- Much easier money to be made by buying Fed-sponsored, TPTB-supported, blue-blood banking stocks like JPM, which has way outperformed NEM, KGC, AEM, etc. this year.

- Too tough to buy and ramp up a sector that is the most hated in the investment community

- Why fight City Hall, who despises this group and will use the "Infinite Firehose of Fiat" to surpress the price of these at all costs?

Short Answer:  A hell of a lot easier to make money elsewhere.  No need to beat your head against the wall.  Just buy JPM.  Almost at a 52-week high.  Why fight it?

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:00 | 1031625 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Why buy it?  It's crap.  Need some NFLX?


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:03 | 1031637 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

But, but, but ....


Spalding said to buy JPM during the " bears video's are going to crash JPM gang bang "....


At $ 36.00 - 37 .... A 25% move. Gold like returns in only 3 -4 months Lol

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:29 | 1031670 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Gold hit an all time high London fix yesterday @ $1437 you buffoon. Silver is up 109% YOY too douchebag. Stay with JPM though. It suits you well.


Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:19 | 1031693 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

SM: that chart looks like it could be ripe for a rollover... you a buyer here?

Bonne Chance.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 23:49 | 1032029 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

@ Robo

a 10 year chart of JPM would be more indicative of a return for a pension fund as they tend to buy and hold.

JPM 03/06/2001   $47.96

JPM 03/08/2011   $46.40

not very good. and in real terms ur down about 30%.

let's look at newmont mining:

NEM 03/06/2001   $16.68

NEM 03/08/2011   $53.00



Wed, 03/09/2011 - 02:33 | 1032266 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yes, and a company like Goldcorp at $3 in 2001 and now is almost $50. 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:17 | 1031698 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

that's right folks you heard it once again from the old catfish mouth. it's easy to make money in the market. all you have to do is buy jpm just like the old catfish. but wait, the old catfish mouth doesn't own jpm, at least not as far as we know since she hasn't told us she bought it like she did several times with vz, mo, t, dd and hd.

but inquiring minds might also be amused to know that it was just this past weekend the catfish mouth regaled us with how she was itching (i think that was the word) to short the market. and of course there were the prior two contributions where she was looking for a top.

today, we're told she's going long because it's easy to make money on the long side.

so i guess in this nanosecond she's advising not to fight the fed. but stick around. in a post or two she'll be telling as to short with both hands, even as she sits frozen like a deer in the headlights with her long positions in the miners and vz, mo, t, dd and hd.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:20 | 1031707 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Good the momoPomo til the Bernank sends signals it will run out of gas as projected. So far they send out contrary signals from various governor mouths, which is very clever of them. They know they have to take some fat out of equities and PMs.....a perfect crisis strategy will be the gameplan for QE3 methinx. A see-the-economy-needs-it-play would chill down the heat. Keeping ear always to  ground is vital.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 01:18 | 1032198 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Over at King World News, Jim Rickards has contended, a couple times now, that the Fed never said that QE2 would absolutely stop in June 2011 and that it would absolutely include no more than $600 billion of bond purchases.  He says that if you parse their statements carefully you see that there's no promised deadline or maximum amount.  He thinks they'll just keep going as they are now without any particular announcement of a new plan.  In other words, there won't be QE3 or QE4.  It'll just be QE2 forever.

Wed, 03/09/2011 - 05:13 | 1032345 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Fred... Exactly right. Rickards is paying attention and one of the few that is.

I don't buy Chris Martenson's 'the Fed may suspend QE for a time and then restart it' theory. Chris is right that doing so would drive dollars out of ES and commodities for a time and strengthen the dollar short term... but the negative consequences of driving down real estate further/driving unemployment higher would be horrific.

Rickards has said that we will see a currency linked to gold...after it becomes obvious to all that the dollar is toast... I believe he is correct.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:24 | 1031725 putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Brother in law cant sell house in North Fork. Bought house in Watermill regardless. No money worries. Disgusting JPM MM. But he is a nice guy.

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 21:56 | 1031811 Dr. Gonzo
Dr. Gonzo's picture

I don't know. I've made a shit ton money in gold, silver, and mining shares. Never made shit in any other part of the market. Think I'll stick to what's working for me til I make so much friggin fiat that I can afford to piss it away in equities. 

Tue, 03/08/2011 - 22:34 | 1031907 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

I agree.  I got out of all financials early in 2007.  Made $$ on the short side in 2008.  Capitulated and bt JPM last week, having flipped it a few wks earlier.  Buying at $46 (equiv to a "real" price of $23 or so in Au-centric terms) may be cynical, but what alternative has BB left us?

TPTB want to take PM higher.  So it prob will be, till they want to crash it again.

NFLX should be done for, but not IBM/JPM.  They're too important to the wizards behind the curtains to die that fast. 

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