Guest Post: Economists’ Raised Expectations For The Sept Chicago-ISM Report May Be Too High

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/29/2009 16:14 -0500

Guest post submitted by John Bougearel of Structural Logic

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by Hephasteus
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:19
#82866

The CFNAI is a better report. It says Bernanke lied about recession likely over. It's been printing deep recession for months and months and months and continues to do so.

http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/cfnai.cfm

by Pizza Delivery Man
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:46
#82885

If Bernanke speaks it's a lie, misconception, or manipulation.

Never pay the slightest attention to what a company president ever says about his stock.
-Bernard Baruch

And for Tyler(s)

-Millions saw the apple fall, but Newton was the one who asked why.

Thanks for bringing this all mainstream. I have friends who approach me with these topics and I know their thoughts, in someway, originated here. It's good that people are starting to ask questions and this blog/website is a large part of that.

by Miles Kendig
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 19:26
#83103

+1.

What is the tip for a delivery to London these days PDM? hehe

by john bougerel
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 19:56
#83150

Pizza man,

I love the quip that millions saw the apple fall, only Newton was the first to ask why!

by handsfree
on Wed, 09/30/2009 - 01:35
#83451

Congress has long ago given up all moral authority on this issue. But, go figure. When you lay down with whores, expect to wake up with STD's.

Goldman and Bank of Amerika run the markets along with Geithner, and beagle boy Ben. There is no free markets, only welfare capitalism and socialism for capitalism.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www.. hat tip: finance news & opinion updated daily

by Lionhead
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:35
#82884

Any wonder why "consumers remain deeply depressed?" Government & business leaders routinely lie, unemployment rising with benefits running out, possible war coming in middle East, fraudulent, insolvent banks being bailed out by taxpayers, stock & bond markets manipulated & operating in a parallel universe, MSM "containing" news dissemination, unemployment for young adults over 50%, Congress unresponsive to voters threatening to ram down unwanted legislation. Depression level unemployment in Spain, unprecedented national debt with possible tax hikes and inflation coming, etc. Yes, folks, this really raises my level of confidence in the economy.

Blue skies with green shoots & happy trails to all...

by Veteran
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:54
#82907

you mean "extension of current bullshit" war in middle east, right?

by Lionhead
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 17:00
#82919

Yes, the unlimited extension where countless lives of military & civilians are lost in wars that can't be won (Afghanistan) along with tons of treasure from our unlimited resources 4th estate, the FED. Remember, debt is wealth; we're all rich!

by Miles Kendig
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 19:29
#83106

Current bullshit.. yep.

War? Nawww. A war is when the WHOLE of society goes to war, not just us 1%ers.

by john bougerel
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 20:00
#83160

Lionhead,

I don't think that is a lie to espouse or cheer a headline number.

It is the spin that they put on it which is intended to mislead that is duplicitous or disingenuous. MSM is glossing over the consumer, who is getting trampled over in this so-called "green-shoot" recovery. In fact, the recovery is killing him. It's bad medicine for the consumer, great medicine for the banksters, and great medicine for big corporations that can downsize to 40-50% of their workforce to survive and goose earnings reports

by Anal_yst
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:38
#82889

The problem with taking the under is that you're david fighting goliath; bernanke and the bulls are seemingly intent on the belief that if they keep saying we're in the clear it'll become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:48
#82901

david beat goliath, in case you missed that little tidbit.

by nope-1004
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:55
#82910

I believe it was David that slew Goliath. At some point, the brains of the dinosaur are too small, too inept, to dictate the actions of the body. And so it goes with Bernanke-ism.

by Miles Kendig
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 19:31
#83110

Never bet against the quiet one who observes all and is called to the action of necessity.

by john bougerel
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 20:02
#83162

Analyst

I like the david/goliath analogy, for the most part I do not play david in my approach. When it is clear the forecasts by economist are apt to be wrong on either the upside or downside, it is my job to point the error of their ways out.

by SDRII
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:45
#82896

EPS preview -

Nike: beat on lower tax rate and lower SGA (job cuts)

Darden: beats on lower revenue

by Anonymous
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 16:48
#82902

I'd like to know what the fukk they're manufacturing and for whom ??

A guns and ammo ramp methinx.

by Miles Kendig
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 19:34
#83113

Better to reload your own anyway

by putbuyer
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 17:06
#82924

I walk into a bar is Assville. 100 women inside and i'm the only guy. I should be getting 5 numbers, but the bookies bet I only get 2 (taken on some debt). I get 3, so I beat the street. LOL

by msorense
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 17:17
#82936

As a manufacturer myself who gives orders to companies in Chicago, I too would expect the ISM to improve in September. But as an uber-bear, I expect this uptrend to be short lived. Already things are starting to get quieter around here and I know everything is running on printed money. Something's gonna give soon - be patient my fellow bears.

by putbuyer
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 19:08
#83081

People are on the brink. In Connecticut, a woman robbed 6 banks in 6 days. Yesterday was the last as she got caught. Manufacturing is dying fast and blue states like mine don't give a damn. Peter-Paul just moved to Virginia because my state would not give them a tax break. They left and guess what - now no taxes. Virginia cut them a deal. It was a sad day for all of us. Peter Paul invented the delicious Almond Joy and Mounds candies. He was completely blind when he opened his factory. Wow! what a great country - when you can be blind and still fulfill a dream.

by Miles Kendig
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 19:48
#83138

Same same Milton Hershey. A sad day when that company went international corporation in a big way. Killing the company.

by john bougerel
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 20:06
#83169

msorense,

Thank you for your input. On balance what you suggest is that the economists may be right to forecast a higher month over month. My point for mkt participants is that this makes it that much easier for the number to disappoint. As traders, we have to be ready for market reactions not just to upside surprises (like the 3 M&A's announced over the weekend) but disappointment as well.

by Anonymous
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 20:10
#83180

Living in Texas, I have to say that there is such a thing as Presidential Preference as you don't need a line item in a spending bill to make the political spoils of war worth the effort. Say what you want about '41-'43, but those 20 years of Presidential (direct or indirect) proximity were beneficial.

Now we have a President beholdant to the "Chicago Political Machine Model" and enough "stimulus" to make a sloth run a 4.4 40. It's so hilarious that I can't seem to find the movie Eddie Murphy starred in called "The Distinguished Gentleman".

As just about everything that is still left to be made in America comes out of Chicago, in one form or another, I would look to the Chicago ISM as the new standard and the new beneficiary of Commander in Chief largess.

Were gonna miss it here in Tex-Arkana. Perry in 2012!

by handsfree
on Wed, 09/30/2009 - 01:35
#83442

Intelligent service provision to customers to ensure and improve quality of service around algorithm-selection, execution quality, market structure, technical advice etc.

Goldman and Bank of Amerika run the markets along with Geithner, and beagle boy Ben. There is no free markets, only welfare capitalism and socialism for capitalism.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www.. hat tip: finance news & opinion updated daily

by deadhead
on Tue, 09/29/2009 - 21:20
#83279

John...always enjoy the Structural Logic view.

how about an update on 3 peaks and a dome?

i see the ellioticians have pretty much called p3 but they are struggling with it....also, fib day 144 is tomorrow (wed 9-30).

thank you.

by handsfree
on Wed, 09/30/2009 - 01:33
#83423

Good point here

Goldman and Bank of Amerika run the markets along with Geithner, and beagle boy Ben. There is no free markets, only welfare capitalism and socialism for capitalism.

good articles; good articles 4 slow news day ..http://www.. hat tip: finance news & opinion updated daily

by shargash
on Wed, 09/30/2009 - 09:06
#83596

Great call, John :)

Don't be such a stranger around here.

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