Guest Post: The End Of The Gold Bull Market

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Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:00 | 361583 Mako
Mako's picture

I expect huge bounces in all indexes including gold and in both directions.  As far as inflation, I am sorry it's gone.  Gold will trade on two factors 1.) destruction of the system 2.) general uplift as generated by the rest of the market(ie bounces within the cycle).   By the time this is all over you will see swings in gold of $100s in hours.

Eventually the credit system will collapse, with it production will collapse, then you will have decades and decades of negative or near zero growth, production will come to a stand still. 

If you think you are just going to cash at your gold and live like a King you are in for a rude awakening. 

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:04 | 361607 anarkst
anarkst's picture

"Eventually the credit system will collapse, with it production will collapse, then you will have decades and decades of negative or near zero growth, production will come to a stand still."

If I were you, I'd take it a day at a time. 

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:17 | 361641 Mako
Mako's picture

Eventually you will have to take it a hour at a time, then it will have to be minute at a time... the ones that get liquidated will be taking it seconds at a time until their seconds are gone.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:31 | 361669 spartan117
spartan117's picture

Mako,

Been following your posts for awhile now and appreciate what you have to offer.  Do you see a timeline in your "The Road" scenario?

God, I hope I don't have to eat my thumbs.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 18:40 | 361776 Mako
Mako's picture

Could be one day if the right derivative goes poof, or slow death for decades, eventually the financial system you know of right now will not exist this time.  This was is magnitudes larger than the previous peak wave. 

If I were to throw a wild guess out there, end of 2012 we will probably not be talking about much of this.   I don't think that will be the bottom, the bottom will be decades in the making.  IMHO

 

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 01:25 | 362322 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

We love and respect Mr. Casey's opinion.

However, Mr. Casey can only make money during fluctuations and uncertainty. Gold hovering at $250 or at $1250 does not give a feeling of uncertainty.

Thus, people will not read his columns.

Nonetheless, many of us do need his opinion when uncertain. (Circular logic, but true) we are mere humans

 

  

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 20:22 | 361914 trav7777
trav7777's picture

What the fuck would the point of cash be in such an apocalypse, Eeyore??

You zombie apocalyptics make me laugh; you are nuttier than the most ardent goldbugs.

By the way, ZERO GROWTH does not equal PRODUCTION COLLAPSE.

YOU are the problem, because YOU cannot see past fuckin paper and credit!  The world does NOT need to freaking END because of line items on an accounting ledger.  We still have 80+mbpd of oil, the lights will come on, the sun will still come up.  GFD, life goes on, even in Argentina during a collapse, even in Zimbabwe, even in Beirut during the civil war.

Christ almighty all this Douchingerian fretting over the end of goddamned PAPER and ponzis.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 23:37 | 362250 GoodBanker
GoodBanker's picture

Trav, you and Denninger both know that all the gangs in the world will unite and systematically rape and pillage everyone, just as they have longed to do since the days of their ancestors, the Mongols. Mongols vs. Rome = Mongols. Gangs vs. American people = Gangs. See, Denningerian logic at work. In the event of a currency collapse, the gangs will immediately activate their telepathic abilities and communicate as an organized, efficient collective while the rest of us panic in disarray, shooting blindly at our neighbors and school children. Please. Denninger needs to get the hell out of the yuppie bubble he's lived in for the whole of his adult life and experience REAL LIFE. A lot of these "gang bangers" - not the fun kind - are just disenfranchised youth looking to make a buck; few if any of them have ever had to fight for food, and most would be just as perplexed as John Q. Taxpayer if they were forced to enter an upper-middle class neighborhood in search of sustenance.  

Seriously, I get sick to death of the paper bugs CONSTANTLY asserting that the elimination of a medium of exchange less than 40 years into its infancy will result in a global upheavals and nuclear warfare. We're more likely to start a nuke war because we let narcissistic imbeciles have the keys to the ignition, not because the bankers are sticking it to us the same way they have since the days of Abraham. Say it with me, everyone: ARGENTINA. There, doesn't that feel better? They still eat down there... drink and snort a bit too, if you catch my drift. I would note, however, that they are not universally blessed with an endless supply of $5 lattes, flat screen television sets (though the Chinese STILL trade with them), and Hummer H2s. Big freakin' deal.

I actually do side with Denninger on a number of issues, one of which is the inevitable failure of MANY police forces throughout the country to maintain popular support. Of course, I see this as a result of an impending revulsion with standing authority figures once the public wakes up to a fraction of the crimes perpetrated against them, not as a result of millions of heartless gang members laying waste to anything in their paths.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:19 | 362628 bernorange
bernorange's picture

Argentina got bailed out by the IMF.  Should the dollar collapse, who's going to bail us out?

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 09:46 | 362862 trichotil
Wed, 05/19/2010 - 20:49 | 361974 BumpSkool
BumpSkool's picture

yeah - "production will collapse" .. and with it Gold production too. I'll be on the beach with the Gold nuts  ... livin' it up

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 22:03 | 362108 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Fuck am I ever sick of comments like this.

 

What if you have money that you don't ever plan on spending ? 

If you would need to sell your gold in 6 months to live off of then you are not wealthy enough to own any in the first place. Some people have enough cash to live for a year opr 2 but might actually want to preserve their fortune during a stagflationary depression.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 16:56 | 361591 Whizbang
Whizbang's picture

"The point is, given the choice between dollars and gold, you are far more likely to preserve your wealth over the duration of this crisis with gold."

Wealth? Who the hell has any of that lying around?

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 21:00 | 362005 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

Me.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 23:44 | 362256 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Me too.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 03:55 | 362423 saulysw
saulysw's picture

Hey! I got myself a bottle of Berri Vodka and Absynth ("Green Fairy") and am trying it out. I can see what you are getting at, it makes a potent brew. Strange mix of tastes too. I doubt it will become my favourite, but it is interesting. I think I'll feel the effects by the time glass 3 goes down...at which point you probably won't hear from me as the Captch question will become impossible to solve, even with a calculator.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:01 | 361603 repo 105
repo 105's picture

The lack of anything hardly at all in the slight bit negative being posted or written regarding Gold throws up a huge red flag. I remember looking at building lots in Water Color on 30A for $1.2 million no where close to the beach. They ain't making no more of them I was told. As luck had it, I passed, way too much good news. Let the flaming begin.....

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:23 | 361656 Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

 You just aren't looking in the right places - check out John Nadler on Kitco.com for a nice aggregation of daily gold bashing - I wish that pussy would open up a comments section - I agree with your post though - it worth the effort to find contrary views to build perspective.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:38 | 361681 akak
akak's picture

Jon Nadler is the quintessence of arrogant, disingenuous and dishonest bankster-associated sociopathy.  Read him at your own disgust, and trust anything he has to say at your own financial (and moral) peril.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:58 | 361723 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

John Nadler? ha ha, he's probably in here trolling around bashing gold.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 19:21 | 361769 akak
akak's picture

Why not?  He's already been outed by many different individuals, trolling and posting viciously anti-gold posts in a number of other forums, notably on MarketWatch and in Kitco's own forum --- before he was banned by his own company's moderators, LOL!

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 08:09 | 362604 e_goldstein
e_goldstein's picture

Ha! Bagdad Bob (Nadler) flagged your posts as junk.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 15:55 | 363744 akak
akak's picture

Hey Jon "Baghdad Bob" Nadler, I've got a news flash for you --- the enemy tanks are rolling into your city of paper ponzi corruption, and they are made of GOLD!

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 22:07 | 362118 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Shorting gold was the hot topic on Fast Monkey today

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:06 | 361613 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

If gold goes down enough to make my gold only 5% of my wealth (I am about 6% now), then I'll just buy more.

Insurance against .gov and best wealth preserver.

Eventually all going to my kid (grandkids?).

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:06 | 361614 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

trolls here?

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:17 | 361645 ratava
ratava's picture

Gold bitches!

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:53 | 361712 goldfreak
goldfreak's picture

troll bitches?

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:09 | 361625 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 


Limited Gold Sales


Limited sales of 12,965,649 fine troy ounces of gold that was acquired by the Fund after the

second amendment of the Articles of Agreement may take place on the basis of prices in the

market. A key element of the new income model is the eventual creation of an endowment

with the profits from gold sales.

http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2010/041410.pdf

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:24 | 361661 jomama
jomama's picture

for someone who loathes gold as much as you do, you never miss a 'gold' topic to type in your 2¢ worth...

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 18:02 | 361733 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I do try to post information that almost all can find useful...

 

As opposed too.... Bitch, Whine and / or whatever it is you offer...

 

Instead of bashing me sharing useful information, how about you be a sport and read something and share any interesting facts you may find... so that the community here can benefit, if we all read and share then maybe we can be better versions of ourselves for the  knowledge gained?

 

Do you know how many Metric Tonnes of Gold the IMF plans on flooding the markets with? while the markets are not at $1,250 an oz.?

 

***** "On September 18, 2009, the IMF's Executive Board approved gold sales strictly limited to 403.3 metric tons, representing one eighth of the Fund's total holdings." *****

http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/goldfaqs.htm

 

See sharing can be fun and helpful to your fellow man... I hope that you, can better get into the spirit of things... for the benefit of all!

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 18:39 | 361778 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Oh look. The IMF is going to pull the 400 metric tons of gold out of it's ass trick again. I'd lease that but gold is heavy and the mileage would suck. I wonder if they do parties. Everyone should see the latest tired old IMF stupid pet tricks.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 20:59 | 362002 BumpSkool
BumpSkool's picture

+100 ..right on man ... moreover cut the "flood the market" drama...IMF sells zero IN the market...they sell 100% OFF the market in private sales

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 21:42 | 362075 geminiRX
geminiRX's picture

The IMF has gold my ass. Sprott offered to buy the last lot that went on sale and the IMF refused the offer. Hmmm....wonder why?

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 18:49 | 361792 Selah
Selah's picture

Over half of that Gold was sold to India, Sri Lanka, and Mauritius. Sprott wanted to buy the remaining amount but his money was refused as well as that of another bidder.

They wanted to take possession of the Gold, rather than just get a receipt.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 20:49 | 361975 Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

and thats before the issue as to whether the IMF has any gold beyond that 400 tons and is just a ledger entry.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 22:10 | 362122 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Hey wise guy, the IMF gold sales is what sparked the previous rally to $1225.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 23:44 | 362255 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

I doubt the IMF has any gold. The only thing they're selling is lies and BS.

They can prove me wrong.  They can do an independent audit/assay of their "holdings".

 

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 18:57 | 361803 mitack
mitack's picture

Fuck off yomama, you are fooling noone.

JW, thanks for the insight and pls dont feed the trolls.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 19:07 | 361816 Apocalypse Now
Apocalypse Now's picture

You and JW are fooling no one.  Troll.

Thu, 05/20/2010 - 00:34 | 362294 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

How is my posting sourced and sited material "fooling anyone"?

 

What am I fooling people for? and how by offering information to what I see as a continuing manipulation of pricing for Gold by the powers that bee... (pun intended, don't get stung)

 

Are you in politics? double talk, trash talk without making a point of any kind? Go suck Palin's dick! Pro-Lifer!

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:12 | 361628 LeBalance
LeBalance's picture

Does a sane man answer using language like this:

"A. In a nutshell, the monetary inflation, quantitative easing, and insane spending of the U.S. government, emulated by countries around the globe, have set the table for a large serving of currency depreciation down the road.

Once that depreciation begins to appear in the form of price appreciation, we’ll look to trade our greenbacks for more in the way of tangibles – probably more gold… maybe real estate in a good location, location, location… maybe more silver… maybe deep-value energy stocks… maybe antiques… maybe some of all of the above."

Once it begins to appear that is when we should jump? /roflmao!/

Buying real estate (an asset which has been road pizzad!)? /oh my!/

Maybe antiques? lol, maybe pocket pool?

This is a professional? /////we'll can you, Doug.  Thanks, have a great day.  Door's over there.  Have a great flight.  Nice talking to the wife.  Sure I got your card.  Don't mention it.  Yup, will talk soon.////

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:43 | 361690 akak
akak's picture

You know, LeBalance, precisely the same thoughts went through my head while reading the above portions of the "interview".

I may not be a Wall Street trader, but even I know that the wisest and most profitable moves are only made BEFORE they become the obviously correct ones to Joe Sixpack!  Casey is asking us to make sure that we close the gate AFTER the horse has bolted from the barn.  And THIS is supposed to be serious investment advice?

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 19:04 | 361809 mitack
mitack's picture

Joe6Pack will never figure out what is going on.

He will only "feel" that something has gone wrong

when he cant get his, well- 6Pack...

If you equal yourself with J6P go find another forum.

On a separate note I agree with your stance that

this "research" stinks...

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:19 | 361644 Goods
Goods's picture

This interview is utterly useless. We need to ask Leo what he thinks.

Q:So Leo is gold a good place to put your money in?

Thanks for quoting me, and as far I can tell, calm is restored and the markets are heading up again. Not good for gold.

Q:And how will this calm be restored?

calm will be restored when the trillion dollars starts being felt in the financial system.

Q:So which sector would you recommend investors put their money in?

Buy Chinese solars now!

 

Q:But is China a safe place to invest? Jim Chanos has called it the mother of all bubbles, with their wasteful spending and zombie malls.

 

There is no more China and America, it's Chimerica. Fortune 500 companies are deeply embedded in China. And China still needs the US consumer to grow their middle class.

 

 

Q: So China is the future?

Buy Chinese solars now! Thank me later!

And thank you Leo for sharing your precious time with us today!

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:46 | 361694 akak
akak's picture

LOL!

But you forgot the gratuitous photos of scantily-clad women to conclude your Leo interview!

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 17:47 | 361695 akak
akak's picture

(double post --- damned slow website!)

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 19:07 | 361815 mitack
mitack's picture

The website is just fine.

Thats just your junkbox full of worms and malware...

 

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 19:33 | 361836 akak
akak's picture

Actually, this ZeroHedge site crashes and locks-up on a daily basis.  I'm not sure why, but it can be impossible to get on for 20 or 30 minutes at a time lately.

Wed, 05/19/2010 - 21:23 | 362042 DosZap
DosZap's picture

akak,

ditto's......................crashes, offline for sometimes hours.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!