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Guest Post: Extend And Pretend - A Guide To The Road Ahead

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Gordon T. Long of Tipping Points

Extend And Pretend - A Guide To The Road Ahead

It will likely surprise you but like a trolley car we are now locked into economic tracks that determine our financial destination. Unfortunately, it isn’t a place anyone would choose knowingly other than possibly the Bilderberg elite.

Financially and economically we are lurching along, rocking from side to side with the occasional unexpected jarring flash crash jolt. But unlike a trolley line, for some reason no one seems to know what the destination is. Many are asking but few are willing to tell.

This road is well travelled and documented if you were to take the time to study the maps and not rely on the happy face media spin doctors for directions. Since the route of the current global economic path is now locked in, we need to either accept the ride or hastily exit. I’m up from my seat and headed for the door. What are you going to do?

HISTORICAL FACT: A Financial Crisis is almost always followed by an Economic Crisis which is subsequently followed by a Political Crisis.

 

                 FINANCIAL CRISIS     =>    ECONOMIC CRISIS    =>    POLITICAL CRISIS
                      Banking Crisis              Sovereign Debt Crisis             Currency Crisis

 

When the financial crisis arrived in 2008, those who foresaw it in 2007 were not only prepared to capitalize on it, but ready to position for the economic crisis that they knew lay ahead. We are currently still in the midst of an economic crisis evidenced for some time by slowing global trade, unemployment, falling tax revenues and more recently, a sovereign debt crisis.

Have you prepared for the soon to emerge financial opportunities as the Stage 3 - Political Crisis unfolds?

I want to lay out the roadmap as simply and clearly as I can. Some no doubt will dispute it. What the nay-sayers need to fully understand however is that the roadmap, which this is part of, has served me remarkably well and resulted in a highly profitable decade. Maybe even more importantly, it has allowed me to sleep peacefully at night. The market drops for the most part have been ‘buying opportunities’ and market spikes have been excellent exit points.

Knowing the trend and destination has made all the difference.

THE ROAD AHEAD

The soon to unfold political crisis will be marked with beggar-thy-neighbor policies that foster political conflict, a currency crisis which dramatically impacts standards of living and a broad curtailment of entitlement programs that will devastate generations of retiring lower and middle income citizens. We are early in what the future may possibly label as the Age of Rage. Paradyn adjustments in expectations and sense of entitlement lay ahead for those living in the developed G7 democracies.

Let me show you why a Political – Currency Crisis is just as predetermined as the tracks of our trolley ride and will have serious consequences for your investment strategy.

For the full research report with a detailed expansion of the following roadmap: See TIPPING POINTS

THE ROAD AHEAD

EXPLAINING STAGE III

Though we are still in the midst of the full emergence of Stage II, Europe has recently overtaken the US in the rate of the expected, unfolding events.

There is no mistaking the fact that the US has a sovereign crisis as measured by many indicators such as: Debt to GDP, deficit percentage, balance of trade, state, city and local government financial imbalances, underfunded pension plans and excess unfunded entitlement programs. However, relative to Europe, the US is still lagging and therefore is not currently getting the media attention that it will soon receive.

What will mark the beginning of Stage III is a major shift in political policies. In Europe, early signs were witnessed with the European bailout of Greece and the  $1 Trillion Euro “TARP” like program. Both political decisions decisively diverged from the basis upon which the Maastricht Agreement was constitutionally approved. The level and urgency of the crisis forced this structural shift. Though this level of political shift has not yet occurred in the US, it soon will (the ‘Tea Party’ advocates would likely vehemently suggest we are well on our way).

The $61 Trillion unfunded entitlement problem associated with Medicare / Medicaid and Social Security is presently a monster on the door step now that baby boomers are beginning to retire at accelerating rates each month. No longer can the government obscure the true size of annual budget deficits through the use of payroll entitlement payments. State, city and local governments are increasingly in crisis as more and more can no longer fund what Americans have taken for granted as basic necessities such as police, fire, K-12 education and public works.  Without greatly increased and urgently needed tax revenues, these programs will be drastically cut. We read of 100,000 to 300,000 teachers being cut which less than 18 months ago would have been thought unimaginable in America. With 40 million Americans on food stamps, tax revenue deficits are making what is a monumental problem even more intractable. All of this and more will lead to political decisions that will lead to major social unrest and public policy initiatives which will be startling breaks from the past.

I fully expect to see a new $5 Trillion Quantitative Easing (QE) program marking the upcoming shift in the US to Stage III.

This will be what kicks off an accelerating increase in Velocity of Money that many inflations have been expecting. This has the potential to ignite a Minsky Melt-Up (Read: Extend & Pretend: Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up), though definitely not a certainty. The present rate of collapse in MZM, M1, M2  and M3 which supports the deflationists views, which I have held, is the ‘oil in the ointment’. The $5T QE program will be a desperate attempt aimed at reversing this

Massive monetization will eventually lead to a US currency crisis in the US by 2011- 2012.

Europe will continue to accelerate with problems associated with currency pegs and Euro denominated lending finally coming home to roost for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The CEE as the ‘sub-prime” of Europe will be the final catalyst to tip the UK and France over the edge into a sovereign crisis and subsequent major political confrontations. The new government in the UK is already warning the British electorate on an almost daily basis of the gravity of the situation and the degree to which changes in social entitlement expectations will need to change in the near future. Like France they are afraid to be specific – yet!

The US is experiencing a major shift with government employment becoming the primary creator of jobs. The fundamental shift is most evident through a movement towards larger government with more regulation and control.

POLITICAL SHIFT- It will be about choices which this generation has never had to confront.

The political shift is not primarily a shift from right wing to left wing politics as many in the ‘party oriented’ media might suggest or debate.  It is rather a shift that the current generation in western developed nations haven’t witnessed - a shift in direction that is other than left or right and is more about a movement in Economic freedom versus Personal freedom. 

It would make this particular article too long to explain the above Nolan Diagrams to show how and why these changes will occur (I will do so in the next Extend & Pretend series article entitled: “A Matter of National Security” – sign-up). But suffice it to say that there will be clear tell-tales that will emerge.

SIGNALS & TELL TALES

You must be alert to and carefully watch for these tell-tale signals in the not too distant future.

LEGISLATIVE REGULATION

CONCLUSIONS:

Expect the unexpected going forward since markets hate uncertainty and nothing creates more uncertainty than political decision making and policy legislation. Markets will experience increasing levels of volatility with steeper rates of price movement both up and down. Flash Crashes and Flash Dashes will be common as millisecond advantages separate the dynamic hedging winners from losers.

Hard assets such as physical gold and silver have traditionally been the ideal vehicle for an environment of high inflation coupled with a currency crisis. I fully expect governments will strip these assets from holders either directly or through predatory taxation, fees or other trading limitations. They will be classified somewhere in the four categories discussed above. Alternatively, if it is not done in this fashion it will be controlled through intervention similar to national currencies in the forex arena. I personally suspect it is already being controlled in some fashion based on the March 25th whistleblower testimony by Andrew Maguire. It is a matter of national security in a beggar-thy-neighbor environment since gold and silver are the only real money in a fiat based system. Protect yourself accordingly.

The only protection from the future storms will be unencumbered, revenue producing assets. The trick is knowing which investments will sustain their ability to produce inflation adjusted free cash flow in the midst of a contracting economic environment. They may not be in the publicly traded or manipulated markets.

Thinking for yourself and thinking outside the box is paramount if you are to capitalize on this bumpy trolley ride.

For further background read: EXTEND & PRETEND - Manufacturing a Minsky Melt-Up.

 

Sign Up for the next release in the EXTEND & PRETEND series: Commentary
The previous EXTEND & PRETEND article: EXTEND & PRETEND: The Flash Crash Omen
Gordon T Long        
Tipping Points

Mr. Long is a former senior group executive with IBM & Motorola, a principle in a high tech public start-up and founder of a private venture capital fund. He is presently involved in private equity placements internationally along with proprietary trading involving the development & application of Chaos Theory and Mandelbrot Generator algorithms.

Gordon T Long is not a registered advisor and does not give investment advice. His comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to buy or sell a stock, option, future, bond, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. While he believes his statements to be true, they always depend on the reliability of his own credible sources. Of course, he recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction, before making any investment decisions, and barring that, you are encouraged to confirm the facts on your own before making important investment commitments.

© Copyright 2010 Gordon T Long. The information herein was obtained from sources which Mr. Long believes reliable, but he does not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information, advertisements, website links, or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities. Please note that Mr. Long may already have invested or may from time to time invest in securities that are recommended or otherwise covered on this website. Mr. Long does not intend to disclose the extent of any current holdings or future transactions with respect to any particular security. You should consider this possibility before investing in any security based upon statements and information contained in any report, post, comment or recommendation you receive from him.

 

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Thu, 06/10/2010 - 16:51 | 406964 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Very nice, i will study this more, but for now id like to say the CRE crisis hasn't yet hit. At least, by 'it hitting' i mean when its talked about in the MSM and thus is recognized. 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:01 | 406986 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Oh it's hit alright... almost nothing is moving these days. List prices are still very high and offers are few and low (at least ours are :)... but yes you are correct in stating that we haven't seen much on the MSM.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:40 | 407086 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

It's a blackout like BP in the Gulf. We get bits and pieces but there are still roadblocks, flashing lights, and "What are you doing here?" "Filming." "You can't do that. Go. Now. Notice my tazer."

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:58 | 407113 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

It's still going to be getting much worse in the months ahead as conditions deteriorate further... and the BP 'blackout' is just the tip of the iceberg I fear. On what grounds can they do these things WW? To protect BP from incurring losses (paying out claims) from concealing the true magnitude of this disaster? That is precisely what it appears they have done. 5,000 barrels my ass.

And what else are they not telling us? (rhetorical cuz we don't know.)

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:14 | 407417 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

imo another equity leg up anything like the magnitude of the run from march '09 to april '10 stretches credulity.  the fed leaping back into a quantitative easing 2 might just as easily spook the credit markets with spill-over effects in equities.  maybe not but the average result of over-bought, over-bullish, over-valued equity markets that undergo profound leadership reversals is, on average, quite bearish.  and isn't the word "principal" if it's a person?

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 10:44 | 408117 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Yeah, 'what grounds'. Exactly. It's just another prime example of extra-constitutional action, that's all. BraindeadMerica doesn't even care. Well, they do. But the apathy is thicker than that oil goo. Each step towards martial law...this post-WWII prosperity has somehow suspended the march of history in the eyes of our fellow "citizens", if you can still entitle someone that cannot describe three out of ten in the Bill of Rights a citizen. They can't even defend themselves. They rely wholly on the action of the state. They are at its complete and total mercy. I would call that a slave. If they "confiscate" gold these slaves will be glad and feel so smart that they never bought any PMs in the first place; scoffing at the more in tune slaves. 

Listen all, you better either expatriate yourself soon, our gather yourself into a group of trustworthy, self-sufficient, fiercely-set-on-self-defense individuals that can produce their own daily 2,000 calories for the next few years or your losses will be greatly intensified. Unless you can guarantee that you have no floor; no foundation; you will most likely endure 'total loss'. Get yourself in shape, get a rifle, and put storable food in a storage locker in a rural community if you have no other contingency plan. Consider it the best insurance your money can buy. Get a bike so you can get there within a day or less in case the roads are gridlocked.

War is on the way. I'm sticking around.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:48 | 407093 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Am I the only one that noticed that this week started out with a sort of odd mania in the MSM. Now it's down to a relentless ad roll but it's just seemed very strained to me. 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:02 | 407125 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Perhaps they are experiencing their own cognitive dissonance these days... or perhaps they just dislike the growing number of people ridiculing them...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:17 | 407153 Rainman
Rainman's picture

.....and my bet's on the latter.

Never assume the press is as smart or dumb as we think they are. They  serve a primary master only.....Corporatas Giganticus.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:40 | 407285 Miss Expectations
Miss Expectations's picture

Biggis Dickis Swingis  (I'm going for Latin)

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:21 | 407159 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I'm still seeing headlines about the 'upbeat jobs data'...also one of the SF papers had some front-page headline about some survey of local CEO's showing they are more positive on the economic outlook. Desperation cheerleading.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:05 | 406997 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture
Tishman Speyer Joins Ranks Of TBTF As Fed Gives Real Estate Firm Taxpayer Subsidized Tip

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/tishman-speyer-joins-ranks-tbtf-fed-giv...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:01 | 407122 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

After all the buying the Simon Group has been doing, I have been waiting since last year to hear that they too will position for a bailout. Not irresponsible, criminal. But is there a law against it? Is it fraud. Sure feels like it. My butt is sore.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:29 | 407170 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Hey, there was your selloff.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:33 | 407439 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

thank you crab cake.  belaboring the obvious, but this is precisely what one gets with a government of men not laws (crony capitalism): each situation is handled how "they" feel like handling it, based on connections, a balancing of how they feel about the ones involved, the politics of the moment, what just happened and what might happen next such that none of it will make sense when the forensic auditors and the historians have a go at them.  

it is a black hole that is sucking our treasury and, eventually, our constitution into it.  

bush, with some help from his dad and reagan, cranked up the engine and put it in gear but obama has floored it and grips the wheel, white-knuckled, silently screaming.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 02:55 | 407691 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The government of laws has one well known limit: it works very well when it only encompasses the people for whom it is  designed to work very well.

In normal times, a law stating that food should not be stolen is easy to respect by the man with a full belly. The underfed man is weaker and easy to pin.

When famine strikes, suddenly, the law no longer operates and the man with a full belly now finds interest in stealing food.

Crisis are crisis in that they always reveal how shallow a government of laws is.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:38 | 407283 Citizen of an I...
Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

Paradyn?

Usery?

WTF?

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:20 | 407427 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

it's a dilema.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:24 | 407561 bluebare
bluebare's picture

LOLRF

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:11 | 407309 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 We're running the Thelma and Louise national financing plan.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:40 | 407384 anony
anony's picture

Could be why the trillions we know about (and those trillions we don't) that were given to the banks, first by Paulson, and then Benny, and why they haven't lent much if any of it out, is the reason. 

They are using those trillions it to shore up their non-performing commercial and other R.E. Loans.

This could go on for decades, never recognizing the losses until they magically disappear.

I wouldn't count on any disclosure like there was on residential mortgages, which come to think of it wasn't very transparent at all.

 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:23 | 407428 Modern Money Me...
Modern Money Mechanics's picture

 You have to see this. It is a bubbly Max Keiser with Stacy Herbert. He is singing Obama Baby, RICO, RICO. I swear he must be banging her.

 

Stacy Summary: Not that we all didn’t know this. But here it is, Israeli documents acknowledge Gaza blockade is economic war. [KR50] Keiser Report – Sucking Gold & Slurping Silver with Freddie, Fannie & Confucius

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:42 | 407458 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

thanks.  if mcclatchy counts as msm, it is one of the very best parts.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 02:59 | 407693 Woosirsir
Woosirsir's picture

What is unencumbered asset? Anybody know? Any example?

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 02:59 | 407694 Woosirsir
Woosirsir's picture

What is unencumbered asset? Anybody know? Any example?

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 03:27 | 407705 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Free and clear. value without counter party.Gold in hand.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 16:52 | 406966 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

"Unfortunately, it isn’t a place anyone would choose knowingly other than possibly the Bilderberg elite."

And choose it they did.  Nobody, however, is asking the relevant question.  To what end?

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:24 | 407045 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

They're just taking us for a nice little drive through the countryside...

Look!  Cows!

Sat, 06/12/2010 - 00:50 | 409402 Real Estate Geek
Real Estate Geek's picture

"Leave the gun.  Take the cannoli."

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:30 | 407055 SMG
SMG's picture

You see the people who brought you the Bilderberg, view themselves as the master race and quite simply view us, the regular people, as "useless eaters" , using up the resources that are theirs.  The end is simple, it's to break us.  The great depression that's already starting will break many financially, mentally, and spiritually.

And after all is said and done the "master race" of eyeball triangle worshipers will firmly be in charge and have the world and it's resources to themselves. 

At least that's what they want, whether we as citizens let them achieve that goal, we'll see.

 

 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:49 | 407094 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Its small comfort to know the Puppeteers have to breathe the same chem trailed air we do. Many of their comforts will be taken away and their own offspring are in danger. So why would anyone do this? Nuts.

The air we breathe is compromised. Jobs gone , and we cant trust our own government.

And the folk are still asleep. Damn. 

the list of trouble is way to long.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:32 | 407275 desgust
desgust's picture

Merehuman, they have some chances to protect themselves from chemtrails and GMO, but how long do WE have these means?

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 03:38 | 407707 merehuman
merehuman's picture

why you would get junked for saying that beats hell outa me. I think we are a lost cause. I find it difficult to understand why our people are so complacent. Perhaps the spraying, or something in the water made a lot of us stupid combined with the upbeat tv lies and poor education.

By now i expected just a little bit of rebellion. Nada. The 3% that we are isnt enough to make a difference, we will be lucky to save ourselves.

I count my blessings that i live in a small town and know my neighbors.

Looking back at the civil war i noticed the militias and armys took what they needed from those they chanced upon. Too many unknowns to prepare adequately.   Be well friend

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 05:22 | 407748 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

> merehuman #407707

imo-- tv is, and always has been a big part of the problem..

of course, there are the others..flouride, fructose, artificial sweetners..

'controlled' education, censorship..

the 'chess game' goes on... 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:04 | 407126 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

+ !!!!!!!!

"And after all is said and done the "master race" of eyeball triangle worshipers will firmly be in charge and have the world and it's resources to themselves."

I am sure they have well paid military consultants that are assuring them that they will remain safe even if there is large scale revolt. Of course if you pay someone enough they will give you the answer you want to hear.  Might not be the right answer though. 

The most well paid, well equipped merc army may not have the level of motivation that people with nothing to lose who are full of hate have. And there will be many of them. 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:06 | 407232 mkkby
mkkby's picture

Don't be so sure merc armies will stay with their paymasters once fighting begins.  They are not themselves elite and they will hate their bosses just as much as we do.  Many of them will storm and loot the castles they are paid to protect.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:58 | 407298 CPL
CPL's picture

Just have to starve them.  Three weeks tops.  Even MRE's only last as long as the mouths to feed and also have an expiry date.

Gotta know how to grow food to live.

 

People are talking as if we get to keep what we've built, I honestly don't see how.  Everything from the power grid, internet, hospitals or even something as simple as road development/civil engineering, politics/power structures.  I wouldn't put any promises on even an army being there.  I'm pretty sure we'll see the rise of the township again over a city state.

 

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:37 | 407575 Woosirsir
Woosirsir's picture

Gotta know how to grow food to live? Marc Faber had already moved to Thailand living in a big rural area where he can grow food too. Looks funny but he really did it !!! But in this world, how many people used to live in city will do this kind of funny decision? Only those as rich as Marc.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:33 | 407181 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

We all took easy street for granted.  The Bilderbergers couldn't design this, they are just rich people who think they know a lot more than they do.  Just look at the names on the list.  A club full of losers. It's always turning out different from what they wanted.  They never expected Obama to fall apart in 18 months.  They never saw the Tea Party coming. They are more like mosquitos and vultures than our overlords.  I expect they all have their gold stashed away and will make out fine.  But no one will be listening to them when the house of cards goes flat.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:56 | 407216 moneymutt
moneymutt's picture

they never saw the Tea Party coming? Fox promoted it endlessly, if Murdoch isn't connected who is...he's not a revolutionary...maybe the Tea Partiers can morph into something beyond being a bit more partisanly conservative than Repubs, til then, it seems Beck's job is to lead them into political marshes...just as liberal pundits stick to gay issues, environmental issues, and do little on financial issues...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:39 | 407334 Currently Smoki...
Currently Smoking Cannabis's picture

They never saw it coming.  They just hijacked it once it got up steam.

Unless you think the Tea Party dudes drifted from Ron Paul to Sarah Palin without "help".

I don't.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:36 | 407519 Annonomous
Annonomous's picture

You know how when the cops come and bust all the guys selling drugs in one park, the insiders in the game set up shop on the other side of town?

Now that news outlets are filming and releasing lists of attendees at Bilderberg meetings, couldn't that now just be the old spot?

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 16:53 | 406972 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

Tyler C-SPAN has the congressional committee on financial reform. 

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/C-SPAN3.aspx

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 16:54 | 406974 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

"What are you going to do?"

So, what are you going to do? 

I think we should attempt to blog away the problem, and see how we can profit from it all...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:19 | 407028 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

+100

Blogging is the new DotCom-ing. "Knowledge" is the new stock option.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:39 | 407182 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Thank you for your +100.  At least you responded, if not with an answer, still a response.

The people on this site are light years ahead of the herd, but still their cognitive dissonance will not allow them to truly face this question. 

There was one answer given below in a snarky way... I'll buy options as insurance.  I'm sure that's going to ward off tyranny. 

Nothing?

This is the best you have?  You folks, yes you reading this right now, KNOW what is going down.  It's right above you in this very article, if you are in doubt, and Tyler writes about it every day.  The situation is clear.

You know where this is headed, you know the implications, so let me rephrase, what are you going to fucking do? 

A gun is pointed at you and your family, and the best that y'all can come up with is to intellectually pick the situation apart, attempt to profit from the fraud and manipulation, wait for the criminals to finish looting your house, hoard gold, and spectate the collapse? 

The knowledge of what is to come that you have is a gift.  It is a gift that allows informed action, and action is what you are refusing.  TEOTWAWKI is here, and you are deer in headlights; I suggest you move.  Wake the hell up.  What are you going to do?

You are so much more powerful than you know, I wish more of you knew that.  We are not helpless, and this doesn't have to go down the way TPTB want it to.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:22 | 407259 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

It would depend entirely on how things play out. If there is serious unrest or war, I would probably get as far away as possible.

If the situation stays within the realm of reasonably non-violent hardship, I would probably try to bring the people around me together, because working in together a small community will be better than going alone. I have prepared for my family as well as myself, and there is not much more I can do, where I am now - other than to try to stay healthy and employed as long as possible, and saving all I can moneywise.

On a macro level, I feel the urge "do something" - "to organize" - "to join someone/thing" to more actively work to prepare alternatives - to safeguard the communication, to present the monetary alternatives, to plan for food and energy security etc.

But everytime I look into a webnewspaper from back home, I get discouraged, because I think the debate is extraordinarily stupid and people are so incredibly spoiled and selfcentred that many deserve good oldfashioned spanking. And the mere thought of discussing with them, until reality sinks in a bit more, seems fruitless.

But if I was ever to engage in the political side of the situation it would be based on an ideal of building a tight community of mutual responsibility and respect based on libertarian principles. 

 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:02 | 407476 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

my view as well (although i intend to get as close away as possible-Canada, if possible) with my family. We are "doomed to repeat it" imho (or some nasty, tattooed variant of "it"). 

Collective, wisdom sweeps upon Man like a virus, after the fact.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:45 | 407290 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

And your obvious solution is...what?  A benevolent dictator who will reinstate capitalism and abolish TBTF?  Or remove voting rights from women, who either don't understand economics or don't care that you can't have your cake and eat it too?  Put Blankfein and Ron Paul in a cage a la Thunderdome=="two men enter, one man leaves"?

 

I appreciate your optimism, but in a perfect election turnaround where Tea Party activists win EVERY SINGLE HOUSE AND SENATE SEAT this November...what could they do to fix this?  $61.9T govt debt=$61.9T govt debt.  Game over.

http://www.pgpf.org/about/nationaldebt/

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 01:00 | 407605 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

y'know Geoff, that's two posts in one day where you mention women + voting rights. . . and you say you're in the military too, hmm? 

are you clear about which side you are fighting for?

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 13:12 | 408440 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Don't believe I ever said I definitely was or wasn't military--but is it illegal for a military man to have a low opinion of socialism?  And de facto, a low opinion OF THE VOTING INTELLIGENCE of any group that consistently votes for socialistic policies?  I love chicks (I married a great one!) but you can't explain to a LOT of women how the economics of "no free lunch" works.  They just BELIEVE it's possible to have a free lunch, and no amount of attempting to walk them through it works.  Giving women the right to vote may have been moral in some way, but it's been an unequivocal disaster for property rights, the rule of law, capitalism, and traditional marriage.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 14:08 | 408556 velobabe
velobabe's picture

of course we can have a free lunch, plus dessert†

are you serious U K.

i think your, i better not say, it is still daylight.

it's the other way around sir, they never should of given men the right to vote.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:59 | 407300 Hellholeratrace
Hellholeratrace's picture

Well, what's your answer? I'm glad you're asking what we're going to do because maybe some one can shed some light for me. My answer is: I don't know. I don't have enough money to profit from any of it, buy gold, by endless supplies, etc.  I have tried and continue to try to pass on information to my family and friends about what's coming, but no one wants to hear it.  The response I get from my own husband is "you need to quit focusing on that bullshit".  I think because my graduate degree is in economics, every one around me thinks it's some sort of obsession I have - like's it's a personal problem for me. They don't want to acknowledge what's happening in front of their own eyes. It's incredibly frustrating.   Other than trying to educate those around me which so far = FAIL, I focus on keeping a paycheck and trying to think of creative ways in which I can protect my family.  IMO, I can't change what's coming, but maybe a revolution of the masses could.  Unfortunately, from what I can gather, it seems too late to try to clue-in the general public.  They just want to argue about small picture issues and keep their blinders on. People don't like feeling stupid and that's how you feel when you've been scammed.  However, people do love their TV, so maybe all the ZH's can round up enough $ to buy some cable channel air time :)

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:34 | 407375 fightthepower
fightthepower's picture

Do what you can on your own.  Leave your loser husband. 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:39 | 407522 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

If you are asking my opinion, and you did, I believe mass non cooperation is the correct and logical action at this point.  Tax strike by work strike, and no transactions.  No work, no mortgage payments, no trading in the markets, no banking, and no buying unless absolutely necessary.  If even a small minority of say 20% of the populace did this for a month, we could easily bring the government to heel.  Send a list of common sense demands, and tell them that they have a month to pass and implement, or the strike continues for another month.  The banksters are not the only ones that can threaten apocalypse, and we know how the cowards in DC respond to this sort of pressure; they bend.

We may not be able to avoid collapse, but we as a populace can take control of it.  Get the Paulites and the Tea Party on board and there's your small minority, set the date, lay out the demands, and take a staycation.  We can save our country by taking a month long  unpaid vacation, no laws would be broken, it would be so diffuse that crackdown would be near impossible, the only thing at risk would be your job, and no blood would be shed. 

That's my .02.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:18 | 407554 Ragnar D
Ragnar D's picture

The problem is that at this point there are more dependents who view themselves as Entitled to half your earnings than there are productive, independent individuals who wish to be left alone.

If even a portion as large as 20% of firmly middle class, career-minded individuals did what you suggest, Barry and Nancy and Bawney and the rest of the race-baiting, dependency-pushing, central-planner, class-warfare poverty pimps would have no trouble going after us because to them we're already the enemy.

No matter how modest your lifestyle, if you have any real career at all, a middle class income, credit cards that aren't maxed out, any savings beyond the next paycheck, and live within your means, you are the evil "rich" they're coming after.  If you are not feeding at the public trough, you are not dependent on them and therefore your job is to shut up and pay your (everyone else's) taxes, or be dealt with swiftly.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 13:06 | 408431 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Thanks for your response.  I'd like to refine my request to ask you what you think is possible in the real world.  Who in their right mind would leave their job in this economy in order to make a statement to the government?  If you mean operate in some sort of black market, then I missed that.  And absent a black market economy in Wyoming that operates on silver/gold coins AND shoots all IRS/FBI agents on sight...I dunno how that would work.  Digital money is screwing us.

 

Blood's going to be shed, and I don't think there's anything anybody can do to stop it.  Except protect your own and your family's.  After enough people in the cities starve to death (or more likely, die from lack of clean water), the rebuilding will begin.  Which will start as a liberal, free market society.  Which will regress into socialism after about 150 years...kind of a blue shift/red shift thingie going on here, huh?

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:16 | 407312 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Prepared and functioning CC, as are a number of members in our community. We long ago went over the details here at ZH. Those not prepared at this point probably never will be. Those on the fence better make a decision soon...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:21 | 407322 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

Sorry for being dim here, but what is CC short for?

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:32 | 407330 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Chocolate City as in, "We love you CC." A la George Clinton and Parliament.

Or CrabCake.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:19 | 407555 Ragnar D
Ragnar D's picture

I thought maybe he just writes his Gs as Cs, and it's for "Gault's Gulch".

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:08 | 407355 Busy-Body
Busy-Body's picture

Hulk was referring to Crab Cake, the author of this mini-thread. 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:30 | 407370 velobabe
velobabe's picture

f*ck i thought it stood for

cold conflict.

i will just be damned anymore†

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:37 | 407333 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Staying informed, staying positive, junking trolls, brick-by-brick adding to preparations, keeping friends close. Staying nimble because we can't prdict the exact nature of our future.

Hulk could you post a link to the thread you referenced? Thank you for your posts.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:22 | 407354 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Was many threads over the past 8 months. We have a working farm, a copy of polyface farm (Joel Salatin), that is pasture based. The farm is in the middle of nowhere, originally selected due to its peace and quiet, which could now prove advantageous. When we purchased it, it had a 60 acre logged off area and 40 acres of woods, so it was fairly cheap, about  a grand an acre. We then erected cheap structures, hoop houses, to house chickens and fenced off parts of the woods for forest fed pigs and built a pole barn. The idea here is not to get in debt due to expensive tractors , grain silos, etc. We got lucky and have several year round springs with delicious water.

Lastly, I have heavily emphasized that we established community, participate in the local farmers markets, purchase most supplies locally, etc.I want to make damn sure the readers here understand that we are exactly the opposite of the 80's type Idahoian survivalist nut cases....(not sure if idahoian is a real word, but I used it anyway) This is definitely the strong trend these days, which is interesting...

For folks here that want to learn pasture farming techniques, here is the guru

http://www.polyfacefarms.com/

I can tell you that there is no end to the demand for pasture based products. We sell out at our bi-weekly farmers markets every time.

Here is what forest fed pig farming looks like, as featured on ABC's nightline

http://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/chipotle-seeks-model-quality-fast-food/story?id=7843832

 

 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:03 | 407406 Bolweevil
Bolweevil's picture

Thank you again, you're a huge asset (no pun intended).

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:19 | 407494 The Captain
The Captain's picture

Hulk, shoot me an e-mail: travelkirk@gmail.com

I am a fellow pasture-based farmer...

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 10:22 | 408006 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

edit

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:02 | 407547 DasRipper
DasRipper's picture

Hulk, I have been a long time lurker, but if I recall correctly you live in the Bay Area, I live in SF and my wife and I would love to know where to find some land that is semi-close.  If you have any information on any "prepardness" groups in the Bay Area I would love to discuss it further...I'll leave my email as well jkthompson@gmail.com

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:28 | 407564 Hulk
Hulk's picture

I have been doing the research here in the bay area for several years now with a mini farm.We then take my results and apply them at a much larger scale back east But due to the water problem here in california, I wouldn't know how to pull off a grass base farm. Our farm is on the east coast, were we get lots of rain and land is much cheaper. I'll be heading there for the summer/fall starting next week.

But you will be interested to know that a dozen of real pastured hen eggs commands 10 bucks a dozen here. Only 3 bucks on the east coast

 

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 01:27 | 407628 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

great post Hulk. 

I'm late to the thread, and haven't read it all yet, (though I will), but this seems like a good place to begin posting. . .

I have many friends who live in Portland Oregon (and surrounding areas) - everyone of them has dug up their front and back yards (years ago), improved the soil, and farm organic edible gardens. . . most have chickens in the back yard, fresh eggs for the neighbourhoods. . . one is working on maintaining a bee colony, another has found her town allows a single goat per household, and will be acquiring one soon. . . all barter & trade with neighbours, and work towards building community networks.

land is great if you can afford it, but you can begin NOW to grow at least some of your foodstuffs, and in doing so, you may find that your neighbours will do so too.

no land? straw bale gardens are relatively easy, and they do work!  container gardens as well.      http://www.strawbalegardens.com/

a good book to give to people just beginning to "get it" but still feeling helpless is Sharon Astyk's "Depletion and Abundance" - very simple but informative. . . she has a blog with resources and plenty of self-sufficiency advice,

http://sharonastyk.com/

there are plenty of people "out there" getting on with preparations and shifting their life-styles around. . . for me, there is nothing more important than finding "community" - like-minded people you feel willing to share and trust.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 06:25 | 407771 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

Yes, Cathartes, you make a very positive and important note. It does not take a whole farm to produce most of your own food.

My cave instinct was very alive and kicking long before all these economic issues became apparent. Maybe it was a kind of premonition, but I felt like I had to try to remember, what my generation was so readily forgetting, and I had to re-learn what earlier on had been passed from parent to child over centuries. I felt that the everyday person was losing touch with nature and the knowledge of our soil, food and animals as basic survival skills.

I had a small house in the middle of a capitol in Northern Europe for 10 years. The garden was approx. 700 square meters. For those who do not have much land, I can tell you: It is nothing short of AMAZING how much good food you can produce in a small garden like that. And actually much smaller too, if you plan well. I made a lot of mistakes, but by and large it worked quite well. I was inspired by many books, but one was especially good. It was called something like the selfsustaining garden, and it had a lot of handdrawings in it, addressing both growing the foods, preservation methods for same and the upkeep of small domestic animals like chickens and rabbits.

I built 9 high beds of 1x3m (too small, but it was the first attempt) and I grew everything from cabbage, potatoes to green beans, peas, lettuce, carrots, squash. Capsicum, cucumber, tomato was grown in a little class house. The message here being, that a lot of really good stuff can be produced in a small garden.

I like trekking, and a few years ago, I went to a village in Romania to walk in the Carpathian mountains. It was like stepping into the past. People were definately not wealthy moneywise, but ALL families had gardens for food as an integral part of the household economy, and it was a fantastic showcase of how ordinary people can become more immune to turmoil and isolation, because point number one on the survival list is covered beautifully right outside the main door of their modest houses.

My next challenge is to setup a small water efficient highbed garden in the desert climate, that I now call home.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 05:45 | 407752 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

> Hulk #407354

Awesome, thanks for sharing..Before the 'industrial revolution, these multi-generational farms were in the majority..Re: that 'industrial revolution', we all know where that led..Be safe..

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:44 | 407336 Currently Smoki...
Currently Smoking Cannabis's picture

As a powerless prole, my plan is to:

1. Not have children. (No worries about the future.)

2. Stockpile enough supplies to get to watch the show a while.

3. Write it all off, take drugs, drink, have a good time, laugh, and accept that I'll die early as a result of my unfortunate timing.

 

It's not cheery, but it's realistic.  Party on, dudes!

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 11:02 | 408143 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

A plan that would make Stephen King proud. Hey, I'm not knockin' ya. It's a plan! Better than 97.98% of the rest of the pukes out there.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:39 | 407382 Teaser
Teaser's picture

You know, you raise an excellent point.

ZH goes down more often than a 2 dollar hooker on Saturday Night in NY, but when ZH was down yesterday, I was lonely, I was alone....terribly alone.  I realized I don't know where any of you guys and gals live. 

I run into the same problems many of you express, namely that everyone I speak to doesn't care or doesn't want to know.  Despite the fact that the game is playing out exactly as I (and to a lesser degree, ZH) have been saying, if not in the exact time frame.  But, step by step it is happening.

Anyway, before ZH goes down for another extended time period, please post your addresses so I can come visit and not feel that terrible aloneness again.

(disclaimer... please don't ever post your address on an internet board, because while I am not a whacko, I am quite certain that Harry Wanger and Leo K both are!)

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:18 | 407492 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Don't worry!  The only entity who knows all of us, and how to find us, is the CIA. We'll all meet in the internment camp.  We can make name tags with our ZH names on them. 

 

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:31 | 407569 butchee
butchee's picture

RR- Can hardly wait to see you there....I'm gonna watch some reruns of Hogans Heros so I have role models and know how to behave properly!

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:38 | 407576 akak
akak's picture

"Achtung inmates, raus Raus RAUS! Now, who haz ze gold?"

"Gold?  Vee know nossing, NOSSING!"

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 01:04 | 407613 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

"HogaaaaaAAANN!"

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 07:11 | 407794 jimijon
jimijon's picture

Come to the National Rainbow Gathering of the Warrior of Light. It will be held in north western Pennsylvania. You will meet and gather with incredible people and learn how and where to go in case of the big emergency.

http://welcomehome.org and for music and others:

http://rainbowglowmedicineshow.com

luvinyou all

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 03:50 | 407715 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Crab cake, i could be mistaken but my take is that we each of us feel, perceive our isolation. There is a powerless feeling knowing the big boys run the show and protesting gets you nothing but contempt and jail or defamement of some kind.

I am on the west coast . How shall i strike at my enemy, my tormentor, the taker of half my pay who laughs at me from the other coast?

This needs be a revolt by the masses, but they will not come until too late.

The only way we can make a difference is to educate the public, make utube videos ,print fliers  etc. And many of us have done these things. Yes, they are waking up bit by bit, but its too slow.

Anyone on ZH who has an ounce of civic responsibility should do their best to warn, wake up the public.

If theres another way please let me know. 1mealperday on utube I am.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 16:56 | 406977 Pimp Juice
Pimp Juice's picture

The trolly is for the losers stuck with the collective way of travel, I'm taking my gas efficient moped. Thanks to Tyler for showing me the way, even if he is a figment of our imagination.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 16:57 | 406980 centerline
centerline's picture

I guess the good news is that I might have a little more time this year to stock up on food, liquor and ammo.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:05 | 407129 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, a little more time to stock up on all the above.

Toss in some precious metals, and you'll be better off than 98% of all non-farmers.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:30 | 407503 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

I do survival shopping as a normal part of regular outings.  I stop by Walgreens and pick up a few medical nick-knacks like iodine, gauze, and whatever.  Stop in at the dollar store and pick up plastic pails, small hand tools, assorted gloves, easy to store and long lasting edibles, and whatever strikes my fancy.   A trip to Sam's yields a gallon of refill for the hand-washing pump dispensers, a box of nicotine gum, vitamins, etc.  BTW: the hand-washing liquid is about $6 a gallon!  It works for shampoo and soap.  A quick stop at Gander Mountain for ammo, whether it's my caliber or not, a hatchet, yo-yos for fishing, plastic parkas, thermal blankets, etc.  Some things I get with a view to trading if necessary so having more than one of something doesn't bother me.  Amazon.com was a gold mine for many things of the survival type as well!  One of the best items was a solar recharger for batteries AAA to C sizes.  That was a great buy.  I just make it a part of my life style.  Gets to be a habit and it is very comforting.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 04:01 | 407722 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hey, this is for all you survivalists out there.

One key ingredient in all your survival essentials should be as much Hydrogen Peroxide as you can keep.

The big Walgreen Bottles are supposed to have very little contamination.

It is a cure all, a purifier, an alkalize-er, you can brush your teeth with it, heal cuts/burns, bruises, just magic.

One really useful page you can print out for reference is:

http://www.landrights.com/Hydrogen_Peroxide.htm

Absolutely awesome. I've turned many people on to it in India and had amazing results myself.

MEanwhile, ecclectic ones, visit my blog

aadivaahan.wordpress.com

for in-sights if so called

Good luck all around. We're all going to need it.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 16:59 | 406984 BumpSkool
BumpSkool's picture

Politicly/Humanisticly were in deep Do-Do. But to quote Jim Sinclair in his new book "Pocketbook of Gold" ....do not try and save the world...the world will get angry and destroy you ... save yourself.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:22 | 407040 Blues Traveler
Blues Traveler's picture

Amen and Sinclair is the man....

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 12:28 | 408351 BumpSkool
BumpSkool's picture

... indeed, Sinclair IS the man...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:00 | 406987 mule65
mule65's picture

What are you going to do?

  • Insure with Options
Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:15 | 407016 akak
akak's picture

NO NO NO!

Forget options, forget gold (you can't eat it!), forget anything else!

"If you fear hyperinflation do not look to Gold, instead buy a small (5% of your total portfolio) position in far out of the money LEAP CALLS on the major indices, spread across them."

 

Karl Denninger has spoken! 

So let it be written, so let it be done!

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:17 | 407024 BumpSkool
BumpSkool's picture

Nope... never want to look at Gold. I'll just do what Denninger says ... I mean, he's usually right, isn't he???

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:49 | 407089 akak
akak's picture

"I'll just do what Denninger says ...I mean, he's usually right, isn't he???"

"Usually" right?  "USUALLY"??

Karl Denninger is always right!  ALWAYS, I say!

Just for that slur, I ban you!  BANNED, do you hear?!

 

http://randomlyspecific.vox.com/library/post/hothead-blogger-karl-dennin...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:33 | 407373 velobabe
velobabe's picture

never be t o o  s u r e of that statement.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 21:39 | 407383 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

"You are banned!  You too Akak.  Banished I say!  Now who will serve me a leap call?  You!  OK....and you over there, get me an iced tea and a pillow.  Now fan me.  I'm tired.  Always being right is very tiresome."

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:37 | 407447 velobabe
velobabe's picture

your a nutball†

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:33 | 407515 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Isn't that redundant? 

What the hell is your new avatar?  I liked the old one.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:53 | 407463 akak
akak's picture

And don't forget, you need to feed Pharoah Karl chilled grapes as he languidly lounges under a veranda while being fanned by palm fronds held by nubile young lasses.  And the harp players in the background --- must not forget the harps!

"You, slave girl, where is that caviar I asked for?  I said caviar, NOW!  Or must I inflict a tongue-lashing upon you too?"

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 03:55 | 407719 merehuman
merehuman's picture

Hey you, you forgot to peel my grape!

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 11:04 | 408145 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

LOL

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 12:30 | 408356 BumpSkool
BumpSkool's picture

... I think I better just shut up and do what Denninger says... because Denninger is always right. Always Right

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:22 | 407038 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

In the great words of Tyler Durden, "Things you own, end up owning you".

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:54 | 407105 merehuman
merehuman's picture

40 years ago that was a song i made up. I aint got nuthen, nothing got me! I aint got nuthen is why i am free.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:20 | 407319 Teaser
Teaser's picture

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/2393-Upcoming-Birthday-Tickerforum!.html

I want to participate in the Forum-palooza he has going but.....

I was banned for using the word Gold.  Here's the exact quote I posted.

"Karl, that post was solid GOLD, I loved it"

I was banned 5 minutes later.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:34 | 407516 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Well, gold is not totally banned:

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:42 | 407530 akak
akak's picture

What a hypocrite that Denninger is!

I'm surprised he doesn't rank his members' status as follows:

1) Fractional Reserve

2) Paper

3) Bootlicker

4) Dennizombie

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 23:59 | 407545 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You left out:

5) Ball Nuzzler

6) Brown Noser

7) Scrotum Spaniel

8) Suck-O-Phant

9) Monkey Minion

10) ...and the always popular, Toady

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:49 | 407594 akak
akak's picture

"Scrotum Spaniel"?

LOL!  That's a new one on me!

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:01 | 406989 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The guy got my attention till the point he drew the ridiculous political charts.

US citizens have definitively an issue with their past, always eager of fooling themselves about their past policies.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:41 | 407195 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

Yeah, AA, when he put left wing in the corner with individual freedom I was floored.  He has left wing mixed up with back to land hippies of the 70s, I guess, different planets.  The economic sequences make sense, but trying to time this is a fool's game.  I think it will fall apart sooner and faster than anyone is ready for.  One day we are looking a 300 up on the DOW.  The next day your bank invalidates your debit card when you swipe  it at Wal Mart.   

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:54 | 407211 akak
akak's picture

I think that you may have misread that chart (the classic political "Nolan Chart") incorrectly.

The chart consists of two axes, the y-axis labeled "social (or personal) freedom", and the x-axs labeled "economic freedom".  So to read it correctly, "leftism" is described by greater personal freedom and lesser economic freedom, whereas "rightism" is described by greater economic freedom and lesser personal freedom.  "Authoritarianism/Statism" is described by a low level of both freedoms, and Libertarianism by greater degrees of both freedoms.

While simplistic, I think this chart is a MUCH better representation of typical political thought than the absurd one-dimensional line of "left wing/right wing", which has NO place for true liberty-oriented political thought anywhere on it, and which ludicrously attempts to place communism and fascism on opposite ends of a one-dimensional spectrum, when in reality they are ideological blood brothers.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:15 | 407249 Chupacabra
Chupacabra's picture

Couldn't agree more!  The success of the left/right paradigm is just tragic.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:22 | 407256 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Agreed, Nolan charts are pretty clear. They show more accurate ranges of ideology than the right-left nonsense.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 03:08 | 407697 AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Interesting comment.

The one dimension  right-left non sense is still reported on the graph (the diagonal)

I wonder how a diagonal cant mean when its composing axis mean?

Care to explain? 

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 03:22 | 407702 murray
murray's picture

Truly should it not just be a single line..

 

totalitarianism______anarchy

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:01 | 406990 chet
chet's picture

"The market drops for the most part have been ‘buying opportunities’ and market spikes have been excellent exit points."

No shit.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:07 | 407002 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

It's a variation on buy before the price goes up and sell before the price goes down... It's simple you see!

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:23 | 407042 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

Ah, Christ, is that how it works?!  I been following that "buy-and-fold" strategy everybody always talks about, and I keep wondering how, if I let all my chips go out with the pot, just HOW in blazes I get 'em back.

Ah, Christ... I wish somebody woulda told me...

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:39 | 407082 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

Me too... I'm just beyond bitter now.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:02 | 406992 Greater Fool
Greater Fool's picture

I'm not sure what a currency crisis in the world's reserve currency looks like, particularly when the country with the biggest GDP growth in the world has its currency pegged to it.

I like the ideas here, though. Sheds light on something that hadn't been clear to me up till now: The US complaining about China not letting CNY float is 100% kabuki, just as China complaining about US fiscal policy is.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:07 | 407003 jm
jm's picture

Why is everyone pulling "$5 trillion in QE" out of their ass?  I've seen no reference to that number coming from the Fed or the idiots connected to the White House.

It is important to think outside the box and consider/prepare for many scenarios, but the fact is nothing is inevitable and extreme assumptions don't make good prophecy. 

Reduce $5 trillion to something smaller and the apocalypse risk fades proportionately.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:35 | 407011 ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

And arrives sooner.

However it's not about avoiding the Apocalypse but embracing it and making money GS and JPM style.

Asset prices are due to collapse correct? Good.

Liquidity will evaporate once again correct? Good.

Where do you think the $5T will go? Correct... directly to the TBTF's.

What will the TBTF's do? Correct... buy strategic assets cheaply and eventually (if ever) repay later with devalued dollars.

Everyone wins!

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:19 | 407029 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

I'm just remembering the pit-of-my-stomach feeling I got when I first heard about the insane $900B bailout. "WTF...that's mind-boggling!"

I fully expect the government/Treserve is contemplating a similar level of shock, but $1T just doesn't do it for me any more.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:52 | 407097 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Pluuuuuuuuuuus we still don't know what the hell is going on in the Gulf. If they announce evacuations you can screw the charts. And they should. Announce evacuations that is. People mostly won't do it on their own. That is, a caring government made up of freedom-loving citizens would have announced a plan. But we are stuck with criminally-psychotic children that are caught by the public in a vicious cycle of lies. And the public changes the channel back to Dateline, or Teletubbies, or whatever. Expect much pain. JUST LOOK AT ALL THAT FUCKING OIL!!!

I laugh when I hear about it. Those around me probably consider me sick. Maybe I am. But I laugh because they are just waking up. It's not a happy laugh. It's that cynical laugh of being behind bars unjustly. Others weep, "Why me?" I laugh because it will only get worse. My dad called my nihilistic the other day. "What? Dad, seriously? Why the hell do you think I've saved up food and ammo? We're collapsing! What do you expect! I mean what the hell do you expect! I wouldn't have a bunker off the grid if I didn't want to make it and just wanted to shoot myself! Trust me, my glass is half full!"

Sorry if you cannot empathize. I pity the fool. Am I projecting? JUST LOOK AT ALL THAT FUCKING OIL!!!

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:59 | 407118 merehuman
merehuman's picture

only reason you laugh is to keep from crying, perhaps thats just true for me?

Humans will die from this too. But every bird i see in oil breaks my heart. I can no longer look at it.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:07 | 407235 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Right on, WW.  I would suggest you clue your father in to the finer aspects of entropy and and the role phytoplanktens play in the reduction of CO2 and production of oxygen (70% of atmosphere).  He may wish to plant a few trees and join you in a good belly laugh.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:04 | 407305 Hulk
Hulk's picture

ABC news just reported that the gulf oil spill is twice now previous estimates.

About 8 times as big as the exxon valdez at present.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 06:34 | 407775 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

Stating the obvious...Valdez was a ship (finite quanity..)This deep well=hmmm..

Was walking around a few weeks ago, appreciating all the trees in bloom (in city)..

Noticed the absense of the usual honey bees..

Independant events maybe not so independant... 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:25 | 407046 longjohnshorts
longjohnshorts's picture

$4.75 trillion.

Happy now?

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:37 | 407075 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

5T is reasonable for the following two reasons:

a) TPTB would like for the knock-on effect of the QE on market sentiment to last for a duration measured in days rather than in hours. (refer to EU bailout)

2) EVERYONE always wants to say that THEIRS is the BIGGEST PACKAGE. (refer again to EU bailout -- this detail was pointed out by someone on this site...can't remember who)

 

(yeah, I meant to do that)

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:11 | 407138 Kali
Kali's picture

That was me : ), thanks for remembering! 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:31 | 407175 jm
jm's picture

Plausible reply.  However, there are equally plausible views.

Because officials are elected, it is highly unlikely for a democratic country to let a central bank or treasury put a gun to its head and pull the trigger.  $5 trillion in QE is a loaded gun.

*

I see a lot of bitching now, but that is more a function of people thinking it is over for THEM (not everybody else) as you said. This may be because they are in work, have a recovered 401K, or have gold and guns or whatever.

Go back to December 2008.  There was no greed, there little anger, mainly fear.  That is why it was easy to push through TARP, TALF, TSLP, and yes even, QE.

Now imagine the S&P at 400.  They can do QE again in an amount that doesn't put a gun to the government temple.  Few will bitch about it.  They are going to Japanify the situation until they can't.  The situation may never go past that.

Nobody knows what happens if it does.

Perhaps one can recast this whole article as an internal debate at the Fed whether the blessing of a reserve currency is worth the curse of a reserve currency.  All very controlled at that angle.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:24 | 407264 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Also, the Fed has to buy something to effect QE.

The agency MBS happens to be $5T large and growing.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:35 | 407185 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Does it matter?  After it is put into the ponzi's fractional reserve lending scheme it will be tens of trillions.  This many tens of trillions, that many tens of trillions, same deal.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:39 | 407189 jm
jm's picture

Of course it matters.  It is the difference between a lost decade and a champagne supernova.

 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 18:46 | 407199 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Fair enough.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:05 | 407230 jm
jm's picture

The difference isn't just a purple haze in the brain.  If the best that the Fed and fiscal follies could generate is 16% U6, then imagine how bad it could get without their influence.

I'm grateful for everything I've got.  But others are not so lucky.  A champagne supernova means that a secretary turns tricks to get the rent paid.      

Big picture the Fed is trying to manage a controlled demolition. 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:16 | 407250 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

A Controlled Demolition, agreed.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:47 | 407292 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

Somehow I doubt they would want anyone to know they are trying to manage any kind of demolition. If that leaked out, their control is gone for good. So they are stuck with an official-unofficial extend and pretend position, and then they'll look for a big enough 'external' event that will allow them to execute the next stage of their plan (assuming they have one).

At that point they could either use the Paulson bazooka play for more QE, or they could let destruction rain. But depending on the type of 'event' they're using for cover, they may have a very difficult time controlling the demolition.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:31 | 407436 jm
jm's picture

As much as I dislike how far things have devolved, it is some comfort that the Fed still reports consumer credit and a lot of other monetary data for everyone to see.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:09 | 407239 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I have a number of Zimbabwe 100 Trillion dollar bills for sale.  Which face do you think will appear on our 100 Trillion bill.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 19:50 | 407295 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

Ought to be Nixon, for taking us off gold standard.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:29 | 407328 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Pffft - in that case might as well be DeGaulle for calling bullshit on Bretton Woods after we took over in Indochine.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 20:50 | 407343 Currently Smoki...
Currently Smoking Cannabis's picture

Choose it with a poll, and the Tril bill will be Mylie Cyrus.

Seems fitting.

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 22:54 | 407465 Citizen of an I...
Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

IN ONE SENSE, economically/financially surviving $750bn in QE is at least conceivable.

But I cannot conceive this system surviving a $5tn QE.

 

The idea is both monstrous and preposterous.  The mere suggestion of it implies systemic failure in the inevitable--past-tense--sense of the term.

 

So instead I keep telling myself, a man can live on potatoes and carrots alone. A man can live on potatoes and carrots alone.

Sure hope that's true.

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 04:05 | 407728 merehuman
merehuman's picture

it depends on if you have beer to bribe the slugs. They wont eat your veggies if you give the millers high life!

Half my garden was eaten within 5 rainy days. My bad, should have gone out at nite and picked them up. Not enough sun either . One sunny day in 12 is not conducive to vigorous growth.  Good luck .

Fri, 06/11/2010 - 00:56 | 407593 Hdawg
Hdawg's picture

it's all incremental mushrooming of what is required to downgrade the Western standard of living to the same as the average chinese worker...you say 5Trillion in the background/media enough and the market will ready itself.  5Trillion is a nice marketable number and is 5 times what europe did.  Europe will try for perhaps 15-25trillion of debasement in order to bail itself out.  They are stealing your purchasing power.

You say austerity enough it becomes accepted...this is what it's all about in my opinion.

I suggest you read the text of Obama's UN speech as below.  'No nation above another'. - It's alot easier to move 800mil peoples standard of living down alot than move 6bn people standard of living up alot.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the_press_office/remarks-by-the-president-to-the-united-nations-general-assembly/

That's why you are hearing $5Trl. Because we are being trained like a monkeys.

This fiat system is over...they are leveling the playing field of global purchasing power because it makes it so much simpler to incrementally bring about their global currency.

 

Thu, 06/10/2010 - 17:16 | 407020 faustian bargain
faustian bargain's picture

$5T QE...that just tripped my OMG-o-meter, so therefore it sounds about right.

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