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Guest Post: False Auction Spells Caution For Stock Market After August NFP
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Buy buy buy!
http://evilspeculator.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/2009-08-09_sorry.png
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anZM7ELx.MYw
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acQvgRoLQmXQ
Interesting research. I wonder if the "false auction" gives any clues as to the magnitude of the breakout/correction.
No, it does not. Though I am partial to seeing the msft earnings announcement low at 963 taken out to the downside and finding support roughly at 929-939.
I do not have enough info yet to provide an accurate downside target at this time however.
I have no idea what NFP means. How much effort does it take to spell out an acronym for the village idiots?
non-farm payroll
To properly analyze "tails" I take the top of the candlestick at the chosen peak as my first reference point then the average (middle) of subsequent candlestick peaks to get the desired effect?
if it only was that easy
think about it some.
Seems to me that no technical or fundamental analysis really matters when the market is being led by the likes of AIG, FRE, FNM and being driven entirely on corrupt government money printing. Really, how do you analyze that, short of ultimate end-game guessing. i.e. hyperinflationary or deflationary collapse or both? Guessing where the 'market' goes in the near term is almost a hopeless endeavour. All you can say is that as long as they keep it together it will likely go higher. When it falls apart, if it's hyperinflation it might go higher still.
I don't know, but I don't think they'll hold it together for more than a few more months at most.
Agreed. I would add that bullish chart formations are being "built" using a combination of futures trades and HFT since there really is no real trading going on.
Now if you will excuse me, I must search the recycling bins for more tin foil, aluminum is on fire.
Dixie,
Yes, the chart formations are being built by HFT and other algo trading systems. But it matters little how the chart formations are built or by whom. In the old days, those same chart formations were built by the floor traders or market makers before the advent of electronic trading. Market makers had an edge over the public in yesteryear, and this has been supplanted by the HFT systems that the NYSE and other exchanges are encouraging to be supplemental liquidity providers. HFT's are simply electronic market makers. But I would argue the HFT's are neither supplemental or necessary. The so-called liquidity they provide is not necessary for price discovery. Hence, the NYSE is being disingenous saying there is a need for such systems after the collapse of LEH.
It really does not matter what corruption or conspiracy drives the market higher. Patterns are leading indicators for us. The trick is to stick with patterns and signals that repeat with a high frequency. And it is important to follow the story line of whatever is driving the market higher or lower. As of early March, the entiment factors driving the market higher or lower have been fairly transparent and easy to follow.
Guessing where the market goes near term is not a hopeless endeavor. You know it when you see it. This is a short term topping pattern. I do not know how low it will go from here yet, or how long the correction will last, but I do know that I should be able to see it when it happens.
Big Picture Macro-economic considerations often appear closer to us than they really are on a timeline basis. We know the ultimate outcome of this fiscal and monetary stimulus will end disasterously, but the timeline is probably far more distant than we think. They are like objects in the rear-view mirror that appear closer than they actually are. It paralyzes us from taking action when we need to. The effect it has on us is a bit like a deer in the headlights.
In my studies, most of 2010 will be a year of transition towards the next disastrous
outcome. But the release of that outcome may not show up until 2011.
Bearish Engulfing Pattern
Geeez, another conspiracy theory. Hey, if this guy is so insightful, why isn't he rich??? Yeah, talk is cheap and back fitting your conspiracy theory to recent events is easy 20/20 hindsight. We'll just see how his actual prognostications play out. Dead wrong, I'll bet.
is everything that is incomprehensible to you a conspiracy theory. Are ionic winds in Saturn's upper atmosphere also a conspiracy theory, and is relativity theory also a conspiracy theory and is Copenhagen Interpretation also a product of crazy people. You and the morons like you sound like christian fathers during the Dark Age who strongly opposed any possibility that there is no God. Your dogmatic indoctrination makes you unqualified to participate in any form of discussion, unless it involves SBSP and newest Paris Hilton gossip.
I like your "Copenhagen Interpretation" CB. From wikipedia: "There is no definitive statement of the Copenhagen Interpretation". "Aha..." I am thinking, "CB must be a real expert on this stuff"... I also like how many times the word "collapse" appears in ther text. Like it was a stock market related article...
;-)
And I am not the "Geeez, another conspiracy theory." anon...
yes, there were two fractions among quantum physicist at the time; and the one which was one the side of probabilistic and un-certainty paradigm won by consensus. It is needless to say that Einstein was pissed.
Einsteinian or Lorentzian relativity?
No conspiracy there actually... Just tribal behavior. ...And the fact that few are smart enough to see through the problems with GR & SR, and among those that are, even less have the balls to challenge the status quo.
hey dnarby
i think about Einsteinian relativity and his view of universe being non-probabilistic (quantum) but more a Newtonian constant one. This might be a little off topic, but i wrote a paper explaining the flaws of branches of applied mathematics in a probabilistic universe. I mostly focused on financial mathematics and the way it tried ( and is trying ) to build a probabilistic models ( ie. mathematics involving creating CDS contracts, CMBS, MBS etc) in a universe which they presuppose is a Newtonian one ( law of conservation,gravity ( there is a thing called a financial gravity and it is based on the presupposition that the markets and the system which they try to describe is is irrational)). No need to explain how that little thing went for them; i mean seeing all the destruction CDS contracts brought into our financial system. That is why i am extremely pissed of that the prevalent view of the market and the economy is that it is rational/determined. Sorry for going off topic, but i really really REALLY hate dogmatism in every of the forms it can take. And that is also why i love Feyerabend and his anarchistic epistemology. And also the problem many people, even many mathematicians have is that they lack the view on mathematics and the contextual nature of when it is applied. If you want to go deep into this topic i recommend Whitehead and Russell and their " Principia Mathematica".But, to make a long story short; if you are interested in knowing more about this, send me a msg, and i will mail you the papers i have about this topic.
And so the snake eats its tail
What do you expect? There's nothing else left to eat. Pretense has overtaken rationality.
Though if they really do pull it off, it's going to be a strange world living at the bottom of the rabbit hole. How far can a mass delusion go? Perhaps we're about to find out.
Watch the History Channel Tuesday 9/central For "That's Impossible".
The topic is mind control, it should be good.
A previous episode outlined information on weather control & warfare (HAARP).
Seems to me that no technical or fundamental analysis really matters when the market is being led by the likes of AIG, FRE, FNM and being driven entirely on corrupt government money.
recommended: my newest bookmarked finance site: http://www...
Thank you, John. I appreciate it!