Guest Post: The FED Cannot Keep Stocks Up

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Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:39 | 615572 E pluribus unum
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It will be fun to watch.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:50 | 615607 Rahm
Rahm's picture

Collapse Bitchez!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:46 | 615966 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

say goodnight Gracie.....

 

the smart money moves out this afternoon...wait and see.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:05 | 615859 Buzz Fuzzel
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Beans, bullets and a warm dry place to sleep.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:07 | 615866 Turd Ferguson
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Btw, just as I'm watching for an outside reversal in gold today signaling a possible short-term top, the same is true for the ES.

UI can't imagine the Fed and the PDs will allow it. Expect at least a little 3:30 ramp job just to turn things green on the close.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:27 | 615922 Shameful
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Turd

A little off topic, but have to ask, what do you see as the downside risk of gold/silver assets held physically?  All I could think of is a situation of rapid powerful economic growth to power up the delusion that the system can work long term.  But I can only see that with a cheap, powerful, new source of energy, or massive easy oil.  Because of the problems worldwide and the now common knowledge of a currency war it seems that gold can only move up in the long term as every nation tries to impoverish it's workers and savers by destroying their own currencies.

So am I right that only real threat to gold is a new super energy or maybe finding 5ish Ghawar fields someplace easy to get to?  I'm already moved all in, but just trying to think on how I can get screwed here.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:45 | 615964 ATG
ATG's picture

Martin Armstrong noted the $600 IRS 1099 reporting meant gold could break down to 900s by June next year...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/01/AR200612...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:54 | 615974 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Hmmm, you might want to consider that all of the Russian, Chinese, Japanese, Saudi and European buyers of gold will be not subject to this tax. Just sayin.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:07 | 616015 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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+1

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:19 | 616342 chistletoe
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The #1 downside risk to owning physical gold

 

is the possibility of one of your neighbors owning a philosopher's stone and turning it into lead.

Lest you laugh, Smith and Wesson have been manufacturing them for years ...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:34 | 616390 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Oh yeah that would go over well.  "Hey give me your gold."  "Yeah ok, let me go and get it from my safe where I keep other things too."  And by the way, the only real philospher's stone is a pen. 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:10 | 616029 Shameful
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It's a fear weapon but ultimately useless.  What is to stop goldbugs from getting fake IDs for their sales.  If it's good enough for teens to go to a bar then it's good enough for me!

"I'm John Smith and I'm here to sell a Krugerrand, sure I have my social right here"

The next answer would be cashless transactions and if things go cashless the next move is simple, GET OUT!  Full wealth confiscation and work camps are not far behind...actually with our legal system and prison pop it's pretty much already here.  Also as Turd points out this does not impact the global market which I see as a bigger driver then the US market.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:15 | 616040 Hephasteus
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Unfortunately the people who would like the price of gold to fall do not have enough of it to make it happen. It's called a good money for bad scam and it ends when the good money is gone.

At this point I almost would like to see 30 more million unemployed just to see the webuygold crowd finally bring this thing to it's inevitable conclusion.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 18:11 | 616827 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I'll just buy 1/4 ounce bullion instead. Stay under the radar!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:52 | 615968 Turd Ferguson
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Shame: I tell you what, that was an amazing day in the gold pit. Gold would have settled unch if it weren't for end of quarter Market on Close orders that took $2 out of it right at 1:30.

The EE has to be scratching their heads. Anytime in the past, they would have gotten $20+ taken out of the market which is at alltime highs in price and OI. Not today, however. Our buyer(s) of size continue to accumulate on any and all dips. The big, ugly black candle they were trying to paint on the chart is instead just a little line that is so thin you need a magnifying glass to see if its black or white. Hah hah hah hah hah! Fuck em!

Now, that said, the EE ain't going away anytime soon. With today's action in their back pocket, you can bet your ass they'll try to take it down when it approaches $1315 again. Anything they can do to scare the weak-handed recent longs, they'll try. But until and unless our buyer(s) of size decide to let them whack it just simply to create an even more compelling buy opportunity, the EE will continue to be frustrated. If I had to guess, because of today we may be pinned in through next week between 1315 on the upside and 1285 or son on the downside. We'll see.

On to your question about physical. You raise some interesting scenarios regarding a resumption of global growth and prosperity. Though certainly anything is possible, I think you have to err on the side of calamity. If you believe as I do that the world is awash in debt, public and private, to the point where only continued debasement of fiat enables that debt to be serviced, then physical gold is your answer. Do NOT, under any circumstances, hold an ETF like GLD and proceed to rest well at night believing you own gold. Buy physical whenever its reasonably attainable. The amount you hold should be commensurate with the degree to which you think fiat/keynesianism is doomed.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:17 | 616045 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Nice work Turd.  Besides these panic sellers, one also has to remember the effect of the race to the bottom of currentseas.  Even when someone comes in sellside, the weakened currentsea market pushes right back up.  I am still shocked we did not see any massive dumps in September.  Then again, this farce is so far gone that even those who have rigged the game know that they have to find a chair before the music stops. 

What do you think the October play is?  I have the DXY moving to 73 by November 15th (and to 66 by Dec 21st) with gold trading from $1300 to $1400 by November 1st, $1400 to $1600 by Nov 1st, and $1600 to $1850 by the solstice.  You have seen my numbers before, as this has been my frame for awhile, but I was wondering how you think it will go?

PS Flash Crash trends are in line today.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:00 | 616247 Turd Ferguson
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Hi, Jimi. I like the way you're thinking and I'm with you on the trend, though not quite up so fast. I've long maintained $1350 by Halloween and $1500 by 12/10/10 but if you're right about the dollar, your numbers may be low.

At any rate, it is truly all about the dollar at this point. Whether for trading or for long-term FA, dollar direction is certainly the key. That said, I've got to figure there's some dollarbounce in here shortly. Keeping in mind that all the currencies are pegged to each other, not to gold, so the dollar may rally a bit as the euro, yen and swissy decline some. In the end, however, hard not to see the USDX rolling down toward 72, probably sometime in November.

In the meantime, watch that Crude contract. Might be some money to be made if you can pick some up on a pullback near $78. Damn near every single other $-based commodity has been screaming higher. Looks like crude has finally decided to participate.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:36 | 616371 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Trading gold, silver, platinum, and oil is a perfect combo play.  Although they correlate, sometimes one out does the other, and there is no reason not to catch those moves.  As the dollar falls, the...EE (what is EE?) will spin the losses towards these "commodities" one at a time.  I think that the only thing stopping gold from hitting $2000 will be small players trying to sell what the MSM will undoubtedly call, "a top".  It will be an inversely ascending waterfall, hitting a few rocks on the way up.

I thought there would have been a dollar pullback around a week ago, but alas, the doll ain't as pretty as she used to be.  Other CBs are trying to devalue their currentsea, I think this works well for dollar devaluation.  The more foreingers buy, the more BS Bernanke "prints".  So CBs buy dollars to try to get their own down, but the question is, who will be left holding the bag?  Or better yet, who is not holding the bag?  The way I see it, anyone holding gold is in the clear, which is interesting once one considers that CBs have massive reserves in tungsten, er....I mean gold.  That and corporations should do well when the bond market moves from buying T-bills to buying corporate.  Watch corporate bonds track T-bills inversely when this all happens.  Note, I am not for this corporate takeover, but want to remind you that I think that this is the overall plan.  One that is too seldom discussed.  THIS, THIS WHOLE FIASCO, IS A CORPORATE TAKEOVER OF SOVEREIGN FREEDOMS.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:40 | 616418 Turd Ferguson
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Jimi, I took to calling the JPM-led, bullion bank cartel the "Evil Empire" (EE) some time ago. Its an image that always worked for me. The cartel is the Empire and their Death Star is the Comex. However, we "rebels" have the "force" of truth behind us and the laws of economics on our side.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 16:17 | 616533 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Nice!  I dig it.

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 15:02 | 618951 Fascist Dictator
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Thanks for asking Mr. Hendrix, I thought it meant Evil Economists.....

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:19 | 616059 Shameful
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Well I took to putting all my savings into the metals because of my lack of faith.  I see the breakdown as inevitable because it will break without growth.  We can't even handle a no growth model, the system was not built that way.  Thus far they have shown that they will do whatever it takes to try to save the present system so I can only assume that action will continue.  I'm not even saying there is peak oil or energy, but we need something soon to reignite growth up to the level where we can manage the debt loads.  Otherwise we are faced with a round of sovereign and private defaults which should rattle the currency market or a wave of debasement which should rattle the currency market.  It seems to me that both doors out of this involve the fiat faith-based currencies getting pulverized.

This buyer in size is clearly not playing ball with the big boys.  So any opinions on who it might be? Foreign central banks, billionaire investors?

And all in physical.  Resting in a safe in a home full of Rottweilers and guns.  It's about as safe as I can make it at the moment :)

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:56 | 616245 DoChenRollingBearing
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Great trialog Turd, Mr Lennon, Shameful.

Gold is BIG PART of what we as individuals can do to keep us and our families through this.

Let the EE try and bash gold down.  Let 'em do it, and when I come back, I buy, buy, buy.

Until we reach $55,000.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:58 | 616252 SGTbull07
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"So any opinion on who it might be? Foreign central banks, billionaire investors?"  - I trust you've already seen this, but in case not...  ~ SGT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPvBQ1qscpg

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:03 | 616288 Turd Ferguson
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Yes, I saw that earlier this week. Ole Jim Willie may very well be right on. The chart certainly looks to confirm what he says.

That said, the slick production and spooky music kind of detract, for me anyway, from the validity of his hypothesis.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 15:28 | 616368 The Rogue Economist
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One thing to watch out for. When the paper and physical markets disconnect - ie, the paper gold holders figure out that their paper claims are unenforcable - then the "market" price of gold may plunge to near zero as all of the paper holders attempt to sell that paper and it reveals it's real value of zero. Just know that if gold "prices" are plunging as a shortage is revealed, that's what's happening. Physical gold, while technically priced with the paper gold, will keep it's real value, so don't sell into that trap.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 16:16 | 616530 Strider52
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@Rogue:

If it's worthless, nobody would buy GLD or SLV.  

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:22 | 617111 StychoKiller
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Right, and Ben Franklin's pic on the $100 makes it a rival in value to a Rembrandt.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:36 | 616158 DosZap
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Turd,

I thought you were a Swaimee,the prices of Gld and Slvr dropped under 1,300.00,for about 10 mins...and I thought your train was on TIME.

Tommorrow they suceed.Until Monday morning.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 14:09 | 616024 Sudden Debt
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JUST FREAKING BUY SILVER AND GOLD!!

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:39 | 615573 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

bunch of gaps - 1109, 1090, 1049; downdraft time

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:39 | 615575 MrTrader
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Well said, Mike ! David Tepper´s comments are just ridiculous hilarious !

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:00 | 615634 DonnieD
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You've got to give that guy credit for correctly interpreting governmental action on stocks over the past year but that interview did have a "famous last words" tone to it.

It's almost like he was tempting karma to bitch slap him.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:23 | 617115 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Don't know just who he was trying to persuade to buy stocks, but it didn't work on me.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:55 | 615833 rocker
rocker's picture

That's what Elliott Wave's Robert Prechter said too. Since Jan. Feb. he has said the market should start a strong decline real soon.  Well, how wrong can one be. It is even rumored now that he is telling his regular subsrcibers to short and his institutinal investor to buy against it.  Prechter has also said the FED does not matter for more than a day or so.

Woooooo, How wrong can that statement be. Prechter even said to sell, (short), silver at 16 and 17.

I believe this, follow who has been right. Marc Faber, who gives free advise, says the FED will print like crazy every time the dow goes under 10,000.  He has said you will never get him to give up his Gold.  So far, he's the man. Go Marc.   

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:07 | 615870 Turd Ferguson
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Prechter is an A+ douchebag of the first order.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:20 | 615907 rocker
rocker's picture

Your too kind. How about a F- Scumbag.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:27 | 615924 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

That works, too.

He's a criminal thief praying upon unsuspecting dupes. A charlatan like a 19th-century traveling snake-oil salesman. He can "cure your ills" with two spoons full of his worthless, nonsense TA.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:24 | 617119 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Phrenology is making a comeback! </sarcasm>

Fri, 10/01/2010 - 01:26 | 617546 akak
akak's picture

And meanwhile, the establishment's shills and their media lackeys are frantically peddling the intellectual laudanum of pseudo-deflation on every streetcorner.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:46 | 615965 VWbug
VWbug's picture

faber has been the most right of any of the talking heads.

what i really like about him is he has a good time while proclaiming 'we're all doomed!'

he realizes it just means economies will go to hell, but the smart ones will still make money and live very well indeed.

i think i'll go join him in chiang mai soon.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:48 | 615970 ATG
ATG's picture

right up there with Paulson's $4000 gold and buy a home.

http://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Paulson+Sees+$4,000+Gold+and+Says+%22Buy+a+Home%22/6003620.html

 

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:43 | 615579 ro.sniper
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Someone tripped over HALs power cable and commodore lost its internet connection... probabbly IP address conflict.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:40 | 615949 Spastica Rex
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IPv6, bitches.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 11:46 | 615594 Goldilikes permabear
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"Does anyone realize how ridiculous an announcement of QE2 would look in that context?  It would probably freak people out and stocks could collapse.  Ok, so if I am right and they can’t do QE2 with asset prices at these levels what do you think is going to happen to stocks once people realize QE2 is not about to be launched?"

 

wtf is this guy on?  i vote that if someone even thinks there is a chance bennie wont unleash wave after wave of QE their article doesn't deserve to be posted.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 12:26 | 615727 brodix
brodix's picture

A paper tiger is still paper. We'll certainly find out what happens when it hits a stiff headwind, because eventually it will.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:15 | 615895 Cobb
Cobb's picture

I agree.  He's saying they're not going to announce QE2 because it "would probably freak people out".  Seriously?  That's all he's got?  Sure this is an interesting piece, but his whole premise of stock decline is based on the Fed not doing QE2 becuase it might freak people out.  No supporting or historical data...it just might freak people out.  Wow.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 17:05 | 616684 Bay Trader
Bay Trader's picture

I think the point he is trying to make is that the market has to decline from here before they can safely administer QE2. If we have a 2 month, 3-400 point selloff in the S&P, declining economic indicators, declining homeprices, and increasing unemployment, a lot more people will be against QE2.

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 13:55 | 615986 ATG
ATG's picture

i vote that if someone even thinks there is a chance bennie wont unleash wave after wave of QE their article doesn't deserve to be posted.

Amazing how quickly some people will discard the First Amendment.

Good luck with that QEII trade.

Fed chiefs said yesterday it ain't happening, thus cancelling out BSB's bluff.

0 needs better poker players.

http://www.northjersey.com/news/business/092910_Fed_officials_clash_over...

Thu, 09/30/2010 - 20:27 | 617125 StychoKiller
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There IS a difference between censorship and "deserving" a hearing/reading.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!