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Guest Post: Fed's Sense Of Humor, Amazing Foresight, And Inflation Risk
Submitted by Bo Peng
Fed's Sense of Humor, Amazing Foresight, and Inflation Risk
If you still have any doubts of Fed's bias towards sustaining bubbles and being late on fighting inflation, the latest release of 2005 Fed meeting minutes should help you see it more clearly.
There's
some good humor and cynicism there, which certainly deserves respect.
It's also obvious that many Fed officials and economists, including
Greenspan and Geithner, had by 2005 at the latest realized the bubble in
housing and the systemic risks posed by big banks (and Lehman and Bear
Stearns in particular). Impressive foresight.
But the good
news stops there. Were the bubble and risks just a goddamned joke to
them? They saw it quite well, made some smartass jokes and had some
good laughs, and did NOTHING.
When Bernanke said it takes 15
minutes to raise rates, he was being too modest. The final tally to
vote on the decision, I'm sure, takes at most one minute. But this is
an insult to the questioner and the audience, isn't it? The real
question is how long it would take from rising inflation to them seeing
it, then making the decision to act on it, then to inflation being
tamed. Instead of providing an honest assessment, Bernanke instead
pulled a Clinton what-is-is on us.
I'll be waiting anxiously in
2013 to see the release of 2008 meetings, but even more so on their
2011 meetings. I expect them to see very clearly, with their impressive
intellect and good sense of humor, the evidence of inflation in
everything except housing, growing bubbles in commodities and stocks,
economic polarization both domestically and globally, etc etc, and make
some smartass jokes about it, have some good hearty harhars, and do
NOTHING.
There's so much money in the system it's scary.
Non-real, hot money looking for real return. Everybody knowing anything
about the market knows this. The Fed of course knows this well. Every
bubble-bust cycle creates some winners and losers, but one sure loser
is the vast majority of middle class who have little chance of
benefiting meaningfully in the bubble phase and are inevitably hurt in
the bust phase. Every bubble-bust cycle knocks a portion of the middle
class a few steps down the economic ladder while minting some
super-rich. The Fed of course knows this well. I'm sure there's a
smartass joke there somewhere. They'll laugh about it, and do NOTHING.
I don't know when or how the bubble will go bust. But here's my plan:
1.
In the short term, I try to resist the urge to short stocks. Lots of
money still need to get into position, e.g., the hot money that got
pushed out from emerging markets.
2. Some day somebody will finish
positioning and call somebody at WSJ/CNBC/Bloomberg, and the world will
be horrified to find out there's a crisis all of a sudden. I'll be
balls deep in that trade.
3. I'll accumulate some gold (e.g. GLD)
and agricultural commodities (e.g. DBA) from pullbacks. These may not
necessarily do well during the bust phase, depending on the nature of
the excuses and the scope. But they will do well in the inevitable
inflation flare-up.
No matter how confident Bernanke is about
his ability to fight inflation in time, I'm exactly as confident that
he'll be too late. In fact, inflation is already here...nah, just
kidding. Harhar. Hehe. Yawn. Good night.
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Re the author's point 3:
DBA: yes, OK.
GLD: no, buy the real thing, physical only.
I am not a fan of anything that uses paper contracts where contango rape could get me. So I am not a fan of DBA. I agree that GLD should be avoided. GTU is trading at a discount to its NAV right now. It is worth a look. But it has a tendency to do that before they do a share offering and buy more gold. It might be saying that is on the way. Here is a cool spreadsheet on google for tracking the premiums live intraday:
https://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AsAy8x4Mq0aSdEsyeFFUTERtY2JHZ05uRU5PV21KZkE&hl=en&authkey=CPmaiOsH#gid=1
Do you have something you like vs. DBA?
Wheat and rice stored in buckets in the cellar?
Actually, nitrogen purged bags inside buckets with little BHT in there for good measure.
Seriously though, how to get exposure to grains w/o having to trade the surplus at Bartertown, and avoiding this "paper contango" risk?
Frankly, unless you have an extra 10 billion lying around to buy con agra, or a few thousand extra acres of arable property, I don't see it. Unless someone starts a fund called PDBA.
futures
RJA. It tracks the agricultural segment of the Rodgers (Jim) commodity index. It is an ETN, so it is a debt instrument (counterparty risk is present).
What the fuck...?! Get out of my head!!!
You might as well use leverage...DAG. A triple off the lows earlier in the year, almost. Not a long term hold, obviously.
London Central Bank model failure strikes again?
Could Britain be heading for a crash?Why worry? Those Federal Reserve guys are so smart that can manage inflation with such precision that it will never go over 2%. Even better, it they turn out to be wrong, they can stop it dead in its tracks - all it takes is 15 minutes !!! Talk about arrogance.
Stocks Overvalued by 50%What me worry? The Chairman has already explicitly stated that "Fed's actions led to stock rally". He outright acknowledges that the manipulation has had the intended effect.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/01/13/news/economy/bernanke_qe2_stock_market/i...
For example, he said that the Russell 2000 of small cap stocks is up over 30%, concluding that "A stronger economy helps smaller businesses".
So, since the Chairman has said that the Russell 2000 has raised 30%, we have nothing to worry about. The economy is strong. Anybody who thinks this is proof of a successful attempt at a failed central policy is probably speaking in hyperbole.
We are due for a pullback, it seems, based on this chart:
However, when you look at a longer term time frame, this thing could keep going for awhile. It could even start going "vertical" from here.
Of course, all Bernanke has to do is to utter something like "I can stop inflation cold, in 15 minutes", and send this thing crashing in an instant.
You say that as if he, or you for that matter, had any credibility left.
Listen, I am not saying I am a robo fan but to say robo does not have any credibility is ridiculous. Robo has rode this bull market equity run right up from the bottom or at least as long as I have been following this cite. That is credibility if you ask me. I wish I had invested in the market when it went back down to 9k, after I missed the run up from 6700.
The question is: where to from now?
He rode EQUITIES. In doing so, he has failed miserably. Equities have underperformed gold for ten years. TEN YEARS! He talks down sustainable investments at every opprortunity. He hates gold, and anyone who promotes it, even though he claims to own some.
Putting money into this market is like looting a burning building. Even the cash you have in your trading accounts is at risk. Even with all that risk he has taken, I have beaten the pants off of any possible return Robo has managed simply by owning physical silver. If I feel the need to get out of it, I can do so within 15 minutes by driving to one of several coin and bullion shops in my town, or any of the dozens of pawn shops if I am in a real rush and don't mind getting a little bit ripped off.
He's not trading an index !!!
How much is LuLu Lemon up in 6 months ( he was talking about this before I signed up again for ZH, he made a fucking killing on just this stock ).... Or the Irish bank he made 30% off in 3 days, posted beforehand that trade also ... Torching gold returns in weeks.
Look at Nvida up 100% in a month or two, ARMH,SPRD,MIPS I am making a killing since Dec 5th ..... You can make a killing buying low and with tons of research. The wave of tablets, smart phones can be seen from miles away .... ARMH,NVDA,SPRD killing it and will do so all year, easy money if you put in the time.
Yeah, no mention of the massive losses on others. No mention of how much was put into each position.
Even if he is making money, his ass is going to lose it all to a banking holiday. Looting the fucking Titanic.
He's making calls and they come through, thats the point. You talk about silver/gold/ben and thats really about it, bash ben and the fed, fine ..... Every bug can do this on ZH & they do.
But you talk like you put 1,000,000.00 on silver in 88' - Do we know what's in your account, no ?? It could be all talk. Robo- offers many tips,charts,help for all the traders on ZH.
I followed ZH from day one ( jesus2.0 ) on the old ZH. I was a 100% doomer. But now I have learned " don't fight the pigmen " and I have been doing great after the first 6 month learning/blowtorching curve ... Lol'
You need to learn the meaning of that phrase "don't fight the pigmen". To fight them means to be short. NOONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND IS SHORT THIS MARKET. It's the same as trying to short the Zimbabwe stock market in terms of Zimbabwe dollars. You would have been right that all the companies listed there were utter shit and not making any profit, but your shorts didn't pay off because the money from the presses was inflating the prices. The best way to retain your purchasing power was to hold foreign currency or gold. The same applies now, except foreign currency is just as suspect as our own. I like silver because it has a supply wall that the price is going to have to climb sometime in the next few months or years.
As to your other "points", I'm not sure why people feel they have to make things so complicated. Complexity kills. Keep it simple, stupid. Hold gold for insurance, hold silver for speculation, and keep food, water, guns, ammo, etc for war.
It doesn't matter if I invested a million dollars in 88 or a thousand in 2008. The fact is I have seen a huge return on what I invested, a return that can not be replicated in the stock market without a HUGE amount of risk. Sure, you can make a 100% return in a few seconds on the roulette table, and tell all your pals at ZH about it when it pays off, but the silence that comes when you lose everything is deafening.
By now, most peole know exactly where I stand in terms of investments. 95% silver, 5% gold. Plus all the guns, ammo, food, etc that everyone should have anyways. Whether it's a billion dollars worth or a hundred doesn't matter. The % return is what matters, and it has been staggering. The first silver I bought was around $20, when I was first learning about it. Less than a hundred oz, and compounded with the mistake of buying some numismatic crap. When it dropped to $8, I traded most of that crap for bullion, and got in in a big way (that bullion now stands at more than 300% appreciation). After QEI started, I went all in to my current levels. My current cost average is a little over $14. I add to my collection every month, no matter what the price is, though I will usually wait for OpEx or jobs report time, and always buy after the Globex smackdown. I do quite well. Live frugally, but my wealth is growing far faster than most anyone else's, even the so called elites. As I have said many times, owners of physical silver will be the next set of oligarchs. Even small holders can leverage themselves into great wealth with properly timed moves into gold, then land, or stocks, or any other severely distressed asset at the appropriate time.
I don't advocate buying miners, or any such thing, except with money that you are fine with throwing down the toilet. You might see a lot of paper profits, but that hasn't been my experience. Further, those profits are likely to be locked up in a banking holiday/flash crash/we take all your money, what are you gonna do about it type event (like surprise "windfall" taxes). Physical is the only way to go. And don't be foolhardy like me. Don't tell people you own it, even on the internet. I want everyone around me to be rich, as that will create the strongest possible society, meaning stability in my own future. Even if that means being in the middle class in a new United States full of prudent savers who own gold as savings, rather than being an oligarch in a de-industrialized, third world America.
OUTSTANDING post, tmosley!
I imagine your views, your attitudes, your experiences and your financial actions are mirrored by those of many here on ZH, although few have summarized them as succinctly and cogently as you did above. Thank you!
Outstanding post. I agree completely.
Keep it simple stupid ... I love 20% a clip , I'll be o.k. & keep posting the winners fouuuuur freeeeeeeeeee -
Yep that is a gooooood post.
Except for the fact that it conflicts with all his other self-congratulatory drivel he wrote at SeekingAlpha.
Before this run-up in silver, mosely was just another gold bug who barely even spoke about silver.
Now, suddenly, he's 95/5 weighted toward silver. And he has the cure for cancer and HIV.
*LOL*
Edit in:
A simple 5 minute search through SeekingAlpha lands me at this post of his:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/217852-rosenberg-gold-sell-off-is-a-buyi...
Even in August 2010, he was bragging about a fictitious cost basis for gold and telling everyone that it's foolish to be in anything EXCEPT gold.
"If you own anything EXCEPT gold, you're in big trouble...." - tmosley August 3, 2010
It's all just bullshit.
Mosley is a troll on payroll.
He's got most people here conned, but not me.
Yahweh is my Yireh.
Robo's comments over the past year have proven far more insightful to me than yours, Mr. Mosley.
RoboTroll's comments in the last year have almost without exception been nothing more than one-liner flyby posts invariably slamming gold, silver and the commodities, pimping equities with a VERY short-term chart attached to (feebly) try to bolster his case, and in general blind to if not supportive of the massively corrupt and unsustainable nature of our increasingly manipulated and fraudulent "markets" with all their puppet strings being gathered together by the likes of Bernanke, Dimon, Blankfein et al. Every sentiment he expresses here (to the extent that he does so at all) is mirrored by the empty-headed pro-establishment shills on CNBC, and at least from them such ridiculous, deplorable and cowardly propaganda can be viewed with some dark entertainment value.
RoboTroll is contemptible and valueless as a contributor to this forum.
If you call chart erections and tits "insightful". Follow Robo at your own risk. He is "sophisticated" and can "see the signs" of systemic breakdown, and can "get out" before it all comes crashing down. Even if what he says is true, it certainly isn't true of everyone else. STAY AWAY FROM EQUITIES, at least in the USA.
One other thing, everyone was saying equities was the thing to get into and get out of cash, that equities would ride the inflation wave. Though I bought at lot of gold, I wish I used the rest of my cash to buy the s and p. I would be up a 150 k or so. I blew it and now I am going in big time on the gold stocks, hoping to make a big run and make up some of that difference. So far so good.
robotTrader is the bernank's left nut. hwanger is the right. what the f?
No worries. Some HFT computer will divide by zero and erase the stock market. In fact I'll bet it'll be a zerohedge headline sooner or later.
HFT computer divides by zero, accidently erases all it's iWin apps.
Nooooooooo! Look at ZLC, CMG, these are signs of a robust economic recovery that is accelerating. Cheap diamonds and big burritos, and we want for nothing else. Together we thrive.
.... "Wednesday January 5, 2011 - Trade using surface transportation between the United States and its North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) partners Canada and Mexico was 14.9 percent higher in October 2010 than in October 2009, reaching $70.6 billion, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) of the U.S. Department of Transportation (Table 1). The value of U.S. surface transportation trade with Canada and Mexico in October 2010 remained 2.9 percent below the October 2008 level despite the 2009-2010 increase (Table 3). BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the value of U.S. surface transportation trade with Canada and Mexico rose 3.3 percent in October 2010 from September 2010 (Table 2). Month-to-month changes can be affected by seasonal variations and other factors. Surface transportation consists largely of freight movements by truck, rail and pipeline. In October, 86.1 percent of U.S. trade by value with Canada and Mexico moved on land. The value of U.S. surface transportation trade with Canada and Mexico in October was up 10.3 percent compared to October 2005, and up 36.4 percent compared to October 2000, a period of 10 years (Table 3). Imports in October were up 28.0 percent compared to October 2000, while exports were up 47.5 percent. ".......
..... " Wednesday, January 12, 2011 - The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) fell 0.3 percent in November from its October level, declining after two monthly increases, the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today (Table 1). BTS, a part of the Research and Innovative Technology Administration, reported that the Freight TSI rose 5.4 percent over the last 18 months, starting in June 2009, after declining 15.3 percent in the previous 10 months beginning in August 2008. The index has increased in 14 of the last 18 months (Table 2). Through the first 11 months of 2010, the index declined 1.0 percent (Table 3). With next month's release, BTS will conduct a comprehensive revision. The revision will result in changes to the 2010 numbers, especially for those months that have not undergone the monthly revision and are currently classified as preliminary. For additional historic data, go tohttp://www.bts.gov/xml/tsi/src/index.xml
The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments in ton-miles, which are then combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.
The November Freight TSI of 98.5 is a 5.4 percent increase from the recent low of 93.5 reached in May 2009. In May 2009, the index was at its lowest level since June 1997. The November Freight TSI is down 12.7 percent from its historic peak of 112.9 reached in May 2006.
Although the index rose 0.1 percent from November 2009 to November 2010, it remains below the level of every other November since 2001 when it was 97.6 (Table 4). January 2010 was the first month since July 2008 in which the Freight TSI exceeded the level of the same month of the previous year. The index has exceeded the previous year's level every month since January but still remains below the level of recent earlier years. " ...........
Correct as long as the spigot is open. And it is right now.
Even with the spigot open we are overdue for at least a 23% correction for the move from 1010 in the S&P.
After that, afterburners on again until the Fed stops or the world decides to "readjust" the current status quo.
I think he tried that on December 6th Robo, no dice. Bernanke's attempt at being almighty overlord of the global financial, agricultural, precious metals, equities, debt, etc. markets is going to fail catastrophically. It's already killing people in North Africa and the Middle East.
Whether Ben means well or not, his myopic Princeton view of the world is likely to end disastrously. The man can not possibly manage his way out of this, he is in balls-deep now. There is no going back for Ben.
Did anyone else catch this @ Bloomberg?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/fed-s-rosengren-says-stimulus-n...
Does anyone else find it ironic that he gave this speech at a casino?
No. A struggling, almost bankrupt casino is the appropriate setting.
+10 - they love symbolism ;)
Yep, the public acceptance case is being made for QE3 or another job-killing stimulus bill. Does this come as any surprise?
Listen...I can't get this out of my head!
http://theopeningrange.blogspot.com/
A great rant from Rasputin this morning over at Wall Street Bear.
Pretty much sums it up.
......................................................
More staggering statistics from Doug Noland's "Credit Bubble Bulletin"...
Rasputin - Sat, Jan 15, 2011 - 08:45 AM
...can be found here:
http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/creditbubblebulletinview?art_id=10492
And here are the most-important digits on which to focus, followed by Rasputin's summary/conclusion:
"Federal Reserve Credit jumped $21.6bn to a record $2.432 TN (10-wk gain of $151.7bn).
Fed Credit was up $207bn from a year ago (9.3%).
Elsewhere, Fed Foreign Holdings of Treasury, Agency Debt this past week (ended 1/12) rose $6.2bn to $3.350 TN.
'Custody holdings' were up $400bn from a year ago, or 13.5%.
Global central bank "international reserve assets" (excluding gold)
- as tallied by Bloomberg – were up $1.60 TN y-o-y, or 21.0%, to a
record $9.243 TN."
(Ras Summary): As the THREE YEAR anniversary of the Bear
Stearns implosion (which occured the weekend of March 16th, 2008)
rapidly approaches, Ras continues to watch in slack-jawed amazement as
the global economic system continues on its awesome growth trajectory.
Where is the "Great Disintegration" about which a Mad Monk was
ranting and raving nearly three years ago? Surely NOT anywhere to be
found in these numbers.
In fact, overall credit has GROWN month-after-month and year-after-year, every year, since that fateful weekend in 2008.
Nor did the "Fannie and Freddie Big Bang" of September, 2008 (now
twenty-eight months ago), which supposedly imploded the entire world's
financial system, have any impact whatsoever on the overall growth of
the world's economy or credit.
Stunning, staggering, statistics.
Also, the world's stock markets have recovered nicely during this
three-year period--with most indices at or near the levels they were
right before Bear Stearns blew up.
And, contrary to the screechings of the gold-shilling crowd, there has
been NO "Gold and silver to da moooooooon!" in terms of exploding PM prices in this interim period. Gold is up a measly
thirty-percent or so since March, 2008 and silver up a measly
fifty-percent...both gains TOTALLY BLOWN AWAY by the exponential rises
of AAPL, AMZN, NFLX, and many, many other stocks. (And the stock capital
gains are taxed at approximately ONE-HALF the 28% confiscation imposed
on PM gains by Uncle Thug.)
Speaking of everybody's favorite Uncle, neither have interest rates
on his tremendous amount of debt issued skied, either. In fact, despite
Uncle issuing TRILLIONS of fiatscos of additional IOUs, interest rates
across the entire curve remain at near-record lows.
Not to mention that the U.S. Nightcrawler has hardly collapsed
during this three-year period. In fact, despite Uncle's debt orgy noted
above, and the Fed increasing their balance sheet by NEARLY TWO TRILLION
FIATSCOS, the U.S. dollar is HIGHER than it was in 2007.
Go figure.
(Ras Conclusion): So, once again Rasputin must admit that
his constant calls for "imminent" scroomage were totally off-base. The
economic world DIDN'T end in March, 2008.
Nor did TEOTWAWKI arrive after September, 2008.
Or in February, 2009 (when Citi AND BofA both, simultaneously, failed outright).
Heh, a bear/doom-and-gloomer/gold-clutching CIGA and GATA supporter could grow old, sick and
tired waiting for the economic Armageddon that never quite seems to
arrive.
Therefore, Rasputin concludes that his slow, painful migration away
from the perma-scroom camp and back into the safe, comfy confines of
sheepledom is the correct course of action.
Because the facts show, irrefutably, that it just doesn't pay to
sit on the sidelines and wait for the ultimate demise of the Ponzi
pyramid system that is the fiat/fractional reserve/central
banking/securitization/derivatives system.
It's simply not gonna happen.
("But any minute now, we swear!!!"...scream the perma-gloomers and gold-shilling gangs, LOL.)
Somewhat bogus analysis.
Credit has continued to rise because non paying mortgages are carried on balance sheets at full price and not labeled **default** per FASB changes early 2009. Were all the mortgages in default actually displayed in default, one can be confident the credit measures would not be showing growth -- neither at the banks, nor at the GSEs.
He has it wrong. The Fed is replacing that defaulted mortgage money via QE and the accounting standards are not forcing the relevant entities to state the value of their mortgage portfolios accurately.
After 24 months of this, even the participants are believing it's legitimate.
It doesn't really matter. In the end, only oil matters.
I have been reading "RAZ" for a awhile now.
He forgot more than 99.9% on ZH, book it.
Clearly we should all take investing advice from Alzheimer's patients.
He was 100% doomer rolling into the crisis , he was early & told all " get the fuck out ".
Try talking MBS/CDO's/CMBS/ABS/ABX/PVC's with the guy .... Lol'
3 years since gold and silver blew up a fractional reserving bullshit bank. That's too long. It needs to get out there and kill something big.
"If I wanna be repeatedly shit on. I'll go make dutch porn."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwtu7jThDm4&feature=fvw
You know what really surprises me? That my rhetoric has not become widely popular with you. I know I am totally flogging my dolphin, but really, what is not accurate and cool about saying this is a corporate takeover. The majors are dominating all sectors. It is the easiest investment strategy ever devised by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets since the tech bubble (holla back Greenie).
It is very simple, it is the last stage of the corporate takeover.
No the major's are not dominating shit. They are kicking mythological ass. It's all smoke mirrors ponzi enron fraud shell companies laundered money from the fed's ugly stinky colon.
Remember that breeze of unity conciousness from east to west. Well an ill fucking wind is blowing. Let's see how lies on the eastern hemisphere turn into truth on the western hemisphere.
Meet intel's largest supplier in the asia-pacific market.
http://teledataesys.wordpress.com/
The court has yet to fix trial dates for the case. Mr Goel is a celebrated businessman with humble beginnings. In 1995, he left India for Singapore and started out as a sales coordinator at a computer parts distributor at Sim Lim Square. In 2000, he formed eSys and in less than five years, he built up a US$2-billion IT products distributor with offices in over 30 countries. His work also took on a social enterprise dimension, as he started selling low-cost computers aimed at the underprivileged.
It's got the Method of Operation of the Powers That Be. An insincere desire to help the poor. Something rising from dust to massive porportions in a very short time. And not dong a damn thing for the poor but making intel post RECORD sales figures in the mist of a recession.
And I haven't found the hook for apple yet. But I can tell you for sure. Those bastards are lying out dey ass.
That is what I meant. 'The "takeover" is not re'al.' Touche.
The trend is that when gold pulls back, equities pulls back. What should that tell you?
not gonna junk you but you sure deserve it. Noland was one of the first guys to talk about CDS and derivatives, the guy who said blithely that the private sector was creating debt faster than the Federal Reserve, (problem) the guy who noted that hot money was flowing from the center to the margin, (emerging markets) and that was a good thing probably, he also puts a number on how much new debt has to be created just to keep the system afloat, he calls the current bubble, the government finance bubble, and predicts it will not end well, unlike you sir, he has something other than a fifteen minute chart to guide him. unlike Bob Prechter for instance, Noland recognizes the government tools allow them to kick the can down the road. Nolands ambivalent style completely contradicts your description of him. his weekly report gives depth and feel to the overall market view, and summary, which is not always as long and full of air as yours, is usually short, and many times its Just the Facts. Heres the final paragraph in this week Issues 2011, which is long because it takes the entire year into consideration
As a member of the perma-gloomers and gold-shilling gang, I share this personal reply.
My patience with our Government's Ponzi scheme is active. I have moved my family to a rural stretch of Northern California. Here we grow an ever increasing proportion of the food we eat. We have chickens and sell/give their eggs to our neighbors. Although the official numbers are small, real inflation is high. Therefore, we store the value of our labor in a variety of commodities on hand: gold, silver, raw wheat, corn, and rice. Our water comes from a well equiped with a hand pump, if necessary. We choose to handgrind the grain for our daily bread.
Although I could share additional details, my point is this: one lifestyle choice. We live intentionally. We do so as the expression of our optimism in the principle of self-reliance held by like minds within a rural community setting. This optimism is reflective, however.
It reflects our perma-gloom conviction that the larger welfare/warfare state of affairs is unsustainable. But even if sustainable, that state of affairs, in our opinion, is still undesirable. We side with the gold-shilling gangs so far only as to hold precious metals on hand because they represent to us a real store of value. Although other financial instruments have their place in our portfolio of lifestyle choices, commodities in general occupy the central place for now.
In closing, whether TEOTWAWKI arrives in some apocalyptic moment is irrelevant. Our faith is affirmative, our lifestyle active. I happen to be re-reading Milton at the moment. Borrowing from his thoughts, then, this would best sum up our raison d'etre: to make our lives a noble poem.
Opinions on this differ, but in general what you have done is put together materials for a mob of 10,000 to come and take from you. Being armed and having ammo won't address 10,000 who arrive when you're asleep, or even when you're awake.
The key is to keep your mouth shut and have a place, likely not "home" (your neighbors have no reason to keep their mouths shut about what you have, or even if they did, morons are everywhere and they talk), in which you can hide for 1 winter.
Winter is your salvation. Winter will kill the 10,000. Then you can try doing things that will keep your family alive long term. And the bad news is, gold is not a player in that inevitability.
"Winter is your salvation. Winter will kill the 10,000."
http://endtimesreport.com/kerosene.html
Interesting. But your reply suggests that your understanding is limited by the narrow scope of your experience. Assuming, however, that your insight is the measure of my post, this would be my answer.
We see no reason to plan our lives around such a winter of discontent. Living, not the preparation for life, is our salvation. Being unsophisticated, my wife and I have chosen to live deliberately in the way I have described. We have done so after what light we have. If, like madness, however, a thief steals in at midnight, then we feel the integrity of our lives will remain.
Besides, a mob needs no reason, has none, responds to none:
Cinna the poet. I am not Cinna the conspirator.
4th Plebian. It is no matter his name's Cinna...
3rd Plebian. Tear him, tear him!
Consider also:
1. Our neighbors are similarly stocked.
2. Our community is strong, close and spirited.
3. We live far from the madding crowd. As the wolves might weave, then, it would take 45 such miles before your 10,000 arrived.
Since the survival rate for everyone is zero, moreover, we refuse to lead lives of quiet desperation. Nor will we hedge gentle into that good night. Blessings, Mark
The 10,000, or more, who hear of your bizzare collection of literary quotes, may be even more inspired to come wipe out your genetic line.
You have already talked too much about it. Your community will feed the 10,000 for a few weeks, while they rape when bored, and then you'll all die.
You'll die knowing two things:
You stayed true to your vision and
Your kids are dead because you did.
When the 10,000 loom, you win only by invisibility.
The only genetic line that'll need wiping is the one down your backside when I gene your jeans, CrackisOpen. And then, once more into your breeches, withall.
All one needs to do is kill a couple hundred of them, as they approach, and then shoot the rest when they stop to eat!
This Ras person is right, Fed is going to keep printing money and pouring it into equities as long as possible.
That's where ALL the equity growth has come from since '08. Friekin money printing. And yes they can keep it up
...until there's a worldwide collapse of confidence in the dollar, which they have no control over. The Dow may be 35,000 with unbelievable profits being made, then one day dollar confidence collapses worldwide and that 35,000 Dow is suddenly worthless.
That's how it will play out.
I like the author's conversational style, his youthful enthusiasm, the brevity of his posts.
In the Good Doctor's (Hunter S. Thompson, not the ZH poster) take on the Bard's famous quote, he said, "Brevity is the soul of wit, you soulless, witless bastard."
I like when someone uses the words 'soul' and 'bastard' in the same sentence. And for some reason, I'm reminded of Gulliver and the creative way he used to douse the lilliputian palace fire. The spirit of irreverance, I guess. Thanks, tmosley.
I kind of prefer the response of Dorothy Parker who said, "No, brevity is the soul of lingerie."
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. One thing we can be sure of is that the value of the dollar will be worth 100 cents
Depends if you melt them down.
that's against the law by the way
' They saw it quite well, made some smartass jokes and had some good laughs, and did NOTHING.' right. & therein lies the horror of all of this. they don't care ! washington doesn't care ! no one cares ! SO, WE MUST CARE ABOUT OURSELVES & extricate ourselves from the system......"consign them to the dustbin of history. " We don't need their stinking system !
Does the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK & WASHINGTON D.C. despise the AMERICAN CITIZEN ?........ that couldn't possibly be true, could it ? That our own honored lawmakers & central bankers despise us Americans ?
Yeah, that's the real takeaway message from the Best of the Feds minutes. Your problems are your own and they find them funny. Don't stop HELOCs just yet because the people are going to need them to put gas in their SUVs! Marie Antoinette couldn't have said it better.
http://dissidentvoice.org/Nov05/Carpenter1102.htm
WE don't need THEM!
Why does anyone here want to afford The Ben Bernank the convenient excuse of naïvety? Why not call him what he appears to be... A pathological liar!
Celente's label for Ben and his ilk: sociopaths. Fitly applied, I think.
Unfortunately Spalding Smailes was wrong.
I did not buy LULU (I don't chase IBD mo-mo stocks, way too volatile and dangerous for me)
I did not buy AIG, IRE (I don't trade low cap junk stocks)
I sold most of my longs at the end of the year, and all I have left is my dividend paying stocks like VZ, MO, T, HD, ERF, etc.
However, if we get a decent correction, I will be buying these:
...........................................
Money Supply piling into iPads, Smartphones, Netbooks
RobotTrader - Sat, Jan 15, 2011 - 11:36 AM
Yep, who would have believed that the exponential growth in credit which Ras pointed out today would actually exit silver and gold, and pile into gimcracks?
Want proof?
Look no further than the chip equipment and testing stocks which absolutely rocketed to new 2-year highs on 4x average volume.
Because INTC is announced that it is doubling its chip foundry expansion and spending $9 billion in capex in 2011.
Yep, due to an overwhelming demand for iPads, smartphones, netbooks, computers, tablets, and all kinds of other gimcracks.
Clearly, the supply demand curve for gold, silver and oil has peaked, and there is now an acute shortage of electronic toys.
So Wall St. responded by dumping PM stocks en-masse and piled into these stocks instead.
I would put ARMH, NVDA on your list also ... JMO they will be in everything.
ARM has a great business model ( architectural license - )w/nvida, microsoft, google ect ....& Nvida graphics chips are knee deep in the handhelds,tablet market.
.... "As you may have seen, NVIDIA announced today that it is developing high-performance ARM-based CPUs designed to power future products ranging from personal computers to servers and supercomputers.
Known under the internal codename “Project Denver,” this initiative features an NVIDIA CPU running the ARM instruction set, which will be fully integrated on the same chip as the NVIDIA GPU. This initiative is extremely important for NVIDIA and the computing industry for several reasons.
NVIDIA’s project Denver will usher in a new era for computing by extending the performance range of the ARM instruction-set architecture, enabling the ARM architecture to cover a larger portion of the computing space. Coupled with an NVIDIA GPU, it will provide the heterogeneous computing platform of the future by combining a standard architecture with awesome performance and energy efficiency.
ARM is already the standard architecture for mobile devices. Project Denver extends the range of ARM systems upward to PCs, data center servers, and supercomputers. ARM’s modern architecture, open business model, and vibrant eco-system have led to its pervasiveness in cell phones, tablets, and other embedded devices. Denver is the catalyst that will enable these same factors to propel ARM to become pervasive in higher-end systems.".................
...... " Microsoft’s announcement that it is bringing Windows to ultra-low power processors like ARM-based CPUs provides the final ingredient needed to enable ARM-based PCs based on Denver. Along with software stacks based on Android, Symbian, and iOS, Windows for ultra-low power processors demonstrates the huge momentum behind low-power solutions that will ultimately propel the ARM architecture to dominance.
An ARM processor coupled with an NVIDIA GPU represents the computing platform of the future. A high-performance CPU with a standard instruction set will run the serial parts of applications and provide compatibility while a highly-parallel, highly-efficient GPU will run the parallel portions of programs.
The result is that future systems – from the thinnest laptops to the biggest data centers, and everything in between — will deliver an outstanding combination of performance and power efficiency. Their processors will provide the best of both worlds, while enabling increased battery life for mobile solutions. We’re really excited to help engineer smarter brains for the next major era in computing." .................
..... " Smartphones Are Replacing PCs Future PC erosion is certain. Think about this: smartphones in 2012 will have four 2.5-gigahertz processor cores and exhibit about the same computing performance as a current business laptop. That’s next year! The undisputed leader of smartphone chips is England’s ARM Holdings (NasdaqGS: ARMH). ARM’s chip designs are used in 95% of the world’s mobile phones and more than a quarter of all electronic devices. I say “chip designs” rather than “chips” because ARM’s business model is based on licensing its technology, not on manufacturing the chips themselves.
If Intel thinks that its Atom chips can break ARM’s stranglehold on the smartphone market, it is being delusional. Intel’s strength is in developing the fastest, most powerful microprocessors. That strength is not applicable to smartphones." ......
...... "What ARM brings to the table is its technological expertise in low-power chips, a technology that Intel has never been good at and continues to struggle with. Why is low power important? Microprocessor chips are the brains of a computing device. As the brain, they are always working and generating heat. Small computing devices lack the space to provide their microprocessor chips with fans or other cooling mechanisms. Heat buildup can be very damaging. The chips themselves must stay cool enough on their own; otherwise, the chips will burn out and the device won't work. High-performance chips that are able to work on low power generate less heat and don't burn out. In other words, for smartphones and other small devices, thermal design is more important than computing power. As Pete Hutton, a vice president of technology and systems at ARM, recently stated in a somewhat condescending manner, Intel simply isn't good at thermal design: " ........
Cheap tablets and cheap smartphones, with near-laptop benchmark performance (due to better processors AND smarter, more efficient software and graphics chips) are on the way, and they will cannibalize a good chunk of PC/Mac sales. We are getting closer to the day when a 7" to 10" tablet is a viable replacement for a notebook for a significant % of the population, and these devices will be relatively inexpensive or free due to subsidizies of cell phone company subscriptions.
However, the real threat to cable/internet AND cell phone carriers is going to be Google or another company that figures out how to provide free hotspots in home or elsewhere, on a consistent and plentiful basis, which may do to VOIP and cell carriers what VOIP did to landlines.
I look forward to the distant day when the introduction of every new and slightly updated igadget is not greeted as the Second Coming of Christ.
This obsession with electronic toys is just another manifestation of the social rot and spiritual emptiness of modern American life. Take any one of the compulsively texting, cellphone-addicted teens of today back 30 years, and they would undoubtedly have been diagnosed with obsessive-compulsive disorder, if not one or more pathological neuroses. But such mental disorder and social dysfunction is what passes for "normal" in i-merika today.
Robo you are such a wet towel, you are killing my high. Jesus if silver pulls back anymore Ima hafta buy some.
Hey AIG's new CEO has said that the government is going to make a profit on the bailout when it gets repaid within three years for sure.
That's tremendous news for the elite because they've convinced the American public that bailouts were darn good! No need for secrecy anymore, it's all out there, baby!
In fact there's now a growing sense that perhaps this is the way to solve the Federal Budget Deficit: if the US government invests in the entire S&P 500, there's no reason not to think that there will be budget surplus for as far as the eye can see. It's beginning to dawn on some powerful people that the way to go forward is make the bailouts pro-active and avoid the distress while maximizing the growth!
And the biggest bonus of all: with all that money from profits there's more than a passing chance that taxes would never need to be paid ever again! And that's just for starters. US supported businesses could grow domestically and globally and kill the competition. This is truly the next phase of the New Capitalism!
"In fact there's now a growing sense that perhaps this is the way to solve the Federal Budget Deficit: if the US government invests in the entire S&P 500, there's no reason not to think that there will be budget surplus for as far as the eye can see."
Why bother with a mere investment? Fascism by any other name would smell as sweet.
A link I refer to quite often to track all the money we're making off the bailouts!?!?!? Even taking the "so-called earnings" as simple return of capital we're still in the hole 417.4 Billion. Oooooh, if only I could get such a deal!?!?!? Whenever I hear anyone say, "But look at all the money we're making!" I direct them straight to - http://bailout.propublica.org/main/summary
Good post! And spot on!
I can't believe that Americans aren't more pissed that they're paying the interest on money the Fed printed and lent to foreign banks.
Boggles the mind. Epic criminality, not only unpunished but essentially unnoticed. We're a debauched culture in so very many ways.
Really? I certainly believe it. Americans are the stupidest fucks on the planet.
Americans stupid?
Who imports real wealth by paying with pieces of paper that other countries are eager to take?
Who has their debt denominated exclusively in the currency that they control and is not backed by anything but accepted worldwide (for now)?
Who has their debt set up so cozily with primary dealers and the Fed circle jerk that they can control their own interest rates regarless of external demand for quite some time?
Who will come out better off out of this crisis, even after a major inflation?
My friend, do not mix all Americans in the same bag. Like every nation, they have intelligent people and dumbasses, but make no mistake, for now they have everyone over a barrel still. For now....
thing is, everyone is worrying now, and slowly buying in as Ben inflates the universe.... there are no shorters, and no sellers....
and it is already an insanely crowded trade.
i'm in cash, on the sidelines, and going to stay there.
And in other news Fitch just downgraded Greece to Junk. Well, curious to see how that works out on Monday.
Bernanke is a dangerous man.
He has the patological tendency to deny that he can be wrong with QE.
He is now the most powerful man of earth with the real Weapons of Mass
Destruction and is crazy that no one in has stoped this guy!