Guest Post: Funeral Music For The Euro-zone?

Tyler Durden's picture

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Confused Indian's picture

Why is Euro shooting up today then?

Confused Indian's picture

Is it a pre-funeral custom or slp on face of the article? 

dlmaniac's picture

Hard to say who sleeps with fishes first b/t Euros and US$. I think Euros beats US$ by a nose.

Confused Indian's picture

Nice technical diagram Sir. But unfortunately this technical picture is status quo for last 6 months and only those who dared to go short or sold off their holdings have sanked. The slogan of the decade is "dont fight the fed" and "buy the dip" and "technicals and fundamentals are for fools"

Sudden Debt's picture

I stopped looking for a sence in this market at newyear eve 2008

erik's picture

Where is it going?  That's the answer I want.  ~1.36 seems to be likely, maybe even by Wednesday.  1.36 is the 50% re-trace of the down move since QE2 day.  Look for consecutively weaker green candles on EUR-USD over next couple of days as supporting evidence.

At that point, you'll have very over-extended stock markets per RSI and sentiment readings, and we'll be ripe for a correction.

Russell 2000 will likely be most overbought market.

erik's picture

Remember, Wednesday is the EU/IMF bailout vote in Ireland.  Right now it is expected to pass by a narrow margin.  That sets up "buy the rumor" in the Euro right now.  Then a quick final ramp on the news, before selling commences again.

If Euro bond spreads stay even or grow over the next couple of days, that'll be more support for going short the Euro at 1.36.

knukles's picture

How It Works.

The Euro is shooting up because all of the EU/EMU member countries are going to contribute real money to an emergency bailout fund, to be funded from proceeds of bond issues that they each float in the bond markets and contribute the money they raised in the bond market to the emergency bailout fund to buy the bonds they just sold in the bond market to raise the funds to fund the bailout fund to buy their bonds they just sold in case nobody else will buy the bonds they just sold.

Elegance.  Pure fucking brilliance.

Reggie Middleton's picture

It really gets interesting if traders truly percieve that Spain is going to default. See http://boombustblog.com/reggie-middleton/2010/12/13/will-spain-default-the-answer-is-not-that-hard-to-determine-if-you-take-and-objective-look-at-the-numbers-and-your-recent-history/

Even if Spain were to receive assistance in the form of a bailout from the IMF/EU, the problem is simply kicked down the road, and not rectified. Again, the year 2013 is the magic number and the day of reckoning.

 

Rogerwilco's picture

"Permanent rescue mechanism", aka fascism. You go girls!

nonclaim's picture

Like a intensive care unit to a critical patient...

Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Permanent rescue mechanisms will also mean automatic mechanisms, thus bailouts would no longer need to be debated in Parliament and tried in the court of public opinon. (Kinda' like Fanny and Freddy here). There is nothing to see here *cough, cough*, just the end of, *cough* life as you know it!!!!!

PaperWillBurn's picture

The High Card is the Freegold card. Buy physical gold hand over fist until it breaks free of it's paper chains. The new price wipes out Euro debt problems (minus Ireland) and not only keeps the Eurozone intact but makes the Euro the go to currency as their gold reserves give the euro much greater credibility than the $.

shortus cynicus's picture

New Deutschemark and other country-currencies would be grate deal for EU, competitive currencies are best for a market, assuming that Banksters are forced by low to lower exchange rates ( Onda or some peer-to-peer exchange web sites can do that, so why not Banking Cartel ? ).

For securing confidence and making accounting books clear, the introducing of new Deutschemark should start with figuring out, where and why have Bundesbank lost its claimed 3200 tones of "Gold holdings".

francismarion's picture

Germany seemed to think that the weakened euro was a good idea as long as their exports could burgeon. But now that Germany has to bail out the peripheral nations, the whole thing is up in the air.

There can be no fiscal union without political union. United States of Europe?

Rogerwilco's picture

"United States of Europe?"

Deutschland über alles has a nice ring to it.

RobotTrader's picture

NY Composite is now at a new 2-year high.

Sudden Debt's picture

funny you Americans constantly seem to forget that a lot of your states that are way bigger then most European countries are also bankrupt. :)

What if the last few states that still have growth would cut of the sucker states?

Here in Europe we just say: Those Americans can print whatever they want, SO DO WE!

 

Rogerwilco's picture

No, we haven't forgotten their insolvency, we're just too busy buying the dips to pay much attention right now.

Shameful's picture

There are a few differences.

1. Masters of the Ponzi Universe.  America can generate a lot of innovation.  For the last generation or more we have focused on creating nothing but fraud, so we are really good at it.  I daresay that in ponzinomics we are unparalleled.

2. $$$ for Goodies.  The world is retarded and refuses to realize that we will print worthless dollars to buy their assets till the sun burns out or they free themselves from the shackles of slavery, whichever comes first.  And for some reason dollars are the preferred form of global funny money.

Totally agree that many US states are totally irreparable bankrupt.  There is no way to even fix them in our legal structure.  However EU may still fail first because we are masters of extend and pretend and the world will still accept freshly printed dollars for their goods and labor.

dark pools of soros's picture

any chance the real Ben will be this candid in his next meet with Ron Paul??

MachoMan's picture

Sudden Debt, the biggest problem I see with this approach is that the "growth" states would need to be able to defeat the standing army of the united states.

Jason T's picture

LaRouche suggests, the entire world monetary system is going down by around Christmas time. This guy is classic.

 

http://larouchepac.com/node/16785

dnarby's picture

Couldn't spare an hour to watch that, but I think he's right - Just a year early.

Cdad's picture

The criminal syndicate known as Wall street has kicked the crap out of the US dollar to the tune of almost 1% [against the basket], and rallied the laughable Euro against the dollar a fully penny, and the result of this damn near crime is a 3 pt. bump in the S&P.  Great!  Seems like a fabulous deal.

Oil hits a new year high, to be followed by surging natgas prices, soon enough, and farmers wake up each morning shocked at their suddenly good fortune selling corn at $5...while Bank of America tries desperately to cover its criminal tracks and burn the bridges behind them "dumping" mortgages.

And The Bernank continues to fabricate more and more US dollars while calling all of this "the wealth effect."

Do I have all this right?  I am trying to figure out if I actually missed my alarm and am still sleeping.  Please let me know.

 

dark pools of soros's picture

spot on...  i think it is time to get around to sell sell sell all my extra crap on ebay and craigslist and then buy gold/silver

erik's picture

lol, cdad.  nice recap. 

Sean7k's picture

Since the captive populations of the US and Europe are incapable of paying said debts, it is really a question of when the time comes, will the people revolt when saddled with the cost of the bank's criminal actions? 

Will the people turn to their own currency,gold or silver, and walk away from the machinations of the central bankers? 

Will a two tier monetary system develop that works locally in metals and internationally in new forms of money substitutes? 

If governments lose control over money, how do they maintain control over the people they hope to rule? Because outside of murderous slaughter, state starvation and water witholding, the state is incapable of controlling the given populations- especially in the US with the number of weapons available.

It appears they are betting the sheep will remain sheep through the slaughter, we shall see...

AnAnonymous's picture

Since the captive populations of the US and Europe are incapable of paying said debts,

 

That is the point. A  point the article ignores.

'Defaulting' does not make the debt more manageable when you cant pay the debt, that is direct repo.

All that is done is a theater of illusions performance: people pretending they can pay the debt to put off the great revelation they can not pay back.

Under this light, the European issue is totally another one. It is  make or break time in Europe, forced march towards the European State. There is no other way out. 

Quinvarius's picture

All this Euro bear nonsense.  The Dollar bounces and everyone suddenly forgets how to do math.  We borrow more every month than it would take to bail out all the PIIGS put together.  The Eurozone will only dissolve if there is a war.

GoinFawr's picture

Hahah! Ain't it the truth! Denial loves a distraction...

carbonmutant's picture

ROME (Reuters) – Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said rebel lawmakers could pitch Italy into the middle of the euro zone's debt crisis if they voted against him in a no-confidence vote on Tuesday.

Speaking in the Senate a day before a showdown that could force him from office and trigger early elections, Berlusconi said his government had kept Italy out of the turmoil seen in Ireland or Greece but that the threat of instability remained.

"It is madness to initiate a crisis without any foreseeable solutions," he said.

A year of party infighting and corruption and sex scandals has hit Berlusconi's leadership credentials while a scandal over waste management in Naples has made piles of uncollected garbage an embarrassingly visible symbol of the government's weakness.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Has Ben 'quadruple down on that which has never worked before in the history of global commerce & economics because I want to be a pioneer risking taxpayer money' Bernanke opened the gates of currency swaps far and wide again?

(Yes, the nickname above is long, but it works....it works for Ben)

TexDenim's picture

The Germans have more to lose from a dying Euro than they have to gain. They may want us to believe the Euro is on its way out, but they will change their tune at the last minute, after they have extracted the concessions they want.

dark pools of soros's picture

the Germans or the German Banks?    the Germans make tons of stuff people want so they will get outta the storm while others drown 

TexDenim's picture

I meant the German nation. Yes, that's exactly right, they are a nation of manufacturers, and they do it near-perfectly. But they benefit from the Euro in the sense that the Greeks can't change the terms of the game by devaluing their currency. If Europe goes back to multiple currencies, the biggest long term loser will be the Germans, because they won't be able to make long term contracts they can rely on.

francismarion's picture

According to a poll conducted in Germany, found in 'The Local' (German news in English):

"Sixty percent of those polled said they preferred the euro, while one-third said they longed for the return of the Deutsche mark, the survey for broadcaster ARD found.

The nostalgia for the former German currency was highest among less-educated. Forty-nine percent said they wanted to fill their wallets with the mark once again after 11 years with the euro.

Meanwhile 80 percent of the highly educated participants said they were against the reinstatement of the old bills and coins."

                                                                       -The Local

Goldenballs's picture

Believe this crap and you believe anything.Germany is awash with safe deposit boxes stuffed with Gold and Silver,its called insurance for those in the know.

NotApplicable's picture

I would've thought that Germans would be smarter than to keep real money in Merkel's safe deposit boxes. Have they never heard the term "bank holiday?"

milanitaly's picture

I hope Merkel doesn't think to ask Italy something for Euro survive.

We have no more options to reduce our debt. And if interest rates will increase ...... boom!

 

dark pools of soros's picture

deliver more pizzas in those lambos

Sudden Debt's picture

A Lambo can only transport 6 pizza's in the trunk. A Maserati can carry a whopping 8!!

THIS IS THE CHANGE ITALY NEEDS!! PIZZA DELIVERIES WITH MASERATI'S!

Goldenballs's picture

The Sooner the EU dies the better.Contributions to the EU are just Stolen money people can,t afford anymore.

Padrone's picture

The bankers in Europe will not let the Euro project fail,.. just a matter of extending and finding escapes and let the taxpayer pay.

AnAnonymous's picture

This article suffers from a complex of superiority and feign to ignore that what is going in Europe is big, big as big.

 

Sarkozy deceiving Merkel with a threat of leaving the Euro? Come on, you need to believe this drivel to pay attention to it. The Germans did not believe it one second. Mere bucket  passing, the Germans and the French want the same outcome but do not want to be held responsible for it. On this one, the Germans could blame the French for forcing their move. Notice how the Germans scratched back the French.

 

We have there a zone of the world that has been boasting about its history, its culture and so on.

A Eurobond is another step in moving the power of taxation from national states to the European state. As Europeans know it well, this is the recipe to perform the dissolution of a nation, a culture and so on. They know it perfectly as they performed it lavishly through colonization.

What we are living right now is the end of the Germans as a national people, French, Spanish, Italian etc...

This is big and no politician want to be associated with that directly.

But it is in motion. They have already moved toward more political union with this emergency fund facility.

Dont pay attention to people claiming the end of the Euro. They are only (sometimes paid) shills busy with covering the big affair going on in Europe: end of European nations and dissolution of the european cultures.

Better to side track with Euro end than facing and discussing this hand  burning topic.

youngandhealthy's picture

One thing is for sure. I will not invest my money with Lighthouse Investment Management.

What a complete mass of drivel!