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Guest Post: Future Chaos: There Is No "Plan B"
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Future Chaos: There Is No "Plan B"
Note: This article builds on my recent report Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think. It explores the coming energy crunch in more detail by looking at existing government planning and awareness, and the implications of what international recognition of peak oil as early as 2012 might mean.
The hard news is that there is no "Plan B": the future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think. This was the primary conclusion I came to after attending the most recent Association for the Study of Peal Oil & Gas (ASPO) in Washington DC in October, 2010.
The impact of peak oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency deserves our very highest attention - but, it turns out, some important players seem to be paying no attention at all.
ASPO conferences tend to start early, end late, and be packed with more data and information than should be consumed in one sitting. Despite all this, I was riveted to my seat. This year's usual constellation of excellent region-by-region analyses confirmed what past participants already knew: peak conventional oil arrived a few years ago and new fields, enhanced recovery techniques, and unconventional oil plays are barely going to keep up with demand over the next few years.
But there were two reports that really stood out for me. The first was given by Rear Admiral Lawrence Rice who presented the findings of the 2010 Joint Operating Environment (a forward-looking document examining the trends, contexts, and implications for future joint force commanders in the US military) which spends 76 pages summarizing the key trends and threats of the world. "Energy" occupies six of those pages and peak oil dominates the discussion. Among the conclusions (on pg 29) we find this hidden gem which uses numbers and timing that are eerily similar to those I put forth in my April 2009 report Oil - The Coming Supply Crunch:
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.
While there are two "coulds" in that statement, the mere possibility that such an imminent arrival and massive shortfall could be true should give every prudent adult a few second thoughts about what the future may hold. If surplus production capacity disappears in just a couple of years, there's an entire world of planning that should really take place beforehand at the international, national, community and personal levels.
More on the JOE report in a minute. Next I want to turn to a presentation given by Rick Munroe who did his best to discover where in the civilian governmental departments lie the plans for what to do in a liquid fuel-starved future.
To cut to the chase, it turns out that virtually every department he contacted in both the US and Canada denied having any such reports. In one humorous exchange by email Natural Resources Canada stated two things in the same email:
- “At this time the Department has no views on [peak oil].
- "There is no imminent peak oil challenge…."
It will be interesting to see how NRCan words their emails once they do develop a point of view.
The main conclusion from Rick's presentation was that peak pil is being examined closely and taken seriously by military analysts but not civilian authorities. What few plans that do exist on the civilian side are decades old.
The implications of this are that North America "remains highly vulnerable to a liquid fuel emergency disruption" and, since because there are only a few dusty plans lying around, there will be greater chaos than necessary.
Now back to the JOE report.
OPEC: To meet climbing global requirements, OPEC will have to increase its output from 30 MBD to at least 50 MBD. Significantly, no OPEC nation, except perhaps Saudi Arabia, is investing sufficient sums in new technologies and recovery methods to achieve such growth. Some, like Venezuela and Russia, are actually exhausting their fields to cash in on the bonanza created by rapidly rising oil prices. (pg 26)
A severe energy crunch is inevitable without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds. (pg 28)
Well, the amounts needed from OPEC are quite, shall we say, 'ambitious' as they amount to an additional two Saudia Arabias coming on line in order to make up the shortfall. A massive crunch is not otherwise avoidable. Let's be honest, there are no more Saudia Arabias to be found. Perhaps we could cobble one together out of thousands of smaller, less productive fields, but the likelihood of a few massive fields 1,100 feet under the ground waiting to be found is extremely remote. People in the business of actually producing oil know that producing from smaller wells takes more time, equipment and manpower.
Meanwhile, I also happen to agree with their assessment that the details of the effects are difficult to predict but that the general theme will be one of reduced growth, and that's under the best of circumstances. More likely we'll have to figure out how to operate on zero or even negative growth.
So I came away from the ASPO conference pondering two completely polar trends that combined to create a lasting discomfort. On the one hand we have more and more private and military organizations coming to the conclusion that peak oil is imminent and will change everything, possibly disruptively. On the other hand there appear to be no plans within the civilian government to deal with a liquid fuels emergency.
While we can expect that such plans will be tossed together when necessary, I would hope that Katrina taught us a few lessons about developing plans on the fly after the disaster has already arrived. Sure, things got done, but they were certainly suboptimal and led to more confusion and more chaos than if they'd been carefully developed, practiced, and debugged.
The way that I understand the lack of planning on the part of the civilian side is that peak oil does not present any easy political wins, if any at all. Given the 2-year planning cycle in DC, it's never a good time to bring up such an unpleasant subject. Politics trumps necessity.
What can be rather easily predicted here is that when the next fuel crisis arrives there will be more chaos than necessary. Some areas will get completely stiffed on their fuel allotments while other areas will be reasonably well supplied. The reason that this can be easily predicted is because it more or less already happened in Europe during a protest by French fishermen inspired by high fuel prices. They blockaded ports in late May of 2008 and by early June the action had spread across Europe. Shelves were quickly stripped bare of essential goods, tensions mounted, and petrol stations ran dry in a hurry.
And these were just the effects of a port blockade and tanker truck strike. What would happen with a real and persistent shortage of fuel? Well, if it were perceived to be due to a structural and permanent inability of the global oil market to meet demand, prices would rise stratospherically until demand was cut off. The only problem is, letting prices determine which industries idle back may not be the best plan.
Consider the case of agriculture. If full 'pass through pricing' is the mechanism of rationing, which it currently is, then less food will be grown. With world grain stocks at historic lows this is one area where we might not want to let Mr. Market dictate the activities of farmers based on fuel price. To do otherwise would require a plan of some sort and none appear to be in effect.
That's the source of my discomfort. It's not necessarily that large organizations are beginning to share my sense of timing and impact of peak oil, although that will hasten the tipping point of awareness - it's that somehow I always thought that because Admiral Hyman Rickover knew well that this day would come (in the 1950's!) that 60 years would have been sufficient lead-time to assemble some credible plans.
No plans = unnecessary chaos.
The lack of planning also betrays a very common attitude which might be summarized as “we’ll deal with that when we get there.” I detect this attitude in a wide range of individuals and market participants so it’s not at all uncommon. However, I think it’s a mistake to hold this view. When (not if, but when) full awareness of peak oil arrives on the international stock, bond and commodity markets we’ll discover just how narrow the doorways really are. Only a few will manage to preserve their wealth by squeezing through the doorway early, most will not make it through. As mentioned frequently on this site, our What Should I Do? guide for developing personal resiliency against a post-peak future offers a valuable resource for those just getting started in their preparations.
This thinking is explored in greater depth in Part 2 of this report (enrollment required) in which I discuss strategies to fill the official vacuum by developing our own plans for what we should do in response.
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Plan B does exist and is a top secret project run by NASA the end result is a manned landing on Mars.
Well that solves the problem!... or at least redefines "diversifying risk".
You mean Operation Goldmember?
lol
edumacations
http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/film.html
Will it be Schwarzenegger?
Just google HAARP. There is a plan B, C, D, E, F against the global currency mess.
You just need to be willing to open your eyes.
Thank god for haarp, keeps those pesky hurricanes in the atlantic and away from the coast....yep.
Low income housing...
http://news.pacificnews.org/news/view_article.html?article_id=eed74d9d44c30493706fe03f4c9b3a77
LOL. I get a kick at the FEMA camp/Bush/Marital law meme of these stories. Now, don't get me wrong. I'm convinced the gov is preparing a police state in the USA. However, Bush has been gone for almost two years. The articles about Bush/FEMA Camps/Martial law haven't been updated to include the current regime's progress in the police state creation. My three favorites are the airport x-rays, x-ray vans, and Czar John Holdren's plan in incorporate UAVs into the national airspace. Why he wants drones patrolling the skies over America, I can only imagine, but judging by usage in the ME, and HSA's focus on 'right-wing extremists and domestic terrorists, I'd say its not to help out the 'little guy'.
+ 1776
There are lots of tiny little plan B's, they all add up and we live happily ever after.
Still waiting for peak stupidity...
Or the parabolic rally.
LOL
Sept 1st to today isnt enough of a lunatic parabolic rally for ya?
Yep. I like potentially promising small caps, and trade in that arena frequently. The number of near vertical lift-offs of late is amazing. In the past, that has usually been a pretty good warning sign. However, if BB keeps ramping liquidity, hard to say how long it could go on. Then of course, there is always the laggard or two that keeps tap dancing right above the stop level.
I'll introduce you to my mother-in-law at your request.
algae bitchez!
There's no doubt that algae-based fuel is tantalizing -- unlike crops, trees, the sun and wind, algae starts out already half-comprised of hydrocarbons useable for bio-diesel, as Debora MacKenzie writes at New Scientist. That's why Silicon Valley, the Pentagon and serious oil companies are attempting to crack the code and scale up algae into a global transportation fuel. And if you ask the chin- and chest-out Venter, his own efforts are headed for tickertape-parade-type success: "Designing and building synthetic cells will be the basis of a new industrial revolution," he told Pollack. "The goal is to replace the entire petrochemical industry."
<this article is pretty evenhanded in adressing algae, there is promise and limitations, but it is undoubtedly a plan B>
http://oilandglory.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/09/07/craig_venters_one_man_algae_fuels_bubble_0
Seaweed, bitchez. It's abundant, naturally occuring, and full of vitamins and nutrients. Except for the ones floating in and around the GOM, of course.
But the seaweed in the GOM is full of oil already!
Exactly. There are alternatives. We just have to be creative enough to discover or utilize the solutions to their full potential. I think he was right about the wake up call. Although, maybe if farmers were charging more for their crops based on higher fuel prices, it would create an incentive for us to explore other ways of fueling agriculture.
meanwhile stock-up on bicycles ...
Yeah, algae sounds great, but it ain't gonna happen on this planet in a useful timeframe. Someone who knows (Robert Rapier) writes about it here:
http://tinyurl.com/373k43y
and elsewhere on his blog
Alternatives are pie-in-the-sky pipe dreams at this point. The EIA suggest we'll need 739 quadrillion BTUs/year by 2035. That's a hell of a lot of "alternatives." So much for Plan B.
Needless to say, I'm not holding my breath on that one.
From my blog a few days back:
"Not only are these critical raw material getting scarce, it’s also takes more and more energy to get them.
Nature, the ultimate lender of last resort has a balance sheet problem: depletion.
Eventually we will have a zero sum game; it will cost more to get the stuff out of the ground than it’s worth.
The powers-that-be are in denial; on a finite planet, exponential growth is an oxymoron.
Contrary to what they preach in Washington and Wall Street, our current economic system destroys the basic resources it depends on to survive. We’re committing environmental, and by extension, economic suicide."
http://therookiecynic.wordpress.com/2010/10/12/your-lethal-education-par...
Absolutely... We have created the perfect economic system (profit/competition) for the unsustainable extraction and conversion of low entropy natural resources into high entropy waste...
The universal laws of thermodynamics can not be trumped... The only solution is the global abandonment of the profit system of energy (money) allocation and thus, an end to infinite growth (consumption/waste)... I do not underestimate the scale of such a systemic change (ideologically), but it is one that we are now being forced to make... Exponential or not, any growth via consumption of finite resources is unsustainable, meaning, profit 2.0 is collective suicide... The jig is up, time to pay the bill...
But I'm absolutely certain that if global civilization does survive and prosper into the next century and beyond, this moment in time, when we made the brave and wise collective decision to accept global resource equality, will be celebrated as the birth of civilization type one...
California's Plan B = Issue Marijuana Pot Bonds
http://www.businessinsider.com/california-may-back-state-debt-with-marijuana-taxes-if-its-legalized-2010-10
Just what Kalifornia needs, more potheads...
repealing the prohibition? ...what a rapid change in 'ethics'. ha, ha.
The future is a lot more chaotic than the Zerohedge permabull boner chart posters think. I myself know what chaos is coming, loaded up with guns beans and bullets for months now.
Plus, you may be able to fart your way to hydro-carbon independence...
Hey it worked for Bartertown! Not shit, FUEL! Who run Bartertown? MasterBlaster! *toot*
KAOS agents to Benny:
K: 200 billion dollars by 3pm.
Benny: 200 billion dollars by 3pm?
K: You seem a bit slow, is there someone else I can talk to?
Peak oil is already hitting us. It won't land like a tonne of bricks IMO, it will look like a tonne of bricks in retrospect, but the pain it creates will be attributed to other economic issues. If there is more gas and coal for the medium term, it just makes driving more expensive, which will be good. Not sure how the effect on prices will be felt in a backdrop of rapid currency devaluation...
think the Saudi's are out? Dubai collapsed less than one year ago. Seem longer than that, doesn't it?
The 2nd and 3rd majors Cantrell and Burgan (sp?) are both past peak. They must pretend Ghewar is not peak to reduce panic - of course even past peak it continues to produce. After that our good friends in Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Russia have good sized conventional reserves. I think the fact that prices have been so stable is evidence of how weak the U.S. economy is.
Is peak oil really a threat as the global depression takes it grip and demand drops 20-30% from current levels?
you folks can talk about peak oil....i'll talk about peak demand (already hit).
I agree.
We're always at oil peak.
Don't forget that demand in Asia is increasing...
Looking forward to the continuation of your series. During the past rash of hurricanes impacting the east coast of Florida, it was interesting to know that employees / contractors of fuel oil importers of port servicable areas were not able to obtain available gasoline or diesel to fuel their trucks. So... I am inclined to believe there are contingency plans in place, but perhaps not available to the average joe.
Dig deep into the Homeland Security Plans and you will find what you seek.
Everyones Plan B is different, based on their personal situation. I think food, shelter and security are the main ingredients! Rest can be accomplished as we go!
"The hard news is that there is no "Plan B": the future is likely to be more chaotic than you probably think."
I always word it like this... there is no backup financial system. There is no backup generator to be turned on.
Mako
Of course there is a plan B, and C and Z.
Every possible action effecting the US/World/TPTB has already been modeled.
Every conceivable scenario has been planned for with acceptable amount of loss due to death and destruction.
What the fuck do "Think Tanks" due?
Plan B is to own a donkey and expect to never travel beyond 20 miles from home unless you have some wealth. Maybe the Amish were right afterall?
I'm pretty sure I won't like donkey meat.
peak stupidity = ethanol
irreplaceable oil, water, and farmland used to create subsidies for agribusiness and kickbacks for a few senators.
+1
Although I believe biofuels do have a select role in our future energy mix, its very limited by scale... No way on gods green earth ;-) can we produce the BOE (barrels of oil equivalent) energy from biomass to save this economic model/lifestyle... And really, who wants to??? From what I can gather, the more "wealth" we accumulate, the higher the SSRI dose one needs to believe the lie... We need to re-examine what makes for a happy and productive life and in a big way...
I have posted this link before but I feel its quite an eye opener and a glimpse into our future... Note who funded one of the studies ;-)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc
WTH is going on? Why is the market not green green green!!! Are (BEN) they losing control is the last acts of desparation?
Not to worry. Just the usual "get the token selling out of the way" in the first 10 minutes and then we rocket higher on abysmal economic news and a crashing dollar.
The impact of peak oil on markets, lifestyles, and even national solvency ... some important players seem to be paying no attention
I don't understand why some people continue to promote the concept that only a few, the prescient and astute, have a correct handle on future economic drivers. This attitude is arrogance and hubris defined, rolled into one annoying manifestation of pride going before the fall.
Memo to CM: the power-elite get it. Not only do they get it, they are way, way ahead of the rest of us in terms of advance preparation. This act being foisted on the gullible about seemingly not paying attention is merely a rear-guard action designed to prevent the competition - um, you - from cluing in and confusing their efforts.
Of course they do know what's going on. That's reason #6 they're trying (and succeeding) in reverting us back to feudalism - how the hell will they be able to afford the fuel for their Ferraris and tanks if the average Joe, Kumar and Boon all use it.
Agreed... Anyone who believes that "real" powers that be are not absolutely aware and have been planning for this very time for at least three decades is only fooling him/herself... The factual and coincidental evidence is irrefutable, at least to those who believe in causality and not random information creation from the vacuum of the aether...
But having said that, I also believe CM is well aware of this but needs to seperate himself from a "conspiracy theorist" attack from the moral majority by adhering to more orthodox methods of forming a hypothesis ;-)...
Remind me again why we are tilting at windmills and solar panels and not exploiting the crap out of this country's massive and recently accessible shale (and other) natural gas resources?
Power plants and many types of diesel type machinery run just fine on the stuff.
There will be plenty of energy not being used in the future.
Just like back in the 30s they started dumping crops out at sea for the lack of demand, yet people were starving onshore.
Not only will they not be putting new power plants online they will taking existing ones offline.
Perhaps because they're not sustainable resources? The ole phrase "kicking the can down the road" apply here?
The atom is quite sustainable.
If we had not gotten side tracked by chicken littles running through the crowd with their hair on fire screaming the sky is falling most of our electric power generation would be nuclear by now. But no...we were treated to endless magazine articles and movies on Three Mile Island.
The public was effectively brainwashed into paying more for less.
And here we are...well done greenies.
So the Plan A now...is US tax payer subsidized solar power assembled with Mexican labor & bird killing wind farms where the cost of energy does not go down but up for said taxpayer...excellent.
What do they do for an encore...mail you a free tire gauge...oh, wait, I feel a campaign slogan coming on ;-)
Agree that nuclear will come back big time, but don't cite the oil lobby BS about wind turbines being "bird killing", it's a red herring (and I work in the fossil fuel industry).
I admit I have no idea of the extent of the problem and it must be low because windmill use is small...but to my knowledge the Peregrine Fund is not part of big oil (looks like Turner's kid is a Director) but there will necessarily have to be an "acceptable level" of death to birds for this technology...there is no other way around large blades slicing through the air.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2005-01-04-windmills-usat_x.htm
My point of course, was the state sanctioned fascism of subsidizing companies to make them viable on my dime, along with the unintended consequences of every action taken (past & present) pursuing a coherent energy policy.
Windows kill more birds but as you say, there are more of them. Point taken though.
As for fascism, it's usually state sanctioned, no?
"As for fascism, it's usually state sanctioned, no?"
LOL...yes, I guess I was over emphasizing.
Geothermal.... and I'll not add the requisite "bitchez" expletive.
I don't have a problem with any & all sources of energy. I just want them viable on their own.
Hell I'm toying with the idea of solar at my house for purely selfish/fiscal reasons...the fact I live in Fla. where hurricanes come through and my power bill...LOL.
I just don't believe in government creating false markets...we see how that's working out everyday.
Really? Ever been to a uranium mine? Nuclear fission is not the holy grail we are led to believe it to be... As for fusion, I'm not willing to trust my future on a "maybe someday" possibility, how about you? And even so, fusion still requires fuel?
Even the sun is going to burn out one day (perpetual motion is a myth, regardless of where matter exists in the universe) and it does not require the fossil fuel energy subsidy to provide its reactor with fuel (Let alone build the reactor infrastructure)... But yeah, nuclear energy is definately a temporary bridge for some select economies... Namely those, which have infrastructure in place or the presen economic means to do so,ie. not the USA... You guys already have huge issues with painted rust infrastructure...
You should watch CM's crash course series (especially on energy)... You will not be dissapointed ;-)
There was no plan A. That's why I find what going on as "the ultimate boner." It's funny, but it's not. Like the infantry guy laughing while he pulls the trigger. It's not funny, actually or in actuality (obviously.) When dealing with the government "boners like this can last a while."
Yes it is the best plan. Less food might be produced but you assume that is bad. It's not if the mix changes, less meat, more grain etc.
"Peak oil" is a myth. Easily proved to be false, if you do the research. Example: find out how many wells have been drilled in Texas, and how many drilled in Iraq (where we know they have almost as much oil as Saudia Arabia and the lifting costs are less).
What is not, is "Peak Refinery Capacity" - even if we could pump 50% more per day out of the ground, it still has to be refined. From what I can see, that is currently the bottleneck - and it can take years to bring a refinery online.
Ummm, here's a slightly more detailed analysis . . .
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5969
There is a lot wrong and even stupid in that analysis, but I am not going to bother refuting it - it should be obvious if you ask yourself, "what are the charts posted NOT saying"?
I gave you a simple example, one you could research on google in less than five minutes.
Here, let me do the work for you:
Texas - approximately 100,000 oil wells in operation.
Iraq - approximately 3,000 oil wells in operation. Very underdeveloped, due to the previous embargo most of their tech is 30 years old (1979 era).
Oil, natural gas, and newer sources like gas hydrates are not the problem - especially any time oil stays above $55 per gallon for any length of time. The issue is refinery capacity - refineries cost a lot to build, take a while to build, and operate on slim margins, so the demand absolutely has to be there for years in order to make it worthwhile to build it.
The easier way to go, is to do what refineries are doing - tighten up the market by a bit and get better margins on what they do refine.
One figure is all you need to see it's not a myth (speaking for conventional crude):
www.durangobill.com/RolloverPics/RolloverGap.jpg (this is just one place that has the figure posted, not advocating this site).
They have been exploring like mad this past decade, especially when prices went to the moon. There are no more massive reservoirs "hiding" out there kids, sorry for the bad news. If there were, why would they not disclose them? A conspiracy to push green energy? Come on. The more recent, so-called, big conventional finds are puny compared to the low hanging fruit from the middle east. It's heavy oil, coal and nukes from here on in (and a bit of a gas glut we're currently enjoying in North America right now which we get at the expense of fresh water).
The forecast from Leonard Cohen . . .
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D97OxHZzBeQ
We haven't thought about conservation yet. Biggest restaurant in town just replaced a flat, black, tar paper roof, with a new flat, black tar paper roof. What they did not do is use a white sealant, or at least a couple of gallons of white paint, while they had the men and the ladders up there. Could easily have cut their air conditioning bill for the next 20 years.
OK they are rednecks, but they are not unusual. When power gets expensive, even the sheeple will make adjustments.
don't got a be a redneck to be stupid kaiser. just watched a nice new 20,000 s.f. black tar roof get laid up north this summer. of course, the landlord still worships the altar of extend & pretend. la la la la la
LOL, good one! I remember those idiots talking about all white cars, roofs, and pavement. No wonder this country is so screwed its run by retards who make themselves feel better by calling everyone 'rednecks'.
+1
Peak Oil will be looked back in 50 years as another scam perpetrated on the world population. Vast regions of the planet have not even been touched!
But vast areas of the planet have been touched already and the result is a lot of yuck. You wanting more of that? Wonderful.
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_land_on_earth_is_dominated_...
29% of Earth is land mass. Of that 29% humans occupy less than 1% of that area. Of the remaining 28% about 40% is pure wilderness. 14% is true desert and 15% has desert like characteristics. 9% is Antarctica. Most of the remaining 22% are agricultural areas. There may be other areas with a human footprint of some kind but it is insignificant in any relation to global warming.
MountainMan
Peak oil is another scam to manipulate the genpop.
Imagine a future where everyone has x amount of Carbon credits to purchase food, transportation and utilities. Only rich and corporations may purchase more credits. Poor people can't.
Every item, from Tomatoes to bus rides, is designated by the amount of Carbon credits it takes to produce.
Todays society is designed to be more efficient because people find it hard to move from one side of the nation to the other. It makes for Demographic stability. ( One of the issues with prisons is they force family to relocate closer to the prisons, thus breaking up various voting blocks).
In a Carbon Credit based society it becoms even harder for single entities to relocate.
It must be nice arriving at conclusions without being encumbered by any knowledge of Geology or Thermodynamics.
Riddle me this;
Name the top 3 producing fields in the world and their current flow rate?
Would For-Profit oil companies be drilling thru 5000+ feet of water and another 2000 feet of rock at extreme cost if there were other easier "Untouched" regions to plunder?
Does "easier" include overthrowing or invading other countries to get access to untouched regions?
electric cars will take care of peak oil little by little. This is nothing but some doom and gloom
wafflehead
Jevons Paradox creates more problems.
Electricity isn't harvested unless you can pull off the kite and lightning strike. Electricity has to be made by oil, nukes or renewables. So, converting to electric cars would require building about 50 nuke plants across America. They cost billions, take 10 years to build and the "greens" will never allow it. Recall a nuke was shutdown in Vermont earlier this year for fear of it possibly going Chernobyl. Based on the infrastructure repair bill that came out recently, they are probably correct.
Unfortunately, nothing packs a punch like a drop of oil. Besides being dirty it really has been the magic that has got us to this point in the world.
Any unbeliever in peak oil should start to look at all the things that require oil. The shirt you are wearing, the plastic in your iPhone, the steak you ate last night, etc. People think Peak oil and say, "eh, I will scale down from a Hummer 2 to a Hummer 3, no biggie".
It is more like the population will 'scale down' a few billion people and we can all go back to partying like its 1899. :)
Besides the nuke subs and ships the military requires a lot of oil. Those strategic reserves will never be allowed to drop. In fact the strategic reserve assumes that oil could be delayed but will always be on the way to top things up. If something did change I would expect the US to try to have 5 times the current reserve lest their military be crippled.
As others have said, nobody can really believe BP wanted to drill miles down. Or that companies are going to attempt to drill up in the Arctic. Even if you are suspicious of peak oil, understand that these giants aren't stupid. A barrel of oil is still the same if it comes from under the surface in Saudi or 2 miles below the ice in the Arctic. They really don't want to go up there but they have to.
Even at Peak oil there will be lots of oil left just nothing we can get at without oil being $1000/barrel. Energy required for energy produced.
"They" don't need a Plan B. "They" know we ain't gettin' to 2012, much less 2015. Hope ya got a few tubes of SPF 4000.
Velvet weekend. It will allow an orderly collapse of the dollar. Panic is so chaotic.
No plan B = One Trick Pony. The Fed only knows to print. Only ever a question of how much and when.
America has undergone "PLanned Obsolescence" at the hands of an elite that don't care.
Math says exponential growth is not natural.
Unlimited oil not natural and debt based money with interest is not natural.
Both will implode.
Hmm?
Exponential growth happens in nature all the time, until limiting factors come into play.
Must remember to set aside some cash for Austrlaian energy stocks, for after the next market crash.
Peak this, Peak that.
This is a REAL problem.
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/10/11/think_again_global_agin...
Think Again: Global Aging A gray tsunami is sweeping the planet -- and not just in the places you expect. How did the world get so old, so fast?The dropping fertility rates around the world may not be so unexplained. Bill Gates, the UN, and assorted friends, have this little vaccination program, as well as a few other programs, who's objective is to reduce the global human population. If you really want to be horrified, start looking into what the crowd of enviro-MENTALS (and I do emphasize mental) have planned for humanity. (Big Green=Population Control) Give a bit of thought to the 'soft-kill' methods of population reduction, and then look around. I did. I then got a horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach. I feel sorry for my 22 yo daughter and those of her generation and after.
some pigs are more equal than others, for the sake of 'the planet', of course.
This was expected since last 50 years.
If there is no plan B then we have to face the reality ...
One day scientists will find other energy sources to replace oil. Then we will have a better world.
Then there will be no Saudis, Iranians as nations sitting on oil and doing nothing, just spreading their way of Sharia Islam.
One this good out of this is There will be less War in the world.
Most military equipment works with gas( ships,planes,tanks,trucks etc..), they will all be obsolete when we use another energy sources.
STUXNET!
One of the smartest people I know once said "information is the highest form of energy." STUXNET would be an example of this.
Hey, I've got a complete Oxford English Dictionary set. How do I get 'em shredded and stuffed into my gas tank? ;-)
peak oil is over-hyped. no one here can predict the future course of technology, so the speculation over peak oil is mostly hysteria.
this peak oil reminds me of paul elrich
Could it actually be Man-Made Peak Oil?
Never let a crisis go to waste, even if you have to create it yourself.
I prefer this plan B http://www.planb-club.com/
Just this morning, I was thinking that Plan B may already be underway. I don't believe it will work, but the following actions may be intented to mitigate the effects of peak oil.
Mandate ethanol in gasoline to mechanically destroy older incompatible ICE's, then people will have to buy whatever rollerskate cars that are mandated that much sooner.
Crush the economy to conserve resources and lower expectations.
Get more people dependent on the government for sustenance to make them more compliant.
Erect a smart grid under he control of central planning to shut users down as needed.
Outlaw incandescent lights and require CFL to force everyone to live in a cold dreary light that sucks the life out them leading to depression and apathy in order to have as many people as possible sitting around in the cold dark and not doing much.
perhaps you can think of others....
Soft Kill Population Reduction via ObamaCare and health care rationing.
So much cleaner than those nasty death camps. No muss-no fuss! Yeah, about 30 million 'Capitalists' should do it....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HWMIwziGrAQ
But,I thought "they" had masonic treasure chests full of CFR Philosopher-Kings? Like the ones out at the Bohemian Grove? No? <sarc off> Bilderberg, my ass.
Seriously, do you think the Pentagon top brass would agree there is no plan B?
Out of chaos comes order.
- Illuminati
( or we could populate another planet as suggested by WWF.. http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/10/wwf-second-earth-needed/1 )
Time to invest in horses, horse carriages & horse plows...
Ya' better make sure you can get your hands on an ongoing supply of non-engineered seeds first.
Amish, bitches. (couldn't resist).
Let's take this all one at a time:
1) Oil isn't everywhere. Japan has not a drop, which is why they are willing to go to extremes about China grabbing the Senkaku Islands south of Okinawa. The Phillipines have no oil. Zero oil production there. Zero from Portugal. Zero from Spain. Oil isn't everywhere. It IS Finite, and there's nothing anyone can do about that.
2) The places where it was, are becoming relentlessly past tense. As in Oklahoma. As in Texas. Oklahoma oil production hit 750,000 barrels per day in 1928. From there, relentlessly down and today it is 150,000 bpd, with 2010 technology. You will see in all articles a cry for "more investment and development" as The Answer, but all that can do is make the downslope more gradual. You cannot create oil underground with money.
3) Oil isn't energy. Expecting 30 horsepower engines powered by batteries to plow the fields that require 450 horsepower tractors is just silly. No, don't wave your hand and say the electric tractor will just take longer. Planting and harvesting seasons are only so long. There are 10,000 acre farms now. They have to be plowed. Electric won't do it. Ever. Oil isn't energy. There is no energy crisis. There is an oil crisis, and there is nothing anyone can do about it.
4) You can make oil last a very long time -- by not producing and using it. This is the foundation of quotes you hear about Bakken of how it will last 200 years. Of course it will, if you never extract more than 400K barrels/day, and odds are it, like all shale, will never produce any faster than that.
5) Expect international sharing? The US has 300 million people out of the planet's 7 billion. That's 4%. We use 25% of the oil. When it comes time to share, do you think America is going to endure a reduction of oil use (and 1:1 mapping of GDP) by a factor of 5? GDP tracks oil consumption precisely. Can any administration tolerate a 5:1 reduction of oil use/GDP growth? No. Of course not. The US would never agree. War is then inevitable.
re your point #1-- http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSP49983920090225 - Philippines makes first export of Galoc Oil (name of the oil field) - how many ZH posters are incapable of using Google or Bing, I wonder ... this was the second search result...
No oil could be the end of globalization.
Stay local and thrive...food, work, social network etcetra.
That sounds fine, except that if there is no oil, there's likely to be no work or food either. Your social network is going to be stressed too. The "adjustment phase" is going to be a bitch... Long Glock, canned food and water filters.
Anyone notice how when the dollar goes down, market goes up?
peak experience
Well I just got through walking through my vegetable fields this morning. I had enough food on the ground just to feed a small town, never mind the ongoing yields. If there is not enough gas to get to market - I don't care. I'm organic good and so are my neighbors.
Sweet potatos bitchez!
bankon, mad props to you for such a bountiful harvest.
how big are your fields?
how long did it take you work the soil up to generate such yields?
do you till or no-till?
how many hours you spend a week farming?
curious to learn more if you care to share...thx
40 acres and a mule. 150 feet of green house. I have another 160 fallow.
It takes a good 3 years to get all the pesticides and yuck out of the soil. Lucky that the place used to be a kiwi orchard. Well water - never from the canal, drip irrigation. Ultra wide beds - you can weed the place with a tractor, so labor costs are way down, but yields are nearly the same for standard cultivation. zero tillage no furrows. Practice organic, but not going to pay all the fees for the USDA certification - thats a racket and the big organic producers still use bad stuff. What a scam. The difference is the taste. It either tastes like the county fair July 4, 1975 or it doesn't. Plant a ton of different things and just rotate it all to get the soil balanced out. I like to spend about 20 hrs a week outside, but I depend on specialists when needed. Always something to do. Birds keep pecking at the irrigation lines. Harvest times takes a crew a few days full time to get everything to market. The great thing though is trading with other farmers. Trade basil for anything. The margins are better than picking stocks and never go hungry. Its a little too scientific, but it keeps the fuel and labor costs down.
What to do when Prop 19 passes?
thanks for sharing. wow, that's a lotta land man. bet you got a hell of a compost pile (numerous ones i'm sure).
crop rotation is key for sure. grew some holy basil this year on my 1/4 acre...amazing herb.
"What to do when Prop 19 passes?"
carve out a 5x5 plot and start experimenting?
What to do when Prop 19 passes?
If you build it, they will come!
Some people won't be happy until the last forest is clear cut, the last mountain is leveled, and the last ocean is an acidic, oily soup -- all to chase some mirage of progress.
Peak oil is very real, and only really requires that you concede to the fact that the Earth is finite to understand. Get that? The Earth is finite. It only has so much to give, and that includes oil. We have used up over half of what it had to offer, and all that is left is in smaller fields, deeper underground, and often far out to sea.
There can never be economic recovery without spurring the price of oil upwards, which will result in kicking the economy in the teeth, dragging it back into recession or depression. This will be the whimper of our demise.
Either accept it, and prepare yourself, or keep believing in the fairly tales about alternative sources that don't come close to providing the EROI that oil does, and that cannot be made into the over 500,000 products oil is used as a base for. If you only think about liquid fuel for cars, then you're missing the majority of the picture.
I can't imagine why someone junked your comment. There may be disagreement with it in one or more respects but it certainly doesn't deserve to be junked. As you say, the cure for problem can be high prices. So, what's not to like?
There are many alternatives and can be many plan Bs. The question is not the availability of the technoligy. It is all available. The question is how a country such as the US transitions 300 million people from the current plan to plan B.
My guess is that one plan B involves the missing $2.3 trillion of missing Pentagon funds that not surprisingly stopped being investigated on 9/11 when the accountants were blown up in the 9/11 Sunstein conspiracy attack on the Pentagon.
So, what exactly was built underneath Stapleton airport and other Rocky Mountain bases?
always wondered why Don Donny chose 9/10 to hold a news conference on that. must have been just another co-inki-dink.
Ahem.
Regarding this sentence:
I don't know which Europe the author is referring to, but it certainly is not the Europe I have been living in for 40+ years. While they certainly were tensions in France around that time, and some regions of France (NOT the whole of Europe, juste SOME parts of France) did have some petrol shortages, that was far from the chaos and shortages the author is implying.
While Peak Oil is certainly a challenge, and a very important one for the coming years, I strongly suspect it will much less of a problem in Europe, where people commute less and use public transportations a lot more than in the USA or Canada, for instance.
I, for one, is looking forward to a future with a lot less gas guzzlers on the road...
Make of that what you will.
Plan B. It walks on 4 legs,it chews grass, and is served in a bun at McDonalds in France.
You guys are not embracing the ramifications and extrapolations.
GDP requires oil consumption. Repeat that. GDP requires oil consumption.
In a world of decreasing oil production, SO DOES GDP. For everyone. It's all downhill.
It is that . . . that specific reality . . . which is crushing. The future is not bright and never will be again. You guys who think you will organically farm and live locally and swagger about at how YOUR children will be okay are delusional. Hungry fathers and mothers will rationalize ANYTHING. 10,000 of them streaming out of just a smallish city will overrun you and your Glock, take your food, and then look for more. Somewhere. They will do so with no problems sleeping afterwards, because they have to feed their children.
Btw, before you worry about organic farming, make sure you live somewhere that has a water supply that does not arrive in pressurized pipes, because the guys who make those work are going to starve, and then the pipes won't work.
7 billion people on the planet. It will never work without easy oil, and that's gone forever.
well water, but i hear ya. solar is just not economical without government subsidies. wind does some, but lets face it the joules/kg is the magic formula on fuel. 7.62x51 doesn't hurt either (except on the receiving end.) then again, building a still or going to wood-gas gets you some range in the road warrior world. I don't think the sky will fall that far though. The US war games taking out the the Saudi family and command structure in a sunny afternoon. Thats a lot of oil without the Arab margins. Would not want to live in a big city though.
Sorry, the "take the oil" scenario can absolutely not fly.
Oil production and transport infrastructure is hugely vulnerable. It is not stealable. Any conflict at the production or transport terminal will destroy the pipelines and pumps.
There's no way for this to work. Also, China ships theirs. Most of our import comes in via pipeline from Canada, and pipelines can be sabotaged, but pipelines can also be fixed. Sunk tankers are gone forever.
Same thing I surmised. I think the House of Saud has made a pact with the banksters of this world which will end with making theirs a golden kingdom for a thousand years.
Better get to the gun range this afternoon for some practice rounds!
Tru Dat, Keep it Real!
So Iran really does want nuclear power for peaceful reasons? Maybe we will wake up and build more nuke plants pronto.
Will this help or hurt railroad stocks?
Go long Thorium.
Railroads (especially high-speed, electrically powered railroads) are, IMHO, the transportation of the future. Except in the USA, where they are undrefunded and under-appreciated.
If America ever rids itself of the parasitic entity currently running it, you will see magnificent bullet trains made in America, better than most built now overseas. In other words, if we could get rid of these bankster scumbags, look out China!
In the future, could contributors to ZH posting articles on "Peak Oil" please use the expression "Peak Oil" in their "Peak Oil" article?
At the current time, I'm only interested in "Peak Demand" articles, and found your lack of any reference to oil in your headline somewhat careless.
Thank you.
WAH
FEMA Director Battle Book
Really this is a great post from an expert and thank you very much for sharing this valuable information with us.
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