Guest Post: The Gathering Storm

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Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:07 | 1049811 Sudden Debt
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If a butterly in Tunisia can do that....


I can only warn you guys....





Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:54 | 1049866 Miss Expectations
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Sorry for high jacking the thread, but here's a statement from Martin Armstrong:

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:23 | 1050057 samsara
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Thank you

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:14 | 1050196 Crumbles
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+10 and stars ***

Now that he's (partially) sprung, hope he keeps up his communication with the world.

Thanks for posting !

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:28 | 1050071 InconvenientCou...
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not a butterfly, but a match and gasoline. A match and methane works too.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:01 | 1050442 Hacksaw
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Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:11 | 1049816 oh_bama
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Well even some of the things in this post are true, I am sure you cannot fight the fed and ECB and Bank of England and Band of Japan combined. So you are still a loser even if you are right.

Just like some super smart guys saying "buy Japan equity" about two weeks ago... hehe...

Now guys, smart guys here on 0hedge, what is next? BTF what? (I have already got decent amount of fish.. hehe)

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:18 | 1049831 Escapeclaws
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OMG, I just responded to this further down the list which is moving along like a roll of toilet paper for someone with diarrhea:

I find this idea of the so-called "butterfly effect" ludricous as it is commonly applied.  It comes from sensitivity to initial conditions in dynamical systems theory. Some popularizer knew that the Lorenz equations, which model the weather, or more precisely, convection currents, have this property.  However, air is an absorbing medium with the result that any movement of air from a butterfly flapping its wings is quickly damped. The Lorenz equations do not have a parameter for this and do have the property of sensitivity to initial conditions, which means that a tiny perturbation of a given initial condition may give rise to a completely different solution. Strogatz in his book on differential equations has some nice color pictures of this happening on the famous Lorenz owl mask strange attractor. The Lorenz equations are strictly deterministic and do not allow for absorption, damping, or random movement of air molecules in Brownian motion. The logical fallacy of the butterfly effect is to assume that the model is the phenomenon--ie, putting Descartes before the horse.

NB, this was in response to the post above--I guess that roll of toilet paper is moving pretty fast!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:26 | 1049863 Snidley Whipsnae
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Perhaps the 'butterfly effect' falls into the catagory of parable...

'parable: An extended metaphor narrated as an anecdote illustrating and teaching a moral lesson.'

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:28 | 1049871 Escapeclaws
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Yes, it could be com-parable to that.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:37 | 1049903 Oh regional Indian
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Too literal escape. You are applying science and literal mathematics to a phenomenan hardly understood by standard anything (science I mean). 

EWhen action at a distance has been explained, properly as has Heisenberg's postulate of uncertainity been fully understood, not by false constant filled equations by the way, then we can talk of butterfly's and flapping wings and hurricanes.

Science, as we know it, has run it's course and given us little except better ways to kill ourselves. Painfully at that.


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:05 | 1050174 gwar5
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That sounds a little fatalistic, but then, I knew you'd say that....

Check out String theory and the Holographic Principle. Says the universe is made of information and all the mass and energy are merely incidental because they're an expression of information too. Not to worry, all that information is being recorded on the Planck scale on a cosmic compressed disc for recall and never lost. Dinosaurs and WMDs are tinker toys.

Long live the Holodeck.





Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:26 | 1050247 Crumbles
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'The time has come,' the Walrus said,
'To talk of many things:
Of shoes -- and ships -- and sealing wax --
Of cabbages -- and kings --
And why the sea is boiling hot --
And whether pigs have wings.' wings that flap in N. Africa

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:59 | 1050425 Hook Line and S...
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That, ORI, is what science has given every culture on this planet for the past hundreds of thousands of years. Fallen angels we are.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 12:53 | 1050613 DavidPierre
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The Fourth Turning...
Shallow catholic rhetoric... more aptly named The 4th Turd  ... faith-based tripe ... "bring back tradition!"  it screams... a true believer's rote catechism.
The 4th Turd  is prescriptive, traditionalist, 'virtue-cratic', mombo-jombo, mixed with puritanism and a dash of Tipper Gore. Bring back values like honour and duty, observe decency in personal conduct, discipline, develop tighter societal standards, traditional virtues.
When it's not talking about early historical eras, the book is bemoaning the ever-branching diversity of choices and lifestyles in modern life or criticizing the edginess of pop culture.
All the absurd theory about supposed cycles of the supposed generations, the fabled historical parallels, the dire warning that a new era of crisis is to come, is just an excuse to tell readers to prepare for a crisis era that may or may not be coming by celebrating the importance of authority; cease unconventional behaviour in an era that will demand conformity, and settling down to focus on prescribed values.  A hollow diatribe, pushing to get back to trust in public institutions and in the government... more restrictions on personal behaviour. 

Advice to set up strict regimes of rules, zero tolerance of conflicting opinions, demands on conduct and development to make sure that children can grow up to be the next 'HERO' generation, as they are corraled as fodder for the eternal crusades... a heavily conservative bent sticking out like a sore thumb, no doubt reflecting some of the attitudes and wishes of the infamous liar, SmokeyQuinn.  
The theory about "generations" and "turnings", the quotes and events of early historical generations are only fished out of the shallow AmeriKlan Sea, and, more importantly, ignore the rest of the world... only to find a few lame examples that will make the generations seem to fit into the imaginary pattern.
Worse yet, the portraits painted of the four recurring generational archetypes in the whannabee theory, the predications are incredibly vague and  sound like weakly created parodies.
Of course many theories will run into a FEW problems like this, but The 4th Turd  is whipped up to sound just convincing enough to sell an authoritarian ideology.
Though there is some element of truth in The 4th Turd, certainly mankind's recorded experiences have been one of cyclical ebb and flow, one cannot make anywhere near the many pat characterizations and conclusive and farfetched leaps of simple reason and logic. 
If intended as a work of propaganda, the book is perfect, for all good propaganda contains enough of an element of probable truth to be plausible.
Most everything in this book is arranged and written with the assumption that the thesis is essentially correct, a mode which is overreaching, suspect, and at best sloppy.
The wholesale grading & categorization of people is facile, diminishing, and overly fatalistic.
The book is an oligarchic collectivist's wet dream. The warning is that we are but mindless automatons, locked in an endless and stupid cycle of mass destruction, following our collectivist predestination, but that we might fail and then woe is to us. A stock false choice if there ever was one.
Either these guys were commissioned to write this stuff, or they have a more than adequate knack for figuring out which way the ill wind is blowing and sucking up to the NWO Elites for fun and profit.
Where in The 4th Turd  is the experience of Korea, Viet Nam, the Cold War, all the endless wars, Globalism, consumer society, etc. etc.?
The TRUTH of September 11, 2001, when it is dealt with openly and properly, will be the pivot to the next TURNING.
Truth might finally emerge someday in the semi-consciousness of people like SmokeyQuinn?   Best take that ameriKlan ring out of your nose!

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 14:15 | 1051175 buzzard
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Nice try Mr. Pierre. Heard it all before. No cigar. I understood Strauss and Howe's ideological basis when I read the book in 1997, but it did not detract in any way the truth of their message at all. By the way, have you read it yourself? If not, May I suggest that you do it... soon.


Mr. Quinn, I haven't read a better synopsis by plugging in real data and events since the book was written. Thanks.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 22:03 | 1053219 DavidPierre
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Do you really need people like Quinn to blow smoke up your derriere again?

SmokeyQuinn has no creative ideas of his own, so he just copies and pastes... just feeds off and then regurgitates the dead ideas of Strauss & Howe like a vulture... a buzzard.

God only knows how many times he has rewritten this same stupid article. And now he drags this 4th Turd crap around on ZH again.

Aside from very rough generalities, like S&H’s, quarter century predictions are about as useless as an asshole on your elbow.

SmokeyQuinn liked my above comment so much that he reposted it on his racist and obscene blog.  You would probably like hanging with those MORONs.


{h.t. to the only two sane posters @ }

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 13:47 | 1050927 Escapeclaws
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Ori, let's not throw out the baby with the bath water. We live in a golden age of science and should appreciate that fact. It could very well be that all science and math is approximation and perhaps nothing more, which kind of accords with what I was trying to say about mistaking the model--or theory, if you wish--for the phenomenon or reality.

To falsify what I have to say, you should address the idea that the effect of the butterfly flapping its wings is damped away in the immediate vicinity and thereby prevents the so-called butterfly effect from occurring.  Imagine pulling on a very elastic carpet at one corner of the room. Because of the elasticity, there will be essentially no effect on the other side of the room. Vanishingly small microscopic effects do not count because the whole point of the butterfly effect is that there is a vast magnification of effect. I'm not saying that sensitivity to initial conditions does not exist, but I think the a butterfly flapping its wings is not a good illustration.

Paradoxically, I think pseudoscience--using scientific ideas and terms with no real understanding of what they mean or where they come from--will do more to create an anti-science attitude in society than anything else. I totally disagree with you that science " has run it's course and given us little except better ways to kill ourselves." Blame the negative effects on politicians if you will, but science and math are two of the chief glories of civilization. Profound study of both will show you that they provide the same sense of beauty and mystery that is there in great art and music.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 15:04 | 1051430 tamboo
tamboo's picture

lol we live in the great age of scientific suppression,
look up tesla and schauberger sometime.

"Morgan had already had his technical advisors check the work of Tesla, and they found that Tesla's confounded "energy freely from the active medium" systems (asymmetric systems) were for real.

As a result, Morgan's tech advisors did a group analysis on the Heaviside equations and showed that the Heaviside equations were still ASYMMETRICAL -- and thus they still contained some of those confounded Tesla "free excess energy from the active medium" (i.e., asymmetric) systems. At Morgan's bidding, Lorentz was then elicited to eliminate those "free energy from the active medium" systems from this new-fangled electrical engineering that was being formed. "

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 21:43 | 1053129 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Spot on. Thaks for the link tamboo.


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:57 | 1049965 gwar5
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Can you be found liable?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:24 | 1050064 robobbob
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Its an overused metaphor. but not entirely incorrect. Chaos theory overcomes the problems of attempting to account for a nearly infinite amount of unmeasurable variables, but shows that even the most minute changes in condition can lead to gross divergance of outcome.

The point they are attempting to anecdotally make is that history is not just a collection of random events, nor linear interactions, but are better described by harmonic systems and Fourier analysis. It is not enough to declare a butterfly as a force variable, but to classify it as either a dampening or driving force of what order in relation to the phenomena under study. The effects occurring at the nth wave function typically cancel out, or are simply negligible, however, under certain conditions, reach a point of harmonic convergence that amplifies their effect into noticable and possibly profound outcomes.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:46 | 1050350 flattrader
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What many people don't realize is that the 26 yr. old Tunisian who torched himself over the police insults and the inability to get a permit to sell oranges and olives was NOT the first to set himself on fire.

He was the FIRST to announce it and to do it infront of a cell phone camera.  The images were then spread via Facebook, Twitter etc...

From what I read, there had been a few other cases of self-immolation before this over the course of a few weeks.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:17 | 1049837 Snidley Whipsnae
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Defense contractors that aren't susceptible to tsunamis?


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:51 | 1049951 Weisbrot
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of course they are, it increases their sales. on a tsunami of world peace would affect how and what they do.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:13 | 1049829 Josh Randall
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Kermit's Teflon 20 can outlast any scare -- especially with Captain Bernank at the helm of the S.S. Money Printing Machine

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:18 | 1049844 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:23 | 1049856 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

Food and Water is the most precious commodity now folks...

Bye bye cheap food....

Two Honeybee articles...

Canada's four western provinces have a plethora of natural resources with only 12.5 million citizens....12.5 million citizens!...w/ Vancouver BC it's gateway city...

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:25 | 1050041 Arch Duke Ferdinand
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True or False...Japan is net short 50% food and water now?

True or False...India is currently experiencing +10% food price inflation?

True or False...Iran vs Saudi Arabia War now inevitable?

True or False...Both Iran and Saudi Arabia will blame cause of war because Israel exists?

True or False...Japan will blame reason for Earthquake/Tsunami events on Israel?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:17 | 1049830 doomandbloom
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Newt Gingrich?

That was a name that i have heard as one of the persons participating in dark rituals as part of a satanic cabal...( video search for 'confessions of mother goddess- to david icke')

In that case, yes he will become the next president.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:15 | 1049832 Godot
Godot's picture

By coincidence, I turned 4 times while sleeping last night.


Upon completing the 4th turning, I was joined by Jessica Biel.  So, not all Fourth Turnings are bad.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:19 | 1049846 Sudden Debt
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So you didn't notice that on your fourth turning B.A. also joined you in bed and took you from behind?


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:16 | 1049836 virgilcaine
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Martin Armstrong released from prison..

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:30 | 1050082 robobbob
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Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:18 | 1049838 Sudden Debt
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Or America could enter a new golden age, triumphantly applying shared values to improve the human condition

But to get there, McDonals and Burger King would become 1 company and launch the holy grail of Hamburgers and open a restaurant every 5 miles.


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:19 | 1049849 misterc
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Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:59 | 1050162 ElvisDog
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God, no fucking kidding. While I respect what the author is trying to say with this article, he is stacking one "if" on top of another (if interests rise, and if the honeybees die, and if Newt Gringich is elected president in 2012, and so on). To paraphrase Scotty "if my grandma had wheels, she'd be a wagon".

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:25 | 1049853 High Plains Drifter
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American air craft carrier crew exposed to nuclear radiation. What does this mean?

what does this mean? contaminated? I didn't know there was any way to help someone who has been exposed.

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:28 | 1049875 Snidley Whipsnae
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Buy puts on large, annoying Pink Bunnies?

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 11:35 | 1050283 Pants McPants
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Hmmm, what's the correct term for this situation?  Irony really doesn't do it justice. 

US soldiers exposed to nuclear radiation in a country they bombed (and still occupy) using nuclear weapons. 

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:24 | 1049860 oh_bama
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Someone please tell me:


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:38 | 1049906 Oh regional Indian
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BTF dip-shit maybe?


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:24 | 1049862 4ndy
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Did someone watched this:

Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:26 | 1049867 Sudden Debt
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Did anybody look at the reactor number 3 building?



All the fuel rods are dry right now. Does anybody know how long they can last dry before a total meltdown?


Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:33 | 1049894 Snidley Whipsnae
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Stoneleigh at Automatic Earth has a PHD in nuclear safety...or, somehting similar...

Here is her take on the situation...

" Pre-damage heat up. "In the absence of a two-phase mixture going through the core or of water addition to the core to compensate water boiloff, the fuel rods in a steam environment will heatup at a rate between 0.3 K/s and 1 K/s (3)."

  • Fuel ballooning and bursting. "In less than half an hour, the peak core temperature would reach 1100 K. At this temperature, the zircaloy cladding of the fuel rods may balloon and burst. This is the first stage of core damage. Cladding ballooning may block a substantial portion of the flow area of the core and restrict the flow of coolant. However complete blockage of the core is unlikely because not all fuel rods balloon at the same axial location. In this case, sufficient water addition can cool the core and stop core damage progression."
  • Rapid oxidation. "The next stage of core damage, beginning at approximately 1500 K, is the rapid oxidation of the Zircaloy by steam. In the oxidation process, hydrogen is produced and a large amount of heat is released. Above 1500 K, the power from oxidation exceeds that from decay heat (4,5) unless the oxidation rate is limited by the supply of either zircaloy or steam."
  • Debris bed formation. "When the temperature in the core reaches about 1700 K, molten control materials [1,6] will flow to and solidify in the space between the lower parts of the fuel rods where the temperature is comparatively low. Above 1700 K, the core temperature may escalate in a few minutes to the melting point of zircaloy (2150 K) due to increased oxidation rate. When the oxidized cladding breaks, the molten zircaloy, along with dissolved UO2 [1,7] would flow downward and freeze in the cooler, lower region of the core. Together with solidified control materials from earlier down-flows, the relocated zircaloy and UO2 would form the lower crust of a developing cohesive debris bed."
  • (Corium) Relocation to the lower plenum. "In scenarios of small-break LOCAs, there is generally. a pool of water in the lower plenum of the vessel at the time of core relocation. Release of molten core materials into water always generates large amounts of steam. If the molten stream of core materials breaks up rapidly in water, there is also a possibility of a steam explosion. During relocation, any unoxidized zirconium in the molten material may also be oxidized by steam, and in the process hydrogen is produced. Recriticality also may be a concern if the control materials are left behind in the core and the relocated material breaks up in unborated water in the lower plenum."
  • Her entire post here...

    Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:30 | 1049877 lunaticfringe
    lunaticfringe's picture

    Tyler I'm a little shocked you have not run anything on steak and blowjob day. That's the big news today. I'm a little concerned. Thinking maybe, you are a chica? Eh?

    Mon, 03/14/2011 - 09:33 | 1049890 Silverhog
    Silverhog's picture

    Wow, the explosion at #3 looks far worse than #1. Can't imagine that any pipe lines are still intact. New report coming in on CNN Blog that #2 may have experienced a meltdown. I guess we could expect another explosion is coming.

    Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:07 | 1050000 Sudden Debt
    Sudden Debt's picture



    It seems one of the former workers forget to take his new iPad 2.0 home and it now seems it may not have survived the blast.

    Apple on the other hand already send out a press release that the warranty does cover any steam vapor damages (radioactive or not)

    as a reason BUT, in order to get a new one, the iPad needs to be returned IN A SEALED PACKAGE AS BOUGHT.

    Also the owner died in the blast and blablabla...




    Mon, 03/14/2011 - 10:52 | 1050145 barkingbill
    barkingbill's picture

    don't worry these explosions are a special breed of massive atomic power station explosions which are actually without any dangerous radioactivity. even though the entire building is blown to kingdom come the core always remains intact. there is no meltdown, or maybe there is a partial meltdown, or you know some people call it a meltdown, but there is no danger. lol. 

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!