Guest Post: Global Macro Update

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Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:50 | 499648 Chemba
Chemba's picture

vix has already violated the bollinger bands hourly

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:52 | 499768 ATG
ATG's picture

Yes. Lower 3 SD Hourly BB also.

Maybe all over but the shouting as VIX ramps up.

Can we eat or plant bonds or equities?

Can we hunt with them?

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:58 | 499663 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

rally in equities would be more beneficial to the economy than anything else is very revealing, if not incriminating in my opinion...

It struck me last night that the world could be literally falling apart. So long as TPTB can refer to the Dow as above 10k, nobody would even notice.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:40 | 499741 Battleaxe
Battleaxe's picture

This house has been falling down for years. Instead of fixing the roof, repairing the foundation and replacing the rotten wood, they've just been painting over the problems for years. The thick buildup of paint is all that is holding the place together. Now that it's obvious to everyone that the increasingly frequent paint jobs aren't fixing the problem, they've decided to install vinyl siding.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:11 | 499806 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

look out of your bunker, there are MASSES of people who are clueless and who rather just label all things financial as 'i don't need to worry about' just like they do for everything besides the narrow focus they can spare...  these people just want to live their life and will ignore it to the end

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 11:58 | 499668 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

couldn't agree with you more about Greenspan's comment. Clearly, it doesn't matter if the rigging is as blatant as a 90 foot high neon sign.....these guys are going to ram this market higher than a kite before the election.

scary, tho, when you think what happens the day after election day. personally, i'm moving all my cash out now.....

this is all way too dicey and fake for my blood.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:23 | 499708 bmusic
bmusic's picture

Step 1 - A higher stock market indicates confidence

Step 2 - Confidence ends recessions/depressions

Step 3 - The end of recessions/depression mean a higher stock market. Return to Step 1.

 

It seems like he's onto something.  Nowhere in this  solution to you hear anything about economic data or fundamentals. 

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:45 | 499754 Young
Young's picture

But who's gonna buy it (the market), I still don't understand. And what if the baby boomers where lured in yet again by Dow 20.000, the government would have to pay even more of the pensions once it blows up in their face yet again - I don't understand the Greenspan fuckers logic. Clearly senile...

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:54 | 499777 ATG
ATG's picture

Behaviorists, led by a guy named BF Skinner, who worked with pigeons, believed they could cure all ills with behavior population control.

Still waiting on that one too.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:02 | 499671 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Regarding Greenspan, the equity idea of a rally being beneficial to the economy has been his mantra now for a few months. Every time he shows up somewhere he repeats that same line about equities. Nothing new.

As far as the markets go, I'd be inclined to be pretty bullish far into the "medium" term as in decent movement higher over the next 18 months. We've made it through all the near term "horror" without a collapse or even near collapse. I believe it's been delayed, not taken off the table, at least 18 months though.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:07 | 499675 HelluvaEngineer
HelluvaEngineer's picture

Did you just get your crystal ball tuned up or something?

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:09 | 499679 jdrose1985
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dude are you fucking kidding me. I knew you'd be back around but i really underestimated you. I thought you wouldnt be dumb enough to continue posting under the same name after May.

You're a better contrary indicator than Goldman's client desk. For reelz.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:22 | 499703 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Huh? I went short, did very well. Went into cash nearly four weeks ago, where I've remained and now am still waiting a bit. No hurry to rush in until after Friday's jobs number.

Look, we've had mediocre to terrible economic news but some fairly decent earnings. At this point, I think we need some time for the European crisis to really rock, China to show a sustained descent and the US to get past elections and Bush tax cuts before a real turn lower.

Seriously, what's the catalyst now to take us lower near term? Haven't we seen the market shrug off just about everything lately? 

I've been completely transparent about my position. Now, I'm leaning back to being bullish until all the stimulus worldwide runs short and the real crisis ensues. That should be around 2012. 

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:29 | 499715 PatsPal
PatsPal's picture

Harry, you have the right to change your opinon and I don't blame you. Don't be married to being bearish. I for one am sick and tired of being bearish and losing money everyday. What good is being right and going broke at the same time? My view is that we have all lost and the Central bank has complete control. There is nothing anyone can do but ride along with them. You're other choice is to lose money.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:50 | 499767 Young
Young's picture

Who isn't fucking sick of it, I've hoped so much the last couple of days that I could've been confused for a catholic priest hoping for little boy butt...

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:38 | 499864 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

maybe I've got Harry all wrong. But harry lost his tone of resignation and is back to being bold again since he was mopped up back in may.

You're not transparent Harry. please link to where u said u were going short? Maybe I'm wrong.

best action a bear can take sometimes is no action at all. I'm too dumb to make money in equity la la land in its current form.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 15:18 | 500013 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

May 15th was the day I closed all long positions and initiated SDS. Kept adding, trading in and out as subsequent posts detailed.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/record-swiss-franc-volatility-300-pips-...

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 16:52 | 500162 Fox Moulder
Fox Moulder's picture

I saw the post where he said he was going short. IIRC it was on a massive up day and I made a smartass remark about it.

 

Give the guy some credit.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:38 | 499730 Deep
Deep's picture

well lets see

1) leading indicators falling off a cliff

2) estimates way too high for 2nd half of year and next year

3)growth will slow, even the bulls are seeing this

I could go on on, but either the Bond Market is wrong or the Equity Market is wrong, I have to bet with Mr. Bond

 

As well, I am positioned for a slow, long drawn out fundamental downtrend until we finally hit bottom. That is why I short the real way, not these bullshit leveraged ETF's. If you have enough margin, you can sit on these shorts like I have for the last 3 months, and not lose time decay as well as losing the leverage part when you are wrong and the market has to go twice the move just to break even.  Yes i am down a little, but no big deal. I have done my homework and am very confident we will see 850-900 S&P soon. Dont know when, but anyone who thinks they do is an idiot.

 

This day to day stuff is all noise.

 

 

 

 

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:38 | 499731 old_turk
old_turk's picture

18 months is a loonnnnngggg time in this market Harry. 

 

I'd stick with up into October ... then all hell breaks loose.

 

From a fixed income guy, not really a equities market type, but from a technical point of view ... October is going to be 'dicey'.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:00 | 499781 ATG
ATG's picture

And your compelling evidence is....?

On the other side of the ledger,

the W 28 July 2010 towering high

of 182% of opening option transactions

were calls, retesting the 185% on 15 April

2010 just before the 26 April 2010 SPX peak.

http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126 

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:02 | 499672 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

There's a giant yellow banner (sponsored by Schwab at the top of Marketwatch web page that says "Markets awash in global wave of hope"). 

It's attempting to appear as a new headline. Yikes. 

And then there is this:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-says-states-should-build-bigge...

Basically states should build a bigger rainy day fund. Are you kidding me? Illinois has $5 billion in UNPAID bills. I think we've left the "rainy day" fund opportunity a few years ago...Wow.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:47 | 499759 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

Markets awash in global wave of hope.

Hope has never been a very viable investment strategy for me. To anyone taking it as gospel, good luck with that.  

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:08 | 499677 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Market must stop here.

Otherwise, bears are toast.

 

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:01 | 499792 ATG
ATG's picture

Most bears are toast, precisely why the markets may stop here soon.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:12 | 499686 Catullus
Catullus's picture

Long: f-bombs

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:34 | 499725 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

LMAO!! Amen brother. However, for the life of me, I don't understand how the equity/real estate farce can grab higher bids and gold SELLS off. That's what has my tower in a twist.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:02 | 499794 ATG
ATG's picture

Gold telling us something vitally important here:

QE II a myth like investing in hope.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:33 | 499850 bmusic
bmusic's picture

Exactly, why actually implement QE2, when the myth of it seems to do the trick (ie Dow 10000+)?

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:13 | 499690 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

This better turn around real soon.

Otherwise, "General Jim" is history.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:06 | 499798 ATG
ATG's picture

Mr Sinclair called for parabolic gold since the 1980 peak.

His TRE still below 2007 highs:

http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?tre

Trees do not grow to the sky.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:18 | 499698 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Looks like more REIT breakouts...

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:06 | 499797 Young
Young's picture

Agree... I don't agree with Nic's targets, if they go that high they'll go higher. It's now or never.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:24 | 499709 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

The market is having a problem with maintaining this mornings momentum. Late day sell off?

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:29 | 499716 HitTheFan
HitTheFan's picture

I think this tape looks very similar to the days just before the 'flash crash'.

 

It would not surprise me to see it happen again today, or in a day or two.

All the big money will head for the exits at the same time, leaving mugs holding the rubbish.

Any time now, I called it first!!

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 17:06 | 500183 ThreeTrees
ThreeTrees's picture

Of late I've been thinking the same thing.  The movements on the EUR/JPY are piling into support/resistance triangles, the same divergence from 4 months ago is forming on the MACD as well as Stochastics, ATR is near its pre flash-crash lows as would be expected with the decreasing range of movement in the technical wedge...

Price rides the 20 EMA up to resistance until it drops.  When I draw the resistance and support lines I can't help but think Elliote Wave is on to something.  It's eerily fractal.  But then I'm a noob so what do I know.

Maybe not Flashcrash 2, but maybe good for a decent correction?

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:49 | 499763 PatsPal
PatsPal's picture

Nah. I have been hearing that dribble for a long time. Market will just keep going higher and higher and higher. In two years my house will be back up to its ultimate high. Obama will be wearing a crown of jewels and the people will be debt slaves once again.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:13 | 499814 ATG
ATG's picture

You mean Barry Soetero Saebarkah who got Educational Aid as a foreign national with the CT social security et al?

http://www.scribd.com/doc/35163631/Stanley-Ann-Dunham-Obama-Soetoro-Pass...

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:51 | 499769 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

High asset prices have and will continue to be a core of FED policy short at your peril...global liquidity is ramping

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:14 | 499817 ATG
ATG's picture

"global liquidity is ramping"

So why is gold dropping, eh TB?

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:33 | 499852 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Paper gold is being "managed"  by the price fixers, call JPM if you have issues, seasonality is working against GC, yet I am ecouraged we are 30 bucks off last weeks low....

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 12:56 | 499778 Young
Young's picture

The bulls are clearly in charge, there's no fire power on the downside at all. Correction, the HFT-bulls...

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:16 | 499820 ATG
ATG's picture

"The bulls are clearly in charge, there's no fire power on the downside at all."

So why is red volume heavier than green volume?

BX Doll can cheerlead all he wants, but Elvis has left the market...

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:24 | 499831 AccreditedEYE
AccreditedEYE's picture

I think you mean BLK Doll.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:41 | 499872 Young
Young's picture

I don't care if your red bars are bigger than your green... Look at the price action: market starts to sell off, loses steam, bulls knocks price back with one order - there is no follow through on the downside. That's what I meant.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:37 | 499860 bmusic
bmusic's picture

Somedays I think the HFTs are setting themselves up for the Big Plunge, I just don't know what the catalyst will be light the fuse.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 13:54 | 499895 Young
Young's picture

There goes aapl, rest of the market doesn't care, even if it's 20% of Nasdaq 100

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 14:25 | 499941 newstreet
newstreet's picture

I guess I'm toast.

Mon, 08/02/2010 - 18:17 | 500254 JonTurk
JonTurk's picture

Nic is turning crazy like a spin doctor.. what a typical sell side daze :))

my eyes on S&P 1140 (61.8 fibo retracement of the whole move down from april top), will be a big surprize for the overexcited bulls after head-faking the swing top @ 1131

just thinking that they won't push QE2 button in hey-days... need some bloodbath in the markets for the excuse

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