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Guest Post: Gold, Black Gold and Equities Technical Charts
Submitted by Chris Vermeulen of www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com
Guest Post: Gold, Black Gold and Equities Technical Charts
July 7th, 2010
It’s been a short but exciting week so far. Investors and traders are
have been scratching their heads the past few days as stocks continued
to bounce around giving mixed signals. But today was a clear day of
short covering from this much oversold market condition.
Below are a few charts showing what I’m currently thinking will
unfold in the near future.
Gold Futures Trading – 2 Hour Chart
In the past couple weeks we sold our position in gold at $1255-60
area in anticipation for this sharp drop. The market was kind enough to
show us though its price and volume action that a nasty drop was just
around the corner. Currently we are in cash waiting for the down trend
momentum to stall and reverse before taking another long position in
gold. I feel it could still drop one more time, but the chart is giving
mixed signals when reviewing the short term charts.
Crude Oil Futures – Daily Trading Chart
Crude has seen a shift in the trend over the past 2-3 months. Selling
volume over took the buyers and are now pulling prices down into bear
flag pattern which means lower prices still.
SP500 Futures – 60 Minute Trading Chart
SP500 and other major indexes have been selling down the past couple
weeks. Tuesday we saw the market gap up very big then sell off. But that
surge higher was an early warning sign that the selling momentum was
slowing for the time being.
1075 on the SP500 is a key resistance level and a point which many
traders will be taking profits and trying to short the market. That will
create a lot of selling pressure at that level and only time will tell
if we can clear it.
Mid-Week Commodity and Index Trading Conclusion:
It looks as though we are getting the over due bounce in the stock
market everyone has been anticipating. The large rally today (Wednesday)
has covered most of the ground as it has moved up over 3% today.
Overhead resistance looks to be only 2% away before sellers step back in
and try to pull the market back down.
If the market goes up for another couple days then gold should have a
small pullback to test support. When the equities market starts to drop
again money should flow back into gold and send it higher as the safe
haven of choice.
Crude oil broke down late last week and this week it bounced back up
to retest the breakdown level. This is common and once complete oil
should continue to drop.
The market is still in a strong down trend on an intermediate basis
so be sure to lock in profits once your investments reach key resistance
levels. If you don’t the market has a way of taking back those gains
very quickly in the current market condition.
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Gold, bitchez
Gold hasn't broken the long term trendline, but I think we can get all the way down to 1150if we're unlucky.
Who's we sucker?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6-Snl4a1RI
Boy, we never get tired of that.
Disagree with S&P analysis...1.075 will not be reached.. listen to Borat... whawhaeeeewha Hi 5.
I guess I wasn't the only one expecting a rally this week...
Im sorry I was staring a the SP 500 death cross and missed the rally. We go higher. The melt up will continue. The levels will be breached from below and suck all the negs off the stools. When good news is bad and bad news is worse....its time to buy. Or as they say...If you see Barton run past Krugman and hi 5 Roubini...its time to cover and get involved. Shorts are crowded into one camp like its internment. This rally will have more legs then the Rockettes at Xmas. Let it ride...and stop playing the dont pass. Groupthink will suck your profits.
Don't know why CNBS is having some "special programming" with a one-hour special on the market jump today, instead of Cramer. Huh.
Maybe I'd be more upset if I missed Cramer passing a kidney stone or something. Bastard...
I passed one the size of a pea a few months ago. Uric acid type so x-rays and ultrasounds don't necessarily catch them which is what really pissed me off. No one could tell me for sure why I was pissing blood, constantly running to the toilet to dribble, extreme abdominal pains and the nauseating feeling of constipation. When I finally pissed it out, I injured my hand from all the high 5's.
lol ya its still on now, and its titled 'MARKET REBOUND' in big caps.
Of course they havent' done the same when it was a market down day (or 9 past down days from the last 2 weeks)..
I hate Simon Nobbs.
I saw something very interesting today. Look at the periodicity of the bottoms in the gold producers stock prices. Looks tradeable.
Whoops forgot this.http://www.kitco.com/ind/Townsend/jul072010.html
i dont care. thats how i fight.
So much for the H&S on the SP500. With everybody talking about it, it was pretty obvious that it will fail.
see '08 for a failed H&S... oh ya still worked..
H&S last summer had the same 'everyone sees it so we go the other way' action and rally continued for some time. This time is different because we don't have the stimulus ahead and we are not in the explosive part of a for-sure 'recovery'. Last summer, everything was rosy and green shoots were blossoming ... this summer no so much.
This reaction rally may last 3-10 days then reality sets in and we go down for last time.
Dollar cost average SH (or SDS, TZA, and SKF) starting now ... go all in at 1137 (if we get that far)
The market is looking for a QE2
I wonder why he uses /YG instead of /GC ??
i disagree also. i think resistance is at 1085, possibly 1090, before reversal
we'll see. very interesting here
I see a sliding turtle wedge upon double elbow pivot. Means the market will go up, if not, it will go down. Would you like to subscribe to my newsletter?
Wow, I was thinking the same thing but it really looked more like a leveraged double elbow pivot or even a true inverted turning point ... maybe
Or....it could be a flying bag of hammers and a net full of WD-40. Lots of safe havens available with the St. Andrews cross developing in GS. If the big boyz pile into GLD we should short ebay and let the chips fall where they may because south of the border they have enough silver to cause a turnip to become a watermelon.......if you know what I mean.
Dude, Margrett Brennon is looking pretty damn hot this week! Maybe she's driving the markets?
gold could either go up or it could go down depending upon what the meaning of "up" and "down" is..
I says to my "bro" Bernnanke the other day.
Lissen up dude, if you need me to spot you some bullion out my yard you just say so. Cause I like believe in the American Dream and all. (I'm a canadian but who gives a shit).
Anyways, the "bro" says "WHASSUPPPPPP you be good and sells me some of those bars you've gots and we be good to yas'
I said to the "bro". Yo we good.
counterpoint
Then the BIs points out that Central banks worldwide are taking their gold to BIS pawnshop cause they are friggin broke.
me thinks i'll put up a foot and smoke a big dubey cigar...........
Yup.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/07/imf-engaged-in-gold-swa...
Whoa! Market went up! Market went up!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Jlv8F9cerA
hmmm ... sell gold, buy oil.
this may not be a HEAD n SHOULDERS pattern at all.....what about a rising wedge....as this article suggests...
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article20598.html
can anyone explain to me what happens in case this market is really a rising wedge.....???
What you will clearly see when you pull your copy of "Technical Analysis of the Futures Market" out from underneath your pillow (you do keep it there?) is confirmation of what that author claims.
That is correct as far as it goes. However, I have not really been charting equities for the last couple of years due to my longstanding belief that a chart is a representation of mass psychology and increasingly over the last few years, the majority of the participants are non-human (not that an argument cannot be made that is has ever been thus; but we are talking actual computers executing trades rather than humans recently). Now humans programmed the computers, so there is still some broken-down correlation, but not enough to stake serious money on charting (other than the 1 minute version).
Based on historical patterns and long term statistical means, it is worth throwing some beer money at a few shorts but the long term generational buy may be approaching within two years and that is why you want dry powder available to take advantage. It is not outside the realm of possibility that the real flush could come from the dollar with equities taking only a glancing blow. Be very careful now. Its not safe (trading) out there.
Ok, i've decided i can't put it off any longer - here it is ...
Scary DOW monthly chart.
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
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