This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: The Gold-Silver Ratio – Another Look

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Andrey Dashkov of Casey Research

The Gold-Silver Ratio – Another Look

The gold-silver ratio (GSR) measures how many ounces of silver one can purchase for an ounce of gold, on a certain date.

Reference
to the ratio has a long history. One of the first mentions was that
upon the death of Alexander the Great, the ratio was 12.5 to 1. During
the Roman Empire, the ratio was set at 12. By the late 19th century, the
ratio had risen to 15.

Interestingly, these historical ratios
roughly reflect geologists’ estimates that silver is 17 times more
abundant than gold in the earth’s crust. This gives many investors a
reason to believe that 17 is the natural balance between these elements,
and that eventually the GSR will return to it.

Monitoring the GSR
is quite popular among gold and silver investors. It seems that
whenever it makes a big move, many start drawing conclusions about the
direction of the prices of its underlying metals.

Here at Casey
Research, we stick to the dictum that the GSR “suggests a lot but proves
nothing.” Indeed, the GSR is determined by the price action of gold and
silver; the price action of gold and silver is not determined by the
GSR. Rather, each metal’s price is influenced by various fundamental
factors. What complicates any analysis of interactions between gold and
silver prices is that the two metals have different markets, each with
peculiar supply and demand structures.

Briefly reviewed, the gold
market is characterized by a large above-ground supply as the vast
majority of gold ever mined still exists in refined form, and annual
mine supply represents only a small fraction of that volume. Demand is
mostly for jewelry and investment. Gold is not widely used for
industrial purposes.

Silver demand, by contrast, is mainly for
industrial fabrication of things like electronics and batteries. The
metal is consumed during the process and removed from above-ground
stocks. The other major areas of demand are jewelry, investment,
photography, coins and household silver, in that order. Supply comes
mainly from mining and scrap recycling.

From this picture comes
one conclusion: over time, supply and demand for the two metals has been
fluctuating in response to industrial and technological advancements,
shifts in monetary systems and market turbulence. Today, as investment
and jewelry are the primary sources of gold demand and most of the
silver goes into industrial and related applications, it is no surprise
that the gold-silver ratio is different than the historical average of
17. The following chart shows how the ratio has fluctuated since 1968.

The GSR was extremely volatile over the past five decades and averaged
53.5 from 1968 to April 2011; during the last ten years (since April 2,
2001), the ratio averaged 61.8.

The ratio has been falling for
several months, however, as shown on the chart above.
Counterintuitively, however, rumors that a low GSR signals undervalued
silver started spreading. We say counterintuitively here since it is
unclear why a falling GSR should signal undervaluation after silver
gained over 80% within a year. Appeals to the mega-long-term GSR of 17
alone do not seem to provide enough basis to think that silver will
continue to soar indefinitely.

As of April 1, the GSR stands at
37.7. We, however, do not think that it is going to fall to 20 or 15
from this point: history shows that high volatility is the ratio’s
essence. After a plunge, there usually follows a rapid surge. That
happened in 1980 when gold reached its inflation-adjusted peak, and in
1987 and 1997. We don’t know how steep the current plunge in the ratio
will be, of course, but using history as a guide, we do not expect the
ratio to continue its decline for much longer.

Uncertainty about
the economic recovery in the Western world and the growth of developing
countries can result in slowing industrial output and hence falling
demand for silver that would hinder the price. These conditions also
create a favorable environment for gold driven by safe-haven demand. In
such circumstances, the ratio may climb.

History shows that the
GSR tends to rise significantly during a recession and create an interim
peak on the way. See the chart below.

We
believe that the measures taken by the current administration to battle
the recession are largely counterproductive, temporary, and will be
unable to prevent the onset of another major economic decline. It is
difficult to judge when the turmoil might start, but the odds of it
happening soon get higher as the levels of government debt increase and
the dollar is debased. When push comes to shove, the GSR can react
quickly and create a fluctuation of an unpredictable magnitude.

In
times of recession, as we discussed above, gold and silver behave in a
quite different manner. Have a look at the following charts.

Note
that it is not quite statistically sound to plot a ratio against one of
its components, but for the purpose of illustration we find it quite
useful.

As you can see, in 1980 gold and silver both peaked on a
historically low GSR. This may imply that a low ratio can take place not
only when silver appreciates faster than gold (as it did in 2010 and so
far in 2011), but also when fundamental and speculative conditions
influence both metals. Of course, the 1980 silver peak happened while
the infamous Hunt brothers were massively accumulating the metal.

Conventional
opinion attributes silver’s rise to the Hunts, but we are skeptical. It
cannot be determined to what degree the metal would have otherwise
risen absent the Hunts in the market. In any case, attempts to influence
markets are nothing new – today, major investment banks are accused of
manipulating the silver market by holding huge short positions that
cause artificial price suppression.

Returning to the charts and
how gold and silver behaved in the last recession, we can see that
silver moved counter to the GSR while gold moved in a mixed, sideways
pattern. Because of this, many see a lot of upside potential for silver,
but we should not forget that silver is the denominator in the ratio.
So absent strong fluctuations in gold – and gold was on an ascent since
the beginning of 2009 – the GSR would to some extent simply mirror
silver price movements.

The silver price was also influenced by
hopes that the global economy is reviving and that industrial demand is
going to last. In 2010, silver gained more than 80% while gold added
less than 30%. The difference resulted in the GSR falling throughout
2010. Will that performance be repeated? We cannot say. Speculators
should remember that the GSR is merely a ratio of two prices often
driven by different forces. It has limited, if any, predictive power.

With
that in mind, we will finish by juxtaposing the ratio against the
Toronto Venture Exchange (TSX-V) index, and it reveals an interesting
picture: it seems that the TSX-V has been negatively correlated with the
ratio for the last ten years. Again, statistically it’s arguable if a
ratio should be compared to an index, but looking at various
combinations of time series, and the stunning correlation, we couldn’t
help ourselves.

It
would be easy to conclude that there is a strong – and negative –
correlation between the index and the ratio. However, this correlation
does not provide any sort of guidance on whether the metals themselves
look expensive or not, or where mining stocks are headed. An interesting
image, that’s all it is.

Conclusion

The
gold-silver ratio attracts a lot of attention nowadays, but it is not a
reliable tool in an investor’s toolbox, and we don’t think it can
predict future price movements. But the reality is that nothing does.
Those who look at GSR charts, including ours above, should not forget to
analyze all the fundamentals behind the price movements of both gold
and silver. We advise you to be extremely cautious and not get caught in
the trap of believing that a single number or ratio, or a set of them,
can provide you with a crystal ball.

Identifying an opportunity
for future profit based on facts and a reasonable amount of risk is
another thing. This is what we do day in and day out – just not based on
the GSR.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:50 | 1273094 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Trade your paper in for BOTH!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:53 | 1273100 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Unplug Grandma and collect her gold fillings.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:08 | 1273136 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

Punch her in the face and take 'em. Grandma rode the Ponzi expecting the Grandkids to pay for it all. Leave her plugged in to watch it all crash and burn.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:28 | 1273179 asdasmos
asdasmos's picture
Radio Interview with Chris Whalen

http://youtu.be/gTIt3x747Ak

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:42 | 1273202 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Max Keiser guest Eric Sprott on commodities prices [gold,silver] (12May11)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PM-LrMimRys

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 03:36 | 1273886 Debt is Slavery
Debt is Slavery's picture

+Max & Stacy

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 06:47 | 1273955 Silver Shield
Mon, 05/16/2011 - 02:39 | 1278317 ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

Chris is worth listening to. He's one of the few honest banking industry insiders.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 20:52 | 1273440 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

deleted, sic of my own griping.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:02 | 1273583 Bent Nail
Bent Nail's picture

I can commiserate with that . . . I so wanted to retort but decided it would have been wasted keystrokes.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 11:50 | 1274261 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

+++

Their stupidity would have kept them from any comprehension anyway!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:48 | 1273554 FlyPaper
FlyPaper's picture

According to Amity Schlaes (http://www.amityshlaes.com/) in her book the Forgotton Man, we come to find out that one Franklin D. Roosevelt knew from actuarial tables that Social Security would go bust, but he signed off on it because it was populist and served his short-term political ends.

 

"In Flemming v. Nestor, 363 U.S. 603 (1960), the U.S. Supreme Court set the record straight. Social Security is actually nothing more than an umbrella term for two schemes that are legally unrelated: a taxation scheme and a welfare scheme.

Workers and their families have no legal claim, grounded in the Fifth Amendment or elsewhere, on the FICA tax payments that they make into the U.S. Treasury, or that are made on their behalf."  [Charles Rounds].   Those funds are gone.

So what we have here is a massive payroll tax scam.  From the very beginning the politicians tried to cover this baloney with misleading ads and statements that continue to this day.  Fact is the government spent all the money, and there is no money in the SS "trust" fund.  That the "trust" fund is still discussed appears to be nothing more than a legacy of the ruse.  (And by the way, Clinton only had a budget surplus because they included the SS taxes.  Go to YouTube "I.O.U.S.A" for an excellent illustration of this point.

What Granny is, is a multi-generational victim of fraud, not the perpetrator.  In fact, you'd have to go to Granny's grandparents if you want to set blame for voting for FDR and the "New Deal."   We should rename ponzi schemes and hereafter call them "Roosevelt schemes."  

Anyone see any similarities between Social Security and Obamacare?  (Making political promises they can't fund?)

Ain't Granny's fault.  Lighten up.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:29 | 1273629 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture


by FlyPaper
on Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:48
#1273554

 

According to Amity Schlaes (http://www.amityshlaes.com/) in her book the Forgotton Man, we come to find out that one Franklin D. Roosevelt knew from actuarial tables that Social Security would go bust, but he signed off on it because it was populist and served his short-term political ends.

 

"In Flemming v. Nestor, 363 U.S. 603 (1960), the U.S. Supreme Court set the record straight. Social Security is actually nothing more than an umbrella term for two schemes that are legally unrelated: a taxation scheme and a welfare scheme.

Workers and their families have no legal claim, grounded in the Fifth Amendment or elsewhere, on the FICA tax payments that they make into the U.S. Treasury, or that are made on their behalf."  [Charles Rounds].   Those funds are gone.

 

******************************************************************************

Republicans! Stealing $2.5 surplus from Social Security - Robbing The Middle Class http://goo.gl/m8QMq

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:16 | 1274075 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

In all fairness it was a Democrat, and one of the authors of the Dumb-Fuck Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, who sought the intellectual validation of the Bernankus Stupidus for the decision to allocate 100% of the assets of the Social Security Trust Fund to US Government bonds.

Regardless of the wisdom, or lack thereof, in the push for private social security accounts, despite the fact that they are analagous to authorizing the use of SNAP cards in casinos where the slot machines are legally rigged in the House's favor, BOTH PARTIES freely feed at comrade Greenspan's trough. 

Government Pension Fund of Norway, with a couple percent of the world's public equity and significant other tangible assets is worth infinitely more than its US equivalent, if for no other reason than neither Ben Bernanke nor Øystein Olsen can conjure its paper out of thin air and thus directly dilute the Fund's value.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 11:50 | 1274269 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

+100

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:16 | 1274689 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by Urban Redneck
on Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:16
#1274075

 

In all fairness it was a Democrat,

*************************************************************

the video doesnt have anything to do with republicans doing anything.. I jat added the word "republicans" to see what kind of response I would get.

the facts are below.

The Gang of 6 Raising the Retirement Age & Reducing Social Security Benefits http://goo.gl/Aix0y  All for the Surplus $

http://www.dickipedia.org/dick.php?title=The_Gang_of_Six Reducing Social Security Benefits http://goo.gl/m8QMq All for YOUR! Surplus Money!

 

Sen. Ben Nelson [D(ick)-Neb.]

Gang of 6 Member Nelson, Ben (D-NE) $14 Million Dollar Lobby Whore http://goo.gl/i29tJ  And! who owns him http://goo.gl/DvBWP

 

Sen. Mary Landrieu [D(ick)-La.]

Gang of 6 Member Landrieu, Mary L (D-LA) $24 Million Dollar Lobby Whore http://goo.gl/dwFxO And! who owns her http://goo.gl/tM3bG

 

 

 

Sen. Ron Wyden [D(ick)-Ore.]

Gang of 6 Member Wyden, Ron (D-OR) $23 Million Dollar Lobby Whore http://goo.gl/GnQKf And! who owns him http://goo.gl/zNRvN 

 

 

Independent Dick Sen. Joe Lieberman, from Connectidick

Gang of 6 Member Lieberman, Joe (I-Conn) $49 Million Dollar Lobby Whore http://goo.gl/C7tSk And! who owns him http://goo.gl/XospA   

 

Sen. Olympia Snowe [R(eally big dick)-Me.]

Gang of 6 Member Snowe, Olympia J (R-ME) $10 Million Dollar Lobby Whore http://goo.gl/5ArgP And! who owns her http://goo.gl/zj2JJ

 

Sen. Susan Collins [R(eally big dick)-Me.]

Gang of 6 Member Collins, Susan, M (R-ME) $14 Million Dollar Lobby Whore http://goo.gl/X8I73 And! who owns her http://goo.gl/1dcLY

 

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:08 | 1274757 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

not quite the simplistic one sided party hack response...

JW- We craft and draft different punji sticks but I think your mind and heart are in a balanced place.  I have crap internet 90% of the time- so I avoid video as a matter of habit.  Until all the halls of power are painted the same color of shit I will remain an equal opportunity bigot. 

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 08:56 | 1275847 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

In all fairness, get the damn government out of my pocket. Who, in their right mind, thinks the government can manage your wealth for you? If it is such a good idea, then why must we be coerced to contribute?

Are poor people any safer with the safety net? Maybe if you don't land in a spot with a gaping hole. The holes are propagating. The net is no longer being repaired.

Government is incapable of providing ANY service in an efficient manner, nor is it able to meet the needs of consumers- as it doesn't have to.

The problem is not which party is the villian- it is government that is the villian. The best source for consumer and business satisfaction is the elimination of government. We need to stop pandering to the Elite parasites that use this structure to drain our wealth, production and savings. We need to eliminate state sponsored welfare, warfare, taxation, monoplies and predatory systems of law that benefit a tiny minority of the population.

There is not one fully defensible argument in favor of government. There is no such thing as a public good that cannot be provided cheaper and better by the market. The reason is remarkably simple: the market MUST cater to the needs of its' customers in order to be successful. The State has no such requirement since it can depend on its' COERCIVE power to do what it pleases- including defending itself from the people it supposedly serves. 

There is no world where the systems established by the State would be as efficient or consumer friendly as a free market. The excuse of a search for the ideal leadership is the cruelest myth ever perpetrated on humanity. The excuse that mankind is flawed and incapable of perfection is true, but disingenious. If true, you do not continue on, you find a mechanism that negates its' effects. The free market does this.

The retort that there would be problems in a free market as well, is true, but disingenious as well. The problems would be less severe and resolved in a manner lacking the devastating violence of the State. 

 

 

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 16:20 | 1276953 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

JW in FL = douche

 

You should watch South Park more often.  You would've caught the Ocean's 11 - election episode, where they show it didn't matter which side won.  Both Dems and GOPs teamed up to rip the American people off. 

Then you wouldn't look like a douche with your post.  I junk you.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 16:19 | 1276944 Raymond K Hessel
Raymond K Hessel's picture

Now that's how you fucking post!! 

 

+100000

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 12:38 | 1274325 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Ha, ha, ha, grandma's got dentures and spent your inheritance on a face lift and Julio, the cabana boy.  

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:04 | 1273121 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

these historical ratios roughly reflect geologists’ estimates that silver is 17 times more abundant than gold in the earth’s crust.

 

 

This doesn't account for the first time in history there is less above ground silver than gold.  Or that 90% of silver is used up, while gold is stored in vaults or reused.  Or the fact that there is 100 or 1,000 times more paper than the underlying physical metal.

 

The real ratio should be closer to 5-1, or parity for fucks sake.

 

Keep manipulating it down shitheads, I will keep hoarding.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:07 | 1273126 XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

On a lark I changed the current silver spot to $500 in my excel book.

 

Sploosh.

 

If only...

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 14:14 | 1274447 Abitdodgie
Abitdodgie's picture

Government accounting ideas I love it , don't forget to put any credit card debt down as an asset. If they want you to pay it back because it is maxed out , tell them to up the limit so you can pay them back ,after all it works for America

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:20 | 1274775 Stormdancer
Stormdancer's picture

You were at least a hundred dollars low.  Maybe three :)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:07 | 1273128 cossack55
cossack55's picture

roger that. You beat me by 1 minute. Its ok, same msg.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:45 | 1273210 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

http://www.halfhill.com/inflation.html

 

shadow stats 1979 $50 ='s $538.82

 

for my vodka drinking friend!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:51 | 1273220 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

$538.82...

 

I'll drink to that!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:53 | 1273339 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

What demand would make silver rise so high? It's use as a currency in a world without a good one overwhemling all other considerations making its worth directly related to an unstable availability above ground. If it is that close to gold, gold is superior since it is more stable and the advantage silver has of being used for day to day money instead of savings deposits goes away so I'd guess gold would win out.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:12 | 1273489 Jalaluddin
Jalaluddin's picture

What would make fiat fall so low?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:30 | 1273627 Clay Hill
Clay Hill's picture

1)  common sense

2)  open eyes / ears

3)  three simultaneously firing neural receptors

4)  all of the above

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 00:59 | 1273809 Chappaquiddick
Chappaquiddick's picture

Bravo Hugh - they can junk posts like this but you can't hide the facts.

Just as an aside to the above article, I think that the GSR is a very good tool for gold and silver investors.  I have a target ratio above which I buy silver and convert gold to silver and below which I buy silver and convert gold to silver.  In short my strategy is to buy silver and convert gold (in fact all my assets) to silver - which has worked very, very well to date.

The GSR will hit parity in this decade at which point I will convert some of my silver to gold (just for the novelty).

Best wishes, Chappy

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 02:22 | 1273856 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Thanks Chappy.

It never bothers me when people touch my junk.

The bankster trolls can try to trash common sense, but they wont close my eyes to the fundamentals. Im going balls deep on Ag and using 0 leverage. Margins be dammed. Everytime they shake the tree and put it on sale, I convert more paper into silver and bury it. Fuck the banksters and the morgue. We'll come out on top.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 05:49 | 1273932 cossack55
cossack55's picture

We need a term to use for we "buriers". Very common in Europe for centuries.

Deep Silverbug

I'm 6' in silver

Have shovel, will bury

Deep investors

They all suck

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 08:21 | 1274015 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

And your proposed term is?

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 08:50 | 1274030 BrerRabbit
BrerRabbit's picture

ag gnostic

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 11:52 | 1274268 s2man
s2man's picture

I don't usually post.  But someone needs to say, good one, Brer

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:55 | 1274829 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

Brilliant!

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 07:04 | 1273965 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Don't forget the dow to gold ratio.  It hit 1/1 in 1980 or 81.  

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 08:47 | 1275846 ursus.peracto
ursus.peracto's picture

They keep shuffling DOW components so it shouldn't be used as a benchmark.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 13:56 | 1279903 Weisbrot
Weisbrot's picture

so many disasters man made & others

so much turmoil all over the globe

conspiracy or happenstance it almost doesnt matter

I am convinced that the powers that be, believe something much worse will happen

various theories and reasons abound, based on strings or piles of truth

things will never be what they were

may what ever it is or the series of events that lead to it

be quick, be concise, and have the best possible outcome for the worse of all possible situations

 

until then enjoy all the side shows

and remember that everything is temporary

 

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:50 | 1273099 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

"It is difficult to judge when the turmoil might start"

after obama is out of office - might coincide with another terrorist attack ala clinton-bush cycle.

obama is doing little to develop new intel

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:01 | 1273114 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Actually a lot of intel is being developed, and it all points to the US gubment as the largest terrorist organization on the planet.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:36 | 1273313 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

agreed cossack, spot on.  the terrorists have been identified.  turn off the tee vee america, "we have a duty to ourselves and each other to hang these crooks for fraud and treason."

Git 'er dun!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:37 | 1273634 Creed
Creed's picture

This may come as a shock to you conspiracy buffs, but there really are evil people out there and they do want to make hamburger out of your little brother, little sister, mother or wife.

No, it's not a recent development & Americans don't deserve to be blown to bits because of our support for Israel.

Real men & women fight them every day, and some of those people work for the CIA or NSA.

Pussies sit around speaking the vernacular of the progressive movement, i.e., AMERIKA = BAD.

It sure is easy to fingerpoint while real men do the heavy lifting.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 00:33 | 1273780 snowball777
snowball777's picture

We (and the Brits) have a long history of backing whomever we can bribe or install (after a velvety revolution, of course) and have supported some very nasty shitbags in the pursuit of the protection of "our" (corporate) interests.

Am I to afford the people doing contract wetwork for Xe/BlackWater with the same measure of respect?

Do I think America can really afford all that "heavy lifting"?

You don't have to be unpatriotic to be suspect of the military industrial complex and "cost centers" run amok...or missing palettes of cash, for that matter. Maybe I want to be so introspective as to put Cheney's portfolio at risk; my country can take it.

 

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 09:43 | 1274094 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Spot on snowball.

in fact, the US and it's current citizens need to look no farther back than a well-documented and well-hidden history of genocide against the Native Americans.

Even to this day. The BIA (Indian Affairs) has a long and deep history of corruption, broken promises, reneged deals...

And of course the slaughter. Human, Bison, Deer.... now cows, pigs and Chickens by the billions....

The US reeks of death. If people paid attention even now, things could change. Visit a reservation...not the Casino in it.

Eye Popping...

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/02/16/truth-about-america-truth-about-us/

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 11:30 | 1276115 trav7777
trav7777's picture

keep bringing up 100 year old shit.  Let's look into India's history and see what we find there

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 01:33 | 1273831 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

What has that got to do with our country falling apart? Propaganda does not need to be false to be effective as long as it confuses the issues. You don't need to invoke the terrorist boogeyman to inspire truly disgusting human behavior. Try your local criminal courthouse where you can bathe in child rape and other lovely gestures or better yet try your local legislative house where you can witness your children and their future being raped in ways you never thought imaginable. And the last time I checked corruption, by definition is a "conspiracy." So call me a pussy and a progressive for calling out my government and fighting for my children. I'll let you get back to your weights.                                       

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:37 | 1274151 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

A good place to start "fighting for my children" would be the local schools. While whine whine whining regarding they "must have more money", the school system/teachers are drug dealers of stupidity, clicking along to retirement where they escape into teacher nirvana of retirement after twenty years of causing irreversible harm to society and your children. Why? Because your too stupid to demand a showing of accomplishment for what you've already been trammeled, hijacked, and fleeced for, your property taxes. Now let us take a hypothetical example...Seattle school district, for example (but yours will be very similar).. the budget is around 550 million for 44,000 students which comes out to 12,500 (rounding) per student. The "average" class size is 26 and if we apply correct calculations we find that, voila! this works out to $325,000 paid Per Teacher for a class of 26 students. Now at $325,000 doesn't a brilliantly educated student seem reasonable to expect? Rather than our current de facto fifty percent drop out rate...they disguise this with "move aways"...combined with a 25% idiocracy (complete numnuts!) brain-dead students being graduated; students who have been passed along by teacher after teacher even though they know the child/ren can't read, write, or do rithmetic. Further, of the money in a school district's budget, the average is that 13% is spent on "bilingual" education (Are you insane? Educating foreigners rather than your own? Since when did this country become feeding trough for foreigners) and 12% is spent on "disabled". Sure everyone wants to take care of the truly "disabled" student but given that most of the "disabled" students are "disabled" by virtue of being born to parents who are welfarians for life, who don't marry in order to access the giant welfare complex, meaning that at birth they are plopped in front of the television where they share (without a vote) their parents love of the Saw movies, Jackass (Jackass is to the Idiocracy...see the movie Idiocracy if that reference is unfamiliar...as Tolstoy is to the intelligensia) and the 300-word vocabulary of the welfarians, of which four-letter words comprise 299 words of the 300 words. (Ever been in Walmart? Listen to the language these people use with their children? Absolutely astounding in the level of vulgarity. Should be cause for child abuse charges)....surely if you are receiving taxpayer money, taxpayers have the right not to subsidize the continued reproduction of further guttersnipes via demanded birth control? How many "children"...using the phrase loosely for the genetic reproduction of human facsimilies; "human" arising only from the proper socialization of the genetic mass/fusing of egg and sperm by loving, caring, devoted parents. The point here is that this means that the reality is that only 75% of a school "budget" is actually spent on your child. And that 75% is irrelevant. Your children are being assaulted by an educational system that sees them as the conduit of money to the teachers' unions and their benefits. Your children are in an environment when in school that is completely hostile to them (Read a study several years ago that found children absolutely feel that the schools are a hostile environment.)While Oprah and others continues to celebrate teachers, based on the frighteningly rare competent teacher, and her own self-annunciation to Saint Oprah "who knows all", most students are simply cogs in the wheel, no one cares about them, and those vaunted endless tests they are administering, only serve to prove that the teacher stands in the classroom routely reciting without regard for whether, on a daily basis, the child has actually Learned the lesson. One of my friends home schools and we speak at length regarding the constant immediate feedback that home schooling provides, the feedback necessary as with each (call it: block) block of learning that is not absorbed, the next block becomes less absorbed, or even not at all. This is the greatest scandal in history; the abuse of our children through the scholastic system. They know they are being cheated out of their education, but the system has made them too dumb to be able to explain it to you. God help us all for what is being done to them. Oh, but they do know all variations of sex (GLT) and can get their hands on any drug at any time. Sorry this is long...it is a holocaust for our children.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 11:39 | 1274243 TomJoad
TomJoad's picture

I might be inclined to take your tirade more seriously if it didn't contain over thirty grammatical and spelling errors. Perhaps you are just a product of the education system you so abhor?

Either way, I junk thee.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 12:01 | 1274277 gmrpeabody
gmrpeabody's picture

I happen to agree with your analysis..., though it could have been shorter and spell-checked.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 13:14 | 1274375 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

My cousin teaches reading to middle-school-aged children in Florida - Reading, for God sake, as in how to read.  I asked if she didn't mean English, but no, it is reading. Apparently, many 7th and 8th graders in Florida are quite illiterate and they have to go back and teach them basic phonics because those children don't understand the way vowels function, something everybody had mastered in first grade when I went to school.  I leave to your imagination how students progress to middle school without that most basic of skills.

 

She also complains that teachers can spare little time from preparing their classes to take the standardized tests, required by the federal government for the no child left behind program, to actually teach much of anything. Many things have fallen by the wayside over the years.  Did you know they no longer teach cursive writing?  They have no time. Remember, a school's federal funding is dependent on students passing those tests. When I think about how dreadfully, mind-numbingly boring that has got to be for kids I shudder.  Just think of what it must be like to sit there day after day being ground down into the lowest common denominator.  

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 20:16 | 1275049 trav7777
trav7777's picture

lemme guess...largely black district?

Half of the city of Detroit is illiterate and DC was at about 40%

Phonics are a horrid teaching tool, btw

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 22:44 | 1275384 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I remember hating phonics.  It was certainly taught in Catholic school when I was a kid.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 11:33 | 1276125 trav7777
trav7777's picture

phonics is misguided for a couple of major reasons.  The first is that English is NOT a phonetic language.  In great irony, the word "phonics" is not fonetic lol.

Secondly, phonics forces people to read, hear the word, then understand it.  That's simply not reading; it's listening.  The people who have to sound words out have inferior reading skills to those who can recognize a whole word.

Language is not composed of sounds or of letters; these are abstractions.  Language is words, whole words.  And a word is a placeholder for a thing or action, etc.

The "teach your baby to read" courses are superior study programs.  Unfortunately, lazy and stupid parents do not teach their children to read and so we get people who will never achieve at high levels.

Sun, 05/15/2011 - 12:27 | 1276302 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

I took some music courses at Houston Community College in the late 90's and a black woman HPD officer used to sit by in class. She could not figure out the beats because she did not know how anything about fractions. Now mind you, this is a woman, with a badge and a gun and the power of life and death (in some circumstances) that did not know how to figure the beats to music ........I felt sorry for her in a way, but she is the law with the badge and the gun.....The Houston Police Academy was roundly criticized for failing black applicants and the black politicians etc, felt they were being racially biased. so they started passing them, no matter what. So you have dumb black cops running around. It is for this reason, I felt sorry for my culture and my society.

then i see shit like this.......

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/87886.html

this happens far too often.......another unwarranted execution of a citizen. Oh Lord. How long must we wait? How long????

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 18:48 | 1274823 nufio
nufio's picture

i dont know if the teachers themselves are overpaid or its just the overhead. eitherway, teachers should not get tenure. there shud be merit based pay. and the admin staff : teacher ratio should be controlled.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:04 | 1274850 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

LOL. What about Bernanke and Geithner, not to mention Blankfiend and Rubin and all the other thieves running Wall Street? Hundreds of millions of dollars for what? Patently obvious lies? A good con game? At least teachers actually provide a valuable service. Merit-based pay... hahahaha. Talk about double-standards...

EDIT: sorry, meant hundreds of Billions...

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 11:39 | 1274248 TomJoad
TomJoad's picture

.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:34 | 1273636 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by cossack55
on Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:01
#1273114

 

Actually a lot of intel is being developed, and it all points to the US gubment as the largest terrorist organization on the planet.

***************************************************************

http://goo.gl/M4bcP FBI Don’t Need No Stinking Warrants! Personal / Civil Rights are a thing of the past!

"Unfortunately, the PATRIOT Act did Not! Include Checks to PROTECT! Americans” Senator R. Durbin (IL) http://goo.gl/MfmKX

Have a Political View? Share this view on Twitter or Blog? **YOU!** are a Terrorist PER Homeland Security http://goo.gl/0YRnN See Link(s) and Official Report(s).


U.S. Army Pys Ops Verse U.S. Congressmen & Senators http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/another-runaway-general-army-deploys-psy-ops-on-u-s-senators-20110223

POLICE FATALLY SHOOT UNARMED MAN - Laying Face Down and Shot in The Back http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IAHjhtYZpX0

 

the Police are Nazi's everywhere.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G63FEamhpA0 A nice Lady shot in the back and face, with rubber bullets.

Police (6 - 8 officers) Kick Child in the Face after trying to run him over with a car. http://bit.ly/fT59zI

Michigan, Police have been downloading info from cell phones during stops since 2006! http://goo.gl/qIM4I

Military Helicopter'SSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS Training on Bank of America Building Downtown Miami http://goo.gl/itJiJ


http://goo.gl/wNji8 Canada & U.S. sign Military cross border pact for times of insurrection! keep the people in check!

 

I could go on.. but why?

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 06:13 | 1273940 EnglishMajor
EnglishMajor's picture

Henry Kissinger said that he believed the morality that applies to the interactions between individuals in society did not apply to nations, because often when you are making decisions regarding macro issues, you are left with only evil from which to choose.

Evil people exist in the world. Some act of their own volition and some do not. Regardless, do you have a better answer to control the shit storm that is coming?

There's a reason FEMA fucked up Katrina relief.  Only 10% of their budget is directed toward natural disaster relief, and that may very well end up being the lesser of the evils. Time will tell.

Perhaps, the powers that be should read Frankenstein, because despite the intention behind it, the creation sometimes does become a monster and wreak unintentional havoc before turning on the creator.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 08:50 | 1274032 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

USA is still a big, underpopulated, young country; with only 234 years of independence. It is isolated and protected naturally by all the geographical features that surround it.

Compared to human development: When a child, it dreamed more, and was more idealistic, grew rapidly and almost self inflicted a fatal wound.  Now it is a youth: older and stronger and wreaks havoc, apparently fearless to the outsiders, but insecure on the inside.  Growing pains.  Likes hard sports and shiny toys.  Eventually it will find its appropriate, more proportionate role in this world. 

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:48 | 1274169 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Clearly Mec-sick-o is an apologist for further immigration: Oboma's love of the third world class with their votes, their bed bugs, their leprosy and tuberculosis...ah yes, spread diseases into the United States via the "buy a vote" immigration. We are NOT an "underpopulated, young country". The air in Denver is unbreathable often; Los Angeles always. We have water that is polluted and e coli alerts due to the use of human waste on our vegetables, something never before done in America (the use of recycled human waste on crops is a third world posture; generally human waste on crops is done because there are too many people and there is no ability to process otherwise.) We have almost doubled our population by allowing in the overflow trash of third worlders (too bad, sounds unsympathetic? Sure, but where will your children live when America falls?). And with these trash third worlders we have ruined our schools, our medical system, and our financial system as money is GIVEN to them for free via zero-interest loans, medicaid, and food stamps. Just why are so many of our businesses given to the third worlders? While our people grow fat and stupid on welfare? That is the equation of a fallen nation. Meanwhile CNBC has a terrific documentary called Trash Inc and segments of it show the massive amounts of trash that the 1.3 billion Chinese throw off; even as the Chinese ramp up their ads on television to indoctrinate us into accepting Chinese as our masters, the planned invasion of our country has begun with a beachhead. Washington State and Massachusetts have been given to the Chinese...the invasion is not far off. You thought they were your slaves turning out chotchkees for you, the Chinese are a brutal people and some of you will survive to be their slaves, this is their hope and their goal.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 11:40 | 1274250 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

"Clearly Mec-sick-o is an apologist for further immigration"

I'm sorry about your fixation on my avatar.

We live in an imperfect world, but USA has had the upperhand since the Great Wars and EuroPowers crushed each other and the other civilizations went down the drain.  USA has inequalities but still it's Disneyland compared to third world countries.

Compare USA population density, to the rest of the world.

Compare USA consumption of (fill in the blank) per capita, to the rest of the world.

Compare USA arable land in %, to the rest of the world.

Compare USA fresh water reserves to the rest of the world.

Compare USA coastline to the rest of the world.

Compare income per capita to the rest of the world.

 

Please get out of your bubble and open your eyes.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:39 | 1274951 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

Not exactly sure what you're getting at, but inequality in the US far exceeds that of many thrid world countries. According to the UN, there are 62 countries that have less inequality than the US, and many of these countries are clearly third-world. Check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality and sort by UN GINI.

As far as I can tell, the only advantage the US has is weapons and the will to use them against anyone who stands in the way of exploiting resources of other countries. We are tied with Ghana and Turkmenistan for inequality. Oh yea, that's something to brag about.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 20:20 | 1275060 trav7777
trav7777's picture

wtf do you expect when 25% of our population is of third world stock?

You people expect to transplant blacks from Africa and hispanics from Guatemala and have them magically become different??

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 03:58 | 1278365 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

OK Trav... I'm starting to get it. You're just another racist DB. Probably a skinhead racist as well.

Anyone who uses the phrase "third world stock" obviously sees themselves as better than everyone else, but the reality is that everyone has something to give. I feel sorry for you that you're so hateful, and so unable to see what other people can teach us, regardless of their skin color.

Mon, 05/16/2011 - 04:04 | 1278368 akak
akak's picture

Don't sweat it too much, GG --- Trav is an equal-opportunity hater, and from all that I have read from him, pretty much despises everyone and everything, probably including himself.  It's really rather sad and pathetic.

Sat, 05/21/2011 - 03:42 | 1297788 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

Thanks akak. I just find his xenophobia and racism a bit much.

Everyone has some fear of the unknown, but it's people like him who have taken these kind of xenophobic attitudes to a whole new level of scapegoating. I am very grateful that I have known all sorts of people of different races and classes, and all of them have taught me something.  It is a poor person indeed who can learn nothing from the experience of another.

Sat, 05/21/2011 - 10:05 | 1298023 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

It is like trying to stop the killer bees reaching USA by passing tighter immigration rules.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 12:54 | 1274346 DosZap
DosZap's picture

There's a reason FEMA fucked up Katrina relief.  

 

In reality, (while I am no fan of any .gov agency), the real FU's here, were the state of Louisiana.

Starting with the Governor, then the mayor(Nagin), and the legislature.

The responsibilities for sates during disasters are FIRST and foremost their OWN responsibility.

Not only did they not prepare, they did not follow pleas from the President, or anyone else to Evac their peoples.

Instead, they ignored them, and allowed the state, and it's peoples to become victims.

All three top officials, the Gov, Mayor, and Chief of Police should have been brought up on Civil charges.

For dereliction of duty, and for ordering Unconstitutional seizure of lawful weapons.

 

Not one, twice but at least three times GW Jr, called the Gov,and warned her to get their people out.

He was totally ignored, and the consequences were paid for by the poor, and indigent.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:13 | 1273272 alexanderstollznow
alexanderstollznow's picture

you might not have heard, but Obama actually got Bin Laden.  that was probably 'new intel'.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:25 | 1273296 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Obama got Bin Laden?

 

right.....

 

You mean the CIA asset codename Tim Osman outlived his usefulness, died of kidney failure in 2002, and waited to be rolled out when it would be the most advantagous for foreign/fiscal policy?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:45 | 1273326 FIAT_FixItAgainTony
FIAT_FixItAgainTony's picture

ah ah now, lets not bring any controversy, it's wave the flag time where the sheeple praise the victories of their oppressors.

somewhere in the file it must have read:

unthaw when needed as great diversion, allow no photos, recycle in a few years.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 20:34 | 1273421 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

ya, no photos and dump the body in the ocean right away....

 

Hey we're the government, you can take our word for it. Right?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:39 | 1273638 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by alexanderstollznow
on Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:13
#1273272

 

you might not have heard, but Obama actually got Bin Laden.  that was probably 'new intel'.

****************************************************************

It looks like Obama traded China a Helicopter for the info.. So, Yes new.. but at what cost? I am sure China got a hum dinger of a deal!

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:54 | 1274175 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Ah. Interesting thought. As to Oboma's son complaining about his father, one might refer back to the movie The Usual Suspects and the Kaiser Soze method, as in one does not just cut off the head....one creates a swath of fear wide and deep. America feels we have to apologize for keeping our own safe; how bout instead a fierce jingoistic decimation, a statement to the world: A hair touched on the head of an America, brings remedy...swift, fierce, and deep. Call me an "imperialist" and I say thank you. Someone has to be in charge and it had better be us if you want this country to survive. If it's not us: we are subjects to another country; your children slaves, if they are allowed to live.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 13:24 | 1274391 A Nanny Moose
A Nanny Moose's picture

Mmm. The rotten stench of Nationalism. You are already a slave. You are surrounded by bright shiny things as a distrations. You are given a vote, to present you with the illusion of choice.

CCCA, CCCA, CCCA!!!

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:50 | 1274984 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

OK... calling Looney Tunes here.

Who is this "us" you're referring to? I don't need anyone to be "in charge" to feel secure, in fact I would feel much more secure if this government didn't go around killing people without a trial, without a shred of evidence of guilt, torturing people needlessly. Killing them by remote control. 

You are delusional if you think that might makes right. Good ideas can defend themselves. It's bad ideas that need weapons to defend them.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 12:58 | 1274353 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Free at that..................

Those damn Chinneee, they will copy the bitch, and all that R&D money, and yrs of research we just donate.

We are SO intelligent.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 20:22 | 1275069 trav7777
trav7777's picture

not likely...copying things more complex than a Louis Vuitton bag seems to be beyond their abilities.

They are about CHEAP knockoffs, not faithful imitations.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:56 | 1273107 Crisismode
Crisismode's picture

When gold hits $1700/ tr. oz., silver will hit $100/ tr. oz.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 23:21 | 1273696 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

 .>> When gold hits $1700/ tr. oz., silver will hit $100/ tr. oz.

 

Ok, so when gold goes up 15%, silver will go up 300%?  What do you base this assertion on?

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 13:30 | 1274399 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

when silver hits 100 it the price will be 285% of 35 but the return will be 185% (285% minus 100% for cost basis)

the way the gold silver ratio was heading it would seem the 100 price target would coincide with a gsr of 25 or 20 and put gold at 2500 or 2000

i think he was trying to assume a 17:1 ratio and figured 100 silver would be 1700 gold but when the 17:1 ratio gets hit, it's more likely gold is like 5100 and silver 300.  the various price levels possible at each gsr can be confusing

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:57 | 1273109 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Everything stays the same except entropy. Ignore the inflation, rioting and revolution. That has nothing to do with it except reality. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:59 | 1273115 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I love entropy. Embrace entropy. Entropy is the wild card in the game of systems.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:14 | 1273149 Sokhmate
Sokhmate's picture

I personally long for negentropy.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 19:52 | 1274996 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

+1 for the negentropy reference.

Me too. But there seems to be no intelligent life left in the universe these days :-)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:26 | 1273297 Clycntct
Clycntct's picture

I was thinking Entropy  was the constant.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 04:53 | 1273910 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Change (randomness) you can believe in.

All heat and no light.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:57 | 1273111 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

What I want to know is where are these places that people keep talking about where I can dig silver out of the ground for $5? Are these like the Mystery Spot places?

Heck, for $5, I'll even bring my own shovel!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:50 | 1273216 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I think that the $5 dollars they are using for thier numbers is from like 1920 something.. so inflation adjusted dollars it really is like $1,000?

 

but our tax dollars (subsidies) help keep the price low.. I am sure the silver lobby gets thier fair share of the Government Tax Dollar hand out just like everyone else!

 

But for the $5 bucks.. or I have asked and looked.. but I can not find this huge surplus of silver anywhere?

I am willing to buy shot.. for $6 bucks? and take a couple, few tonnes off thier hands to help them out.. with all the surplus silver that sitting that can not be turned into coins?

Like i said! i cant find this magic, invisable surplus!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:46 | 1273336 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

It's around here somewhere, I'm sure. Have you ever noticed that you always find things in the last place that you look for them?

Dealers are flush full with silver, I'm told. If you don't mind waiting 4-6 weeks. Never mind that backwardation thingy.

Caught a stink bid on PSLV today. I couldn't believe it. I almost never catch the bottom. Should've put one in on Thursday. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:40 | 1273316 Poule Mouillee
Poule Mouillee's picture

Silvercorp can dig it up for less than zero...

"the company produced silver at a cash cost of negative $7.61 per ounce"

It's all in how you spin the numbers...

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:26 | 1273507 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

So there goes the paper bugs arguement. Silver pays you to dig it out of the ground.

It pays a dividend. Hahaha.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 13:06 | 1274359 DosZap
DosZap's picture

SLW get's it for under $5.00.................

Hedged purchases, and LONG term agreements with dumb miners.

After all, it is just a By product.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:29 | 1273517 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Silver is found along with a primary element being mined such as copper or zinc. According to some sources it only costs $5 to collect and sort it from the primary element. It comes up in such small quantities as compared to the primary element it's almost worthless to the mining company. This is one of the main reasons the mine owners hedge the price for future delivery not caring what the market price is. As long as they can make a profit separating it from the primary element they are happy to make it available. Thus you have the explanation for the $5 price of Silver. Now we have China buying up all the mining Silver hedges they can and are beginning to take direct physical delivery bypassing the Comex. this is the reason Comex inventories are rapidly falling. Their sources of physical Silver are drying up. Soon China will be buying Silver directly from the miners at far more then $5.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 01:22 | 1273818 Eternal Student
Eternal Student's picture

Thanks, LJS. In case it wasn't apparent, I was making a joke.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 00:17 | 1273765 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

This is probably what you mean:

As low as $5.29 per coin over spot!

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 10:59 | 1274178 kumquatsunite
kumquatsunite's picture

Try Mexico and Peru. Or the floorboards beneath any Chinese villagers hut! 

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 15:22 | 1274522 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

I thought they hid it beneath the muck in the pigpen or at the bottom of the beehive.  Peasants have a lot of experience with this sort of thing.  Under the floorboards is the first place the warlord looks when they come to shake you down.    

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:02 | 1273117 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

Sorry Casey. Your ratios are a bit high and I ain't buyin the rest of it. Better stick to stocks or something that your good at.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:06 | 1273124 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I like Doug Casey's take on many things, I think he needs to go Trump and fire this dummy.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:11 | 1273137 cowdiddly
cowdiddly's picture

I like Casey Research alot to. Funny thing is I never ever remembered them being metal people until lately. At the end he reminds you that we do this every day. OTAY

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 23:29 | 1273710 papaclop
papaclop's picture

Casey's the best.  He's been calling gold for years, he's made me money.  Doesn't follow the crowd, but he does lead it.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:05 | 1273122 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Did I miss the point in the article where silver is used up at a rate of about 650 million oz.s a year, never to be recovered, yet sold sits in vaults never to be used.  Does it not mean that if there is 17 times more silver than gold in the geosphere, that when silver is all used up and no longer exists on the planet, how can silver still be at 17 to 1? What am I missing?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:44 | 1273205 Vagabond
Vagabond's picture

The silver does not disappear.  It is used and taken off the market, "never to be recovered".  Nobody is going into their old tv to take out the silver solder, it's getting thrown in a pile of trash somewhere when it's no longer used.  That does not mean it has vanished from the earth however.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:36 | 1273533 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

If Silver ends up in a landfill and it costs more then $5 to dig it out of that landfill,  than it might as well have disappeared.

On another note Silver is used in other applications than just solder. Switches, battery contacts, and within electronic chips to name but a few.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 09:01 | 1274038 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

The same as mining, the copper in the PCB will be the primary metal, but silver (solder) will be a secondary metal obtained.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:07 | 1273127 watt
watt's picture

TSX-V trades inversely to GSR because of the propensity of traders to go long silver and short gold miners and vice versa.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:09 | 1273131 Creed
Creed's picture

by Crisismode
on Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:56
#1273107

When gold hits $1700/ tr. oz., silver will hit $100/ tr. oz.

Based on what, your crystal ball? Gold is at $1500 now, so why isn't silver at $150??

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:23 | 1273170 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

dude...check your math

AHHHH! being info raped by AUTO play ads.

"Don't just vacuum clean, RESOLVE clean" - Fuck

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 17:19 | 1273646 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I like your style.. and the name.. I will bring the silverware and we can split him after he is hung for Treason! I wonder if we "EAT!" the evil mans heart if we will get some kind of strange power.. like to be able to fuck over a planet? 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:42 | 1273648 Creed
Creed's picture

yes Ben, I tried an edit immediately after posting but couldn't

you get the idea

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:10 | 1273133 silberblick
silberblick's picture

 

BLOGSPOT.COM IS UP AGAIN.
Click below to read why silver market manipulation will not end soon:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/market-manipulation-not-t...

Click on the next link to watch a hilarious animation telling you why you should buy physical silver:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-...

Finally, click on this last link to read why the CFTC is doing nothing about market manipulation:

http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/04/reason-why-cftc-is-doing-...

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:14 | 1273154 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Quit posting this over and over again douche.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:57 | 1273240 ffart
ffart's picture

Will government trolling software make blog posts too?

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:07 | 1273134 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

"You have been warned."  TD

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:50 | 1273224 akak
akak's picture

But he did not explore the equally serious ramifications of the troll:silver ratio, which lately is at an all-time high.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:20 | 1273283 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Parabolic. Time for a margin hike?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:00 | 1273463 buck4free
buck4free's picture

But he did not explore the equally serious ramifications of the troll:silver ratio, which lately is at an all-time high.

 

lol: $troll:$silver= >50/oz.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:48 | 1273559 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Am I the only one that noticed that wirtshaftswunder has disappeared?

Normally, those guys would be all over this thread.

My guess is they gave up, since they were being found out so damn fast, and their propaganda wasn't taking anyways.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 22:46 | 1273651 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

enjoy the silence my friend.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 03:05 | 1273875 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Not working during weekend.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 04:24 | 1273903 i-dog
i-dog's picture

The story was posted too late. They are only paid to troll 9-5, Mon-Fri.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 07:10 | 1273967 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

Whatever happened to Harrywanger ? He was one entertaining troll. 

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 09:02 | 1274040 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

LOL, new jobs just opened: position: junior troll, second shift.  Minimum wage guaranteed.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:11 | 1273147 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Naive question.... when you have two goods that almost always trade exactly inverse to each other, couldn't you then invest in both.... one goes down, the other goes up... and this way get rocksolid stability?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:51 | 1273219 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Sure.....the thing is......

Gold and silver do not trade inversely.

Study some charts.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:07 | 1273261 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

It's called hedging, and you aren't doing it already, you should start immediately.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:21 | 1273289 Keri at Bankste...
Keri at Bankster Report's picture

No, because the ratio is a measure of one price relative to another price with no external metric.  For example, knowing that the GSR is 15 only tells you that 15 units of silver buys one unit of gold; it does not tell you what the value of either is, though, in any other way.  The ratio could also stay the exact same as the price/value of both skyrockets or plummets, as long as they do so in sync.  You need to look at the purchasing power of each and whether it is increasing or decreasing.

One play that you can use with the GSR is to trade silver for gold or gold for silver when you think the ratio is too high or low.  It would have been a good move a couple of weeks ago to trade 32.14 units of $49/oz silver for one unit of $1575/oz gold at that very low 32.14 ratio, because you could have this week traded back that one unit of gold for 42.6 units of silver (for 32.5% more silver), because the ratio has risen.  It would have been a better play, however, to sell the silver for cash and repurchase the silver with cash, as then you could have gotten 45 units of silver (40% more).  (All that in a theorectical tax-free world, of course.)

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:26 | 1273299 Rynak
Rynak's picture

I think some people misunderstood my post. My question has no relation to the article... i'm not specifically talking about gold or silver - the article just gave me the idea, so i asked.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:12 | 1273482 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

The "almost" part of the inverse correlation eliminates the "rock-solid" result desired.

The principle is sound, but there's no "perfect" inverse pair, so there's no simple hack.

Information-theory suggests you theoretically maintain the best long-term value from always maintaining a half-cash/half-"investment" ratio. It doesn't matter what the "investment" is in.  So say $5000 Au and $5000 cash.  At the end of the day, if Au went up, you sell half of your gain in dollars and keep that in cash, so if you were up $50, you liquidate $25 in gold at the end of the day to get to $5025/$5025.  If your Au is down $50, buy another $25 worth, bringing totals to $4975/$4975.

Problem is you get killed on transaction costs.  It's simple enough, though.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 21:34 | 1273523 Rynak
Rynak's picture

Transaction costs are a bitch. And moreover, thanks to highspeed trading, one cannot react to ridiculous jumps.

For now, i'm purely investing longterm on the usual bet of inflation, but i really would like to exploit the manipulations better..... yet, because of transaction costs and speed-issues, this isn't efficient in most cases to me.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 06:12 | 1273939 css1971
css1971's picture

That assumes inflation and deflation are equally likey. Not the case.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 11:34 | 1274241 blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

No, it doesn't assume anything other than the idea that you can't predict where the investment price is going.  You might not be understanding the point.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:16 | 1273152 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The article also implies that buying BOTH gold and silver is safer.  Diversification!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:16 | 1273159 Rynak
Rynak's picture

In this environment, diversification and metal-swaps are safer alone already because it turns the manipulation game into a game of whack-hundred-thousand-moles.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:25 | 1273172 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

Bought my first oz of gold last week (two 1/2 Krugerands) in the spirit of diversification. You are getting through to some of us. Thanks.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:38 | 1273199 Muir
Muir's picture

They don't make it anymore, buy now or be priced out forever!

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:13 | 1273275 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

I've plenty of FRNs, a little silver, a productive business and now one measly oz of Au. Hardly worth heckling me for my rabid goldbuggery.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:38 | 1273298 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

you've not been heckled, friend.  Muir likes to bounce here and there keeping peeps abreast her advice..

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 06:09 | 1273935 css1971
css1971's picture

I assumed it was a he. Haven't done a lexical analysis on it's posts though.

Sat, 05/14/2011 - 09:36 | 1274085 Mec-sick-o
Mec-sick-o's picture

Good luck with the lexical analysis.  It will be similar to the technical analysis: when you think you have seen the light, the train will hit you.

Where I live, now the gals are more liberal in their expressions than guys.

I used to serenade girls when they were still girly and romantic.  Now, they are far from that.

Haven't met anyone serenading anymore.  Too sad hearts are turning into stone.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 19:32 | 1273305 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

++  Sound advice, Bearing!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 18:27 | 1273177 Muir
Muir's picture

Well there are still some skeptics, naysayers, told-you-so guru wannabes who second guess everything and love to Monday morning quarterback a perfect game.

And then there's been just a tad too many snide comments on PMs.

Well, let me just say this.

You will be punished, severely.

In all of Gods great History, deflation has never been in his good graces.

To the blasphemers, the hereticics, the apostates that now turn their back on the precious: surely, yours will be the most horrendous of retributions.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!