This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: Gold Stocks, SP500 & the Dollar – What’s Next?
Submitted by Chris Vermeulen of The Gold and Oil Guy
Gold Stocks, SP500 & the Dollar – What’s Next? (pdf)
»
- 9678 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
THIS is a VERY BAD signal if Benny B. launches QE2
If the markets go up to on monday, the dollar will devalue easely to 1.42 vs € again.
Currency wars anyone?
In many ways, this type of article makes me very happy I am a "buy and hold" kind of guy. And I only buy physical Gold and Silver.
I don't trade daily. I don't have to watch 100 indices or anything: I have money, I buy physical Gold. If I don't have enough to buy Gold, I buy Silver. So far, that simple "tactical allocation" has been enough to get me a cool 20+% return over the last 24 months. Nice & easy.
Achetez vouz l'or, putains!
Regards de Polynesie Francaise!
Pourquoi passez vous le temp ici ---- n'est pas vous en Tahiti?
Que? No hablo frances
Perdoneme, mi amigo --- simplemente, le pregunte a DoChen por que el era pasando tiempo aqui en este forum, mientras el esta en el paradiso de Tahiti.
Gracias, muy amable
Gaugin was a stockbroker in France before he escaped to Tahiti.
DCRB:
achetons, les citoyens....
regards de la place plus chaud en aux etats unis
Obamacare 2010....."Starting Jan. 1, 2012, Form 1099s will become a means of reporting to the Internal Revenue Service the purchases of all goods and services by small businesses and self-employed people that exceed $600 during a calendar year. Precious metals such as coins and bullion fall into this category and coin dealers have been among those most rankled by the change."
FDR circa 1933
http://i173.photobucket.com/albums/w44/markomalley/FR_images/roosevelt_g...
Thats why I own several metal detectors...
speaking as a human small contractor , more forms arent my cup of tea. Lots of small guys like me will feel same way. Another nail in the coffin of small business
They could not kill our economy more effectively if they were trying!
Oh, or are they in fact bringing us down on purpose so a world currency can be brought in? Middle class is a skeleton of its former self and feels powerless/ is powerless to do a damn thing about it.
Hopefully they are struggling against one another now, since we are vanquished and of no importance.
Long on change, thankfully life is not boring and the minutes count for more as the years pass by. Bring your best self to the moment and fill the athmosphere with the goodwill of your heart and mind into the very air you breathe and the moment in which you are creating now.
amazing image from '33. nice paulida.
Will be repealed in A Pledge to America under Repeal Job-killing Small Business Mandates. Page 16.
http://pledge.gop.gov/resources/library/documents/solutions/a-pledge-to-...
~Misstrial
gold, silver, copper etc... all look like retracing in the short term.
Buying opportunity imo, but the charts look extended and toppy just now.
Huggy
Throw your charts in the garbageThey are useless in a hoarding stampede !
Gold going ballistic in the first 5 minutes of trading already.
I guess you are a five minute trader? :-)
Always gotta respect the chart!
Buy gold now or you will be priced out.
What about 1/2 ounce, or 1/4, or 1/10? Seems to me that you can always buy gold, but if you dont have much $ then perhaps not whole ounces any more.
Strangely, if the price of gold crashes (under $1000 is my guess) then you may not be able to buy physical gold at all. You will be "priced out" by a low price as supply of physical fails. FOFOA explores this idea well, and is worth the read. What will be the price of gold then? Well, paper gold effectively goes to $0. Physical gold? A new pricing mechanism will need to be created or recognised as authorative, and for a time it may not have a stable price (eBay?). The pressure to seperate the price of paper and physical gold mounts each day -- when it splits it may be fast and dramatic.
On the other hand, I think your comment might be sarcastic. Not sure, hard to tell the tone in written form.
Dollar crashes within 4 to 5 weeks. Nobody accepts them.
I have been saying for a long time that we could limp along until late /early summer of next year before the wheels come off..But the more I look around and absorb, I have to agree with the 4 to 5 weeks..It really looks like it's almost here boys and girls..
They are planning and plotting and scheming and dreaming. Tax revenues are down month after month after month in every city and every state and every country.
10/10/10 will hit and they will figure out they are no longer the planning and plotting and scheming and dreaming authorities. But it won't crash for while. Takes a while to give up. They haven't been depressed in a long long time. Will take them a while to figure out what it is.
+1 g au
.
Oct 8 sees the release of "Inside Job", a documentary on the Financial meltdown. If those that see said movie don't whip out their pitchforks, they're beyond help!
The pitch forks are in our hands.. the problem is getting enough people to induce critical mass so that the gathering of the pitchfork wielding people will actually manifest.
They are doing a wonderful job of keeping this from happening. However, and I can't speak for anyone else here, I'm done with the whole ordeal. It will take a giant, fucking, shit-storm to illicit a response enough to reach that critical mass. There are too few us grounded in reality to make that happen. People are desperately trying to hold on to their "woobies". Mean-while, I going with the USMC rules for gun-fighting: Have a plan to .... you Marines out there know the rest.
When over 50% of the population either works for the gov or is receiving some form of gov assistance they are not going to get off their asses.
If the number receiving gov help drops then they might get off their asses and do something.
Problem is, there is no guarantee that what they might do will be a good thing. The Germans put Hitler in power...and, there are many other examples of democracys putting idiots in power. Look at the clowns in DC now.
The Banks put Hitler in power...and, there are many other examples of democracys putting idiots in power.
Fixed.
I'm as bearish on the dollar as anyone and I think that is a quite a bit early. There is no real trigger event right now, and other central banks have decided they are willing to destroy their currency purchasing power to prop up the dollar. This game can go on till at least summer 2011 if the other CBs are willing to play. Hell depending on global committed to destroy themselves it could go on a fair bit further then that. So far the open realization that the US will default has not phased anyone (significantly), so I can only imagine everyone thinks they can get out at the right time. So looks like we are set for a slow bleed out then stampede for the door unless something happens to really spook the big players.
That is a very reasonable throught pattern based on what is known and shown to us. Unfortuately entirely wrong. Cat's hide their cat shit.
I think the dollar will crash and lose value near term, but people will probably still accept them.
The USD is still used as the world's reserve currency to settle international trade accounts and there are no other alternatives at the moment. Even if everybody agreed to change and stop taking the dollar, they couldn't do it that fast. That's the only thing that has kept it up this long.
The Chinese seem to be working on alternatives, but they are 2-3 years away at best.
Robo, those charts update on here, right?
Either that, or I need more beers.
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=m5
Thank you for that rear-view mirror view.
Can you tell us what you see through your windshield instead?
use your imagination akak....
AAPL is leading the charge...... it closed below the 10 day EMA and the MACD is flashing a most excellent sell signal. I think I'm going to go short.
Price of gold on Sep. 10th, 2001, the day before Osama bin Subcontractor attacked us because he hates our Freedom Fries: $271.50. Current price of gold: $1,320 - up 386%.
S&P 500 on Sep. 10th, 2001: 1,093. Current S&P 500: 1,146 - up 5%
(by current I mean Friday Oct. 1, 2010)
This does not take into account the dividends that one would have gotten from owning the stocks but I doubt that it would make much difference.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have been at war with the horrible terrible Islamo-fascists for almost nine years. Show me one war in all history that had deflation, just one. Show me one war that had a fall in the price of commodities. Show me one war where the desire for precious metals went south.
I'm curious, what what happen if the US would go on the gold standard but would exchange the gold for the dollars at lower rate then the spot price in London at the moment of exchange. Ex. A country wants to exchange 100 million dollars for gold and the spot price is 1350 an oz. The country should receive roughly 75,00 oz. of gold. The UST confirms trade but in the exchange deliver a reduced amount of gold let's say 70,000 oz. In other words, redeem the dollars but at a fixed ratio with the spot price of gold. I'm assuming that we actually have gold in Fort Knox.
"I'm assuming that we actually have gold in Fort Knox."
you assume too much.
I will bet you the farm that there are gold bars in Kentucky, The % of Real Gold in each bar is up for debate....
I think the gold price would rise to compensate for the reduced rate.
The dollar per oz could be set at any number, and that would revalue the dollar to a standard and depending on $ per oz might be a devalue. Example $2000 = 1oz, so the dollar is devalued and has backing. If it's a real standard then it's fully backed and can be called by dollar holders, and the new floor/ceiling of gold should be $2000ish. The problem is with the massive spending odds are the creditors would want gold and then they would have to pull a Nixon again.
Bad money ALWAYS drives good money into hidey holes.
If by "we" you mean the US government (a collective in which I would in no uncertain terms NEVER include myself), you may be assuming too much even in that more general case.
whilst on paper at least it looks as though gold and silver will keep on going higher i would not underestimate the EE. they have everything to lose and will do anything to stop the ascension pm's.
can you imagine what the richest and most powerful people will do in a currency collapse.
Do you really think the big boys don't have PMS? I can assure you that they have their stash and will greatly profit from any rise we see. Sure some of their front groups will be harmed, but they will get legal protection from the respective government entities. Does anyone think that JPM would be punished if they were shorting the PM market and could not cover? Most likely the govs will force the taxpayers to be the bag holders once more. I have to agree with FOFOA here, giants rule the PM market. Us little guys can run around but the real giants are the movers and shakers.
Shameful, a question for you, and for anyone else here. I have long wondered that if indeed "the elite" do know what is coming down the pike in terms of the financial and monetary systems (if not having actively caused and coordinated it), then with their immense wealth why is there ANY gold and silver still available within the markets to the average "little guy"? If in fact a financial and/or monetary collapse is inevitable and in the works, or even rather likely, then why would they not have bought up all available (physical) gold and silver by now? This question has haunted me for some time now.
There Are several reasons why they would not consume the whole supply.
1. Spook the herd: People in many was act like a herd of beasts would stampeding from one place to another. Now should they try to scoop up all gold/silver assets that would be noticed. People not connected with the big boys would also start speculating on this now rapidly disappearing commodity, and it would drive more mining operations. After all there would be a group of players with nearly infinitely deep pockets buying, and a motley crew of others trying to play the rise. Also it is easier to buy something and accumulate if it looks like a bad buy. Gold was not good form the 80s crash to Brown's Bottom, a great time to be loading up for a future calamity wouldn't you say?
2. Nature of money: Money must be obtainable. The quantity itself does not matter but if no one could get a dollar then we could not use it for commerce. Massive scarcity reduces it's usefulness as a currency. The same would be true with gold and silver, it is good if it's rare but if NONE was available then no commerce could be done in it. One would be better off holding the majority of gold and there still being enough gold in the market for everyone to value it. If there was NO gold outside of the hands of the big players the people might start using copper or iron or wheat or lean hogs as money (anything that is something desirable). The goal then would be to accrue a large hoard of the commodity of choice cheaply, but leave enough out here for it to be valued. Quite nicely by making it scare with purchases the big boys could help show the people "This has value" and enough would be there for the people to get involved on some level.
3. Out of sight out of mind: Most people worldwide are not holders of PMs for investment purposes. Look at the world in aggregate and most are not holding large parts of their net worth in gold silver, but it is recognized that it has some value but no one talks about it. I think this is partly attributed by the hatred the financial community has for it in general, and of course the media dislikes it (save for overpriced severs and scrap operations). Take an experiment next time at the market ask the counter lady what the spot price of gold is, or silver. If one is very personable ask until you find someone who knows, might take a while. Bonus points ask people if the dollar is still gold backed, some still think it is.
4. Government Powers: If one did have vast power then gold would be less essential to hold wealth. The reason being is they may purchase government power to protect them or even to allow them to prey on the citizen of the state. Here is were we have lobbing for special tax laws or special contracts or bennies. the big boys can do this, we cannot.
5. Wealth Holdings: This ties into the protection from 4, but it is possible to hold wealth in just real things. If one had power over the gov then naturally preforming land (agg or resource acquisition) would be a great way to hold wealth and generate cash flow. It is more difficult for the masses because of nationalization and appropriation, but those with power and influence can steer that, or get advanced warning and sell to a sucker...err... citizen.
6. Meet the New Boss Same as the Old Boss: Even post collapse what will we see? I happen to think the masses are not yet enlightened enough to understand the fraud of how central and fractional (fictional?) reserve banking works. So post collapse after the dust settles they can start the machine up again, and do it all over once more. Their wealth is already protected so worse case the collapse is just a hiccup to them. As an aside going into the collapse they can print money for themselves to buy any and all assets that are for sale.
So the big boys don't need gold/silver. It is in their best interest to keep the masses in paper and keep them docile. So naturally they will have PMs but to corner the market would actually disrupt their wealth extraction operations. After all if gold went to 100,000 an ounce then people might ask "What are they pieces of paper really worth?!?!"
i think they will try to railroad the collapse with the introduction of a one world digital currency.
with some type of 'false flag ' justification BS.
while i agree with FOFOA on most points i don't think he/she has considered what the transition will be like for people in a currency collapse. It will be unlike anything the world has seen especially as the dollar is the reserve currency.
yes gold might be $54,000 an ounce, but in that world gold and dollars will be way down the list of priorities. what people will need is land, tools ,community, skills etc. no amount of gold will be enough to buy what you really need. ( i am a gold devotee through and through btw). i.e. you can't buy my farm or my precious tools or my time if i need it to feed my family with bits of yellow metal.
the world as we knew it has/is changing and i would look at other things as well as tradable commoditities in this new unfolding paradigm.
I have never advocated anyone sit on a mound of PMs and not get any other form of preparations. I agree that other steps must be taken, but the nightmare will probably only be 6 months. I'm pretty sure that some alternative to the dollar will emerge at the most 6 months after it collapses fully. In other places the dollar has been used to trade in the black market, but that will not be an options. I believe those 6 months will be an unholy nightmare but I don't think civilization will end. People will find another medium of exchange, whether it be on the local, state, or national level. It will be really, really bad for a hell of a lot of people (cities will be a disaster) but this is not "The End", just another chapter in history.
Agreed, Shameful. As bad as things temporarily might be, the worldwide collapse of fiat currency will no more be the "The End of the World" than it was any number of times before in all the individual countries in which it has already happened over and over, despite all the shrill and disingenuous propaganda to the contrary by the increasingly desperate defenders and lackeys of the status-quo powers, such as Jon Nadler of Kitco, who uses this meme constantly to attack the advocates of holding gold during these troubled and dangerous times. Such people are essentially hiding the life vests from the confused and innocent passengers on a doomed and sinking ship.
It will be the end of the world for those who have not prepared. LOOK at Zimbabwe.
Gold For Bread - Zimbabwe
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ubJp6rmUYM
I expect that at least a billion people will die, mainly from the "west/developed world". We have Americans who think that factories make chicken - they have no clue where food comes from or how to grow it. They will die.
Well said.. If and or when an economic collapse occurs there will be far more important things to worry about than PM's...To many to mention in fact...A pm stash will however permit a man to continue on right where he left off proir to said collapse.. On the bounce back up the other side after the kinks are worked out of a new system..Thats when those pm's are going to make the hay..
unless they demonise pm holders. like nixon did to ' currency speculators' .
i still think the end game is a one world currency , with gold limited to 'outlaw status'. that way they will have total monetary control. and that is what they really want.
We already have a one world currency with gold limited to outlaw status. Ever try buying anything with that gold you have? Nobody will take it - you have to go exchange it at a coin shop for the one world currency so you can buy food.
Also note, we are already living in the New World Order (look at your one dollar bill "Novus Ordo Seclurom"). The collapse that is coming is going to be the end of the NWO.
i agree, this collapse/transition is actually whats needed to get them off our ass's so to speak. i know one thing . the second i can see a way of not paying for unnecessary things ie, taxes, insurances, in fact any governmental or financial service, i will . might have already taken a few steps up that road.
Ruble collapsed in '99. Look at Russia now. While it is still a country governed by thuggery, per capita income has increased over tenfold.
Well now, boiow, as a person who's family has been here in the West (South Dakota & Kansas to California) for seven generations, "back then" people used to buy land from the native Americans for, in one case, a chicken, two mules, a saddle, two gold coins, and a jug of whiskey.
So, imo, gold will hold its own as currency along with other items of consideration.
~Misstrial
Sooner or later all this uncertainty is going to turn hostile as the elites realise their game is up and the sheeple refuse to invest so they can take their regular profits.The elites have created this lack of "confidence" by getting greedier and greedier and screwing everything down to the bare bones,the politicians should now be realising that it is time to serve their country instead of getting into bed with big business.The whole system is screwed,no matter what they do confidence will further erode as those at the top do not know how to or want to improve the lot of the majority it is alien to them and they do not realise that this is the only way to save the country and ultimately themselves.Gold and Silver physical will continue to increase in value and the swings in the markets will get wilder as the elites get more out of touch and more desperate.The whole generation running things only know how to screw things,fiddle and asset strip,they know nothing of creating anything or long term decisions,for any chance of things improving they have to be removed,whether its peaceful or not remains to be soon.People have given up with Governments whether they realise it now or later they will look to themselves for survival,those at the top have forgotten the nations that gave them their empires,those lower down and future generations will never forgive them.Buy physical Gold and Silver and take control of your own destiny.
As long as my Internet connection still works, I could care less about the currency collapsing.
What about your ISP monthly bill going to $500? $5000? $50,000? $500,000? You will notice a hyperinfaltionary collapse, and a currency collapse will bring that on.
See Zimbabwe. I have a 100 TRILLION zim dollar note on my wall ($100,000,000,000,000). Does not buy you a single egg.
Of course. Another fantastic prediction of a gold crash and a dollar breakout using some bird brain TA involving drawing an arrow on a chart pointing to where you want things to go. And lest not forget that a bunch of miners who have hedged themselves into potential bankruptcy are supposed to be a leading indicator suddenly when they have never been one yet.
I dont mean to self promote but I just posted this... not being a junk prick, but want to show the big picture as I see it in gold... check out http://capitalmercenary.blogspot.com/
As for this call -- I think gold does look overbought and the dollar does look oversold. Also could it be the market is getting ahead of itself with QE2? the Dollar selloff was definitely traders anticipation of dollar weakness from QE. the schyt hasnt happened yet. So its possible there will be a correction if QE 2 doesnt meet the markets lofty expectations.....
At this point the Fed has no choices save two. Print or devalue. Which are the same thing.
Of course they will print because no politician wants a dollar devaluation announced on his watch.
Gold is not overbought. Gold is acting predictably as governments print more fiat devaluing the fiat already in use. There is no bubble in gold...gold is reflecting fear of fiat collapse and fear of excessive fiat printing. Central banks are not selling gold. People and soverigns are moving into gold because they fear fiat currencies...and gold offers protection from fiat collapse and inflation.
How can the dollar be oversold when the Fed is printing dollars faster than any other central bank in the world is printing fiat? As more Fed printing leaks into the Main Streets of the world the dollar will continue to weaken and inflation will begin. There is a possibility of a short term dollar correction but it would be an event caused by a short dollar squeeze probably, but the dollar will not strengthen long term unless the Fed raises interest rates to strengthen the dollar, as Volker did.
If the Fed raises rates enough to strengthen the dollar the US financial sector and the entire US economy implodes.
So we are right back where we began...the Fed has but two choices. Neither is going to hurt gold or help strengthen the dollar.
Snidley Whipsnae wrote, "At this point the Fed has no choices save two. Print or devalue. Which are the same thing."
So, its all manipulated perception, correct. Also agree since what does QE and rising commodity prices establish other than to make necessities already more expensive.
Nice call........may I also have a lobotomy Dr?.......on second thought, please make that 2.
Updated GOLD monthly chart:
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com