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Guest Post: Greek Debt Rollover - Who Is Getting Rolled Over?

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From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Greek Debt Rollover - Who Is Getting Rolled Over?

Over the weekend the French announced the outlines of a rollover plan to “help” Greece.  This morning the German banks seem to be on board with the plan.  According to the headlines, this should be good news for Greece.  But is it?  Working through the details as best possible shows it strengthens the positions of the banks and weakens the IMF/EU/ECB (“Troika”) and is expensive for Greece.  The consequences of the rollover plan are that:

  • The Troika has to provide more money up-front without being able to enforce austerity compliance
  • The Troika is more likely to continue to fund Greece longer than it would otherwise because of the additional up-front payment and the moral suasion the banks will use to encourage further use of public funds
  • Greek interest payments will go up, and with the GDP kicker, will be almost 2.5 times what they are currently scheduled to be and are in line with existing Greek long bond yields

The analysis clearly demonstrates that the Troika is put into more risk sooner, and with less control than it would be without the rollover.  Greece will be paying a higher coupon over the next 3 years by offering the SPV rates in line with its existing long bonds.  The banks get immediate risk relief from a combination of cashing out 20% of their short dated Greek bonds and structuring the SPV to ensure maximum recovery.  The banks have also made a proposal that ensures they will be receiving a good rate of interest in spite of the relatively low headline coupon mentioned.  It is no wonder why the banks are falling all over themselves to agree to the plan.  It sounds like they are being kind, but they are much better off with the plan by shifting near term risk to the Troika and longer term rate risk to Greece.

The Rollover Plan

The details of the plan are still being worked out, but here is my current understanding:

The plan is meant to affect debt with maturities ranging from 2011 to 2014.  From Bloomberg, under the tickers GGB and GREECE, I found a total of €270 billion.  Of that, €108 billion matures prior to 2015.  Without the rollover, Greece would have €38 billion coming due in the next year that would have to be funded by the Troika since it is apparent the capital markets will not be open to new Greek bonds in that time frame. 

For simplicity, and since the headlines are showing more countries are joining the rollover bandwagon, and insurance companies are also mentioned, I will refer to them as “Participants”.  The Participants are supposed to retain 30% of their existing exposure to bonds in this maturity range.  So far there is no indication that it has to be pro-rata, across their holdings, so I think it is safe to assume that Participants will roll their longer dated maturities and keep as much short term paper as possible, since that is most likely to be funded by current Troika commitments. 

So now let’s assume the full €108 billion subject to the rollover is in the hands of institutions that decide to participate.  There may be some bonds in reality that are not owned by Participants, but since insurance companies are joining with banks, and more countries are participating, the simplification seems reasonable.  Figuring out the breakdown of what 30% of debt will be retained is a bit tricky, but I don’t think it is wrong to assume that Participants will retain as much short dated paper as possible.  Let’s assume Participants keep €25 billion maturing within 1 year and €7.5 billion maturing during the 2nd year.  That would be the 30% that Participants retain.  So far, under this scenario the Troika will only have to redeem €25 billion in the next 12 months, an improvement from the €38 billion currently expected.

Greece will only receive 71% of the money that is rolled over.  Under the scenario laid out, the Participants would be rolling over €76 billion of debt.  Greece would pay the Participants this money so that the rating agencies and CDS contracts do not trigger (whether that is a necessary step or not, I’m not sure, but it is the mechanism the rollover would use).  The Participants would then put that €76 billion into a Special Purpose Vehicle (“SPV”).  The SPV would then use about €21.5 billion to purchase some highly rated securities to guarantee the principle.  The remaining €54 billion would be lent to Greece for 30 years.  Since it seems safe to assume Greece doesn’t have an extra €21.5 billion lying around, this difference will have to be funded by additional loans from the Troika.  The rollover, no matter what the maturity breakdown of the retained portion is, causes an immediate shortfall for Greece of €21.5 billion. 

In order for the rollover to work, the Troika needs to lend an extra €21.5 billion to Greece now.  So much for continued progress on austerity measures for Greece.  The rollover forces the hand of the Troika to provide an extra €21.5 billion immediately.  Forcing the hand of the Troika to provide money now without Greece demonstrating ongoing success in its austerity program benefits the Participants at the expense of the Troika (aka, taxpayers).   Assuming the Troika makes the loan to Greece to enable the rollover, the Troika will now be lending €46.5 billion to Greece over the next 12 months instead of the €38 billion.  A little worse, but the key to focus on is the large up -front payment now to enable the rollover to work.  It is a direct transfer of risk from Participants to the Troika and undermines the ability of the Troika to play hardball with Greece in regards to forcing a balanced budget.

In spite of the perception that extending to 30 years means the Participants are taking on more, risk, this rollover drops the risk significantly over the near term.  If Greece defaults ahead of the rollover, the €108 billion in this bucket would trade to a recovery value.  Assuming that recovery was 40%, the Participants would lose €65 billion.  If Greece defaulted the day after the rollover, the Participants would only lose €52 billion because the Troika would have paid them out.  Since it would be hard to imagine a scenario so cynical, it is safe to assume the Troika will lend money for awhile longer so that Greece doesn’t default immediately after the rollover.  But who owns the bonds that are getting repaid?  The Participants, because that is the part of their portfolio that they wouldn’t rollover!  So virtually every Euro lent by the Troika after the rollover will be used to pay back the Participants even more money.  The rollover forces the Troika to pay out €21.5 billion now, so they are less likely to turn off the spigot any time soon.  The Participants will play the ‘see how we helped out card’ and encourage the Troika to do their part, particularly so soon after the ‘sacrifice’ of making the rollover. 

If the Troika pays out for another year, under the scenario I laid out, the Participants would only have €7.5 billion of regular bonds left, and €76 billion of SPV notes.  Without the rollover, at the end of the year the Participants would have owned €70 billion of Greek bonds, so a default with 40% recovery would have cost the Participants €52 billion.  Please keep in mind, that the rollover ploy makes it more likely that the Troika continues to lend longer than it might otherwise because of the up-front payment to initiate the rollover and the “moral suasion” coming from the Participants.  With the rollover executed, Participants would lose €4.5 billion on the remaining bonds they hold.  Although the SPV has a notional of €76 billion, Greece received only €54 billion.  In theory the Participants should only receive 40% recovery on that amount, but since the Participants structured the SPV let’s assume they structured it in such a way that in event of a Greek default, their claim is for the full notional.  They would then recover €30 billion from the SPV note, for a loss of €24 billion, giving the Participants a total loss of only €28.5 billion.  So after a year, Participants would only lose €28.5 billion on a default with 40% recovery, compared to a loss of €52 billion without the rollover.  That doesn’t seem like a risk increasing trade.  My analysis does ignore interest payments collected over the year, which would have been marginally more in the non rollover world, but nowhere near enough to offset the savings in event of default.

It is true that by the end of 2014, the Participants would have more exposure to Greece than they would have had if they did not rollover.  But, in this market, the dramatic reduction in near term exposure seems well worth that trade off, and interest on the SPV notes also helps to reduce the residual exposure at the end of 2014.

Speaking of interest, from a Bloomberg story, a coupon of 5.5% was mentioned on the SPV Notes.  I haven’t seen any other specific numbers, though something just over 5% seems to be the rumor.  Since I’m working under the assumption that the rollover is designed to be good for the Participants, let’s look at this coupon more closely.  The headline of 5.5% for 30 year Greek debt seems low.  It looks like the Participants may actually be helping out on current interest, that Participants are actually trying hard to make interest rates lower for Greece.  The first question is whether the coupon is paid just on the Greek portion or the entire notional.  It would be common practice for the coupon to apply to the full notional.  That begs the question of where the money is coming from to pay the coupon.  The Participants paid €76 billion for the notes, but €21.5 billion went to buy a zero coupon instrument to protect the principle at maturity.  So by definition that component is not generating the income.  So the entire 5.5% coupon must be coming from Greece.  Since Greece only received €54 billion, Greece must be paying a coupon of 7.70% on the money it borrowed to enable the SPV to pay a 5.5% coupon.  7.7% coupon for Greece seems less “cheap”.  Then there is noise about additional coupons of up to 2.5% based on the GDP of Greece.  An additional 2.5%, again paid only by the Greek portion, is 3.5% to Greece, so a total potential coupon of 11.2% from the Greek perspective.  Suddenly it isn’t so cheap.  An annual coupon of 11.2% for Greece in good times and 7.7% without the GDP kicker is not extremely low, nor a gift, in my opinion. 

Maybe 7.7% or even 11.2% seem attractive relative to where bonds are trading in the secondary market.  With Greek 2 year bonds yielding 27% according to Bloomberg maybe it is.  On the other hand, the Greek long bond yields 11.45%, so compared to potential rate of 11.2% it doesn’t seem like the Participants are making too much of a sacrifice.  In addition, the average coupon on bonds maturing prior to 2015 is only 4.57%.  That is the coupon Greece is paying and the Participants are receiving.  It does not matter where bonds are trading in the secondary market, the average coupon on debt in the 2011 to 2014 maturity is only 4.57%.  So as part of the SPV, Greece will be paying an interest rate of somewhere between 7.7% and 11.2% which is higher than the 4.57% Greece is currently paying on debt subject to rollover, and is almost as high as the 11.45% the existing Greek long bonds are yielding.  Once again, I find it hard to figure out where the big benefit is for Greece.

 


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Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:57 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Greek Debt Rollover - Who Is Getting Rolled Over?

I have this crazy urge to recite that joke about fat Greeks, rolling around in flour and finding wet spots.....but I can't remember the damn punch line.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:56 | Link to Comment Amish Hacker
Amish Hacker's picture

I'm sure someone will remember. This is Zerohedge, after all.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:08 | Link to Comment TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

Bollo: "I've got a bad feeling about this."

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:59 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

http://www.prisonplanet.com/greek-pm-austerity-is-patriotic-duty.html

As former Wall Street economist Michael Hudson notes, the so-called bailout will not help the Greek people, it will enrich the banks at the expense of the people.

“The Greek economy will not end up with the proceeds of any ECB ’bailout.’ The banks will get the money. They would like to turn around and lend it out afresh to the buyers of the land, monopolies and other properties that Greece is being told to privatize,” he writes. “Is this not like military tribute? … The bankers are trying to get a windfall by using the debt hammer to achieve what warfare did in times past.”

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:29 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

I heard it this way "How do you have sex with a fat Greek, roll them around in flour and look for the wet spots."

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:52 | Link to Comment monkeyshine
monkeyshine's picture

Jesus I truly cannot believe how many times I hear this joke told so poorly. 

The punchline is "Roll her in flour and go for the dough".

Get it? 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:07 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

roll her good into dough, then go for her flower?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:42 | Link to Comment monkeyshine
monkeyshine's picture

Nah, it is the one about how if you owe a bank $1,000,000 you are in big trouble, but if you owe the bank $100,000,000,000 the bank is in big trouble.  Greece is in the power position, though, I'm sure playing their power cards will hurt a lot it is gonna hurt either way they go.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 21:59 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It's not 'Kicking the Can" anymore.

It's full on corporate welfare for banks, channeled through sovereign coffers. All the rest is meaningless theater.  

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:09 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

And all of it! 
The whole bloody ball of wax literally centers around that magical mystery machine of financial forbearance and sacred insanity, the SPV/CDO/CLO/ whateverthefucksomebodywntstocallitrealniceandprettythistime.

Guarantee the principle by buying high quality bonds. 
(Plehhhhhsssss phhft snigger choke)
Like the high quality Greek debt that the ECB bought from the Greeks, or that the French wanted to be the first to sell over the weekend.
Right.

And Get This!
That those "evil fucks" (loosely, literally translated from the EU's description of the ratings agencies as "evil fucks") that the EU wants to outlaw and replace with their own ratings agency (independent, fair minded, impartial, etc.) are going to have to rate this piece of shit.

Which they will. 
Nicely, too. 
So that everybody who puts shit in gets better rated shit out, meaning (and I have seen this done first hand a bazillion times) an overall higher rating on the out than on the in so capital requirements against the new shit which is same as the old shit is... ta dah... less!

Victory laps all around..... for everybody!
Except the Greek people.  Ah, and throw in the rest of the European population just for good measure.

But the sad facts remain,
1.)  Greece is still gonna belly
2.)  The rest of Europe is now into this a la tar baby time... too deep to ever get out. 
3.)  The whole rape and pillage by the banksters with the approval of their political puppets rolls along, just fucking fine.

Great.  Just fucking great.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:45 | Link to Comment island
island's picture

You've really gotta wonder what the hell is going to bring this shit to an end.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:09 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

turning the fan off...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:48 | Link to Comment island
island's picture

Precisely.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:07 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Cracks Beneath: China, Greece, US and Derivatives

http://www.businessinsider.com/cracks-beneath-china-greece-us-and-deriva...

Again with those wascally derivatives......

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:04 | Link to Comment BORT
BORT's picture

What did you suspect?  It's the banks after all; doing God's work

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

There's a movement to convert the US to a constitutional monarchy. Would send markets higher. 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:39 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

With the bush's kennedy's and clinton's aren't we already one? And with the attempt to let only legacies and insanely rich and politically connected into the ivy leagues and then into the halls of power and government we are certainly headed there

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 03:46 | Link to Comment PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

I hope there won't be a BUSH III. Two of them were already enough for the rest of the world. And I am not speaking against Reps here.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:10 | Link to Comment Re-Discovery
Re-Discovery's picture

In a couple of hours, Greece will no longer be the word.

But now . . .  the pain in Spain will send Euro down the drain!

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:19 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

+1

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:14 | Link to Comment vegas
vegas's picture

Private gains, socialist losses. Nothing new here really.

What's really at stake here is getting by the corrupt ratings agencies. A "wink-wink" here, a "nod-nod" there, wrapped up in financial technical jargon your average money-honey at CNBC couldn't decipher if her life depended on it, and you have the financial equivalent of Neville Chamberlain's "peace in our time". WTF.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:20 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

"While lawmakers have taken a 25 percent pay cut, they still have drivers, leased cars, bodyguards and immunity from prosecution."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-28/greece-s-indignants-confront-politicians-they-blame-for-financial-plight.html

Its good to be king.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:17 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The ultimate moral hazard.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:22 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Mmm, depends on "the laws" staying current, they never seem to think that far a "head" ;-) 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:04 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
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 This is one of the reasons the Founders of this country wrote the 2nd Amendment...

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 04:21 | Link to Comment Reptil
Reptil's picture

Did that help sofar? This doesn't look encouraging: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qEF7bvO0Yvc

We got a Constitution too. They've "replaced" it without bothering to tell us. (Treaty of Lisbon) Laws don't help, if the people are not willing to stand up and have a revolution.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:23 | Link to Comment XenoFrog
XenoFrog's picture

Maybe this is one of those things that Democrats are talking about when they suggest we be more like Europe.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:04 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Ok I will have to admit that is one difference between the parties. Republicans fear european socialism coming to our shores. But you probably got junked by someone who doesnt believe there is a difference between the two major parties.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment Rynak
Rynak's picture

Fuck immunity....... just hang them right there.

This is how stuff will at least metaphorically ultimately be sorted out.... this is the "default" that they're steering towards: Raw collective force, that doesn't give a shit about "immunity" and "laws". It may be years off, but it is unavoidable if the current course continues.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

I believe you're correct Rynak, long term.

But of course they brought it on themselves...as long as the gravy train was rollin they were all good with it, workers/pols...human nature.

The Bloomie article reads like the way major metro American cities are run today (drilling down to a local level)...as long as the gravy train is runnin its all good...sad people can't see it before it gets this far.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:07 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Good to be a thug.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 04:40 | Link to Comment GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

"While lawmakers have taken a 25 percent pay cut, they still have drivers, leased cars, bodyguards and immunity from prosecution."

Did it mention anything about immunity from execution?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 06:24 | Link to Comment Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

"...immunity from prosecution."

Mussolini had immunity from prosecution, he still ended up hanging from a lamp post.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:22 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

2011-12 will be another Bailfest like 2008. On a grand scale

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:29 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Greeks should learn Slick's 3 rules of wrestling dynamics.

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MwuCS_WI-w4

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Smiley
Smiley's picture

Rolled over?  More like bent over!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:42 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

the Greeks are the Greeks, and THAT is the Greek heritage,  period... --didn't you all learn about Marathon and Thermopylae? 

LAUGH AT YOUR OWN EXPENSE.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:10 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Yeah back then greeks were real men.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Ah yes, the good old days when greek men buggered boys.....

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:43 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

please .... honest question .... who makes up the "troika" ?   I know that the word troika is a russian word for 'three of a kind' , but don't understand who they are referring to ..... the government ?  the bankers ?  ........ thank you !  

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:43 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

IMF. ECB. EU governments. It has all become so confusing that I think people use troika so they don't have to say which articular entity is doing what. Especially since they have secret meetings amongst themselves. Though maybe there is a better answer

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

How about calling them the Molochian Trinity from now on so as to avoid further confusion?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:44 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

IMF, EU & Greek officials I believe...could be wrong...I'll be corrected if so.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:22 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Butchaknow....
They all sit on all of each other's decision making bodies, committees, whatever's... so it's dynamic social democratic justice for all in action. 
The ultimate confusion.

Can't wait to see what the creditor group looks like after all this.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:46 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

First paragraph. I somehow missed it as well.

Working through the details as best possible shows it strengthens the positions of the banks and weakens the IMF/EU/ECB (“Troika”) and is expensive for Greece.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:03 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

I stand corrected ;-)  

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:04 | Link to Comment lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

o.m.g. .... i feel like such a dumb shit on this website sometimes.   yes, now i see it & now i understand ...... thank you !    Troika = the International Monetary Fund, the European Union & the European Central Bank !   (i'm getting good !)

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:11 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

don't worry about it lynnybee. its a jewish thing.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:51 | Link to Comment IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Excellent post. "Where is the coupon going to come from"; will be the question heard echoeing down the corridors of the formerly solvent in increasingly strident tones in the next few years. As Marc Faber says, "buying bonds is a suicide investment".

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 22:59 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Could be a long affair with Greece.  Then the news will be in the PIIS section.  Greece will bob up and down in a minor fashion while the Spanish, Italian, Irish do their song and dance.   One o' these suckas has to go down hard.  I'm too old for this crap.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:05 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

come on RR, never too old to witness a true battle between good and evil.

Peace and God be with you!!!

Agrotera

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:02 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

It probably is smooth sailing the next three months however.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:48 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, goody.  I'll take that Caribbean cruise I've been putting off.

Are you sure I won't miss anything?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:18 | Link to Comment natty light
natty light's picture

What about Eastern Europe, Baltic states, and I think Serbia. I believe Estonia had a massive property bubble.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:03 | Link to Comment Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

Everyone is assuming that Greece is going to get bailed out? My guess is no. Those banksters made money by peddling debt to the Greeks. They are making money bailing them out. Now there is nothing left. The country implodes and they make a fortune off of CDS and shorts. Why do you think markets are rallying? The prefect short.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:05 | Link to Comment SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

Tyler, don't know if you've seen this yet, but G-Pap has been urging Greek lawmakers to sell Greece's national silver store to help meet IMF/EU demands.

http://www.silverdoctors.com/

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:12 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Cool.

I always said i would be a buyer at the 200 dma. We got to be getting close. Think I will go check.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Getting close.

We ought to get at the minimum a brief playable bounce between 30.50 and 31.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:16 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Lets see. Greece has a population of 11 million.  Their debt + payments already made comes up to around $350 billion.  That's about $33K per year for each person or about $100K per wage earner.  Given an average wage of $15K per year ...  you can see a bit of an upcoming problem.  

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:21 | Link to Comment High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Look Stuck, Greeks owe this money. Yes they do. There is no way around this. They have a debt and by golly they are going to pay it all back plus interest. That is the way the game is played and that is the way the cookie crumbles. If they don't like it, NATO jets will do to Greece what they are doing to Libya....

and that is my roger doger.........

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:56 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Last figures I saw was $45K per person.  And it's $46K in the U. S.

Go figger.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:24 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

"...ready to snuff out the world's one hope of reason and justice."

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:25 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

,

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:25 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 Don't say roll-over. Greeks get very excited when someone says roll-over.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:33 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

Zorba the Greek!  OPAH!!!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:35 | Link to Comment Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

This is what I make of the article:

The home owner, the Greeks, are behind on mortgage payments to their mortgage lender (Germany and France). In order to pay past due mortgage payments the home owner has taken cash advances on their credit cards, the EU. 

The credit card is maxed out. The home owners have come to an impasse. Either the home owners get jobs or get second jobs in order to afford the fat mortgage payments, OR the home owners relinquish ownership of the house.

But, the mortgage lenders (Germany and France) do not want to foreclose on the house. Why? Because the mortgage lenders placed bets upon bets upon bets on the stability of the property's value. The neighborhood is full of foreclosures, thereby plummeting all home values. For the mortgage lender, another foreclosure would mean unthinkable loses. Bankruptcy.

Solution? The mortgage lender calls the home owner's credit card company and informs them of their shared risk. The mortgage lender suggests to the credit card company that they extend the home owner's credit limit. The credit card company agrees.

Additionally, the mortgage lender decides to offer the home owner a new refi mortgage, one whereby the monthly payments are reduced for four years, then increase thereafter.

Home owner: "Does this mean we can still retire at 52?"

 

Hmmmm. That story sounds vaguely familiar.

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 23:38 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

Come on now Founders Keeper, I love you BUT...you undoubtably are correct technically, but, take out the fact that the Greeks gave in to communism and the graft associated with their political system, they wouldn't expect 52 year old work pensions...

Just like all great stories, there are many ways to blame the victims but the Greeks are part of a very corrupt system, i believe, unwittingly.  It is time they got away fromthat, and ONCE AGAIN, DECLARED THEIR  INDEPENDENCE WHICH WOULD INCLUDE, NO MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU AND  BACK TO THE DRACHMA!!!!!AMEN.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 00:13 | Link to Comment Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

[...NO MEMBERSHIP IN THE EU AND  BACK TO THE DRACHMA!!!!!]---agrotera

Hi agrotera. Thank you for your  thoughtful Reply.

In case you hadn't reviewed the later posts on yesterday's Glenn Beck article, I Replied to one of your posts. Again, thanks for reminding me to pray for those who offend.

Will see you on the battlefield of ideas.

God bless.

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 01:02 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

I saw it and i take you into my heart and prayers dear founders keepers...God bless you and thank you so very much for the very kind words!!!

Hope for all of us to live another day for a chance to debate ideas (although some like truth, goodness and beauty are undebatable!!!! regardless of who might want to debate my statements!!!)

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 10:06 | Link to Comment Founders Keeper
Founders Keeper's picture

agrotera, your tenderness is a welcome contrast to the rowdy brawl that is ZeroHedge.

Your tenderness is moving. Truly a gift. I hope you embrace it always.

I expect a harsh future awaits our nation. Tenderness will be in short supply. Yours will be a soothing light of healing.

Thank you.

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 13:04 | Link to Comment agrotera
agrotera's picture

My cup runneth over, thank you Founders Keeper!!!

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 03:22 | Link to Comment interestrateripoff
interestrateripoff's picture

http://www.ozconspiracyhouse.org/frontend/2011/06/01/accusations-of-trea...

The gist of the allegations rest on the charge by Mr. Kammenos, that the Greek Prime Minister, Mr. George Papandreou and members of his team, presided over the sale of 1.3 billion dollars worth of credit default swap contracts (CDS on Greek sovereign debt) on or around December of 2009, shortly after coming to power. The 1.3 billion dollars worth of insurance protecting against a Greek default was bought during the spring and summer of the same year, by the Hellenic Postbank, a public banking arm of the Greek government.

......

However, we do not know if the move was initially made with the intention of reaping private profit, or simply as a hedge by the government itself against it’s own default.

 

The article does say the figures could be out, but the Greek govt may have bet on the Greek govt defaulting.  This is like running up a huge credit card debt knowing you will lose your job and taking on the employment protection insurance.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 03:27 | Link to Comment AldoHux_IV
AldoHux_IV's picture

Sounds like sovereign usury to me and it's sad that the banks continue to get away with this type of kleptocracy they've set up for themselves and their bought politicians.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 04:39 | Link to Comment Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I am curious as to how long the bankers will be able to juggle the stupidity of governments and the anger of the people, before the whole thing comes crashing down on them.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:15 | Link to Comment AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Anybody - is there a live vid/cam for the greek vote?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:16 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Syntagma square could be Sarajevo 1914....its where the next big bang starts. This time its monetary...plus social.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 05:33 | Link to Comment Highrev
Highrev's picture

The big benefit for Greece?

They get to live to see another day!

(And then they get a second chance in the form of a long term opportunity to work their way out of the hole they created for themselves.)

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 06:11 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

THEY didn't create it their kleptocratic oligarchs in parliament and business did... pure swindle at their and EU public's expense with the gullible complicity of all those ponzi bankstas from EU and USA. Same list of usual suspects!

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 06:38 | Link to Comment Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

Does anyone have any info on the rumor that the French and German banks have counterbalanced the risks on their loans to Greece with CDSs with our precious TBTF banks. If Greece defaults, then GS, JPM, MS, etc are in deep, deep shit.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 07:52 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

some blogger was big on that, but mis-read the BIS report he got the data from, Tyler's DTCC data from about 10 days ago is a better source for CDS exposure.  U.S. bannks, and even European ones, won't have much trouble from CDS

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

Thanks for the info. I'm so relieved, I was afraid that the TBTFs might have to take a haircut.

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