Guest Post: Guess Who's Almost Out Of Silver

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Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:16 | 1150231 insatiablegenius
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Atleast we know radioactive material could not do the same, oh wait..

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:22 | 1150267 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

In an attempt to bring the comments near the top of this thread to something remotely fucking related to the subject matter of the post, and with inflammatory language directed at the spamfuckers who hijack it to pimp their pretty charts (yeah you, 99er, tell me WTF your post has to do with JPM running out of silver?  ASS.  You are a perfect example of why most comment boards need to be moderated.)...

So...  Without further ah-doo:

How many people here think JPM is betting they will be able to buy that silver cheaper than $40?  How would they do it?

Can you say deflationary impulse?

I can.  Assuming they do it (which I think is better than 50/50), it's obviously a buying opportunity, but you may want to get ready.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:24 | 1150282 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Low, my guess is that if JP Morgue gets into any real trouble, the Fed will just bail them out.  JPM then just settle with cash, not ounces.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150300 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Possible (and why I gave odds), but consider the repurcussions if the COMEX is fully revealed to be a faux vehicle for price discovery.

At that point, gold moonshots as well, and the whole system goes *poof*.

I think they give it one last college try to save it.  Could be wrong, but I'm a gamblin' man.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:36 | 1150340 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I would agree with your analysis.  If either/both JPM or COMEX default on physical, they may get bailed out, but both Au and Ag take off.  Majestically!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:42 | 1150373 skohiu
skohiu's picture

didn't the CONex already change rules where it can just deliver GLD/SLV in lieu of physical? 

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/comex-can-now-deliver-gld-etf-instead-physical-gold/22425

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:05 | 1150456 tmosley
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Last I heard, they give shares of GLD or SLV+ a cash premium.

But nothing official--all rumors.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:57 | 1150647 ATM
ATM's picture

I'm almost certain it's now SLV/GLD are considered the same as physical delivery. If the contract is settled in cash there is a negotiated premium paid - which I am sure is how JPM will settle. 

Gov cash plus gov cash for premium makes Jaime feel really good especially since he's obviously in bed with the Fed who number one enemy is gold and silver since they are the truth serum. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:46 | 1150386 depression
depression's picture

Cash Settlement Bitchezz !!!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:15 | 1150717 Cash_is_Trash
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Cash is trash

Avatar pic taken inside Bernank's office

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 20:42 | 1152212 StychoKiller
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Ben's nuts roastin' on an open fire...:>D

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:02 | 1151161 Teamtc321
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Boooyaaaaaaa JP Morgue!!!! We roasted your ass on SLV today! Leaving now to go pick up more physical on your fiat.

Wooooooo hoooooooo, yes baby. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 20:48 | 1152231 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

CRIMEX has already defaulted.  Heard it here first.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:01 | 1150438 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I would agree with your analysis.  If either/both JPM or COMEX default on physical, they may get bailed out, but both Au and Ag take off.  Majestically!

Which is why I don't think it's going to happen...

...Yet.

 

 

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150372 centerline
centerline's picture

I would wager that these guys are a little ahead of the chaos.  Not by much.  But, maybe just enough to ride the next deflationary impulse into such a position.  Deflationary impulse already in the making actually.  It is the next leg of the events unfolding wherein the sovereign crisis becomes an epic political crisis.  That show is just warming up.  A little taste of deflation is all that will be needed to set the stage for the political crisis being turned into a public crisis.  And the blame for what happens next will have been shifted squarely onto the politicians and people.  Classic misdirection.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:09 | 1150462 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I think you may have nailed it.

I suspect though that they may not have the level of control they think they do.  Everybody thinks they can engineer to beat the tsunami, and then one comes along that's just a bit outside what you planned for and...

Either way, I am beyond giving a fuck...  Pass the beer nuts.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:17 | 1150507 centerline
centerline's picture

Agreed.  At some point they will get their pecker caught in the wringer.

I am with you.  Numb.  Quietly doing my own thing to prepare.  I dont even bother trying to shake people out of thier coma anymore.

<passing the beer nuts>.  Toss me a beer.  Its getting really interesting now.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:32 | 1150540 cossack55
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100% cuncur. I'll join you in a beer as soon as I get these cases of Polish vodka stored in the bunker.

Either way with silver. If drops I'll buy more, if up I'll buy more coffee, tobacco and iodine.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:39 | 1150562 LowProfile
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I'm long potatos, kettles, copper tubing and charcoal filters.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:01 | 1150664 Manthong
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Don't forget the whiskey.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 21:11 | 1152297 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

A fool-proof plan, cossack.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:34 | 1151303 sschu
sschu's picture

Centerline,

I need to thank you and offer credit for your model about how the crash will unfold.  I "borrowed" your ideas and have presented it to a number of friends who find it very helpful and informative.  We have adopted terminology for Phase 4 of People Crisis, I like your Public Crisis better.

Since it is my belief that we are in the midst of the Political Crisis, we watch the political scene closely to see the reaction to the budget crisis.  Right now we believe it will be a minimum of 2 years before and meaningful budget reform will take place.  We probably do not have that much time.

Once the politicians start abrogating resposibility, then the end will not be far off.

sschu 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 20:45 | 1152230 StychoKiller
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Once the politicians start abrogating resposibility, then the end will not be far off.

I fail to see very many responsible politicians whatsoever!

Sat, 04/09/2011 - 02:10 | 1152894 FeralSerf
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I'm not old enough to remember when they began abrogating responsibility.  I didn't know politicians ever accepted responsibility for their fuckups.

I agree the end is not far off.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:40 | 1150361 Cleanclog
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Just like they bailed the carry trades from Yen appreciation and the loss of zero cost funding currency for their risk trades.  No no no.  The Fed and other CBs just can't let financial institutions take the hits for trades that don't work out for them.  That's just for Moms and Pops.  Their homes, 401Ks, and jobs don't matter.  But bankers do.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:57 | 1151129 DosZap
DosZap's picture

DoChen,

There's ALWAYS an out for everone except the people playing by the rules.

Frn's as opposed to physical, every ETF w/exception of 2 or 3, always has this clause, and an out.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150287 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Why should Dimon care? He's gotten a nice bonus:

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/04/08/jpmorgan-ceos-pay-jumps...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:29 | 1150315 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

good lord.   my adult kids can't find any work that pays over $8.50/hr & he lives .    banking was NOT like this when I was a kid in the 1950's !   Banking was local & the banker was a well-respected member of his community !!!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150376 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

Those local banks are the functional equivalent of 'savers' and the bigger regional, national, and international banks whose managers sought to expand their business model using CDO's, etc. (purchased from even larger banks) are the equivalent of 'fools who should soon be parted from their money'. I'm sure you know which kind of bank benefits from the ongoing transition from bailout to infinite QE - the 'piggy' bank that built the straw house. A similar story about an ant and a grasshopper may yet play out, but for now the grasshoppers own the ants, their monetary system, and their UCC strawmen.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:45 | 1150599 impending doom
impending doom's picture

"the piggy bank that built the straw house" Classic! Who says mixed metaphors are a bad thing? I guess that's not really a mixed metaphor, but whatever.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:18 | 1151217 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Those local banks are fucking retarded as well...  whether it's buying a shit ton of toxic securities or whatever else some sell side asshole can dump off on them...  or making loans to people you to go church with etc...  they're neck deep too...  and, in a panic, the same thing is going to happen as did in 2008...  Uncle Sam rushes to save the TBTF and everyone pulls from small and regional to dump money in TBTF.

Yeah, they managed to pawn off a ton of shitty mortgages...  but, they still kept enough to sink them.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 17:17 | 1151595 Irwin Fletcher
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These days, too often, yes. For many years, American business schools have taught students to take risks, expand revenue and tell the customer anything whatever they want to hear, because they're always right. That's just what successful business people do. It produces quality. Quality is measured by sales success. Correlation - causation = clusterfuck.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:36 | 1150348 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

$20 mill is nothing.  Come on, are you serious?  These guys have billions and billions and billions and they have all the power.  That of course unless we all, [ahem] buy silver.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150374 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

~~ right .... they have all the power as long as WE keep playing their game !   withdraw your cash from banks (why the hell would we even keep money in banks when we're not earning interest on deposit & subject to fees) , buy p.m.'s , do not take out loans, have as little as possible to do with the banking system.    s.o.b. ROBERT RUBIN !!  This was all his idea to make up a crazy "money center " economy ......... our citizenry is damn bankrupt !!!     " hello, little boy, little girl ...... would you like to borrow unlimited money from us to go to school ? "   As Dr. Faber says, " when you off the people cheap money ........ THEY TAKE IT ! "

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:15 | 1150495 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Please consider that the largest 6 banks in the US do not really need the small checking and savings accounts. Not when they have deposits from large companies and the FED backstop.

Also, check out the size banks that have failed since 2008 other than 3 or 4 large ones the majority have been small regional or community banks. The message from the government is -who you gonna trust? Put your money in those that have the government guarantee.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:24 | 1150522 US Uncut
US Uncut's picture

I don't think this is true. Banks have made BILLIONS off of service fees, late fees, card fees all associated with smaller personal accounts. If they were not making good money, they would not be fighting policy to change the fees and transactions they can charge. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:50 | 1150610 gangland
gangland's picture

Ms. Lynnybee, I love you. You are my favorite person on the internet.  I mean that sincerely.  Took me a while to admit it publicly, but I see you are real and I love it. Did we ever meet at a wells fargo and I told you to go to zerohedge? Probably not, but it doesn't matter, you remind me of the real people I talk to everyday and tell them to go get the real stuff off of zh.  I wish there were 300 million like you. I love you because you are consistent and have reached many of the same conclusions I have.  Such as we are at war and to fight this war most effectively at the moment, one needs to stop playing their games, stop buying with prejudice.  That is number 1.  You are actually doing it and I love you for it.  Stay fearless.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:10 | 1150928 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i understand yer feelings for her (if lb is a woman, k?).  i'm pretty fond of her rant, myself, and have broadcast the exact same grand strategy agains the banksters since my first day on zH, plus the "do ya really want Uncle Sugar for a partner?  cash out yer retiment accounts, pay the fees, fines and taxes, and get to physical PM's (US Mint-produced gold and silver coins) and some cash" of course, too.  it's called liberation, and it's not just for girls anymore, is it?  this is simply how intelligent individuals act for their own best interests AND the good of the nation, as well.  one l-bee, one gangland, one slewie, one zero at a time. 

this is what we do, and this is how we do it.  our voices here are neither alone nor unheard, so kudos to tyler & co and the fight club for free speech they have established against the floods of half-truths and outright lies of our post-modern world.  you da man, tyler, you shitheaded asswipe!  wheee!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:20 | 1150985 gangland
gangland's picture

Big ups ! Uhuru!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:22 | 1151244 Auricle of Omaha
Auricle of Omaha's picture

This was the initial intent of the Constitution... If we didn't like what the government and banks were doing, we would just turn in our currency for the gold on deposit. Nowadays we just have to take the extra step of finding a bullion dealer. When the there is a monopoly on the printing of currency, we the people lose our inherent liberty.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:29 | 1150310 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I believe this is the registered silver at the new JPM vault, not CRIMEX.  JPM had an inflow of some 30,000 oz's about 2 weeks ago and it hasn't changed.

If so, this is one of many fraudulent vaults they play with, but not the only one. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150338 Quintus
Quintus's picture

You are correct.  I think this article is misinterpreting the situation.  For sure JPM has sold more contracts than it can possibly ever deliver, but this new depository (The creation of which, with indecent haste, was reported on ZH recently) most likely does not hold all of JPM's silver stock.  If it does, then (a) It's nice (If somewhat careless) of JPM to broadcast to the world the fact that they're virtually out of metal, and (b) Things at the Comex are far more FUBAR than we thought.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:03 | 1150444 youngman
youngman's picture

as an investor..how would you like to deposit YOUR gold or silver in JPM´s vault...know they have all those shorts to cover.....I think it would be a little unsafe...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:58 | 1150384 99er
99er's picture

Sorry, dude. It was intended for "The Fukushima Highway" thread just above. No need to be angy here. Jeez!

Regarding the charts, the forum pages have had 36,331 page views to date. Feel free to skip them but there are folks here who like them.

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:51 | 1150862 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I'll give you the benfit of the doubt.  Once.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:02 | 1150449 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

This is the essence of moral hazard. Who gives a shit, they'll never let me go under. Amazing...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:09 | 1150463 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Oh the irony... his ivory tower is not so stable :)

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:28 | 1151017 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Unfortunately for the JPMorgue and their ilk, "they" only have so much monetary Viagra to hand out for these bad gamblers to keep raping the system. This unholy gang-bang of the world is slowly coming to an end.

Reality is not optional...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:06 | 1150457 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Thanks Low, Silver For The People

http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=mhum

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:37 | 1150565 jomama
jomama's picture

angry much?

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