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Guest Post: Guess Who's Almost Out Of Silver

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Mark McHugh of Across the Street

Guess Who's Almost Out Of Silver

According to Jamie Dimon, he did America a favor when he agreed to take bailout money from taxpayers (and we didn’t even have the decency to thank him).  Last week ,we learned that the JP Morgan CEO likes his catastrophe’s predictable,  but as Mick Jagger once observed, “You can’t always get what you want.”   

So in case you’re wondering who might be stupid enough to
buy silver at $40, chances are extremely high it’s going to be  the guys
who sold at $15, $20, $25, 30, 31, 32, 33…..  On April 6, Bloomberg
reported Comex Silver Stockpiles as of April 5, and if you scroll down through the report, you’ll notice that JP Morgan has enough silver to fill, wait for it, 6 contractsYep 30,844 troy ounces, that’s all. 

Now consider this:  Since December, JP Morgan and their customers (whoever they may be) have sold more than  12.2 Million Ounces of physical silver (net).   Here’s JP’s activity year-to-date from the Comex report:

I will not insult your intelligence by explaining this any further.

Shine on you crazy Dimon!

 

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Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:16 | 1150231 insatiablegenius
insatiablegenius's picture

Atleast we know radioactive material could not do the same, oh wait..

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:22 | 1150267 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

In an attempt to bring the comments near the top of this thread to something remotely fucking related to the subject matter of the post, and with inflammatory language directed at the spamfuckers who hijack it to pimp their pretty charts (yeah you, 99er, tell me WTF your post has to do with JPM running out of silver?  ASS.  You are a perfect example of why most comment boards need to be moderated.)...

So...  Without further ah-doo:

How many people here think JPM is betting they will be able to buy that silver cheaper than $40?  How would they do it?

Can you say deflationary impulse?

I can.  Assuming they do it (which I think is better than 50/50), it's obviously a buying opportunity, but you may want to get ready.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:24 | 1150282 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Low, my guess is that if JP Morgue gets into any real trouble, the Fed will just bail them out.  JPM then just settle with cash, not ounces.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150300 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Possible (and why I gave odds), but consider the repurcussions if the COMEX is fully revealed to be a faux vehicle for price discovery.

At that point, gold moonshots as well, and the whole system goes *poof*.

I think they give it one last college try to save it.  Could be wrong, but I'm a gamblin' man.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:36 | 1150340 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I would agree with your analysis.  If either/both JPM or COMEX default on physical, they may get bailed out, but both Au and Ag take off.  Majestically!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:42 | 1150373 skohiu
skohiu's picture

didn't the CONex already change rules where it can just deliver GLD/SLV in lieu of physical? 

 

http://www.chrismartenson.com/forum/comex-can-now-deliver-gld-etf-instead-physical-gold/22425

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:05 | 1150456 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Last I heard, they give shares of GLD or SLV+ a cash premium.

But nothing official--all rumors.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:57 | 1150647 ATM
ATM's picture

I'm almost certain it's now SLV/GLD are considered the same as physical delivery. If the contract is settled in cash there is a negotiated premium paid - which I am sure is how JPM will settle. 

Gov cash plus gov cash for premium makes Jaime feel really good especially since he's obviously in bed with the Fed who number one enemy is gold and silver since they are the truth serum. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:46 | 1150386 depression
depression's picture

Cash Settlement Bitchezz !!!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:15 | 1150717 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Cash is trash

Avatar pic taken inside Bernank's office

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 20:42 | 1152212 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Ben's nuts roastin' on an open fire...:>D

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:02 | 1151161 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

Boooyaaaaaaa JP Morgue!!!! We roasted your ass on SLV today! Leaving now to go pick up more physical on your fiat.

Wooooooo hoooooooo, yes baby. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 20:48 | 1152231 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

CRIMEX has already defaulted.  Heard it here first.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:01 | 1150438 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I would agree with your analysis.  If either/both JPM or COMEX default on physical, they may get bailed out, but both Au and Ag take off.  Majestically!

Which is why I don't think it's going to happen...

...Yet.

 

 

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150372 centerline
centerline's picture

I would wager that these guys are a little ahead of the chaos.  Not by much.  But, maybe just enough to ride the next deflationary impulse into such a position.  Deflationary impulse already in the making actually.  It is the next leg of the events unfolding wherein the sovereign crisis becomes an epic political crisis.  That show is just warming up.  A little taste of deflation is all that will be needed to set the stage for the political crisis being turned into a public crisis.  And the blame for what happens next will have been shifted squarely onto the politicians and people.  Classic misdirection.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:09 | 1150462 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I think you may have nailed it.

I suspect though that they may not have the level of control they think they do.  Everybody thinks they can engineer to beat the tsunami, and then one comes along that's just a bit outside what you planned for and...

Either way, I am beyond giving a fuck...  Pass the beer nuts.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:17 | 1150507 centerline
centerline's picture

Agreed.  At some point they will get their pecker caught in the wringer.

I am with you.  Numb.  Quietly doing my own thing to prepare.  I dont even bother trying to shake people out of thier coma anymore.

<passing the beer nuts>.  Toss me a beer.  Its getting really interesting now.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:32 | 1150540 cossack55
cossack55's picture

100% cuncur. I'll join you in a beer as soon as I get these cases of Polish vodka stored in the bunker.

Either way with silver. If drops I'll buy more, if up I'll buy more coffee, tobacco and iodine.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:39 | 1150562 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I'm long potatos, kettles, copper tubing and charcoal filters.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:01 | 1150664 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Don't forget the whiskey.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 21:11 | 1152297 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

A fool-proof plan, cossack.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:34 | 1151303 sschu
sschu's picture

Centerline,

I need to thank you and offer credit for your model about how the crash will unfold.  I "borrowed" your ideas and have presented it to a number of friends who find it very helpful and informative.  We have adopted terminology for Phase 4 of People Crisis, I like your Public Crisis better.

Since it is my belief that we are in the midst of the Political Crisis, we watch the political scene closely to see the reaction to the budget crisis.  Right now we believe it will be a minimum of 2 years before and meaningful budget reform will take place.  We probably do not have that much time.

Once the politicians start abrogating resposibility, then the end will not be far off.

sschu 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 20:45 | 1152230 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Once the politicians start abrogating resposibility, then the end will not be far off.

I fail to see very many responsible politicians whatsoever!

Sat, 04/09/2011 - 02:10 | 1152894 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

I'm not old enough to remember when they began abrogating responsibility.  I didn't know politicians ever accepted responsibility for their fuckups.

I agree the end is not far off.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:40 | 1150361 Cleanclog
Cleanclog's picture

Just like they bailed the carry trades from Yen appreciation and the loss of zero cost funding currency for their risk trades.  No no no.  The Fed and other CBs just can't let financial institutions take the hits for trades that don't work out for them.  That's just for Moms and Pops.  Their homes, 401Ks, and jobs don't matter.  But bankers do.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:57 | 1151129 DosZap
DosZap's picture

DoChen,

There's ALWAYS an out for everone except the people playing by the rules.

Frn's as opposed to physical, every ETF w/exception of 2 or 3, always has this clause, and an out.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150287 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Why should Dimon care? He's gotten a nice bonus:

 

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industries/2011/04/08/jpmorgan-ceos-pay-jumps...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:29 | 1150315 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

good lord.   my adult kids can't find any work that pays over $8.50/hr & he lives .    banking was NOT like this when I was a kid in the 1950's !   Banking was local & the banker was a well-respected member of his community !!!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150376 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

Those local banks are the functional equivalent of 'savers' and the bigger regional, national, and international banks whose managers sought to expand their business model using CDO's, etc. (purchased from even larger banks) are the equivalent of 'fools who should soon be parted from their money'. I'm sure you know which kind of bank benefits from the ongoing transition from bailout to infinite QE - the 'piggy' bank that built the straw house. A similar story about an ant and a grasshopper may yet play out, but for now the grasshoppers own the ants, their monetary system, and their UCC strawmen.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:45 | 1150599 impending doom
impending doom's picture

"the piggy bank that built the straw house" Classic! Who says mixed metaphors are a bad thing? I guess that's not really a mixed metaphor, but whatever.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:18 | 1151217 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Those local banks are fucking retarded as well...  whether it's buying a shit ton of toxic securities or whatever else some sell side asshole can dump off on them...  or making loans to people you to go church with etc...  they're neck deep too...  and, in a panic, the same thing is going to happen as did in 2008...  Uncle Sam rushes to save the TBTF and everyone pulls from small and regional to dump money in TBTF.

Yeah, they managed to pawn off a ton of shitty mortgages...  but, they still kept enough to sink them.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 17:17 | 1151595 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

These days, too often, yes. For many years, American business schools have taught students to take risks, expand revenue and tell the customer anything whatever they want to hear, because they're always right. That's just what successful business people do. It produces quality. Quality is measured by sales success. Correlation - causation = clusterfuck.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:36 | 1150348 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

$20 mill is nothing.  Come on, are you serious?  These guys have billions and billions and billions and they have all the power.  That of course unless we all, [ahem] buy silver.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150374 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

~~ right .... they have all the power as long as WE keep playing their game !   withdraw your cash from banks (why the hell would we even keep money in banks when we're not earning interest on deposit & subject to fees) , buy p.m.'s , do not take out loans, have as little as possible to do with the banking system.    s.o.b. ROBERT RUBIN !!  This was all his idea to make up a crazy "money center " economy ......... our citizenry is damn bankrupt !!!     " hello, little boy, little girl ...... would you like to borrow unlimited money from us to go to school ? "   As Dr. Faber says, " when you off the people cheap money ........ THEY TAKE IT ! "

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:15 | 1150495 newworldorder
newworldorder's picture

Please consider that the largest 6 banks in the US do not really need the small checking and savings accounts. Not when they have deposits from large companies and the FED backstop.

Also, check out the size banks that have failed since 2008 other than 3 or 4 large ones the majority have been small regional or community banks. The message from the government is -who you gonna trust? Put your money in those that have the government guarantee.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:24 | 1150522 US Uncut
US Uncut's picture

I don't think this is true. Banks have made BILLIONS off of service fees, late fees, card fees all associated with smaller personal accounts. If they were not making good money, they would not be fighting policy to change the fees and transactions they can charge. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:50 | 1150610 gangland
gangland's picture

Ms. Lynnybee, I love you. You are my favorite person on the internet.  I mean that sincerely.  Took me a while to admit it publicly, but I see you are real and I love it. Did we ever meet at a wells fargo and I told you to go to zerohedge? Probably not, but it doesn't matter, you remind me of the real people I talk to everyday and tell them to go get the real stuff off of zh.  I wish there were 300 million like you. I love you because you are consistent and have reached many of the same conclusions I have.  Such as we are at war and to fight this war most effectively at the moment, one needs to stop playing their games, stop buying with prejudice.  That is number 1.  You are actually doing it and I love you for it.  Stay fearless.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:10 | 1150928 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i understand yer feelings for her (if lb is a woman, k?).  i'm pretty fond of her rant, myself, and have broadcast the exact same grand strategy agains the banksters since my first day on zH, plus the "do ya really want Uncle Sugar for a partner?  cash out yer retiment accounts, pay the fees, fines and taxes, and get to physical PM's (US Mint-produced gold and silver coins) and some cash" of course, too.  it's called liberation, and it's not just for girls anymore, is it?  this is simply how intelligent individuals act for their own best interests AND the good of the nation, as well.  one l-bee, one gangland, one slewie, one zero at a time. 

this is what we do, and this is how we do it.  our voices here are neither alone nor unheard, so kudos to tyler & co and the fight club for free speech they have established against the floods of half-truths and outright lies of our post-modern world.  you da man, tyler, you shitheaded asswipe!  wheee!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:20 | 1150985 gangland
gangland's picture

Big ups ! Uhuru!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:22 | 1151244 Auricle of Omaha
Auricle of Omaha's picture

This was the initial intent of the Constitution... If we didn't like what the government and banks were doing, we would just turn in our currency for the gold on deposit. Nowadays we just have to take the extra step of finding a bullion dealer. When the there is a monopoly on the printing of currency, we the people lose our inherent liberty.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:29 | 1150310 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

I believe this is the registered silver at the new JPM vault, not CRIMEX.  JPM had an inflow of some 30,000 oz's about 2 weeks ago and it hasn't changed.

If so, this is one of many fraudulent vaults they play with, but not the only one. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:44 | 1150338 Quintus
Quintus's picture

You are correct.  I think this article is misinterpreting the situation.  For sure JPM has sold more contracts than it can possibly ever deliver, but this new depository (The creation of which, with indecent haste, was reported on ZH recently) most likely does not hold all of JPM's silver stock.  If it does, then (a) It's nice (If somewhat careless) of JPM to broadcast to the world the fact that they're virtually out of metal, and (b) Things at the Comex are far more FUBAR than we thought.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:03 | 1150444 youngman
youngman's picture

as an investor..how would you like to deposit YOUR gold or silver in JPM´s vault...know they have all those shorts to cover.....I think it would be a little unsafe...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:58 | 1150384 99er
99er's picture

Sorry, dude. It was intended for "The Fukushima Highway" thread just above. No need to be angy here. Jeez!

Regarding the charts, the forum pages have had 36,331 page views to date. Feel free to skip them but there are folks here who like them.

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:51 | 1150862 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I'll give you the benfit of the doubt.  Once.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:02 | 1150449 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

This is the essence of moral hazard. Who gives a shit, they'll never let me go under. Amazing...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:09 | 1150463 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Oh the irony... his ivory tower is not so stable :)

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:28 | 1151017 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Unfortunately for the JPMorgue and their ilk, "they" only have so much monetary Viagra to hand out for these bad gamblers to keep raping the system. This unholy gang-bang of the world is slowly coming to an end.

Reality is not optional...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:06 | 1150457 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Thanks Low, Silver For The People

http://www.youtube.com/user/BrotherJohnF?feature=mhum

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:37 | 1150565 jomama
jomama's picture

angry much?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:43 | 1150825 Banjo
Banjo's picture

Stay away from paper silver and or gold. It is essential to buy physical. Why? Because look at the chart above lots of paper but no actual silver.

You MUST be patient and ride out the dips. Time is on your side we have one very sick global economy and rampant money printing, with precious metals forming only minor allocations in peoples portfolios.

I have made my larger allocation to metals over the past three years and am at the stage where I do my regular monthly accumulation on much smaller volume.

If JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs or other bank crashes, I don't particularly care from my persepctive the whole thing is gone up in a ball of fire already, it's just the people in charge won't admit it by marking to market.

Oh yeah...

Silver Bitchez

Sat, 04/09/2011 - 06:48 | 1153026 huntergvl
huntergvl's picture

"In an attempt to bring the comments near the top of this thread to something remotely fucking related to the subject matter of the post"

Agreed 100%.

ZeroHedge comments used to be interesting...more often than not of late, the comments have nothing to do with the post and everything to do with sounding clever and talking about completely irrelevant bullshit. If you feel a need to be heard, start your own blog and post your shit. If you don't have a comment related to the post....STFU!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150306 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

HOLY CRAP!! WARNING! CESIUM 137 FOUND IN CALIFORNIA MUSHOOMS AND STRAWBERRIES!!

 

http://fiatsfire.blogspot.com/2011/04/ding-dong-ding-silver-tops-40-oil....

 

WHOA! DON'T EAT ANYTHING FROM WEST COAST!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:29 | 1150529 US Uncut
US Uncut's picture

Yes and here is the data from UCB. 

http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/2525

And since other states are being rained down on with crap from Japan, consider far more than California as contaminated. 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:30 | 1150775 cornedmutton
cornedmutton's picture

All material, organic or not, contain natural sources of radioactive elements, Cesium and Iodine included. Guidelines are set, based on assumed consumption rates, which limit the amount that is allowable per kg, such that yearly consumption does not result in annual internal doses above the "recommended" level.

Bananas are a good example of what I'm refering to as they contain Potassium (of which a small percentage is naturally radioactive).  More here for those that care to investigate:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose

What the report you link leaves out are the measured levels BEFORE the Japan quake/tsunami. It's impossible to tell whether or not these levels are actually elevated as a result of the disaster as there is no control.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:08 | 1150921 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

NO NO NO ZH, this is all wrong.  Kid Dynamite said anything the Morgue tells us is true, and that the comex is fine as well, plus CNBC said a whiel ago that gold is a bubble.  In fact, as of the last 7 days, in a row, the GOld Comex has shown ZERO depsits in a delivery month which is normal (add high/full retard sarcasm here).  Everything is fine, nothgin to see sell you metal. 

 

The real question is did the J Dime of the JP morgue buy any pyzzz with his $21 million bonus?

 

www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:26 | 1150295 Mae Kadoodie
Mae Kadoodie's picture

The shit storm keeps getting worse.  But at least west coasters can pick up an extra house or car.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:32 | 1150329 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Yes now an Average American can afford a home...from Japan floating in the ocean but still a nice property brought to you by the NAR which according to them will only go up in value if you get an ARM immediately.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:43 | 1150371 Blano
Blano's picture

Who needs beachfront property when you can have the entire ocean at your feet (literally).

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:06 | 1150458 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

Silver EEAGLES selling for $51 each on ebay..... someone knows!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:42 | 1150817 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Silver EEAGLES selling for $51 each on ebay..... someone knows there's a sucker born every minute!

 

There, fixed it for ya.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 18:56 | 1151915 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

Bought some silver rounds today at the coin shop for $42 each.

It's hilarious that many of the same crowd who endlessly bitch about the US government will only accept ounces of silver minted by that same government.  Talk about a brain-dead dissonnect.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:10 | 1151193 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

Hmmm... let me think... do I want $5000 in FRNs or 100 silver eagles??? 

The "sucker born every minute", it would seem, would be the seller, not the buyer...

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:47 | 1150396 mt paul
mt paul's picture

wonder if there is any silver

floating in the tsunami debris....

maybe JPMorgan should go check...

they're gonna need it ...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:47 | 1150601 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

who might be stupid enough to buy silver at $40

 

Hey prick I'm still buying above $40...

 

Until a better store of wealth appears I will continue to convert all my useless FRNs to silver.

Sat, 04/09/2011 - 01:24 | 1152851 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

As Max Keiser has suggested, let's all go out and buy an oz of silver.  Even if we could just get 100K people doing this once a week, we would tighten the vice on Mr. Dimon's hemorrhoids a little more.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:13 | 1150220 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

we need a new picture of marla in an ice cave processing buy silver orders

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:17 | 1150236 velobabe
velobabe's picture

s l i d e , bitch†

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:58 | 1150422 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

I know you think you are Marla.  If you were, then why would you drop off my blog roll.  Don't make no sense to me.

Tyler not here.  Tyler gone.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:14 | 1150225 Gubbmint Cheese
Gubbmint Cheese's picture

I wonder how this keeps on going without blowing up...

 

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:33 | 1150337 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

Bond vigilantes been given some reason not to end game? 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:11 | 1150472 flattrader
flattrader's picture

I've been wondering the same thing.

What could it be?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:50 | 1150612 Ahmeexnal
Ahmeexnal's picture

Trusted sources tell me TPTB don't want to spoil the royal wedding.

Endgame in May.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:39 | 1150815 Votewithabullet
Votewithabullet's picture

Oh fuc me I want to spoil the "royal wedding". Fucking royals. I'm 47 so I've heard some stupid shit aber to suggest we're conducting policy around the "royals" is fucking stupid. Your source is attempting to mislead you lizard king.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 15:44 | 1151076 Mesquite
Mesquite's picture

They're one of the '13 Bloodlines"...

Snoop around...Educate yourself...

Peace

 

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:14 | 1150226 insatiablegenius
insatiablegenius's picture

Time to trade in my gold for silver, was a great ride but it makes little sense to hold more then 15% anymore my 75% - 30% silver to gold holdings will now be more like 10% - 90%.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:24 | 1150268 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I am thinking very similar.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150288 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

IMO...  Time to start thinking of fading guys who think like you two.  With respect, as perhaps you have shorter time horizions or are better market timers.

...Love watching the GSR sink, plan to be fullyin in Ag by 1:15...

Why?

Freegold bitchez!  Banks don't own silver and it's too important an industrial metal to monetize!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:42 | 1150363 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

The gold guy I respect the most is FOFOA.  He wrote me once and said he would limit his Ag holdings to the same WEIGHT as Au.  I have more Ag than Au (in oz).

My guess (and I know nothing) is that we will not get to the traditional GSR of 16:1.

Either way is OK though!  Those of us holding are in better shape than those who do not.

Low, I am thinking long term, as I have since the 1980s for gold.  I was late to the silver party though (my cost basis is some $22 / oz plus or minus).

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:07 | 1150452 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

I am heavier on ounces of Ag than Au but the Ag is for spending/bartering once the dollar is dead.  Most of it is in 1 oz rounds.    

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:20 | 1150738 impending doom
impending doom's picture

And your change will be in what exactly?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:47 | 1150848 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yachts.  Or DaVinci paintings.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:51 | 1150864 Idiot Savant
Idiot Savant's picture

Wow, some of you are in for a big surprise. WTF, do you think there'll be commerce for the measly two percent holding silver? The other ninety-eight percent will sit idly by and starve?

Get real. If there's food shortages, I'm not trading a can of beans for a wheelbarrow full of au, or ag.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 19:01 | 1151938 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

If you can't buy food or shelter with PMs then what use are they?

Sat, 04/09/2011 - 01:31 | 1152861 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Use a bag full to hit someone over the head with, then steal their food??

Seriously, you better have your water, food, shelter and the means to protect it worked out before storing wealth in pm.  Lead and brass first, silver and gold a distant second.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:15 | 1150498 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

I used to listen to this guy early in the morning , when his radio show would come on. He is somewhat obscure and most people don't know anything about him. Just a farmer, living in Missouri, and former protege of Gordon Kahl, a man who was murdered by law enforcement, simply because he refused to abide by IRS rules etc.......in my opinion, any comparison to 1980, simply cannot be made. we are now at the end of fiat. strange things will be happening. as many speakers have said. we are in unchartered territory.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MbACmw3y-Q8

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:59 | 1151480 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

A man who was killed by law enforcement because he shot at police officers...  details details.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:14 | 1150488 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

The gold/silver ratio should continue to tighten. No reason it shouldn't get back to 15/1 or even 10/1 (some people say even).

You would be a market timer if you wanted to fade them thinking that for some reason, silver will sell-off short term and the ratio would widen back out.

They have a great idea. Don't disparage them for it.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:17 | 1150504 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

we achieve 16 to 1 , about every 30 years. the last time was in 1980. we are overdue.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:40 | 1150578 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Note I gave due respect owing their time horizion might be different.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:25 | 1150761 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Your entire persona is based on disparaging someone else...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 14:32 | 1150787 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

I disparage a troll that comes in here and says stupid fucking shit becuase he has no life.

Not anybody that has a legitimate idea or question and/or just wants to learn more.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 17:27 | 1151626 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Relax. Damn, I need to put <sarc> on everytinhg these days it seems...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:53 | 1150632 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i'm with you, LowProfile@1150288!   36 handle on the ratio, now!  uhhh,...looks to me like like tyler would be doing the readership a service if he penned a missive about this, explaining wtf we mean, even tho he may have aready done so in the past.  "we" at zH have helped people pull the trigger on PM's, esp silver;  some of the commentz from last nite, especially, thank the site for just this. time for lesson #2?

tyler!  slewie sez get to work on this now, dammit, janet!  really, dude, might be fun for the self-medication rallye, here, tonight.  thx.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:43 | 1150382 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Good move Dochen. I've suggested that a few times in the past here.

Gold is going to slow down and the momentum is now firmly with Silver.

Much to your and everyone's benefit, even now.

ORI

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:15 | 1150229 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

They rolled out of their Au shorts though.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:18 | 1150232 ranrun
ranrun's picture

Does this include the seven million dollars of silver they just got from Von NotHaus?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:20 | 1150263 living on the edge
living on the edge's picture

+1

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:21 | 1150509 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

if it had been me, that silver would be so hidden, nobody could find it, and i would not care what they did to me, they would never, ever get their greedy little paws on it. surely he saw this one coming. did he think the beast would leave him alone?  i would have played the game of what if, till i am blue in the face on that one, and buddy, i would have guessed this one from a mile off. easy guess, when you are dealing with no law masquerading as the color of law.......that is one of our problems. we think there is law when there isn't. there is no law.........

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:17 | 1150238 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

He can buy some from me. Oz of silver for an oz of flesh starting with his heart or liver if he has no heart.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:22 | 1150260 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Start from his private parts. You might get an ounce there.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:25 | 1150289 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

If he was a she I might be interested in a peek of the goods. As it is....NOT!!!!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:20 | 1150242 DarkMath
DarkMath's picture

Tyler,

This is because they just opened the vault a couple of weeks ago and there have been no deliveries.

 

It's going to be a long time before Comex runs out of Silver. But that's a good thing. We don't want any of us Silver Bugs to incur a windfall tax if Silver went from 40 to 400 in 1 week.

 

Right, whose with me. The price action has been fantastic. How could it get better than this?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:25 | 1150273 SWCroaker
SWCroaker's picture

Your facts are getting in the way of a juicy tale...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:16 | 1150490 flattrader
flattrader's picture

It's Friday and the Tyler(s) are tuckerd out.

Gotta post something.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:22 | 1150518 romanko
romanko's picture

seems to be the trend lately on ZH

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 16:19 | 1151224 Jonas Parker
Jonas Parker's picture

If silver goes from $40 to $400 in one week, there won't be a windfall tax, or a US government either...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:21 | 1150249 poopman
poopman's picture

that would mean that jp morgan chase has less than 1.25 million in silver....does this mean they are probably going short silver...lets sink dimon, BUY SILVER. oh ya, give tyler and marla a couple duckets if you got a few extra.

 

god bless zerohedge

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:34 | 1150550 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Just got in my "A silver coin is a silver bullet" shirt. Still mad that I can't find the "JP Morgan can kiss my ass" shirt.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:19 | 1150252 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Since when has a lack of physical stopped JPM from selling anything?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150291 BobPaulson
BobPaulson's picture

Round it off to zero in the vault. No effect. Now if they were running out of paper or ink, that would be serious.

"Some will rob you with a six-gun,

And some with a fountain pen." - WG

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:19 | 1150256 Jason T
Jason T's picture

i have hunch no QE3 and fed tightening so to be sur to tank silver price.

 

they intervened on the hunts before...  but i'd rathe watch on sidelines than guess 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:20 | 1150258 Filthy Rotter
Filthy Rotter's picture

30k!?!

I nearly hold 1/10th the amount of physical as The Morgue? Bananas!

Maybe I should ask them if they want a loan?  On second thought...fuck'em!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:16 | 1150491 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

+3k

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:20 | 1150259 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Dont worry JPM (I know, you are well aware), if things get too far, COMEX will change the rules on the future contracts so you can settle with fiat at a fraction of the contract price.  Thats the beauty of playing by the big boy rules.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:24 | 1150264 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The longer this insanity goes on, the more likely it will be that JM Morgan gets a special dispensation from the various Ponzi Gods of Olympus to wash all those silly paper shorts right out of its hair because they were doing Gods work.

TBTF means precisely that. They will not go down for this particular version of fraud. If nothing else National Security will be invoked and I'm willing to wager it already was invoked several years ago.

And so it continues.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:23 | 1150280 Dr. No
Dr. No's picture

Im sure if Bunker Hunt cared, he would be snickering at people who think the futures market would break a TBTF.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150299 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Yes, they will bailout JP Morgue like they did before.

Physical Only, Friendz!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:59 | 1150425 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

Jamie is on the phone: "Hank Paulson forced me to buy Stearns, its not my fault that we got stuck with all of those legacy silvers shorts.  The government is responsible, come bail us out!"

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:21 | 1150265 Universal
Universal's picture

He who could change the rules at half time to cover the week points and multiply their strength will have an advantage

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:24 | 1150266 Martin Silenus
Martin Silenus's picture

Love the Floyd ref...well you wore out your welcome with random precision, rode on the steel breeze.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:24 | 1150269 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is all falling into place guys. Just patience, and for me, 0 margin.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:29 | 1150318 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

me too, they cant shake the tree hard enough to make me fall out.....i am in (until i dont even know when)

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:22 | 1150272 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

IOW, you can buy the remainder of COMEX silver for 1.2 million.

The world has gone mad.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:23 | 1150274 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

Wonder how safe the silver in their vault for SLV is now IF its still there!!!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:23 | 1150279 Ska Himself
Ska Himself's picture

Will someone explain this to me (still trying to wrap my head around it) ...

So if enough people who hold "paper" silver (silver contracts) stand for delivery and demand that they recieve their silver here and now (trade in their paper claims for the real thing), then what?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:43 | 1150369 JPMorgan
JPMorgan's picture

Cash settle, renege, all out lie... tell them there will be slight delay in delivery (of a decade or two).

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:48 | 1150389 samsara
samsara's picture

No,  Many are in it just to collect the 'Penalty"  JPM will pay.

If they can't deliver,  JPM pays a 25%+  cash penalty.

Heck of a 'Collection' Bonus...

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:56 | 1150418 Ska Himself
Ska Himself's picture

So if I own a contract for 1,000oz at let's say at $50 (so $50k), silver goes up to $50 an oz in value, and JPM (Comex) can't deliver at $50 then they owe me $62,500?

Am I getting this right?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:22 | 1150512 JustPrintMoreDuh
JustPrintMoreDuh's picture

Indeed.

But considering a loaf of moldy bread might soon cost $62,500

... is it really that great of a deal?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:35 | 1150543 Ska Himself
Ska Himself's picture

How big is the loaf?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 17:24 | 1151616 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Still better off than the zombies who have no PM's or fiat though, right?

Sat, 04/09/2011 - 05:46 | 1152997 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Better to have the land, to grow the wheat, to make the bread.  Someone once said, "you can't eat gold".   If people are starving from lack of available food, a gold coin won't be worth a can of beans.  The man with the extra can of beans will decide the "price to be paid" and how you will pay it.

Fri, 04/15/2011 - 19:30 | 1174689 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Not a student of history, I see

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:55 | 1150415 Double down
Double down's picture

The pile goes nuclear.

One high level argument is that when the contractual obligations cannot be satisfied by the vendor he defaults.  (tons of small print here, so do not quote me)

Another high level argument is that the vendor has to go into the spot market and procure silver to satisfy the counter party.  This drives up the spot prices "quite a bit".  Also, it is known by all that the institution buying physical at that point is JPM and they have very very deep pockets.  Prices will thus rise stratospherically.  (these are theories and I too am rather new to this, so do not quote me)

 

 

   

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 20:14 | 1152126 Lord Koos
Lord Koos's picture

The COMEX defaulted on Nickel a few years ago... not much info out there about this, but it happened.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:24 | 1150284 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

Against a backdrop of crushing trans-national deflation, the fools rush in. The big unwind and deleveraging is going to be ugly, necessary, but ugly.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:26 | 1150285 Triggernometry
Triggernometry's picture

"But how can this be? For his is the Quisatz Haderach."

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:43 | 1150381 Double down
Double down's picture

Good quote!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:26 | 1150294 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

By the way, the silver buying mania in India is officialy on. sustained delays on delivery, dealer speaks of shortages, big premium on physical, extremely volatile pricing. used to be the smallest part of the store. On my last visit, I saw first time buyers picking up a kilo. 

If gold takes a back seat here and a lot of the black money goes to Silver, it is enough to move world markets. Both ways. If India's realize the gold sale into silver purchase market, the ratio could move fast. Remember, 18,000 tonnes in private hands in India of gold and hardly any silver bullion in possession. 

Winds of change.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/04/08/back-from-a-little-sojourn/

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:31 | 1150327 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

18,000 tonnes of gold in private hands!  India gets it.  THAT PART anyway!

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:25 | 1150519 tmosley
tmosley's picture

That's pretty amazing.  That is about a half an ounce for every man, woman, and child in India.

Dunno what the figure is for Americans, but I would wager it is around the weight of their wedding bands.

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:28 | 1150297 Lord Welligton
Lord Welligton's picture

So if someone has to cover a massive short at $40 and there are no sellers at that price?

A very sharp spike?

What if there are no sellers @ $50?

Who would take the risk of selling at $50 if they did not have physical to back it up.

 

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150298 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

He just got $19 million for "guiding" JPM thru the financial crisis so well.....i wonder if he will have to give it back for losing it all to SILVER

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:33 | 1150336 Ska Himself
Ska Himself's picture

I'm thinking this was his going away present. 

Fed's making ruffles about letting TBTF firms fail*. If however, they do let firms fail then JPM may be on the chopping block. 

So again, this might be an early going away present as there would be no way he could be bonused this amount if the firm entered bankruptcy.

*yeah I know could be all BS but winds may be a changin'

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:35 | 1150346 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Which part of "Too Big To Fail" do you not understand?

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 13:10 | 1150464 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

If you think he's losing 19 million on silver think again.

He's losing 19 trillion.

It's a pound of flesh but it's really a ton.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LloIp0HMJjc

Fri, 04/08/2011 - 12:27 | 1150304 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

 

my heart breaks for them....awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww

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