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Guest Post: High Hurricane Activity Threatens Gulf Oil Production, Cleanup Efforts
Submitted by www.oilprice.com
High Hurricane Activity Threatens Gulf Oil Production, Cleanup Efforts
As hurricane season begins in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, forecasters are predicting higher-than-usual activity that could disrupt oil and gas production in the Gulf and hinder efforts to clean up the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Tuesday that forecast hurricane activity could reduce Gulf oil production by 26 million barrels and natural gas production by 166 billion cubic feet. This compares with the median reduction of 5.8 million barrels of oil and 39.5 billion cubic feet of gas in a typical hurricane season.
The EIA forecasts are based on the latest predictions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for an above-average hurricane season. The agency in May forecast that there would be 14 to 23 named storms in the Atlantic Basin, with 8 to 14 of them turning into hurricanes (winds of 74 miles per hour or more), and 3 to 7 reaching category 3 (111-130 mph) or higher – which is considered a major hurricane.
In the period 1950 to 2009, a typical hurricane season had 10 named storms, with 6 of them reaching hurricane status, and 2.4 registering as category 3 or higher.
The biggest hurricane impact came in 2005, when Hurricanes Katrina and Rita reduced oil production by 103 million barrels and natural gas output by 610 billion cubic feet.
Meanwhile, forecasters at Colorado State University warned that the above-average hurricane season could interfere with efforts to clean up the Gulf oil spill.
CSU’s lead forecaster, Phil Klotzbach, said that if the season follows the forecast, hurricanes could wash more of the oil ashore.
“If the storm tracks to the west of the oil, there is the potential that the counter-clockwise circulation of the hurricane could drive some of the oil further towards the U.S. Gulf Coast,” the expert said.
CSU raised its hurricane forecast for this season due to tropical Atlantic surface temperatures much warmer than usual and cooling tropical Pacific conditions. The forecasters now predict 18 named storms, compared with 15 in their April forecast, including 10 hurricanes instead of 8. They now expect five hurricanes to reach category 3 force, compared with four in the April forecast.
The probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast was estimated at 76%, Klotzback said, compared with the long-term average of 52%.
Source: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/High-Hurricane-Activity-Threatens-Gulf-Oil-Production-Cleanup-Efforts.html
By. Darrell Delamaide for Oilprice.com who offer detailed analysis on Oil, alternative Energy, Commodities, Economics and Geopolitics. They also provide free Geopolitical intelligence to help investors gain a greater understanding of world events and the impact they have on certain regions and sectors. Visit: http://www.oilprice.com
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How come BP is up so much?
Rumors about BHP taking an interest.
I don't think so. They don't have enough cash to do so. And if they where, they would wait until the liabilities become clear.
Where did you read that?
Rumors going around [but nothing official yet] that Petro China will make a tender offer when stock drops sub-20$. PBoC and ICBC syndicating the financing; maybe even Agro Bank. Those are the rumors; is there any truth in them; I dont know; but, IMHO, it is a logical move for China to make.
Wouldn't that be ironic...
Here we are spending a fortune in blood and treasure to strategically control access to Persian Gulf oil from the likes of future potential adversaries including the Chinese war machine...
Then the Chinese go do something batshit crazy like scooping our own oil from under our noses and unloading those soon to be worthless greenbacks in the process...
This has the same chance for success as their bid for Unicals South China Sea assets IMHO...
They wouldnt scoop "your" oil.
They would buy a company which has rights to explore and drill in certain geographical areas which are rich in hydrocarbons.
It would be nothing short of classical take-over [not hostile] and strategic positioning to insure future energy supply needed for sustainable growth.
Nationalistic tensions might get awaken, since UK still believes its an "empire".
But hey; most of you guys advocate free market; takeover would be nothing short od a dictionary definition of "free market action".
So if China Inc. finds themselves having difficulty supplying their own domestic needs they will forego accessing their newly acquired reserves? (thinking down the road here...)
BTW... I wish they would 'scoop' the oil... especially the stuff lying on the beaches!
(Can you imagine say 20 million cheap rural Chinese laborers with bags and shovels along the gulf coast?... should make it a condition of sale...)
"Can you imagine say 20 million cheap rural Chinese laborers with bags and shovels along the gulf coast?"
Not as easily as 20 million cheap rural mexicans...
MIAP "mop it again pedro"
Perhaps you have a point there Bananaman... after all it is their Gulf... and really that means it is their problem...
But the probability they will remain at the beach and go home once done is? :)
It's not like we're going to need it. With the environment damage this will cause, and the inevitable evacuations of much of the Gulf and probably eventually eastern coastal areas, economic output in the southeast and eastern parts of the US will probably begin a further rapid deterioration, plunging the country into the Greatest Depression Evah.
This is so going to suck. No water, no air, no soil will go untouched by the effects of the spill.
Game Over.
I am Chumbawamba.
Once the spotlight is off this sucker (if the new plan works...) this will quickly drift out of sight and out of mind... you would be amazed.
Most of the oil is already on the bottom of the gulf and the rest is thoroughly mixed and diluted into the water column.
The true hideous effects as you have surmised... will still be there for decades to come but the collective anger of the sheeple won't. (half life of < 6 months)
http://www.examiner.com/x-40364-Energy-Policy-Examiner~y2010m6d10-US-Coa...
They have 72 hours.
I know what Clif High and the HPH guys say. However, it's not like we haven't been here before.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zjqY64WqC30&feature=related
Granted, the flow rate is 'bout 3-4x as much.
you are Chumbawamba
As of yesterday, BP was £73.6 billion ($A128.9 billion) and BHP £110 billion. Resource rent tax or no, BHP is now the world's eighth-largest company by market worth
http://www.smh.com.au/business/oil-spill-may-turn-a-partner-into-a-preda...
How come BP was down so much?
Rumor that the DOJ was going to block BP dividends.
However,
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A Justice Department official said Thursday that the agency is not preparing to seek an injunction that would block BP PLC (BP, BP.LN) from paying dividends to shareholders. The official, speaking on the condition anonymity, said the department has not ruled out the option of seeking an injunction at some future time, but has no plans to do so now.because there was blood in the streets yesterday. That's why I bought and I could scream loud enough that it was a buy.
I was talking the other day at work about this upcoming hurricane season. It would just be Murphy's Law here to have a decent one run right past Cuba into into gulf and plow the Louisinana coast line.
The number of storms is totally irrelevant. Its where they go that counts. Steering currents tend to take them all along the same course. If there were 50 storms and the Bermuda high steered them out into Atlantic, the 50 storms would be meaningless. So are the predictions.
a couple of years ago they predicted 19 major storms and 5-6 hurricanes and we ended up having no storms at all. With such a great track record I think we have nothing to worry about.
+1
Cheap shot. It's hard enough to predict what's going to happen tomorrow let alone over the next six months. A lot harder than sitting on a message board and calling others stupid, that's for sure. The NHC track record is damn good, sonny boy and getting better every year. Those of us who live with the threat appreciate their efforts on our behalf, even if you don't.
We have enormous amounts of volatiles in the atmosphere immediately around the spill (soon to be carried by the jetstream worldwide, if they get that high) that will likely cause some effect to the weather patterns, so who knows what will happen.
But to believe that we will avoid a catastrophe on two orders of magnitude over what we have now is pathetic wishful thinking, I'm afraid.
I am Chumbawamba.
I for one will welcome hurricane season. As George Soros once aptly put it... "When the tide goes out we get to see who's swimming naked."
There were reports over the past few weeks by several research vessels that there were giant undersea pools of oil in the vicinity of the leaking well. Recently when the NOAA and Coast Guard investigated however, they said that these large pools contained only 0.5 parts per million of oil per unit of seawater. Since this level is not detectable to the naked eye (unless on the surface as sheen...) someone is clearly not telling us the truth yet once again.
If these pools do exist a hurricane will almost surely result in some of this washing up on the beaches... or not if NOAA/GC are correct.
Then we will once again see who is not wearing a swimsuit... bets anyone?
Does anyone know about the hydrodynamics involved here? Would oil-laden water contribute to or mitigate the intensity of a hurricane?
It seems to me that it would sort of slow a hurricane down more than anything because of the viscosity of the oil, but that is just a guess.
(not trying to down-play the gravity of the situation, just curious)
The only thing that slows a hurricane down is the removal of the fuel source, that is, warm Gtropical water. The amount of oil in the Gulf, big though it is, is still insignificant compared to the amount of water in the Gulf. Think of it this way. Buildings don't slow the damn things down. Bridges like the Biloxi causeway don't slow the damn things down. A little oil in the water isn't going to slow them down either.
Warm water vapor feeds hurricanes... so yes an oily sheen on the surface will decrease the intensity of the hurricane. Not too long ago a similar surface oil hurricane mitigation proposal was published. I'll try to find it...
And here we go... (close anyway... too difficult to fruitfully search now with all the background noise...)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1476
The real stinker is that some of the oil is likely to precipitate out in the rain perhaps tens or even hundreds of miles inland... yuck!
From the article (above):
Conclusion
A tropical cyclone in its formative stage--as either a tropical depression or a tropical storm with 40 mph winds--might be adversely affected if it encountered the Gulf of Mexico oil slick, due to the reduction of evaporation into the storm. However, a full-fledged hurricane would mix the oil into the ocean to such a degree that the storm would probably not see any significant reduction in evaporation. It remains unknown how the reduction of sea spray by oil might affect a hurricane. If the oil slick expands to a much larger size, there might be a significant reduction in strength of the hurricane, if theory of how a reduction of sea spray will decrease a hurricane's winds is correct. However, the oil slick is currently Delaware-sized, while a hurricane tends to be Texas-sized, and I doubt that the oil slick at its current size is large enough to have a significant impact on a hurricane's intensity. The slick is about 60 miles across, and it would take a hurricane about four hours to traverse the spill at a typical hurricane forward speed of 15 mph. Furthermore, the slick is within 50 miles land, and interactions with land will dominate the behavior of a hurricane that gets that close to the coast. Unfortunately, there is a decent chance that we'll get a real-world opportunity to see what will happen...."
TY!
BP is up just like oil and other oil and rig companies because of the Iran embargo from the US that Obama announced.
Masters from wunderground weighed in on the hurricane potential
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1492
LOL, hurricane forecasters make weathermen and economists look like Carnac the Magnificent. Living in the gulf region as I do, it didn't take me long to realize that hurricane activity can NOT be forecast with ANY accuracy. This is a non-story.
Loving that black gold. Soon i'll be able to afford those Brazillian hookers like RoboTrader again.
I am fully confident that this year's hurricane season will be dull and listless, solely because we are stocked up on supplies and ready for the worst.
It's always the way.
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