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Guest Post: A Hot Future For Geothermal
Submitted by Marin Katusa & Marc Bustin, Editors of Casey's Energy Report
Capturing energy from the earth’s heat is pretty easy pickin’s for geologically-active areas of the world like Iceland, Indonesia, and Chile. In some locations, hot fluids are so near the earth’s surface that heat from naturally-occurring hot fluids can be directly circulated through buildings for heating. Iceland, in particular, takes advantage of this low-hanging energy fruit.
However, in most areas of the world where geothermal energy is captured, the heat is used to generate electricity.
Conventional Geothermal Energy
Unlike some of the more common alternative energies — hydro, solar, and wind — geothermal is impervious to weather conditions. This independence means it provides excellent base load electricity.
Currently all commercial geothermal electricity is generated by so-called conventional systems, whereby naturally- occurring hot water or steam is accessed at comparatively shallow depths in areas of very high geothermal gradient. Wells are commonly drilled to depths on the order of 2 km. The water or steam they produce is used to spin turbines that in turn generate electricity.
The success and sustainability of a geothermal reservoir in large part depends on managing the reservoir. For a reservoir to be sustained, the natural and induced recharge of fluids must balance the produced fluids. Almost all reservoirs require the produced water to be re-injected in order to maintain reservoir pressure. Because naturally-occurring water and steam are necessary, potential development is generally restricted to areas near volcanic activity.
But the geographic limitations of geothermal energy may be about to change — and create a much rosier picture for the future of geothermal energy.
Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)
Conventional geothermal systems are possible only in relatively limited geographic areas. The real prize in accessing geothermal energy – and at a much larger scale – is through enhanced (or engineered) geothermal systems.
In EGS, hot rocks are artificially fractured, commonly at great depths. Water is injected to contact the hot rocks and then produced back to the surface; the energy captured is used to generate electricity. These are very expensive ventures, with costs in excess of $10 million dollars as a starting point — ten times the cost of a geothermal well. Current EGS projects are still experimental, and most have substantial government backing.
A relatively advanced EGS experimental system is currently underway in Australia. Here, granites producing high heat due to radioactive decay at depths greater than 3 km are seen as viable geothermal reservoirs. In South Australia alone, some 23 companies have filled licenses covering 110,000 sq km where suitable hot granite is believed to exist at accessible depths.
Once such a plant is built, it will be tapped into a virtually limitless supply of energy that’s available without cost, 24/7. Successful implementation of EGS plants will be the break-out technology for geothermal energy.
Is Geothermal Economically Viable?
A workable technology is one thing, and economic viability is something entirely different. As you can see from the chart below, not all energy sources are created equal when it comes to cost per kilowatt-hour.
In terms of production cost, geothermal certainly holds its own at 6.5 cents per kilowatt-hour — about the same as wind. Coal and nuclear power are still powering the way ahead with their 4-5 cent/kWh generation costs, but with natural gas at 7 cents and petroleum topping 10, geothermal has already proven itself to be a viable alternative, not only on the economic front but on the environmental front as well.
In terms of current worldwide energy production, geothermal — along with solar — is a drop in the bucket:
Given the fact that geothermal energy is only a minor player in the worldwide picture for energy, why are we still bothering with it?
Because in terms of economics, geothermal energy trounces solar and wind.
Here's what we mean:
- Geothermal energy does not depend on weather. The sun doesn't shine around the clock or even every day; neither does the wind blow all the time. In contrast, hot rocks are there 24 hours of the day, seven days a week. The predictable amount of electricity makes it easy for geothermal companies to sign long-term energy contracts without worrying as much about underproduction or "wasted" production.
- Lower capital costs. Even though solar panels have gotten much cheaper to make, the construction costs of a large solar farm are still extremely high. Recent estimates place the cost of solar energy to be upwards of US$10,000 per kilowatt-hour (kW) whereas wind is around $1,700-$3,000/kW. Geothermal is similar to wind at US$1,600-$2,800/kW depending on location, though due to reasons 1 and 3, geothermal is economically superior to solar and wind. In fact, these numbers put geothermal on par with building a coal plant under the new requirements for carbon capture. Geothermal capital costs are relatively low for two reasons. First, there's no need to sequester, or capture and stash, any carbon emissions. This requirement alone can add 40-60% to fossil fuel projects. Second, geothermal power plants enjoy the best of both worlds: they require less land than wind and solar projects, and fewer permits than coal and nuclear because they're less hazardous.
- Higher load factor. Utility companies, and anybody buying power from them, have to consider load factor: the difference between nameplate capacity (how much the generator is designed to produce) and actual production. The smaller the difference, the higher the load factor, and the more money the utility will make. For a wind farm, the load factor is generally 30-40%, and even lower for solar farms. In contrast, geothermal power plants can generally operate near 90%, since, as we said before, hot rocks are always available.
On an economic basis, geothermal has a virtually unique advantage among the "green" energies. Its power plants can compete with those fired by coal or natural gas even before any government subsidies. For geothermal operating companies in the United States, the government subsidies that Obama is showering upon the alternative energy sector are pure icing on the cake.
And best of all, geothermal companies are virtually off the radar of most investors. For those keeping an eye on geothermal technology and geothermal companies, a window of great opportunity will open.
This kind of research is typical of Casey’s Energy Report and its research team, led by Marin Katusa. And with a stock pick record of 19 winners in a row — a 100% success rate over 11 months — Marin’s insightful research has made a great deal of money for his subscribers.
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I agree with you that wind and solar are a complete waste of resources. Calpine, which went bankrupt, started out as a Northern California geothermal play. I'm not convinced of the economics and, apparently, neither was Calpine since they opted for high-efficiency combustion gas turbines. So, I'm highly skeptical.
One of the big problems with geothermal in the early days was that the contaminants in the steam, for California it was sulfur, eroded the turbine blades and other equipment, making the maintenance costs very high. Not sure if this was ever overcome.
can't overcome the tons of sulfur that need to be trucked to HazMat disposal. Kinda kills the economics. SMUD Geo had this "unintended consequence".
Ned
In that schematic, there are two loops with a heat exchanger so no sulphur contacts any machinery.
The main problem is thermodynamics. 2nd law efficiency is crap if the hot side is 550 Kelvin and the atmosphere is 300. Some will run a vapour compression refrigeration system on the warm water as a heat pump.
If you are not making electricity but doing heating, geothermal makes a lot of sense. It works best when you have community heating (houses or condos share the capital cost and the heated tubes connect a bunch of homes).
Hot tubs and stewardesses work even better.
greensharts?
Not even good enough quality steam for piston generators. Nothing like the pure dry steam you have to have for turbines. As any drops of water in the mix crater your turbine blades.
shell-side fouling killed SMUD, and the condensate pumps for re-injection are in contact with primary, err... "steam" and "condensate". Good comment below about district heating, maybe some condos in the Geysers? Reykjavik nice any time of the year.
- Ned
It also cause earthquakes. Not good for the machines and cities nearby.
With what we spent on the Iraq war we could have done the solar equivalent of a Hoover dam and generate more power than we ever get out of Iraq.
Now we get sham scientists baking false data to create a Global Government in Copenhagen - interesting comments from Christopher Monckton, House of Lords; http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/12/11_Lord_Christopher_Monckton.html
One company that may be a game changer is Blacklightpower: http://www.blacklightpower.com/exec_summary.shtml.
There is quite a bit of controversy in the "Scientific Community" about the validity of their process - and rightly so if a radical "clean energy" process stands in the way of a "New World Order" then all of the paid scientific hacks will put in a little OT trying to discredit the process - ...there's gold in them carbon tax credits. Nevertheless, Dr Randall Mills (MIT) and the board of directors have an impressive array of credentials and experience not to mention their portfolio of patents.
An interesting comment made by Christopher Monckton in the video after having read the Sept draft Copenhagen Treaty (few have evidently) is the subjugation of our national sovereignty as well as patents.
More and more, from Busishtas to Obanazis the PTB are showing their hand in a totalitarian grab for power. What they have devised is a system based on moral hazard and sustained by socialism, facism or communism - probably a melding of all ideologies, either of which ultimately strive for totalitarian control and will not end well should they happen to succeed. This time it is global and so will be the catastrophe.
On a positive note the Black Light process lends itself to a distributed energy model which obviates centralized control. It will also reduce support infrastructure like pipelines, refineries and tankers where those resources may be deployed to more productive areas.
This is a company everyone should become intimately aware; write congress and senators to perhaps provide incentives, whatever it takes. Too many of these people pioneering alternative energy have died in suspicious circumstances. Read up on Dr Eugene Malove or Stanley Meyer or Tesla to name a few.
If we are not collectively aware of what is going on and take the path of life, liberty and pursuit of happiness - as that has been key to tapping the creative force of millions of Americans making this country a miricle in the pages of history - then we will be left to endure the consequences.
geothermal is the way to go. I like nevada geothermal power...nglpf.....long nglpf
And with a stock pick record of 19 winners in a row — a 100% success rate over 11 months — Marin’s insightful research has made a great deal of money for his subscribers.
Great, ZH runs another promotion from the penny stock pumping newsletter that is paid by the bullshit companies it pumps to produce "research" reports. Please ZH, no more criticism of CNBC if you're going to run garbage like this. CNBC wouldn't run this crap, this is the stuff of 30 minute infomercials on cable TV and local radio.
casey research is by no means a "penny stock pumping newsletter that is paid by the bullshit companies it pumps". they are the real deal and by far the most informative and intelligent research group that i have come across. get your shit shit straight before your comment and do some research.
Here's one of their high quality ads:
http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=152&ppref=GPB152ED0809A
Here's a previous promo piece they had at ZH and documentation in the comments below that this bucket shop operator receives compensation from the companies it promotes.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-best-energy-investments-world
Damm, Marin Katusa has great thing going. Get paid to shill stocks and sell saps newsletters with the recco. Nice. Is Katusa any better then the GS boys, or is he perhaps worse?
Where is Marla when you need her? Zerohedge should be outing these creeps, not promoting them.
http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewiStockNews/articleid/3570260
Finders' Fees: $72,000 cash payable to Raymond James Ltd.
$22,199.94 cash payable to Global
Securities Corp.
$100,000 cash payable to Vancouver Venture
Report (Marin Katusa)
[for promoting]
CBM ASIA DEVELOPMENT CORP. ("TCF")
BULLETIN TYPE: Private Placement-Non-Brokered
BULLETIN DATE: October 21, 2009
TSX Venture Tier 2 Company
TSX Venture Exchange has accepted for filing documentation with respect
to a Non-Brokered Private Placement announced September 16 and 28,
2009:
Number of Shares: 11,000,000 shares
Purchase Price: $0.30 per share
Warrants: 11,000,000 share purchase warrants
you have no idea what your talking about...subscribe to the international speculator for a few months and well have this debate again. you have obviously never paid for any of their services.
Agree. If it's not Marla shilling for that creepazoid Timothy Sykes it's Tyler pushing the snake oil.
Marla admitted that ZH jumped the shark in one of her replies. How long until Tyler makes the same call? Can I get a Booohya?
been to Nevada Geos plant just north of Vegas. Its a real thing and a real plant and it looks like its wired to produce real electricity if all of those high tention wires mean anything. Own a few thousand shares also. I think it is the wave of the future since there was little if any eco complaints about the plant.
Believe me when I say this, econazis can find anything to blame.
As a former subscriber to their IS (mining, not energy mag) I would say their $x000 paying premium subscribers did far better than the run of the mill $x00 payers and that Casey and co did best. But right or wrong they have no place here, they seem to have too much involvement with the companies they should comment on impartially and were well short of financial analysis, Yes they probably know something about energy and geotherms, but I'm sure there are others who more deserve a listening.
As a former subscriber to their IS (mining, not energy mag) I would say their $x000 paying premium subscribers did far better than the run of the mill $x00 payers and that Casey and co did best. But right or wrong they have no place here, they seem to have too much involvement with the companies they should comment on impartially and were well short of financial analysis, Yes they probably know something about energy and geotherms, but I'm sure there are others who more deserve a listening.
heres a minor example of the breadth of doug casey himself...some penny stock pumper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CC-ZxzYneOQ
This is a must watch
Al Gore speaks with Conan O'Brien on Geo Thermal (seriously)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ns_4pzfOSTc
Thanks for posting that link. That's the funniest thing I've seen all week. Gore tells Conan if you go down a few miles the core of earth is hot, "several million degrees" and we've only recently developed drill bits that can handle the heat. The metallurgist who developed the materials for those drill bits deserves to join Gore as a Nobel Prize winner since the surface of the sun is only 6000 degrees Celsius.
No wonder we have global warming. It's a wonder the earth hasn't turned into a ball of fire yet.
Gore actually said if you go down 2km (6,500 feet - i.e. there are mines that are twice as deep) the temperature is several million degrees - but the part about the drill bits is priceless.
The only number Gore knows for certain in this world is how much a cheeseburger costs at the late night drive through.
While his royal Gore-ness did badly flub the Earth's temperature by a good three orders of magnitude, citing the sun's predicted surface temp is disingenuous. Both the corona and the core of the sun are predicted to generally be in the millions of degrees K.
P.S. make harder captchas!
Factually Correct.
suffice to say Mr. Gore was off by several million degrees in his estimate of the Earth's temperature @ a depth of 2km -
Yes, I could have cited the core temperature of the sun which I saw estimated at 15 million degrees Celsius but I thought it was safe to assume core temperatures of the earth were not likely to be in that neighborhood. I used the surface of the sun to scale it down.
#160805 - The core of the sun is some half million kilometers below its "surface". So in this case I think that Green Sharts is correct in his comparison as 2km below the surface would be measured in the thousands of degrees. Likewise to refer to the Corona is also a poor comparison as that is effectively the highest level of the Sun's atmosphere.
But the issue is that Al Gore was not speaking of the Sun but of the opportunity for harnessing Geothermal energy here on Earth. In that context he revealed just how much of a charlatan he is when he made the statement that the Earth had a temperature of several million degrees just 2km below its surface. Even if he has said several hundred degrees that would have been a gross exaggeration.
Is Al Gore showing off his impressive scientifical mind again?
First of all, the surface of the sun isn't nearly the hottest part of the sun. The heat generated by pressure is much hotter at the deeper depths.
Pressure brings on the powers of nuclear fusion, which is why the surface of the sun is nothing compared to the inner layers of the sun, the core, radiation, and convection zones. As hydrogen fuses into helium, energy si given off through photons and gamma rays in the proton-proton chain.
(In the fusion process, mass is turned into energy at the rate E=MC^2, which is the mass of the hydrogen molecules given off in the proton proton chain times the speed of light 186000 km/s SQUARED)
The same principles work on the Earth. The HUGE amounts of pressure from the mass of the Earth is what allows the Earth to have a molten iron core. At extremely high pressures, the molecular bonds of rock can no longer stay as a solid.
Likewise, the insulation from miles of rock will keep the rock from melting on the surface, unless radioactive decay accelerates dramatically, which is impossible in formulas that accurately gauge half life with base e.
Anyway, it's quite possible that the core of the earth is at higher temperatures than the surface of the sun, because the surface of the sun is constantly radiating the majority of its heat in photons and the solar wind.
In fact it is. After looking it up, the core temperature of the Earth is about 7000C, which isn't "millions of degrees" but it is hotter than the 6000C surface of the Sun.
The core temperature of the Sun is about 15 million C, which is way hotter than the surface.
With that said, geothermal is more than just a "quack science" because the core of the Earth is in fact hotter than the surface of the Sun. If you don't believe me, a Google search will appease your doubts.
My highest grade this semester was in astrophysics (103%), so this information is fresh in my mind.
LOL. I enjoyed that, as well. And thanks to Green Sharts for outing these hucksters.
Geo Thermal is HUGE. I and one of my friends have looked into it for our personal properties. The only draw back is the cost to drill the wells. They are expensive and would take many years to recoup.
Although, for Local Energy Companies it would make sence. Problem is that they could more than likely not make as much money as they do supplying other fuels.
I do believe this is the Future. You can heat and cool without Coal, Oil or Electricity.
We should turn Yellowstone National Park into an electric generating plant and use some ultrahigh voltage to push more mass quantities of electrons to more consumers.
that's a brilliant idea actually
athena for secretary of the interior
....just thought you might be interested.
I see they waited untill late friday afternoon to release this information, 7 billion carbon trading fraud.
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2009/12/11/eu-carbon-credit-trading-fraud....
Wouldn't want it to interfere with the festivities in Dopenhagen would we?
Europol suggests that 90% of trading may be fraudulent...
The "Work of God" perhaps?
technical crime on tax evasion - nothing more
they are off to the next loophole
The untapped potential of alternative energy is staggering.
The US Patent laws allow the US Gov to take ownership of any patent in the name of national security - Say Climate Change .... And yet the "solution" to Climate Change is a tax.
Fossil fuels could be eliminated very quickly, however doing so would create independence for individuals. Solar hot water has a very fast payback and low cost, it can even be DIY'd.
Most cars can't use ethanol due to intentional plastic selection in their gutts - Lets not worry about the pros and cons of ethanol and just worry that cars are intentionally crafted to reduce their fueling options.
Telsa Motors has has success not becuase of new technolgy of the car. Telsa Motors had success due to YouTube. How it that? Because the Telsa Motors founder video taped the performance of electic cars and provide to people via youtube that Detriot was flat out lieing about electric car performace. Combustion engines have significant torqe delays, electic motors have zero delay and can supply that torqe (acceleration) at any motor angle.
The lies told to the masses are a crime.
The there is the energy storage lie. While it's true the energy storage is something on an issue, it's far from a problem. This is the basis of so called "grid tied systems", and it's why electric companies lie about their safety and those try to force prohibitive fees regarding their use. basically solar systems push energy into the electric grid during the days for other users, and the homes supplying that energy draw energy at night for near zero usage. This essentially means that current electric plants will NOT go away but the number of user they can support grows dramatically - Efficiency goes up dramatically, and the energy production reduces to a narrower window as most people do not use much energy at night when they is no sun agumenting the energy.
Then people talk about the high cost of solar electric. When yeah when so much is done to deny patents from commercialization via oil companies buying them and use them to deny other of the techniques. Then you have the same issue of any technology, the more demand goes up the cost goes down. Just in the past two years I've watched the cost of ~200 watt solar panels go from ~$5 per watt to $2.5 per watt. That is still high, but not that high for more well of families to invest in it for their homes. And again, up the demand and cost would go down. Lie to everyone telling them it's useless ineffective technology and the cost stays high.
Simply put, chaos is very easy to monitize, stable systems are not.
A roof filled with solar electric panels rated for 25 years lifetie, and heating panels, is a very stable system. And that's why that option gets poisoned in people's minds at every opertunity.
Wind power is also very cost effective, however it is more location sensitive similar to geothermal. Another thing I never hear discussed, geothermal systems place tubes into the ground that are hundreds of feet long and have rediculious lifetimes. So here is a question, why should your refridgerator heat your home in summer? In winter it make sense in effect it's an expensive why to heat your home but the "heat loss" is recycled by offering the heat to your home. However in summer the ground is allways very cool and if your fridge cycled it's heat to that geothermal tube it's effiency would gow up dramtically and not load your AC system.
The opertunties are endless. Fossil fuel dependence is an outragous lie and deception. The cost is switch is high, but the systems has dacades long lifetimes and thus I suggest should be looked at as investments - Versus the Climategate tax we're all about to have sucked out of our pocket thus increasing our cost for what we have and provide ZERO BENEFITS!
This guy has no concept of Eroi (Energy return on investment). Crude oil is made from a million years worth of solar energy being converted to plants and then those plants decaying and creating oil. You can not replace a million years worth of solar energy with solar panels and wind turbines.
That being said I don't know a lot of details about goethermal. Maybe it can compete with coal and nuclear. Nothing can compete with crude oil in terms of its energy density, ease of gathering, ease of transporting, and ease of use. (EROI). Maybe a smooth transition could have been made if investment was made before peak oil, not after. We've already eaten through the possible buffer.
>This guy has no concept of Eroi (Energy return on investment).
Just one of many:
http://www.affordablehomeelectronics.com/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWPROD&P...
And as I said, prices are plumeting. Each square meter receives about 1 horsepower of energy from the sun about 20% being convertable now. That's far more power than most homes need based on just their roof area.
That fact that fossil fuels represent "stored energy" means nothing given it can only be used once. Each dollar spent on a solar panel will produce energy for 25 years, versus that dollar being spent to get you to the supermarket and then it's gone forever. And that 25 years is the guarentee that comes with the panel and ignores the ability to repair it, thus 25 years is conservative.
Geothermal is the same as fossil fuels but with a key difference, the stored energy is massive compared to what we humans need. Not to mention the stresses created by the moon also heat the earth due to deformation of the earth, yet another truely massive "store energy system" that makes fossil fuel a flea fart in a huricane by comparison.
You wish to burn your dollar so be it. Some prefer to change the dollar into something usefull for a great period of time. As for the math:
http://visforvoltage.org/forum/3603-11000-watt-hours-equals-one-gallon-g... (28,500 watt hour)
http://www.godshome.us/solar/solar.html (36.625 kW-hrs)
Taking the higher number: "Therefore, one gallon of gasoline contains 36.625 kW-hrs of energy."
And on ebay solar panels are at $2.50 per watt. So for an electric solar panel
(6 hours per day) * (365 days) * (25 years) = 54.750 kW-hrs
And since that watt of solar panel cost about the same as 1 gallon of gasoline today that means that solar panel produces 150% the work of that gallon of gas.
(36.625 kW-hrs) * (150%) ~= 54.750 kW-hrs
And this of course ignores the fact that combustion has very low energy conversion to work, that is low efficiency - Which is why you'll burn your hand on the engine block and why most cars today run very hot to increase their efficiency (yeah, it's counter intuitive). Modern car engines have an efficiency of about 25%, diesel about 40%:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Engine_efficiency
Electric motors are 95% efficiency and up. Thus one can effectively double the above calculation and suggest that $1 spent on the solar panel gets you perhaps 300% more than the dollar spent on gasoline. That is on the basis of useful work obtained, assuming we can't use the heat for anything, then that $2.50 spent on the solar panel give you 3 times more work that $2.50 spent on gasoline.
Then we toss in the fact that solar panels are decreasing in price, and oil will increase in price, and thus that ratio increase the factor of 3. Over time conversion efficiency will increase and again the factor of 3 will grow, and combustion engines require INefficiency to operate:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine
"The maximum theoretical efficiency of a heat engine (which no engine ever obtains) is equal to the temperature difference between the hot and cold ends divided by the temperature at the hot end, all expressed in absolute temperature or kelvins."
Or simple put there must be heat loss somewhere, period. Not true for electrics.
I hope that puts to rest your concern about my understanding of "Energy return on investment".
And yes, it really is this simple.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ge0jgudOQzc
Drag Racing Tesla Roadster (4 in a row)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiLhyx80RYM
Any more questions? :)
Like I said, were it not for YouTube it would not be so easy to prove the Detriot BS wrong about electric cars .. The BS we engineers know full well but can't otherwise easily teach the masses. All that simple math above does not do it, but even more videos do:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZVdRgcgz-9g
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTKexaylnt4&feature=related
Electric Car QUICKER THAN A FERRARI ENZO 0-60 3.07 sec!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SsGeQby7Jnw
Oh, and when was the last time you replaced your furnace fan? How about your fridge compressor? How about your desk fan? Now when was the last time you changed your car's oil? What would have happend if you did not change the oil?
Electric motors and drive trains do not burn themselves up with use, which combustion engines do because of the excess wasted heat. Electic cars are virtually maintenance free, and trivial to repair and replace. This is not an effective way to create recuring revenue compared to combustion engines. Detriot has no interest in a car that lasts for 25 years, and never needs their proprietary spare parts during that time. Just like your laptop's proprietary battery, anybody can make a replacement battery for an electric car as well, and thus lots of companies make lower cost batterys that match the OEM.
And the oil companies have no incentive for consumers to realize they'd get more from solar. Again, it really is that simple.
I can't recall the dictator who said this:
"The best way to defeat opposition is to own it"
This is why oil companies buy alt energy patents and companies, and sponser PBS to pat themselves on the back about it. This is why the oil companies promoted alt energy before Obama was elected, then forgot they even mentioned it after he was elected. This is why the useless Chevy Volt is being made for production.
Anon, good post, though I got tangled up in the units conversion (my bad). So you suggest a 25% duty cycle (6 hr/day avg. sun) seems reasonable. What to do with the other 18 hours? Peaking coal stations? What about prolonged cloudy periods like winter in the northeast brings? Any storage (batteries increase costs, decrease efficiencies)? Inverters are good, but also have losses.
I ran the numbers with current technology for Rochester, NY (gotta do something on that Thruway) following their city council/mayor's proposal to put City Hall on solar with one of the local companies. At 1% interest rate, the payback period for first-cost equipment (neglect installation, O&M, refurbishment, etc.) was 104 years. Higher interest rates or inclusion of reasonable costs never resulted in payback.
Ned
The primary reason Governments DO NOT want folks generating their own energy is YOU CANT TAX IT easily. Why cut your own throat?
They don't want you growing your own food. Owning you own land etc etc. The industrial revolution was as much about co-dependancy as it was about "progress".
I have carefully considered a Solar system designed to be capable of triple my current electrical consumption. I have carefully priced it down to the nearest thousand dollars of cost to buy, install and use it. I considered the cost of getting my utlilty to accept excess electricity and pay me a check each month over and beyond what I use.
Now for assumption I see the Solar cost 30K for system. Over 25 years by monthly payments (Yeesh...) it is more expensive than sucking juice off the existing grid which is fed by nuke, hydro, coal at this time. If that stupid cap and trade passes, I will probably drop in the solar and the grid be damned.
Geo thermal works. I love it. But I have no idea what it will cost to drill that far down and install the piping. Hell, my water comes from about 400 feet down and whatever else belongs to mineral rights under my feet on my own home and lands.
That alone should allow me to pull whatever it is down there to run the place free from the grid all together.
But no. Someone somewhere in the Government will find a way to make it so that I will have to pay money each month to keep the damn service running.
OY!
Agreed on the cost. When I first ran the numbers it was clear that placing the money for the system into a bank account gave me an interest payment far greater than my electric bill.
But I suggest that is not the issue.
I suggest it's the intentional killing of the tech which serves to keep the price up. For example the unneeded extra cost burdens the electric company forces on such systems to try to kill them off. However the price is still falling. And more importantly, if made a national priority, the price would come down dramatically so a 10 year payback would easily be possible. And the payback will continue to reduce from there.
And that is the real key here, keeping the price up versus motivating increased use to drive prices down. And that's precisely why the $140 barrel oil provoked massive alt energy build out as the alt energy costs had been comming down to a "dangerious" level to motivate crossover.
So if those that can afford it installed a unit as an investment of their independence, I'd suggest the tipping point would be acheived. Similar to YouTube "proving" the validity of electric cars.
And in fact there is a silicon on metal technology in commercialization but only being sold on large project basis and not for home use. The elimination of the silicon wafer, using a metal substrate instead, dramatically reduces costs. In other words the residential market does not really know what the true cost currently is. Many other advances exist as well.
All these advancements would not be occuring if the economics I stated were not real. As hard as the oil companies and electric companies are trying to stop progress, they are still losing the incremental battle.
That big old nuclear inferno in the sky, aka Mother Nature, beats all the other options. She's just waiting for the curruption to end and give us all the energy we need.
As for the cost of Geothermal, the cost is low. If it's possible in your area, just call a well driller and if they don't to the installs they can get you in touch with someone who can. I know someone that when this route, payback was at about the 10 year range. But it's very location sensitive. Also depending on your property size, the tubing can be installed horizontal or vertical. Small property you go stright down. Large property, you can so shallow and out for a long straight shot. In fact many commercial installations use horizontal installs under parking lots, in effect using the black surface to collect heat from the sun and lessoning the cost given the work allready being do in place the parking lot.
mit has a great study which basically states that geothermal is the way to go.
http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2007/geothermal.html (look for the pdf)
Funny how such a credible source gets passed over (not trying to be sarcastic; I know, I know, Ben and Larry have advance economic degrees from MIT...thankfully they are the exceptions to the rule.)
the only problem currently, with geothermal, is the fracturing, they do, in seismically active areas. compressed natural gas,CNG ,is currently way under utilized. ethanol, a complete waste. fuel cell technology a joke. regional bio-diesel production is feasible, especially in petro deficient areas. photo-voltaic has limitations, but is very simple, and durable. big projects are a bust, but point of use systems,have many benefits.we are so conditioned, to be wasteful, that we not only take it for granted, we mostly look for solutions that will allow perpetuation, of inefecient usage. IMO easy to see addiction in others, hard to see in ourselves
Waiting for that Micheal guy to post here and start quoting Glenn Beck about how Geothermal is a conspiracy by Obama to enslave America...
quoting glen beck, is definitely a credibility killer,
Shows what you know idiot, if you actually read Sara Palin's book you would know that geothermal really is a conspiracy by liberal elites. THEY want to drill down to the center of the earth so that satan can escape his imprisonment there.
My eyes are finally open, damm those liberal elites :P
It's not just large scale geothermal that is underutilized. In most areas of the country, a residential geoexchange system can be installed that pays for itself in 3-5 years. Since most home energy usage goes to heating and cooling, geoexchange systems can reduce your utility bill bills by over 50%. It's basically like owning your own power company. From an engineering perspective I like the direct exchange systems such as http://www.earthlinked.com/residential
Never a free lunch, folks ... "Quake Threat Leads Swiss to Close Geothermal Project"
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/11/science/earth/11basel.html
Note also, it isn't permanent. California's "Geysers" facility, the USA's largest hot rock geo plant, started out at 2000MMW. Today it's producing about 750MMW - the rocks .. cool off!
Everyone loves EGS until there's increased seismic activity
http://bit.ly/7ClDAt
If nuclear takes off in a big way then I think stuff like wind, solar and geo will get swamped.
Yucca Mountain turns out not to be the storage for spent uranium it was supposed to be:
http://www.ivaw.org/dufactsheet
http://www.duiraq.org/
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/1506151.stm
http://www.gulfwarvets.com/du.htm
Just Google:
depleted uranium in iraq
And find the links yourself, I found 399,000 results.
Also research Yucca Mountain and Uranium waste and waste storage. You'll see the problem of waste storgae somehow lessoned dramatically at the same time as the Iraq war started ... And we're all breathing it now, all of us.
Half life of that munitions dust floating around our atmosphere is 4.5 billion years:
http://www.wired.com/techbiz/media/news/2006/08/71585
Also note the last time I made a post about depleted uranium (DU) it was trivial to find a decent souce that listed it's half life. This time it was very hard. The "internet editors" seem to be working hard to make this fact go away once the alt media started talking about it while main stream media ignores it.
Has anyone else here noticed tonight that alot of the LINKS people have posted are taken DOWN.
we thought napalm and land mines were bad, this stuff is so horrible because it will be contaminating so many now and it lingers and infests our atmosphere...25 years from now this will be well known as a huge crime, but of course by then this stuff will be spread globally.
#160887: internet editors, No that can't be so, not in the US, UK, or EU!
Google, Yahoo and Bing only cooperate with fascists, dictatorships, oligarchies, theocracies, and anthropomorphic global warming technocrrats!
#160887: internet editors, No that can't be so, not in the US, UK, or EU!
Google, Yahoo and Bing only cooperate with fascists, dictatorships, oligarchies, theocracies, and anthropomorphic global warming technocrrats!
Just found this as well:
"‘Nuclear Waste? What Nuclear Waste?’ Obama Shuts Down Yucca Moutain"
http://proliferationpress.com/2009/03/13/nuclear-waste-what-nuclear-wast...
And again, main stream media never puts out that this problem has been solved by the munitions we're sending to, and using in, the middle east.
The US gov has no interest in a clean environment. Not when commercial interests can convert waste it must pay to dispose of into "useful products" people will purchase and dispose of for the source of that waste.
The truth is the Earth is going through rapid climate change. It is also going through an extinction event.
Until makind realizes that on a human time scale that the Earth, and this solar system, are essentially infinite dynamos; then our own fate as a species will continue to be brutally finite.
Do you know what Westinghouse did to Tesla's tower?
The powers that be do not want infinite. Infinite is un regulatable.
The energy this dynamo we live on, and its energy, is the inheritance of all peoples. We let money creators, fabricators, and manipulators spout their rubbish that energy is limited, thus demand, thus cost, thus work for it bitch.
Unlimited energy only makes sense if you use cents not sense. We have the labor and science to build an unlimited energy world, but the will?
I believe there is enough bounty of resources and energy on this world for every breathing creature and plant. More even.
Death to the middle man, and his wars, and lies, and his markets, and compound interest, and filth, and tax, and police state drug wars, and the propaganda. Fuck them all. The meek shalll inherit the Earth because they just stop caring about alll the utter bullshit that adds up and composes modern life in America today.
By the way, cubicle hell is waiting for you on a frosty Monday morning; have a good weekend.
freedoms just another word, for nothin left to lose. meek is not so bad fast breeder reactors, can use nuclear waste for fuel. uranium is in short supply, probably, because most of it has gone into weapons. maybe they can use yucca mtn. to store all that sequestered carbon. another well planned, and executed government project.
Google:
Climategate
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870434240457457668321672379...
http://www.canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/17202
And you all thought we were just being attacked and enslaved via the finanical markets.
It's a lot bigger than that folks ...
I never said that the climate changes weren't being used for political and economic gain by interested parties, in fact, I thought it was a given.
I'm sorry, that did not come out as intended.
I hope u all read this from newest to oldest like I do, I would just like to point out that this is the most on subject discussion that I have ever witnessed on this site.
No one is off topic, no bickering, no personal attacks, just the best opinions that we each have on the subject.
Good to be here fellow ZH'r..ss
agreed...thank u all for sharing with civility. maybe the answers to our problems are not contained in the answers themselves, but in the way that we go about finding the answers.
>maybe the answers to our problems are not
>contained in the answers themselves, but
>in the way that we go about finding the
>answers.
Exactly
http://shewhomeasures.com
wow, what an amazing little short...this could be the ZH theme film.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/12/science/earth/12quake.html
maybe not so good.
Geez, I suprised nobody mentioned Google's $10 Million investment in Geothermal.
http://www.google.org/egs/
here in Australia a geothermal group worth keeping on your respective radars is Geodynamics Limited - stock code GDY on our board at www.asx.com.au
You will see from recent announcements that the technology is not without it's teething problems, simply due to the depths involved, which make it very difficulty to easily observe and understand the structure of target zones - as one recent drilling exercise showed, one missing piece of information with respect to the underlying structure can mean having to start all over again - which means re-engineering alot as you go along.
But outfits like GDY have gained much government support here due to the advanced nature of the work undertaken, and particularly because if they succeed, then much of Australia's electrical generation requirements could be taken care of - conversely GDY could become one big money pit that goes nowhere - presently though, the rewards are too great to ignore, thus the funding continues
My advice - you just have to keep an eye on a few like this one down here in Aus - if she blows the right way, then she'll be off to the moon
good luck
Soros Wants Poorer Nations To Take On Green Debt
http://www.infowars.com/climate-colonialism-soros-wants-poorer-nations-t...
if you look closely, it seems that the globalists are having a little tiff between themselves: World Bank vs. IMF.
I did some work for a guy who is a pioneer in developing geothermal. He bought a few hundred acres with a small lake on it, built a large home, and wired it with the best technology available. He put a series of tubing into the lake to extract it's stored heat. You don't need to drill down. Even in the north here, you can extract the stored heat that's just four feet below the frostline. Once the geothermal system is installed, the cost will be paid back within ten years, less if you get government subsidies. His frustration is with the inertia of getting people to accept this 'free' abundant energy source. As an aside, he predicts the economy will spasm with the inevitable higher oil price which is why he built himself a self sustaining compound in the middle of a forest.
did the pioneer's self-sustaining compound come with a free tin foil hat?
Forbes put together a nice slide show that includes geothermal
http://www.forbes.com/2008/07/09/energy-solar-green-biz-energy-cx_bp_0709atlas_slide.html?thisSpeed=30000
really...?
Geothermal Project in California Is Shut Down
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/12/science/earth/12quake.html?_r=1
Marin Katusa & Marc Bustin, Editors of Casey's Energy Report should be thoroughly embarrassed by their lack of fundamental understandings of energy systems and economics. Here are two examples of gross misrepresentation of this subject:
With this statement, "Once such a plant is built, it will be tapped into a virtually limitless supply of energy that’s available without cost..." they demonstrate a total lack of understanding of the difference between fixed and variable costs, particularly when it comes to the extraordinarily high production cost associated with geothermal systems.
But, wait there's more. They go on to say, "Utility companies, and anybody buying power from them, have to consider load factor..." What a joke, these guys don't know the difference between capacity factor and load factor!
This looks like another bunch of energy-newbies trying to impress the public with what they know... which, in fact, isn't much.
Geothermal is a proven resource and economically viable. I have several years experience in construction of new facilities and upgrades in existing facilities in northern Nevada and California. They have been profitably producing power for many years here on a small but not insignificant scale, and are now at a point where the improvements in technology are imo at a point that geothermal will begin to make s significant contribution to the power grid in this area. Last year Ormat installed a new turbine design in an existing facility in Reno (see the video in the link) that almost doubled the output of the plant from 12 to >20 megawatts from this one improvement.
I am not a tree hugger by any means and consider most eco-friendly schemes as just that, pie in the sky dreams that are not economically realistic fantasies which fail to consider the bigger picture (electric cars that you just plug into the wall and no more pollution from SUV's? Like the coal required to generate that electricity has no impact?) So I'm as skeptical as anyone about green solutions. However, the technique used by Ormat uses isopentane as a vapor to drive the turbines to produce electricity in a system that works in reverse of a refrigeration system. Liquid isopentane is contained in a loop where it is heated with ground water (sub-steam temperatures) and released into a plenum which causes a phase change from liquid into a vapor. The resulting increase in pressure is sufficient to drive a turbine, after which it is condensed back to a liquid and cycles though the loop again, so there is no discharge of waste by-products. Hot groundwater is cycled from wells though heat exchangers that energize the isopentane and then is injected back into the ground to be reheated in the subsurface. So the whole process is closed to the atmosephere and has virtually no impact on air quality. Eco-friendly and makes a buck too.
Of course nothing is without a downside. The process requires above ground pipelines for the water extraction/injection circuits which the squeamish object to as visual pollution, as well as the condensation towers for the isopentane. Other problems can include the corrosive components frequently found in hydrothermal waters which can shorten operational life expectancies before replacement is required. A previous poster cited Calpine as a failure, which in the installation I worked in at Clear Lake, CA. was due to a depletion of the groundwater resource that resulted from its been a steam generator. The constant loss as the water vapor was discharged to the atmosphere, while being non toxic, did in the end result in a severely reduced output. The closed system that Ormat uses does not face that problem. They have however tried to exceed the thermal output of the subsurface rocks and lowered the temperature enough to temporarily lose production. So the output for a given area does have limits.
Imo geothermal represents one of the few realistic methods of green energy production.
http://www.ormat.com/
You want to know what the real energy of the future is?
Fusion
All of this renewable BS is just filling the gap until ITER comes online and fusion power becomes commercialized.
FYI the "future" is +30 years.
I think the future of fusion lies more with these guys:
http://emc2fusion.org/
http://www.generalfusion.com/
ITER is too political, too complex. To paraphrase, "The core of the Sun doesn't look like a Tokamak"...
Every time someone starts rambling about geo-thermal I think of this great idea!
www.imdb.com/title/tt0059065/
Seems just as realistic as Al Gore!
I live in Canada - you know where the Eskimos live? Yeah that's right the place where they build little round snow houses and eat seal.
yup that's us.
Now I have geothermal in my house. Simple Canadian math
heating oil in the winter - $500 a month
Geothermal installation - $15K
New monthly heating bills - $60 bucks a month
Priceless.
Now if they could only solve the one bad thing about solar power
NIGHT