This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: How An Equity Market Prices In Recession

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Tony Pallotta of Macro Story

How An Equity Market Prices In Recession

I'm not going to even begin to try and make sense out of today's market. Watching fires burn and teargas fired in Greece, 100 pip moves in the EUR/USD in minutes and computer algos tripping over each other was surreal beyond words. This market right now is a lottery.  Calling equities forward looking or a pricing mechanism is beyond ridiculous.

It is during noisy times like these that investors must step back and keep things in perspective. Trading on days like today requires little skill and a lot of luck. When I step back I see a deteriorating economy and an equity market trying to understand what to do.  Do they "price in" a soft patch or a full blow recession. Market participants are told it is in fact a soft patch.  The slightest hint of positive data reinforces those views.

Using history as an example I want to share with you the 2007 "soft patch" and how equity markets priced in that economic headwind as well.

Below are a few notable quotes discussing the soft patch which in fact was a recession that began in December 2007 with Q1 2008 the first full quarter of contraction at minus 0.7% from the plus 2.9% in Q4 2007 (my how fast things can change).

  • "We anticipate a soft patch in the middle of next year." - Morgan Stanley December 6, 2007
  • "The economy is in a soft patch right now" - Mike Moran of Daiwa Securities December 23, 2007
  • "Meanwhile, the Goldilocks economy remains alive and well." -  Larry Kudlow January 4, 2008
  • “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession. It is however forecasting slow growth” - Fed Chairman Bernanke January 10, 2008

The following side by side comparison of the current SPX and that of December 2007 is messy but "bear" with me as the similarities are rather interesting. This is not an Elliott Wave analysis either. Notice the relationship among Point A, B, C, D and E on both charts.


The two highs of the topping pattern are Point A and C with  C being slightly above A (imagine those technicians declaring a breakout).

The two lows of the corrections are Point B and D with D being slightly above B (imagine those technicians saying we put in a higher low thus bullish for price).

Point E is the question in terms of where we are now.  Using the current trend lines off the 1,370 high SPX 1,320 would be the modern day Point E.

Equity markets struggled in 2007 to price in the recession efficiently and were only two months forward looking.  In this highly leveraged, exuberant and low cash market why are we to think 2011 is any different?

As a reminder of a few other similarities, here you go.

  • We have leverage back at pre Lehman Brother levels
  • We have record low cash levels at mutual funds
  • We have the end of QE2
  • We have forecasts for contraction in Friday's ISM manufacturing based on actual regional manufacturing data for June

 

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Highrev
Highrev's picture

Tyler, I think someone else mentioned it earlier, but could you slow down a bit?

;-)

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Raymond K Hassel
Raymond K Hassel's picture

Slow down?  I would have requested the opposite, except it would be rude to ask.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:47 | Link to Comment FunkyMonkeyBoy
FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

For f**k sake Tyler, pull your finger out... more updates please, this site is too static. 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:18 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

LOL...

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 20:09 | Link to Comment The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

That is a terrible idea! Although I would like to say that Tyler(s) have been outputing extrodinarily high quality work at a stunning pace of late! ON A RAMPAGE FOR JUSTICE! 

On a side note: I was saying to a friend of mine that I need to learn as much from Tyler as I can becuase I don't think he will be around after the crisis. He is the kind of person that appears in a time of crisis and fights for us all. The quality and accesibility of this info to my mind cannot simply be a business plan, but there must be a passion behind it that is driven by these times.  Pay attention while you can, if you can aquire a good portion of Tylers skill you will never want for money again in your life, and then you too might be free enough to pick something worthwhile to fight for besides your next paycheck. That is what I hope for!

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 23:17 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Insert Editorial Comment: I am glad to see you back, Macro Story. We beat ya up pretty badly (and maybe unjustly) on that recent blog. No hard feelings. Just kinda caught a nerve. As Aristotle is reputed to have said, "An educated person can entertain an idea without endorsing it." I guess we go back to school for more education some times.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 00:16 | Link to Comment MacroStory
MacroStory's picture

I knew what kind of kids played in this sandbox before I entered it so no harm done.  This group is nothing compared to the unions I used to work "with" in my old corporate days.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment Thomas
Thomas's picture

Editorial Addendum: First I miss the math problem (sheesh) and then I double post. It's back to school on the short bus.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 06:27 | Link to Comment zKeyserSoze
zKeyserSoze's picture
last week
David Bloom: 'Is There a Bigger Armageddon Out There?'

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43505730/David_Bloom_Is_There_a_Bigger_Armageddon_Out_There

this week, dollar's in trouble at 5.20 min

Guest Host David Bloom

http://classic.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=2030678890&play=1

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:41 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

One more day, that should do it.  Just one.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

LOFL.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:43 | Link to Comment There is No Spoon
There is No Spoon's picture

How An Equity Market Prices In Recession - it doesn't. In the past, conventional wisdom dictated that the stock market anticipates six months ahead. In the chart it's clear that the market didn't even anticipate two months ahead - it was in the middle of its range when the recession began.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 21:57 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i'd agree with that ...the US property sector topped in 2006 then turned down.. the US stock markets didn't really nose-dive hard until Q3 2008 so i fail to see how self-annointed 'experts' like Rob Prechter (beaten hands down by a coin toss at market predictions) call the stock indexes "lead indicators". Surely we should look at all sectors for signs of tiring and collapse?

Prechter says the Indexes are "a process" of a number of sectors topping at slightly different times ...so we can safely say the Indexes are an averaging indicator, not a lead indicator, and pretty 'slow to show' given guidence in housing 2 years earlier

the other point Prechter makes is the Indexes are overly positive measures because bankrupt companies get taken out of the Indexes and replaced with still solvent ones so they do not reflect the actual carnage 'dropping' big negative numbers. So the Indexes are a rose-tinted spectecles, much delayed averaging unit of measure, not an accurate sharp as a tac lead indicator then!!

And given the Nasdaq has now retraced 100% of its 2008 to March 2009 decline you have to ask what fuking planet are these Indexes on given the shit-state of everything? Probably coming from the same planet, Uranus, that Prechter and his Elliott Wave muppets come from

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:47 | Link to Comment statlawyer
statlawyer's picture

looks like someone else has spotted the H&S about to finish off :)   cheers-

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:54 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

The market is starting to price in the running out of ideas.

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

LOL!  How do you price anything when it is totally corrupt and manipulated everywhere.

JPM, GS, The Fed, BS fake Chinese IPOs, HFT, Arbs, the options and futures exchanges.  The whole thing is a totally corrupt fiat joke.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Jimbo Jones
Jimbo Jones's picture

SH and RWM is how I priced it in... just hope I can find a bigger sucker down the road.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 20:21 | Link to Comment The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

I noticed one way you can price it in.  You see point D on the graph? In 2007 it dipped below the 200 DMA, this time it did not. At first this worried me, then I remembered I had watched the market all day during those times. There were several days where the market was obviously propped up over 780 in the RUT.  This 2011 market would have done the same without manipulation. If you want to price in manipulation I think you can mark those reflection points above the 200DMA as the extent of the ability to manipulate.  It's important to note they can't just pull a number out of their ass and make it happen, they need the market to help them, ie the 200 DMA line. Also you can price in manipulation by the amount of time it works. If for instance JPM whacks silver and sends it straight down with shorts, and it pops right back up to the previous level, they'll have a LOT of shorts they couldn't clear, and they'll back off until they can make a market whackjob stick. Rule of thumb is if they can't get it to hold 50% of the move they falsely make they'll usually back off, at least in the PM markets. All you have to do is remember where they want the manipulation to drive the market and watch out for levels they can drive one way or another and the market will allow them to hold.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:00 | Link to Comment Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

lol

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 17:55 | Link to Comment mr. mirbach
mr. mirbach's picture

despite the cyclical nature of history 'tis a pity lessons from the past are never learned. "This time it's different!"

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:02 | Link to Comment tallen
tallen's picture

It's all transitory.

/s

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

The dollar is not a safe haven anymore.  Quite bitching and get used to it.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:03 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Wait 3 hrs and try reposting that.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Economies have been mired in depression for decades, the dollar has lost its ass to inflation to the end sum, and you want me to do what now?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:06 | Link to Comment banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

The withholding tax is back to 1 yr ago, the WLI (ECRI) has been down for how many weeks? 6? The market was all windowdressing, it's not pricing in any caution plus the Mafia is unloading the Cream of the Shit IPOs, if that isn't the end, don't know what is.

Watch initial claims, ISM and next weeks jobs# will be in the toilet.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:04 | Link to Comment foxman
foxman's picture

When was the last time the FED forecast a recession?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 20:23 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

they never have and always point the finger of blame elsewhere.

Listen to Ron Paul school Benocide on the Great Depression. Ben is a total buffoon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dv6rQ0U01Yc

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:05 | Link to Comment rocker
rocker's picture

Seems to be pretty good stuff.  But, it sure would be nice to see time lines indicated. Please !!!

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

Think it's a weekly chart.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:03 | Link to Comment MacroStory
MacroStory's picture

It's a daily chart with the 07 high in October and the current high May. I zoomed in so and cropped out the dates because I already had too much on them. Sorry!

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Bob
Bob's picture

The symmetry of the two charts is remarkable.  I may need to schedule an eye appointment after that one.  Wow. 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:12 | Link to Comment urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Fuck it.  FAS: ALL IN

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:16 | Link to Comment mynhair
mynhair's picture

That's the spirit!  After all, it is a casino.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:26 | Link to Comment banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

The PDs buy their own bank stocks to windowdress end of Q, easiest way to move market. You've got a big old gap, and $26 is resistance, good luck if you don't take profits fast enough.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAS&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p02077290925

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:43 | Link to Comment urbanelf
urbanelf's picture

Oh, I'm fast, alright.

Watch this...

... didn't see it, did you?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 23:44 | Link to Comment The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

So its the Elves that run the HFT! I should have known after Alex Jones explained that bit about DMT elves.... That actually explains a lot!

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:09 | Link to Comment zorba THE GREEK
zorba THE GREEK's picture

 We have all the same problems now that we had in 2007, only now they are

 bigger because we didn't address them before. We also have more problems

 now, like Europe meltdown and Mideast uprising and China looks more shaky now.

 We also didn't have Japan's nuclear crisis, which to date hasn't been resolved.

 We are now facing a global financial crisis which is larger and  far reaching

 than that of 2007 and due to massive government debt and insolvent banking

 system, we are in a weaker position to defend the economy and prevent a total

 meltdown.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:58 | Link to Comment Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

Iambic pentameter or cut and paste?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:13 | Link to Comment banksterhater
Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:29 | Link to Comment boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

This is much worse than 1974 and different in so many ways.  For one thing they were not churning billions of shares a day back then with front running computer programs. 

The "market" isn't pricing anything at all, GS, JPM, Citi, a few others, along with FRBNY and Treasury are doing all the pricing.  But what does it matter anymore?  Without a stable dollar nobody could possibly price anything with any assurance of being right, or close to right, and in those circumstance one just prices higher and hopes for the best. 

I have not heard much lately about what market shorts are up to, or disclosures on insider trades, anyone got the quick dirt on those?  Retirement can really slow a guy down.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 07:09 | Link to Comment Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

That article assumes that inflation figures are accurate. We all know those figures are as cooked as an Irish stew.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment YesWeKahn
YesWeKahn's picture

Too much money has no where to park. This is the only way.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:27 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Too much worthless fiat money.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Zeilschip
Zeilschip's picture

Let's see what happens if the S&P ends up on July 1st...

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 22:23 | Link to Comment carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Meredith Whitney: Beware July 1

... she warned that July 1 is going to be a key date for the muni market, because that’s when new state budgets are going to take effect, slashing aid to many localities.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:22 | Link to Comment GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

"Low cash market"

^A good three word summation of the equity market.

 


Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:27 | Link to Comment PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

<<When I step back I see a deteriorating economy and an equity market trying to understand what to do.>>

I am moving more into cash (and gld  slv) every day. "stocks" are super risky right now.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:35 | Link to Comment banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

GLD is a buck from resistance, volume in crapper on this move, this will be going MUCH lower. Good luck. Silver is worse, it will go back to 28.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p45334350935

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Solarman
Solarman's picture

With cash, make sure it is not in a European money market fund.  You won't know unless you ask, GLD and SLV are derivative vehicles with a promise to pay.  If their sponsors have financial difficulty you lose.  So be careful.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:54 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Pulau:  I very very strongly suggest you start putting Harvey Organ on your daily reading list;  he usually posts before 7:30pm est.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:37 | Link to Comment mikmid
mikmid's picture

The S$P is running on vapor and low volume dreaming of fundamentally changing America with the jerks in Washington and pols around the world in charge. Skynet will fail, the algo will go nuts and the shit will fly. Central planning does not work in single countries, it will fail big on this new world wide attempt.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 21:50 | Link to Comment mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

'scuse me whilst I shed a tear...

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:59 | Link to Comment Stares straight...
Stares straight ahead's picture

deleted

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:04 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

Well, this is scary, good post.

Dollar is a wreck here, at lows of the day. Way to go Timmaaayyyy.

All the pieces are in place. Just wait for the timing. Do not anticipate. Once it starts there will be plenty of time to feed the bear. Right now you still have The Bernank ready to destroy.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Greeny
Greeny's picture

"How An Equity Market Prices In Recession"

 

What Recession, you idiots? Are you referring to one in 2008? What's the beef here? Stop BS doomster scenarios... Look at the charts and buy valuable Stocks, Recession my A$$, clowns..

 

All of this:

"

 

  • We have leverage back at pre Lehman Brother levels
  • We have record low cash levels at mutual funds
  • We have the end of QE2
  • We have forecasts for contraction in Friday's ISM manufacturing based on actual regional manufacturing data for June

 "

 

Complete horseshit..

 

Right, "end of QE2" did you even feel it? Fed keep doing

its work and swap lines still open till August 2012..

Go back to sleep.. Let's talkin in 1 year, when DOW hits 15k.

 

 

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 23:48 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

Do you have ONE SINGLE fact to back up your arguments?  No, you don't.  So buzz off.  Nobody cares about your opinions.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Greeny
Greeny's picture

I can draw you 100 chart scenarios showing different outlook.

Keep shorting, I think you already feel the pain, junkies..

We'll have down day on Friday, as usual, don't call me here

on the facts.. I'm betting against all of you, sorry, wrong

timing, you lose. Wait another 5 years or so... And keep

whining harder, that's helps the Markets go even higher.. :)))

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:33 | Link to Comment Vic Vinegar
Vic Vinegar's picture

Are you saying that complaining on Zero Hedge is responsible for lifting the Dow since Mar '09...interesting theory...I kind of like it.

Anyhow you are pretty much correct with what you say.  But at times it is fun to read the comments section here, a/k/a The Wailing Wall.  And fun at times to partake in said wailing.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 19:42 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The recession is over.

Recovery is coming eventually.  Stocks are already moving up based on that premise.

If this was like 2007, you would not have consumer growth stocks hitting new world record, lifetime highs.  They would have already cracked and headed down breaking support lines left and right, and the only thing holding the market up during the early stage bear market would be defensive and consumer staple stocks.

Right now, consumer staples, utilities, and growth stocks are all booming.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 20:00 | Link to Comment d00daa
d00daa's picture

"The market isn't pricing in QE3, the market is pricing in an economic boom, led by the US consumer." - RobotTrader

"The recession is over." - RobotTrader

 

Immortalized forever.

 

"Recovery is coming eventually." - RobotTrader

Things will never fully recover until The Great Reset.  Math always wins.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 20:54 | Link to Comment Haywood Yablomi
Haywood Yablomi's picture

"If this was like 2007, you would not have consumer growth stocks hitting new world record, lifetime highs."

Strong argument.  Remember October 2007?  If you're going to troll, don't forget the hot  pics.  They at least provide some redeeming quality to your posts.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 23:54 | Link to Comment The Fonz
The Fonz's picture

That is a good story, makes  a lot of sence. I wonder how to determine if companies are still buying their own stocks, or to get some sort of indicator out of those cash flows by tracking them. I'd esp like to know when those programs mostly stop and if they are clearing the purchasing to some central group managing it. For instance lets say you want to keep SBUX stock up, so you find out about a group of people who will protect your stock and the whole stock market with it. You allocate a certain sum to buybacks, this group then uses your sum only for your stock along points of resistance for the overall market or upon inflection points where they can use their skills to get the best bang for your buck, buying at low inflection points, getting a fairly good price and stabalizing the market as well.  This peice of guesswork is pretty far out there, just a wild fancy most likely.

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 23:15 | Link to Comment digilante
digilante's picture

Harumph! The sky is falling, the sky is falling! These are all familiar themes at Zero Edge and elsewhere. I suspect the surprises will be to the upside...

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 23:50 | Link to Comment mkkby
mkkby's picture

Who gives a shit what you suspect.  Can you back that up with facts?  No?  Then fuck off.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 07:18 | Link to Comment Bob Paulson
Bob Paulson's picture

You have to admit the 'Zero Edge' is funny though.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 00:32 | Link to Comment dcb
dcb's picture

good to see someone besides myself calling 1320 point as being crucial

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 04:51 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 those 2 spx charts do have stark comparisons.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 05:13 | Link to Comment SAME AS IT EVER WAS
SAME AS IT EVER WAS's picture

Ahh Bullshit! I knew last friday I should have bought the fucking dip! I'll make a bold call- s&p 1650-1700 with in a year at most, WHY?, because that would seem impossible.

Thu, 06/30/2011 - 11:34 | Link to Comment Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

Here's another bold call.

Monkey's will fly out of your butt, WHY?, because that would seem impossible.

 

On another note, do you think before you type?  Do you have to focus on breathing to keep from dropping dead?

 

Lastly, I went short at 1320, suck it.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!