Guest Post: How You Too Can Be As Good (Or Bad) As Goldman In Predicting Non-Farm Payrolls
Submitted by James Freeze
It doesn’t take a fancy European name like Jan or a PhD to take the guesswork out of the
monthly Non-Farm Payroll data.
A simple 3-factor model can predict payrolls within spittin’ distance of the actual post-revision result. The monthly average of the 4-week moving average of initial unemployment claims (sa), the monthly average of the insured unemployment rate (sa), and the %Y/Y change in employee withholding taxes.
Perhaps the recent trend of improvement in payrolls is stimulus related and will reverse course, perhaps not, but the relevant data is provided each week for the world to make that
And with the average range of bond contracts and spoos expanding by 34% and 30%,
respectively, with each release, it can be very profitable to get it right… that’s all I got to say about that.
Relevant data set support: