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Guest Post: If Spin Were Reality - We'd Have A Recovery

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Nomi Prins

If Spin Were Reality - We'd Have A Recovery

Wouldn't it be awesome if spin could
actually solve problems? Then, you could just say the word 'recovery'
every time you gave a speech, ignore any negative data, assume the
markets are up because of general economic health and not a mass
infusion of cheap money, and it would be so.

It wouldn't matter that New Home Sales are at their lowest rate since reporting began in 1962.

It would be fine that Existing Home Sales (the number of completed transactions) were down 9.6% over the month, and 2.8% since last year.

It would be cool that Pending Home Sales were down 2.8% over the month, and 1.5% over the year.

It would be a symptom of recovery that
the average Sale Price for non-foreclosed homes is $246,358  - below
2003 levels, and for foreclosed homes, is $169,965.

It would just be a coincidence that 39% of homes sold in February were distressed (sold at a discount), many of those to investors, not to end-home-dwellers, up from 35% last February.

It wouldn't have anything to do with
people's housing situations, that Realty Trac, 'the leading foreclosure
online market' maintains a top ten 'Hot' foreclosure property states
list. (Ohio leads the list, with a 43% 'foreclosure savings' rate for
'investing' in a foreclosed property vs. paying up for a non-foreclosed
one.)

You could be the Treasury department,
and announce an 'orderly' sell program to get rid of 'up to' $10 billion
per month of your $142 billion agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed
securities portfolio (and yes, you would still be backing the agencies
guaranteeing those securities which has nothing to do with propping up
their value) - the one you bought as part of a multi-trillion financial
market bailout, ur 'stabilization' program - when you became a hedge
fund on behalf of the taxpayers. You wouldn't have to mention, ANYWHERE,
IN ANY SPEECH, ANYTHING about the $4.1 trillion of Treasury and other government debt you issued since September, 2008, because, what's $4 trillion when you're stabilizing the market - on behalf of the taxpayers.

You could be a mega bank, with a CEO that is also a Class-A NY Fed director (or Jamie Dimon) and impress your new soon-to-be-higher-dividend-receiving
shareholders, with your ability to reduce loan loss provisions, and it
wouldn't have anything to do with accounting rules that don't require
you to acknowledge the tremendous gap between the notional value of your
loans, and their underlying collateral (the real home values) or Fed
support.

You could be a mega bank (as say,
above), pass your second stress test with flying colors, be assured by
the Fed that no details of the test will be disclosed, and act coy about whether you want to disclose them or not. 

You could be the Fed Chairman, and disregard the idea of inflation, because if you don't count the cost of food or gas
or health insurance or clothes or anything else sporting a price that
has inflated, there is no inflation, and you can carry on buying,
holding or subsidizing, the various forms of debt sustaining the
'recovery'.

Well, actually, if you looked at the
housing market or the financial condition of the majority of borrowers,
there wouldn't be any inflation. Maybe spin is reality. But, let me know
if I'm missing something.

 


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Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:14 | Link to Comment Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

the president loves america, knows what he's doing, and was born in this country.  how's that for spin?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:35 | Link to Comment Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Honey! The washing machine is stuck on the spin cycle again!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 07:58 | Link to Comment doggings
doggings's picture

you mean the TV I think?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:09 | Link to Comment YouBetYourLife
YouBetYourLife's picture

That's more than a 360.  A 1080 at least!

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:23 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

you can't believe anything. they try to manipulate opinions all the time. and i certainly don't trust the goog. try this -- if you have google suggestion/autocomplete on your browser, type in these 3 words. you will get suggested web sites, up until you finish the m in scam, then the screen goes blank and forces you to press enter. the three words:  goldman sachs scam

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 03:52 | Link to Comment emsolý
emsolý's picture

but it works with 'scum', 'scandal', and, who woulda thought, 'squid'

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 00:14 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

A 1099!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 15:50 | Link to Comment angela03
angela03's picture

C'mon man, even the most extreme right, nazi propagandist realizes Obama is a US citizen. I'm no fan of the man but the outright stupidity has got to stop.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:13 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

But, but, but, but....  Isn't that the way it....

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

All I know is that I've been unemployed for almost 3 years now and I now realize it's my own fault for not being happy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5um8QWWRvo

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-19th-supermoon-apocal...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:02 | Link to Comment dogismyth
dogismyth's picture

thanks SOT for your insights.  Something useful finally turned up on ZH...whattya know!!

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:15 | Link to Comment FOC 1183
FOC 1183's picture

If IPads were edible

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:16 | Link to Comment doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

'..you spin me right round baby, right round..like a record baby..round round round round "

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:21 | Link to Comment JonTurk
Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:19 | Link to Comment Misean
Misean's picture

You could claim that captured regulators and their inaction will be corrected by more regulations and captured regulators.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:18 | Link to Comment Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

The answer to being in shit up to your eyeballs has always been self delusion. Soon after that you're fucked and you just don't understand why. I'm thinking about developing my own economic delusion index. I'm certain it would be a powerful predictor of delusional growth. Any ideas as to what I should include (apart from the stuff above)?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:33 | Link to Comment whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

 story of my life

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:19 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

let us not forget that 13% of home are empty......homes need constant care and attention....a lot of those homes will burn down....become overrun with mold....have vagrants steal all the copper.....have some hack rent them out to some poor sucker......the list goes on and on...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Amabo Kcarab
Amabo Kcarab's picture

Read this shill-laden piece of brilliantness.

http://www.businessinsider.com/one-sign-the-housing-bust-could-end-soon-...

 

I threw up in my mouth a little.

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:39 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

me too....

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:26 | Link to Comment bigking12345
bigking12345's picture

Bloget's crap is the biggest liberal crap on the internet, can't even use it to pick up your dog shit.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:32 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I've seen many homes in Florida that had black mold growin on the studs and concrete (I guess black mold can grow on and consume anything) that they had to be torn down.

I do believe there are 20 million vacant homes in the U.S.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:33 | Link to Comment whoopsing
whoopsing's picture

Rotting away sunshine

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:44 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

you won't even believe what we see in these pools now....frogs, fish, grills....only a matter of time until someone finds a body in one.....should be the next CSI theme....

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:11 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

CSI Infested Swimming Pool
CSI Ring Around the Bathtub
CSI Mouldy Shower Stall
CSI Clogged Commode
CSI Let that Dog Shit in My Yard Again and I'll Break Your Knees
CSI Oh, Yeah?
CSI Yeah, Wahtchu Gonna Do About It, Asshole?
CSI Burn A Cross In Their Front Yard
CSI Rape The Kid's Horse
CSI Set Fire to Their Home
CSI Takes Care of That Problem

And now for a peek at next seasons' premier

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:54 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Chuckles, knuckles. :)

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:22 | Link to Comment umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

Don't look in the pools...

Ia! Ia! Cthulhu fhtagn! Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

   ~^(;,;)^~   

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 00:44 | Link to Comment OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

My neglected pool had TADPOLES in it...and I live in the middle of the mojave desert!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 06:30 | Link to Comment sourgrapesson
sourgrapesson's picture

Freaky - same with my pool and I too live in mojave desert.  Thought wtf are those-and my pool was sparkling clean!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 03:40 | Link to Comment No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

At least 20 million.

Hey Nomi - Why didn't you bash your old employer GS?   Is it becuase they are doing "God's work"?

 

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:16 | Link to Comment Bad Asset
Bad Asset's picture

I secure vacant homes for BoA.  You have no idea how many homes are destroyed by frozen plumbing and eventual mold damage.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:21 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

How can I help?

(and I mean with the black mold and freezing pipes)

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 00:46 | Link to Comment OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

For BofA I'd like to help too...let me know a couple addresses...I have a few extra gallons of kerosene that should knock down that mold problem pretty quick.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

If spinning were a degree, Obsama would have a PHD!

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:23 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

The "Jobless Recovery" Rally

The "New Normal" Rally

The "POMO Rally"

The El-Erian "Sugar High" Rally

Whatever you want to call it, it has been one of the greatest of all time.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

*The "I don't give a damn about my children or grand-children" Rally - glad you enjoyed yourself.

 

 

*fixed

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 00:24 | Link to Comment blunderdog
blunderdog's picture

It's the opposite.  Some of us cared too much about our potential children to ever reproduce on THIS fuckin' rock.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:36 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

It can't be great if it hurt the country as a whole. 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Tells you all you really need to know about robottrader.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:24 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Ah yes, the sugar high, the Vegas binge, the lines on the mirror, the existential crisis, the motorcycle, the mistress...yes, yes...those all end so well...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:58 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

It's over w/o QE3.

So that means QE3 is planned.

Also means onward to hyperinflation.

Ben will apologize :(

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:03 | Link to Comment JonTurk
JonTurk's picture

wow.. reverse indicator robotroll popped up again, another sell signal on the row .. god loves us today

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 06:49 | Link to Comment Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Big rally in Zimbabwe too... How well did that work out?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Deluxe186
Deluxe186's picture

is this a reprint?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:25 | Link to Comment Hook Line and S...
Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

like the man caught with his pants down pumping the bernanks behind...

"wasn't me"

(or is that the other way around?)

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:27 | Link to Comment Natasha Fatale
Natasha Fatale's picture

My favorite spin phrases of late: "Humanitarian Imperialism" and "Political Malpractice" 

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:28 | Link to Comment Concentrated po...
Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

fancy words for "Hope and Change" - joker

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:27 | Link to Comment Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

you mean awesome.  from xtranormal:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAyCdfOXvec

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:01 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

"Police Action" and "Peacekeepers" are time worn favorites.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:30 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

You don't get it. It's not just spin, the Fed created two parallel but divergent universes in response to the crisis: The paper economy, getting giddier and more bloated with 'liquidity' by the minute, and the real economy which is in a deflationary depression, getting paler and more anemic by the minute. That's biflation, baby! Lotsa Luck

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 07:23 | Link to Comment RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

I agree with CE - just like we had the shadow banking system, we now have a 'shadow economy'. The one being shown to us is supposed to be rosy, and the market is reflecting that, but the actual numbers are probably much worse. I keep seeing these weird hiccups in the service economy, where the work suddenly stops as if it were 2008 all over again (I couldn't give work away for free back then, the bunker mentality was so bad). I think the belief by Obama and Bernanke is that spin will carry us over the line, but that only works if the engine restarts, and all I see is this thing stalling.  

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:38 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Fact....We tracked a property in Long Boat Key that was available for short sale....previous owner had 10+ MM in it... they asked  8.9MM for it....it sold for 7.9MM....one month later it is back on the market for $5.9MM..immediate 2MM loss!!! .....funny thing is that a director from the original bank (lender) is now the Managing Member for the LLC holding company that bought it!!!  They are moving this non-performing cluster "F" from one ledger to the next....plus they will have more property taxes on it because the city only had it tax assessed at 2.8MM and they had to pay a crap load of closing cost....btw...we valued the property at 2MM max..is that a recovery you can believe in?.. Anyone know a good investigative reporter in the LBK area?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:14 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

"Anyone know a good investigative reporter in the LBK area?"

I do.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:18 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Well let's put them on this...has to be some fraud going on....at the very least a huge waste of tax payer money

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:59 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

How do you want to get in touch? I know a prominent reporter in WPB who is keenly interested in this topic [fraud]. I agitate mostly but manage to find myself around a lot of Certified Fraud Examiners, Lawyers, etc. Working on a project now..seems the entire family of a certain "Rocket Docket Judge" has secret Real Estate Agencies as well as "[insert judge name here] Family Properties LTD." Networking in the twenty first century... 

Foreclosure Fraud – Economic Injustice Examined

Speaking Through Data

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:23 | Link to Comment FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Are those your sites?   Looks great... We have to at least fight for truth....push back....and try to do something....  you can email me at ed@flusa.com then I can send them  the address, sales info, and new LLC ownership info...thanks for the contact....

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:38 | Link to Comment chunga
chunga's picture

You have mail. We're just building out foreclosurefraud.org. Blood everywhere in the fight for that domain.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:22 | Link to Comment Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

who is he Jeff Skilling ?

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:40 | Link to Comment GlassHammer
GlassHammer's picture

This country runs on self denial and at this point its mostly a survival mechanism. 

You need a certain level of denial in order to believe in dreams.

 

 

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:46 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

And I ride unicorns to deposit my trading profits in the local bank to buy some 5% five year CDs

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:49 | Link to Comment ziggy59
Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

Hey, I clapped my little hands off to keep Tinker Bell from dying.

But, I also grew up and left wishful thinking to the land of make believe.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 21:58 | Link to Comment squexx
squexx's picture

The jooz speak, but Obama's lips move!

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:00 | Link to Comment putbuyer
putbuyer's picture

Watch the movie "Adventures of Power" as it is the only hope we all have. The Fed will kill us all. Buy rural land and grow your own. That all...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:07 | Link to Comment monopoly
monopoly's picture

That was great. But ya know, it is working in mainstream America so far. Keeping spinning till you throw up.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:18 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Losing your job is a new beginning.

Losing your home is a new journey on a new road.

Many, many millions are embarking on a new beginning, new journies on new roads.

BTFD.

I hear guillotines are perfect for slicing watermelons.

I'm looking forward to watermelons on the grass.

I hear the pretty birds chirping and the breeze in the trees; such a lovely day...

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:31 | Link to Comment Bad Asset
Bad Asset's picture

Losing your house?  Just stay in it, the bank could pay your $21k to move out.

 

http://www.dsnews.com/articles/servicers-asked-to-consider-21000-cash-for-keys-option-2011-03-25

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 04:08 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

No, no, way too much equity in it - been one of those responsible damn fools.

Have to hang on and recover the loss in value down the road but if we do a Japan I'll be hobbling on a cane or dead by that time (20-30 years of declines by some predictions).

Oh well, I'm 70% above the purchase price in 1998 so minus inflation and mortgage interest I might just break even.

Get me some land in east Texas with water supply and wild boars and I can get by.  No more debt is the goal; and defending the perimenter with hounds and Mini-14's.

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:32 | Link to Comment velobabe
velobabe's picture

reality is truly a bitch†

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:32 | Link to Comment YouBetYourLife
YouBetYourLife's picture

ZH is like The Alamo of Truth, surrounded by an army of wind-up spinmeisters and journalistic ne'er-do wells. Assaults daily; occasional breaches of the walls. But we gotta fight to the last man. 

I'd cast TD as Davy Crockett, williambonzai7 as Georgie Russell, Cognative Dissonance as Col. Travis, etc.  With a supporting cast of hundreds.

I volunteer to be the riverboat gambler, played by Hans Conrad. WTF.

 

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:30 | Link to Comment Still Life Living
Still Life Living's picture

We should declare success and state that the economy is in full recovery...like Alan Ginsberg and Phil Ochs did when they declared the Vietnam War over in the late 1960s.  Ochs even held public rallys in NYC.

 

(Maybe for 4/1, all the zero hedge stories could be about the strong recovery and how we dodged a real bullet.)

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 22:38 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

If wishes were fishes, we'd all cast nets.

 

Gurney Halleck

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:10 | Link to Comment JohnG
JohnG's picture

Goodbye, and thanks for all the fish.

- The Dolphins

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 00:25 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

If you people were any more unhip, your bums would fall off.

 

- Zaphod Beeblebrox

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:13 | Link to Comment Segestan
Segestan's picture

 

Are you saying the recession is NOT OVER!!!!   OMG..

Mon, 03/28/2011 - 23:16 | Link to Comment MBOB
MBOB's picture

Beetlejuice! Beetlejuice! Beetlejuice!

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 00:26 | Link to Comment Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

careful.. he posts here.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 01:43 | Link to Comment narnia
narnia's picture
Housing is a long term black hole.  It's not just for the reasons stated above, but for future fundamentals.  With the breakdown of government will come liberalization of building codes & other union protectionist measures.  Harvard business school was running a series on possibility and viability of the $300 home.  A highly efficient, 2,400 sf home can be built for under $10k.  If you don't have to pay plug in fees for central energy, you can pretty much equip an efficient home off the grid for less than $30k (or the cost of meters in some communities).  If you start to factor in this kind of cost structure, land will truly be the only portion of private property which really has any long term value. That all said and ignored in the short term, a crack up boom scenario is out there in housing.  If the dollar index really fell significantly (Yuan floats on the dollar, some limited or mid-scale international run on the dollar from Japan/MENA) and in that window the interest rate enviornment doesn't completely surrender to inflation, you could see a significant foreign flight to this asset class, especially on the coasts.  It would be short lived, but it would be strong.  
Tue, 03/29/2011 - 02:37 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

"There's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place like home"

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 03:12 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

"Too Big To Fail"

Starring: Paul Giamatti as Ben Bernanke chairsatan

First look here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2P1bhZ6fRU

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 04:48 | Link to Comment Pike Bishop
Pike Bishop's picture

Is there still anybody left in the room, who doesn't understand that Sorkin's book was entirely predicated on "If you guys talk to me, you will get your narrative out first."?

He was their gawddamned messenger boy. After publishing the book, he spent Summer weekends at their homes in the Hamptons.

Tough men, making tough decisions, to save the world from a terrible, terrible catastrophe.

Operation Peasants for Shields.

So HBO viewers get nothing on the people who armed the missles and launched them... Just 2+ hours on what they did when they realized they launched them on themselves.

There isn't one fbombing thing heroic or notable in any of that.

Let me guess. The same corporate bosses who have deep pockets for a big production, couldn't find their wallets for a cable distribution of "Inside Job"?

And Giamatti just jumped the shark. That's what happens when you work for the Ministry of Truth.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 04:58 | Link to Comment baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

Not a fan of Sorkin myself.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 04:43 | Link to Comment edmondantes
edmondantes's picture

You are missing the fact that 95% of the population are stupid sheep.

Spin does solve problems - under the present system they have been using it successfully to lie, cheat, deceive and kill opponents to the regime since 1971.

 

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 06:46 | Link to Comment tek77blu
tek77blu's picture

Great Interview of Jim Willie on this Japanese Crisis and the impacts it will have on gold and especially silver: http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/jim-willie-radio/

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 08:00 | Link to Comment oogs66
oogs66's picture

I still prefer lie, deny, and counteraccuse.

Tue, 03/29/2011 - 16:04 | Link to Comment angela03
angela03's picture

The Fed knows there is nothing holding the US economy together other than mass quantities of conjured cash. There is no other option other than spin. Millions of jobs that resulted from the last bubble(housing) are gone for a very long time. Middle class wages are a thing of the past as the tech industry outsources along with the already, all but gone, manufacturing sector. Goodbye America, Hello China.

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