This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: If Spin Were Reality - We'd Have A Recovery
Submitted by Nomi Prins
If Spin Were Reality - We'd Have A Recovery
Wouldn't it be awesome if spin could
actually solve problems? Then, you could just say the word 'recovery'
every time you gave a speech, ignore any negative data, assume the
markets are up because of general economic health and not a mass
infusion of cheap money, and it would be so.
It wouldn't matter that New Home Sales are at their lowest rate since reporting began in 1962.
It would be fine that Existing Home Sales (the number of completed transactions) were down 9.6% over the month, and 2.8% since last year.
It would be cool that Pending Home Sales were down 2.8% over the month, and 1.5% over the year.
It would be a symptom of recovery that
the average Sale Price for non-foreclosed homes is $246,358 - below
2003 levels, and for foreclosed homes, is $169,965.
It would just be a coincidence that 39% of homes sold in February were distressed (sold at a discount), many of those to investors, not to end-home-dwellers, up from 35% last February.
It wouldn't have anything to do with
people's housing situations, that Realty Trac, 'the leading foreclosure
online market' maintains a top ten 'Hot' foreclosure property states
list. (Ohio leads the list, with a 43% 'foreclosure savings' rate for
'investing' in a foreclosed property vs. paying up for a non-foreclosed
one.)
You could be the Treasury department,
and announce an 'orderly' sell program to get rid of 'up to' $10 billion
per month of your $142 billion agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed
securities portfolio (and yes, you would still be backing the agencies
guaranteeing those securities which has nothing to do with propping up
their value) - the one you bought as part of a multi-trillion financial
market bailout, ur 'stabilization' program - when you became a hedge
fund on behalf of the taxpayers. You wouldn't have to mention, ANYWHERE,
IN ANY SPEECH, ANYTHING about the $4.1 trillion of Treasury and other government debt you issued since September, 2008, because, what's $4 trillion when you're stabilizing the market - on behalf of the taxpayers.
You could be a mega bank, with a CEO that is also a Class-A NY Fed director (or Jamie Dimon) and impress your new soon-to-be-higher-dividend-receiving
shareholders, with your ability to reduce loan loss provisions, and it
wouldn't have anything to do with accounting rules that don't require
you to acknowledge the tremendous gap between the notional value of your
loans, and their underlying collateral (the real home values) or Fed
support.
You could be a mega bank (as say,
above), pass your second stress test with flying colors, be assured by
the Fed that no details of the test will be disclosed, and act coy about whether you want to disclose them or not.
You could be the Fed Chairman, and disregard the idea of inflation, because if you don't count the cost of food or gas
or health insurance or clothes or anything else sporting a price that
has inflated, there is no inflation, and you can carry on buying,
holding or subsidizing, the various forms of debt sustaining the
'recovery'.
Well, actually, if you looked at the
housing market or the financial condition of the majority of borrowers,
there wouldn't be any inflation. Maybe spin is reality. But, let me know
if I'm missing something.
»
- 7375 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
the president loves america, knows what he's doing, and was born in this country. how's that for spin?
Honey! The washing machine is stuck on the spin cycle again!
you mean the TV I think?
That's more than a 360. A 1080 at least!
you can't believe anything. they try to manipulate opinions all the time. and i certainly don't trust the goog. try this -- if you have google suggestion/autocomplete on your browser, type in these 3 words. you will get suggested web sites, up until you finish the m in scam, then the screen goes blank and forces you to press enter. the three words: goldman sachs scam
but it works with 'scum', 'scandal', and, who woulda thought, 'squid'
A 1099!
C'mon man, even the most extreme right, nazi propagandist realizes Obama is a US citizen. I'm no fan of the man but the outright stupidity has got to stop.
But, but, but, but.... Isn't that the way it....
All I know is that I've been unemployed for almost 3 years now and I now realize it's my own fault for not being happy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5um8QWWRvo
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-19th-supermoon-apocal...
thanks SOT for your insights. Something useful finally turned up on ZH...whattya know!!
If IPads were edible
'..you spin me right round baby, right round..like a record baby..round round round round "
spin bitchez
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sC-KaKAmmEY
You could claim that captured regulators and their inaction will be corrected by more regulations and captured regulators.
The answer to being in shit up to your eyeballs has always been self delusion. Soon after that you're fucked and you just don't understand why. I'm thinking about developing my own economic delusion index. I'm certain it would be a powerful predictor of delusional growth. Any ideas as to what I should include (apart from the stuff above)?
story of my life
let us not forget that 13% of home are empty......homes need constant care and attention....a lot of those homes will burn down....become overrun with mold....have vagrants steal all the copper.....have some hack rent them out to some poor sucker......the list goes on and on...
Read this shill-laden piece of brilliantness.
http://www.businessinsider.com/one-sign-the-housing-bust-could-end-soon-...
I threw up in my mouth a little.
me too....
Bloget's crap is the biggest liberal crap on the internet, can't even use it to pick up your dog shit.
I've seen many homes in Florida that had black mold growin on the studs and concrete (I guess black mold can grow on and consume anything) that they had to be torn down.
I do believe there are 20 million vacant homes in the U.S.
Rotting away sunshine
you won't even believe what we see in these pools now....frogs, fish, grills....only a matter of time until someone finds a body in one.....should be the next CSI theme....
CSI Infested Swimming Pool
CSI Ring Around the Bathtub
CSI Mouldy Shower Stall
CSI Clogged Commode
CSI Let that Dog Shit in My Yard Again and I'll Break Your Knees
CSI Oh, Yeah?
CSI Yeah, Wahtchu Gonna Do About It, Asshole?
CSI Burn A Cross In Their Front Yard
CSI Rape The Kid's Horse
CSI Set Fire to Their Home
CSI Takes Care of That Problem
And now for a peek at next seasons' premier
Chuckles, knuckles. :)
Don't look in the pools...
Ia! Ia! Cthulhu fhtagn! Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!
~^(;,;)^~
My neglected pool had TADPOLES in it...and I live in the middle of the mojave desert!
Freaky - same with my pool and I too live in mojave desert. Thought wtf are those-and my pool was sparkling clean!
At least 20 million.
Hey Nomi - Why didn't you bash your old employer GS? Is it becuase they are doing "God's work"?
I secure vacant homes for BoA. You have no idea how many homes are destroyed by frozen plumbing and eventual mold damage.
How can I help?
(and I mean with the black mold and freezing pipes)
For BofA I'd like to help too...let me know a couple addresses...I have a few extra gallons of kerosene that should knock down that mold problem pretty quick.
If spinning were a degree, Obsama would have a PHD!
The "Jobless Recovery" Rally
The "New Normal" Rally
The "POMO Rally"
The El-Erian "Sugar High" Rally
Whatever you want to call it, it has been one of the greatest of all time.
*The "I don't give a damn about my children or grand-children" Rally - glad you enjoyed yourself.
*fixed
It's the opposite. Some of us cared too much about our potential children to ever reproduce on THIS fuckin' rock.
It can't be great if it hurt the country as a whole.
Tells you all you really need to know about robottrader.
Ah yes, the sugar high, the Vegas binge, the lines on the mirror, the existential crisis, the motorcycle, the mistress...yes, yes...those all end so well...
It's over w/o QE3.
So that means QE3 is planned.
Also means onward to hyperinflation.
Ben will apologize :(
wow.. reverse indicator robotroll popped up again, another sell signal on the row .. god loves us today
Big rally in Zimbabwe too... How well did that work out?
is this a reprint?
like the man caught with his pants down pumping the bernanks behind...
"wasn't me"
(or is that the other way around?)
My favorite spin phrases of late: "Humanitarian Imperialism" and "Political Malpractice"
fancy words for "Hope and Change" - joker
you mean awesome. from xtranormal:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yAyCdfOXvec
"Police Action" and "Peacekeepers" are time worn favorites.
You don't get it. It's not just spin, the Fed created two parallel but divergent universes in response to the crisis: The paper economy, getting giddier and more bloated with 'liquidity' by the minute, and the real economy which is in a deflationary depression, getting paler and more anemic by the minute. That's biflation, baby! Lotsa Luck
I agree with CE - just like we had the shadow banking system, we now have a 'shadow economy'. The one being shown to us is supposed to be rosy, and the market is reflecting that, but the actual numbers are probably much worse. I keep seeing these weird hiccups in the service economy, where the work suddenly stops as if it were 2008 all over again (I couldn't give work away for free back then, the bunker mentality was so bad). I think the belief by Obama and Bernanke is that spin will carry us over the line, but that only works if the engine restarts, and all I see is this thing stalling.
Fact....We tracked a property in Long Boat Key that was available for short sale....previous owner had 10+ MM in it... they asked 8.9MM for it....it sold for 7.9MM....one month later it is back on the market for $5.9MM..immediate 2MM loss!!! .....funny thing is that a director from the original bank (lender) is now the Managing Member for the LLC holding company that bought it!!! They are moving this non-performing cluster "F" from one ledger to the next....plus they will have more property taxes on it because the city only had it tax assessed at 2.8MM and they had to pay a crap load of closing cost....btw...we valued the property at 2MM max..is that a recovery you can believe in?.. Anyone know a good investigative reporter in the LBK area?
"Anyone know a good investigative reporter in the LBK area?"
I do.
Well let's put them on this...has to be some fraud going on....at the very least a huge waste of tax payer money
How do you want to get in touch? I know a prominent reporter in WPB who is keenly interested in this topic [fraud]. I agitate mostly but manage to find myself around a lot of Certified Fraud Examiners, Lawyers, etc. Working on a project now..seems the entire family of a certain "Rocket Docket Judge" has secret Real Estate Agencies as well as "[insert judge name here] Family Properties LTD." Networking in the twenty first century...
Foreclosure Fraud – Economic Injustice Examined
Speaking Through Data
Are those your sites? Looks great... We have to at least fight for truth....push back....and try to do something.... you can email me at ed@flusa.com then I can send them the address, sales info, and new LLC ownership info...thanks for the contact....
You have mail. We're just building out foreclosurefraud.org. Blood everywhere in the fight for that domain.
who is he Jeff Skilling ?
This country runs on self denial and at this point its mostly a survival mechanism.
You need a certain level of denial in order to believe in dreams.
And I ride unicorns to deposit my trading profits in the local bank to buy some 5% five year CDs
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2011-03-26/news/29192428_1_...
Hey, I clapped my little hands off to keep Tinker Bell from dying.
But, I also grew up and left wishful thinking to the land of make believe.
The jooz speak, but Obama's lips move!
Watch the movie "Adventures of Power" as it is the only hope we all have. The Fed will kill us all. Buy rural land and grow your own. That all...
That was great. But ya know, it is working in mainstream America so far. Keeping spinning till you throw up.
Losing your job is a new beginning.
Losing your home is a new journey on a new road.
Many, many millions are embarking on a new beginning, new journies on new roads.
BTFD.
I hear guillotines are perfect for slicing watermelons.
I'm looking forward to watermelons on the grass.
I hear the pretty birds chirping and the breeze in the trees; such a lovely day...
Losing your house? Just stay in it, the bank could pay your $21k to move out.
http://www.dsnews.com/articles/servicers-asked-to-consider-21000-cash-for-keys-option-2011-03-25
No, no, way too much equity in it - been one of those responsible damn fools.
Have to hang on and recover the loss in value down the road but if we do a Japan I'll be hobbling on a cane or dead by that time (20-30 years of declines by some predictions).
Oh well, I'm 70% above the purchase price in 1998 so minus inflation and mortgage interest I might just break even.
Get me some land in east Texas with water supply and wild boars and I can get by. No more debt is the goal; and defending the perimenter with hounds and Mini-14's.
reality is truly a bitch†
ZH is like The Alamo of Truth, surrounded by an army of wind-up spinmeisters and journalistic ne'er-do wells. Assaults daily; occasional breaches of the walls. But we gotta fight to the last man.
I'd cast TD as Davy Crockett, williambonzai7 as Georgie Russell, Cognative Dissonance as Col. Travis, etc. With a supporting cast of hundreds.
I volunteer to be the riverboat gambler, played by Hans Conrad. WTF.
We should declare success and state that the economy is in full recovery...like Alan Ginsberg and Phil Ochs did when they declared the Vietnam War over in the late 1960s. Ochs even held public rallys in NYC.
(Maybe for 4/1, all the zero hedge stories could be about the strong recovery and how we dodged a real bullet.)
If wishes were fishes, we'd all cast nets.
Gurney Halleck
Goodbye, and thanks for all the fish.
- The Dolphins
If you people were any more unhip, your bums would fall off.
- Zaphod Beeblebrox
Are you saying the recession is NOT OVER!!!! OMG..
Beetlejuice! Beetlejuice! Beetlejuice!
careful.. he posts here.
"There's no place like home, there's no place like home, there's no place like home"
"Too Big To Fail"
Starring: Paul Giamatti as Ben Bernanke chairsatan
First look here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2P1bhZ6fRU
Is there still anybody left in the room, who doesn't understand that Sorkin's book was entirely predicated on "If you guys talk to me, you will get your narrative out first."?
He was their gawddamned messenger boy. After publishing the book, he spent Summer weekends at their homes in the Hamptons.
Tough men, making tough decisions, to save the world from a terrible, terrible catastrophe.
Operation Peasants for Shields.
So HBO viewers get nothing on the people who armed the missles and launched them... Just 2+ hours on what they did when they realized they launched them on themselves.
There isn't one fbombing thing heroic or notable in any of that.
Let me guess. The same corporate bosses who have deep pockets for a big production, couldn't find their wallets for a cable distribution of "Inside Job"?
And Giamatti just jumped the shark. That's what happens when you work for the Ministry of Truth.
Not a fan of Sorkin myself.
You are missing the fact that 95% of the population are stupid sheep.
Spin does solve problems - under the present system they have been using it successfully to lie, cheat, deceive and kill opponents to the regime since 1971.
Great Interview of Jim Willie on this Japanese Crisis and the impacts it will have on gold and especially silver: http://www.contraryinvestorscafe.com/jim-willie-radio/
I still prefer lie, deny, and counteraccuse.
The Fed knows there is nothing holding the US economy together other than mass quantities of conjured cash. There is no other option other than spin. Millions of jobs that resulted from the last bubble(housing) are gone for a very long time. Middle class wages are a thing of the past as the tech industry outsources along with the already, all but gone, manufacturing sector. Goodbye America, Hello China.