Guest Post: If Spin Were Reality - We'd Have A Recovery

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Nomi Prins

If Spin Were Reality - We'd Have A Recovery

Wouldn't it be awesome if spin could
actually solve problems? Then, you could just say the word 'recovery'
every time you gave a speech, ignore any negative data, assume the
markets are up because of general economic health and not a mass
infusion of cheap money, and it would be so.

It wouldn't matter that New Home Sales are at their lowest rate since reporting began in 1962.

It would be fine that Existing Home Sales (the number of completed transactions) were down 9.6% over the month, and 2.8% since last year.

It would be cool that Pending Home Sales were down 2.8% over the month, and 1.5% over the year.

It would be a symptom of recovery that
the average Sale Price for non-foreclosed homes is $246,358  - below
2003 levels, and for foreclosed homes, is $169,965.

It would just be a coincidence that 39% of homes sold in February were distressed (sold at a discount), many of those to investors, not to end-home-dwellers, up from 35% last February.

It wouldn't have anything to do with
people's housing situations, that Realty Trac, 'the leading foreclosure
online market' maintains a top ten 'Hot' foreclosure property states
list. (Ohio leads the list, with a 43% 'foreclosure savings' rate for
'investing' in a foreclosed property vs. paying up for a non-foreclosed
one.)

You could be the Treasury department,
and announce an 'orderly' sell program to get rid of 'up to' $10 billion
per month of your $142 billion agency-guaranteed mortgage-backed
securities portfolio (and yes, you would still be backing the agencies
guaranteeing those securities which has nothing to do with propping up
their value) - the one you bought as part of a multi-trillion financial
market bailout, ur 'stabilization' program - when you became a hedge
fund on behalf of the taxpayers. You wouldn't have to mention, ANYWHERE,
IN ANY SPEECH, ANYTHING about the $4.1 trillion of Treasury and other government debt you issued since September, 2008, because, what's $4 trillion when you're stabilizing the market - on behalf of the taxpayers.

You could be a mega bank, with a CEO that is also a Class-A NY Fed director (or Jamie Dimon) and impress your new soon-to-be-higher-dividend-receiving
shareholders, with your ability to reduce loan loss provisions, and it
wouldn't have anything to do with accounting rules that don't require
you to acknowledge the tremendous gap between the notional value of your
loans, and their underlying collateral (the real home values) or Fed
support.

You could be a mega bank (as say,
above), pass your second stress test with flying colors, be assured by
the Fed that no details of the test will be disclosed, and act coy about whether you want to disclose them or not. 

You could be the Fed Chairman, and disregard the idea of inflation, because if you don't count the cost of food or gas
or health insurance or clothes or anything else sporting a price that
has inflated, there is no inflation, and you can carry on buying,
holding or subsidizing, the various forms of debt sustaining the
'recovery'.

Well, actually, if you looked at the
housing market or the financial condition of the majority of borrowers,
there wouldn't be any inflation. Maybe spin is reality. But, let me know
if I'm missing something.

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Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

the president loves america, knows what he's doing, and was born in this country.  how's that for spin?

Long-John-Silver's picture

Honey! The washing machine is stuck on the spin cycle again!

Careless Whisper's picture

you can't believe anything. they try to manipulate opinions all the time. and i certainly don't trust the goog. try this -- if you have google suggestion/autocomplete on your browser, type in these 3 words. you will get suggested web sites, up until you finish the m in scam, then the screen goes blank and forces you to press enter. the three words:  goldman sachs scam

emsolý's picture

but it works with 'scum', 'scandal', and, who woulda thought, 'squid'

angela03's picture

C'mon man, even the most extreme right, nazi propagandist realizes Obama is a US citizen. I'm no fan of the man but the outright stupidity has got to stop.

knukles's picture

But, but, but, but....  Isn't that the way it....

Spirit Of Truth's picture

All I know is that I've been unemployed for almost 3 years now and I now realize it's my own fault for not being happy:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5um8QWWRvo

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/03/march-19th-supermoon-apocal...

dogismyth's picture

thanks SOT for your insights.  Something useful finally turned up on ZH...whattya know!!

FOC 1183's picture

If IPads were edible

doomandbloom's picture

'..you spin me right round baby, right round..like a record baby..round round round round "

Misean's picture

You could claim that captured regulators and their inaction will be corrected by more regulations and captured regulators.

Coke and Hookers's picture

The answer to being in shit up to your eyeballs has always been self delusion. Soon after that you're fucked and you just don't understand why. I'm thinking about developing my own economic delusion index. I'm certain it would be a powerful predictor of delusional growth. Any ideas as to what I should include (apart from the stuff above)?

FLUSA.com's picture

let us not forget that 13% of home are empty......homes need constant care and attention....a lot of those homes will burn down....become overrun with mold....have vagrants steal all the copper.....have some hack rent them out to some poor sucker......the list goes on and on...

Amabo Kcarab's picture

Read this shill-laden piece of brilliantness.

http://www.businessinsider.com/one-sign-the-housing-bust-could-end-soon-...

 

I threw up in my mouth a little.

 

bigking12345's picture

Bloget's crap is the biggest liberal crap on the internet, can't even use it to pick up your dog shit.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I've seen many homes in Florida that had black mold growin on the studs and concrete (I guess black mold can grow on and consume anything) that they had to be torn down.

I do believe there are 20 million vacant homes in the U.S.

FLUSA.com's picture

you won't even believe what we see in these pools now....frogs, fish, grills....only a matter of time until someone finds a body in one.....should be the next CSI theme....

knukles's picture

CSI Infested Swimming Pool
CSI Ring Around the Bathtub
CSI Mouldy Shower Stall
CSI Clogged Commode
CSI Let that Dog Shit in My Yard Again and I'll Break Your Knees
CSI Oh, Yeah?
CSI Yeah, Wahtchu Gonna Do About It, Asshole?
CSI Burn A Cross In Their Front Yard
CSI Rape The Kid's Horse
CSI Set Fire to Their Home
CSI Takes Care of That Problem

And now for a peek at next seasons' premier

JohnG's picture

Chuckles, knuckles. :)

umop episdn's picture

Don't look in the pools...

Ia! Ia! Cthulhu fhtagn! Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Cthulhu R'lyeh wgah'nagl fhtagn!

   ~^(;,;)^~   

OldPhart's picture

My neglected pool had TADPOLES in it...and I live in the middle of the mojave desert!

sourgrapesson's picture

Freaky - same with my pool and I too live in mojave desert.  Thought wtf are those-and my pool was sparkling clean!

No More Bubbles's picture

At least 20 million.

Hey Nomi - Why didn't you bash your old employer GS?   Is it becuase they are doing "God's work"?

 

 

Bad Asset's picture

I secure vacant homes for BoA.  You have no idea how many homes are destroyed by frozen plumbing and eventual mold damage.

ebworthen's picture

How can I help?

(and I mean with the black mold and freezing pipes)

OldPhart's picture

For BofA I'd like to help too...let me know a couple addresses...I have a few extra gallons of kerosene that should knock down that mold problem pretty quick.

Eireann go Brach's picture

If spinning were a degree, Obsama would have a PHD!

RobotTrader's picture

The "Jobless Recovery" Rally

The "New Normal" Rally

The "POMO Rally"

The El-Erian "Sugar High" Rally

Whatever you want to call it, it has been one of the greatest of all time.

Concentrated power has always been the enemy of liberty.'s picture

*The "I don't give a damn about my children or grand-children" Rally - glad you enjoyed yourself.

 

 

*fixed

blunderdog's picture

It's the opposite.  Some of us cared too much about our potential children to ever reproduce on THIS fuckin' rock.

Caviar Emptor's picture

It can't be great if it hurt the country as a whole. 

penisouraus erecti's picture

Tells you all you really need to know about robottrader.

ebworthen's picture

Ah yes, the sugar high, the Vegas binge, the lines on the mirror, the existential crisis, the motorcycle, the mistress...yes, yes...those all end so well...

JohnG's picture

It's over w/o QE3.

So that means QE3 is planned.

Also means onward to hyperinflation.

Ben will apologize :(

JonTurk's picture

wow.. reverse indicator robotroll popped up again, another sell signal on the row .. god loves us today

Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Big rally in Zimbabwe too... How well did that work out?

Deluxe186's picture

is this a reprint?

Hook Line and Sphincter's picture

like the man caught with his pants down pumping the bernanks behind...

"wasn't me"

(or is that the other way around?)

Natasha Fatale's picture

My favorite spin phrases of late: "Humanitarian Imperialism" and "Political Malpractice" 

 

Caviar Emptor's picture

You don't get it. It's not just spin, the Fed created two parallel but divergent universes in response to the crisis: The paper economy, getting giddier and more bloated with 'liquidity' by the minute, and the real economy which is in a deflationary depression, getting paler and more anemic by the minute. That's biflation, baby! Lotsa Luck