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Guest Post: If This Is What Deflation Looks Like…
Submitted by Mike Krieger of Kam LLP
Automatons with business suits swinging black boxes,
Sequestering the blueprints of daily life
Contented, free of care, they rejoice in morning ritual
As they file like drone ant colonies to their office in the sky
I don't ask questions, don't promote demonstration,
Don't look for new consensus, don't stray from constitution
If I pierce the complexity I won't find salvation
Just the bald and overt truth
Of the evil and deception
There is an inner logic,
And we're taught to stay far from it
It is simple and elegant,
But it's cruel and antithetic
And there's no effort to reveal it
Graduated mentors stroll in marbled brick porticos
in sagacious dialog they despise their average ways
betraying pomp and discipline, they mold their institution
Where they practice exclusion on the masses every day
Decorated warriors drill harmless kids on pavement
Stimulating tyranny under red alert
Protecting the opulent and staging moral standard
They expect redemption of character and self-growth
Bad Religion, Inner Logic (1994)
If This Is What Deflation Looks Like…
Then I really, really, REALLY don’t want to ever see what inflation looks like. Despite the title of this piece I do not wish to engage in some inane debate about whether deflation or inflation is the risk. I have made it clear for two years now that we are in a highly deflationary environment occurring within the backdrop of a purely fiat monetary system that is governed by “experts” whose ideological framework is based upon the false economic religion known as Keynesianism. So for people that are actually trying to preserve their wealth an intellectual debate on inflation or deflation might be interesting but is not particularly productive. I can understand why many in the financial services industry see the greatest risk to be deflation. Why? Because for them it is. Stocks, bonds and real estate will perform horribly in the environment that we have. Even if they go up for periods, over time they will not make up for the cost of living increases in the things that we need. This is the major disconnect happening right now between “Wall Street” and “Main Street.” Wall Street has been coddled and pampered for two and a half decades by the natural forces of a secular bull market in financial assets as well as the Federal Reserve Chairman and a D.C. establishment that refuses to allow the free market to function. So when a money manager of financial assets looks into his future and sees deflation he is correct. When the majority of “Main Street” looks into their future they also correctly see inflation. That is because when you have 40 million Americans on food stamps I am sorry but they have much bigger issues to deal with than the S&P500. So the world we are looking at is where a BLT sandwich could cost $12 and home prices drop another 20%. Investment professionals have a very hard time getting the heads around this concept for some reason but that is the reality we are looking at. Goods that are wanted around the world will rise in price in debased dollars while non-essential items deflate. The Chinese want pork but they could care less about some McMansion in Ohio. There is nothing anyone can do to change this. It is a natural cycle as simple, powerful and inevitable as any cycle in nature. If it must happen, it will happen.
My problem with the “deflationists” that recommend a high allocation of assets to long-term treasuries is that there are a lot of better assets to buy in the type of environment we are entering. As I have repeated over and over again these assets are primarily precious metals but also include other commodities. Especially commodities that people need and are strategic to governments such as food and oil. There are plenty of equities that are associated with these themes and in my opinion they will do far better over time than long-term treasuries. Gold for example IS the end game. Treasuries certainly are not. Gold is the best way to short the market. Gold is the ultimate form of payment. Gold is your vote as an investment manager and a citizen against the maniacs running governments all over the world. Without going too far into it in this email I think the move we just saw in gold and in the gold shares is the beginning of one of the most powerful moves we will ever see in our lifetime. I keep reading technical guys talking about tops in gold. We are very early into this gold bull market from a price perspective. I think we could see similar gains of the last ten years compressed into the next two. I also think gold shares will start to outperform gold itself, which would be an major transition. The curtain has been lifted, the emperor has no clothes and the quicker you figure this out and act the better.
Ok, so some quick charts here for those that aren’t paying particularly close attention to the various commodity markets. If this is deflation…
Corn 1 Year Chart
Cotton 1 Year Chart
Lean Hogs 1 Year Chart
Currency Comments
Two weeks ago I discussed that the market would push the yen to the point where the BOJ would be forced to take aggressive action to stop it and then potentially the yen would start to collapse and the JGBs would go with it. This would then herald the end of the government bond bubble globally (it’s really a fiat currency bubble). Well, the yen did push the government in Japan and they did act and the yen got smashed by 3% versus the dollar in one of the most powerful reversals I have ever seen. Does this mean the end of the yen’s rally and JGBs? Way too early to tell, but I did get something else from it. Surprise, surprise it is exceptionally bullish for gold. Why? Because it just proved to another segment of the investment world that perhaps remained in denial that all governments are playing games with your savings. That fiat currencies are pieces of paper that are being fondled and molested by global central bankers. That these games will not stop. The Fed can buy all the SPU futures they want and the other players can sell the treasuries they recently bought back to the Fed and then goose the market, but the magicians of mayhem can’t print gold and that is all you need to know.
Welcome to the Revolution
There is a revolution happening in America and it is coming from all sectors and it is being brought to you by people from all walks of life. My generation has been subject to vicious propaganda and brainwashing since we were born and we are waking up to it. We are not happy about it and we are going to change this sick system. Did anyone else find it odd that the media decided to blow up a story about some nut that wanted to burn Korans? We are in a depression and THAT is a story they chose to headline? Very suspicious. Don’t fall for it. Take the red pill and let’s get on with it.
Mike
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Dammit, Mike. The first rule of Fight Club is we do not talk about Fight club. Otherwise, great stuff.
Cog, the day only a small fraction of your client base begins to wake up and realize something is amiss is perhaps the earliest, and most valuable, leading indicator to which one might have access.
As many know, I happen to subscribe to the deflationary hyper-inflation hypothesis. That is, hyper-inflation won't necessarily ensue due to excess money aggregates chasing too few goods. Instead, hyper-inflation will come about as a general loss of confidence in the underlying legal tender used as the primary means of exchange. In fact, well known historical precedents of subsequent central bank reactive money printing exercises are effects rather than causes.
IOW, as it becomes increasingly apparent that the combined US public/private debt will never be re-paid (and could conceivably be defaulted outright), the $dollar which rides atop this pyramid-of-faith will collapse in value. Under this scenario, the price of goods begins to rapidly escalate as people desperately attempt to rid themselves of worthless fiat confetti, culminating in critical goods (food, oil) eventually being removed altogether from the market-place in exchange for $USD.
The action in gold we're seeing these days is only a front-runner to what is going to occur across a broader market basket of goods & services when the herd eventually panics & bolts.
You, my friend, will be able to bestow the ultimate correlation confirmation kiss. When your clients begin to reveal/confess even a shadow of a doubt, that will be the initial tip off regarding an overall loss of confidence. I just hope you share it all with your fellow ZH denizens before the cascade event(s) begins in earnest.
Yes, I think the gold bears are too focused on a typical "inflation" scenario or excess money supply, and ignore the likely outcome you outlined, loss of faith in the USD here and around the world. Do they read any of the articles like the one above and have a cogent argument against them? Oh well, I guess it would be boring if we all had the same point of view.
All laid out in painstaking detail on FOFOA's site...
I think he should win a Nobel Prize in economics (FOFOA)..........he's a nice change from your usual economist..........one tiny nit-pick I have is how he often will bring up a tantalizing topic, then he'll write "more on that later"
+++ FOFOA is a treasure, a must-read if you haven't.
Sounding more like The Matrix than Fight Club LOL.
Exactly!
+++++++++++
toathis, you are the same babyhomo from the gay-ass Marketwatch board...you suck
WOOT WOOT
Toathis, time to crawl back to Cramerica. Jimmy has some koolaid for you to wash another blue pill down.
Wow, I guess there's no arguing with that thesis. I mean, your refutation of the above article is stellar, and your evidence truly is beyond debate. Well played...asshole.
+1
/sarcasm
Of course Great Depression 2.0 is "not coming."
How can it "come" when it's already here?
(Insert Dirty Joke Here)
babybop from marketwatch
HEY...some of my best friends are alocholics. hic..we like to drink straight from the bolottles...hic
Going through the "hierachy of needs".
1. Food and water - OK or not?
2. Safety, security, and protection from the elements. OK?
3. Sense of belonging - Love OK ??????????
4. Esteem, recognition, status ??????????????????????????
5. Selfactualization ????????????????????????????????
All may have to "Suck it up" a little. Many people around today have expectations that cannot be met in the long run for the total populace. Yes there will be movements and maybe riots. But look at the bright side. IMO, the disciplines required will not be as severe as those required prior to the "swinging 60s . Something like the 70s should be sustainable. The housing market that seems to be emerging gives one little straw in the wind.
Cheers.
'kin tw@t.
none so blind as those who will not see.
Bi-flation... Inflation in the things you need; deflation in the things you own and earn.
So the world we are looking at is where a BLT sandwich could cost $12 and home prices drop another 20%.
Absolutely correct IMO.
Bi-flation... Inflation in the things you need; deflation in the things you own and earn.
I'd only add this slight change: things bought with long-term debt fall in price, things bought with cash flow that are needed to survive (food, energy) go up in price, all when priced in fiat.
Everything is deflating with respect to real money (gold), some things (houses) faster than others. This is the thing that "financial professionals" don't get, can't get, and never will get. So, wrt gold, we are in a deflationary environment. When you think of it in these terms it makes perfect sense.
Investment professionals have a very hard time getting the heads around this concept for some reason but that is the reality we are looking at.
That's because they're all graduates of some stupid indoctrination B school like Wharton where they churn out Keynesian drones. I've met and spoken with some of these people and the depth of their indoctrination is amazingly deep. The fiat paradigm has been hammered into them. I think in B school they get them to buy the program by first blowing a lot of sunshine up their asses, like telling them they're smarter than everyone else, then they start in with the wonder of fiat currency thingies, fractional-reserve lending, Fed-love, and hatred of gold.
Most investment professionals are completely "inside the box." Taught economics and finance from treetop level down to the details - accepting that the given starting point is factual and sound. It works just fine, until it doesn't. Then, everyone is suddenly an idiot. Amazing.
Infact most "experts" are inside the box.
Once you stop renormalising infinities whole quantum theory fails,
Once you go into stem cells,cancer Doctors have no answer
within the constraints that we have imposed upon ourselves, we have "experts" everywhere
indeflation: noun; not sure whether prices are rising or falling...
(+++ btw, SWR)
someone is indekitchen with Dinah ...
SWRichmond,
+10
All you said and weak math. I am just an engineer but I had at lest one course rigorous in vector and tensor usage. Everything that I have seen in the general economics analysis amounts to trend analysis; not much there on what goes into and comes out of the elements of the economic system.
The famous professor Merton is reported after the imfamous LTCM meltdown that he was pessimistic on ever being able to mathematically predict risk in derivatives.
It will never be easy but if schools like Harvard and Wharton would require a regorous course in vector and tensor math, before they start with the advanced economics courses, there might be some rollback in the "mysterys" that currently bedevil the economic academia.
Here is one shot a better analysis of one area of the problem.
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15892/1/MPRA_paper_15892.pdf
AND
Matt Taibii's site:
http://astrocycle.net/GS_PumpAndDump.pdf
Couldn't agree more
What I've been saying for months and months. We're going BI!
Exactly, a hot dog will cost $24 bucks, a 3 bdr 1, 1/2 bath will cost about $20,000, welcome to Ameribabwe.
OH, and BTW its all a moot point anyway because Ameribabwe is a -0- production economy, we dont make anything, so no one will have a job so just get a chess board and spend days in the park like they do in Havana.
why do you say USA don't have anything. Not True.
USA have everything - Primary : Food/best Ag lands, Armaments, Medicine,Natural Gas, Natural resources/waterways/Ports, healthy population growth ... Secondary:Computers, Software, Network Gears, Universities, Infrastructure
I couldn't agree more when it comes to "healthy population growth"
Flashes of "The Biggest loser" zapping through my head.
No wonder health care is unaffordable. LMAO
Deleted, but junked you.
I mentioned this on an earlier thread, but the inflation/deflation debate has to be looked at one the basis of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maslow's_hierarchy_of_needs
Basically anything that corresponds with "self-actualization" will virtually go to zero, while prices soar for everything related to "physiological"
no, self-actualization is a myth. not possible, because its not static. by its own definition. it can neither be deflated or inflated by anything occurring outside itself. think the Matrix.
Exactly....
...It's Youflation™ - where the prices of things you need go up and he prices of things you own go down.
who junked *that*? i'm gonna borrow that, it's a great quote. ( naturally w/ attributions, etc.)
Attribution my fuzzy coon butt. I'm flat stealin' it.
(Gotta uphold the coon tradition; see that mask on my face.)
I would copyright dat right dere, beeaatch...
Youflation - great neologism! How about we take it one notch higher and make a YouFlate site where anybody can upload their videos about the effect of ...flation in their region? Nothing like getting it straight from the horse's mouth.
why do I feel like I'm at choir practice?
Because the priest is touching you down there? :P
Thanks for the laugh!!!
harharhar! good one, Hansel
Gonna keep posting this all day because it should help clear up a lot of ambiguity and shows us how badly we've been had.
http://www.monetary.org/houseoflordstalk.pdf
Some good stuff in there but, I would rather not give the power to create money to the government because if you look at the way they handle taxes now....shit we would lose half our purchasing power in a week if those crazies on the hill got the ability to print money. Also you have to remember we live in a democracy so the mob rules...and they WILL vote to steal from each other.. The fed is private and it still prints at the whim...fuck printing presses.
Zacklo
Yeah, it's a hell of a dilemma. Either the Fed is controlled by the democratic process (the mob?) or you let some self-important criminals control the country through the money supply.
So how's the current system working for ya ????
I think you got the right understanding Kayman. Do I get to vote on the next Chairman of the Central Bank? What if the Central Banks de-facto own the government? So I get to vote for the President who is told who to elect as the next Chairman which has already been nominated by the Central Bank.
Government should issue the currency and liquidity/storage function of banks should evolve into peer-to-peer lending and CB's go for a bigger supply chain based on carrots vs a gun pointed at your head.
But the Golden Calf won't decentralize itself outside of war creating pain for them as individuals (lost family members that gold just can't buy back).
“A nation of well-informed men who have been taught to know and prize the rights which God has given them cannot be enslaved. It is in the region of ignorance that tyranny begins.” Benjamin Franklin
“What luck for rulers that men do not think.” Adolf Hitler
Benjamin Franklin when asked by a woman, "What kind of government have you given us?" Replied, "A Republic Madam, if you can keep it!"
As Margaret Thatcher famously observed,
“The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people’s money to spend”
"…profit motive DIMINISHES as government controls, regulations and taxes INCREASE to deny the fruits of success to those who produce. Therefore, any attempt THROUGH GOVERNMENTAL INTERVENTION to redistribute the material rewards of labor can only result in the eventual destruction of the productive base of society, without which real abundance and security for more than the ruling elite is quite impossible.
England was killed by an idea: the idea that the weak, indolent and profligate must be supported by the strong, industrious, and frugal – to the degree that tax-consumers will have a living standard comparable to that of taxpayers; the idea that government exists for the purpose of plundering those who work to give the product of their labor to those who do not work. The economic and social cannibalism produced by this communist-socialist idea will destroy any society which adopts it and clings to it as a basic principle.
There is one simple test. Do I as an individual have a right to use force upon my neighbor to accomplish this goal? If I do have such a right, then I may delegate that power to my government to exercise on my behalf. If I do not have that right as an individual, then I cannot delegate it to government, and I cannot ask my government to perform the act for me." E. Benson, Secretary of Agriculture
“…the Federal Judiciary…[is] an irresponsible body, working like gravity by night and by day, gaining a little today and a little tomorrow, and advancing it’s noiseless step like a thief over the field of jurisdiction until all shall be usurped from the States; and the governments of all be consolidated into one.” Thomas Jefferson
“The people never give up their liberties but under some delusion.” Edmund Burke 1784
“Those who would place security over liberty shall deserve, nor receive neither.” Benjamin Franklin
“Perhaps it is a universal truth that the loss of liberty at home is to be charged against provisions against danger, real or pretended from abroad.” Letter to Thomas Jefferson, May 13, 1798, James, Madison, page 141
"Of all the enemies to public liberty, war is, perhaps, the most to be dreaded . . ." Political Observations April 20 1795, James Madison,, page 491
...the war on terror....Who's terror?
“The shaft of the arrow had been feathered with one of the eagle’s own plumes. We often give our enemies the means of our own destruction.” Aesop
“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” George Bernard Shaw
“Those who expect to reap the blessings of freedom must undergo the fatigue of supporting it” Patrick Henry
“If ye love wealth greater than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest for freedom, go home and leave us in peace. We seek not your council nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you; May your chains set lightly upon you and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen.” Samuel Adams
“Men occasionally stumble over the truth, but most of them pick themselves up and hurry off as if nothing happened.” Winston Churchill
Thank you. That is fucking excellent reading.
Complete tripe. The author somehow completely misses the fact that government is the tool for private enterprise to debase money. Expanded government control does not check the power of private banks to debase the currency - it increases it.
We've been had all right, but not in the way that you think.
Bill Still / Ellen Brown wing of the gold sucks party...
Zaknick, whoever flagged your post as junk must be either retarded or a gold bug, or both, which is a very likely occurrence. I found the discussion interesting and revealing and especially enjoyed the commentary on "gold-backed currency" delightful.
Anybody who thinks gold isn't in a bubble, hasn't done their homework. Simply put, remember Pets.com and the tech mania, and 125% home equity loans? Well, those, "buy gold" and "cash for gold" ads all over the place are telling us the same thing. Looks like a bubble, smells like a bubble, probably is a bubble.
Fascinating article written in a quaint style. Some claim Kennedy was assassinated for trying to give government the power to issue money. I particularly liked the part where the romans dipped their coins in vinegar so that they would have no intrinsic value, no commodity value. Assuming what you say is true, and it seems to me to have the ring of truth, the fact that we do have privately issued money right now is an argument in favor of buying gold for individuals trying to protect their wealth, something that would not be necessary had Kennedy succeeded.
There is some great insight here that Krieger manages to put in incredible simple terms:
and
toathis is right. NO GREAT DEPRESSION 2.0...more like 2.4. ya know with all the revisions and delays of release...
beta version?
Nah, they are taking their time to get is juuusssttt rigghht!
That one got me laughing out loud. Thanks.
Blu ray.
It's really not either kind of "...flation".
It's just a "much lower standard of living".
In terms of selling women their fat asses back to them in the form of soap, do you see inflation or deflation?
It's a bubbles...
You know, we are faced with a demographic crisis of epic proportions throughout the G-7, and no one even talks about inflating the birthrate of the core (and productive) populations in those countries.
There is only one visible secular purpose to life on this planet and that is to pass your genes on to the next generation.
Our consumer society provides us with all the trappings of status in the sexual selection process (Armani suits, Gucci purses, and Porsche sports cars), but these only lead to false sensations of evolutionary fitness unless real reproduction follows. And the essence of cosumerism is to avoid reproduction as it detracts from the continuing (and thus irrational) acquisition of those emblems of fitness for reproduction.
On a very basic level, liposuction is emblematic of the problem.
Now the big question!
Is everyone out there in ZH land ready for the leader who will shut down the media and advertising propaganda machine that keeps us from reproducing?
Is everyone ready for entertainment that glorifies life choices that involve living for others - monogamous marriage and large families?
And what do we do with the noisy dissenters who want us all to go extinct?
nicely said. agree 100%
100 Trillion ^100. Everyone forgets that we live eternally through our children.
nonsense.
God designed people to be very curious and desirous of the opposite sex
at an age that greatly preceeds the age at which people commonly acquire common sense.
Else we would have become extinct millenia ago.
This whole crisis has been brought on by the realization
that "capitalism" and all of ur culture's ideals
are based on the expectation of perpetual growth; however,
lastely people have realized that our civilization is at or close to
peak population,
peak energy consumption,
peak food production,
and that all of those must go into a decline,
whether handled intellectually and wisely
or out of desperation.
We aren't going extinct.
but there are definitely too many of us about ....
as education level increases, the reproduction rate and belief in religion decreases
so who's reproducing these days?
ignorant people and religious nuts
some future we have
immigrants will reproduce for us, problem solved.
Like the saying goes...dogs can have babies too.
We tell them to lead by example. To help the process along we can produce the Reality TV show called Put Your Ass Where Your Mouth Is. It works like this: Population Reduction Believers are required to sign a contract offering themselves for televised culling. Six lucky winners are selected by lottery. Now the fun part here is that the studio audience gets to select the method of each individual's culling! How cool is that? The studio audience also determines how the earthly remains are disposed of, such as feed for hogs, composting, incineration, etc. Lots of possibilities here with endless entertainment value.
Hell, I'd watch.
The problem with dragging out Deflation is that eventually it becomes a lifestyle...
"There is a revolution happening in America and it is coming from all sectors and it is being brought to you by people from all walks of life. My generation has been subject to vicious propaganda and brainwashing since we were born and we are waking up to it. We are not happy about it and we are going to change this sick system. Did anyone else find it odd that the media decided to blow up a story about some nut that wanted to burn Korans?"
yuppie analysis. revolution is not coming from ALL sectors. the corrupt gov't WS cabal is busy looting america. its a plus for you to finally realize that your "generation has been brianwashed." stop voting for koolaid drinkers and liars and "cool" guys
and nothing is going to change. NOTHING. ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!
The Tea Party is a joke. Co-opted. Watered Down. RUINED!
Sit, my friend. Sit and watch over the next 2 years as this whole thing explodes, and then tell me "nothing is going to change". Everything is going to change, irrevocably. Either we are mentally prepared, hardened, and ready, or we are not.
Pining, I think you will find the following article extremely enlightening and useful in your future posts:
http://www.ehow.com/how_2066623_spot-forum-troll.html
thanks for that link. will save for future use. add:
#6. call names, attack character. never actually contribute value to the discussion. never even mention the issue at hand...
e.g.:
"you've got to be kidding! how long have you been at this, newbie-man? what? did you vote for bush?, probably a gay, jewish, alter-boy molester who burns korans for fun. go back to your basement and play your mario games.
shees. what a clown."
the tea party is the spark of revolution
on the other hand, cnbc is preparing for an obama worship fest on monday and seeking advice from the squealer howard dean
You don't have to reply to yourself. If your comment has not had a reply you can edit your first comment. (Not that anyone replied... get it?)
Unfortunately, this is absolutely correct. "The Tea Party" has no resemblance to the Tea Party Movement started two years ago. Sarah Palin needs a ball gag. Or someone to just give her $2MM to exit the limelight ASAP.
Palin is America.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WALIARHHLII
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrzXLYA_e6E&feature=related
i'd argue that the *real* tea-party is too amorphous to be categorized, trivialized, or discounted so easily.
it has many more faces than the pundits realize, and most 'participants' are quietly letting the silly front-side take on the media, while the back-side quietly loads up.
the tide will not be stopped by a wall of sand. ignore at your peril.
like herding cats. As it should be. Republic allows for, and thrives on this idea.
How exactly has she earned that ball gag Don? Specifics, please...
For starters, watch this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NrzXLYA_e6E&feature=related
If you're unable to acknowledge or recognize the lunacy of Sarah Palin then you probably haven't seen the ball since kickoff.
I'll go one step further and say McCain should be held accountable politically for attempting a cheap shot at the presidency by selecting Palin as his co-pilot. Bringing Palin to his ticket was no different than Budweiser trying to sell beer using clydesdales. It speaks volumes to the state of politics in America - all show, no substance.
@ toathis
Is that why its candidates are beating incumbants in the primaries? Rand Paul ring a bell for you baby face?
Don't come banging on my door when you're starving.
You'll get a nasty surprise.
They got the story wrong
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_wkgIzuqJM0w/TIbeGj82SaI/AAAAAAAAF5c/6D2Gbiwunr...
+1000 Classic!! Absolute Classic!!
Mike,
Great take on exactly what I have been saying for months.
The essentials of life, are going to be thru the fricken roof.( and have been, and it's just starting).
No Deflation?......6 months ago, I was saying ( as a retired guy, I do the grocery shopping, etc).
When eggs go for .89dz, to a 1.79dz in less than 30 days, and bread goes up 30%, Milk from 1.89, to nearly 4.00..........that's not deflation dudes.
Why these exceptional rises so fast?.
Look at his Commodity charts.
Those are Main Street products...............
Everyday items we have to have.
Not 65" Flatscreens, or a new 300C, or a Computer, etc,etc.
And you would think that the banksters would be happy just to steal the wealth from our assets. Now they are taking the food out of our mouths. And, we let them do it. Sad for them, and us.
+++
then i look at DBA, and wonder WTF... up a little, then scroll back to 2008. $46ish 24-28 range since then...
is this a USO-like scam too?
Those hedonic adjustments play hell with the actual inflation rates.
http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p72746.asp
+
i'm not sure if it's good that folks don't know what's really going on w/ CPI or bad...
When your government lies to you it is never good.
But I get your point.
Simulflation.
http://www.blog.speculist.com/archives/001910.html
"Did anyone else find it odd that the media decided to blow up a story about some nut that wanted to burn Korans?"
No, I didn't find it odd at all. The "media" has been doing this for years. It's called sensationalism. It sells papers/networks/advertising.
"There is a revolution happening in America and it is coming from all sectors and it is being brought to you by people from all walks of life. My generation has been subject to vicious propaganda and brainwashing since we were born and we are waking up to it. We are not happy about it and we are going to change this sick system."
Really? Which generation is it that's "waking up to it"? The one standing in line for three days to buy a new iphone??
+1 Harry.
I'm surrounded by blind optimists, blind lemmings, and ostriches, across all age groups.
Will it be only the ZH community that will be saved?!
I agree the media is all for distractions, but the recent Islam thing is about the GOP and the election. Last time it was gay people. The whole topic magically goes away on November 3rd.
As for people waking up to it, I don't see it without another huge crisis. Most people are completely unaware of this stuff and/or not versed enough to understand what they're hearing. They hear "the Fed is on it" and "you need stimulus in a downturn" and have no education to refute it. They're not dumb, they just don't follow this stuff.
No, another worse crisis will have to occur. And likely will. It may take another 5 to 10 years.
+ chet, i hope you are right, but i'm not so sure this one is going to just go away beyond the election.
whether the issue (islam, iran, n-korea, etc.) has any merit is academic. they need enemies more than ever.
and some of 'em might actually be 'out to get us'. but we'll never know for sure based on the MSM-spinners.
a step further, when you don't have enemies, is to make them. i heard the rational argument the other day, that perhaps our forces in the middle-east aren't there to "foster peace through democracy" or whatever, but rather the keep the hornets pissed.
Don't confuse the tech geeks with the 30 somethings who are also working professionals that are locked, stocked, and loaded up to the gills with heavy metals.
Yup, see the Lindbergh baby kidnapping. Really got out of hand then.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindbergh_kidnapping
All this is true.. but the system hasn't imploded .. Yet! Hyperinflation coming to .....everyone.
Theatrical endings are for entertainment. This situation will not have a Hollywood ending. Up until now the current administration has tried to provide a floor under our collective security. Problem is, the very act of doing so diminishes our collective faith in ourselves and in government. Our market faith hangs by the grace of Ben Bernanke and his arranged stock and bond purchases. Look around, read, listen, think independently without seeking approval - The the system has crashed they are now trying to hit the reset button at a trillion dollars a pop. Pun intended. You can't have governments circle jerking us by buying each others' stocks and bonds through debt, giving illegal insider information to politically connected hedge fund managers and condone blatantly illegal computerized trading and not expect some blow back. This is going to be a long slow grind where individual and collective standards of living and security diminish, mental and social disorders increase and we collectively erode like soapstone under the acidic hydrocarbon drenched rain of the gulf of Mexico. Too bad, did not have to end this way.
In case no one has notice, the drop in the BDI has been accelerating all week.
Not that it hasn't been noticed but nobody cares. Unless you're trading soybeans. Soybean prices correlate pretty closely with the BDI. Other than that, pretty meaningless to the overall indices.
It's hard to manufacture stuff if they're not shipping the raw materials...
Apple just order 1 million more iPad glass screens per month to meet demand.
Apple is 20% of the Nasdaq and nearly 20% of the SPX.
Apple has the second largest market cap of any US company.
Apple's stock is up again today and up 240% in a year and a half.
There's a HUGE difference between the stock market and the economy. Economy is stagnant and BDI is a pretty decent indicator of that. The market is moving thanks to demand for idiotic iGadgets around the world. It's simple math. That's why I'm so perplexed as to why people on this forum can't make that connection.
The Slow March Towards A Double Dip In 2011
http://www.scribd.com/doc/37527186/Wolfe-Trahan
I doubt that Apple's earnings are going to do much to offset this administration's expenditures...
"I doubt that Apple's earnings are going to do much to offset this administration's expenditures..."
I agree 100% with that statement. However, we're still dealing with a behemoth company comprising the second largest chunk of the SPX. If they're still selling a shitload of iGadgets, their stock will continue to go up. Being such an enormous part of the index, it makes big downside moves extremely difficult.
Unless Apple falters somewhere along the line. The stock market is disconnected from the economy with such a big growth stock representing an enormous chunk of the index. It's pretty straight forward.
Apple will falter when Steve Jobs becomes terminally ill or dies. Given his relatively recent brush with mortality and his sickly demeanor that cannot be all that far off in the future. There may or may not be a further wave immediately thereafter but the shine will then fade as the cult of personality fades. This is not desirable but I believe this is what will happen.
Can't disagree with that at all. But until then, I'll keep my position with a very tight trailing stop. And when that happens, that's when we'll see the overall markets tank.
Fair enough.
Android with its "free" operating system platform for phone manufacturers, this was a game changer that caught microsoft and apple flatfooted. Microsoft blasted google for not putting a price tag on android after 17% market share in 1 year, from a newcomer, whats bill saying now ...
Android continues to grab greater chunks of the U.S. smartphone market while its competitors watch their share shrink or stagnate.
Once the cheap ipad spinoffs start to hit the street (with android)in the 4th quarter this will also become a drag. Google will own the portable market within 5 years. I'm not saying apple is a bad company but going forward they will not keep growing at such a crazy pace, no way ...Not in this economy.Get real. Apple is a scam built on solid marketing and a novelty design strategy and a visionary entrepreneur. That is not a sustainable competitive advantage. The stuff Apple sells should be free and funded through application purchases. At best Apple is a sitting duck with nothing but good will. Google on the other hand has huge content options plus it's innovation pipeline runs hard. Sorry, I just can't see much of long term upside but I'm open to being convinced otherwise.
Are there any reputable dealers of REAL silver coins out there? Suggestions anyone?
apmex.com
+1
cheapest premiums i can find online.
Yes, IF YOU BUY MAXIMUM QUANITIES only.
You've inspired me. I looked up prices for 100 oz. of 2010 Silver American Eagles. Spot price of silver was approx $20.74.
APMEX - $22.85 +10.17%
MONEX - $22.68 +9.35%
NWT Mint - $24.03 +15.86%
I've dealt with all 3 companies over the last several years. APMEX has much better availability. Had to call MONEX and it seems they rarely have items in stock. Don't do business with NWT Mint, took me 3 mos. to take delivery of only 3 100 oz. bars of silver. They also have high premiums on the Eagles.
APMEX is THE place to go. Don't even bother with MONEX. That place is a damn scam.
Bullion Direct is also good, plus the Nucleo exchange there is interesting.
Dev,
APMEX is the easiest to deal with,and their shipping/hndling, quicker deliveries make up for the disparity.
I just wish thay had a break on 1oz Gold at 10oz, instead of 20oz.
Makes it difficult to get the best const avg mechanisms.
Register with the National Inflation Association (NIA), they provide suggestions.
-1 I would strongly recommend you not "register" with them.
+1 Just google George4Title & fraud
I'm curious. Why do you feel that way about the NIA? I get their newsletter. Can't get the videos because I'm on dial up.
Do a little homework on them - individuals behind it! You'll find long history of F-R-A-U-D! Pump n' dump!
I'm curious. Why do you feel that way about the NIA? I get their newsletter. Can't get the videos because I'm on dial up.
You don't need to register here is the link:
http://inflation.us/reviews/
In the good ol days you could buy it on ebay. I used to buy $50 Gold Eagles in quantities of 10 back when the price was in the upper 300's - low 400's.
When I needed to cash out some gold last year, I went through Kitco. Sent it registered US Mail and check sent within a couple of weeks.
Still can: http://shop.ebay.com/i.html?_nkw=Silver&_armrs=1&_from=&_ipg=
3,137,776 results found for SilverThanks all.
I do my trades in gold and silver depending on the strenght of the currency.
For example: the dollar just dropped a bit = the american market is good to buy, the European market is good to sell.
Also the coins are NOT only bought for the weight. Also buy coins with a collectors value. If silver of gold would drop big, the coins don't lose value that fast.
I bought for example 20 franc Tunisia gold coins for 185$ 4 months ago, these are now already worth 1000$
The collectors value works as a hedge.
I just put 40 ounces of $1 silver eagles in tubes. Got them on eBay from a very reputable seller and paid average of $22.85 each (free shipping). Paid by direct credit card to the seller. Minimum paper trail like that. I'll buy some more when the boyz knee-cap silver here soon.
For the adventurous, search craigslist nationally, using craiglook. For example:
http://craiglook.com/sale.html?q=silver+ounce
I have heard good things about Gainsville Coins:
http://www.gainesvillecoins.com/
Apmex I concur with though.
Deflation MY ASS!
In Belgium the index is up 2.7% already and food prices are rising another 10% the comming months.
I wonder how many companies will be able to afford that in january when the paychecks get adjusted.
There isn't a single company that still has green grass so to speak, and salary increases like that will kill them.
March 2011 will be a masacer!
Tell me about your January paycheck adjustment in Belgium.
Every year our wages are adjusted to the consumer index. We don't get to many salary raises but the index is a constant.
This year was the first time in history the index was negative 0,2% and the year before it was 4.7%
If inflation goes up 1%, our salaries increase 1%. It's that simple.
The 1% is a net increase, meaning the brutto increase is X1.19
That's why everybody in my country constantly knows how much the inflation is. They actually post these numbers every month, and we mostly talk about that during coffee.
Does Belgian law mandate the 1% CPI adjustment?
Yep. And it goes for everything, even if you have to pay alimony for example, that also goes up, pensions, unemployment cheques...
omg, you guys are set for Quantum-hyperinflation!
ouch.
and who needs silly hedonic CPI adjustments and manipulations when the increase is guaranteed.
yikes.
SD,
Socialism at it's best eh?.