Guest Post: Investment Legends - “Dollar Collapse Inevitable”

Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research

What will happen to the U.S. economy and the dollar in the near
term? Will inflation increase dramatically? What is the outlook for
gold, and where should you put your money? BIG GOLD
asked a world-class panel of economists, authors, and investment
advisors what they expect for the future. Caution: strong opinions
ahead...

Jim Rogers is a self-made billionaire, author of the best-sellers Adventure Capitalist and  Investment Biker,
and a sought-after financial commentator. He was a co-founder of the
Quantum Fund, a successful hedge fund, and creator of the Rogers
International Commodities Index (RICI).

Bill Bonner is
the president and founder of Agora, Inc., a worldwide publisher of
financial advice and opinions. He is also the author of the
Internet-based Daily Reckoning and a regular columnist in MoneyWeek magazine.

Peter Schiff is CEO of Euro Pacific Precious Metals (www.europacmetals.com) and host of the daily radio show The Peter Schiff Show (www.schiffradio.com). He is the author of the economic parable How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes and the recent financial bestseller The Little Book of Bull Moves: Updated and Expanded. He’s a frequent guest on CNBC, Fox Business, and is quoted often in print media.

Jeffrey Christian is managing director of CPM Group (www.cpmgroup.com)
and a prominent analyst on precious metals and commodities markets. CPM
Group produces comprehensive yearbooks on gold, silver, and platinum
group metals, and provides a wide range of consulting services. Jeffrey
publishedCommodities Rising, an investors’ guide to commodities, in 2006.

Walter J. "John" Williams,
private consulting economist and “economic whistleblower,” has been
working with Fortune 500 companies for 30 years. His newsletter Shadow Government Statistics (shadowstats.com) provides in-depth analysis of the government’s “creative” economic reporting practices.

Steve Henningsen
is chief investment strategist and partner at The Wealth Conservancy in
Boulder, CO, assisting clients interested in wealth preservation.
Current assets under management exceed $200 million.

Frank Trotter is
an executive vice president of EverBank and a founding partner of
EverBank.com, a national branchless bank that was acquired by the
current EverBank in 2002. He received an M.B.A. from Washington
University and has over 30 years experience in the banking industry.

Dr. Krassimir Petrov
is an Austrian economist and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Ohio State
University. He was assistant professor in economics at the American
University in Bulgaria, then an associate professor in finance at Prince
Sultan University in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. He is currently an associate
professor at Ahlia University in Manama, Bahrain. He’s been a
contributing editor for Agora Financial and Casey Research.

Bob Hoye is chief financial strategist of Institutional Advisors and writes Pivotal Events, a weekly market overview. His articles have been published by Barron’s, Financial Post, Financial Times, and National Post.

BIG
GOLD: A lot of economists, including the government, believe the worst
is behind us economically. Do you agree? If not, what should we be on
the lookout for in 2011?

Jim Rogers: It
is better for those getting all the government largesse, but the overall
situation is worse. More currency turmoil. State and local problems,
plus pension problems.

Bill Bonner: None of the
problems that caused the crises in Europe and America have been
resolved. They have been delayed and expanded by more debt and more
money printing and will lead to more and worse crises. Deleveraging
takes time. 2011 will, most likely, be a transition year... not unlike
2010. But the risk is that one of these latent crises will become an
active crisis.

Peter Schiff: To me, it's like
watching someone walk into the same sliding glass door again and again.
Wall Street must know by now that large infusions of liquidity from the
Fed spur present consumption at the expense of investment for the
future. We are an indebted family going out for an expensive meal to
celebrate getting approved for a new credit card. It might feel good (at
the time), but we're still simply delaying the inevitable.

Jeffrey Christian:
We believe the worst is behind us economically, in the short term. The
recession ended in late 2009, and 2010 saw U.S. economic growth in line
with what CPM had expected, but higher than the more pessimistic
consensus had been. In 2011 we expect continued expansion. We think some
economists and observers are too enthusiastic about economic prospects
right now.

For the U.S. in 2011, we are looking for real GDP of
2.5% - 2.8%, inflation to remain low, and for the economy to avoid
deflation. Interest rates are expected to start rising, perhaps
significantly in the second half of 2011. The dollar is expected to be
volatile, rising somewhat against the euro but continuing to weaken
against the Canadian and Australian dollars, the rupee, yuan, rand, and
other currencies.

European sovereign debt issues will continue to
plague financial markets, but market reactions will be less severe than
they were regarding Greece in April 2010.

John Williams: An
intensifying economic downturn – what formally will be viewed as the
second dip of a double-dip depression – already has started to unfold.
The problem with the economy remains structural, where household income
is not growing fast enough to beat inflation, and where debt expansion –
encouraged for many years by the Fed as a way to get around the
economic growth problems inherent from a lack of income growth –
generally is not available, as a result of the systemic solvency crisis.
Accordingly, individual consumers, who account for more than 70% GDP,
do not have the ability, and increasingly lack the willingness, to fuel
the needed growth in consumption on which the U.S. economy is so
dependent.

Steve Henningsen: The governments
worldwide (I don’t pay much attention to economists) want us to believe
that the worst is behind us because the financial system is built upon
the foundation of trust and confidence. Both of these were battered
badly when it was shown that much of the world’s prosperity over the
past few decades was simply a mirage that, once dispersed, left behind
only debt with no means of future production. Now they want us to
believe that they fixed the problem via more debt. 

What I will be
watching for this year is sovereign and U.S. municipal debt corpses
floating to the surface sometime in the months ahead. 

Frank Trotter: Right
now I have a somewhat dark but not dismal outlook. I think that over
2011, we will continue to experience a Jimmy Carter-style malaise that
combines continuing high unemployment, tentative business investment,
rising prices, low housing numbers when looked at on an absolute basis,
and creeping interest rates.

As a very large mortgage servicer, we
are not seeing significant improvements in payment patterns that would
indicate the worst is fully behind us, and with mortgage rates moving
upward, we see less ability for current mortgage holders to refinance
and reduce payments.

Krassimir Petrov: No, the
worst is yet to come. No structural changes have been made, no problems
have been fixed. Printing money, a.k.a. Quantitative Easing, is a quick
fix that has postponed the problem, yet also made it a lot worse. I
would say that we are still in the early stages of the crisis and have
another 4-8 years to go.

Bob Hoye: The worst of the post-bubble economic adversity is not behind us.

BG:
Price inflation is creeping up, but the enormous amount of money
printing hasn't really hit the system yet. Does that happen in 2011,
further down the road, or not at all?

Jim Rogers: It is happening. The U.S. and CNBC lie about it. Most other countries do not lie and acknowledge it is worsening.

Bill Bonner: Most
likely, substantial consumer price inflation will not show up in
2011. The explosion of money printing is being contained by the bomb
squad of deleveraging. That will probably continue in 2011. But not
forever.

Peter Schiff: 2010 was the year that
China began cutting back its Treasury purchases in favor of gold, hard
assets, and emerging market currencies. The Fed has stepped in as a
major purchaser of Treasuries. This represents a new phase on the path
to dollar collapse, and it will manifest in 2011 in the form of more
"unexplainable" inflation – as we are now seeing in the prices of
everything from corn to gasoline.

Jeffrey Christian:
We are now beginning to see some increases in monetary aggregates,
suggesting that some of the monetary accommodations are beginning to
filter into the economy. We expect this trend to accelerate over the
course of 2011. This will bring some increase in inflation, but we
expect the major manifestation will be through higher U.S. Treasury
interest rates as the Fed and Treasury seek to sell bonds to sterilize
the inflationary implications of the monetary easing and to finance
ongoing massive federal deficits.

John Williams: The
problems of the money creation will become increasingly obvious in
exchange-rate weakness of the U.S. dollar. Related upside pricing
pressure already is being seen on dollar-denominated commodities such as
oil. There is high risk of consumer prices rising rapidly before
year-end 2011, setting the stage for a hyperinflation. The outside date
for the onset of a U.S. hyperinflation is 2014.

Steve Henningsen: My
guess is further down the road, as the deleveraging cycle continues
with deflationary-housing winds in our face and the banks still hoarding
money like my 9-year-old daughter stockpiles American Girl doll
paraphernalia. I still expect inflation to continue in areas such as
energy, bread, circuses, and whatever else provides sustenance to the
Romans – I mean people.

Frank Trotter: Most
research has shown that over time the increase in money supply is not a
short-term economic stimulus, but rather has a moderate effect in the
18- to 36-month range. In addition, this theory contends that a growth
in the monetary base – which is what has happened so far – only
increases economic activity when accompanied by a decent multiplier;
this is not occurring. The real risk is that with rising rates and
continued soft economy, the Fed will feel obliged to continue to QE3,
QE4, and so on, all of which may have a significant inflationary impact.

I am more concerned about general price inflation here in the U.S. and the potential it has to reduce global growth.

Krassimir Petrov:
This is a tough one. I would have thought that price inflation would
have been raging by now, but this is obviously not the case. I have the
feeling that 2011 will be a repeat of early 2008, with commodity prices
(CRB) making new all-time highs. A falling dollar will trigger a rush
into commodities as a hedge against inflation. I am really tempted to
make a totally outrageous forecast that oil could make a run for $200 as
QE3 unleashes another dollar scare, or maybe even a dollar crisis.

Bob Hoye: Massive "printing" has been widely publicized and is "in the market."

BG:
The U.S. dollar ended 2010 about where it started; does it resume its
downtrend in 2011, or are fears about its demise overblown?

Jim Rogers: No, but further down the road.

Bill Bonner: No opinion. But there is more risk in the dollar than potential reward. 

Peter Schiff: It's
hard to pinpoint exactly when the dollar will collapse, but it will
take a miracle to avoid that outcome in the near term. It really depends
on when the creditors of the United States realize that they are not
going to get their principal returned to them in real terms, but rather
in grossly devalued dollars. We have already seen the average duration
of U.S. Treasury debt drop below that of Greece. No one wants to buy a
30-year bond with negative real interest rates as far as the eye can
see.

Jeffrey Christian: We expect the dollar to
be volatile against most currencies in 2011, but that its demise has
been prematurely predicted. The dollar may move sideways to slightly
higher against the euro, yen, and pound, while continuing to deteriorate
against the Canadian and Australian dollars, the rupee, yuan, rand, and
other emerging economy currencies.

John Williams: There
remains high risk of a dollar selling panic unfolding in the year
ahead, as the U.S. economy tanks anew, as the Fed continuously expands
its easing, and as dollar holders dump the U.S. currency and
dollar-denominated paper assets. Such would be a precursor to the
inflation problem.

Steve Henningsen: Similar to
my thoughts last year, I still believe the dollar is headed down
long-term, but it could bounce around over the next year. If sovereign
debts become a problem again, like I think they will later this year,
then everyone will go running back to “Mother Dollar” once again for one
last hug before she lies back down on her sickbed.

Frank Trotter: As
the economy waffles and the global investing community's attention is
drawn from one crisis to the next, I expect the U.S. dollar to bounce up
and down in the current range. After that, however, my analysis
suggests that measured by the key factors of fiscal and monetary policy,
combined with a significant trade deficit, the U.S. does not look as
good as our major trading partners, and I thus expect the dollar to
decline, perhaps significantly, in the intermediate term. Big
geopolitical events may accelerate this or create a flight to U.S.
dollar quality, so hold on to your hats.

Krassimir Petrov:
I think the dollar resumes lower. I expect QE3 and QE4 – a
dollar-printing fest that will eventually sink the dollar. Sure, all
fiat currencies are in deep trouble and prone to overprinting, but the
reserve status of the dollar actually makes it more vulnerable now.
Whether the dollar sinks against other currencies is a fool's game not
worth playing. It is like being in the hospital, where all patients are
suffering from cancer, and trying to guess who will feel best at the end
of next year, or trying to guess who will succumb first. That's why it
is so much safer to play the dollar against gold.

Bob Hoye: Fears
of the dollar's demise have been widely discussed and are "in the
market." The dollar, itself, will not be repudiated – just the mavens
that have been "managing" it.

BG: Gold has risen
10 years in a row, so some are calling it a bubble, yet it's roughly
$1,000 below its inflation-adjusted high. What's your outlook for the
metal in 2011?

Jim Rogers: It is hardly a “bubble” when very few own it still. Who knows? Overdue for a correction, but who knows?

Bill Bonner: The
smart money is in gold. It will stay in gold until the bull market that
began 10 years ago finally reaches its peak. It is extremely unlikely
that the top will come in 2011; it's probably years in the future. In
the meantime, gold is bound to have a losing year or two. Don't worry
about it. Buy gold. Be happy.

Peter Schiff: The
funny thing about a bubble is that when it's real, no one can see it.
The same commentators who were blind to the tech bubble, the housing
bubble, and now the Treasury bubble are quick to call gold a bubble. The
truth is that many of them have a personal aversion to gold because
they directly benefit from our fiat money system. Goldman Sachs was paid
100 cents on the dollar in the AIG bailout, which never would have
happened in a gold-based system. It's a lot easier to print a billion
paper dollars than dig up a million ounces of gold.

Gold will
continue to climb in 2011 as the currency war continues and investors
continue to seek stability. Unless there is a major sea change in the
way the U.S. does business, I think the gold trade is a safe one.

Jeffrey Christian:
A price of $1,550 is possible, although given the enormous investor
buying pressure, prices could spike to almost anywhere. After that, we
expect prices to fall back, initially to around $1,340 or $1,380. We
expect gold prices to stay above $1,280 or so for most of 2011, and to
average around $1,369 for the full year.

John Williams: As
the U.S. dollar increasingly is debased, and where gold tends to
preserve the purchasing power of the dollars invested in it, the upside
to gold in the year ahead is open-ended, restricted only by any limits
to the massive downside potential for the U.S. dollar. Any intermittent
gold price volatility, extreme or otherwise, will be short-lived. There
is no bubble – only increasing weakness in the U.S. dollar – with the
gold price fundamentally headed much higher in the years ahead.

Steve Henningsen: I
believe gold will once again prove the bubble-boys wrong and end the
year positive (I have no idea by how much and don’t really care).
However, I think this year will be more volatile and that Gold Bugs
better remain seated on the precious metals express or they might get
squished.

Frank Trotter: I still think that with
price inflation on the rise and big political events occurring, there
may be room to continue to rise. If stock markets take off, then there
will be a reduction in appreciation or even a significant decline, but
based on the factors I mentioned above, I don't see that as highly
likely.

Krassimir Petrov: Gold still has
outstanding fundamentals. I believe that over the course of 2010, the
fundamentals have strengthened significantly: (1) "No Exit [Strategy]
for Ben" as he unleashed QE2, and will likely unleash QE3, QE4, etc.,
(2) no more central bank selling of gold, (3) more central banks become
buyers of gold, and (4) trial balloons for a global gold-backed
currency.

I have no idea how people could even claim that gold is
in a bubble – barely 1 out of 100 people have any idea about investing
in gold. During the real estate bubble, every second person was involved
in it. Maria "Money Honey" Bartiromo has yet to report from the COMEX
gold pits; gold fund managers and analysts have yet to obtain rock-star
status; and glamorous models are not yet dating the gold guys. Who is
the Henry Blodget [co-host of Tech Ticker] of the gold sector, do we have one yet?

Yes, gold will eventually become a bubble, but that feels 5-8 years away.

Bob Hoye: In 2011, gold's real price will resume its uptrend.

BG: What's your best investment advice for 2011?

Jim Rogers: Buy the rmb [renminbi, the Chinese currency].

Bill Bonner: We
are in a period much like the period following WWI, in which the great
debts and losses of the war had to be reckoned with. It is an era of
great risk. The U.S. faces many of the same challenges faced by Germany
and England after WWI. Like England, it has huge debts. It is a waning
imperial power. And it has the world's reserve currency. And like
Germany, it is attempting to fix its problems by printing more money.
This is not a good time to be long either U.S. stocks or U.S. bonds. 

Peter Schiff: Don't
be suckered into the idea that recovery is just around the corner. The
current climate is like living in a hurricane or earthquake zone; it's
important to stay vigilant because you never know when disaster will
strike. Physical gold is the financial equivalent of a flashlight,
first-aid kit, and store of canned goods. It's a basic way to protect
yourself from any eventuality. From there, if you're looking for
returns, there are plenty of foreign markets with strong fundamentals,
as well as commodities that feed those markets. 

Investing in the U.S. is now driven largely by force of habit. It's a habit you should resolve to break.

Jeffrey Christian:Do
not invest based on what you believe, but on what you know. Gold is a
market, like other markets. It rises and falls. You probably want to
stay long gold on a long-term basis, but may want to cull the weaker
gold assets from your portfolio in the first quarter, and put some
hedges in place to protect a long-term core long gold position against
the potential of significant price weakness over the next two years or
so. Such a period of weakness would be an excellent time to add to one’s
gold assets.

John Williams: As an economist, I
look for the U.S. dollar ultimately to lose virtually all of its current
purchasing power. Accordingly, for those living in a U.S.
dollar-denominated world, it would make sense to move to preserve wealth
and assets over the long-term. Physical gold is a primary hedge (as is
silver). Holding some stronger currencies outside the U.S. dollar, as
well as having some assets outside the United States, also may make
sense.

Steve Henningsen: Dramamine (for volatile
markets), a stash of cash (for potential investment opportunities), and
move some of your assets offshore if you haven’t already.

Frank Trotter: My
advice is first to look at the other side of your balance sheet – the
liability and risk equation – before seeking out absolute gains. What
are your goals, what resources do you already have to meet those goals,
and what events (health, income stream, upheavals) might impact these
risks? Place some assets to hedge these risks directly, then look to
diversify globally into markets with higher growth potential than we see
here at home, and that may balance your global purchasing power risk.
Almost like a religion, we have had the phrase "Stocks are the only
legitimate hedge against inflation" beaten into our heads. I say, look
at assets that define inflation like commodities and currencies and
evaluate where these fit into your risk portfolio.

Krassimir Petrov:
Last year I recommended silver, and I would stick to silver again,
despite the phenomenal run in 2010. Then it gets tricky. I usually don't
recommend diversification, but now I would again recommend a broad
portfolio of commodities. Investing in 2011 should be easy: stay out of
real estate, out of bonds, out of fiat currencies, and out of stocks;
stay fully invested in commodities, overweight gold and silver.

What
to watch in 2011: stay focused on the sovereign debt crisis and bond
yields. Spiking yields will trigger the next stage of the crisis.

Bob Hoye: Once past the early part of 2011, the best returns are likely to be obtained from the junior gold exploration sector.

[These
world-class experts are right to bank on gold and silver – because the
U.S. dollar keeps losing more and more of its value. Watch this eye-opening video on how China and Russia are plotting to dump the dollar… why you should be worried… and what to do about it.]

Comments

[SwingForce]

Where's the Portugal vote? They're late!

[Turd Ferguson]

Just trying to make money for as many as possible:

http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com/2011/03/are-we-all-happy.html

[Gene Parmesan]

And for that we thank you. Well, that and being able to tell people that "The Turd" is saying this or that, and I'm listening.

[gmrpeabody]

Don't be cheesy.

[dlmaniac]

Why the heck was Jeffrey Christian invited? He's that banker shill at the CFTC hearing letting his lips slip and revealing there's 100 to 1 paper to physical trading, ain't he?

[Bendromeda Strain]

Same thing I said - "one of these things is not like the other"

Plus that, the company boy started off with the company line straightaway...

[Harlequin001]

Better late than never, knew they'd see sense eventually.

[spudboy]

+1

[Bendromeda Strain]

Cheesy concerning the Turd? Sounds binding...

[TruthInSunshine]

I've gone 'Taleb' as of tonight.

Time for the cheap deep OTM puts, IMO, and yes, I'm calling out Bernanke for being incompetent and less than the magician (much more like the charlatan) some claim he is, as I did in 2007, where I made enough money to expand my horizons.

And yes, I'm also doing what I'm saying.

Bernanke's fucked, he was going to be fucked anyways *after fucking America and the world*, but Japan was the swan that shat on him, and accelerated his demise.

Look for NerObama to throw Bernanke out to the wolves soon, in a vicious display as to how ugly politics can really get. And the excuse NerObama will use is -

-- Bernanke stated he would not support bailing out states, counties and cities.

Every once in a while, I get a good thesis going, and sometimes, they even pan out.

p.s. - You technical/pattern guys and chartists - give me an overlay of 2007/2008 before the crash happened and the last 2 or 3 months. Thanks.

[oklaboy]

Turd, love your writing, and site. Great advice, and well done.

[TruthInSunshine]

Cramer said NFLX is a double from here yesterday.

The last time he called for a double in a monster run up tech space company was Google in 2006 and we know how that ended.

By the way, it's time for a refresher of his epic call in 2000 on the only companies you needed to buy because "most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come!"

http://www.thestreet.com/story/891820/the-winners-of-the-new-world.html

The Winners of the New World

By Jim Cramer 02/29/00 - 09:42 AM EST

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now. OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!:

724 Solutions (SVNX), Ariba (ARBA_), Digital Island (ISLD), Exodus (EXDS), InfoSpace.com (INSP_), Inktomi (INKT), Mercury Interactive (MERQ), Sonera (SNRA), VeriSign (VRSN_) and Veritas Software (VRTS_).

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending. Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

[plocequ1]

Thank you guest. Buy Netflix

[SheepDog-One]

Buy Netflix, their 12 hour meltdown offline status last nite makes no difference. Final insane euphoria as Bens 'cntrl/print' fat fingers keys the worthless toilet paper stocks higher as the currency swan-songs. WHATEVER!

[Pladizow]

Yeah buy NetFlix!

Along with CMGI, Juniper and Akamai?

[hugovanderbubble]

Its better to hold USD than Yens or Euros or Polish Zloties....

The big problem is which fiat currency will be the last one to survive.

My humble bet USDollar.

[cahadjis]

 agree, see my comment below. A contrarian view.

[Michael]

The complete and total economic collapse of the USA is a mathematical certainty. The day of reckoning is fast approaching and President Obama has done nothing to prepare the nation for seven lean years. Thank God I don't have any kids to take care of, I'm sorry for the ones who do.

[dearth vader]

Don't feel sorry, Michael, into the future they'll have kids to take care of them.

[monkeys.pick.bottoms]

I disagree about the Polish Zloty. I own a few in silver. All are legal tender (not that I would want to spend them, of course - there is some kind of law for that:D). I recommend. Not fine but sterling... still you get 20 units of account in one silver coin for a paper 100.

http://www.numizmatyczny.pl/go/_info/?id=632

[I think I need ...]

everyone over here is doom and gloom......everyone on my wifes facebook are planning disney vacations? who is right?

[gmrpeabody]

Well, if you have to ask..., then be sure to give Mickey and the gang my best.

[Bloodgroove]

Now that's funny!

[Doña K]

Buddist philosopher says; "They are both right."

Observer says; But Sir, both can not be right.

Buddist philosopher says; You are also right.

Lesson: Zero headers are right because they have perception and knowledge. All others are also right because they lack perception and knowledge.

[Oracle of Kypseli]

Another good one from a zerohedger, I think it was Tyler, goes something like this:

The house is burning and the family is arguing on how to renovate the kitchen.

[dark pools of soros]

which is great for the economy..  hopefully they'll have to redo the deck and reseed the lawn too.  very bullish

[andybev01]

Do they still use that fiat, Mickey Money?...

[Harlequin001]

Only at the Fed. In Disneyland they want hard cash...

[oklaboy]

paying cash or credit?

[MarkTwainsMustache]

One investment 'legend' (Jim Rogers) in the bunch...you'll need Wikipedia to find out who the other people are.  False advertising. 

[Cash_is_Trash]

Peter Schiff dude, he called the housing crisis.

[MarkTwainsMustache]

I like Peter Schiff I just wouldn't call him an 'Investment Legend'

[tickhound]

Schiff will likely achieve that "status" after they wack him out.

[Harlequin001]

Soros was the brains behind the outfit, if I remember correctly.

[lincolnsteffens]

I am not nor will I ever be an investment legend. All you have to do is have personal experience ( me ) or read a bit about financial events and the cause. I was in a panic to sell in 2006 before the market imploded. Was I early, yeah but am I early in nat. gas for picking up some a year ago? Am I early with DXD, SKF, SRS?  Prices go up, volume goes down. Watch, listen, read and chances are sooner or later you will start to understand. NEVER THINK YOU ARE SMARTER THAN THE MARKET and never give up!

[Harlequin001]

You're an investment legend if you stand up and spout a lot on TV.

That's about it...

[DavidC]

If you don't know the others, do some background reading. I've been following Bonner (as well as Rogers) since the early 2000s, Williams and Schiff since 2007.

Don't just dismiss people because YOU haven't heard of them.

DavidC

[pasttense]

Since you have followed them for years, did it result in you getting rich?

[gmrpeabody]

Well..., a little richer probably.

[Thomas]

Curiously, Rogers, the guru, was the last to join the precious metals party. I would argue Bonner and Schiff helped me get pretty damned well off. Rich? Time will tell.

[Harlequin001]

He's still banging on about Renminbi isn't he?

[Biggvs]

True dat, though I did recognize the first three names... all gold lovers of course. Not that I have anything against gold (I went long in the 600's), but really no need to read any further, as the conclusions should be obvious when you see a quote like:

"BIG GOLD asked..."

[Lets_Eat_Ben]

speak for yourself sam's stache

[Snidley Whipsnae]

You don't know that Bill Bonner called for a gold bull market in 2000?

Sit down, be quiet.

[Maos Dog]

Bonners recommended "trade of the decade" in 2000 was gold.

[gmrpeabody]

You are correct, sir.

[DosZap]

Only one person on the list I have not read, nor heard of.

[TruthInSunshine]

Jeffrey Christian...

...odd man out.

What was he doing there? He sounded like an Obama Economic Advisor being interviewed by Steve LIESman on CNBC.

[reachsb]

Agreed. The poor guy's reputation has been shredded since his March 2010 testimony in front of the CFTC about the leverage in Precious metals paper market. SGTBULL mentions this poor bloke in almost all of his videos on his youtube channel.

[Lets_Eat_Ben]

yeah, towards the end of the thread i skipped his answers. Jeffrey Christian is EE in my eyes

[duncecap rack]

No kidding This

"We believe the worst is behind us economically, in the short term. The recession ended in late 2009, and 2010 saw U.S. economic growth in line with what CPM had expected, but higher than the more pessimistic consensus had been."

had me diving back to see who the hell he was. Hey I just remembered right now- this guy had a big feud going with with gata at one point.

[SonnySkyy]

" inflation to remain low"

Didn't read another fucking word from Jeffy beyond that. 

[DavidPierre]

Jeffy "100:1" Christian

GATA's... MORON of The Decade award winner.

.................................................

"Silver’s performance has been spectacular, but it is certainly no surprise to Café members. The GATA camp was pounding the table about silver at the same time we gave our testimony against HSBC and JP Morgan Chase at the CFTC hearing one year ago this Friday.

The price back then was $16.25. Then we pounded the table once more at The Silver Summit this past September with the price at $23 and change.

During that same conference, Jon "The Nitwit" Nadler and CPM’s Jeff Christian...

who has called GATA a bunch of liars

... were espousing their bearish views for the price of silver to attendees.

Then there was Eric Sprott at the New Orleans Investment Conference speaking last fall of $50 silver in the months ahead. The price was also around $23 per ounce at the time."

per www.lemetropolecafe.com

[gmrpeabody]

+++

[rosiescenario]

...stood out like a tatoo'd whore in church....maybe he was put in for comic relief???

[JuicyTheAnimal]

Jeffrey Christian is a fucktard.  Did I misread or did he actually say the Fed would be selling bonds later in the year?  To whom?  Or do they plan on creating the Federal Reserve Reserve and sell bonds to them? 

[disabledvet]

to you "fucktard."  let me guess--"you ain't phuckin' buyin!" am i the only screaming about interest rates being too low?  i guess not....perhaps if we called it "fucktard risk...

[Lndmvr]

Wells fargo sends me notice they are changing my free online checking to basic checking for $5 a month. I go to close it out and the girls at the bank and have blank stares. I show them the online notice and they scratched thier heads. As I'm closing it , one girl asks me if I know my credit rating and if I'd like 3 reports for a dollar. I say I'll close this account and give you a dollar. Shes says, no you have to link it to a debit or credit at $13 / month but you can cancel it before 30 days. I tell her I took all my money out of your bank and bought gold and silver. They don't have a clue. Look for a Wells Fargo bank run soon.

[DosZap]

You are so right, if their pushing that internet scam shit program, their worse than idiots.

She has no clue, she is just told what to hawk.

[burncycl]

I did the same thing to my bank when I walked in and had them issue a very large cashiers check made out to my precious metals broker (for physical of course). The 20 year old kid asked me why I was making such a large purchase. I explained to him in short order about terrible interest rates and the declining value of the dollar due to inflation.

I recommended to him that he invest in gold and silver. He told me he didn't have enough money. I told him silver is a bargin. He just scratched his head.

[reader2010]

Jim Rogers is Long USD right now.  I am sure Peter Schiff has much better long-run track records.

[BigJim]

I think given the Portuguese situation, short EURUSD makes some sense.

[DosZap]

Jim knows it can only go up long term( long enough for him to score and roll) compared to where it is now,unless another HUGE Blk Swan hits.

[cahadjis]

I would tend to agree with Bob Hoye and take a contrarian view that dollar will strengthen as QE3 becomes politically non-viable... and deflation continues in housing and other illiquid assets. Even technically, so many people are invested for a lower dollar that a snapback will be furious. My 2p, any thoughts out there?

[TruthInSunshine]

Despite my best efforts, I have not been able to produce what I would deem a credible model of USD destruction vs USD production (or injection, which is a better term given what the Bernanklecide is doing).

I do not know what is playing out in real time, but I would guess, as I have to, that deleveraging and money injections by the Fed are nearly offsetting each other.

One problem is that I do believe that unrealized losses, such as in housing stock and real estate lost wealth, and marked-to-fantasy assets on ledgers of banks and financials, have not yet been tallied, yet, so that could flip things over in favor of net money supply destruction, if it were to occur (and it ultimately has to - the realization).

In this period, all rational and non-subsidized actors are dealing with incredible stresses, as they have to navigate a minefield that was created by The Bernank.

[MachoMan]

The only underpinning for the view of dollar strength is either a short term panic to pay off dollar denominated debt (see yen swan dive pre intervention or us circa 2008) or a short/medium/long term attempt at austerity.  There are basically two camps on the issue...  one that it is politically impossible to remove all of the leaches from the system...  whether its little welfare queens with ipads or big welfare queens with jets (and cnbc anchorettes to ride shotgun), they refuse to be the first to take the hit.  As a result, there has to be a proposal for universal austerity...  which is err difficult... 

The other camp basically asserts that this whole charade is meant to be prolonged as possible, given the certainty of the dollar's demise, and the thing that prolongs the charade the longest is austerity/decreasing stimulus.  There may be successive rounds of austerity and stimulus, but in the end, it will be less stimulus.  The measures to impose austerity will have to be similar to wisconsin...  where governmental actors basically throw down the gauntlet and tell a particular group, they're fucked.  I think this will happen often in the coming years, first with the low hanging fruit...  hell, my wife is a mental health professional and the medicaid changes have basically gutted her profession...  it's coming...

I think it's fair to expect flights to quality (snicker) in the short/medium term.  The issue is how many cycles/rounds do we get before a complete and total repudiation of the currency?  I think we get one last push into the dollar...  rather than keeping our foot to the pedal in perpetuity.  But, I can't fathom all the plates stay spinning past 2014 (williams, above).

I think there's a decent shot we'll simply repudiate our debts, iceland style.  And, in large part, we're just on a shopping spree before declaring BK.  We'll flip them the bird and there won't be a damn thing they can do about it...  when the whole world is a worthless debtor, I'm not sure how negatively we'll be impacted.  Although, I suspect there is a decent case to be made for China's manufacturing capacity for whatever new era may emerge...  Of course, the flip side is that the charade may be able to last a lot longer through purchasing assets at firesale of the various sovereigns that go boom in the meantime...  hell, we may even be able to pick up some gold from michael jackson's re-animated corpse.  [I think this plan was similar to the initial plan for the TBTF to collapse the system during our 2008 bank run, but that was obviously not very palatable; i.e. absorb community and regional banks given the federal backstop for the big boys means runs on all the smaller banks]. 

[disabledvet]

dollar panic?  big whoop.  debt panic?  BIG.  Let me guess "you were going long Greece when the gold price soared."  Not that there's ever been a connection between the price of gold and sovreign default....just "buy Japan" right?

[kaiserhoff]

About right.  Unrealized losses on real estate and small business are deadly, not just for banks, but households as well.  When interest rates first start to creep up, the real carnage begins.

[Snidley Whipsnae]

Bingo!

[gmrpeabody]

Bingo! Bingo!

[rosiescenario]

"...as QE3 becomes politically non-viable..."

..we'll see how non-viable it is...let the DOW down 500 pts in one day and the opposition will melt away....Goldman already has this op in the werks, if it is even required...

[hound dog vigilante]

Pols that vote to raise the debt limit will be targets, and most will be challenged in upcoming elections. Many will lose.

Energized voters are trumping the 'incumbent campaign war chest' paradigm... and I find it somewhat amusing that so many people haven't yet figured this out... which is why the next election will be an even worse bloodbath for incumbents.

[6_7_42]

Look at the relationship to PM appreciation and QE; the latest round of QE from JPY put a rocket under PMs; Portugal means ECB QE...what's the likelihood the Fed will let JPY and ECB out-QE-em? Also, consider the "Dollar" is mostly valued against other fiat so it's hard to say who falls fastest to the bottom.

One other issue: ~50% of QE purchased by FED, who is buying other 50%?  Where are those $$$ going?  Sold to JPY to balance YEN?  Wasn't Yentervention an open invitation to dump dollars at a fixed ask floor?

[JuicyTheAnimal]

It's an odd numbered year.  The politicians are only pandering to those who fund campaigns (with serious numbers) not everyone who votes.  You should consider that. 

[hound dog vigilante]

Many of the best-funded campaigns of 2010 ended up losing badly. 

Perhaps ironic that newly liberalized campaign funding rules are being rendered moot by a grassroots ballotbox revolution.  I'm looking forward to another incumbent slaughter in 2012.

[10kby2k]

I'm in that nothing makes sense anymore mode I felt before tech wreck and bank collapse.

[Bill Lumbergh]

Interesting takes and most are bullish on gold and bearish on the dollar which is understandable.  While all fiat currencies are under pressure due to money printing why is there no mention of the others?  Most everywhere I read the dollar is going under but being bearish on the dollar is bullish on the euro.  Perhaps to avoid any confusion instead of dollar collapse we should state fiat collapse.  Of course by the time everyone is convinced fiat is doomed bureaucrats will announce a commodity backing causing everyone to unwind their inflation hedges.

[Verstehen]

The western nations all are printing inclusive Europe, Canada and Australia. If they would not the dollar would fall like stone. It would be visible to all. The Super trend is all are heading downwards. If a collapse occurs its possible that more than one currency will collapse. I think the Swiss are safe and their fundamentals are good and they are self sustaining. They only need to import large quantities of animal food (and oil). During geopolitical events the Frank usually rises.

[gmrpeabody]

They are becoming the safe haven. Forget the euro, watch the franc.

ps   Good observation for a rookie. (1 week)

[themiestro]

Peter Schiff: To me, it's like watching someone walk into the same sliding glass door again and again. Wall Street must know by now that large infusions of liquidity from the Fed spur present consumption at the expense of investment for the future. We are an indebted family going out for an expensive meal to celebrate getting approved for a new credit card. It might feel good (at the time), but we're still simply delaying the inevitable.

That is an awesome statement.  I love this guy.  Spot on brother!

[brian0918]

Check out this compilation video of Peter Schiff analogies: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vweLBpE4mso

[vh070]

Nice one, thanks - an analogy-fest!

[assumptionblindness]

I agree 100%.

I am sure that CD can comment on the psychology of spending on credit to have a good time NOW in the face of a future that will likely SUCK.  

It's spring break here in Florida and credit cards are in danger of melting from swipe friction.  Hotels and resturants are packed with people who really just don't seem to give a shit about gas prices, high unemployment and 50% inflation at Taco Bell.  Things are going to be really ugly when TSHTF.  

[TruthInSunshine]

Not that I disagree with you, but I personally wouldn't extrapolate too much based on what you're seeing 18 year olds do with their low limit credit cards on a week or two spent on Spring Break.

I'd argue that consumer spending is very soft, and would be officially far softer if higher prices weren't offsetting lower frequencies of transactions.

[Snidley Whipsnae]

I worked on beachside for 12 years... Some of the kids on Spring Break have high limit cards or their parents cards and spend lots of $... Some don't.

Bonner didn't mention the roaring 20s, a period of great excess in the US prior to the market crash/great depression...A sort of Spring Break for the entire US until it wasn't... 

[DosZap]

IMHO, Peter is one tough dude.

He has called every Blk Swan since day one, goes toe to toe with people that insult his Mother, and keeps fighting the good fight.

I mean, c'mon, if a dude whips my ass 6 of 6, I might should believe he's got my number.

Schiff has talked till his head falls off, and still gets treated like a dog.

[RingToneDeaf]

USA is Doomed. How many others we take down the rat hole is open.

Obammy is gonna start a world war, he has to to stay in power much longer.

At the very least a civil war in the US. That is the bright side.

[hound dog vigilante]

Obama is gone in 2012. 

[CIABS]

is the title of this thing referring to legends as in myths or stories about investing, for example "buy and hold stocks"?  or is it referring to legends in the espionage sense, like lee harvey oswald the marxist defector?  in that case, one name jumps out at me (initials j.c.).  or is it saying that bill bonner is a legend in investing history?  help me out.

[DrStrangelove]

great guestpost indeedy

[equity_momo]

Ok i am canvassing serious opinion please : i currently reside in the UK. Its a shit hole. I want to move back to the US.  I dont want to move back to NY or any Eastern Seaboard large conurbation. I dont think the Western seaboard is any better.

Where do i move to? I believe in the dollar collapse but that only means i believe in the collapse of all fiat and all economies in the short term (so i dont want to hear about australia or chile or china)

I wont be taking any debt with me and hopefully i wont be asking for any. Im not a very practical person but i consider myself logical , realistic and a pragmatist. 

Ultimately , i do think we see like-minded communities form. I dont want to be surrounded by doomsday gun toting hicks but i do want to be surrounded by intelligent ,grounded, survivalists.

No hippies but no GI Joes with nothing to lose . Just get on with life.

Where do i go?

[DoChenRollingBearing]

2 cents worth:

-- North Dakota is cheap and there is work (cold though)

-- Wyoming does not have many people, and they mind their own buiness

-- Montana & Idaho probably similar to above

-- Utah worth a look now that beer is legal

[equity_momo]

Im looking at that region and including CO. If i was single this would be a straightforward decision and id throw a dart into that quadrant and get on with life but i have to think of family. It does seem that area is the "go to " part of the US thought , right? A poster below mentions Texas. I have ruled that out and wont upset anyone here by saying why. ALthough it does have some strong points.

[countryboy42]

Western Colorado is very nice, and quiet. I live in Denver, but try to get out as often as possible. The high mountain communities are great, but there are only two seasons: Winter and road construction. My $0.02 worth. Good luck.

[gmrpeabody]

Spent 40 years there..., will eventually go back to the Western Slope.

[The Proletariat]

I am writing from the Pea Green area....Grand Mesa to north, Black Canyon to the east, San Juan Mountains to the south, and the Uncompahgre Plateau to the west.  Getting ready to plant the greatest (Olathe) sweet corn in the world while waiting for my bitches to start calving......peace

...although there are a lot of "retiring" pentagon people moving to the area for some reason....

[gmrpeabody]

Every area claims to have the best sweet corn.., but YOU  DO sir!

On a side note..., I suspect that the women in your life won't appreciate being referred to like that.  ;- )

[The Proletariat]

Thankfully they only speak....MOO.  Or they would really be pissed off....

[velobabe]

i have lived in colorado for 42 years. i just saw the most trippy cloud cover. damn never seen these kind of clouds. these two kids were looking up. noone looks up around here. also saw and heard a guy on the mall playing about 10, 5 gallon buckets with his drum sticks. it was the best damn sound coming out of those buckets. what great instruments. this guy was impressive, young, making some sound for us slaves.

[Joeman34]

Bucket drummers... Obviously you've never been to Michigan Ave. in Chicago.  Give it six months of constant, relentless bucket drumming and you'll be very, very sick of it...

[velobabe]

well you are kinda putting me down for my taste of different kinds of music. you should not be so judgemental. of course i have never been to michigan avenue in Chicago. i might of, but just don't remember. plus when i could of been on michigan ave. in chicago, if these bucket drummers were out on the street drumming, i would of very much of liked it. so there joeman, slooooooeman†

[dogbreath]

Velo

do you know a good recipe for green thai curry with chicken

[Snidley Whipsnae]

A college town in any of the locations/states that you mentioned should do ok. Some intelligent folks mixed with some folks that know how to get practical projects completed.

Laramie Wyoming, Boise Idaho, Grand Forks North Dakota, etc...

Bring warm clothing and learn how to yell YEE HAAAW... like a cowboy.

[gmrpeabody]

Durango comes to mind. Steamboat if you have the $. Dakotas are nice though.

Oh ya.., I forgot Missoula, Montana. One of my favs. 

[cahadjis]

Come to Spain. I'm serious. I've been to many countries, including the US, UK, Greece, Germany, Canada to work and live. I've settled for Spain. Live and let live. Bankrupt yes, but that's even better for you, cheap food and drink and sun, the things that are important.

A new perspective on life.

[equity_momo]

The Socialist States of Europe is a NO NO NO. If they ever get rid of Brussels and the Euro i would consider Spain , even remote parts of France and Italy but language is problem , i do want to be accepted into a community. And languages is not my forte.

[kaiserhoff]

Consider the broad sweep just south of the corn belt: Ozarks through southern Illinois/Indiana, even south to eastern Tennessee.  Abundant food, water, game, and most Americans can't find those places on a map;)

One of the few regions left where your neighbors will do you more good than harm, and you will be accepted.

[equity_momo]

Thanks Kaiser , i had never given that area a second or even first thought.

[BigJim]

Could be time for a road trip, check out your options in person.

I've heard a  number of ex-pats say you should live somewhere a year before commiting yourself to it.

[lincolnsteffens]

Ex-pats, smek-pats, it doesn't matter where you are from. Going to a new place and immediately putting down big roots is not a good idea. Same as divorce. Hang out, look around and sniff the wind for a year or more. Then make a decision. The Shenandoah Valley, Blue Ridge Mts., Western North Carolina, Western Virginia,        W. Maryland, W. Penn. Arkansas just too many to list. Never been to  much past the Allegheny Mts. but I would avoid the West Coast south of Northern Calif.

[Millerette]

I've lived in quite a few of the states, and have ended up in northeastern Tennessee.  As Kaiser says, abundant local food, water, game, and a lot of places you can't find on a map.  Wonderful people also - outside of the big cities, people who will work together in a crisis.  Tennessee is also one of the few states with the least amount of state/local debt, and still no state income tax. Good weather - in this end of the state, winters are short and not too cold, summers are not too hot (the locals whine when it hits 90).  You have colleges/universities in Knoxville and Johnson City if you need that atmosphere.

[ConfusedIdiot]

EM - maybe Asheville, N.C. (smoky mtns), or Charleston,S.C.(gem by the sea). Regards CI

[Joey Big Balls]

My family comes from the Southern part of Spain known as Carmona, Spain. How is it there? I am admittingly a lazy stoner, who would be comfortable tending a garden the rest of my life; evidently, I do not care for the live of a typical US corporate position. 

Thanks and God bless 

[velobabe]

hello joey big balls, like your title. i want to live in this town, girona spain, sans lance armstrong, no really if you know someone that might be interested in helping me relocate to girona spain, i would be much obliged. i don't speak any language except english. but have gotten by in europe with my hair and long legs and sunglasses. i would post my email address, but it uses my real name. i have a twitter thing. velobabee @ twitter.......note the additional e to velobabee. i think that i probably already registered with velobabe and forgot. so i just added the extra e. are you married?

Girona Spain

[BigJim]

Zerohedge - now with online dating functionality!

[DosZap]

Visa,or Expat?

[Vashta Nerada]

Texas is in the best shape of the 50

[John Law Lives]

Agreed!  John Law Lives lives in Texas.

[Montecarlo]

I live in Texas... but twin-brother has a compound in Southern Indiana.  I'm a fan of both places, but much more sustainable in the midwest (water)

[DosZap]

As a fellow Texican, PLS do not call it a COMPOUND.

Anything made of straw and mud will be attaked if it's a compound.

[David449420]

Canada.

[DavidPierre]

CANADA !

[equity_momo]

BC is on the list but ...and dont beat me down ... the other half isnt overly keen.... and real estate is not cheap in that area when youve been saving in US fiatscos.

[DavidPierre]

"...real estate is not cheap..."

But... then again you if you stay out of the Vancouver area, not really that bad and always pretty as a picture out your window.  

Back up into the mountains and/or off the grid a bit, you will find entire developed farms/ranches with houses and out buildings going for $2-300K if you like to rough it a bit and work with your hands.  BC is one big ass piece of RE.

Get a good little boat and there are islands for the taking... just go squat in a safe little bay or inlet.  But hey... You and the  'better half' got to have a sense of adventure and lots of not so common, 'common sense'.

Lived at and rebuilt this place on Vargas Island in 1994.  But you got to learn to love rain.

http://www.docfuture.com/vargas/vargas.html

This is where I live now.

http://www.theboatweek.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/ShuswapMap.png

My 'bug-out' cabin is high up in the Chilcotin Plateau... on the third little   lake on the left, at top.

http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/160230.jpg

[equity_momo]

David , im drawn to the area but ive lived in London long enough and realise i will never love rain. But then the scenery here is hardly comparable.   One thing i realise i crave is a community that contains a concentration of people who "get it".  NY , London , Paris , all great cities but the sheer size of population dilute any real cognition of where we are and where we are going. Chasing the $£E is the be all and end all in these places and the rules are so far skewed and standard of living so low , its become a self defeating purpose.

[DavidPierre]

Thousands of 1970's ex-pat ameriKlans who "get it", living, settled, intermarried with locals, still doing a 'back to the earth' life style.

Drove out here from Detroit in 1970... never went back.  When I first saw the place I thought I died and went to heaven. I just set a course and went, found out where I was going when I got there.

"Go, take your sister then, by the hand,
lead her away from this foreign land,
Far away, where we might laugh again,
We are leaving - you don't need us."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O69L2mO9y-4

[equity_momo]

Great inspiration.

[velobabe]

DP,  i have been to VC a lot and really liked it. went inland. i mostly traveled by sea. all out of seattle and around, it was really fun. beautiful. i went on a kayak trip with a then boyfriend. we launched out of seattle in a broke down truck traveller, with the mother. but we went up to Tofino Canada, victoria island you know. any way, these crazy fucks were surfing in yaks in the pacific freezing ass ocean. this was back in the 90's when i was into yaking.

Tofino Canada

[DavidPierre]

Vancouver Island !!!

http://www.vancouverislandmotels.ca/images/vancouver_island_map.gif

Victoria Island is in the high Arctic

Vargas Island ...see above post... is above Tofino, about an hours paddle.

Next time there go to the Hotsprings Cove.

In early 1980's I ran a "Hoods in the Woods" an outdoor wilderness program and took 'badass juvies' out of detention centres on 10 day canoe trips from Tofino to the hotsprings and back.  It was truly a wonder none of them ever died... although there were a few I wish I had drowned.

http://www.oceanoutfitters.bc.ca/images/hotpool.jpg

[velobabe]

yeah B A B Y , you have a beautiful mind full of wonderful memories. worth the floating body in the sea, S A L T s. meet you on the other side, i am sure†

[UP4Liberty]

Jeez - that is one beautiful panorama...thanks for sharing the view - cheers!

[hedgeless_horseman]

This song says it well enough:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GMk208Op1Jc

[Argos]

Phoenix, warm and sunny.  Cheap housing, no earthquakes, but we do have a nuke plant. No one is perfect!

[Shameful]

I grew up in PHX and have to disagree. High fuel/energy costs will rip that town apart. Got to think nerves will fray in the furnace like summers, as prices preclude people from cranking their ACs into the low 70s. PHX simply does not work without cheap fuel/energy.

[CIABS]

nothing personal, but phoenix is a gigantic death-trap, as are several other southwestern u.s. cities.

[Shameful]

Totally agree.  Most of my family is there and they are looking to relocate over the next year or so.  I like Phoenix well enough, but in a time of crisis it will be a very rough place.  Can only hope a crisis would be in the winter vs summer.  I can hardly fathom the demeanor of the place if you mix economic collapse and murderous summer heat into a potent crazy cocktail.

[gmrpeabody]

+100......... in the shade.

[Snidley Whipsnae]

One word... Water

[TruthInSunshine]

Phoenix, where even if your house is very energy efficient, you need to leave the AC on when leaving town, lest your bars of soap and some other formerly solid objects in the house liquify, and where everything that isn't bolted down (and much that is) is being ripped off, out and about, for scrap value.

[equity_momo]

Nuke plants dont worry me Argo but water does. I want to move somewhere for the next 20 + years. And i think our fuel concerns will give way to water concerns during that period. Apart from that and the possible immigration tensions , its a great place for the here and now (as long as you arent in 35% negative equity)

The one thing i have going for me is just enough cash to not have a mortgage in an average neighborhood and the willingness to work hard without prejudice. Id never have felt like this 3 years ago - i was a different person : egotistical and materialistc - but now , i dont see much future in paper pushing in a city and i found you cant buy happiness. really...   i foresee many following my lead but most will be too late. 

[duncecap rack]

Some analyst on here the other day was talking about how he moved to a town in idaho and was very happy with it. It was a university town so there was a vibrant intelectual scene. Also everybody had gardens and the outdoor life was important to the citizensI don't remember who it was, he was good,but this tidbit stands isolated from the rest in my mind. Anybody else remeber this for the name of the town?

[pasttense]

Moscow, Idaho

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow,_Idaho

[Snidley Whipsnae]

I believe it was Boise Idaho... He wanted to be in a college town so his kids could have exposure to bright people but get away from NY...

[disabledvet]

Hollywood.  Period.  Then you can be whatever you want right in front of everybody.  Even if you're a jerk.  In fact..."especially if you're a jerk."

[DosZap]

Hollywood??

Shit he's way better off in the UK.

[1223pm]

I moved from long island NY to Boise Idaho. Currently renting a small apartment, looking to buy a small house near BSU so kids can go to university without using car. Quality of life is wonderful. Nice two bed room apartment with swimming pool to enjoy is only $545 a month.

http://welcometoboise.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=arts.main

Recently Peter Anastos moved to Boise Idaho.

http://www.boiseweekly.com/boise/a-whole-new-world/Content?oid=935550

New Ballet Idaho artistic director Peter Anastos brings the world to Boise

Word of Anastos' talent spread, and he became a highly sought-after choreographer, working with ballet companies all across the United States—Boston, Fort Worth, Washington, D.C., Miami and New York to name a very few—and in countries across the world, including China, Argentina, Latvia, Belgium, France and Turkey. And though he traveled extensively, he said the one great thing about New York is that a person doesn't really need to leave; everything comes to New York.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnHr5jfgUDU

[JohnG]

Moscow, Idaho.  Nice college town.

Idaho also has no nuclear reactors either, fwiw.

[DosZap]

Heard a lot of the states named that were doing very well are now in bad shape, almost all you named in the NWwest.

Food stamps, and no work.

[hound dog vigilante]

SE Washington has some lovely nuke 'disposal' sites... radiation won't stop at the state line.

If any nuke site west of the rockies goes chernofuku, the entire US is screwed. 

[My Days Are Get...]

EM,

do you have a skill, which can be practiced remotely, like software repair, maintenance or creation?

Do you have a trade - plumber, electrician.

If you have one or both, then you can move anywhere.  If you have neither, then you better be well capitalized and capable of sustaining your lifestyle without any income.

If I were you, I would move to where the climate and the local people most agreeable with you.  I am from the Northeast.  If you want a nice city, try Rochester, NY.  If you want a college town, then consider Clinton, NY, the home of Hamilton College.  If you want rural ( and have no marketable skills), then look for a hamlet in Central NY or the Adirondaks, where a State or Federal prision is located.  There, you can earn minimum wage and be alone for 16 hours a day.

Good Luck.