Guest Post: I've Got a Funny Feeling About the Stock Market

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Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:41 | 1092959 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

You can forget about your personal credit in the near future.

It'll be worthless.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:47 | 1092971 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Junked me without a rebuttal.

Pity the fool who lives on credit, we're headed to a cash economy as the "long emergency" takes more form.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:21 | 1093098 the mad hatter
the mad hatter's picture

technical analysis? who needs technical analysis?

BTFD while the printing presses are running full speed. the day that bernanke raises interest rates and/or stops POMO will be the day that i sell.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:37 | 1093134 Doña K
Doña K's picture

It may either be too late, or you may think that it is just a dip and buy more. They are smarter than us. Why? they have the info and we don't timing is everything. Look out.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 00:11 | 1093704 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Here is some information about the "Liquidity Hoarding" from the Fed.

 

http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr488.pdf

 

Seems that Fed is Suprised that the banksters are keeping the money.

What the hell were they thinking???

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 00:14 | 1093715 huntergvl
huntergvl's picture

NOT smarter than us....just criminals. They telegraph their moves though. For instance, if the market jumps on April 1st, we're still good. First of the month has been green for awhile, although we had a miss either this month or last. That might be a new trend beginning.

Every time a FEDHED, gives a speech somewhere, they are putting out clues to what they will say (what they will do is obvious QE3 is a lock, but they don't have to necessarily call it QE3. They have generated such a large balance sheet, that they can effectively roll over the maturing treasuries without increasing their balance sheet, for some time). But, they will have to telegraph their intentions in advance of the April FOMC announcements, or risk some dynamism in the markets which upsets them (unless it's straight up).

I'm sure everyone saw the G7 bailout and Japan printing money like an addict going through johns and crank. Japan's deficit far exceeds the U.S., but still 'THEY PRINT,' will the full consent and backing of all the G7.

Currently, there is absolutely NO downside to running up massive deficits by printing money and increasing the debt ceiling to infinity. The consequences are issues for tomorrow and especially for another legislature and another administration. They might let the market correct down 10-15% to get all the retail investor's attention just so they can easily justify QE3 and this time go for the gusto.....$600 Billion (really $900 billion minimum) is chump change. If I was a scummy Central Bankster, I'd let the market dip hard and fast and then come to the rescue with a $3 Trillion QE.

So, I am risk on, risk off, risk on, risk off, like the Karate Kid, and more skittish than a virgin on prom night, but I am still trading and after all this time (since '07), I remember that which matters most.....

"We are STILL HERE" LOLOL

We should call the 2011-2020 decade, the Matrix Decade. Reality is on Hiatus for sure.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 00:16 | 1093723 huntergvl
huntergvl's picture

Today:

Long SLW AXU BRD USO AEM

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 03:34 | 1094145 Djirk
Djirk's picture

yummmm oreos

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 07:20 | 1094339 Ben Trinanke
Ben Trinanke's picture

since i am new in here  i might ask a question that seems pretty dump for you, but what do you actually mean by BTFD???

thanks

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 07:46 | 1094392 Waterfallsparkles
Waterfallsparkles's picture

I think it means Buy The Frigging Dip.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 08:44 | 1094567 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/buy-dip

and we need to infect the newbie with other memes ;-)  He's required to view all of the silver bearz, starting here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-sack-blows-whistle-jp-morgue-si...

- Ned

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 10:49 | 1095125 Ben Trinanke
Ben Trinanke's picture

got it. thanks a lot...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:54 | 1092993 goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Credit is limitless in Ben Bernochio's world.  Just print more money and all is well.  When he gets in front of Ron Paul and says that QE is designed to temporarily buy and hold assets adding them to the Fed's balance sheet I wanna throw up in my mouth!  Bernochio's nose grows atleast a quarter inch a day.  In essence, the Fed, an American entity, is buying what debt noone else will and adding it to the balance sheet as a so-called asset, huh?  An asset, U.S. debt?  I guess I can call my credit card company and tell them I'm not going to pay this months statement because its really an asset which if they're interested I will sell it back to them to be paid back ten years from now at 2.1% interest.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:02 | 1093022 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

You don't even need to call them.

Your signature is the asset. Your energy has been robbed from and reissued to you your entire consumeristic life purely for the profit of the Chapter 11 bankrupted united states (since 1933) and its evil IMF overlords. Yikes!

Speaker-Rep. James Traficant, Jr. (Ohio) addressing the House in 1993:

 "Mr. Speaker, we are here now in chapter 11. Members of Congress are
official trustees presiding over the greatest reorganization of any Bankrupt
entity in world history; the U.S. Government.

 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 01:31 | 1093960 SoCalBusted
SoCalBusted's picture

I miss Jim, "Beam me up Scotty".  He got out of prison a few years ago.  He seemed a bit crazy 20-30 years ago.  Not so much now.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 01:38 | 1093973 Moon Pie
Moon Pie's picture

I used to watch Traficant on CSPAN.  Wish I had a DVR then.  Dude was off the hook and in some ways, very prescient.  He whacked the IRS beehive and got done over that.  I will always believe that.  The Feds could hogtie just about any congressman/woman if they wanted to.  They went after "Beam me up.." Jimmy cause they could and cause he laid into the system every time he could.  He is no saint, but none of them are.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 08:20 | 1094488 Watauga
Watauga's picture

Anyone seen SHUTTER ISLAND?  DiCaprio's character is lost in either his mind or hell on Earth.  Never can tell.  The key to making him think he has lost his mind, or to making him appear to have lost his mind if he ever escapes the island and talks, is to ensure he has no credibility because of what appears to be his insanity.  Perhaps, however, he is completely sane?  That is what they did to Traficant.  Made him look like he was borderline insane.  Then, it was easy to whisk him off to jail on trumped up charges.  Sure, he helped the process along, but they enabled his failures to ensure no one cared about him being removed from office.  It was masterful.  Or, he really was off his rocker and had no business being in Congress, EVEN IF HE WAS RIGHT most of the time about what was going on in government!

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 23:19 | 1093499 chumbawamba
chumbawamba's picture

Why don't you throw up on the television set, or perhaps an effigy of Berjackass instead?  I imagine that would be less unpleasant than throwing up in your own mouth.  Maybe you canmake a life-sized effigy of Berjackhole and then throw up in its mouth.  That would be rather satisfying, I imagine.

I am Chumbawamba.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:03 | 1093023 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

/

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:44 | 1093157 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

Personal credit? What does that mean? That we wont be able to borrow anymore? Maybe so, but why do you think not?

 Personally I think now is the time to borrow as much as possible with a fixed interest rate long term. With a huge wave of inflation coming, the payments made in a few years will amount to pennies on the dollar.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 07:18 | 1094331 SunSword
SunSword's picture

Soon...very soon...not quite yet. But soon it will be time to dump any cars you have and buy brand new top of the line autos on credit. Timing will be 80% of this maneuver.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 01:53 | 1094012 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 agree with the premise of the article; the top is in from Feb.22; we are now in a bear market.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:47 | 1092978 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

A strong dollar allows commodity prices to drop.

Watch the selling of Gold, Silver and Oil for Food.

 7 reasons food shortages will become a global crisis...

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/03/7-reasons-food-shortages-will-become.html

OT Wrong Side Up....OT Comedy...2 min vid...

http://goodthoughtsgoodwordsgooddeeds.blogspot.com/2011/03/wrong-side-upfilm-short.html

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:03 | 1093015 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Right on Duke.

Do you know that farmers can order seed that specifies how much sunlight the grow cycle has.

Example; "I want maximum yield in 90 day of sunshine", or "I want maximum yield in 95 day of sunshine".

Fucking-A. How to engineer a global food crisis? Kill off the Heirloom, let the rise of GMO take over the world. Walmart Seeds bitchez.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:43 | 1093155 rocker
rocker's picture

Wow, which do I respond to. People will sell their gold, silver, and oil for food.  Huh, you mean the people who had no investments and are selling family heirlooms. Wow. Or do you mean the CB's who are going to short everything and take all that money the Bernanke put in the markets just as the individual investor wets his feet?

And on the seed thing. Nothing surprises me anymore. Nothing. Monsanto has figured out how to sell seeds that will not produce fertile seeds so you have to buy them again next year.  And to top it off.  Our local Walmart is selling what they call "Seeding Potatoes".  I have never seen any of these at a Walmart ever. Are they O.K. to eat as is?  Just what the hell is the difference between a seeding potato and the regular ones you buy.  I always cut a few up every spring and stuck them in the ground.  

As I've said before. Sometimes I need the lady to pinch me to make sure all this shit is real. Either way. If Gold, Silver, and PM's do dip with the market. I do think the market is in for a correction. On PMs, Buy the Fukn' Dip.  Don't sell yet. This is far from over.  QE3 is only a rumor, then we have 4 and 5.  

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 23:21 | 1093512 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

On PMs, just put up a chart that backs your thesis.  They may be tired in the medium-term, but aren't close to over.

http://thelastcanary.blogspot.com/

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 08:23 | 1094502 Watauga
Watauga's picture

Gold to $1225--buy.

Silver to $23--buy.

Long term bull in PMs.  Gold to $5000+ and silver to $100+.

As for food crisis, MENA, Japan meltdown, U.S. entering third war (or expanding the world war), risks to oil, nuclear, and coal going forward. . .  and we have a charlatan and pretender in charge.  What a country.

Time to re-read, by the way, THE CAMP OF THE SAINTS. 

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 01:30 | 1093955 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

I hate getting Smacked Judy. I'm rebuilding this country. P.S. who was it Eisenhower sent in  to rebuild Japan> JUDY!!!????????????

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:48 | 1092980 gold mans sack
Thu, 03/24/2011 - 01:14 | 1093911 dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

nice, which reminded me of this

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9cWkUhZ8n4&feature=related

 

so much bullshit on this planet right now

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:48 | 1092981 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

When something is win-win beyond all rational comprehension...it violently turns to lose-lose.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:41 | 1093154 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Wise words 10k, very well said.

ORI

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 01:49 | 1093996 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Time for the cheap deep OTM puts, IMO, and yes, I'm calling out Bernanke for being incompetent and less than the magician (much more like the charlatan) some claim he is, as I did in 2007, where I made enough money to expand my horizons.

And yes, I'm also doing what I'm saying.

Bernanke's fucked, he was going to be fucked anyways *after fucking America and the world*, but Japan was the swan that shat on him, and accelerated his demise.

Look for NerObama to throw Bernanke out to the wolves soon, in a vicious display as to how ugly politics can really get. And the excuse NerObama will use is -

 

-- Bernanke stated he would not support bailing out states, counties and cities.

Every once in a while, I get a good thesis going, and sometimes, they even pan out.

 

p.s. - You technical/pattern guys and chartists - give me an overlay of 2007/2008 before the crash happened and the last 2 or 3 months. Thanks.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 23:18 | 1093491 spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

When something is win-win beyond all rational comprehension...it violently turns to lose-lose.

 

Good point 10kby2k. Music to the ears of a certain semi-retired speculator hell bent on change. 

http://www.mrc.org/bmi/commentary/2011/Unreported_Soros_Event_Aims_to_Re...

 

h/t   www.drudgereport.com

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:52 | 1092986 Kryten451
Kryten451's picture

error

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:50 | 1092988 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Long the dollar?!?!? The hell you say. It sounds just crazy enough to work, but I'd feel much better shorting the markets. Good thread

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:51 | 1092989 Fred Hayek
Fred Hayek's picture

Interesting stuff, as always, Mr. Smith.  Thank you.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:54 | 1092994 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

The bold trade: Sell your commodities to trend followers and go short equites and then buy your commodities back at a deep discount.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:18 | 1093091 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Dangerous waters those. Timing is everything and something tells me we cannot see the clock.

ORI

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:24 | 1093106 oygevalt
oygevalt's picture

So now you're not hawking your website, but are speaking in Yoda-isms?  Thanks for mixing it up.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:52 | 1093179 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Dumb shit you are.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 22:12 | 1093221 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

The eye that looks ahead to the safe course is closed forever.

 

Paul Muad'Dib

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 02:39 | 1094090 thegr8whorebabylon
thegr8whorebabylon's picture

Pass the spice please, Porkchop.

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 00:36 | 1093783 10kby2k
10kby2k's picture

Very dangerous. That is what i would do with other peoples money.....more cautious and measured with my own.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:39 | 1093145 Jason T
Jason T's picture

I did it last week.. bought SH at about 42.20, UUP 22.10 and sold a good chunk of SLV and CEF.  Too much going on for the risk trade and that $52 trillion in US$ Debt makes that dollar one hell of a shorted currency.  No flight to safety, flight to pay off debt and deleverage.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 21:46 | 1093164 thebark
thebark's picture

bold I dare say....and probably true...but when I ask? does silver go to $200 first? if the dollar collapses BEFORE the market....then gold and silver will go parabolic...

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 23:16 | 1093487 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

And here is something that will only help silver increase. India to increase silver bullion for investment purposes 25% in 2011.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=329

Thu, 03/24/2011 - 08:26 | 1094513 Watauga
Watauga's picture

Not so bold, as it is a sure thing--on a long enough timeline.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:53 | 1092996 donde1
donde1's picture

.

Wed, 03/23/2011 - 20:53 | 1092998 donde1
donde1's picture

So do I sell all of my silver to buy back in after it drops??? 

rookie

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