• Sprott Money
    05/06/2016 - 06:03
    The US, in its own decline, is showing this same self-destructive tendency. The worse things get, the greater the inclination of the citizenry to say, “Carry on, everything’s fine.”

Guest Post: Just Where Is The Equity In All Of This?

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Fri, 12/31/2010 - 16:54 | 840327 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Instant bookmark and I haven't even finished reading. I have been looking for these stats for quite some time. Excellent!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:00 | 840342 blindman
blindman's picture

knowingly saturated in normalcy bias well beyond 1984

right is wrong and death is freedom so look to your health

care provider and product, sustenance, regulator to accelerate

demise.  money is debt.  oh well

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:16 | 840364 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Because if equity prices do not "behave" ahead, private pension sponsors may be quick to pull the plug on volatile equities...

all pension fund managers are stupid and corrupt. they care only about appearances and year end statements/bonuses/kickbacks.

Put up the cash to fully fund the plans - not feasible.  Use existing pension assets and muni general fund assets to make payments ahead - not likely as per the general funds kicking in so early in the pension payout game.  Fund payouts solely out of plan assets, risking deeper under funding ahead - bingo, near term choice of fiscal expediency...

An excellent point but... Only the smart honest ones (if any) will do this but as I wrote above: all pension fund managers are stupid and corrupt. they care only about appearances and year end statements/bonuses/kickbacks. That goes for state/muni politicos as well.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:12 | 840375 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

go ask steve "the rat" rattner about how virtuous pension fund managers are. He'll be back bribing your pension fund manager within five years:

 

http://www.startribune.com/business/112692224.html?elr=KArks:DCiU1OiP:Di...

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:29 | 840386 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Go ask Jefferson county alabama how much local politicians care about their contituents. Go ask JPM and the squid how much bribery pays off over the long haul.

 

CALPERS et al will DOUBLE DOWN:

 

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/30/news/companies/calpers_pension_risks.for...

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:20 | 840395 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Demon-graphics. What a story.

Incidentally, and some ZHers might find this interesting, is that white/western women's hips are narrowing at an alarming rate. Any demongrapher needs to pay attention to things such as these. Also, men are finding it increasingly difficult to get it up.

Thus, the success of Viagra and other such derivatives.

Bottom line, and it's a narrower and narrower bottom, declining birthrates.

Future looks grimmish, old and a little withered. Those Florida retiree, wrinkled calendars come to mind.

Not good.

Porn....tch tch.

Pornography killed the baby boom. Believe it.

The view from 30,000 feet.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2010/06/17/death-of-shame-death-of-nobil...

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 19:11 | 840652 puckles
puckles's picture

Incidentally, and some ZHers might find this interesting, is that white/western women's hips are narrowing at an alarming rate. Any demongrapher needs to pay attention to things such as these. Also, men are finding it increasingly difficult to get it up.

ORI, citations for this?  Viagra is mainly targeted at the boomer generation (although according to a current Daily Mail story, the Hef, who is past 80 but still partying, requires it as well)..These are people who are essentially done with reproduction.  As for the narrowing of Western pelvises, I am in great doubt; obesity aside, increased nutrition in the West over the past 100 years (and now many parts of Asia, including Japan, in particular) has led to larger bones, taller people, and generally larger people overall.  If you are using cesarean statistics, that is relatively meaningless, especially in the US, where ambulance-chasing lawyers have rendered those docs still practicing as obstetricians quite cowardly in terms of encouraging natural childbirth.  One must also recognize that prior to the development of antibiotics, sterile surgical environments, protocols for personal cleanliness on the part of the operating team, and so on, cesareans were only done if the life of the mother was already essentially forgone.  Such was the case with Caesar's own mother.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 00:31 | 841110 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Puckles, will post, if this thread is relevant, when I dig them out.

It was a book reference, much anecdotal observation, study of human sexuality etc..

I know about cesarean stats and the reasons thereof (disgusting). Happening here in India too. Did not know the cesarean came from Caesar! Does it?

This is a deep topic and I say that with tongue firmly outside cheek.

Larger bone structure does not necessarily mean wider hips by the way.

Best to you this new year.

ORI

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:19 | 841194 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

yes cesarean/caesarean comes from caesar, sort of (maybe also caedo, latin for cut).  the lex regia of rome, later the lex caesareus, required the child of a mother dead or dying (also tenth month) in childbirth be cut from the womb.  some children survived (not mothers).  pliny the elder writes that julius caesar (not et tu brute, but a distant ancestor) was cut (caedo) from the womb.  the famous julius's mom had several children after him. many other languages contain this "emperor" reference.  thank you wikipedia

in the spirit of clarification, this excellent post's description of the 1973 to 1982 u.s. equity market as going nowhere is a bit misleading.  as the 1929 to 1932 price decline was not as bad as the (nominal) chart indicates because of deflation, so too the later chart, when inflation adjusted, is much, much worse, perhaps 70% decline vs. the earlier 80+%.  measure from the 1965 high and you're splitting hairs arguing about appropriate price change measures.  

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 09:05 | 841368 h3m1ngw4y
h3m1ngw4y's picture

sorry to say but wrong. now is the beginning of the next baby boomer generation :-)

read howe strauss the fourth turning. or at least google it

 

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 12:02 | 841485 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Hemmingway, nice handle (the way you wrote it, very clever). Very familiar with Fourth Turning via Jim Quinn.

I buy the book's basic hypothesis, but the next generation will rise through the ashes of a pretty hard take down of the current system.

Of everything. Justice has been corrupted, Law has been corrupted, Politics is deeply corrupted, always has been, but if the other two pillars were solid, they were in check, inter-relationships have been corrupted, sex has been deeply corrupted, "work" has deeply corrupted, everyone who works that is, children have been corrupted, the aged have been corrupted, Education has been corrupted, the plan-et has been corrupted,Innocence is, in this paradigm anyway, terminally corrupted...

What will enable this womb, corrupted to the core, and I'm using the word corrupted in the widest sense.... to produce magic? The next generation? 

Only if we rediscover alchemy, in case, current paradigm meets it's maker anyways.

So, in my view, we've short-circuited ourselves.

How much time? Now that is the six and a half billion dollear question.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:29 | 840424 pitz
pitz's picture

Cheap equity and cheap sources of borrowing for those who want to.  Best returns to be made are not in equities alone, or just borrowing alone, but rather, running an arbitrage play between the two asset classes.  Essentially transforming volatile high-returning assets into steady, but very low payouts for seniors.

 

 

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:31 | 840430 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Absolutely a huge year for being 100% fully invested in common stocks.

Glad I ignored the news flow and just watched the tape and just followed the PigMen.

This year will go down as one where many of the so-called market "experts" who predicted a crash were outright humiliated.

Macro theme traders with a bearish bias were utterly destroyed.

I really don't care what happens in 2011, because I plan on trading both directions, which ever way the tape tells me to go.

Happy New Years to everyone.

2010 will go down as one of the best years ever.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 17:35 | 840442 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

it was a great year for the execs at fnma and fmcc as well. Congrats to you and them!

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:25 | 840566 spinone
spinone's picture

You're just chasing the bids on a watermelon thrown off the top floor.  Gonna be quick enough to get out before it hits the pavement?

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 00:17 | 841093 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

I thought you had transitioned to being a "distressed analyst"?  Again, not sure how T/A will help you in that arena.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 17:52 | 841809 Bear
Bear's picture

Ugh ... 2010 should have been a hibernation year for me ... next year, I'm ready for vengeance

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 18:14 | 840529 mcarthur
mcarthur's picture

The analysis seems to ignore the need to get on top of rampant inflation post Vietnam.  You simply cannot ignore a fed tightening with a fed loosening but the above analysis seems to do so.  I think Rosenberg's star is as good as dead in 2011 since the fed will keep priming the wealth creation pump  until we get 5% inflation.  S an P up what? 15% for 2010, commodities up big time, even treasuries up over 5% according to Barclays.  Looks like the only 2010 losers were the shorts.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:08 | 841208 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

depends when you short and when you cover.  decent equity short late april to late june; tsy short late august to ?.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 20:46 | 840817 ShortGamma
ShortGamma's picture

While there is some validity to the demographics-based investment outlook, you can't ignore that circumstances are not the same as the 1970s.  Different economic environment, politcal environment, regulatory environment, etc.  Also, if you were a young person in the 1970s, wouldn't it have been a great time to be gradually accumulating equities?  For most non-traders, the problem with waiting until things look "better" is that you may have left a lot of gains on the table by the time you decide it is better. 

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:25 | 840865 gwar5
gwar5's picture

"It is absurd for the US to think they can rebuild their economy with 12 million fruit pickers" --Lee Kuan Yew, former PM of Singapore, architect of their economic miracle. 2010.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:13 | 841213 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

what were his constituents one or two generations ago?  slaves invented jazz, blues and rock and roll.  certainly got some play there.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:36 | 840872 banksterhater
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The WallSt Banksters know this, and are working overtime to get there hands on MANDATED Soc Security or IRAs. Blast them out of the water every time, otherwise they'll know we're passive. The RepubliCons including Obama planned the 2% payroll cut as the camel's nose under the tent. It's NOT paid back from general funds mechanisms, it is intentional. Don't kid yourself. It's an excuse to "save the system" by weakening it.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:16 | 841215 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

imo you are correct, particularly regarding obama's camel's nose

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:36 | 840873 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

The WallSt Banksters know this, and are working overtime to get there hands on MANDATED Soc Security or IRAs. Blast them out of the water every time, otherwise they'll know we're passive. The RepubliCons including Obama planned the 2% payroll cut as the camel's nose under the tent. It's NOT paid back from general funds mechanisms, it is intentional. Don't kid yourself. It's an excuse to "save the system" by weakening it.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:41 | 840874 GetReal
GetReal's picture

We are observing what can only be described as a Fed-induced speculative blowoff. While this has been avidly encouraged by the Fed, it is important to recognize that there is no actual economic mechanism at play here other than words. Investors are chasing stocks because Ben Bernanke told them to, and despite the fact that we have seen two plunges of more than 50% each over the past decade, investors are at least temporarily willing to believe that the Fed will "backstop" their risk-taking by preventing the market from falling. As for any "transmission mechanism" attributable to QE2 itself, Treasury yields and mortgage rates have increased sharply since the Fed first announced QE2, and the additional reserves created by Fed purchases have simply added to the already massive and idle pool held by banks. Unless one twists logic into a pretzel so that up is down, one can identify nothing of substance in the Fed's policy that is supporting the markets. Stocks are being buoyed solely by a combination of words, sentiment and superstition. As Stevie Wonder put it, "When you believe in things that you don't understand, then you suffer."

From a longer-term perspective, the simple fact is that Fed-induced bubbles do not change the long-term mathematics of investment returns, which are based on deliverable cash flows. Over the short-term, Fed actions can undoubtedly postpone market declines. But as we've repeatedly observed, the Fed can do so only by making those losses far worse when they arrive.

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 23:35 | 841043 banksterhater
banksterhater's picture

You copied this from Hussman's column, don't you think you should give him credit?

I DO.

 

http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc101227.htm

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:51 | 840887 No More Bubbles
No More Bubbles's picture

The world is not about to come to an end -

 

 

ROFLMAO!

 

 

Fri, 12/31/2010 - 21:52 | 840890 GetReal
GetReal's picture

As of last week, the Market Climate for stocks continued to be characterized by an overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields conformation that has historically been very hostile to stocks. That said, this Climate is also characterized by what I've frequently called "unpleasant skew" - if you think of day-to-day market returns as being drawn from a sort of "bell curve," the highest probability area of the bell is actually a small positive gain, but there is also a shortened right tail (a lower-than-normal likelihood of large gains) and a fat left tail (a much higher-than-normal likelihood of steep losses). So the average outcome is negative, but the most frequent "draw" is actually a small gain.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 02:22 | 841217 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

again verbatim hussman.  at least an excellent source.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 10:04 | 841413 GetReal
GetReal's picture

Just started reading him. Do you think he is mostly right in his analyses? Where are you in disagreement?

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 10:34 | 841428 UninterestedObserver
UninterestedObserver's picture

He is telling you to quote your source - did you get through college by plagiarizing?

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 11:00 | 841443 GetReal
GetReal's picture

I know that. I'm not working on a diploma on this forum. Got your point though. If quoting sources are always required here, I will comply. However, my questions are still valid.

Happy New Year...

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 13:30 | 841557 Blano
Blano's picture

At a minimum, it's called common courtesy.  Happy New Year to you as well.

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 16:27 | 841737 GetReal
GetReal's picture

Mea culpa. I consider myself publicly spanked. Thanks for your well wishes!

Sat, 01/01/2011 - 13:07 | 841535 HungrySeagull
HungrySeagull's picture

As far as we are concerned, Employers of all kinds have failed to put the dollars into the Plans as they ought to have been doing these last 30 years. Now it comes around to bite em in the ass. Specially the Locals.

 

Drop the Pensions and save the money bailout towards Social Security.

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