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Guest Post: Made In Japan

Tyler Durden's picture




 

By Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Made in Japan

I still remember when there was a certain cachet to Japanese made products.  They were technologically advanced and better built than anything else available.  Sonyo, Toshiba, Toyota, Honda, Kawasaki, Yamaha, etc. were all dominating brands.  You could find products in Electric City in Tokyo that were generations ahead of what you could purchase in New York City.  That gap has narrowed and in many cases reversed over time, but now we might be hitting a stage where 'Made in Japan' is a big negative.

So far, most analysis about the reconstruction of Japan is based on the the experience from prior earthquakes.  I'm not sure how relevant prior earthquakes were to begin with, but Japan has now moved from a tragic earthquake event, to a nuclear event.  The nuclear problem continues to grow, and it is very different from the devastation of the earthquake or tsunami.

As more information comes out indicating much higher levels of radiation than previously thought and no real evidence of the situation getting under control, its time to examine the long term effects of this on any recovery.  The first, and most obvious difference, is you do NOT rebuild in areas that have been exposed to high levels of radiation.  This complicates the rebuilding process immensely as not only does property plant and equipment need to be replaced, you need to find new locations for them.  This is much harder logistically to do than the already difficult task of rebuilding.  Are we at this stage yet?  No, but the likelihood that there will be a large area of land where people do not want to live or work is increasing.  Using prior earthquakes as a guide is far less useful once land that was useful is no longer available.

The second problem is that goods 'Made in Japan' may become viewed as tainted.  So far, people are talking about when the supply chain will be fixed.  Its a function of rebuilding and solving the rolling blackout issue.  That may be the case, but as the radiation problem continues unabated, will people want to purchase products made in Japan?  Will there be a concern, valid or not, about radiation from products produced in Japan?  Given the near panic the U.S. media goes into at any sign of a salmonella or other tainted food outbreak (remember when you couldn't get jalapeno peppers at Chipotle grill) its not hard to imagine the media frenzy over irradiated products from Japan.  I think we already over react to fears of health risks.  I'm not sure why we do, but time after time we act irrationally once fears of health risks are brought up.  We tend to overstate the risk, overstate the potential for it to spread, and understate our medical ability to deal with it.  Tainted food, bird flu, anthrax....all of these hit, create a wave of almost hysteria, and then fade into the background.  Most recently, with the oil spill, shrimp sales nose dived, but that was relatively easy to manage.  Restaurants put up - No Gulf Shrimp signs, and if it didn't look black from oil, people accepted that it was okay.  Radiation is different since it can be in anything, and ironically, many of the products that have Japanese components emit some radiation to begin with (cell phones as a prime example).  Rational people will argue that any radiation detected is normal.  Fear-mongers will claim its related to Japan.  Again, we live in a country where many people worry about what type of plastic bottles are used as they are concerned about long term leaching of the plastic into the water its holding.  Its not much of a stretch to imagine people getting worried about products that potentially have extra radiation having being made in Japan.  I can see the Oprah show already.  Its easy to see why some companies, and even politicians would be happy to jump on the bandwagon, to push a made in America agenda.  Its not hard to see a politician lobbying for stricter controls so that factories in their district can gain market share.  On the surface this would be very bad for Japan, but good for America.  On the other hand, almost everyone agrees protectionism is bad, and we have generally managed to avoid it during this financial crisis, but an event like this could create the conditions for growing protectionism.

None of this has happened, and its still a low probability event, but its not a zero probability anymore.  The chain of events is fairly straightforward and as conditions at the reactor deteriorate from already high levels, the chance that land usage will be affected long term is very real.  Any analysis based simply on prior earthquakes then misses the point.  We need to see more detailed analysis of what happens to the recovery options in Japan under nuclear scenarios.  The most likely is some loss of land use, and a change in the energy mix the country uses (this was not affected by prior earthquakes, but will be affected this time).  Its wrong to compare Fukushima to Chernobyl, but its also wrong to compare this to Kyoto.

The potential that 'Made in Japan' carries a negative stigma affecting long term recovery there is a bit farfetched, but not at all impossible.  Its easy to scare people, and radiation has all the qualities that make it a prime candidate - you cannot see it, its extremely harmful, and since its already there, its hard to determine the source.  Its very easy to see how any evidence of radiation in products coming from Japan can quickly grow to an irrational but devastating movement to avoid 'Made in Japan' and if that occurs, all bets on the recovery there are off.

I was long Japan post quake as the market seemed to have over reacted to the earthquake.  The bounce, though, has been large and profitable, so I'm out, and as the situation in Fukushima continues to deteriorate, the market looks expensive as its not pricing in the potential consequences of this being a nuclear event rather than an earthquake event. 

 

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Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:11 | 1101205 MaxVernon
MaxVernon's picture

I can tell you "fer sher" I'm not buying any Japanese bottled water any time soon!

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:20 | 1101231 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

Or glow sticks.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:28 | 1101253 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

how do you feel about the new nuclear powered toyota prius?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:51 | 1101328 impending doom
impending doom's picture

What a fucking tool: "I'm not sure how relevant prior earthquakes were to begin with"

Allow me to retort: The one thing we learn from history is that noone learns anything from history"

~Hegel

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:14 | 1101389 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

Agreed.

We tend to overstate the risk, overstate the potential for it to spread, and understate our medical ability to deal with it.  Tainted food, bird flu, anthrax....all of these hit, create a wave of almost hysteria, and then fade into the background.  Most recently, with the oil spill, shrimp sales nose dived, but that was relatively easy to manage.  Restaurants put up - No Gulf Shrimp signs, and if it didn't look black from oil, people accepted that it was okay.

Ask the World Health Organization about their Level 6 pandemic and the billions looted by big pharma - ain't no "we" about it. They created the hysteria.

If the shrimp doesn't look black it's okay? What kind of moron thinks like that? It's either from the GoM or it's not. If they say it's from Indonesia I'm okay with it. I'll take some risk every once in a while.

Only valid point I saw was that land around the reactors won't be reclaimed in our lifetimes. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:08 | 1101547 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Excellent extension there WW. I am a highly-compensated slave of the big-pharmas and you are spot on. Keep digging and you will find blacker stuff than oil...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:14 | 1101406 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

Looks like you are too dumb to see that line in "quotes" is actually agreeing with your statement. 

I know the brain works in mysterious ways, and emotional responses like yours, tend to make people react like irrational old ladies.  Unless, of course, you are an irrational old lady, then nevermind. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:05 | 1101540 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Well, at least you admit that you are crazy, Mr(s) Smith

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:00 | 1101816 crazyjsmith
crazyjsmith's picture

Yes, I am crazy.  And I did agree with your first comment, that we are constantly proving to each other as human beings of how unbelievably short sided we all are.  Our narrow focus will be our demise. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:09 | 1101960 Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture


The Japanese will sacrifice themselves for the greater good of the homeland and their brethren... I don't believe they will abandon Japan or each other... and anyone who questions this has zero clue of Japanese culture.

The problem will lay in the death of tourism... Tokyo is what, 250km away? The current evacuation zone is 50km? Not much left to go.... and the death of "made in japan" products as they will have the "radioactive" stigma.... but once the problem is "under control" the media will shift back towards the next war, sovereign bankruptcy, or 'terrorist' trying to make the world that much more unstable of a place... 

.... and to all those "healthy food eaters" on the west coast... say good bye to sushi for the next few.... years~

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:28 | 1101442 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

i hear ann coulter is looking for capital for to promote her new "slightly" radioactive Ben Wa Balls to promote women's reproductive health and pleasure.  plus, they can be shoved up men's derrieres with small, concealed ramrods from her already-hot, steel-reinforced bustiers and corsets.

and you were wondering what keeps her smiling?

my all-time fave BTFD for health reasons was when Coke scarfed up Odwalla thru Minute Maid, a few years after the e.coli deaths from the Odwalla Apple Juice contamination.  Coke let em get back on their feet, to profitability, first, of course, then reeled 'em in. 

ka-ching! 

yes, this is nuclear.  worse, or not as bad, as Chernobyl X5?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:38 | 1101468 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

ann coulter - are you

a. jealous,

b. intimidated,

c. obsessed with, or

d. afraid of her.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:55 | 1101511 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

you forgot:

e. disgusted 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:06 | 1101544 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

the answer is:

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:14 | 1101209 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

It's so obvious. Their crisis is the solution to our crisis. Open US immigration policy to the Japanese. Create a reservation in Nevada and recreate Japan stateside.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:29 | 1101254 samsara
samsara's picture

Yes, the country side is SO much like their home. AND Nevada has PLENTY of aquifer water at least for another 5 years,  Lets import them by the millions.

GOOD American Solution.  Shows plenty of forethought.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:38 | 1101283 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Send the women only.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:52 | 1101334 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Why even bother justifying this person with a response?

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 14:22 | 1103281 FeralSerf
FeralSerf's picture

Inasmuch as you responded, who better to answer that question than you?  One can't help but wonder . . .

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:59 | 1101359 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Right, Western Michigan on the other hand could use the people and the influx. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:08 | 1101377 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

Exactly,

Give them Detroit; let them bust the UAW and take over the big three.

The US will once again be producing the best cars in the world at a price that will bankrupt BMW and Mercedes... 

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 22:30 | 1102011 lynnybee
lynnybee's picture

DETROIT / DEARBORN has already been given to the IRAQUIS !   ........ i'm on the other side of the state & the stories i hear about what goes on in the garages of DEARBORN scare the people .   The story is that the Iraq population in Dearborn carry out their native custom of slaughtering & bleeding goats in their garages ! 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:30 | 1101263 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I don't think the Japanese will go into dentention camps again quite so willingly.  Amerikans-yes, Japanese-no.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:55 | 1101341 impending doom
impending doom's picture

I'll take that bet cossack, although I really, really wish that I wasn't so confident about the outcome...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:11 | 1101398 WaterWings
WaterWings's picture

American "will to resist" is at all-time lows.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:36 | 1101280 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

plenty of shadow inventory housing....you wont need a reservation

and....wait for it...we could reinflate the housing bubble

booyah!

send us you huddled masses before they set off the detectors at the airports(again)

ummm...you can keep your poor and downtrodden...we need folks with cash

and, bonus...new meaning to NINJA loans

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:14 | 1101212 NotAllowed
NotAllowed's picture

I'm inclined to agree with the author.  This is a totally different scenario that conventional construction cannot fix.  As the Russians said "at least we knew who we were fighting in WW2, you cannot see the "invisible" enemy"

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:14 | 1101219 drink or die
drink or die's picture

Unfortunately many products use components from Japan, so you can't really believe the "made in ______" label.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:16 | 1101222 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

My Sony TV and my Honda only lasted 20 years. My new Hitachi TV glows brightly.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:18 | 1101225 anarkst
anarkst's picture

I remember when you could buy a Japanese transister radio for a buck and a half.  Ah, the circle of life.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:25 | 1101247 avonaltendorf
avonaltendorf's picture

and "Made in Japan" was synonymous with junk (1950s)

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:51 | 1101324 Cthonic
Cthonic's picture

and worth about as much as one of their five hundred peso notes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_invasion_money

Relative of mine who had been in Tropic Lightning and a member of the occupation forces gave me a stack of these as a kid-- boy I thought I was rich!

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:10 | 1101396 YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Precisely. I was wondering when somebody would go that far (Back to the Future). Even when I was growing up in 80's England, there were LOTS of older people who loathed Japanese imports as junk. Cars especially. It was the same in the US when I visited my cousins there. The usual cretinous epithets we assign to Chinese goods now (Cheap, copied, no imagination, blah blah ad infinitum) were said about Japanese goods of all descriptions.

 

I haven't posted a thing about Japan since 48 hours after the Tsunami, because the events were too close to me personally (not physically), and anything that could be said about it were proven correct in that time frame. Predicting human suffering accurately gave me no comfort, but were pyrrhic victories.

 

I have not the foggiest idea how Japan will pan out in the next 5 years, but I agree with the cautious approach of the author. It does look quite bleak right now, and another quake of similar magnitude near Toyko has more than a 30% chance of occuring soon. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-12792943 

However, I can tell anyone who will listen with confidence though, Japan (With a lot of help from its neighbours, China and S.Korea - ostensibly historical enemies but the first to send teams to help) will clean up its mess and recover its global economic stature. Major wars and two nukes on its cities didn't stop its progress, and I doubt this event will either. I wish them well. 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:43 | 1101482 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

Yep, the old "Jap Crap" that was on sale in the bargain sections.  Transitor radios with wires popping out of the tissue thin plastic, junk toys...

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:20 | 1101228 Ident 7777 economy
Ident 7777 economy's picture

Sonyo? (Sony?)

Sanyo! (for sure) http://sanyo.com/corporate/profile/history/01.html

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:22 | 1101237 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Brands will evolve.

New-fin tuna, for one.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:23 | 1101240 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I'm not sure why we do, but time after time we act irrationally once fears of health risks are brought up.

In aggregate, our fears may be deemed irrational, but individually, our health and life are... a bit difficult to hedge?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:27 | 1101245 Doode
Doode's picture

Quantum mechanics says everything has some odds of happening - it is the tool you need to use here. All others will produce zeros. The odds of that happening are as high as odds that our moon would crash into earth because it is so close now.

 

In fact, I know of a lot of people that go out and either eat in Japanese restraunts or buy Japanese things in solidarity to help. So the odds are the opposite might happen of what you are saying.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:01 | 1101360 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Um, the moon gets further and further away from the earth every day. If it weren't for the limited lifespan of the sun the moon would eventually excape this planet's pull as I wish I could...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:17 | 1101373 Doode
Doode's picture

The moon got really close a few days ago - called supermoon etc due to its eliptical orbit. In the long term the moon does move further and further away from the earth.

 

Update: the author is probably in the "short Japan" camp - been patiently waiting for years for something to happen so now he just wants to spread his "love" everywhere. Japanese stocks are far more likely to bounce back in the long term than anything else for such reasons as rebuilding, money printing, and overblown fears in the first place.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:38 | 1102229 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

Correct! The new "hot" market color will be radiant red, and Japan will make Billions! Tomorrow, our government will bomb Alaska.....in hopes to boost the DJIA to 13,000 and we can commence in making a multi-trillion dollar defense system that protects us from international and domestic terrorists! Forget the quality of our lives.......as long as the Dow goes up, we win in the Ponzi scheme.

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 03:41 | 1102415 Roger Knights
Roger Knights's picture

"Update: the author is probably in the "short Japan" camp - been patiently waiting for years for something to happen so now he just wants to spread his "love" everywhere."

But the author said he bought Japanese stocks when they were oversold a week or so ago, figuring they'd bounce back. His morenegative attitude now, he said, is based on a reappraisal of the situation as a nuclear contamination issue. So he's not just spouting knee-jerk negativism (by his account).

Sun, 03/27/2011 - 09:48 | 1105154 Doode
Doode's picture

Just because he said so does not mean it is so... All news coming out of Japan in regards to radiation are too sensationalist - just recently one said "Radiation is 10 MILLION times higher than normal!!!" Sounds like paper will catch on fire from radiation in the vicinity of the power plant, but no... In reality that seems like just 4 times the normal rate you get in a year. There is a serious problem there with a plant, but it is not as bad the media is painting it yet. Even the case of Chernobyl would not kill the Japanese in the long term. Chernobyl has only a 20-30 km radius of no drive in zone, which is a current evacuation area in Japan already.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:25 | 1101246 samsara
samsara's picture

That gap has narrowed and in many cases reversed over time, but now we might be hitting a stage where 'Made in Japan' is a big negative.

You mean coming full cycle.  I can remember when Made In Japan meant that it was junk.  THEN it went thru the phases you discribed.

 

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:31 | 1101269 Natasha
Natasha's picture

I was going to say the exact same thing. You beat me to it. :-)

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:29 | 1101256 ParisianThinker
ParisianThinker's picture

I will take my newly ordered handheld gieger counter with me where ever I go. Trust but verify. There is no other way to live in a world of lies, theft, cheating and killing. Buy as little as possible from the crooks who grow or make it. 

 

 

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:32 | 1101455 philosoraptor
philosoraptor's picture

Should it not be 'Parisien'? Enchanté...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:29 | 1101258 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"national pride" is not a "low probability event."  it is in direct contradiction to Japan's obvious, immediate and direct material interests to "cover-up" a "nuclear disaster."  Would you be surprised to hear "this is done elsewhere"?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:30 | 1101259 Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

 I dunno. There's something butch about owning a nuclear powered razor. The overly used term 'Turbo' is so yesterday.

3d Telefission is the new Television

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:30 | 1101261 SwingForce
SwingForce's picture

Made in Japan- Deep Purple's most classic album, er, I mean CD.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 23:00 | 1102083 WonderDawg
WonderDawg's picture

Woman From Tokyo was a great Deep Purple tune.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:31 | 1101268 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

They are fucked. Big boost for China, maybe India. The US could benefit, but I doubt it will.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:10 | 1101391 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

In the US, that upper 1/2 of 1 percent will most definitely profit.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:26 | 1101439 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

you mean "the predatory" 1/2 of 1.  probably more like "1/100th of 1."

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:54 | 1101507 Infinite QE
Infinite QE's picture

Add Korea to that mix as well. No love lost in their history with each other. Still think KIA is a strange company name as, in the war-mongering USSA, it means Killed in Action.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:39 | 1101291 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"I still remember when there was a certain cachet to Japanese made products..."....and I'm old enough to remember when that was considered the ultimate in cheap quality...."made in occupied Japan"....

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:49 | 1101323 Natasha
Natasha's picture

If memory serves correctly, in those days, Japan was on a US real estate buying binge. Many Americans viewed Japan as the future American landlord.

Now, many say the same things about China.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:42 | 1101295 TINN
TINN's picture

Norwegian Capitol Mayor (Oslo) dealing drugs (in english)

http://www.tv2nyhetene.no/innenriks/krim/her-blir-fabian-stang-tilbudt-n...

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:41 | 1101298 max2205
max2205's picture

Pretty evicient markets. Priced in the end of the world (7400) and a week later priced in a fully rebuilt Japan. Wow. Not

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:43 | 1101300 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Nakamichi tape decks.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:44 | 1101304 TINN
TINN's picture

The Last Ninja did good on tape for C64

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:47 | 1101321 Herman Strandsc...
Herman Strandschnecke's picture

Oh Yes, Nakamichi. The most profitable item I ever sold for a car.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:43 | 1101309 ParisianThinker
ParisianThinker's picture

Les carottes sont cuites

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:29 | 1101446 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

shall we say grace and eat them then?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:48 | 1101325 Dr. Kenneth Noi...
Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:55 | 1101340 destiny
destiny's picture

There would need to be still a Japan left ! nothing is more uncertain now.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:49 | 1101329 duncecap rack
duncecap rack's picture

I still think made in Japan is a selling point. They make good stuff. It is the Chinese products that scare me. Putting poisin in baby formula to increase profits? Man that is twisted. Lead painted toys for kiddies. It will still be the made in china label that puts me off. And I am one of those ninnies that goes out of his way to avoid eating food microwaved in plastic or water stored in plastic

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:54 | 1101345 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

"And I am one of those ninnies that goes out of his way to avoid eating food microwaved in plastic or water stored in plastic..."

 

Well, in order to bolster your system and prepare it for the inevitable fallout to descend upon us, you should really only eat microwaved foods and only drink from plastic bottles, preferably ones left on the dash of your car for a week or two in Phoenix, during July...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 17:57 | 1101355 clymer
clymer's picture

I'll keep my Kubota tractor, Toyota Tundra and Kawasaki KX, all run premo

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:10 | 1101395 Jigsaw
Jigsaw's picture


This could wipe out the entire MotoGP paddock when they receive their factory updates!

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:02 | 1101363 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

I've personally put off ordering a Japanese lovedoll, for now. I really don't need one that glows in the dark.

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:03 | 1101369 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

The Japanese ( in my experience ) come in two flavors "love" and "hate".  Neutral emotions tend to be rare unless you dont get to know them.

Kind of like their products love it or hate it. Those products you love, you really really love; those you hate you want to bash with a hammer. I still dont understand this strong reaction. Every other people,culture and product you can have mixed emotions on, but not the Japanese.

Extremes seem in some way hardwired into their culture/personality. Some how i dont think this tragedy will change the Japanese. At least i hope not.

 

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:11 | 1102187 Broomer
Broomer's picture

I'm guessing you never owned Sony products.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:05 | 1101370 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

The plain truth is that most Japanese people will have nowhere to go if a substantial portion of their country becomes uninhabitable. Especially the elderly, most of whom have few resources.  I can see a massive human tragedy unfolding in the near future where many, many people in Japan take their own lives rather than live in the world that GOJ and TEPCO have created for them.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:44 | 1101487 Aductor
Aductor's picture

Or, they will just kindly ask Mr Borrower a.k.a resilient US consumer to pay his debt.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:04 | 1101372 Everyman
Everyman's picture

"The nuclear problem continues to grow, and it is very different from the devastation of the earthquake or tsunami."

The real problem is that this was and is still a rare and particularly catasrophic earthquake ans tsunami, and is many orders of magnitude greater in both metric and effect than any other earthquake in history.  Most of the economist models I have seen compare this to Kobe, which was 1000s of times smaller in terms of damage and dollar value lost.  Death toll alone is going to be 5-6 times more!  The fact that over 500 Japanese companies alone that have stop producing because they do not have power, or the fact that EVERY DAY there are rolling blackouts in Tokyo and the rest of Japan for 4 hour blocks including businesses.  The revenue loss alone from non consumed energy is huge, so the offset of rebuilding and recovery is a wash and most likely in the red monitarily.

The economists that are "pricing this into" the market are insane at best and total ignorant or liars at the worst.  Thwor in the Nuclear Power Plant issue and radiated countryside and you have an even bigger issue.

I wish those wise pundits would jump off a cliff or properly use the business end of a Smith and wesson and rid us of their gross stupidity and rose colored shades.  If they want glasses that color let it be their own blood, and stop profiting on Japanese blood.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:32 | 1101440 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

Its not the economists or analysts, its the Japanese bureaucracy. Its a saving face.

Its more about honor for those in power and the illusion they have created for themselves of (better then everyone else).

Thats why raising the event, to level 7 will be such a hard pill to swallow.

You will have to destroy all that delusion of self that has been building up over the years. Same as some in the USA who will have to swallow lower standards of living. Some things are hard to take, emotionally.  Their elites distroyed their own home land. Its not like they can move and be an elite in someone else's sandbox.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:31 | 1101447 JohnG
JohnG's picture

Could be considered the fourth worst earthquake since 1900.

 

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/10_largest_world.php

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:32 | 1101452 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

then we should say grace and eat indeed.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:12 | 1101397 Milstar
Milstar's picture

Tourism = 0 no one wants radiation on their getaway plus like 10% of the fishing fleet was wiped out, huge swaths of farm land cleaned away and probably has to much salinity to grow much of anything anyways.  I'm surprised that the market has bounced back as much as it did.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:19 | 1101416 Misean
Misean's picture

China has knowingly shipped products that actually kill and harm. Outside of the moonbat chicken littles, the notion raised by this article is plain ridiculous.

The real problem is the massive human tragedy made all the more horrible by the BoJ pissing away a generation of wealth on bridges to nowhere to prevent keynsian deflation.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:35 | 1101458 bbq on whitehou...
bbq on whitehouse lawn's picture

If you dont see how this is "different" then lead toys or killer puppy chow; you will.  Burning a thousand tons of hot rocks will give a new meaning to eating snow, and dancing in the rain.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:19 | 1101418 AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

I hope the vast majority of Japanese do not end up being treated like Burakumin outcasts.   

 

Except for: Shintaro Ishihara, Junichiro Koizumi, The Uyoku Dantai and Yamaguchi-gumi.

They can all go to hell.

ne

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:40 | 1101473 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

and the "Hiroshima" and "Nagasaki"?

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:52 | 1101504 AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

Don't understand.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 18:55 | 1101515 Infinite QE
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The survivors of the two a-bombs in Japan were treated as pariah. Many had to lie about their exposure or background in order to get jobs in post-war Japan.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:04 | 1101542 AG BCN
AG BCN's picture

cheers.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:05 | 1101545 Hedgetard55
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First car - VW Dasher - fell apart at 75,000 miles.

Second car - Mazda RX-7 - going strong at 185,000 miles when I got hit and traded it in for...

Third car - Nissan Sentra SER, fun as hell, goes 225,000 miles. Traded in for...

Fourth car - Nissan Maxima, 175,000 miles and still going strong.

 

34 years, 4 cars, 1 German lasted me 4 years (but was bought used) 3 Jap iron over 30 years. Will stay with Jap iron.

 

 

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:10 | 1101553 PulauHantu29
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I have already loaded up on seaweed and salmon.

Guld sea food is out as far as I am concerned no matter what BS that BP feeds me.

Atlantic so-so since some of the BP oil has likely made its way alomg our east coast.

Alaskan salmon is safe...for the moment, so I stocked up on some solid cans of unradiated salmon.

Forget sushi for the foreseeable future..imho.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:23 | 1101584 PhattyBuoy
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Sencha green tea ...

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:22 | 1101578 TexDenim
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I still remember when there was a certain cachet to Japanese made products.

 

And I'm old enough to remember when "Made in Japan" meant "cheap piece of shit" -- usually plastic toys and radios that broke real fast. The Japanese have come full circle.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:19 | 1101863 slewie the pi-rat
slewie the pi-rat's picture

me too.  but look at me.   and look at you!

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:48 | 1101636 Nobody
Nobody's picture

As a cotton farmer I called a friend and told him that I was deverting 200 acres of cotton to rice My reasoning was that Japanese people would rather eat than make glow in the dark teeshirts

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:51 | 1101651 Lapri
Lapri's picture

Japan has learned well from the US. They are Extending and Pretending. Now the cabinet commission is going to raise the safety limit of radiation in foods and drinks, so everything will be safe.

http://ex-skf.blogspot.com/2011/03/japans-extend-and-pretend-lets-raise....

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 19:59 | 1101665 Youri Carma
Sat, 03/26/2011 - 03:00 | 1102385 OldPhart
Fri, 03/25/2011 - 20:14 | 1101701 Verstehen
Verstehen's picture

Lets face it. This disaster will spew radioactive material for another TWO MONTHS.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:37 | 1101904 Youri Carma
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Disclaimer: take all these measurements as relative cause some covering up is going on especially with Unit 3

Regarding the result of analyzing the samples from the seawater around Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station of Tokyo Electric Power Co.  http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110322-2-3.pdf

Radiation at Fukishima - Dai-ichi March 24-25, 2011 http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110325-2-4.pdf

Puddle in underground of turbine building Unit 3 http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11032503-e.html

Regarding the result of concentration measurement in the stagnant water on the basement floor of the turbine building of Unit 1 of Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110325-6.pdf


Bogus Water levels for Unit 3!

Unit 3 - 25 March, 2011
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/files/en20110325-5-3.pdf


Fuel range A:-1,900mm
Fuel range B:-2,300mm
(As of 16:10 March 25th)

FEPC Information Sheet for Fukushima Daiichi on March 16 2011, 16 March 2011, by Rod Adams (Atomic Insights) http://atomicinsights.blogspot.com/2011/03/fepc-information-sheet-for-fukushima.html

Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor: At 9:55AM on March 16, The water level inside the reactor core was measured at 1.9 meters below the top of the fuel rods.

Fri, 03/25/2011 - 21:54 | 1101936 Beau Tox
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I will put up a Japanese family in my extra 3 BR, 2 BA house on 2 acres in Mandeville, LA, but only if they are in agricultural, animal husbandry, food preparation or fishing trade.

 

Beau Tox

Sat, 03/26/2011 - 00:42 | 1102237 CaveatEmptor
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Nikkei is reporting that the government is mulling easing radiation guidelines for food and water. 

 

Japan Mulls Easing Radiation Guidelines For Food, Water

 

The government is thinking about raising radiation thresholds for food and water to bring Japanese guidelines more into line with international standards, The Nikkei reported in its Saturday morning edition.
Provisional guidelines from the Health Ministry set 5 millisieverts per year or lower as the safe level for humans. But the Cabinet Office's Food Safety Commission is expected to recommend next week that the figure be revised up to 10 millisieverts per year or even higher.
"The Health Ministry's provisional value of 5 millisieverts per year is too stringent," one member said Friday in a meeting of the food safety panel.
"Considering the water shortage and other chaos, we should ease the threshold by taking the international standards into account," this member argued, referring to how bottled mineral water sold out in the Tokyo metropolitan area following a warning on heightened radiation levels in tap water there.
"We aim to discuss a raising" of the level, commission Chairwoman Naoko Koizumi said after Friday's meeting, adding that keeping the current levels unchanged "could cause health problems by creating water shortages in disaster-hit areas and elsewhere."
Back in 1984, the International Commission on Radiological Protection set radiation reference levels for food in the event of a nuclear disaster at 5 to 50 millisieverts for the whole body the first year after the accident and at 50 to 500 millisieverts for individual internal organs.
In 1992, the commission revised the range for whole-body radiation to 10 to 50 millisieverts. It also allowed room for the lower end to be raised far above 10 millisieverts if alternative food supplies are difficult to obtain or if hewing to strict standards would likely cause a panic.
The Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission drew up Japanese standards by adopting 5 millisieverts, the lower end of the ICRP's 1984 recommendation, as the maximum threshold.
In the wake of the damage to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant from March 11 earthquake and tsunami, the Health Ministry set provisional radiation level guidelines March 17 using the commission's strict standards as a base.
Radioactivity exceeding the provisional guidelines has been found in vegetables and tap water in Fukushima, Tokyo and Chiba, prompting the ministry to issue warnings.
Doubling the provisional value to 10 millisieverts will result in doubling the maximum level of radioactive cesium for drinking water and milk to 400 becquerels per kilogram and that for vegetables and meat to 1,000 becquerels per kilogram.

http://www.ytwhw.com/2011/0326/Japan-Mulls-Easing-Radiation-Guidelines-For-Food-Water.html

Fri, 07/15/2011 - 05:58 | 1458656 hama
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Fri, 07/15/2011 - 07:53 | 1458796 hama
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You're still making variations of the NT bet today... High risk gambling on securities that have already made huge moves, never planning for the party to end. Parties always end. Bankers and insiders are selling into the high prices. To succeed one needs to do what they do -- buying when it's uncomfortable. You do the opposite and keep losing.
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Sat, 07/16/2011 - 09:14 | 1461922 hama
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I have to say I always thought the story was far from over. There's far too much at stake and far too many people with conflicting interests involved. Egypt could easily devolve in to civil war. It only gets uglier from here. Yemen could easily go the same way.
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Sat, 07/16/2011 - 18:49 | 1462737 hama
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The first thing in the morning ZH read makes me wonder? Is the confidence and faith in the Government and Media so destroyed that it can not be rebuilt? Not to say that I believe any one of the sons of bitches. Just sayin that some how some way, trust has to be re-invented.
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Tue, 07/26/2011 - 11:02 | 1494401 pama
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It's retarded shit like this that really detracts from the quality of the site.
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Wed, 08/17/2011 - 09:14 | 1568537 pama
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When it comes to London's property market, I fear there will be no fairy tale ending.
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