Guest Post: Mapping The Critical 2011 Themes

Tyler Durden's picture

Submitted by Gordon T. Long, Excerpted from 2011 Thesis Paper: Beggar-thy-Neighbor at Tipping Points

Mapping the Critical 2011 Themes

The conclusions of our "2011 Thesis - Beggar-thy-Neighbor" was that the world is on a glide path towards a global Fiat Currency Failure and the emergence of a New World Order. We are unclear whether it is planned or happenstance, but what the regularly conducted abstraction mapping process clearly indicates is that it is presently a high probability outcome.

The paper (which will be made available to non subscribers March 11th, 2011- sign-up) uses the Process of Abstraction to avoid the media noise, abstract the facts, synthesis key macro drivers and then arrive at the highest probability outcomes.

In the recent article "2011 Tipping Points" we laid out the 37 major Tipping Points we are presently tracking. These Tipping Points are show on the left hand side of the two charts below, which are the basis upon which our ongoing analysis process is conducted.  These highly simplified representations of the process gives the reader a graphical perspective on what leads us to our conclusions.


Our process has been signaling an era of conflict and tension was ahead for over 18 months.  Our most recent analysis is showing this theme becoming much more pronounced and possibly accelerating.

DRIVER I: Debt Saturation
The Tipping Points of: 1-Sovereign Debt - PIIGS, 2- EU Banking Crisis, 3, Risk Reversal, 4-US State & Local Government, 6-Rising Inflation Pressures and Interest Rates, 8-Chronic Unemployment, 11-Residential Real Estate-Phase II, 12-Commercial Real Estate, 13-Public Policy Miscues (i.e. flawed fiscal & budget policy), 14- Oil Price Pressures, 15-Bond Bubble, 16 Pension-Entitlement Crisis and many more of our 37 Tipping Points are fundamentally about debt and credit. They are related in some fashion to the inability to service this debt and the problems which that incurs.

DRIVER II: Social Unrest
The Tipping Points of: 5-Food Price Pressures, 8-Chronic Unemployment, 6-Rising Interest Pressures and Interest Rates, 16-Pension-Entitlement Crisis 19-Credit Contraction II are just a few of the Tipping Points that are creating the underpinnings for the beginnings of Social Unrest in many countries and regions around the world.

CATALYST I: The combination of Debt Saturation and Social Unrest are the catalyst for:

THEME I: Currency Wars & Political Policies of 'Beggar-thy-Neighbor'

  • Competitive Currency Devaluation
  • Protectionism, Tariffs and Capital Controls

THEME II: Banking & Credit Crisis II

  • Toxic assets & massive hidden 'underwater' Residential and Commercial Real Estate loans.
  • Looming government debt 'haircuts' and possible defaults (Iceland, Ireland?)

DRIVER III: Geo-Political Tensions

The Tipping Points of: 10-Geo-Political Events (such as presently seen throughout North Africa and the Middle East), 30-North and South Korea, 35-Iran Nuclear Ambitions, 33-Terrorist Threats and operating factions, all are creating Geo-Political Tensions. They appear to be broadening and touching all regions to various degrees.

DRIVER IV: Global Economic Income and Growth Imbalances
The Tipping Points such as: 31-US Fiscal, Trade & Account Imbalances, 24-Shrinking Revenue Growth Rates, 25-Global Output Gap, 17-Central and Eastern Europe, 9-China Bubble and 29-Slowing Retail & Consumer Sales are just some of the Tipping Points within Driver IV. The seriousness of global income and growth imbalances is continuously stressed by all economists as a central dilemma that must be addressed.

CATALYST II: The Social Unrest, Geo-Political Tensions and Global Economic & Income Imbalances drivers are the tinderbox for:

THEME III: A Collapsing Western (G7) Social Net

  • EU countries attempting to strip entitlements as part of 'austerity' policies.
  • US State / Local government crisis over public union benefits versus Private sector compensation.

THEME IV:  West-to-East Power Shift

  • We are already seeing a well defined shift from the US to Asia.
  • Manufacturing and Supply Chain migrations is accelerating to Financial, Banking and R&D.



There are many indications that we are well along towards an evolving Fiat Currency Failure..


DRIVER V: Regionalization
The Tipping Points of: 1- Sovereign Debt-PIIGS, 2- EU Banking Crisis, 9-China Bubble, 10-Geo-Politcal Events (Middle East and North Africa), 12-Central & Eastern Europe, 20-Japan Debt Deflation, 27-US Reserve Currency and 26-US Dollar Weakness are indicators of increasing Regionalization around the world. Sovereign States are more and more becoming trading blocks for competitive advantage and economic survival.

DRIVER VI: Resource Shortages
The Tipping Points of: 5-Food Shortages, 14-Oil Pressures, 6-Rising Inflation Pressures coupled with an explosion in global Commodity prices is an indication of shortages. The world's population is growing rapidly along with elevated standards of living in the Emerging Markets. These are putting serious strains on global resources

DRIVER VII: Emerging Markets
The Tipping Points of: 31-US Fiscal, Trade and Account Balances, 26-US Dollar fears, the sustainability of 27- US Reserve Currency and other imbalances are driving the emergence of new players until the world stage. What was only recently the 'G5' center of power, is now the G20. The twice yearly G20 meeting now takes center stage in global issues.

CATALYST III: Regionalization, Resources Shortages and Emerging Markets

THEME V: Global Corporatocracy

  • Mercantilist driven Export Policies & Strategies which place corporate brands and jobs creation in positions of control and extensive power.
  • Globalization through Privatization, Free Trade, the World Trade Organization are now being realized.

CATALYST IV: Resource Shortages and Emerging Markets
Resources and Emerging Markets leads to Theme VI.

THEME VI: Shifting Value Creation

  • It's about Jobs, Jobs, Jobs Creation
  • Knowledge Based societies versus resource centric.
  • National Competitive Advantage Strategies,
  • Critical Sovereign Dependencies,

If we couple THEME: V - Global Corporatocracy with THEME: III - Collapsing Western Social Net and THEME IV - West to East Power Shift we have the following directional result.



Either by design & plan or just happenstance a new world order is on the horizon.     

All of the above lead to an overall thesis of CHANGE in 2011 and 2012.

We delve into all the of the above in detail in our 2011 THESIS: BEGGAR-THY-NEIGHBOR.
sign-up for your free copy to be released to Non-Subscribers March 11, 2011.

"I care not who Rules but who controls the Money.

The REAL Power lies with who controls the Money!"

           - Nathaniel Rothschild

“The Banker wins in the Era of Corporatocracy”

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TorchFire's picture

Translation: We are fucked.

JW n FL's picture

do you have Silver? to trade? you dont want to pay an oz. of gold for a loaf of bread...

do you have water? control over a water source that you own?

do you have food? can you provide food for yourself if you had too?

do you have medicine that you need to survive, 180 days worth? see what the legal max is and get on getting control over your medicine.

now, the really big / important part... can youd defend yourself and protect your loved ones?

The Police departments around the Country are making HUGE cuts... 1/2 in some cases, while the Politicians stay employed to talk and talk and talk... talking is more important than the police catching bad guys, welcome to your world.

maybe things get ruff and maybe they dont... but be prepared either way. Safety First!

asdasmos's picture

Mr. Sprott sure has silver.

Eric Sprott

BNN talks to one of the world's leading investor's and investment strategists Eric Sprott, CEO of Sprott Asset Management and finds out just how precious the metals are.

ft65's picture

Quoting JW n FL / GLP ^TrInIty^

>>do you have medicine that you need to survive, 180 days worth?

>>see what the legal max is and get on getting control over your medicine.

WTF?... I have not taken any kind of medication (including aspirin / paracetamol etc.) in over 20 years. I do occasionally treat athletes foot with tee tree oil, and during the winter months supplement my diet with vitamin D3.

Sorry for any of you guys out there who require regular medication (esp. Lithium - JW n FL ???)

JW n FL / GLP ^TrInIty^, 180 days later, when you appear from the bunker, blinking in the sunlight, a few cases of ammo lighter. Exactly what paradice are you and your gold and silver going to come out to?


BYW, like the new picture / avatar  ?



Marcus_Junius_Brutus's picture

Preventative cure for athletes foot. Pee in the shower (when the water is running)

I live in Hong Kong and suffered non-stop athlete's foot till someone told me this trick.

Incidentally pee is also the cure for jelly fish stings and some insect stings.

Mix it with scat and you can tan leather.

Going on from this... Mix scat and mud and you can make daub for wattle and daub construction. Pigs are an especially good source for this.

All this waste you can recycle...

DaveyJones's picture

"critical" as in medically speaking

covert's picture

yes and complexity hides the truth. this complex mess will eventually lead to a total meltdown leading to barter.


rookie's picture

The chart on page 271 of Rogoff's "This Time is Different" is alot easier on the eyes if you want to know what happens next.

pslater's picture

Can you post that chart?

EscapeKey's picture

Just scanned it from my copy, just cos' I'm bored.

New_Meat's picture

another student.  Thumbs up.

magis00's picture

1083 views as of 7:15am EST.  Thanks for the link.

Atomizer's picture

IMF Monopoly Electronic Banking Game. 

BIS & World Bank Deluxe Editions sold separately.  

Abitdodgie's picture

Do some of the propertys qualify for N.I.N.J.A , and can you leverage ?

Mercury's picture

I really like the 2-D political scale (left-right and anarchist-totalitarian).  So many people have difficulty grasping how nominal opposites like fascists and communists arrive almost at the same point in practice.

I might have put the ACLU (of the last 10 years anyway) a bit closer to the equator though.

Gotta love how these guys have Obama and Marx so close they overlap too.

flattrader's picture

Two side of the same coin...the "coin" being "statism".

Bob's picture

Or is it corporatism with a government facade?

EscapeKey's picture

“Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power” - Benito Mussolini

Bob's picture

Benito may be old school though--what if you have an outright take-over and sell-off rather than a merger?

piceridu's picture

That quote is so perfect. Here's more:


 Fourteen Characteristics of Fascism -

 1. Powerful and Continuing Nationalism - Fascist regimes tend to make constant use of patriotic mottos, slogans, symbols, songs, and other paraphernalia. Flags are seen everywhere, as are flag symbols on clothing and in public displays. 

2. Disdain for the Recognition of Human Rights - Because of fear of enemies and the need for security, the people in fascist regimes are persuaded that human rights can be ignored in certain cases because of "need." The people tend to look the other way or even approve of torture, summary executions, assassinations, long incarcerations of prisoners, etc. 

3. Identification of Enemies/Scapegoats as a Unifying Cause - The people are rallied into a unifying patriotic frenzy over the need to eliminate a perceived common threat or foe: racial , ethnic or religious minorities; liberals; communists; socialists, terrorists, etc. 

4. Supremacy of the Military - Even when there are widespread domestic problems, the military is given a disproportionate amount of government funding, and the domestic agenda is neglected. Soldiers and military service are glamorized. 

5. Rampant Sexism - The governments of fascist nations tend to be almost exclusively male-dominated. Under fascist regimes, traditional gender roles are made more rigid. Divorce, abortion and homosexuality are suppressed and the state is represented as the ultimate guardian of the family institution. 

6. Controlled Mass Media - Sometimes to media is directly controlled by the government, but in other cases, the media is indirectly controlled by government regulation, or sympathetic media spokespeople and executives. Censorship, especially in war time, is very common. 

7. Obsession with National Security - Fear is used as a motivational tool by the government over the masses. 

8. Religion and Government are Intertwined - Governments in fascist nations tend to use the most common religion in the nation as a tool to manipulate public opinion. Religious rhetoric and terminology is common from government leaders, even when the major tenets of the religion are diametrically opposed to the government's policies or actions. 

9. Corporate Power is Protected - The industrial and business aristocracy of a fascist nation often are the ones who put the government leaders into power, creating a mutually beneficial business/government relationship and power elite. 

10. Labor Power is Suppressed - Because the organizing power of labor is the only real threat to a fascist government, labor unions are either eliminated entirely, or are severely suppressed. 

11. Disdain for Intellectuals and the Arts - Fascist nations tend to promote and tolerate open hostility to higher education, and academia. It is not uncommon for professors and other academics to be censored or even arrested. Free expression in the arts and letters is openly attacked. 

12. Obsession with Crime and Punishment - Under fascist regimes, the police are given almost limitless power to enforce laws. The people are often willing to overlook police abuses and even forego civil liberties in the name of patriotism. There is often a national police force with virtually unlimited power in fascist nations. 

13. Rampant Cronyism and Corruption - Fascist regimes almost always are governed by groups of friends and associates who appoint each other to government positions and use governmental power and authority to protect their friends from accountability. It is not uncommon in fascist regimes for national resources and even treasures to be appropriated or even outright stolen by government leaders. 

14. Fraudulent Elections - Sometimes elections in fascist nations are a complete sham. Other times elections are manipulated by smear campaigns against or even assassination of opposition candidates, use of legislation to control voting numbers or political district boundaries, and manipulation of the media. Fascist nations also typically use their judiciaries to manipulate or control elections.

Bob's picture

What's that got to do with US?

New_Meat's picture

Philip Dru-->WW-->FDR

                    | -->BM

Bob's picture

You're right: Everything to do with us. 

moregoldplease's picture

Gee, sounds a lot like the Soviet Union, Red China, Cuba, Hugo Chavez. Who would have guessed?

Milestones's picture

"There are more similarities than differences between opposites"  Eric Hoffer "The True Believer"


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

I'll believe the NWO when I see it.

And I am watching.

EscapeKey's picture

Yeah, I think it's bollocks too.

All the security measures being put into place, is in preparation for economic collapse + peak oil, and hence they will legally be able to roll tanks into the streets and declare martial law, etc.

At least, that's my take on the situation.

Dr. Porkchop's picture

This one world currency narrative is bollocks, in my opinion. They've got one now, and it's failing.

Dingleberry Jones's picture

Agree with both of you. I do believe that some of the world's uber-rich individuals and families try to play a game of high level Risk with the world.  I do not for once second believe that these people act in concert. Just like with anything else, there are alliances, enemies, backstabbing, and subterfuge.   I don't see how this will change, as the power hungry, by definition, want it for themselves and their heirs. 

Also, like you said, the world already uses the dollar as the reserve currency.  The fiat experiment has failed. I'm wondering if the next big currency is to go with the Chinese in a fractional gold back system.  I doubt that anyone goes full gold backed, as hoarding is a serious issue with the stuff.

robobbob's picture

what you're seeing is the preparation for the transition. Even sheeple would never willing submit to the NWO slavery.

But, given a few years of insecurity, chaos, empty stomaches, and a feeling of betrayal as everything they have been promised fails, well the NWO will look like salvation.

not to mention the NWO mafia have a few internal organizational issues to work out.

theres a reason the motto is "order from chaos"

New_Meat's picture

DCRB, c'mon.  u be preppin' in anticipation. - Ned

Harmonious_Dissonance's picture

This is all WRONG, since the DOW closed below 12,000 today. Good times ahead!

koot's picture

It is called "Peak Fiat Currency"

NoKaOi's picture

Anyone who has driven from Dulles to downtown DC knows that the fascist Corporatacracy has already arrived. Just as Eisenhower warned (though he only worried about the Military-Industrial vector).

reescher's picture

Try the GW Pkwy - it's been repaved. Much smoother now.

KickIce's picture

Obama is not a populist, he believes that we should have a state militia as poweful as our armed forces.  He's a fascist.

akak's picture

Obama is not a populist

On the contrary --- he is extremely popular with corporate oligarchic sociopaths and banksters (but I repeat myself) of all stripes!

KickIce's picture

No doubt about that, but they would have to extend the left corner a bit to get him on the correct political spectrum.

EscapeKey's picture

Unlike Bush? Don't make me quote "Tragedy & Hope" again!

KickIce's picture

Funny, I don't see Bush mentioned in my post.  But yeah, they are much the same animals.

Bush = tragedy and Obama = Hope?

Arkadaba's picture

Tragicomedy? In the sixteenth century, "tragicomedy" meant the native sort of romantic play that violated the unities of time, place, and action, that glibly mixed high- and low-born characters, and that presented fantastic actions.

gwar5's picture

Nice assessement mapping.

TPTB have been dreaming about being in charge of a world govenment since the day they were born.

The banks are the real power and the government is a front. The next evolution will be the banks rolled up into the IMF as the world central bank and the UN will become their enforcement tool. 

Not happenstance. Sovereignty and institutions have been under attack for decades. That's what the CFR is for.




Bob's picture

Forgive me, but here's another theme.  Has Hoenig left the reservation? 

The Kansas City Fed leader also urged breaking up the largest banks, which he said have a lower cost of funds because of an implied government safety net. He would restore the barrier between commercial and investment banking.

“I think this is a good idea as they are so large they cannot be allowed to fail,” Hoenig said.

Hoenig also said standards for bank capital need to be raised further, and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s overhaul of standards may not go far enough in reducing leverage.

Dirt Rat's picture

You've been here long enough. You should know that ZH is one of Hoenig's biggest fans.

Bob's picture

And we're all justly suspicious, but the guy continues to push it.

Looks to me like he's positioning himself to take over when the Chairsatan falls.  Just what we need: A better Chairman of the world economic system.  :(

falak pema's picture

No way. Capitalism as we understand it is doomed as paradigm in developed economies. It will however continue to allow wealth creation and global economic levelling in this century between north and south, east and west. The new paradigm based on economia, ecologia, humania, will be developed in the developed world. The tradeoffs for creating this model will be learnt from privation and resource limitation. The GDP as measure will be replaced by another measure which incorporates both material sustenance and social harmony. The role of government will be to participate as always in creating social, cultural and infrastructure wealth in the broadest sense compatible with this paradigm. It will also arbitrate as neutral referee the economic wealth creation and subsequent redistribution by the individual and by civil society.


This being an idealised vision of the dynamic equilibrium amongst socio-cultural groups no longer organised as nation states, but by cultural affinity, thanks to the Internet linked world wide community, it will result in the usual friction and inefficiency common to all complex systems. What can be screwed up will be. But that is not unusual, it is the expression of man's existential dilemma, forever feeding his pysche. Also of nature's and time's arrow : entropy. No getting away from it except through fall and rebirth.

Bob's picture

That would be interesting.  What will become of the current breed of psychopaths?

falak pema's picture

We are now in a system of transition. A bit like the transition from agricultural society to the industrial society in 1800. The current problems are the symptoms of change. The last 'old style' industrial empire is falling. But the post industrial, quality revolution is already on. Trying to cling on to old methods of economic growth as power mantra is now sterile quest. The new model has yet to be created from the rubble of the next collapse. The banker corporatocracy  is just proxy holder of wealth, that will flow through its neutered fingers once the new paradigm emerges. As sterile elements of creativity they hold the state, awaiting new creative actors to emerge. They also continue to fuel the old system transfer from developed to developing world, to level the economic field before the new paradigm can be applied on a global scale. One thing is sure the 'global village' is now here to stay. The interface is between individuals, socio-cultural groups with specific agendas, and world regulatory organisations. The nation state has no place in this scheme of things.

toto's picture

I believe it might feel that way but don't underestimate greed.

Some of us apes will be there too.

Bob's picture

You're reading my mind, apeman.  Hard to see this working without some real serious blood flowing . . . preferably yours rather than mine, nothing personal.  

But then something tells me I won't work out for the other guys, either.  Seems like it always goes that way.