Guest Post: Market Dislocation: Dow 11,908?

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Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:20 | 874011 BigJim
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Did they have POMO and QEn back in 2000?

Methinks not.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:22 | 874026 bob_dabolina
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Who needed pomo when you had 50, 60, 70, 80,  100:1 leverage?

Same shit. We all know how that ended.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:23 | 874033 SheepDog-One
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Right they didnt have Imagination Land back then, and they still dont have it today either. 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:33 | 874086 Rogerwilco
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Greenspan was seriously spooked by the prospects of a Y2K bank run. The Fed dumped hundreds of billions into the system in the late '90s to preempt any troubles -- roughly the equivalent (in todays dollars) of the combined TARP/POMO subsidies.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:45 | 874152 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

Funny,

I've had the same feeling all day even before reading this post.

US$ off bigtime.. should be helping equities and metals, but everything's down today: stocks, metals, muni's, commodities (except ag)

Feels like.... deleveraging

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:50 | 874177 SheepDog-One
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Back in 2000, they actually HAD billions! Today? Empty bottomless pit of debt.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:58 | 874223 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

The bottomless pit of debt does have the full force of the United States Marine Corp. behind it!

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 18:51 | 874651 velobabe
velobabe's picture

just my 2¢'s, but i think these jokesta's who know the dumb damn numb american, just can't fathom what these numbers represent. i sure can't, i can't even imagine a trillion dollars is, means = nothing to a layperson like me. they know this about the people in this country. i mean i would like to have the true grasp of what these numbers and figures mean. they just come from no where and doesn't impact my mind. i think the rest of american is on my same flight path. i sure bernank and comp know this to be true in the general american populace.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 20:14 | 874857 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
by velobabe
on Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:51
#874651

 

just my 2¢'s, but i think these jokesta's who know the dumb damn numb american, just can't fathom what these numbers represent. i sure can't, i can't even imagine a trillion dollars is, means = nothing to a layperson like me. they know this about the people in this country. i mean i would like to have the true grasp of what these numbers and figures mean. they just come from no where and doesn't impact my mind. i think the rest of american is on my same flight path. i sure bernank and comp know this to be true in the general american populace.

*******************************************************************************

1st great pics from you always, God Bless You!

2nd... its not money, its not paper... it is "1's" and "0's"! being moved from point "A" to "B".

3rd... and most importantly... people, I will use my Mother as an example... My Mother gets her Bank Statement every Month and it says she has "X" amount of dollars in her Bank account... which the FDIC does protect to any amount now as described by her Personal Banker...

Now in walks me... with this in hand...

Operation 1 - RESULTS Operation Date: 1/13/2011 Operation Type: Outright Coupon Purchase Release Time: 10:15 AM Close Time: 11:00 AM Settlement Date: 1/14/2011 Bitmap
Maturity/Call Date Range:

07/31/2016 - 12/31/2017 Total Par Amt Accepted (mlns) : $8,412 Bitmap
Total Par Amt Submitted (mlns) :

$20,995    Inclusions: Bitmap

  CUSIP ID Security Description Par Amt Accepted ($) 912828LD0 T 03.250 07/31/16 3,000,000 912828FQ8 T 04.875 08/15/16 0 912828LL2 T 03.000 08/31/16 168,000,000 912828LP3 T 03.000 09/30/16 93,000,000 912828LU2 T 03.125 10/31/16 337,000,000 912828FY1 T 04.625 11/15/16 3,000,000 912810DX3 T 07.500 11/15/16 101,000,000 912828MA5 T 02.750 11/30/16 377,000,000 912828MD9 T 03.250 12/31/16 115,000,000 912828MK3 T 03.125 01/31/17 184,000,000 912828GH7 T 04.625 02/15/17 12,000,000 912828MS6 T 03.000 02/28/17 559,000,000 912828MV9 T 03.250 03/31/17 167,000,000 912828NA4 T 03.125 04/30/17 416,000,000 912828GS3 T 04.500 05/15/17 236,000,000 912810DY1 T 08.750 05/15/17 165,000,000 912828NG1 T 02.750 05/31/17 51,000,000 912828NK2 T 02.500 06/30/17 26,000,000 912828NR7 T 02.375 07/31/17 51,000,000 912828HA1 T 04.750 08/15/17 239,000,000 912810DZ8 T 08.875 08/15/17 101,000,000 912828NW6 T 01.875 08/31/17 0 912828PA2 T 01.875 09/30/17 267,000,000 912828PF1 T 01.875 10/31/17 98,000,000 912828PK0 T 02.250 11/30/17 852,000,000 912828PN4 T 02.750 12/31/17 3,791,000,000 Bitmap
 

   Exclusions: Bitmap

  CUSIP ID Security Description   912828HH6 T 04.250 11/15/17  

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm

and..... so on for the year prior...

 

and I say... Mr. Personal Banker of my Mother... what effect does this have on my Mothers Monies that are located in your Bank and NEVER, EVER change?

Is my Mother living with a false sense of security?

well....well.... well.... well.... is the answer.

 

So whether or not You understand how the money is moved (Not Printed) or not is not at issue..

 

Do You understand that $1 last year was part of "X" amount of other dollars... 12 months ago.

Now do you understand that Ben has printed 30% more money since then (Lite number 30%, to date.. please anyone tell me I am wrong by 2 fucking %... I dare you!)

Thusly, Your Money in the Bank... that looks the same as it always did is in fact worth that 30% he printed less...

The idea that things will turn, sounds great... I like things that sound good / easy, just like everyone else...

BUT! they might not. and that is as well a Blatant Fact.

So, while you can... stock up on things that you need, then things that you want and then things you where going to wait to buy when the time was right.. becuase shit, is cheap as it going to ever be again (in almost all cases).

Do you own silver? how would you trade with someone in the event that all things in the world did not go perfectly? gold? 1 oz.? pieces... you are a big spender then. good for you, but think about being prepared.

as well...

you can have all the gold and silver / platinum and / or whatever.. food / medicine... but if you cant keep it, then you dont really own it. 9 10ths of the law is possesion.

so, get an extended clip, a few of them... and load them up. or... follow this video advice from Ron White!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ueTfihcVJlI

The reality, is your quality of life will not change.. other than your food / gas / and / or other is more expensive equal to Ben's printing (and hoping and for inflation) at least... but other than that, "1's" and "0's" being moved from here to there.. dont really matter...

if this doesnt make sense... then watch this.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0gxKStPXyn8&feature=related

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 21:42 | 875072 velobabe
velobabe's picture

bless you bro, glad someone invented R O C K  n  R O L L †

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 22:56 | 875195 StychoKiller
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Assuming a dollar bill is only 6 inches long, a Trillion of them would reach from the Earth to the Sun (98 Million miles) with room to spare!

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:21 | 874015 Misean
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In 2000, Greenslime was slowing the rate printing. B.S. Bernutty hasn't just kept the throttle steady, he's put pedal to metal.

But what does a number based on fiat mean? 11,908 in Y2K Greenslime bucks (gold was 260ish) is like 52,000 Y2K11 Bernutty bucks.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:21 | 874017 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

If it happens again, what TPTB need to do is take that opportunity to restructure the banking industry when things are down.

Break up the mega-banks and write off everything that is even close to crap. Then lets get a re-set based on fundamentals instead of HFT power and leverage.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:26 | 874050 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep! Theyll certainly have learned their lesson THIS time, and realize it time to seriously reign themselves in once and for all for the good of the peasantry.  ;P

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:22 | 874023 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

I personally hope all the permabulls get caught in a few major down drafts, confident Bennie will come save the day for them while they watch it all continue to slide down. Theyre at the end of their rope, calls for more Q/E's out into infinity are just nonsense, they're fooling no one.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:06 | 874270 duo
duo's picture

The close before Intel's earnings in 2000 was the high, right?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:22 | 874024 Arch Duke Ferdinand
Arch Duke Ferdinand's picture

Could the U.S. Dollar rise 50%?

"It is well within the range of possibility that both bonds and stock markets will experience 25% declines....meanwhile the vast debts remain...a mad rush for U.S. ensues..."

http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/01/could-us-dollar-rise-50.html

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:44 | 874146 abalone
abalone's picture

Go "The Duke" with scoop

I like it

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:22 | 874025 Deep
Deep's picture

Correct me if i am wromg, I do not see DOW hitting 11908 first week of Jan. 2000

 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:23 | 874031 RobotTrader
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Maybe gold stocks are telegraphing an epic crash in risk assets.

After all, they always decline 3x faster than anything else in a "dislocation".

As of now, bank and retail stocks remain unfazed.  We'll have to see if they crack to confirm gold's weakness.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:29 | 874066 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Would you characterize today's action as "bludgeoned" or just "blowtorched"...also would this action be on "world record volume" or just "national record volume".

LOL

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:31 | 874077 SheepDog-One
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Robo personally I think youre talking out of your ass.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:38 | 874112 Sophist Economicus
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Is that what that smell is?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:41 | 874129 SwingForce
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If your feet smell and your nose runs, you're built upside down.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:36 | 874102 erik
erik's picture

XRT (retail) has not regained its highs along with the major indices.  XLF (financials) is still below April highs for now.

The major non-confirmation of a market selloff occurred today with the USD dropping beneath its 50 day moving average.  The confirmation of a potential selloff still has 4 signals supporting it; copper, crude oil, 10 year, retail.

Thus 4 of 5 are not sounding the all-clear signal just yet.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:40 | 874124 Robot Traders Mom
Robot Traders Mom's picture

Come up stairs honey. Your trench coat friends are here to play world of warcraft again.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:44 | 874126 AGoldhamster
AGoldhamster's picture

Roboboy - as a whole in your camp - since already early this european morning: http://marketcyclesresearch.blogspot.com/2011/01/imho-we-are-very-close-to-next-sell-off.html

132x, 128x and 126x my next targets. Though not sure whether all will be hit. But anyway for those positioned on the right side of this raid - a lot of fun. As with the profits later - at the lows - we will have enough power to double up the longs ... long live white witch Blythe ... and blythe bitchez 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:57 | 874214 trav7777
trav7777's picture

I have been wondering the same thing as the HUI and XAU fail to confirm the POG.  But, at the same time, the TLT continues its epic slide.

Bank and retail stocks won't be the place to be during such a crash...but given price dynamics lately, there is nowhere to be.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:02 | 874243 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Like or Love what he says... he bases his comments in numerical facts and historical trends. FACT! and then he takes his time to come here and share his findings. so that you fucking monkeys fucking a football can bash him.

 

so, allow me to once again remind everyone here.. we are on the same team, like it or not.

 

Robo was down for a while last year and missed while he was gone...

 

So unless you can fucking show a chart where Robo is wrong... junk your momma or your wife / sister.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:10 | 874290 abalone
abalone's picture

Well said...I must say your new avatar has softened your image a notch too

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 20:20 | 874882 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Careful... truth will get you junked, no one likes ugly facts... thusly its my fucking fault shit is fucked up and I tell the truth...

 

as for the attack dog! highly trained to jump and lick any and almost all people! Divorce will make you meaner and nicer all at the same time... I am not always as angry as I used to be, just some times now.

Sat, 01/15/2011 - 00:26 | 878294 abalone
abalone's picture

Glad to hear. You certainly weren't scared that's for sure. Somehow the ZH landscape has shifted as I also recall many waiting for Robo's unprecedented humorous market wrap ups. Oh well, I'm sure there will be a Renaissance some time soon.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 17:06 | 874273 malikai
malikai's picture

Queue QE3 and the flight to commodities and metals to follow.

Or, queue the deflationary spiral that wipes out everything.

I wonder which choice our overlords will make.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:23 | 874035 unwashedmass
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couldn't agree with this more. we coming to a terrifying moment as all the intervention fails.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:24 | 874041 Apostate
Apostate's picture

Why worry if rates are going to stay nigh zero?

Dow 72,000. Even if munis start to crack up, that money will have to go somewhere, and it won't be under the mattress. 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:29 | 874058 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

DOW is already at about 182,000 in Benniebux, priced in 2000 Greenslime $250 gold correlation.

'The money has to go somewhere and it wont be under the matress'.....far wiser place for that money to go is into stockpiles of long term food stores, firearms and ammo.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:44 | 874148 ssp2s
ssp2s's picture

"Why worry if rates are going to stay nigh zero?"

 

A million or so Tokyo housewives already have the answer.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 18:03 | 874500 Apostate
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That's a good point, except for that our favorite chairman "invests" vigorously into stocks, especially through his friends in investment banking.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:24 | 874043 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

note the intervention right now in the gold/silver markets where the CBs are now methodically walking the both of them down.

what happens when they stop?

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:25 | 874045 Whalers
Whalers's picture

Right on the money. 

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:30 | 874070 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

This ain't 2000. It ridiculous when people data mine charts to try and predict the future. Different time, different economic environment. We have tons of money being thrown into this economic machine to power it forward. That didn't happen in 2000. This will go on for some time, TPTB have no choice.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:32 | 874081 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Money throwing is over, now get back in that store room and pack up those dildoes! Housewives of america are depending on you Harry!

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:36 | 874104 fiddler_on_the_roof
fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

Funny. I like different views which Harry provides. But this is funny.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:40 | 874127 duo
duo's picture

NSA plant

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:43 | 874143 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

He is researching the ZH bears.  I wonder how much longer he will be around here.  When his stores are burning and being looted , and his Chinese made junk is being carted off, by the car trunk full, ala 1992 in Los Angeles, nobody around here will care.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:48 | 874166 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

I wonder if his stores sell that shitty Chi com furniture that makes people sick.

http://blogs.consumerreports.org/safety/2009/05/toxic-sofas-couches-rash...

Just a note to anyone that reads this. Do not and I repeat, do not buy any furniture or office chairs made in China. Gads, the things smell bad with a strong chemical odor.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:52 | 874188 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Probably shipped with bedbugs and lice in em as well.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 21:56 | 875101 The Profit Prophet
The Profit Prophet's picture

"Wangers Discount Dildos"....its got a nice ring to it.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:35 | 874096 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

You're stinking stinking up the place Harry.

Thu, 01/13/2011 - 16:38 | 874115 ForWhomTheTollBuilds
ForWhomTheTollBuilds's picture

" It ridiculous when people data mine charts to try and predict the future."

 

Wow...  just wow...

 

How's the psych paper coming?

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