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Guest Post: Mass Delusion - American Style
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Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
Mass Delusion - American Style
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that
they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and
one by one.” – Charles Mackay - Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
The American public thinks they are rugged individualists, who come
to conclusions based upon sound reason and a rational thought process.
The truth is that the vast majority of Americans act like a herd of
cattle or a horde of lemmings. Throughout history there have been many
instances of mass delusion. They include the South Sea Company bubble,
Mississippi Company bubble, Dutch Tulip bubble, and Salem witch trials.
It appears that mass delusion has replaced baseball as the
national past-time in America. In the space of the last 15 years the
American public have fallen for the three whopper delusions:
- Buy stocks for the long run
- Homes are always a great investment
- Globalization will benefit all Americans
Bill Bonner and Lila Rajiva ponder why people have always acted in a herd like manner in their outstanding book Mobs, Messiahs and Markets:
“Of course, we doubt if many public
prescriptions are really intended to solve problems. People certainly
believe they are when they propose them. But, like so much of what goes
on in a public spectacle, its favorite slogans, too, are delusional –
more in the nature of placebos than propositions. People repeat them
like Hail Marys because it makes them feel better. Most of our beliefs
about the economy – and everything else – are of this nature. They are
forms of self medication, superstitious lip service we pay to the powers
of the dark, like touching wood….or throwing salt over your shoulder.
“Stocks for the long run,” “Globalization is good.” We repeat slogans to
ourselves, because everyone else does. It is not so much bad luck we
want to avoid as being on our own. Why it is that losing your life
savings should be less painful if you have lost it in the company of one
million other losers, we don’t know. But mankind is first of all a herd
animal and fears nothing more than not being part of the herd.”
Stocks for the Long Run
The book Stocks for the Long Run was
written by Jeremy Siegel in the mid-1990′s. The premise is that if you
just buy and hold stocks over a 20 to 30 year period, you will always
make money. This was exactly what the Wall Street witch doctors ordered.
They pounded this message into the brains of every American incessantly
in their advertising campaigns, literature and propaganda. It became an
unquestioned truth. Just one problem. It isn’t the truth. Valuations
matter. The Dow Jones was at the same level in 1982 as it was in 1966.
On an inflation adjusted basis, the Dow did not get back to the 1966
level until 1990. That is 24 years of no return in the stock market. The
American public ignored the true facts and piled into equities during
the late 1990s. The result was one of the greatest examples of mass
delusion in history. The internet bubble drove the NASDAQ market to a
peak of 5,048 in March 2000. Today it sits at 2,180. Ten years after the
bubble burst, the NASDAQ is still down 57% from its peak.
Delusional Americans all over the country believed in the new
internet paradigm. Fools thought “bricks and mortar” retailers were
dead. Morons quit their jobs so they could get rich day trading. Wall
Street hucksters took advantage of this hysteria by attaching .COM to
every ridiculous IPO they shilled to the American public. Wall Street
knew these companies were pieces of crap, but they churned out the IPOs
as quickly as possible while the getting was good. The Wall Street
oligarchs made billions and the delusional American public got screwed.
You would think that average Americans would have learned their lesson
after this experience. They did not. They continued to buy into the Wall
Street lies about stocks being a sure path to riches. The fact is that
the S&P 500 is currently at the same level it was in March 1998. On
an inflation adjusted basis, it is 25% below the level of 1998. You
don’t hear this information on CNBC because the oligarchs that control
the media need the delusion to continue in order to harvest more riches
from the ignorant masses.
Home Sweet Home
“The continuing shortages of housing inventory are driving the price gains. There is no evidence of bubbles popping.” – David Lereah – Chief Economist for National Association of Realtors – 2005
“We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.
So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow,
maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit. I don’t think
it’s gonna drive the economy too far from its full employment path,
though.” – Ben Bernanke – 2005
“House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two
years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a
national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic
fundamentals.” - Ben Bernanke – 2005
Why was it that two supposedly brilliant, highly trained economists,
with countless degrees and high paying positions could be so very wrong?
Were they just mistaken or were they purposefully encouraging a
national delusion? With the bursting of the internet bubble in 2000 –
2002, Americans immediately proceeded to the next bubble. Alan Greenspan
was an almost God like figure in the early 2000s. He had “saved” the
economy countless times during his 15 year reign of terror at
the Federal Reserve. When he spoke, the American people listened. After
the internet bubble and 9/11, he proceeded to reduce interest rates to
1% for an extended period of time. He then gave the all clear sign to
Americans to take out adjustable rate mortgages. Lastly, Mr. Free
Markets decided that banks and mortgage brokers could police themselves.
The result was the greatest housing bubble in US history and a near
collapse of the worldwide financial system.
Sane economists like Robert Shiller saw it for what it was. He calmly
pointed out that home prices had pretty much tracked inflation for over
100 years. A 100% increase in home prices over the course of 3 years
was irrationally exuberant. He was scorned and ridiculed by the delusion
propagators at the NAR, the cheerleaders on CNBC, the Wall Street money
changers, the Federal Reserve stuffed suits, and the corrupt
politicians in Washington DC. The usual drivel about positive
demographics, low interest rates, strong income growth, and limited land
to develop were spewed out by the corporate media complex. The
beneficiaries of this mass delusion were the Wall Street banks that
created mortgage products and derivatives faster than Obama spreads our
wealth around.
Mass delusion is always encouraged by those who benefit most from the
mass delusion. David Lereah has admitted that he lied about the housing
bubble because he was employed by realtors. Realtors made millions in
commissions. Appraisers made millions in fees by inflating appraisals.
Mortgage brokers made millions by encouraging people to lie on mortgage
applications. Wall Street whores made billions by creating toxic
packages of mortgages and selling them to Irish nuns, old ladies
and clueless municipal administrators. The ratings agencies made
hundreds of millions in fees for slapping AAA ratings on toxic
derivatives. Politicians got rich from political “contributions”
from Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Wall Street, and the NAR. Any reasonable
human being could look at the chart above and see that this would end
badly, but Americans wanted to be deluded. They choose to believe. The
housing market has now been falling for five years, with another five
years to go. Ben Bernanke has reduced interest rates to zero. I wonder
how that will work out.
Who Benefited from Globalization?
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain
From the time that Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement in 1994,
globalization has been touted by those in power as beneficial to all
Americans. How could free markets and free trade be a bad thing?
Corporate America, Wall Street, and the mainstream corporate media have
blared the propaganda of globalization benefits from their loudspeakers.
In theory, globalization appears to be a positive concept. It describes
a process by which regional economies, societies, and cultures have
become integrated through a global network of communication,
transportation, and trade. The truth is that globalization is not
inherently good or inherently bad. The idea is that each country has its
own strengths and weaknesses. Each country will take advantage of their
strengths and rely on other countries to help mitigate their
weaknesses. This will result in increased trade, a larger world market,
and economic progress for all. One small problem. Trade is not really
free. Every country on earth protects various industries. Every country
on earth manipulates their currency in order to get an edge. Every
country on earth invokes tariffs to protect their national interests.
Bill Bonner and Lila Rajiva address the difficulties of globalization and “free trade” in Mobs, Messiahs and Markets:
“Unfair trade is yet another of the
dodgy slogans festooning the spectacle of globalization like tinsel
slithering around a pole dancer. How can different regulations and
practices in different countries constitute unfairness? Isn’t the
essence of trade that different countries have different things to offer
– whether cheap labor, or better technology, or more bountiful natural
resources, or more welcoming business environments? If all countries had
exactly the same things to offer each other, there would be no reason
to trade at all. But what “fair” trade advocates are really advocating,
of course, is unfair trade! They want to make sure their foreign
competitors divest themselves of the very advantages that they bring to
trading.”
“We notice, for instance, that when
Americans in Detroit lose jobs to other Americans in California, they
might grumble a bit. But, by and large, they accept it as part of the
nature of things. They move, or retrain, or change jobs. But when they
lose their jobs to Japanese in Osaka or Indians in Bangalore, then a cry
goes up. Unfair trade, howl the trade unions; race to the bottom, scold
the social activists; yellow – or brown – peril, shriek the xenophobes
and racists.”
It seems the American middle class was sold a false bill of goods.
They bought the Big Lie that globalization would benefit them. They
bought into the delusion that even though their high paying
manufacturing jobs sailed away to China and India, they could maintain
their lifestyle through brain work, easy credit, cheap goods made in
China by the people who took their jobs, and the ever increasing value
of their homes. Noam Chomsky notes the fallacy of this delusion:
“The dominant propaganda systems have
appropriated the term “globalization” to refer to the specific version
of international economic integration that they favor, which privileges
the rights of investors and lenders, those of people being incidental.”
Again, one must seek out who benefits from the delusion of
globalization. The crony capitalists, Wall Street oligarchs, and
corporate fascists who control the puppet strings in this country have
benefited greatly from the Big Lie. Over 5 million manufacturing jobs
have been off-shored since 2000. These good paying jobs are never coming
back. Millions of service sector jobs continue to be shipped overseas.
The global conglomerates like GE, HP, Oracle, IBM, and Boeing continue
to rake in billions of profits, distributing millions to its high paid
executives, while gutting middle class America. The ruling oligarchs
convinced Americans to take advantage of cheap goods and easy credit, to
buy electronics, cars, appliances, new kitchens, and take the vacations
of their dreams. This Big Lie has left the American consumer with $2.5
trillion of non-mortgage debt and the lowest level of home equity in
history. Retailers like Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot, and Best
Buy reaped billions in profits as Americans whipped out one of their 10
credit cards to buy HDTV’s, economy bags of tube socks, iPads, iPods,
stainless steel refrigerators, and Dell computers. Small town America’s
mom and pop economy was gutted by Big Box retailers selling the
globalization delusion. The biggest beneficiaries of the globalization
delusion were the Wall Street banks. They control 80% of credit card
market and have reaped billions in interest at rates exceeding 20%,
while sucking $20 billion per year in late fees from the clueless
public. Wall Street bankers have rewarded themselves for their
brilliance in destroying the middle class by reaping multi-million
dollar bonus packages.
Vincible Ignorance
“Most ignorance is vincible ignorance. We don’t know because we don’t want to know.” - Aldous Huxley
Based on all available evidence, it seems the American public wants
to be misled. They have chosen ignorance over knowledge and
understanding. They want to believe their corrupt leaders. They want to
believe that things always work out in the long run. They want to
believe that the economy is about to get better. They don’t want to
think about unsustainable debt, unfunded liabilities, saving for
retirement, or Simon Cowell leaving American Idol. Americans desperately
want to be deluded into another bubble, but there are no evident
bubbles left to blow. The existing American delusion is that the
current fiscal path will not lead to the utter destruction of our once
great Republic.
America resembles a 40 year old aging baseball icon with two bad
knees, a pot belly, receding hairline and delusions that he is still the
ball player he was at 24. He doesn’t realize that his skills are shot,
as he flails at curveballs in the dirt thrown by 21 year old kids. The
rest of the league knows he is washed up, but he refuses to accept
reality. America isn’t even running on fumes at this point. It is
running on delusions. Politicians think they have saved the country from
a Depression by adding $3 trillion to the National Debt and allowing
Wall Street banks to pretend they are solvent. Americans have been
deluded by the ruling oligarchs that a $700 billion bank bailout, an
$800 billion pork filled stimulus plan, the Federal Reserve buying $1.2
trillion of toxic mortgages, and the Treasury forcing taxpayers to pick
up a $400 billion tab for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s bad loans has
actually solved a problem created by too much debt.
The American herd has gone mad. A few people have regained their
senses, but the vast majority still exhibits the behavior of sheep being
led to slaughter. The ruling oligarchs have utter contempt for the
average American, but they fear the masses. In order to retain their
power and wealth, they gladly hand out two years of unemployment
payments, food stamps, and welfare payments to keep the masses sedated.
The working middle class foots the bill. Corruption abounds and is
sustained by the passage of more laws and regulations. The sociopathic
powers that control the levers of power in this country need to be
brought to justice if this country has any chance at survival. The den
of vipers and thieves have trampled on the Constitution, speculated with
the country’s funds, risked blowing up the financial system, committed
fraud on a massive scale, and continue to rape and pillage the American
citizens. Vincible ignorance by the American people is no longer
a legitimate excuse. The criminals on Wall Street and Washington DC must
be routed out and Americans must awaken from their delusional state
before it is too late. I weep for the liberty of my country.
And you run and you run to catch up with the sun, but it’s sinking
Racing around to come up behind you again
The sun is the same in a relative way, but you’re older
Shorter of breath and one day closer to death
Pink Floyd – Time
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Petraeus: No Guarantee of Afghanistan Drawdown in July 2011
"Oceania has always been at war with Eurasia."
the solution for 1984 is 1776
I woke up this morning and came to the conclusion that things were just not fucked up enough. Yeah, they are plenty fucked up, but they can still get fucked up even more. Is the kick the can down the road game over? Not hardly. Bush handed Obama a mess and Obama managed to band aid things over and kick that can some more. There are going to be more bail outs coming because that is what happens when the only tool one has is to kick the can.
So when does it end? Hell, I don't know. It ends when kicking the can no longer works.
B I G sign 30ft x 30ft on highway driving into the lead ville.
IF YOU VOTED FOR BARACK OBAMA
ARE YOU EMBARRASSED, YET?
Damn straight. Voting for Obama led directly to the Internet Bubble, the Housing bubble and the 9 1 1 attacks. That bastard just wants to destroy America.
You said it, I didn't.
- Ned
I was always told the three biggest lies were:
1. The check is in the mail.
2. I love you.
3. I won't cum in your mouth.
Yeah! And the prescription drug benefit liability is now 20 TRILLION in the red, surpassing social security liabilities. That damn socialist Obam.....ah, wait that was BUSH WHO SIGNED THAT BILL.
This is not a left right issue. Wake up.
third party,Bitchez!
you missed the B I G sign on the highway right after it:
IF YOU HAD VOTED FOR McCAIN, ARE YOU DUMB ENOUGH
TO THINK ANYTHING WOULD BE ANY DIFFERENT?
reread the article above.
Or until you cut off the kicker's feet...
Peter, Peter, American eater
Had a Republic but couldn't keep her
Sold his honor for a daily meal
'Til there was nothing left, to beg, borrow, or steal.
peter, peter america eater
had a democrat but couldn't eat her.
Or,
First we eat our children, (check)
Then we eat each other, (on-going)
Then we eat ourselves. (spirit of the future)
And, that is the end-game?!
I suppose, then, that is what we must get to in order to address the usury and corruption?
Endless war. And no real peace.
The founders, especially Washington had it right when they said to stay out these international "entanglements." Switzerland is the better example of how we should have dealt with the world.
Also, I had always thought the American people were just stupid, but they really aren't, it is hard to know anything when you have a corporate/socialist/governmental media with an agenda, and an education system that pushes politically correct tripe instead of logic and cold, hard facts.
We became too succcessful and too lazy and thought we could make a utopia, instead of understanding there is no such thing. The only utopias that have been tried (by Hitler, Mao, Lenin, Pol Pot) have been an education in how horrible human beings can be when they try to make an ideal society.
Actually a good serious implosion may do us all some good. Faster would be better, because this slow death spiral is debilitating. Luckily we have an amazing constitution - if we would just follow it and not try and subvert it.
mistaken identity. sorry.
Velobabe, did you forget who you are?
A hah! I've been wondering!
ORI
Velobabe, just like Chumbawumba, has been "capped." If you look her up in the search engine, you'll get a "You are not authorized to access this page" message. So Tyler, what's up with these prolific users that go MIA? Do they elect to kill their account, or have you been eliminating certain profiles? Which one is it Tyler, inquiring minds would like to know, given the mantra of this site...
King David on MTP this AM
as part of the power elite runup to being
drafted as President of Amerika in 2012.
World expert in counter-insurgency against the little people,
his motto Money is Ammunition...
Jim Quinn crawled out from under his turd pile at www.stinkingheap.com blog and is attempting to answer some basic questions about "Truth and the Amerikan Way".
Skip to the end of this thread for some Sunday night fun and games.
Americans are practical basing decisions on the evidence available
Zero hedge was so sure that Inflation was on the menu
And only recently is foreseeing deflation
So Tyler must be an Ameican in deed if not in fact
If you actually read zero hedge, you will know that we have been "so sure" hyperinflation is on the menu... but not before a destructive bout of deflation, at which the Fed will throw everything to preserve the last semblance of a status quo.
So....
Gold goes in the ditch while the dollar soars out of this cosmos? Then the exact inverse? If so, I agree - despite popular opinion from posters on the forum.
I think the obsession with gold is a prime example of mass delusion on a global scale. There might become a time when everyone is killing everyone else for it, but not before a deflationary buzzsaw chops it below $1000.
Oh...and one other mass delusion - the bearded Man in the sky who works in mysterious ways and wants 10% of your income.
It depends Red Neck. If the Europeans continue to panic when the Euro drops and buy gold it might create a continuation of the gold and dollar both going up. When the dollar has backed off gold has remained relatively flat. People keep touting silver as out of ratio but I think it isn't dense enough for the rich and the industrial uses are diminished with the death of 35mm film and solid state electronics that buying it is senseless.
I'm in the process of getting in biking shape and purchasing a nice bicycle. Learning to create water filters out of charcoal (mesquite trees everywhere ready to be made into ash) and storing food. I'd ideally want to be able to run my deep freeze on solar and would be set. Only after I have those aligned and enough food for a year and the plans to continue to grow my own food would I consider gold. Obese people will turn into mindless zombies when mcdonalds can no longer supply their blood sugar spike and 3000 calorie meals.
I suggest a refresher on the copious industrial applications in which Silver is bieng used and will be used going forth based on its unique charactersics and its current undervaluation due primarily to blatant market manipulation by guess who...JP Morgan and other cartel members, aka the enemies of real money. the only thing senseless about Silver is those individuals the author of this essay has depicted most accurately who dont own any and who still believe that the debt coupon dollar the bankers concoct out of nothingness is anything other than worthless paper....
If money is meant to be a proxy for labor, precious metals are not money. The value of labor decays over time, as entropy causes the value of the product of that labor to decay. If money is to be a proxy to labor, its value must decay in time as well. Consider that labor performed 100 years ago is not worth as much as labor performed today. Because of the effects of time, the company/institution the 100-year-old labor helped support has probably failed. And so no one can benefit from the company/institution any longer. The same is true for 20-year-old labor, under a probabilistic argument. If there's a 10% chance that the institution you helped create is destroyed, your 20 year old dollar is worth 10% more than it should be, based on the denomination on the bill. This is very simple: If I cannot benefit from your labor, you cannot benefit from mine. Retirement is freeloading. The Gold Standard is rent seeking on the grandest scale. The entropy effects on gold are utterly miniscule, pulling value out of today's labor.
People who seek a PM backed currency are rent seekers (seeking scarcity rent). If used as currency, precious metals will become more valuable in time, as more and more peoples' labor compete for the same slivers. An economy in which one can become wealthy by doing nothing is unhealthy.
I really like what you wrote. I'm not sure I agree fully but in part. Great post. And now I see some one junked you, I guess they got frustrated because you used some big words.
People who seek a PM backed currency are rent seekers (seeking scarcity rent)
That's definitely one reason. I've seen some admit it and others not.
In economics, rent seeking occurs when an individual, organization or firm seeks to earn income by capturing economic rent through manipulation or exploitation of the economic or political environment, rather than by earning profits through economic transactions and the production of added wealth.
Most studies of rent seeking focus on efforts to capture special monopoly privileges, such as government regulation of free enterprise competition, though the term itself is derived from the far older and more established practice of appropriating a portion of production by gaining ownership or control of land.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_seeking
Crockett - you junk me? Because we are actually in agreeance.
My point is that I've been reading a certain comfort level in the goldbug crowd with rent seeking - in just the way it was defined above. As you've shown it's basically unjust - so it always gives me a chuckle to see the same crowd cry foul when they witness massive market manipulation by the banksters.
I'm not fooled by the 'populism' of the gold/guns/collapse crowd. If you have the money lying around to buy that much specie and that much ammo that it's going to make a difference, you probably aren't from the bottom 90% of the folks that are getting screwed out there. Basically this group boils down to at least two discernable camps: the ones that can afford to be rent seekers (what makes them different from the banksters, again?) ..and those who are talking shit - without the firepower/money to do much to resist what comes next. If the latter group wants to collect guns and gold, fine. But that isn't the only survival strategy out there.
Crockett - you junk me? Because we are actually in agreeance.
I did not junk you and unless I am seriously mistaken we are not in agreement. I posted the wiki definition of rent seeking in order to show that those who call for a gold backed currency are in no way rent seeking. Rent seeking involves "manipulation or exploitation of the economic or political environment, rather than by earning profits through economic transactions and the production of added wealth."
The reinstitution of a gold or bimetallic standard could in no way be called rent seeking. The amount of gold in existence can not be manipulated, while the Federal Reserve Note is openly manipulated in such a way as to incur inflation. The dividends of that inflation, not to mention the interest earned by bankers on "money" which they create from nothing can be described as nothing less than rent seeking. It is manipulative, exploitive and unconstitutional.
I'm not fooled by the 'populism' of the gold/guns/collapse crowd. If you have the money lying around to buy that much specie and that much ammo that it's going to make a difference, you probably aren't from the bottom 90% of the folks that are getting screwed out there.
You don't hang out at the gun shop, do you? I can assure you that the vast majority of people through the door are regular folks. Go check it out sometime.
If the latter group wants to collect guns and gold, fine. But that isn't the only survival strategy out there.
Right, there's aways the Quisling or Vichy route.
..and here I thought your so-called 'anarchist' sensibilities were actually, well, sensible. My bad. Good luck with your nonsensical 'anarchocapitalism'. I think the actual political designation for that group is called libertarianism.
The reinstitution of a gold or bimetallic standard could in no way be called rent seeking
Right. And people hoarding gold right now hoping for a new bimetallic standard aren't rent seekers. Now who's delusional?
You don't hang out at the gun shop, do you? I can assure you that the vast majority of people through the door are regular folks.
Again, you've left out most of my argument - in which I stated that people with enough gold and guns to actually make a difference in a so-called 'collapse event' are not in the same class as 'regular folks'.
there's aways the Quisling or Vichy route. Again with the 'either you're with us or against us argument'. I don't want to be on your side, Crockett - you're a douche. I also have no love for the banksters. Unlike you, I wasn't hanging at the gunshop. I was working for these motherfuckers and learning how they operate. Know thy enemy.
There once was a Maniac Researcher,
Who imbibed banker-speak as a precursor.
Then he took up his pen,
Against sovereign men,
You could say he's a mighty fine kneejerker.
@poop
If everyone had to do something to get something and not carry any value into the future,
Then we are negating the entire economic structure of past 300 years
What are stocks and bonds?- expectation of interest upon saved and invested capital
Thinking of money as just a token of transaction is imprudent
Not that I support the present infinite money system for few, and when we are in dilemma about the role of PMs as money
we need to evolve a new system of honest money,easier said than done
who will bell the cat then??????
I agree with you mostly...I see a lot of bugs who want to buy gold and have it "go up" and then they will be rich and can buy things.
AKA, speculators. But there are others who are merely using it as a more secure savings vehicle that is portable.
There is no difference between most paperbugs and goldbugs in terms of their desire to be vultures and feast on the carcasses of the bankrupt and become "kings" of a sort. But there are others who realize that this is a bullshit fantasy and that gold is merely another form of wealth storage.
But it is true that you have to be a bit of a hitter to even afford an ounce these days. Most people can't just drop $1200 on something the size of a dollar coin
I did not junk you. Instead, I am responding to you. Those junkers were also responding to you, but failed to articulate why.
You are a shill.
For which financial parasitical organization, I have no idea. It probably doesn't matter. You joined 7-8 weeks ago, & it is clear that your agenda has been to obfuscate, divert the direction of the topic under discussion, etc, every time you respond.
Hundreds of millions of people around the world have been adversely impacted & had their lives turned upside down (or are facing that in the near future) by the actions of these financial parasites and you, in your pathetically small way are intent on furthering these parasites?
What could they possibly offer you to sell your integrity and your soul?
Are you even capable of feeling the contempt?
I'm glad someone called total bull shit on this guy. Boy, he sure did paint that up nice and pretty though.. good god..
he is essentially saying that if I worked a day in 1966 and saved 10 silver dollars from that day and didn't buy anything but saved it, that that labor should be devalued? Nonesense. Absurdity.
OK, lets tweak it a bit. Lets try 'Money is a proxy for future labor'. A good store of value will buy me another mans labor at any time in the future. Of course the results of past labor decay. That doesn't mean money has to.
You seem to relate inflation to entropic growth and claim it is as inevitable as the second law of thermodynamics, which is not true.
poop, full of shit, all that mentalizing a simple thing . I will work for silver or gold but not for a piece of shit paper, altho i do prefer charmin.
Have a better day with the mental acrobatics.
You state things as axioms which are not true.
Labor 100 years ago is worth the same as labor now. Labor is labor. It's an abstraction. The LTV from Marx, et. al., was not intended to be fixed by a particular point in time.
Whale oil labor in 1840 was worth what it was paid, this is supply and demand where value is created by the market. Do not say that this labor was worthless at THAT point in time because it is worthless now.
Software development labor now would have been worthless THEN. So, if one of us cashes a check for $100 for some coding work, our $100 is 100% overvalued? This notion that the value of labor decays due to entropy is also grossly wrong. Entropy has nothing whatsoever to do with it.
This is completely nonsensical. The value of labor is immediate. Any value at a date after the transaction that purchased the labor is fortunate but not a requirement for labor to have value. If I buy a cheeseburger at a restaurant, the labor portion of that item's creation is value received in full when I take delivery. If I fail to eat the cheeseburger and leave it to rot, that is my loss. I don't get my exchanged value back. The laborer held up his end of the bargain. If the restaurant no longer is in business a century later, what matter is that to the transaction?
The same goes for products of far greater duration than a cheeseburger. That a house built a hundred years ago and received no upkeep is likely a wreck is not the failing of the laborer who did the construction. Assuming he performed correctly at the time, the purchaser of the labor got full value.
I regularly do business with institutions decades or centuries old. They aren't just the product of labor performed long ago but a long series of labor transactions over the years, each concern with their respective moment. It was their job to make the place continue into the next moment, not the next century. That a chain of labors can achieve such longevity is just the nature of the world. We'd all be much poorer if everyone had to start from scratch, butt naked on the savannah and looking for the next meal.
The usefulness of gold or other highly durable rare element as a measure of value comes largely from its durability. A man can receive a gold coin in exchange for a service performed and hand over that gold to his grandchild a century later with full confidence that it hasn't rotted away. What value is placed on that gold may shift to and fro over that century but unless there has been a mountain of gold found inside an asteroid, the coin is still likely to be of value on an elemental basis.
Again, to say that labor performed in the past is of less value is nonsense. Unless cheap time machines come to market, labor markets live in the here and now. (A certain South Park episode comes to mind.) That the modern environment imposes a lot of additional costs on labor compared to a century ago is artificial distortion of the marketplace. It was cheaper to get a guy to drive nails into boards before expenses like Worker's Comp came on the scene but why do you suppose illegal immigrants find so much work in construction?
When you purchase an existing building instead of buying an empty lot and building on that, are you not placing value on labor performed in the past? Labor that may have been performed at the behest of persons long dead and having no connection to you. Seen that way, those long-dead laborers have delivered value to persons never part of their lives. By that measure, their labor has retroactively gained in value, since you cannot simply hop in your time machine and hire some cheap workers to build your house a century before you were looking to buy. Just the same, those long ago laborers cannot collect new income for the value gained over time as that real estate changed hands but they knew that going in. There is some consolation in that construction workers tend to make a lot more than burger flippers.
"If money is meant to be a proxy for labor, precious metals are not money. The value of labor decays over time, as entropy causes the value of the product of that labor to decay."
Let me guess...you just completed work on the Tower of Babble?
The value of the labor that produced gold 5,000 years ago has not decayed. If this statement were true then the gold would have to decay and become non-existant, and, obviously the gold still exists and has increased in every fiat currency as the fiat has been abused by successive governments around the world.
"People who seek a PM backed currency are rent seekers (seeking scarcity rent)."
By your definition all who save, in the form of fiat, gold, or sea shells, are rent seekers. Savings is the basis of real capitalism. Do you work for the Fed? They too, want everyone to spend every dime of income as quickly as the labor earns that dime. Savings, in the form of excess labor, is the only thing of value to real capitalism as it is the basis for capital investment. Of course, we no longer have real capitalism when the Fed decides where to set interest rates instead of letting a free market make that decision...which, coincidentally, forces savers into riskier asset classes to maintain their savings at purchase parity.
Gold is merely an escape valve for savers that see a government gone crazy and destroying their fiat currency. Buying gold is an insurance policy against fiat depreciation via an inflating money supply.
If you neglected to save and chose to consume, that is your porblem. You cannot solve your problem by blaming savers.
I walked across the Golden Gate Bridge yesterday. It was built ~75 years ago, and doesn't seem to have decayed too much.
Not quite true. The value of the labor that went into a 100 year old brick house has maintained its value and possibly increased, even allowing for the effects of inflation.
Likewise a Chippendale table or even a 1964 Ford Mustang provided it has been maintained in original condition.
Gold and silver fluctuate but never completely lose their value. So do many other things. If you have the room a big pile of scrap iron, scrap aluminum and scrap copper might be the ideal inflation hedge. It will always have a certain value, you can always sell it and there is very little chance of the government confiscating it.
People are assuming that they'll be able to buy and sell gold. The Chicago Fed put out an article at the end of last month, which was interesting in two notable ways.
The first was how Roosevelt managed to "print up" a ton of money to spend. This was the reason for the confiscation of gold back in the 1930's. Basically, the Fed had "printed" $1 Billion in order to prop up the economy, and didn't want to print any more. It was the original version of QE. Roosevelt side stepped the Fed by confiscating gold at a low price, revaluing it at a high price, and selling it. Presto, they managed to raise $2 Billion to spend. That's twice as much money as the Fed had done.
One has to wonder what the value of the coins in private U.S. hands is worth today. I expect the Feds to pull out all stops again (including the virtual confiscation of retirement funds). Gold seems to me to be an easy target.
The second interesting thing about the article was the timing. It struck me as a "shot across the bow". That, coupled with the 1099 reporting for gold transactions next year makes me a bit concerned about holding on to real money.
Suggest anyone worried about confiscation of gold read this blog post:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/08/confiscation-anatomy-part-2.html
I was hoping for something illuminating, but the author seems confused on some issues. Going so far as to call the results "incredible". I suggest reading the Fed's paper. It's not incredible at all.
I'd be more worried about FRN confiscation or 401ks.
Gold requires trucks and men. FRNs are in accounts where you can mouse-click them away.
When Argentina collapsed, what did THEY seize? What do countries seize these days? They grab bank accounts. They tax away property and try to turn it into cashflow.
With the size of the deficit, I'd be concerned about all three. Especially since they seem to be just warming up. Plus, you're discounting how easy it was to impose Executive Order 6102.
my argentinian friends tell me they also grabbed safe deposit boxes
so better bury that gold in your backyard, they'll never look there
So instead you would rather hold unreal money?
depends on the relative price.
if gold is over valued, yes, I'd rather hold paper money.
Christobevii3
http://www.survivalblog.com/2009/12/letter_re_the_bosnian_experien.html
Letter Re: The Bosnian Experience By James Wesley, Rawles on December 30, 2009 11:45 PMMr. Rawles,
I want to thank you for having this site and presenting people with opportunity two obtain useful information that could save their lives one day. I have been dedicated reader of your blogs for some time and now think that is my time to contribute some information instead of just reading it. I have survived through collapse of former Yugoslavia and the years of war that followed after. I will try to cover as much of different topics that pertain to every day survival. No matter on how much the person is prepared, it might not be enough.
I was born and raised on farm in Western Bosnia and we always had enough food and supplies on the farm to survive at least one year without any contact with the outside world. We grew our own wheat and corn and always had enough flour for at least three years. We also had cows, chickens and sheep for dairy products, meat and eggs. The sugar and salt would be purchased in the 50 pound equivalent bags. Besides the motor vehicles we also had horses that could be used for farm work and transportation. We even made our own brandy and had at least three years supply of it. During the peaceful times, before the collapse, we only had one firearm, Yugo M57 Tokarev pistol, with about 50 rounds of ammo, but after the things started to go down the hill, are family arsenal improved. We added a Russian PPSH 41 [submachinegun], a Yugo M48 Mauser [bolt action rifle] and a Yugo SKS [semiautomatic] rifle to our arsenal, but we only had few hundred rounds for the each weapon. A lot of times it was really easy to obtain weapons but getting the decent amount of ammo was more challenging. My father was in the reserve status of Yugoslavian Army so he was issued a M48 Mauser but only got 40 rounds of ammunition with it.
When the things started to go bad, we were under impression that we would be okay; since we are on the farm and that we can just live there until everything was over. Boy, where we wrong. When the fighting broke out, the villages, small towns and farms were systematically cleared of people, looted and destroyed. You had a better chance of surviving if you lived in an apartment in the big city of if you lived in the farm that was further away from the front lines. It does not matter how good your house is built, it will not sustain few direct hits from the T-72 tank. Also, it does not matter how well you are armed, unless you have numbers on your side (number of armed people), and you dig in and try to protect your property, you will be over-run and destroyed. Yugoslavia had a fairly strict gun laws before the collapse, basically, you could own pistols, shotguns and bolt guns but after the collapse nearly everyone was equipped with selective fire battle rifles.
I would advise that you don’t keep everything that you have in one location. I was forced to leave my house and take off with just my backpack and weapon. If you can, keep a bug out bag [cached] a few miles away from your house so that you could go to it, if you are forced to abandon your residence. Be prepared to not return to your home for years and try to have another place to live in another part of the country or even some other country. I was not able to go back to my home until years later. Stash as much ammo in different locations as you can. I did not have enough ammo in the first place and whatever I had was used or traded within first month of me leaving my home. Ammo was good trading currency and could get you a meal at any time. Local paper currency was basically worthless but if you had foreign currency, then you were in better shape. At that time German Mark was most popular currency in Europe and could get you anything in former Yugoslavia during the war. The Gold and Silver were good to have but it was harder to find someone that would accept gold and silver as form of payment .
People that lived in big towns also had their share of problems. If they lived in apartment buildings, they were dependent on central heat and when the things started to go bad, there was no more fuel to heat these apartments. Not that many people had wood burning stoves and the winters in Eastern Europe can get really cold. I would advise that if you don’t have a wood burning stove, to get one and store it somewhere until you need it. You will need it not just for heat but also for cooking. The people that had stoves or were able to obtain them or make them then had another problem, getting the firewood. If you live inside of city that is surrounded and you can’t just go outside of city and cut some trees down, obtaining firewood can become your daily battle for survival. Burning your furniture, books, park benches, trees from the parks and every other tree that you can find will be normal. I would advise that if you are going to have a stove either store at least one winter supply of firewood (if you have a place to store it at) or have a plan where you get that firewood when you need it. Another issue that people from the cities faced was the shortage of water. Some people ended up digging wells in the courtyard of their apartment buildings but majority of people who tried this were unsuccessful since they were digging where there was not water or old city utilities were under the places where they tried to dig. Most of the people were forced to make daily runs to water points and bringing the water back to their families. Water points were favorite targets for snipers. Having extra water jugs will help you minimize your visits to water points.
Since this is my first post, I will not make it too long and will stop here until the next time. - A Bosnian Survivor
Thanks Gully, I guess the person that junked you was bewildered by how things usually actually really work. this puts aside about 5 different federal laws that could easily outlaw the use or confiscate gold again. It will be useful, but not for a while into TEOTWAKI.
My recommendation for fellow ZHers is to watch the movie Idiocracy . That probably is our future.
they should also watch 'attack of the killer zombies' it sounds just like what the doomsters are all afraid will happen at any moment!
I do not fear the collapse of the fiat regime; I welcome liberation. I'll leave the worrying to you folks who fear human freedom.
+1
sounds like anarchy, which as ayn rand stated, is the worst of all, it's rule by thugs.
i'll stick to severely limited government thanks, where it's not ok for me to shoot my neighbours to get their stuff.
i liked the letter, i could relate, not to the guns though. that may scare me of such low knowledge about fire arms.
when moved into my first built house, at the end ran out of money. so i had to cook on a beautiful monarch woodcook stove just like this one. mind you a lot of food never got to the table, but tried. http://www.kountrylife.com/content/gal16.htm
i keep it shiny even after i got a real stove. heated by two wood stoves, cause the damn SOB father n law embezzled my money. but looking back good skills for brokeback mountain.
"You had a better chance of surviving if you lived in an apartment in the big city of if you lived in the farm that was further away from the front lines. It does not matter how good your house is built, it will not sustain few direct hits from the T-72 tank."
One has to ask why the T-72 are deployed in an area with realtively small populations of people.
Using a broad brush is nothing but trouble. No two wars are the same. I'd hardly state that one is safer in an apartment in Baghdad than in the countryside: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/05/wikileaks-us-army-iraq-attack
I'm not disputing what happened in Bosina (though the actual accounts in the MSM have tended to be sigificantly fabricated/propagandized).
I was in (the former) Yugoslavia in 91 and 92 when the fighting was going on. I also have a lot of (actual combat) military experience elesewhere. My guess is that in a real war in the USA that the rural areas here would not have as many problems as rural areas in Yugoslavia did. Yugoslavia had a high ratio of armored vehicles to space due to its small size and large military. In America (as it was in Yugoslavia) the key to survival will living in an area where your tribal group is in a clear majority - If not you are likely to be eliminated in short order. Also, the further away from the front lines (by which I mean areas where tribal areas border on each other) the better off you would be. I saw tribal warfare in Yugoslavia and I have no desire to see it here. By all means prepare for the worst case but don’t stir the tribal s**t because were all in the same boat and drilling holes in the hull wont do any good for anyone.
Why does Rawles have that comma in the middle of his name.
It gives him paws....
Christobevii3
http://www.thepowerhour.com/news/items_disappearfirst.htm
100 Items to Disappear First
1. Generators (Good ones cost dearly. Gas storage, risky. Noisy...target of thieves; maintenance etc.)
2. Water Filters/Purifiers
3. Portable Toilets
4. Seasoned Firewood. Wood takes about 6 - 12 months to become dried, for home uses.
5. Lamp Oil, Wicks, Lamps (First Choice: Buy CLEAR oil. If scarce, stockpile ANY!)
6. Coleman Fuel. Impossible to stockpile too much.
7. Guns, Ammunition, Pepper Spray, Knives, Clubs, Bats & Slingshots.
8. Hand-can openers, & hand egg beaters, whisks.
9. Honey/Syrups/white, brown sugar
10. Rice - Beans - Wheat
11. Vegetable Oil (for cooking) Without it food burns/must be boiled etc.,)
12. Charcoal, Lighter Fluid (Will become scarce suddenly)
13. Water Containers (Urgent Item to obtain.) Any size. Small: HARD CLEAR PLASTIC ONLY - note - food grade if for drinking.
14. Mini Heater head (Propane) (Without this item, propane won't heat a room.)
15. Grain Grinder (Non-electric)
16. Propane Cylinders (Urgent: Definite shortages will occur.
17. Survival Guide Book.
18. Mantles: Aladdin, Coleman, etc. (Without this item, longer-term lighting is difficult.)
19. Baby Supplies: Diapers/formula. ointments/aspirin, etc.
20. Washboards, Mop Bucket w/wringer (for Laundry)
21. Cookstoves (Propane, Coleman & Kerosene)
22. Vitamins
23. Propane Cylinder Handle-Holder (Urgent: Small canister use is dangerous without this item)
24. Feminine Hygiene/Haircare/Skin products.
25. Thermal underwear (Tops & Bottoms)
26. Bow saws, axes and hatchets, Wedges (also, honing oil)
27. Aluminum Foil Reg. & Heavy Duty (Great Cooking and Barter Item)
28. Gasoline Containers (Plastic & Metal)
29. Garbage Bags (Impossible To Have Too Many).
30. Toilet Paper, Kleenex, Paper Towels
31. Milk - Powdered & Condensed (Shake Liquid every 3 to 4 months)
32. Garden Seeds (Non-Hybrid) (A MUST)
33. Clothes pins/line/hangers (A MUST)
34. Coleman's Pump Repair Kit
35. Tuna Fish (in oil)
36. Fire Extinguishers (or..large box of Baking Soda in every room)
37. First aid kits
38. Batteries (all sizes...buy furthest-out for Expiration Dates)
39. Garlic, spices & vinegar, baking supplies
40. Big Dogs (and plenty of dog food)
41. Flour, yeast & salt
42. Matches. {"Strike Anywhere" preferred.) Boxed, wooden matches will go first
43. Writing paper/pads/pencils, solar calculators
44. Insulated ice chests (good for keeping items from freezing in Wintertime.)
45. Workboots, belts, Levis & durable shirts
46. Flashlights/LIGHTSTICKS & torches, "No. 76 Dietz" Lanterns
47. Journals, Diaries & Scrapbooks (jot down ideas, feelings, experience; Historic Times)
48. Garbage cans Plastic (great for storage, water, transporting - if with wheels)
49. Men's Hygiene: Shampoo, Toothbrush/paste, Mouthwash/floss, nail clippers, etc
50. Cast iron cookware (sturdy, efficient)
51. Fishing supplies/tools
52. Mosquito coils/repellent, sprays/creams
53. Duct Tape
54. Tarps/stakes/twine/nails/rope/spikes
55. Candles
56. Laundry Detergent (liquid)
57. Backpacks, Duffel Bags
58. Garden tools & supplies
59. Scissors, fabrics & sewing supplies
60. Canned Fruits, Veggies, Soups, stews, etc.
61. Bleach (plain, NOT scented: 4 to 6% sodium hypochlorite)
62. Canning supplies, (Jars/lids/wax)
63. Knives & Sharpening tools: files, stones, steel
64. Bicycles...Tires/tubes/pumps/chains, etc
65. Sleeping Bags & blankets/pillows/mats
66. Carbon Monoxide Alarm (battery powered)
67. Board Games, Cards, Dice
68. d-con Rat poison, MOUSE PRUFE II, Roach Killer
69. Mousetraps, Ant traps & cockroach magnets
70. Paper plates/cups/utensils (stock up, folks)
71. Baby wipes, oils, waterless & Antibacterial soap (saves a lot of water)
72. Rain gear, rubberized boots, etc.
73. Shaving supplies (razors & creams, talc, after shave)
74. Hand pumps & siphons (for water and for fuels)
75. Soysauce, vinegar, bullions/gravy/soupbase
76. Reading glasses
77. Chocolate/Cocoa/Tang/Punch (water enhancers)
78. "Survival-in-a-Can"
79. Woolen clothing, scarves/ear-muffs/mittens
80. Boy Scout Handbook, / also Leaders Catalog
81. Roll-on Window Insulation Kit (MANCO)
82. Graham crackers, saltines, pretzels, Trail mix/Jerky
83. Popcorn, Peanut Butter, Nuts
84. Socks, Underwear, T-shirts, etc. (extras)
85. Lumber (all types)
86. Wagons & carts (for transport to and from)
87. Cots & Inflatable mattress's
88. Gloves: Work/warming/gardening, etc.
89. Lantern Hangers
90. Screen Patches, glue, nails, screws,, nuts & bolts
91. Teas
92. Coffee
93. Cigarettes
94. Wine/Liquors (for bribes, medicinal, etc,)
95. Paraffin wax
96. Glue, nails, nuts, bolts, screws, etc.
97. Chewing gum/candies
98. Atomizers (for cooling/bathing)
99. Hats & cotton neckerchiefs
100. Goats/chickens
From a Sarajevo War Survivor:
Experiencing horrible things that can happen in a war - death of parents and
friends, hunger and malnutrition, endless freezing cold, fear, sniper attacks.
1. Stockpiling helps. but you never no how long trouble will last, so locate
near renewable food sources.
2. Living near a well with a manual pump is like being in Eden.
3. After awhile, even gold can lose its luster. But there is no luxury in war
quite like toilet paper. Its surplus value is greater than gold's.
4. If you had to go without one utility, lose electricity - it's the easiest to
do without (unless you're in a very nice climate with no need for heat.)
5. Canned foods are awesome, especially if their contents are tasty without
heating. One of the best things to stockpile is canned gravy - it makes a lot of
the dry unappetizing things you find to eat in war somewhat edible. Only needs
enough heat to "warm", not to cook. It's cheap too, especially if you buy it in
bulk.
6. Bring some books - escapist ones like romance or mysteries become more
valuable as the war continues. Sure, it's great to have a lot of survival
guides, but you'll figure most of that out on your own anyway - trust me, you'll
have a lot of time on your hands.
7. The feeling that you're human can fade pretty fast. I can't tell you how many
people I knew who would have traded a much needed meal for just a little bit of
toothpaste, rouge, soap or cologne. Not much point in fighting if you have to
lose your humanity. These things are morale-builders like nothing else.
8. Slow burning candles and matches, matches, matches
This is the type of information that is intrinsically valuable. Thank you for sharing.
I do not know if the tension in the US will result in random urban/suburban combat - it could. It would be a gang's paradise if the regional civilian gun ownership is low. Talk about shooting fish in a barrel.
I do believe that there will be shortages for sure. I hope that we do not come up critically short on basic foods, water, and natural gas. Some degree of shortage can be withstood. I am not sure how bad things will get though. The uncertainty is unnerving. Again, thank you for sharing your experience.
Gully your busy, getting ready for W H A T ?
my motto
save the planet kill yourself
A lot of us here would appreciate it if you'd live up to your motto. Soon, please.
M E A N
Doc will U help me please, cause i am dying here of too much fun.
Oh, I get it. Your motto isn't "Save the planet, kill myself" because you think you are worthy while others are not.
no I'm ready to go just hope I'm insainly high on a depressant like heroin , thank u very much
compassion and common sense ought to rule the day a bit. Dr Sandi please remove your unwholesome post. Telling an emotionally unstable person to off themselves is not at all funny, kind or neccessary.
A lot of us" may only include you. I for one am glad she has the balls to be crazy and still able to comment.
Christobevii3
http://lds.about.com/library/bl/faq/blcalculator.htm
Food Storage CalculatorUse the following calculator to figure the minimum food storage amounts for your family for one year. The amounts are based on the recommendations listed in the LDS Church's Essentials of Home Production and Storage booklet, see (LDS Distribution Center). These are only recommendations. You will need to determine what you should store for your family.
L fucking D S church essentials. go away, those dingbat people.
G U L LY G U LL Y GU L L Y G U LLY poor GULLYYYYYY are you paranoid, or a lo t of time to think and dream of this coming doom that you can embrace with prepardedness. i forgot what is your sign?
Rapunzel, our country has been taken from us, but most folk dont know and the crooks wont come and announce it. Facts on the ground are such that many of us see the calamity coming for a long time and have warned about it. ZeroHedge is basically about that subject .
The economy, the dollar and the system are on , no, past the edge, past the tipping point. There will be no recovery for another couple of years, mayhap longer.
In practical terms..jobs arent coming back, stores are closing and will keep on closing, sooner or later bankholiday will come, dollar wont be honored and the semi trucks quit coming. Meanwhile prices rise, a lot.Zimbabwe $
Police and firemen and more losing their jobs as states and counties are also in trouble. Crime will rise exponentially. Many will die from lack of services.
Then there s the gulf and the possibility of many folks dying a slow protracted death via coreexit.
Then theres the many who know they have been screwed and want revenge followed by martial law.
Then there the possible greater war beginning with Iran ending with China.
Then there is the small matter of the 26 thousand year cycle , our meeting with the Galactic plane. Not too many survive that. Again most folks dont know about that one either.
Here is why i dont worry too much.. We , the people should remember that being in these bodies is temporary. We were a living presence before we came to earth and will still be alive as a presence/point of awareness after.
I say this having been out of this body many times. It does not require religion but practice, knowledge and experience of the self.
Further, i like the other side much better. More joy, more love and freedom from the body. Being human is the least favorite job i ever had.
Gully Foyle
Thank you for sharing the URL . But hey fella , I like a bit of beef jerky now and again , and salted pork sustained our nations pioneers in the early days . "All food is pure if received with thanksgiving " . Would I let my family starve , or kill a owl , or dig and oyster , or trapnet some shrimp ?
now that is an interesting spin on christ2B, Christobevii3
guess i need to brush up on my roman numerals. hey, if i teach you how to ride your new bike will you give me some in depth education lessons and pronounce all the words for me, cause i learn best, h e a r i n g . it's all about the bike, grave stone for granny, here. i just realize laughing warms me up, a lot, what a great emotion to get moved by.
"Several tons of gold imported into the UAE by traders and investors turned out to be fake on closer inspection, resulting in millions of dirhams in losses and high levels of stress to the victims."
“The fake gold issue has affected many people. Some of the traders got heart attack, after our inspectors said there is no gold in the tonnes of imports"
http://www.ghanaweb.com/GhanaHomePage/NewsArchive/artikel.php?ID=188282
Interesting. Thanks for the link. The greedy are easily parted from their money.
The greedy are easily parted from their money.
How's that grocery store inflation working for you? Don't eat that 1.75 quart half gallon box of ice cream too fast, you'll get a headache, greedy boy.
@Red Neck
I believe gold will remain value neutral and the dollar will go in the ditch.
Actually, it (the dollar) already has. It has about 5% of its purchasing power since its inception.
What about solars? Should I dump the solars that Leo forced me to buy?
Won't hyperinflation ultimately lead to blackouts because juice is too expensive to produce and bitchez can't buy it anywayz. Might be a good time for ZH to own some solar panels to keep the server farm cool and connected.
So should I buy more? I'm confused.
Translatio Imperii -behold the ZHeeple.
PS. I have a question about my pennies too. Send me a private message so we can discuss, OK?
Relative to gold, $20 in 1913, the dollar lost 98.4% of its purchasing power at $1265 gold.
The dollar may be currently enjoying a repite relative to other fiat currencies,
with a possible price objective of 115, up a third from recent lows at 80.08...
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?%24usd
Gold/Silver will surge during deflation. As everything that we can live without loses value, a mechanism of value with finite supply and universally accepted exchange value will go nitro. It's planted into our DNA to understand that these two precious metals in particular have intrinsic value. Were you correct, and the free exchange value of Gold were to plunge, an automatic reaction (smart money) would with stunning immediacy correct the imbalance. Don't you get it? Fiat currency is a joke. it is based on trust and only an idiot or fool would put faith in such an agreement without massive hedging.
I love my bearded guy in the sky and really don't appreciate you mocking me for it.
I could poke fun at you for believing in your shit. But I won't because I honestly have no genuine interest in understanding your shit.
I'm a Catholic and am quite content with the material that my chosen? faith provides in the love and caring for myself department, up to and including that little bearded guy in the sky.
PHJTFRES
@ISEEIT: As a lifelong non-believer of any formal religion, I applaud your heartfelt but non-confrontational statement of personal faith. I wish the world had a few billion more like you. We might all have a better chance at survival.
Gold/Silver will surge during deflation...It's planted into our DNA to understand that these two precious metals in particular have intrinsic value.
In the future, before you post something that ridiculous, can you give me fair warning? I laughed so hard, I fell out of my chair, knocked my head against the wall and hyperventilated.
Now, I have returned to my desk wearing full scuba gear, so that my oxygen intake will be better regulated.
Please explain again how it has been implanted in our DNA to buy lots of gold while we're in a deflationary spiral?
Anything in the Scriptures to back that up?
It's called a rhetorical turn of phrase you moron. Your insulting-for-the-sake-of-provocation style posts do nothing for your economic musings. Be part of the solution, not part of the problem.
Swapthis, thank you very much
20 In the house of the wise are stores of choice food and oil,
but a foolish man devours all he has.
Genesis 2:12 (New International Version)12 (The gold of that land is good; aromatic resin [a] and onyx are also there.)
Genesis 13:2 (New International Version)2 Abram had become very wealthy in livestock and in silver and gold.
1 Timothy 6:10 (New International Version)10For the love of money is a root of all kinds of evil. Some people, eager for money, have wandered from the faith and pierced themselves with many griefs.
So, while the Bible teaches that gold, silver, food, oil (heating and cooking), livestock and family are the only true valuations of wealth, the Bible also states that above all, faith in God is most important. No where does the Bible mention the blessed dollar.
ahhh yes, the Bible. . . who wrote that again?
"new international version" - globalisation works, eh. . . the article you're posting under has "a message" for you (all).
Let's see. Some of the Bible was written by King Solomon, the richest man on Earth, some by Moses, some by Samuel and some by the Disciples among others. Even today, millions of people are reading the the writing of these ancient teachers, talk about longevity of concepts. Yes, NIV. These passages are the same as in my King James version, just a few more "shalls" and 'where unto." I would encourage you to read the Bible no matter what your religion (if any), you may be surprised at Its teachings and ultimately maybe part of the solution.
Ecclesiastes 1:9 (New International Version)9 What has been will be again,
Ecclesiastes 1:9 (King James Version)what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
9The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.
Greed, monetary greed has been around forever. Wall Street, the government and Bernie have invented nothing new.
Matthew 10:34
Luke 22:36
no swords, but I have a rifle and I have a pistol in a purse....does that count? : )
Be proficeint. Placement, bitches!!!!!!!!!!
May the peace of the Lord be always with you.
Even today, millions of people are reading the the writing of these ancient teachers, talk about longevity of concepts.
and "millions of people" are read the Koran - there's a point?
read your books, believe in your gods, meanwhile you all become cannon fodder for those who don't believe in anything but their inherent rights to your lives.
at least y'all will have "heavens" right?
and "millions of people" are reading the Qur'an - there's a point?
read your books, believe in your gods, meanwhile you all become cannon fodder for those who don't believe in anything but their inherent rights to your lives.
at least y'all will have "heavens" right?
Dear Janice,
Every so often the folks who bring you 'the Holy Word' re-write it for your convience. You know...like it was against Christian Law to charge or pay interest and then they changed that part because it was not convienent in the 1600's. As for paper money in the old days, the printing press had not been invented...had it been, likely the words 'go forth and invest mightly' might have been there in 'holy print' for your convience. Oh and lets not forget that some 650 pages of the 1300 are 'lost somewhere' in Italy, wonder what they say. The bible also states 'thou shall have no other God before me' so where does all this gold and silver fit into that? And, what about worshipping graven objects, you know those gold statues and such. Funny, I thought that "the only true valuation of wealth" was in your heart and soul, not your pocketbook.
To many of the thieves who have stollen our nation and this world hid and hide behind the 'Holy Word' of one kind or other, and the ill informed cower or kill defending that same ignorance.
Since when did God seek to reward the wealthy, well, thank God for that New International Version! We are saved!
Read the article again please. Right wing, left wing, no wing, Christian, Islam, Buddist, Jew, whatever...we are all manuliplated because we are to lazy to seek the real truths when it is so easy to just blame it on the otherside of our way of convinced thinking.
Red Neck, you're wearing scuba gear? right now?
hot.
don't be afraid of a healthy dose of sarcasm guys. . . even with all your prep, your bikes & charcoal & gold & ammo - you'll die one day, as will we all. . .
a little laughter at the absurdity of existence helps in digestion of the truths.
Too true CA. And here is is an anecdotal word to add to your post.
No scriptures, ever, have any of the major players (avaatars, sons/daughters of god/prophets et. al.) laughing.
Jesus never laughed in the bible, neither Krishna in the Gita, neither the Prophet in the Quran. Hmmmmmmm...... and I know this on very good authority.
Interesting, eh? They only smile, usually mysteriously, is all!
:-)
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
I love my bearded guy in the sky
i just feel sorry for you, my little funny and very happy friend.
Me too long locks, and the cognoscenti know where he lives (North Pole) and in which direction the high priests of the Temple faced (North). I suspect the reindeer stuff was a more recent addition though...
I think the obsession with gold is a prime example of mass delusion on a global scale. There might become a time when everyone is killing everyone else for it, but not before a deflationary buzzsaw chops it below $1000.
Now there's some typical statist thinking. Most goldbugs I know believe that gold is sound money. They believe that gold and silver currency has in the past and will again in the future protect the wealth of rich and poor alike. When people are able to save sound money and have the value of their savings grow rather than see their wealth frittered away through stock market gambles and inflation they will be secure in a way that no government security net can provide.
Savings of sound money will underwrite investment in the economy in a rational and sustainable way rather than with the fits and starts of a bubble economy which is the only way a fiat regime can function.
But for some reason, when you think of gold, you do not think of folks of all stripes protecting their wealth for themselves and their children. No, such security and diversity is beyond the statist's mind, be he liberal or conservative. If gold should again be prized for the stabilizing effect it has on economies and nations apparently the only image that comes into your mind is "everyone killing everyone else for it."
But of course, I'm just an uncompassionate, racist tea bagger, so what do I know? Maybe the collectivist wet dream of "everybody killing everybody else," (think WWI to OEF/OIF inclusive) is the way to go for the good of mankind. So let's keep cheering on our War Presidents and the Federal Reserve which makes all that compasionate killing possible.
Hey Gilligan...
If the professor can build you a iMac and create WiFi access, why the hell can't he get you off that island?
Red Neck Repugnicant
Ginger, Maryanne, and (shrug) Mrs.Howell.
C'mon he had no competition on those dark lonely nights.
Any serious threat to his harem was ALWAYS rescued or driven off the island.
Guy was a fucking genius.
Hey Gilligan...
If the professor can build you a iMac and create WiFi access, why the hell can't he get you off that island?
And you wonder why I don't want to be tied up with you in a "safety net?"
Price of gold in 2000: 263.80. Appreciation to date: 360%.
Nasdaq in 2000: 5048. Depreciation to date: 57%.
Nuff Said.
No. That's not quite enough.
You're cherry-picking your decades.
When you play roulette and the little ball lands on black 100 times in a row, do you play red or black on the next spin?
The past doesn't matter, except to your girlfriend.
How is looking at the best asset class of the past 10 years "cherry-picking"?
Which decade would you consider more pertinent, the last 10 years, or some other decade you pick at random which has no relationship to our current ponzi realities?
How do you suppose the United States will ever meet it's financial obligations, other than by steady (if we're lucky) devaluation of the currency?
"Technology"? "Green Jobs"? Magic Beans?
(and by the way, if you're saying you should bet on red on the 101st spin, why wouldn't you have started doing so after it landed on black, say,... 10 times in a row? When would you have stopped betting on red? Would you have enough money left to even make it to the 101st spin? Here's a tip - if you're ever at a Roulette table and it lands on black 100 times in a row, keep betting on black, because your clearly dealing with something other than random chance)
Sorry, Rusty. I respectfully disagree. When picking stocks, bonds, gold or roulette colors, the past means very little.
That ball has the same 50/50 chance of landing on either color, despite where it landed 10,000 times before. That "score board" sticking up from the roulette wheel which shows colors and numbers is designed to lure people to play the game. People see that the ball hit red four times in a row, so they jump up to the table and bet that it's time for black. In truth, past results have absolutely no influence on future colors/numbers. But the illusion that you have an edge on the future got another player to step up to the table with his wallet - just as designed.
The point I was making is that the price of gold over the past decade has absolutely no influence on the next decade, much like a roulette ball bouncing around.
If you could accurately measure the future by measuring the past, everyone would be billionaires. Gold, stocks, bonds or roulette....the past doesn't matter.
What a load of dribble. Seriously dude, first you insult peoples intelligence then you write this crap. Did you even read this before posting? And a hint on your previous posts, the grammar and spelling are appalling.
Now be a nice inbred red neck and either be constructive or fuck off.
...you insult peoples intelligence...
Now there is some knee-buckling irony, you moron! You don't know how to use an apostrophe, and yet you're commenting on my grammar. You're missing an apostrophe - peoples' intelligence. The rules for plural possessive are taught in middle school.
Grammar and spelling aside, my posts are not dribble. All you need to do is provide a reasonable argument why someone should buy an asset based on a ten year chart, and I'll humbly admit my error.
As soon as you turn to ten year charts to make your investment decisions, you might as well play roulette instead.
just to correct you a little. not every school district uses middle school. mine didn't, you can have grade, junior high and senior high school. so there's my excuse for not knowing plual possessive never went t o middle school.
All you need to do is provide a reasonable argument why someone should buy an asset based on a ten year chart, and I'll humbly admit my error.
Please review the 5,000 year chart and admit your error forthwith.
You might be a troll if:
1) Your junk/posting ratio is above 3
2) You mock, ridicule, attack, while never offer meaningful dialog
3) You are blatantly partisan in your postings
4) You single out a conservative leaning MSM news outlet to mock (and not others).
5) Your username mocks working people
6) Your username mocks a particular political party.
7) You attack commenters who suggest all is not rosy
8) You attack those who suggests prudence dictates some degree of self reliance
9) You defend the status quo.
10) You live in your mom's basement.
you must have failed middle school then, you stupid motherfucker.
It's PEOPLE'S. People is already plural.
From Dictionary.com:
The formation of the possessive is regular; the singular is people's and the plural is peoples'.
That must be horribly embarrassing for you...
Perhaps you should take that middle finger of yours and plug the bullet hole I just shot through your frontal cortex.
http://www.cafepress.com/+dead_smiley_35_button,179128361
It was apparent that the original post was making reference to me insulting multiple groups of people: gold bugs, followers of organized religion, bunker dwellers, etc.
Back on grammar patrol I see. Smart move, keeps you out of deeper trouble.
If you could accurately measure the future by measuring the past, everyone would be billionaires. Gold, stocks, bonds or roulette....the past doesn't matter.
When you are hungry, do you go get a sandwich from the refrigerator in your kitchen which has reliably supplied food to you in the past or do you instead look for a snack in the washing machine or under the porch because you believe that the past is no guide to the future?
When you drive to work, do you take one of several known, available routes depending on prevailing conditions or do you drive aimlessly about each morning looking for your place of employment?
The vast majority of the things that you do in your life will be repetitious acts which fulfill certain needs reliably based on past experience.
That's not to say that one should not be prepared to fly by the seat of one's pants on occasion. Nevertheless, David Hume was full of crap.
or do you instead look for a snack in the washing machine or under the porch because you believe that the past is no guide to the future?
yeah, so what if i have, fatty.
Thank you for the reply, rapunzel. Looks like the sheep in Fox's clothing has stopped speaking to me.
so polite, davey. have to think a little on your reply. right back @ you, N I C E playlist.
To Red Neck
1. First you want to outlaw the past? That way all the criminals that robbed everyone blind can have a clean, fresh slate to continue with the daylight robbery? Are you an idiot, the past matters ! It may not provide a clear path to the future, but you will have learned whether the person (people) you are dealing with are honest or not. YOU CAN BET WITH NEAR CERTAINTY THAT THE GUY THAT WAS DISHONEST YESTERDAY, WILL BE DISHONEST TOMORROW. THE POLITICIAN THAT LIED TO YOU YESTERDAY WILL MOST CERTAINLY LIE TO YOU TOMORROW !
2. As already pointed out- 100 times on black means get the hell out of that casino. Your example of probability is lousy !
3. I am guessing it was unintended, but roulette, is indeed good parallel to the stock and bond market. You have a 50/50 chance of getting your capital back, but a 100% likelihood of getting skimmed on the transaction.
First you want to outlaw the past? That way all the criminals that robbed everyone blind can have a clean, fresh slate to continue with the daylight robbery?
Where on Earth did you get that impression? You're arguing a point that was never made. Ever.
As already pointed out- 100 times on black means get the hell out of that casino.
You're completely missing the point- you haven't seen the ball since kickoff, and you're facing the wrong direction with your pants down. You might as well talk about the weight of the ball or the diameter of the wheel.
Your example of probability is lousy !
No. Your reading comprehension skills are lousy, especially since I repeated my point several times. The point was directed at the erroneous correlation between past/future with regard to investments, not probability. A chart that looks great for the past 10 years means nothing for the next 10.
Why don't you just cut to the chase and begin a chant of "Yes, we can!"
But Red, sweetie. You forgot to mention the electromagnets embedded in the base of the wheel. You're not shilling for the pesky Indian casino lobby are you? Hmmm?
@#522629
"the past doesn't matter. "
If you really believed that, you would never be able to get out of bed in the morning.
past means very little" haha, painted into a corner and say that!
The best asset class of the last 30 years was zero coupon bonds, which outperformed S&P500 four times and gold more than ten times.
Gold bugs posted here with a straight face gold held its value 6000 years.
So what?!
Gambler's fallacy or inverse Gambler's fallacy shows nothing beyond gamblers ruin for those trying to predict the future...
"gold held its value 6000 years.
So what?!"
Great point.
You must have been on the high school forensics team.
Don't you like gold? Then you have other choices like toilette paper. If you had big enough free storage place for it, in lets say 2000 or 1990 and bought it on sale, you would've made on it few hundred % already. Some people prefer more portable items but maybe you have some better ideas for us.
@Red Neck
You're cracking me up, bitch!
"I think the obsession with gold is a prime example of mass delusion on a global scale. There might become a time when everyone is killing everyone else for it..."
1) Gold is real money...is and has been for thousands of years. so in as much as mankind has always been obsessed with the accumulation of wealth ur point is valid.
2) the time when man kills another in attempts to posses his wealth has never ended. so, in as much as this appears to be a congenital defect of human kind ur point is valid.
there is nothing delusional about acccumulating 1 of only 2 froms of real money...
The trouble is that people have been pushed to bet not on somewhat predictable market actions but on what the Fed and the politicians will do.
The Fed must prevent widespread deflation or the government will be forced to default on its debt and abdicate. That is in the near term. If the Fed and the government fail to institute some serious programs to inflate asset prices (particularly real estate because of its importance to municipal balance sheets), then after November, many states will collapse.
Long-term deflationists, of whom Mish Shedlock is the best-known, also believe (and advocate) that the government will dismantle itself and that the Fed and Washington will be unable to create policy that can remove the blocks from inflation.
The Fed must also inflate, but without destroying the currency and losing support from foreign governments. If if fails to thread the needle, the entire American system comes down.
The best case for the Fed and the US government is extreme stagflation - the 70s redux. Part of what controlled the inflation during the 70s was the growth of globalization - the US was able to start exporting its dollars in greater amounts than ever before.
Now, the US has already saturated the world with dollars. There aren't any more escape valves. This inflation will have to be more severe.
I'll make a bold prediction.
The US will remove regulations like Sarb-Ox, introduce tax credits for "startups," create a vast expansion to the SBA, and continue relatively small scale aid programs to the states. This will generate another IPO bubble to coincide with Facebook's offering.
Note that venture capital deals have been expanding at an exponential rate in recent years, despite a lack of profitable exits. (http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/alternatives/Articles/2651318/Will-Something-Turn-Up.html?p=1)
They may know something that we don't know. After all, as mentioned in the article, the endowments of Harvard, Yale, and other Ivy League institutions are tied up in some of these funds. All it takes are a few phone calls to open up the flood gates again.
This will enable Obama to dispel ideas that he is "anti-business," and possibly provide him with political cover to introduce more significant public employment programs.
The government may also have to step in to abrogate FICO scores and other regulatory apparatuses that prevent deadbeats from taking on new loans. I would introduce such a program as "morning in America again."
The over-riding goal will be to rehabilitate Washington's image, take the focus off of banking criminality, jack up wage rates, and create many bubbles simultaneously.
This will catch Republicans off guard by 2012. Obama can extend the tax cuts, and basically borrow Republican supply-side ideology for his own purposes.
Policy makers have more flexibility than is commonly understood. They are dictators. They can do anything with the laws. They don't play by rules. It will fail, ultimately, but not before one last show of "strength."
I like the basic idea of your prediction, we will need a lot of private sector stimulus, but I don't think that Obama will survive for a 2nd term. I think these types of things are what the 'new' Born-Again-Conservative Republicrats will come up with under a Gingrich/Romney ticket. They will try to shift a lot of the burden for feeding and clothing the growing underclass to the 1000 points of light type programs through faith based initiatives which will help activate the Repub base even though on the other hand they will be raising some taxes, probably a 'temp vat' [that doesn't go away] or even some sort of Bond Drive, but all of it will be to fleece the middle class as always and if we do not find something to market to the world besides fiat currency, we will surely pay the piper with times this country is neither prepared for, or perhaps even able to survive. We have lost our light, lost our way and too few even understand the trap we are in.
King David Petraeus 2012:
Money is ammunition.
I mean, hell, my prediction there was a worst case scenario. I want the house to burn the fuck down.
Unless the Republicans impeach Obama, they will have to deal with him until 2012. That's an eternity. That's why I think Obama's team will take a supply-side approach to head off the Republicans.
After all, that's what Summers and co. are all about.
If Obama becomes Clinton 2.0, he can ignite a new inflation-driven bubble. Will it kill the dollar? Sure, probably. But they'll be out of office by that time, unless a foreign policy miscalculation or some other major error leads to hyperinflation too early.
One issue that the world faces is that the fiat economies must debase simultaneously. If they QE out of step, it causes chaos.
"The Fed must prevent widespread deflation or the government will be forced to default on its debt and abdicate"
The US federal government will never "default" on its debt, unless it chooses to do so for some heretofore unknown political reason. The federal government has no material debt load denominated in any currency other than the USD, of which it is the monopolist producer. As a result, the US federal government does not default in the way of a Greece or a Spain, which have debts denominated in currencies over which they do not control.
What's more, those waiting with bated breath for a failed treasury auction are going to be sorely dissapointed. There will never be a failed treasury auction, because treasury auctions are really a coordinated process whereby the Fed mops up excess reserves that are generated via the government's deficit spending.
If you want to understand our future, all you have to do is look 12 hours forward in time, i.e. to Japan.
The US federal government will never "default" on its debt,
There will never be a failed treasury auction
We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis.
Never trust predictive statements that rely on never...
never have.
never will
Don't listen to Chemba. He pours Lloyd's coffee every morning and thinks he's a managing director for The Squid.
Right. You would not want to listen to analytically based arguments from a Goldman Sachs MD; rather, you are better off listening to juvenile comments from unemployed mortgage brokers and pharmaceutical salesmen.
I know you have attention problems (we all know that Goldman reduced its hiring standards after the IPO).
"If you want to understand our future, all you have to do is look 12 hours forward in time, i.e. to Japan."
One of these countries is not like the other one... argument by analogy is unconvincing.
Japan has no debt denominated in any currency other than its own, just like the USA, and unlike Greece, Hungary, Spain and Weimar Germany.
When you talk about "failed treasury auctions" and the USA "defaulting on its debt" (for any reason other than political), you demonstrate a lack of understanding of our monetary system.
I was hired before the IPO.
Lloyd gets his own coffee, as does everyone else at Goldman Sachs.
They're monetizing the debt right now, in case you never caught the memo.
Maybe you should read my comment again?
A friend got me signed up for an email newsletter by a guy named Rick Weissman. He says some pretty interesting things. One of his theses, of late, has been that what the Fed is trying to do is repeat what the Fed did back in the late 1940's when the U.S. had built up a massive debt due to the Marked Deck and WWII. Here's a brief quote:
Freddy, great reads, thanks. Good post too. I looked this up recently, and Debt/GDP in '46 was, like 70%. This before Marshall Plan sent all of that money Eastward to Old Europe to rebuild them, again. Here ya go:
on Sat, 08/14/2010 - 17:35
#521968
But, you know, the current regime has said that growth is "unsustainable", so the method you reference, well, they call "No Joy" on it.
Ongoing structural wrecking crew in a race with time.
- Ned
Redneck, what is your delusion? Darwinian evolution? Did I guess right?
Right on target with that one Captain....
@Red Neck
That's the best goddamn one-liner I've read today!