This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Guest Post: Media And Political Hysteria Over Yemen Hides A Deeper Strategic Matrix of Long-Term Importance

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by OilPrice.com

US and Western European political leaders have begun to focus on Yemen as a source of projected instability and as a haven for jihadist terrorism against the West.

This simplistic and overly narrow view has largely been a reaction to media reporting of the links of alleged (and unsuccessful) Nigerian-born terrorist bomber, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, to a radical Yemeni group, and to intense ongoing fighting between insurgents and Yemeni and Saudi government forces on the Yemen-Saudi border.

The reality is far more complex and far-reaching.

The situation has a long history which has been ignored — or which has lacked priority — as far as Western intelligence services have been concerned. The current reaction has been one in which the US and UK leaderships, in particular, have merely elected to follow the media outrage over the alleged links between Abdulmutallab and  “al-Qaida” training camps in Yemen. However, there is a contextual and vitally-linked pattern of activities and competition which engages, among others, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states, Russia, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland, Yemen, Djibouti, Libya, and others.

Western states and the great Asian trading states are essentially unable, or unwilling, to enter comprehensively into the matrix, and have elected, almost as a distraction, to focus on current, specific factors, such as the “presence of al-Qaida” in Yemen. And even in that regard, there is a clear inability of the US, or UK, for example, to surgically deal even with the narrow problem which they have identified as being “terrorist training” in Yemen.

This overall complex is, moreover, intrinsically linked to the longer-term security and control of the Red Sea/Suez Canal sea lanes which are critical to global trade.

Within just the Yemen Republic context, to a significant extent, the challenges now facing Pres. ‘Ali ‘Abdullah Saleh are a culmination of issues, which center around:

(i)  Pres. Saleh’s longstanding corruption, and in particular his links with Somalian and Puntland leaders to the significant detriment of long-term Red Sea security and Western (and other) interests;

(ii)  Iran’s active engagement in financing Shi’a and Sunni jihadist and rebel activities in Yemen and along its border inside Saudi Arabia; and
(iii) The shared decision by Yemeni, Saudi, and Egyptian leaders (supported by Libya) to isolate the Republic of Somaliland. This situation has favored the ongoing corrupt business activities of Pres. Saleh and his Puntland Somalian friend, Col. Abdullahi Yussuf Ahmed, former President of both the self-proclaimed Puntland region (which he “founded” as a quasi-independent state within Somalia) and of Somalia itself.

Linked with all of this is the question of the chronic instability in the recently-created state of Eritrea. Eritrea is supported by Egypt, Israel, and some Arab states, for different motives, including Egypt’s desire to use Eritrea to constrain and contain Ethiopia, which Egypt sees as a potential regional threat (because of Ethiopia’s control of the headwaters of the Blue Nile, which is Egypt’s lifeline). Eritrean Pres. Isayas Afewerke, already locked into a power struggle with Ethiopia and particularly with Ethiopian Prime Minister (and Isayas’ former ally) Meles Zenawi, has been happy to work with Libyan leader Mu’ammar al-Qadhafi to fund a range of terrorist activities against Ethiopia, potentially leading to a renewal in 2010 of conventional war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. The forthcoming and pivotal May 2010 Ethiopian Parliamentary elections may be a trigger point for revived Eritrean conflict with Ethiopia, and Eritrea has already — in January 2010 — begun brief military incursions into Ethiopia and has been transporting clandestine supplies of weapons and explosives into the heart of Ethiopia, even into the capital, Addis Ababa, for use by anti-government forces sponsored by Eritrea.

That is part of the current context to be borne in mind when looking at Yemen itself, and the position of Yemen Pres. Saleh.

The Western media gained a hint of Pres. Saleh’s longstanding linkage with Puntland when, during Yussuf’s Presidency of Somalia in November 2008, a Yemeni ship captured by pirates was suddenly freed without ransom being paid. Significantly, most of the pirates operating off the Horn of Africa are from Puntland, and, following the collapse of Somalia into civil war, the Somalian fishing fleet fled the Somalia coast for safe-haven in Yemen. There, however, it was impounded by Pres. Saleh. Pres. Saleh’s son, and the son of former Somalian/Puntland Pres. Yussuf, now jointly own and run that fleet of fishing vessels, among their other joint enterprises.

Former Pres. Yussuf — who, as “President” of Puntland, conducted frequent raids and terrorist operations against the neighboring Republic of Somaliland — is now a guest of Pres. Saleh, living in exile in Yemen. Not surprisingly, Yemen has shown considerable solidarity with Egypt in maintaining both an Arab League and African Union boycott on trade with Somaliland, ending millennia of cross-Red Sea trade in hides and other materials, and in the recognition of Somaliland as the sovereign entity which historical and legal precedence shows it to be.

But in the overall situation, at its heart, Egypt, Saudi Arabia (and the Persian Gulf emirates, and Iran are engaged in an attempt to dominate the Red Sea, which is vital in various ways and in varying degrees to their national survival. Much of the trade viability of the Persian Gulf is linked with the ability to utilize the Red Sea/Suez SLOC.

Within the context of this competition between the Arabian Peninsula states and Iran over the Red Sea is the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia (and now Yemen) for control of much of the Arabian Peninsula itself, as outlined in the November 17, 2009, report by Yossef Bodansky on Iranian involvement in the declaration by Saudi Shi’a clerics of the “Republic of Eastern Arabia”. And also engaged in this competition is Israel, itself a Red Sea and Indian Ocean state by virtue of its sea frontage on the Gulf of Aqaba and its projection of naval power into the Indian Ocean.

Iran has long been a major sponsor of Islamist insurgent and tribal groups in Somalia, regardless of whether these groups have been Sunni or Shi’a Muslims. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has attempted to compete for regional influence in the Horn by funding a massive proselytization of Ethiopians, to increase the numbers of Muslims over the historically Orthodox Christians there, in stark disavowal of the Prophet Mohammed’s strict injunction that Ethiopians should not be attacked or forced to convert to Islam because of the refuge and respect which an Ethiopian king — the King of Axum — had given in 614 CE to some of Mohammed’s followers and to one of his wives when they were being pursued by Mohammed’s enemies.

Significantly, and to varying degrees, Iran, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia have allowed and even encouraged instability and division to occur along the Red Sea littoral — with regard to Eritrea, Yemen, and Sudan — in order to gain strategic leverage. Libya, long a Red Sea power aspirant (in order to gain leverage at Egypt’s rear, and over its Red Sea/Suez Canal seaway), has also pumped money and weapons into the Red Sea disputes, particularly in support of Eritrea and Somali elements opposed to Ethiopia. Libya, of course, demonstrated its ability to disrupt Red Sea/Suez sea traffic — to the massive detriment of Egypt and the trading states — when it used the mine-laying ship, Ghat, to drop floating mines in the Red Sea in 1984.

In the midst of all of this, Ethiopia is moving toward parliamentary elections in May 2010, and Eritrea and its allies (Egypt, Libya, and others) have been stepping up military pressure on the Ethiopian border, and even shipping weapons and explosives clandestinely into Addis Ababa, the Ethiopian capital. It is not inconceivable that a significant military clash could occur between Ethiopia and Eritrea before the May 2010 Ethiopian elections.

Thus, it is not just Yemen, or even the Arabian Peninsula, which is under severe pressure from unrest and insurgency, but also the entire Horn of Africa, including Somalia, Somaliland (which has been able to hold the line thus far), Eritrea, and Sudan. And with this, the entire security of the Red Sea/Suez sea lines of communications (SLOCs), so vital to Asian, European, and Australasian trade, is also under threat.

What is also of significance in this is the fact that the Republic of Somaliland — one of the few areas of stability in the region — is not yet recognized by the international community even though it meets all of the legitimate criteria of sovereignty as determined by the African Union (AU) and the United Nations (UN). This situation is very much in the hands of Egypt, which — because of its fears over Ethiopia and the fact that Somaliland is a key transit access for Ethiopian trade — has refused to allow the AU or the Arab League to recognize Somaliland’s sovereignty, and the UN will not recognize a state until the regional body (in this case the AU) first recognizes it.

Eritrea’s historical source of revenue has been as a trading and entrepôt for Ethiopian imports and exports, and this was a natural rôle for it when it was a province of Ethiopia [for years Eritrea was known within the Ethiopian Empire as the Bar Negus: the Kingdom of the Sea. When Eritrea, independent from Ethiopia after the collapse of the Dergue in 1991, attempted to blackmail Ethiopia into accepting the new Eritrean currency, the nakfa (introduced November 1997), which was not internationally tradable, as payment for Ethiopian coffee for onward export — Eritrea, as a trader, was the fourth biggest coffee exporter in the world, based on through shipment of Ethiopian coffee — Ethiopia ceased trading through Eritrea.

Eritrean leader Isayas had not bargained on Ethiopia, landlocked following the loss of Eritrea, being able to trade through routes other than the Eritrean Red Sea port of Massawa and other lesser ports, and found Eritrea bankrupt when Ethiopia began trade through Djibouti, and subsequently Somaliland. Eritrea, almost overnight, became bankrupt, and Isayas faced the need to distract an increasingly hostile population.

This led to significant control of the Eritrean population (which continues today), and to the 1998-99 Eritrea-Ethiopia war, which, when concluded, failed to bring about a resumption of Ethiopian trade through Eritrean ports, leading to the continuing situation of desperation in Eritrea, and the likelihood of yet another conflict.

The situation is ultimately detrimental to Egypt, given that the isolation of Ethiopia (and Somaliland) actually contributes to the insolvency of Eritrea, which Egypt (and others) have been using as a buffer to keep Ethiopia landlocked. The potential threat to Egypt’s Nile waters from Ethiopia is, in fact, not addressed by keeping Ethiopia landlocked, and nor is Egypt’s absolute strategic need for a stable Red Sea SLOC (leading to and from the Suez Canal) better guarded by having Ethiopia kept landlocked.

Within all of this, the US, and many other NATO states, along with Japan, Australia, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and others, have committed major naval forces to the Red Sea/Horn of Africa region of the Indian Ocean in an attempt to suppress regional piracy, all of which (virtually) comes from Puntland and is supported by former Puntland/Somalia Pres. Yussuf, who is now a guest of Yemen Pres. Saleh. At no point have the NATO powers thought of addressing the piracy issue by tackling Yussuf and Saleh head-on, or through direct punitive attacks on the Puntland piracy havens.

Moreover, the US and the NATO states — as well as the other maritime powers now projecting naval force into the Indian Ocean off the Horn of Africa — have neither the resources nor will to deal decisively with the pirates in their land havens, the villages of Puntland, or with the Iranian- and salafist-backed insurgencies now underway on the Arabian Peninsula. Only France, with a significant history of sustaining forces in the region (particularly Djibouti) has shown some real independence of action.

Thus, the advantage, strategically, remains with Iran, which is destabilizing the area through proxy forces. Much is being made of the so-called “al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula” (AQAP), which claimed responsibility for the attempted bombing by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab on December 25, 2009, of US Northwest Airlines Flight 253 from Amsterdam to Detroit.

Certainly, there is a link between Yemen — now the modern state encompassing the ancestral home of al-Qaida founder Osama bin Laden’s family — and the global al-Qaida phenomenon. The reality, however, is that al-Qaida, and bin Laden, although ostensibly salafist Sunnis, have long had distinct Iranian connections. Moreover, there is more than one group in Yemen and Saudi Arabia claiming to be part of al-Qaida. The Western fixation with categorizing and naming amorphous and transitory groups as though they were permanent and organized fixtures, based on their claims, leads to attempts to see the regional situation in black and white terms.

Within the Yemeni context, as well, is the continued rivalry between north and south, between the factions which once gravitated toward the control of Sana’a (and the former Yemen Arab Republic), and those which once gravitated toward the control of Aden and the old Arabian Sea (Gulf of Aden) sultanates.  There were, in fact, nine sultanates which signed protectorate agreements with the United Kingdom in the early 20th Century to form the British Aden Protectorate, and, after several geopolitical transitions, and with the departure of the British from Aden, the area became the People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY: South Yemen). The PDRY became a major Soviet proxy state, and attempted to project power against Saudi Arabia, and the Sultanate of Oman.

Then, the unified group under PDRY and Soviet control was the Popular Front for the Liberation of Oman and the Arab Gulf (PFLOAG), which conducted a major insurgency across the Omani border, into the Dhofar region, against the old Sultan of Muscat & Oman, Sultan Sa’id. This led to a major Cold War confrontation, with the British backing of Sultan Qaboos bin Sa’id al-Said, who had overthrown his father. This was a protracted insurgency which Oman won. Significantly, Oman largely embraces a distinct form of Islam, the Khariji sect, which rejected both Sunni and Shi’ite formulas; the Ibadi branch of the Kharijites became (in the Prophet Mohammed’s lifetime) Oman’s official religion, making it the only Kharijite country in Islam.

The geopolitical importance of Oman should not be overlooked, despite the fact that the country and the Sultan have been quiet during the current crises: Oman controls the southern shore of the Strait of Hormuz and a vital part of the Arabian Sea coastline.

It is not insignificant that the new — and cautious — Iranian-Russian alliance is jointly and severally interested in projecting power deep into the Indian Ocean and through the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa. Russia’s historical involvement (as the USSR) in the PDRY (and to a lesser extent the YAR), and in Somalia have not been forgotten. Neither has Iran’s military involvement during the 1970s in support of Oman against the PDRY — the Shah and Sultan Qaboos cooperated closely — been forgotten in Tehran. Further, the historical links across the Strait of Hormuz are profound: Baluchistan, now divided between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, was once Omani territory.

These are all links which are of profound significance, and yet they are unrecognized by current analysts who insist on dividing consideration of conflict and political phenomena along the lines of modern nation-state boundaries.

Iran’s determination to proceed with its proxy drive into the Arabian Peninsula, the Horn of Africa, and the Red Sea has been compounded by the declining ability and will of the US to sustain its position in the region, and by the strength and cooperation of the new alliance with Russia. Clearly, Russia and Iran remain cautious of each other, but have mutual objectives at this point, and a history of seeking influence over the Arabian Peninsula and Red Sea/Horn.

As Holy Roman Emperor Charles V said of the French King, Francis I, in the 16th Century: “My cousin and I are in complete agreement: we both want Milan.”

Clearly, the Yemen/Red Sea/Horn of Africa/Arabian Peninsula situation cannot be divorced from the Northern Tier — the area including Iraq, Iran, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and so on. Attempts by Western media and policymakers to treat the Yemen situation as separate, and a “new theater”, once again ignore the complex integration and internally competitive dynamic of the entire region. Bearing in mind the Iranian southward projection, and Pakistan’s rôle as a key littoral maritime player in the Arabian Sea (and key partner in the US-dominated Combined Naval Task Forces (CTF) 151, the joint statement issued by the Iranian, Afghanistan, and Pakistan governments on January 16, 2010, was instructive. It said that, as the Xinhua news agency report of that date noted, “Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan affirm that the three countries bear a shared and common responsibility for security and stability in the region, and reaffirmed the commitment to playing their due rôle in the reconstruction of Afghanistan.”

Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi said on January 16, 2010, that Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan were the most important neighbors for establishing peace and stability in Afghanistan, adding that peace in Afghanistan meant peace in the region. Minister Qureshi said that the Islamabad trilateral meeting decided to move forward in line with the tripartite summit in Tehran in 2009 to adopt regional approach to find out solution to problems in the region. He said that intelligence chiefs of the three countries will also meet in Tehran soon to discuss cooperation in intelligence sharing.

All of this is reflective of the changing fortunes of the great powers in the region. Power vacuums, or perceived vacuums, lead to surges by other aspirant powers. That is what is now happening in what this writer has termed “the North-West Quadrant of the Indian Ocean”, which includes the Persian Gulf, the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Aden, and the Red Sea/Gulf of Aqaba/Suez.  Additionally, all the action in this neighborhood has a hugely important global impact on the transportation of oil and gas and the VLCC tankers that carry the assets. 

There is a great deal of shuffling which is reminiscent of the beginning of the 1960s, and the British withdrawal orchestrated by socialist Prime Minister Harold Wilson, a process which led to the Soviet surge into South Yemen and the Horn of Africa. The local players have no option but to try to rebuild their security in the knowledge that their superpower allies — in this case, the US — may not offer security support into the future.

First published at: http://www.oilprice.com/article-media-and-political-hysteria-over-yemen-hides-broader-deeper-strategic-matrix-of-long-term-importance.html

This article was written by Gregory R. Copley for the OilPrice.com Free Market Intelligence Report which focuses on Big Picture Geopolitical analysis, Investment Trend Spotting, Risk management and “Real News.” To find out more visit: http://www.oilprice.com/Market-Intelligence-Report.php

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 21:43 | Link to Comment strike for retu...
strike for return to reality's picture

We should never forget who the real enemies are.

www.ae911truth.org

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:40 | Link to Comment Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

You are so right - get the banksters!

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 03:32 | Link to Comment order6102
order6102's picture

Oh yes. as documented in movie Avatar http://www.avatarmovie.com/ everything was done by blue faced army of Smurfs, lead by Smurfette as act of retaliation for destruction of Holy Tree.. 

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 21:51 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

The timing of the diplo visits to the UAE both groveling for capital during the bank meltdown and the subsequent refusal of the UAE to partake in the GCC over the location of the central bank play right into the thesis.

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 21:56 | Link to Comment vainamoinen
vainamoinen's picture

As we all know that the two foundations of a modern industrial/consumerist economy are oil and credit and without one or the other the economy collapses. Thanks for this regular energy reporting at zerohedge - one stop shopping and all that.

As reported at many sources the (possibly) "low IQ" Nigerian gentleman bought a one way ticket for cash, had no luggage and no passport and still got on the plane for Detroit. This has CIA set-up written all over it and some reporting indicates the White House is including that possibility. 

I wonder how Barack is sleeping night's now that he knows he might prove to be, all too soon, an unnecessary front for the deep National Security State.

We are at war for oil. That's a fact. Deeper still is the fact that Al-Qaeda is a CIA puppet organisation conveniently placed in various important locals to legitimize our military interdiction where necessary in the war for oil.

Since the MSM is completely void of any information we need to make informed decisions in terms of personal and financial survival we continue to rely on sites like zerohedge to provide illumination as to significant economic and economic related issues as the information becomes available.

Thanks for the post!

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 22:33 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

The Military-Industrial complex has been simplified to the Military-Foreign Crude Oil Complex. One hand washes the other and both feast at the public trough. If a National Emergency were properly called immediately to begin reliance on and tax-incentivise domestic natty gas, the ensuing Peace dividend would be transcendental. The Majors are getting the message: XOM bought XTO for the reserves as did CNX for 25% of CHK's. When they own enough, they'll buy the politicians necessary to keep them in control...until then the FED will do its worst to keep the public sheep's wool shorn by the top twenty Major Banks as in the post in macroeconomic forums here on Private Central Banks.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 06:50 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 22:14 | Link to Comment Chopshop
Chopshop's picture

absolutely fantastic.  what an awesome piece!

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:16 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Indeed, a fabulous piece.  Looks like Yemen (S. Arabia, Ethiopia, Puntland, Oman, Sudan,etc.) is yet another Third World snakepit similar to:

-- the Balkans (OK Europe, but)

-- the Caucases

-- Afghanistan and central Asia (the 'stans')

Maybe it's time to take care of our own problems rather than send treasure & American dead to 3rd World hell-holes who do not want us there anyway...?

Scott Brown's victory tonight may help us clarify the problems before us.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 03:51 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 22:20 | Link to Comment Harbourcity
Harbourcity's picture

The complications that occur in the final years of a dying empire. 

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 22:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 22:32 | Link to Comment john_connor
john_connor's picture

Scott Brown wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 22:43 | Link to Comment Unscarred
Unscarred's picture

WOW!  Thank CHRIST!!!

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Gordon_Gekko
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:05 | Link to Comment Amish FinEng
Amish FinEng's picture

YES! Now I don't have to be Amish anymore!!

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:15 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:39 | Link to Comment MrPalladium
MrPalladium's picture

"Is here some Aryan homeland where you road horses and unceremoniously killed and dismembered each other. If so we should gladly take up a collection to send you back."

Dude! Where is my free ticket??

You realize, of course, that the "dismemberments" were staged just to keep the holier-than-thou liberal rif raf out.

Keepin it pure!!

ROFL!!

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:17 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

another round of who do you currently hate the least

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 09:21 | Link to Comment jbcorwin
jbcorwin's picture

+1, Thank god.

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:10 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

The state of Yemen's oil 

http://www.energybulletin.net/node/51227

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:04 | Link to Comment Slewburger
Slewburger's picture

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ym.html

Number one resource.

Any military action wouldn't/doesn't surprise me. Stability is poor, sounds like a good excuse go blow through a few billion on Xe... Or put some backscatter xray machines in airports.

 

 

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 12:27 | Link to Comment jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

All the attention isn't about Al-Qeada.  It's about oil and the Queen's plan to attack Iran.

 

If you attack Iran, the Straits of Hormuz are shut off/closed/blockaded.  What does that mean? No saudi or other mideastern oil.

 

So if you want to attack Iran, and the QUEEN WANTS US TO, we must have a position in YEMEN the only other area from which to get Saudi Oil out of the mideast, is Yemen.

 

Besides when the Queen is using U.S. helicopters to fly in taliban to hit our soldiers in Afghan, is playing up Iran's capability and trying to get Israel and Iran to fight, then why not yemen?  They've always been aided by Saudi Arabia (London or better yet Londonistan).  It's very simple, xmas day plot was by the Queen for losing the Copnehagen new dark age agreement.  It's really that simple.  The road to all terrorists (and terrorist actions against the USA) go through Buckingham palace.

 

I'm glad Brown won.  I'm a dem, and we just lost our shot at doing anything for at least or around a year, perhaps three years. But we didn't deserve it.  Why? Because Obama and Rahm didn't fight for the people, and in 1 year they went from savior's to goats.  (actually far less than 1 year). 

 

It's not about YOU Obama, it's about US.  You doing YOUR thing, isn't the same as you doing OUR thing.

 

No single payer health care = no health reform

No kicking in the nuts of the financial sector = no wall street reform

No switching to American credit system = No recovery

 

It's not hard to see why Brown won.  I only saw some of his speech and he actually looked like one of the 5 percent of Republicans fit for service in congress.  So I'm glad that type of republican won. 

 

I've been saying it all along, if you're not in the Dennis Kucinich (dem) wing, or the Ron Paul (repub) wing, you are just wasting the people's time and once they figure out you don't have the policies of either of them, they're going to kick you out.

 

It appears, although I haven't studied him, that he is more in the mold of Ron Paul than Limp Boener, thank god. 

 

The funny thing is to remember, if repubs don't change, AND IN WAYS THEY ARE COMPLETELY OPPOSED TO, they'll be on the firing line soon enough by the American voters. 

 

It's either govern in an optimal way for the people, or get voted out....no matter WHAT party you are.

 

Lots of dems and repubs should be scared, because they are next, and they are the leadership (and those after them) of both parties.

 

So looking ahead, instead of actually getting stuff done, now we're in gridlock at a time we need action, and it won't change for at least or around a year.  This could put us in very serious danger, but one we have to face because of Obama's bending over for the Queen and her malthusian policies.

 

Without change we're screwed.  Now we're in a period where we cannot change.  The reappointment of Ben Bernanke, and the extension of the debt ceiling just got a whole lot more interesting.

 

The only way for Obama to avoid complete defeat? Simple...be the president we voted for.  Single Payer.  End the wars.  HPBA of 2007. American Credit System. LaRouche 4 Powers plan.  (and a few others)

 

That means breaking with the Queen, Rahm Emmanuel, his retarded malthusian doctor brother Ez-kill Emmanuel, Peter Orszag, Bernanke, Geithner, and EVERY advisor who told you to go down the Wall Street, Center Politics road.  The people demanded change, and left policies, as well as REAL right policies.  As president you had 2 of the 3 under their control, and failed. Thus this vote.

 

Do that and Obama survives.  If he does not, he will go down as being as bad as bush.  Well not quite as bad as all Bush did for 8 years was wake up and put a sledgehammer to a dam.  But if Obama does the queen's bidding like bush did, he'll catch up.  But without 60 votes, I doubt he can do as much damage as Bush for the Queen.

 

The real question is, can repubs govern? Nope.  Because they still don't agree that 90 percent of the problem, is a problem.  Everything about their positions preclude them from having any answers.  For if they actually solve the problems, they'll have to tax, spend, grow government, etc, etc which they won't do.

 

That's where we are, and it ain't pretty.  But it was neccessary, and is probably as bad as it is, better than the alternative. 

 

If the dems pass the Senate bill to pass anything, instead of realizing they ran the marathon on the wrong track, they'll lose it all.

 

Then we'll have to wait until the repubs mess up EVEN MORE and HARDER and they get kicked out.  We've had 2 change elections (AND FOR SOME 3), this will be 3/4, and we might neet 4/5 and perhaps even 5/6 to finish this out.  Meanwhile, until they realize this we're up schmidt creek without a paddle.

 

Party loyalty is finished.  It costs the country too damn much. But maybe thats a few years early.

 

 

 

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:12 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

All in all you're just another brick in the wall.

How could the U.S. ever hope to untangle the political and military spaghetti of the area?

All the more reason to work on energy independence -- of some sort.

We keep supplying military hardware to our "friends" in the area, only to have them used it on us in the long run.  How 'bout just arming them all to the teeth and then leaving them to do each other in? 

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 01:37 | Link to Comment darkpool2
darkpool2's picture

+100

and the bang for the buck in terms of domestic stimulus/political capital from an "energy independence" program is huge........so the fact that such a simple notion isnt upfront and center suggests that even more powerful interests are taking precedence. The "third way " is looking like the only way.

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:49 | Link to Comment AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

-

Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:38 | Link to Comment SDRII
SDRII's picture

saudi airforce launches another bombing run into yemen

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 01:01 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Tue, 01/19/2010 - 23:42 | Link to Comment A tumor named Marla
A tumor named Marla's picture

Wow, war between.....Ethiopia and Eritrea.....uh huh......

The body count could be in the dozens.  It might rise to the level of being a blip in Headline News (right after a celebrity sighting and before a hockey score).  The national security concerns are......uh.......

Big deal -- so some third-worlders want to continue their historical pissing match, now with AK-47s instead of machetes.  Good riddance to them; maybe they'll have their terrorist asshole pals focus on each other for a change.

Let it burn -- who'll notice?

 

 

 

 

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 00:14 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 03:05 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 00:31 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 04:35 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Oh yeah, hidden in plain sight. The media shepherds have contructed the electrified Fear fence as in www.ae911truth.org. The 80% go-with-the-winders see it with their own eyes, and deny reality because they listen to the official media before they think for themselves. Cognitive dissonance is God's cosmic trick. Be here now to see there when. Home schooling keeps you free.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 00:46 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 00:58 | Link to Comment Fish Gone Bad
Fish Gone Bad's picture

The United States has an unstable third world piece-of-trash on its border with bullets flying by everyday.  That is a really really big problem.  Once the individual states fail (because they are bankrupt), and can no longer mount a police force, the cancer south of our border will spread to all of our cities.  It will be just like the Opium Wars, only in reverse.  There's a cartoon in there someplace.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 01:06 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Seems you've chosen a fitting user name.  Congratulations on a deep and thorough analysis of the situation in Mexico.  And this bears on the Yemen topic how? Hope to hear more from you.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:43 | Link to Comment Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

Good.  Then we can take the rest of mexico we left them before and get the natural resources they have

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:46 | Link to Comment Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

then we can work on Canada after that

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 04:49 | Link to Comment ToNYC
ToNYC's picture

Working on the Roman Empire playbook fed by the engine of Japanese Banking policy? China used its cheap labor fed by consumer carrots to pick up the fight Russia lost in 1989. The Cold War was won for a few months 'till a wink and a nod to April Glaspie in late June 1990. Synthetic Terror is the whack-a-mole to keep the game going with the favorite Cowboys and Indians theme. Mexican cheap labor was invited in labor outsourcing, and they breed for multiple chances at the US piñata. Deal with it, you bought the package.

Find your enemy within and start schoolin' him.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:26 | Link to Comment DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

New Senator Scott Brown has shaken up the political equation.  This may bring on an economic collapse quicker but easier in the long run.

The USA is so screwed by our .gov and WS banks that there is NO easy way out of our predicament.  Big problems lie ahead.  All will be affected.  Batten down the hatches my ZH friends!

Look out for No. 1 and your families in the perilous times ahead.  And maybe yet our culture will help us through the trials to come.  To me, the USA has been the best experiment in liberty and prosperity the world has seen.  Let's hope we can keep our country the beacon it should be!

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:45 | Link to Comment Gold...Bitches
Gold...Bitches's picture

Brown.  Coakley.  Obama.  Bush.  Other than the rhetoric - theres no difference.  Big business still is the winner.  The only difference is WHICH big businesses win.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 04:21 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 02:59 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 03:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 04:54 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 05:03 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 09:40 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 10:18 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 05:34 | Link to Comment theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

rule one of domestic policy

when in economic trouble at home, find a foreign enemy to distract your people with.

You would think Iraq, Ian and Afghanistan were enough........ but no, the mighty Yemen has us quaking in our boots.

Send for Rambo.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 05:51 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

Already balls deep in the Af, Iraq is the slovenly mistress, and Iran is the King's daughter (can't touch her without MAJOR trouble).  The Military Industrial Complex is a himbo, so of course it goes for Yemen.  The more the marrier.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 05:45 | Link to Comment Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

We are so thankful that plane did not blow up, Kurt Haskell.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 12:13 | Link to Comment bugs_
bugs_'s picture

It seems an HVT has moved to Yemen recently.

Wed, 01/20/2010 - 14:26 | Link to Comment Anonymous
Wed, 01/20/2010 - 16:41 | Link to Comment pak
pak's picture

The piece is exciting to read and it does capture the "geopolitical" landscape. The critique of Western obsession with the "categorization and profiling" of various insurgent groups is also very much correct. However, the article has to be taken with care as it is misleading in a number of ways:

a) it obfuscates the Somalia conflict; this conflict is intricately interwoven with regional politics; understanding that Eritrea, for example, is supporting Sheikh Dahir Aweys and not Ash-Shabaab, is of prime importance; not a word of Somali clans and clan base of Somaliland and Puntland is mentioned (Somaliland has some Majerteen population, and that's how they clash with Puntland)!

b) US influence cannot be assumed away. US is playing an absolutely pivotal (though in the end, mostly negative) role in the region. The Ethiopian invasion, the AMISOM contingent, regular air strikes inside Somalia. In the end however, the US plays into the hands of the Shabaab (stands for "youth", btw) who are ironically turning into the only entity capable of effectively promoting justice and unity in Somalia (they're also quite savvy both strategically and tactically, btw).

c) The author seems to have a personal issue with the business relationship between Saleh and Yusuf. This is an interesting reading but I wouldn't overestimate its strategic impact.

d) The "Iranian-Russian alliance" does not exist. Full stop. The two countries do co-operate on a much larger scale than the US would like them to, but there's nothing which points to this relationship being anything like an "alliance". It simply cannot be observed. Such a thing as a "Iranian-Russian alliance" is a chimera which visits US rednecks in their nightmares. The Iranian influence may have been overestimated by the author, even if it's an important player. As for Russia, its impact as of now is negligible. Its fleet in the Red Sea has no other role but to show to the world that the Russian Navy is still afloat despite and absolutely disastrous track of technical incidents in recent years, and the shameful failure of the "Bulava" SLBM project.

e) You cannot fail to mention China and its oil interests in Sudan and Ogaden (Ethiopia). China is a "wild card" which is very important to keep in mind - even if so far it hasn't shown interest in anything but oil.

All-in-all, the article seems to have an alarmist bias, pushing for an even more pro-active US stance in the region. However, without a readiness to engage previously demonized adversaries (such as Aweys), this approach will likely result in more destabilization.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!