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Guest Post: Migration Of The Black Swans

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Giordano Bruno of Neithercorp Press

Migration Of The Black Swans

The phrase “Black Swan” is really making the rounds these last few
months. Uttering the term a year ago would have earned you a collection
of confused looks and a general attitude of disinterest. Now, people
behave as if they had learned about economic shockwave events and the
global domino effect when they were in kindergarten. The problem is
that when this kind of terminology hits the mainstream, in most cases it
comes prepackaged with dumbed down and diluted definitions which
promote an inadequate, cartoonish understanding of the circumstances.

To be sure, most Americans are well aware that the world’s political
and economic foundations are about as stable as fresh pudding under a
heat lamp. The problem is that they are now being conditioned by the
mainstream media to view the idea of collapse as “cinematic”; a kind of
live action fantasy in which we all get to play the part of the
audience, watching safely from the dark in our cushy theater seats with a
bag of overpriced popcorn, Dolby surround sound, and a hot date to keep
us company during the boring parts. Three years ago, even mentioning
the idea of a breakdown in society or a financial catastrophe beyond a
minor recession earned you the label of “doom monger”; a rather inept
and naïve attempt on the part of the MSM to silence any economic
analysis that stepped outside the establishment Keynesian framework.
Today, I turn around to look at a magazine stand at the airport and
right in front of me is Newsweek openly declaring “Apocalypse Now”!

Is the mainstream finally catching up to the alternative media? No.
The MSM is merely adopting pieces of our common language and twisting
them to fit a more globalist friendly viewpoint. Because our readership
is growing exponentially, and our traffic is skyrocketing while
corporatized news sources are floundering, the MSM is losing its ability
to obscure our fact based journalism with their over funded and highly
sterilized adaptation of reality. So instead, they attempt to co-opt
our particular vocabulary, and our news focus, while adding their own
subtle spin and sensationalism. When people not familiar with the
alternative media and the more in-depth information we provide talk
about a “Black Swan event”, a depression, hyperinflation, etc., their
concept of the implications of such disasters is far different than
ours. They are living in the Disney version of financial and social

Of course, when the curtains raise, the previews are over, and the
show begins, none of us will be lounging comfortably outside these
calamities to simply watch. We will all be inexorably involved, whether
we like it or not. So, carry on with the media war we must. Educating
the masses on the ENTIRE story behind international events and their
consequences continues to stand as a top priority, until that final
straw caves the camel’s back and disseminating the truth becomes a
needless exercise in pointing out the horrifyingly obvious.

First, let’s examine the veiled reverberations of recent “Black Swan”
events, the wider view of the chain that ties them together, as well as
what we should expect in the near future in the wake of their

Fukushima Mon Amour

If I could choose only one tragedy to be categorized as a textbook
example of a Black Swan, it is the earthquake and subsequent tsunami off
the coast of northern Japan which led to the current and precarious
meltdown of the nuclear reactors at Fukushima. Now, the immediate
concerns of Western nations, especially citizens of the U.S., have
automatically turned to the threat of radioactive fallout traveling
across the Pacific. Unfortunately, radioactivity is the least of our
troubles in the face of Japanese nuclear core exposure. Again, Japan is
currently the number three economy in the world, and the effects of the
Fukushima incident have contributed to the possibility of a full
spectrum crisis.

First, we must always keep in mind that incidents in areas like Japan
or the Middle East are NOT the direct cause of global economic or
social turmoil; they are only trigger points for an avalanche that has
been building for the past three to four years. If Fukushima had
occurred in 2007, international markets would have easily absorbed the
blow, but today, economies everywhere have been so weakened by the
implosion of the banker created derivatives bubble and the inflationary
fiat measures of private organizations like the Federal Reserve that
they no longer have the capacity to shield themselves from unexpected
catastrophes. Big banks have been playing a massive game of Jenga with
the global economy, pulling one support after another until the whole
construct begins to sway and tremble. One gust of wind, one tremor, one
wrong move, and the whole thing comes crashing down. If you want to
place blame for the chaos we are about to see in the aftermath of
Fukushima, be sure to place it where it belongs; on the doorstep of
corporate monstrosities like the Fed, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, HSBC,

Second, Japan’s official debt to GDP ratio now stands at 225%, way
above the limit usually attributed to a country on the verge of complete
debt destruction. The cost of rebuilding the areas damaged by the
tsunami alone is estimated at around $300 billion. My primary concern
in light of Japanese instability, though, is the severe weakening of
their export markets. Japan is almost entirely reliant on its export
capacity to support its ailing economy, meaning they are dependent on
other countries to continually purchase their goods. However, in 2008,
Japanese exports were pummeled, and have not improved anywhere near
levels reached previous to the credit collapse, at least according to
initial numbers for 2010:

The earthquake and nuclear meltdown of 2011 have sealed Japan’s fate.
It could take ten, twenty, even thirty years for them to recuperate
from this setback. Manufacturing in the Asian nation has already
deteriorated at the fastest pace in nearly a decade:

Japanese food exports are being shunned by international markets for
fear of radioactive contamination. Prime Minister Naoto Khan is now
pleading with the WTO to urge its members to avoid curbing imports of
Japanese goods, claiming that the government is on top of the Fukushima

This hardly appears to be the case though. Reports of radioactive
iodine 10,000 times safe levels in the water table below Fukushima have
surfaced; reports which the Tokyo Electric Power Company is now vaguely
stating “may be incorrect”:

The secrecy surrounding Japan’s nuclear meltdown is highly
disconcerting and reminiscent of the Chernobyl incident in 1986, which
the Soviet Union also refused to report honestly. Nearby cities were
completely uninformed as to the true danger of the meltdown, and the
international community was without a clue as to the extent of the
radiation until Sweden, nearly seven hundred miles away, discovered
radioactive particulates in its atmosphere. The problem with a
containment breach in a nuclear plant is that it releases a steady
stream of radioactive materials into the environment until the plant is
finally buried under tons of concrete, lead, boric acid, and sand, as
opposed to a nuclear weapon, which detonates, irradiating surrounding
particles, which then dissipate after around two weeks. Fukushima, if
left uncontained, could spew radioactivity for decades. The Japanese
government does not seem to be providing forthright information about
the real jeopardy involved.

Of course, if they were forthright, there would certainly be alarm
amongst the citizenry, but even more so, a flight of investment dollars
from Japanese industry and stocks. The only equity in Japan which seems
to be attracting investment is the Yen itself, which skyrocketed
against the U.S. dollar at the onset of the crisis:

The Yen has climbed steadily against the dollar since the early
1970’s, from 300 yen per dollar, to only 80 yen per dollar after
Fukushima. I find it interesting that now, during times of financial
uncertainty, global investors would rather pour their savings into the
currency of a country that is about to be radioactive, rather than put
their savings into the U.S. Greenback! What does that tell you about
the level of trust the world currently has in our currency?

Being that Japan is a dedicated export economy, the higher the Yen
goes, the more strenuous the exchange rate, and the less other countries
will buy from them. G7 nations have since attempted to artificially
knock down the rise of the Yen, but their efforts have yielded little
success. The Yen still stands at around 83 per dollar. Hardly an
improvement that will make Japanese exports more viable.

So, where is this all leading…? High speed deflationary depression
for Japan. But that’s not all! The ASEAN trading bloc, led by China
and fueled by the rising Yuan, has been pushing Japan to join the fold
for years. Japan has been less than receptive to the proposition for
numerous cultural, political, and financial reasons. But now, with the
complete downfall of the country underway, and their export capability
crumbling, Japan may go begging to join ASEAN. Already, ASEAN is
beginning to offer help in Japan’s rebuilding process:

What does this mean for the U.S.? It means the Japanese will likely
begin a progressive dump of their vast reserves of U.S. Treasuries and
dollars, replacing them with Yuan bonds. Its means a severe devaluation
of the dollar in the near future along with the possible end to its
World Reserve Currency status. It means hyperinflation in America.
This is the true nature of a Black Swan event. It is not a single
incident, but a chain reaction that spreads like cancer through an
economic system, leading to broader misfortune than anyone dared

Once Upon A Time In The Middle East

The effects of the revolutionary fervor in the land of OPEC are a bit
more obvious than those caused by Japan, at least, for the most part.
Crude oil is now climbing towards $107 per barrel at the publishing of
this piece. World markets are swinging wildly like a cheap carnival
ride. Political alliances (especially between the U.S. and its primary
oil suppliers) are becoming strained. The dollar’s peg to oil is now
under threat. But this is really no surprise. As we have discussed in
past articles, it is exactly what happened to the British Empire in the
early 1950’s when it attempted to strong arm Middle Eastern governments
and maintain the oil trade under the Pound Sterling. Eventually, the
British became embroiled in Arab conflicts and revolts they could not
possibly untangle, and their main debt holders (one of which was the
United States) threatened to dump British Treasuries and the pound
sterling as the world reserve currency. Sound familiar….?

So now that America is repeating the blunders of the British (most
likely by design), what can we expect from turmoil in the Middle East?

First, crude prices are going to continue expanding. Not so much due
to supply concerns (Libya, for instance, makes up only 2% of global oil
production), but because of the escalating distrust of the U.S. and its
interests in the region, leading to a likely decoupling of oil from the
greenback. The Obama Administration’s response to this growing danger
has been, interestingly, to focus not on the devaluation of the dollar,
but instead, to distract us with more nonsensical supply side theories.
The president (and I use that term loosely) has seen fit to present yet
another model for “green alternatives” which would supposedly diminish
Americas dependence on foreign oil supplies. Unfortunately, this plan’s
main drive is to cut oil importation to the U.S by one third over the
next ten years while we are at the very onset of an energy crisis. Keep
in mind that this plan does NOT include utilizing the extensive crude
oil reserves discovered in America’s northwest:

Absolutely brilliant! Let’s cut our oil supply by a third while the
dollar is in the midst of losing its reserve status and Obama fumbles
about with biofuels that rely mainly on corn, a commodity which is also
exploding in cost due to dollar devaluation, and requires more energy to
refine than it eventually produces. Does anyone doubt anymore that
this government is deliberately sabotaging our economy?! Holy Frijoles!

China’s move over the past two years to purchase more oil from Russia
instead of the Middle East while dropping the dollar as a reserve
currency in bilateral trade now seems almost clairvoyant, doesn’t it?

As the destabilization of the Middle East spreads, the most volatile
situation is not even necessarily that of oil and the dollar, but that
of Syria. Due to its alliances and its tensions with Israel, Syria has
become the keystone of the Middle East. Any disruption in Syria could
lead to widespread war in the region, involving not just the U.S., but
also Russia. Protests have begun to rage in the country, just as in the
rest of the Arab nations, which has suddenly peaked the interest of the
publication ‘Foreign Policy’; the official magazine of the Council on
Foreign Relations, a well known globalist think tank. In a recent
article, they called the state of affairs in Syria the “Syrian Time

Foreign Policy covers the basics of the Syrian connection, but omits a
very important factor; the revamped Russian naval base on the coast of
Syria itself. I have written several articles over the past four years
covering the possibility of a Syrian chain reaction. Here is a quote
from one, published in June, 2010 to illustrate the potential for
calamity that could unfold if Syria is invaded or even politically
pressured by the U.S. or Israel:

This leads us to what may end up being the most important
news of last year besides the “Great Recession”; a defense pact signed
between Iran and Syria:

So, what elements are we dealing with here? We have a
nuclear armed Israel itching to attack Iran. We have Iran engaged in a
defense pact with Syria against Israel. We have Syria with Russian navy
bases and weapons on its soil, and we have the U.S. rampaging through
the Middle East encroaching on the borders of Pakistan and Yemen,
essentially pissing off everyone. What we have is a Globalist made
recipe for disaster, using the same ingredients they have used for the
last several major wars.

There is little doubt, Syria is in the beginning stages of revolution at
this very moment. The government has responded with the same murderous
tactics that have been attributed to Gaddafi in Libya, including
shooting down protesters using snipers (meaning soldiers were not firing
in random panic, but deliberately picking targets and killing unarmed
citizens in cold blood):

Will the U.S. or the UN respond to Syrian upheaval as they have in
Libya? If they do, expect a powder keg reaction far more violent than
we have yet seen, and also expect Russia to begin taking a much greater
interest in the affairs of the Middle East. The hidden consequences of
the Black Swan strike again…

Swan Lake, Or Swan Dive?

The flow of events from one into the other, melding and changing like
the currents of a river, can become confusing, if not downright
terrifying. The underlying rush of economies and political tensions is
often obscured by disinformation, as well as the distracting nature of
simultaneous cataclysms. What is created in the torrent of this global
swell is a kind of ‘factory of fear’; a frenetic blast of winding
grinding machinery swirling around us with menacing gears made of panic
and dread. A step in the wrong direction, and we lose an arm or a leg.
Black Swan incidents are not the source of this pandemonium. In fact,
they sometimes shock the masses into clarity. They reveal the hidden
landmines strewn about our financial and social landscape. They cause
migrations of decline and surprisingly erratic reactions within a
system, but also expose the fallacies inherent in that system as well.
The key is to not allow fear to drive our response to the now
unmistakable problems we face.

Whether we stand in defense against one adversity, or a thousand at
once, is irrelevant. The bottom line is that we cannot lose focus, we
cannot fail, and we cannot stop. There is no other choice but to move
forward, and to prevail.

You can contact Giordano Bruno here:


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Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:24 | 1124987 Golden monkey
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1125051 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

black is good in obama nation

suing for whiteness

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1125075 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Good grief. If you've ever mistkenly been on Joseph E. Lowery Blvd in Atlanta you'll realize where this movement is headed.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:04 | 1125124 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

I like the Newsweek sub-headline:
"Ho ignorant are you?"
109th and normandy bitch I seen you der

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:34 | 1125194 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

"How ignorant are you?"  Duh, I'd have to be ignorant enough to buy their magazine to find out how ignorant I REALLY am.

...and we call this journalism? 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:35 | 1125213 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Looks like an attempt for Atlanta to grab some fresh taxbase territory via annexation as soon as these towns' incoporporation is eliminated.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:27 | 1125610 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

Whats NEXT?

Since you ask, Im going all in on the dollar is delvalued/collapses.

A very close second guess, a dirty bomb, on the US homeland, by terriosts of course, just to put all this 911 stuff behind us? What city you ask? Which city has the most finacial records? No idea which city it will be. Maybe they stick a bomb down a oil well of the coast of Califorina. Hello tsumina, good bye LA. And all you half backed Califorinas, will think it is all part of 2012 prophecy.

I expect the feds to capitizize on the publics beliefs about 2012.  Just like they did in 2000.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:35 | 1125658 johnnynaps
johnnynaps's picture

That has been my fear the last 2 weeks. To see how the market is reacting to these catastrophes......I think it is time to expect something dirty from our overlords.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1124991 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

while obama rains missile on libya, ben rains dollars - makes perfect sense

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:36 | 1125048 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Unfortunately things arent going so well for the 'rebels' (Obama) in Libya, theyre gettin their ass kicked this morning. Now we're going to land 2,000 out for the 1 million AK's and RPG's he's handed out to the people. This will make Iraq look like nothing. Ready for high casualty war? I dont think america is.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1125127 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

It;s evident that the black swan sighting bar is set waaaay too low.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:17 | 1125160 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

Today's black swans are actually white swans that have been irradiated and covered in oil.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:14 | 1125150 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You kidding me, how many Cicvies even have a clue that we are firing missiles there? How many people in this country don't even watch the news, not even the MSM garbage? I know several that are like this.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1125002 arnoldsimage
arnoldsimage's picture

i tell you the truth. we could have a 9.6 quake in L.A., have half of california slip into the pacific and still the dow would explode higher. commercial reits to the moon, baby.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:35 | 1125033 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

A lot of debt and bad policy would slide into the ocean with it.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:53 | 1125089 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Goldfinger baby!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1125163 uhb
uhb's picture

NOPE. The living daylights, bitchez!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:44 | 1125232 philgramm
philgramm's picture


if Cali fell off the continent that would be a good reason for the Dow to spike

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:32 | 1125635 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

  The Black Swan arguement is BULLSHIT. Maybe if you looked at it as a flock of Black Swans, that I could buy, but not just one measley sBlack Swan in the subprime market and here is why. When you have, concurrent epic failures across many sectors, such as rating agencies, (Moody's , S&P) regulatory agencies, (CFTC, SEC) mortgage standards, Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae, (the current scape goat) and AIG, not to mention the Black Swan in Subprime ; all at the same time?

Too many black swans>>>> conspiracy

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:36 | 1125664 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

But of course GS and their main client, Paulson could spot these black swans, and each would profit almost$10 billion each on betting against this black swan in the sky.

Ironically, HanK Paulson, former CEO of GS, happened to be very skilled at spotting birds of prey, maybe even balck Swans.

Unfortunetly, Hank was working at the WH at the time.

Why GS, nor their client Paulson never called the WH, to tell Hank Paulson , about this balck swan they spotted in the sky?

My only guess, is that the $10 billion was more important. Everyman has his price.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:38 | 1125217 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Of course the Dow would rise.   Do you know how many illegal aliens and welfare recipients would be underwater if that happened?  


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:53 | 1125745 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

In theory, many buildings collaspe > lower supply > REITS through the roof.

But what if you lose many people/ tennats when the buildings collapse? Then the market just might hold steady?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:48 | 1126312 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Note that with Japan as the #3 economy, Cali is #7 and that ain't no porkchop. The real Black Swan is when the Big One hits the San Andreas fault, all of North America east of the Sierras will slip into the Atlantic Ocean. Owieee!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1125004 TheObsoleteMan
TheObsoleteMan's picture

Today's definition of black swan: Should the Fed suddenly decide to discontinue QE. Thats what it would take. Anything short of that is just a hiccup.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1125021 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Live by the sword die by the sword. All bad news is great news since that means more FED free money dumps, so good news has to be bad news then. Stop POMO, QE, and raise rates go ahead I dares ya.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1125053 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

POMO et al can't go on forever, all bullshit aside.  When it breaks there'll be no stopping the rush for exits.  But, when?!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:43 | 1125063 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Could be on a day like today, when the last sideline sitter decides it must be safe to finally get in. Who knows?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:14 | 1125151 throughthewire
throughthewire's picture

Yes, that's the day that's coming, maybe very, very soon.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1125338 Chump
Chump's picture

I'll let y'all know.  Just about the time I decide to try and make a few bucks we go to sub-666, guaranteed.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1125006 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL - newsweek, the expert on ignorance

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:59 | 1125110 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Top of cover:

How ignorant are you?

Joe Sixpack:

What's ignorant?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:10 | 1125134 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

igornance is bliss.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:33 | 1125638 camoes
camoes's picture

What is bliss bitch?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1125007 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

LvMI Austrian Scholars Conference 2011 (links to video and audio) -

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:31 | 1125011 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People just dont understand 'black swan' these days. Now its all about nuclear transformer black Rhodans.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:31 | 1125014 Dragline
Dragline's picture

When something like this appears on a mainstream news magazine, it usually means the opposite will happen in the immediate future.  Like when Businessweek said the stock market was dead in 1980.

Long term, all bets are off.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:34 | 1125026 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The stock market actually has been dead since about 1980.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1125065 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

How was the Debt to GDP level of the US in 1980?  How does it compare to now?

Was there a Euro in 1980?  How about PIIGS in crisis back in 1980?  Coordinated Central Bank ponzi printing madness back then? Unlimited negative interest rates as far as the eye can see and beyond? 

How about the money supply in the 80's? 

While the PPT was in place in the 80's, today's POMO makes them look like pussies.

How many wars was the US in back in the 80's?  I count 5 open, and announced, engagements as of now. 

Where the primary dealers hitting the discount window like a red-headed step child in the 80's?

Inflation adjusted crude oil in 80's? 

1980 $37.42 $99.11 1981 $35.75 $85.82 1982 $31.83 $71.95 1983 $29.08 $63.66 1984 $28.75 $60.34 1985 $26.92 $54.54 1986 $14.44 $28.70 1987 $17.75 $33.05 1988 $14.87 $27.45 1989 $18.33 $32.22

Some people laugh at the "this time is different" talk, but the fact of the matter this time is different as the facts on the ground have greatly erodedbeyond the ponzi run of the 80's, plus the S&L crisis actually saw bank fuckers go to jail by the hundreds. 

Comparing this situation to the 80's should show that we are FUBAR'd and the bag holders in equities, along with public pension holders and social security dependents, are the last bastion of serf paper wealth.  Prepare to see it go bye-bye as this is the last of US domestic wealth. 


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:13 | 1125337 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

High speed deflationary depression for Japan. 

I find it fascinating that those who always assume inflation is contagious, never think the same is true for deflation.  Japan has been leading us down since 1989.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:22 | 1125597 Chump
Chump's picture

Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait one second.

Are you basically saying I won't be getting my pension in 25 years?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 18:13 | 1126762 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

Not to worry. If Fuckishima reaches its full potential you'll be dead.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1125072 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

Is it like when Cramer tells everybody to buy gold?



Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:01 | 1125114 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Does anyone really listen to Cramer? I thought he was the guy parents would show their kids how they would sound if they did not take their Ritalin.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:11 | 1125136 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Cramer's record is worse than Goldman's.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:52 | 1125262 falak pema
falak pema's picture

which Cramer are you talking about...The guy in Seinfeld was slap on the button...he was Groucho's son.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1125291 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Actually Bruno makes a similar point when he says MSM will twist catchphrases like this to fit their globalist-friendly agenda.

Tough to argue with that observation.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1125023 Bearster
Bearster's picture

The expression "black swan" reveals what's wrong with so-called "science" today (including especially those pretentious fools in the field of economics who think they can predict human behavior just like physicists predict particles of an ideal gas, using differential equations).  In the postmodern "science", all one can do is count and classify things.  So one sees lots of white swans and one can never think about the essence of swanness.  So a black swan is an unprecedented phenomenon, who could possibly have imagined!

So it is with econometric models with their (false) gaussian distributions.  Who could possibly have predicted a stubborn recession and unemployment??  The Austrians, who don't use differential equations but instead look at malinvestment booms and the necessary following busts.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:34 | 1125025 Reptil
Reptil's picture

the point is that "crisis management" is reactive not proactive.

the doomers have a head start on Joe 6 Pack since the consequences, and possible solutions have been examined.

instead of looking at these possible solutions, the powers that be (and their MSM dogs) will use the ensuing panic to reep more benefit (power grab? world government?).

I'm betting on it. There are no "wise men" in control. The system of "elboing your way up" made sure very few are in or even near the top of the pyramid.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:32 | 1125027 BS_Merchant
BS_Merchant's picture

My ADHD stops me from reading articles this long. Can someone summarise?

Should I buy more silver or not?


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1125178 goldfish1
goldfish1's picture


    • MSM is merely adopting pieces of our common language and twisting them to fit a more globalist friendly viewpoint
    • Japan is currently the number three economy in the world, and the effects of the Fukushima incident have contributed to the possibility of a full spectrum crisis.
    • Big banks have been playing a massive game of Jenga with the global economy
    • Japan is almost entirely reliant on its export capacity to support its ailing economy
    • The earthquake and nuclear meltdown of 2011 have sealed Japan’s fate.
    • Japanese food exports are being shunned by international markets
    • The secrecy surrounding Japan’s nuclear meltdown …Fukushima, if left uncontained, could spew radioactivity for decades.
    • real jeopardy involved.
    • It means a severe devaluation of the dollar
    • The dollar’s peg to oil is now under threat.
    • Does anyone doubt anymore that this government is deliberately sabotaging our economy
    • the revamped Russian naval base on the coast of Syria We have Iran engaged in a defense pact with Syria against Israel.
    • disinformation, as well as the distracting nature of simultaneous cataclysms.
    • they sometimes shock the masses into clarity.
    • not allow fear to drive our response
    • move forward, and to prevail.
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:08 | 1125295 falak pema
falak pema's picture

elmer gantry you be...which dogma do you preach? to slay these black swans...No money no government we church we go to hell??? this the message???

We should all become Q-daffy fans and realize that he is true role model for the ages to come : dictator, arms merchant, oil pedlar, terrorist, dynastic head, lover of Ukranian nurses; he has every quality the Oligarchy loves to play copycat with...would you vote for him and his one man church? I'm sure he is being invited to Bilderberg.


I'm glad to see that TD adheres to Fukushima mon amour.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:07 | 1125805 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Summary of the summary: We're fucked.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:32 | 1125028 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Mad panic to buy stocks.

Way too many guys underinvested and sitting on the sidelines.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:39 | 1125052 Reptil
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:11 | 1125135 Wynn
Wynn's picture

nice comeback

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:02 | 1125118 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

underinvested like you sitting at 30% invested. you have no courage. you're scared to death you'll lose money which is odd for the self-proclaimed world's greatest investor. actually, if you were a money manager using your own criteria you would have been fired eons ago given your fear and underperformance.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:41 | 1125231 Astute Investor
Astute Investor's picture

+0.7% = panic?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:36 | 1125038 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Curious that the Movie Black Swan was released in December 2010, just as the clusterflock was forming. 

And this is not going away, anywhere. Anytime soon. When it seems to ease off is only the in-breath before the next expulsion/explosion.

I look around at India, in it's own infococoon, singing All is well, all is well. Cars flyign off the dealer lots.... just seems to be a set up for something big. We shall see.

To prevail, right there is the great human error. But that we learnt to flow.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:09 | 1125131 Population Bubble
Population Bubble's picture

Most life forms go through periods of efflorescence when they find a massive supply of energy, then die back as that energy is consumed.

The same adaptations that allow us to surive when energy is scarce cause us to blow ourselves up when energy is abundant.

Some of us will survive this to continue on, and the human race will be better for it.  But it will be very painful.

The thing to watch out for is the people who want to decide who lives and who dies.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:13 | 1125147 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

Very well said PB. The energy bubble has definitely ruptured.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:36 | 1125046 MiningJunkie
MiningJunkie's picture

Never underestimate the replacement power of STOCKS within an inflationary Zimbabwe-fest. Print, monetize, lie, deceive, pump, and watch the glory of being a shareholder in America manifest itself.

BUY THE DIP and retire happily!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:00 | 1125779 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

It makes sense. After all, this is the United Corporations of Amercia! Maybe that the master plan of the fed.  Run the stock market up to 20,000.

First on these BS pomo's

Next by crashing the dollar and the bound market, proceeds into the stock market.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:39 | 1125057 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

New highs on:



Russell 2000




Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:53 | 1125083 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

too bad you aren't making any money out of the new highs what with a pitiful widows and orphans portfolio of mo and vz. lol, as would bray.

posting risque photos at zh is exactly like your way of investing: look but take no action and live vicariously off the gains and jiggles of others. lol.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1125133 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The Rainbowtrader is Goldilocks, after checking the morning market landscape he puts on whatever emperor robes fit the data and struts about in them here, claiming this is what he called all along. He posts 'retail stock' charts and appears to gloat over them, but never says what his position is in them.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:15 | 1125149 lieutenantjohnchard
lieutenantjohnchard's picture

precisely. sad really. he desperately wants to be a player but fear grips him, not prudence.

if silver and gold rebound and are up for the day the man is going to have a cow.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:19 | 1125373 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

could happen.  the dollar is getting smacked around mightily right now. 

a hocus pocus job number pump sure doesn't last like it used to. 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:00 | 1125288 samsara
samsara's picture

He really is a Remora.

Look up Commensalism.

He's the fish attached to the Shark,  Eating droppings.  Staying out of the way of the teeth, making his living. 

Indifference to the prey that the sharks feed on, he's just there to pick up the table scraps from the orgy.

At the risk of repeating myself..

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:13 | 1125140 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Aiy! A Rackosaures Rex! Run for your lives!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:29 | 1125423 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

What, is she walking through Tokyo International?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:47 | 1125975 Agent P
Agent P's picture

Sue Ellen Mischke

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1125067 Horatio Beanblower
Horatio Beanblower's picture

In 15 minutes or so...


"Friday's guest Bernard von NotHaus, founder of NORFED & the Liberty Dollar, on how he came to be known as a "special kind of terrorist" who faces up to 15 years in jail for attempting to create value-based barter. Peter is also looking forward to your calls on politics, finance, and the economy."

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1125076 oogs66
oogs66's picture

Black swan has lost its meaning.  We live in a world where the mass media views the world through such rose colored glasses that anything negative is somehow unexpected and a black swan.  If Ireland defaults it is not a black swan.  Its bad, but anyone in their right mind caught by surprise has just ignored the facts.  Is an earthquake near Tokyo a black swan?  Maybe, but they know they are prone to earthquakes so they build specifically to withstand earthquakes.  So maybe this is a black swan event, but I think its just a negative event that reasonable people should have realized was possible.

We will never see 'white crows' because the entire media and investor community is always on the look out for good news.  Will some accidental discovery lead to a cure for cancer?  Maybe, but its more likely one of the 1000's of companies already getting funding to find it, will find it, and at each stage, all positive news will be overhyped.


In a world where realists are viewed as cynics, we see black swans everywhere, because we as a society are either too lazy or too scared to admit the real risks that exist and attempt to deal with their potential eventuality.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:11 | 1125137 Population Bubble
Population Bubble's picture

The underlying cause is overpopulation.  How do you propose to deal with that?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:56 | 1125266 samsara
samsara's picture

Don't worry about it,  Mother Nature is on the case. 

either that or that small ME country may get that Gene Specific Virus thingy working.....

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:10 | 1125334 Milestones
Milestones's picture

Your conclusion and mine are the same. Popullution is the underlying, overwhelming problem which is the base problem facing the species. Nature or our over zealous idiocy is going to kick in soon. It must if we are to survive. Religion is the 800 pound gorilla that no one dare take on. 

Nevel Shute had it right, Mankind is truly standing" On the Beach" waiting to complete the cycle.     Milestones

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:54 | 1125084 DonutBoy
DonutBoy's picture

I hate it when Newsweek and I think alike.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:57 | 1125097 TradingJoe
TradingJoe's picture

Only black swan happening is FEDsters don't print anymore! Timing? Ask The Benster! Or, trust the "market" to reset itself!

Pigs sitting on a pile of paper profit and no one to "sell" them to, so???? Up we go until some brain dead guy or the FEDsters buy, no dive here folks!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:56 | 1125098 sschu
sschu's picture

It seems like a well documented and thought out article.  Anyone who paints an exact scenario about how all this plays out will certainly be wrong, but IMHO he captures the themes quite well.

It has been a bit insensitive to delve too far into the ramifications of the Japan crisis with all the human suffering underway. 

All the world foundations are collapsing, earthquake in Japan, MENA political strife, China with 64M unoccupied houses, the USG debt issue and EU unsustainability.  Not sure how the world can "fix" these issues without major disruption.  Famine, depression, anger and war will be our future. 


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:38 | 1125224 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

It has been a bit insensitive to delve too far into the ramifications of the Japan crisis...All the world foundations are collapsing...

The insensitivity may be in trying to understand how wide spread the human suffering underway is reaching. The problem is when Japan's radiation reaches another sovereign nation's population, now the insensitivity is directed towards Japan's inability to communicate true and accurate information to at risk foreigners in distant lands.

As for all foundations collapsing, I don't believe so. Structures may be collapsing, but most foundations appear to be holding. The sticks and straw having been used recently for construction are rightly shaking and failing.

As long as our foundation for rightly dispatching failing structures, i.e. uniform laws of bankruptcy, are followed, we will pull out of this funk sooner rather than later.

Start with the fed and it's twin sister, the irs. Restore trust.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:00 | 1125769 sschu
sschu's picture

As long as our foundation for rightly dispatching failing structures, i.e. uniform laws of bankruptcy, are followed, we will pull out of this funk sooner rather than later.

Not sure making the case that the rule of law as a foundational principle for the US still holds.  TBTF, GM, AIG, Fannie, Freddie, MERS, the Fed, QE, as well as limited real prosecutions for law breakers during the financial collapse supports this idea.

Agree that we need to revert to foundational principles, but I would submit we are a long way away as well as heading in the wrong direction.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:58 | 1125106 johny2
johny2's picture


"Commodity price pressures have virtually nothing to do with US monetary policy."



Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:59 | 1125112 SavingsTherapist
SavingsTherapist's picture

The whole world is now waiting and searching for black swans - and made them disappear by doing that. Black Swan 101 says you die of extinct automatically when someone googles you.


Instead we'll get attacked by pink swans with friggin laserbeams attached to their heads.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:06 | 1125120 John McCloy
John McCloy's picture

MSNBC cannot get enough of telling us all right now how Amazing the Democrats are and how 230k jobs growth is tremendous. "Big win for the President" the propagandists are saying. Business analyst on now saying "some inflation can be good". 

Update: He also said that home prices have stabilized and there is no future leg down coming.

No mention yet that B/D model added 50% of these jobs...hmm

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 17:50 | 1126707 tsx500
tsx500's picture

i absolutely cannot watch that station  for more than 2 minutes without vomiting.      i would rather beat off w/ a cheese grater than have to watch MSNBC .

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:26 | 1125173 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

Excellent, thought-provoking article, Mr. Bruno.  As the MSM captures and spins our vernacular, we not only have to be aware of that, but also we have to ensure that we don't get too numb to the world in play, which may affect our focus, thoughts, and speech/writings.  For example, (with the exception of Sheep-Dog 1's comments above), we're not even really talking about POMO much here anymore.  We are all getting numb to it, yet it does remain a really big deal!  There was no POMO today, April Fool's Day (maybe that's the big joke in and of itself), yet no mention - myself included amongst the guilty.  I get the sense we are shrugging our shoulders a bit (as a be clear I'm not knocking the authors on this site who continue to do a great job).  I'm also guilty of getting saturated with the Fukushima nightmare, which also continues to be a really big deal!  So, before I burn anybody out with my dissertation here, let me sum up by requesting that we all be more diligent (myself first) in keeping our attention where it should be, while at the same time helping to inform newbies to this site.    And with a smile I must close with: Attention bitchez!   

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1125176 Guarded Pessimist
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:28 | 1125181 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

"about as stable as a fresh pudding under a heat lamp"    +2.  You can see old Sal Monellal just working his ticket.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:34 | 1125199 mendigo
mendigo's picture

it is impossible for a tyler durdan to explain to a toll collector what is wrong with our global economy - it would be like lassie trying to explain to jimmy that paw had fallen in the well

basically the stock market itself is and always has been a scam (as are "precious" metals) but lots of people make good money at it so what the point in saying so?

aside from knowing that they are corrupt, lying, self-centered, swindlers - people believe that our government and corporate leaders are basically decent ("god fearing") people - deep down. boy are they in for a suprise - we need to get it on video

the info provided by tyler needs to be packaged in a computer animated cartoon so the kids can explain it to thier fat, dolt, BMW SUV driving 'rents

the bolt of lightening that gets you is the one you never hear

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:41 | 1125229 Arseclown
Arseclown's picture

Sorry broski, when you start mentioning the World Trade Centers being brought down by some grand conspiratorial thermite bombs, you lose all credibility (that was in one of the linked articles that the same Mr. Bruno wrote earlier about globalists). 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:48 | 1125243 Humpty Pundit
Humpty Pundit's picture

Yes we have no POMO today bitchez!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:49 | 1125253 Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

Irrational Exuberance versus Apocalyptic Terror and Fear

If you are a trader like me, you like markets shaken, stirred

even terrified, in the grip of volatility and apocalyptic fear.

you want chaos - you want volatility - you want total capitulation

of those lazy long-term investors who thought markets were safe.

There is no safety - there is no certainty except chaos.

The world is an uncertain and dangerous place and markets should reflect that.

Yet the whole financial industry are trying their hardest to

create a positive spin and strong growth curve by any means possible.

However this does not reflect Reality.

This does not reflect real market or market economy in the real world.

Hence the phenomenon of Irrational Exuberance versus Apocalyptic Terror and Fear,

This volatility creates the ideal playing-field for those who like to trade

rather than analyse media-spin.

Apocalyptic chaos rules because life is a bitch and then you die.

so start investing in life-insurance and tsunami-proof graveyards

before it's too late...



Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:15 | 1125360 falak pema
falak pema's picture

best guarantee : a bottle of chardonnay, pinot noir or cabernet; cheese and pata negra or equivalent.  Gold is what gold does. Where it counts.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:17 | 1125568 Natasha Fatale
Natasha Fatale's picture

You had me at chardonnay LOL

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 17:29 | 1126662 SqueekyFromm
SqueekyFromm's picture

OH, I once did a Wine Haiku:

Franzia Rocks!

In its little cardboard box.

Replenish your stocks!


Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 14:04 | 1125790 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

I am Goldman Sachs.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:51 | 1125256 lincolnsteffens
lincolnsteffens's picture

"Oh sinners you better get ready

Oh you better get ready, hallelujah

Sinners you better get ready

Time 's a commin' when the sinners must die


God gave Noah the rainbow sign

Time 's a commin' when the sinners must die

It won't be by water but fire next time

Time 's a commin' when the sinners must die


From an old traditional song. Though it makes reference to the Christian concept of Hell's fire and eternal damnation if world leaders who run amok are not very, very careful it will be hellacious fire on earth.



Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:13 | 1125342 Revolution_star...
Revolution_starts_now's picture

If the media is harping black swan watch for the boiling toad.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:12 | 1125551 honestann
honestann's picture

Black Swan my foot.

Everything being characterized as a "Black Swan" was easily predictable by any honest individual with at least half a brain, and indeed was predicted.  Even the earthquake plus tsunami plus nuclear plant disaster was easily predictable, except the exact time frame.  Given the insane practice of building most reactors on coastlines in well-known earthquake and tsunami zones, and encasing the spent fuel rods in materials known to produce explosive hydrogen gas when they overheat, these events were sure to occur eventually.

I see no Black Swans.  As employed today, the term is a complete scam.  The purpose of the term today is to provide cover for the predators-that-be who caused these problems (elitists in governments, regulatory agencies, central banks, large financial institutions and large corporations).  By pretending these events "were random and unpredictable", they plant the idea in the consciousness of the naive masses that these events were "not their fault".

To which every honest, observant humans says BULLSHIT.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:23 | 1125602 Natasha Fatale
Natasha Fatale's picture

Huh, that's actually a very good point. It's terribly convenient, isn't it, how the concept of the Unknown Unknowns, Black Swans, and so forth have been subversively drilled into us over the past decade.

Something to think about.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:33 | 1125642 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

The problem is that when this kind of terminology hits the mainstream, in most cases it comes prepackaged with dumbed down and diluted definitions which promote an inadequate, cartoonish understanding of the circumstances.

Agreed, and eventually they’ll need to create even more vicious symbolism in hopes of beating their competition for the right to deliver their lame message.  I can imagine there will be black pterodactyls and black fire breathing dragons swooping down on us soon enough. Once their primary goal is to simply gain our attention, identifying the true nature of problems and providing solutions and answers doesn’t matter so much anymore.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:59 | 1125771 Geoff-UK
Geoff-UK's picture

No such thing as a black swan.  Govt printing money like crazy, bankers owning politicians, hyperinflation, etc. has already happened numerous times before.


Even Fukushima was predictable, if you assume the worst motivations in human beings to maximize private profits if the downside will likely be so bad that the Japanese govt will HAVE to bail you out (TEPCO). 


I'm long on guillotine production companies.

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