Guest Post: Migration Of The Black Swans

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Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:24 | 1124987 Golden monkey
Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1125051 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

black is good in obama nation

suing for whiteness

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:46 | 1125075 Judge Judy Scheinlok
Judge Judy Scheinlok's picture

Good grief. If you've ever mistkenly been on Joseph E. Lowery Blvd in Atlanta you'll realize where this movement is headed.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:04 | 1125124 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

I like the Newsweek sub-headline:
"Ho ignorant are you?"
109th and normandy bitch I seen you der

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:34 | 1125194 I Am The Unknow...
I Am The Unknown Comic's picture

"How ignorant are you?"  Duh, I'd have to be ignorant enough to buy their magazine to find out how ignorant I REALLY am.

...and we call this journalism? 

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:35 | 1125213 SilverRhino
SilverRhino's picture

Looks like an attempt for Atlanta to grab some fresh taxbase territory via annexation as soon as these towns' incoporporation is eliminated.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:27 | 1125610 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

Whats NEXT?

Since you ask, Im going all in on the dollar is delvalued/collapses.

A very close second guess, a dirty bomb, on the US homeland, by terriosts of course, just to put all this 911 stuff behind us? What city you ask? Which city has the most finacial records? No idea which city it will be. Maybe they stick a bomb down a oil well of the coast of Califorina. Hello tsumina, good bye LA. And all you half backed Califorinas, will think it is all part of 2012 prophecy.

I expect the feds to capitizize on the publics beliefs about 2012.  Just like they did in 2000.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:35 | 1125658 johnnynaps
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That has been my fear the last 2 weeks. To see how the market is reacting to these catastrophes......I think it is time to expect something dirty from our overlords.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:26 | 1124991 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

while obama rains missile on libya, ben rains dollars - makes perfect sense

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:36 | 1125048 SheepDog-One
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Unfortunately things arent going so well for the 'rebels' (Obama) in Libya, theyre gettin their ass kicked this morning. Now we're going to land 2,000 out for the 1 million AK's and RPG's he's handed out to the people. This will make Iraq look like nothing. Ready for high casualty war? I dont think america is.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:08 | 1125127 long juan silver
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It;s evident that the black swan sighting bar is set waaaay too low.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:17 | 1125160 That Peak Oil Guy
That Peak Oil Guy's picture

Today's black swans are actually white swans that have been irradiated and covered in oil.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:14 | 1125150 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

You kidding me, how many Cicvies even have a clue that we are firing missiles there? How many people in this country don't even watch the news, not even the MSM garbage? I know several that are like this.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1125002 arnoldsimage
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i tell you the truth. we could have a 9.6 quake in L.A., have half of california slip into the pacific and still the dow would explode higher. commercial reits to the moon, baby.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:35 | 1125033 Dr. Engali
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A lot of debt and bad policy would slide into the ocean with it.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:53 | 1125089 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Goldfinger baby!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:19 | 1125163 uhb
uhb's picture

NOPE. The living daylights, bitchez!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:44 | 1125232 philgramm
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if Cali fell off the continent that would be a good reason for the Dow to spike

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:32 | 1125635 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

  The Black Swan arguement is BULLSHIT. Maybe if you looked at it as a flock of Black Swans, that I could buy, but not just one measley sBlack Swan in the subprime market and here is why. When you have, concurrent epic failures across many sectors, such as rating agencies, (Moody's , S&P) regulatory agencies, (CFTC, SEC) mortgage standards, Freddie Mac & Fannie Mae, (the current scape goat) and AIG, not to mention the Black Swan in Subprime ; all at the same time?

Too many black swans>>>> conspiracy

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:36 | 1125664 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

But of course GS and their main client, Paulson could spot these black swans, and each would profit almost$10 billion each on betting against this black swan in the sky.

Ironically, HanK Paulson, former CEO of GS, happened to be very skilled at spotting birds of prey, maybe even balck Swans.

Unfortunetly, Hank was working at the WH at the time.

Why GS, nor their client Paulson never called the WH, to tell Hank Paulson , about this balck swan they spotted in the sky?

My only guess, is that the $10 billion was more important. Everyman has his price.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:38 | 1125217 SilverRhino
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Of course the Dow would rise.   Do you know how many illegal aliens and welfare recipients would be underwater if that happened?  


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:53 | 1125745 In Fed We Trust
In Fed We Trust's picture

In theory, many buildings collaspe > lower supply > REITS through the roof.

But what if you lose many people/ tennats when the buildings collapse? Then the market just might hold steady?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 15:48 | 1126312 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Note that with Japan as the #3 economy, Cali is #7 and that ain't no porkchop. The real Black Swan is when the Big One hits the San Andreas fault, all of North America east of the Sierras will slip into the Atlantic Ocean. Owieee!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1125004 TheObsoleteMan
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Today's definition of black swan: Should the Fed suddenly decide to discontinue QE. Thats what it would take. Anything short of that is just a hiccup.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1125021 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Live by the sword die by the sword. All bad news is great news since that means more FED free money dumps, so good news has to be bad news then. Stop POMO, QE, and raise rates go ahead I dares ya.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:37 | 1125053 treemagnet
treemagnet's picture

POMO et al can't go on forever, all bullshit aside.  When it breaks there'll be no stopping the rush for exits.  But, when?!

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:43 | 1125063 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Could be on a day like today, when the last sideline sitter decides it must be safe to finally get in. Who knows?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:14 | 1125151 throughthewire
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Yes, that's the day that's coming, maybe very, very soon.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:11 | 1125338 Chump
Chump's picture

I'll let y'all know.  Just about the time I decide to try and make a few bucks we go to sub-666, guaranteed.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:30 | 1125006 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL - newsweek, the expert on ignorance

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:59 | 1125110 Cash_is_Trash
Cash_is_Trash's picture

Top of cover:

How ignorant are you?

Joe Sixpack:

What's ignorant?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:10 | 1125134 Ruffcut
Ruffcut's picture

igornance is bliss.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:33 | 1125638 camoes
camoes's picture

What is bliss bitch?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:28 | 1125007 Horatio Beanblower
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LvMI Austrian Scholars Conference 2011 (links to video and audio) -

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:31 | 1125011 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People just dont understand 'black swan' these days. Now its all about nuclear transformer black Rhodans.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:31 | 1125014 Dragline
Dragline's picture

When something like this appears on a mainstream news magazine, it usually means the opposite will happen in the immediate future.  Like when Businessweek said the stock market was dead in 1980.

Long term, all bets are off.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:34 | 1125026 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

The stock market actually has been dead since about 1980.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1125065 Dr. Richard Head
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How was the Debt to GDP level of the US in 1980?  How does it compare to now?

Was there a Euro in 1980?  How about PIIGS in crisis back in 1980?  Coordinated Central Bank ponzi printing madness back then? Unlimited negative interest rates as far as the eye can see and beyond? 

How about the money supply in the 80's? 

While the PPT was in place in the 80's, today's POMO makes them look like pussies.

How many wars was the US in back in the 80's?  I count 5 open, and announced, engagements as of now. 

Where the primary dealers hitting the discount window like a red-headed step child in the 80's?

Inflation adjusted crude oil in 80's? 

1980 $37.42 $99.11 1981 $35.75 $85.82 1982 $31.83 $71.95 1983 $29.08 $63.66 1984 $28.75 $60.34 1985 $26.92 $54.54 1986 $14.44 $28.70 1987 $17.75 $33.05 1988 $14.87 $27.45 1989 $18.33 $32.22

Some people laugh at the "this time is different" talk, but the fact of the matter this time is different as the facts on the ground have greatly erodedbeyond the ponzi run of the 80's, plus the S&L crisis actually saw bank fuckers go to jail by the hundreds. 

Comparing this situation to the 80's should show that we are FUBAR'd and the bag holders in equities, along with public pension holders and social security dependents, are the last bastion of serf paper wealth.  Prepare to see it go bye-bye as this is the last of US domestic wealth. 


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:13 | 1125337 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

High speed deflationary depression for Japan. 

I find it fascinating that those who always assume inflation is contagious, never think the same is true for deflation.  Japan has been leading us down since 1989.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 13:22 | 1125597 Chump
Chump's picture

Wait wait wait wait wait wait wait one second.

Are you basically saying I won't be getting my pension in 25 years?

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 18:13 | 1126762 Matte_Black
Matte_Black's picture

Not to worry. If Fuckishima reaches its full potential you'll be dead.


Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:44 | 1125072 Bubbles...bubbl...
Bubbles...bubbles everywhere's picture

Is it like when Cramer tells everybody to buy gold?



Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:01 | 1125114 yabyum
yabyum's picture

Does anyone really listen to Cramer? I thought he was the guy parents would show their kids how they would sound if they did not take their Ritalin.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:11 | 1125136 long juan silver
long juan silver's picture

Cramer's record is worse than Goldman's.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 11:52 | 1125262 falak pema
falak pema's picture

which Cramer are you talking about...The guy in Seinfeld was slap on the button...he was Groucho's son.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 12:01 | 1125291 Pants McPants
Pants McPants's picture

Actually Bruno makes a similar point when he says MSM will twist catchphrases like this to fit their globalist-friendly agenda.

Tough to argue with that observation.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:33 | 1125023 Bearster
Bearster's picture

The expression "black swan" reveals what's wrong with so-called "science" today (including especially those pretentious fools in the field of economics who think they can predict human behavior just like physicists predict particles of an ideal gas, using differential equations).  In the postmodern "science", all one can do is count and classify things.  So one sees lots of white swans and one can never think about the essence of swanness.  So a black swan is an unprecedented phenomenon, who could possibly have imagined!

So it is with econometric models with their (false) gaussian distributions.  Who could possibly have predicted a stubborn recession and unemployment??  The Austrians, who don't use differential equations but instead look at malinvestment booms and the necessary following busts.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:34 | 1125025 Reptil
Reptil's picture

the point is that "crisis management" is reactive not proactive.

the doomers have a head start on Joe 6 Pack since the consequences, and possible solutions have been examined.

instead of looking at these possible solutions, the powers that be (and their MSM dogs) will use the ensuing panic to reep more benefit (power grab? world government?).

I'm betting on it. There are no "wise men" in control. The system of "elboing your way up" made sure very few are in or even near the top of the pyramid.

Fri, 04/01/2011 - 10:32 | 1125027 BS_Merchant
BS_Merchant's picture

My ADHD stops me from reading articles this long. Can someone summarise?

Should I buy more silver or not?


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