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Guest Post: Mirabile Dictu! The First Market Rally Of 2010 That Merits More Than A Few Words
Guest Post: Mirabile Dictu! The First Market Rally Of 2010 That Merits More Than A Few Words, Submitted by John Bougearel of Structural Logic
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hey i read the G-7 meeting was in a remote town of Iqaluit, population 7,000, in Cananda, and Ben Bernake was there. Do Fed charmains go to G-7 meetings? Just thought that was werird.
Yeah, this one caught my attention, too. They wanted to make perfectly sure there is no large population center near their talks at this point. Looks like the big boys are getting scared. --Boris
Reasons G7 gang chose meeting in Canadian Far North town of Iqaluit near Arctic Circle.
1. Any G7 finance minister who refuses to fall in line with gang can be set adrift on Arctic ice floe.
2. No need to refrigerate vodka. Reduces carbon footprint of G7 meeting.
3. Iqaluit's weekly newspaper, Nunatsiaq News, has no global finance reporter, no economic reporter, no stock market reporter, and no crime reporter.
4. Lisa Gregoire, who worked as a reporter in Iqaluit in the 1990s, said she thinks Iqaluit was chosen to avoid protestors, who won't be able to afford round-trip airfare ranging from $1,500 to $2,300.
5. G7 chose Iqaluit to avoid protestors who would not feel welcome in an area where hunters kill some 35,000 seals annually in the Nunavut Territory.
6. The G7 finance ministers chose Iqaluit to enjoy stress relief rest and relaxation of clubbing baby seals. The G7 finance ministers need to revive their animal spirits so they can return refreshed to continue clubbing taxpayers.
7. The G7 gang chose Iqaluit because the gang is on the run, as reported by last night's America's Most Wanted TV show:
"Tonight we need your help. Interpol warns that the G7 gang has fled into Canada's Far North to plot their next robbery of taxpayers. The heat on this gang is so bad they must meet under cover of 24 hour darkness.
"The G7 is a notorious gang of international money launderers, counterfeiters, loan sharks, Ponzi princes, short changers, three-card Monte operators, turnstile jumpers, pension robbers, widow rapers, and multi-level marketing operators.
"We ask our viewers in the Canadian Arctic to be on the look-out for the G7 gang. But do not approach any of these desperadoes. Hide your women, children, and sled dogs.
"Please be alert for the smell of roast pig. Tips to our hot line say the G7 will feast on roasted PIGS. If you smell roasted PIGS, please phone the Royal Canadian Mounted Police or AMW's hot line. I know I can count on my Inuit friends in the frozen Arctic to do the right thing."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pack-your-parkas-finance-ministers-2010...?
PPT.... they want a little fear but no a big collapse quite yet so people will be more interested in buying our debt in the future...
that's right. they want support for governments - but they want people to fear a long term "cooling off period" and not a deflationary abyss.
methinks they've been WAY too successful in convincing the markets that the next 10 years in the private markets are going to be deflation, depression, liquidation ...
ask and he shall receive
Some TA people like myself have been warning that the bear rally was ending.
The trend is now down.
March 2009 lows won't hold either.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0
What specific TA metrics are telling you that? Honest question.
QQQQ now below 20-week moving average. Excellent long term timing tool.
If you think this was merely a "short-covering rally", you are dreaming. The last hour/1/2 hour/10 minutes rally is the hallmark of the PPT interventions. It is the government (Federal Reserve) intervening in markets by supplying cash to primary dealers, like Goldman Sachs. The first method is by cash gifts to support the market, disguised as "loans" endlessly renewable and at near-zero rates. The second method is through monetization of agency bonds, inducing an influx of cash "liquidity" into the markets. On the afternoon of February 4th, the Federal Reserve bought $12 billion worth of agency mortgage backed securities. On February 5th, the cash was used to pump up falling markets at the end of the day.
You'all do remember when BO "The Bronze Adonis" stated: "It is a good time to buy stocks." At S&P 666. Not so curiously, the market (PPT) responded.
Last week, he announced the jobs bill (spend with reckless abandon.) He now believes that the people believe, that he can move markets.
This narcisissistic belief will be his "Et tu Brute?" moment, (Brute end up beeing his own party.)
Therefore, he will push the market up next week and during the jobs bill announcement. It's all planned. Very dangerous game, I say.
+100
Nothing but Bernanke Bucks at work.
For those who wanted to play a 'bounce' on Friday, the S&P hit the lower bolinger band rail as well as the 38.2 fib retracement level at 104-105 (SPY) from the late June '09 low to the recent high on Jan 15. I agree that there is massive PPT intervention but I think Friday's action was more technically related.
Whoa .... that's really telling it like it is ..... ok now everyone, in their best Mike Meyers character of Wayne's World - shhheyaaahhhhh. Walking on.
World record volume on the Junk Bond ETF on Friday....
They managed to stave off an outright collapse....
Damn that cleavage!
Is there a point when "confidence boosting measures" no longer work? Is there a point when the market wonders why all of these last minute support measures (Dubai, Greece, etc.) are still necessary after all of the trillions of dollars already spent to shore up markets and economies? Is there a moment of collective realization that we are well and truly f**ked and that nothing can stop the coming tsunami? Is there an instant when we all look at each other and say, "I'm getting the hell out of here"?
Are we all so easily satisfied that we'll applaud for the umpteenth time as another truckload of new debt is applied to the latest blowup saving us all from ourselves? What is that marginal piece of debt that suddenly becomes too much to take? When is that one additional dollar or euro or yen of debt coming, that finally makes us realize no one gets out alive? When do we see trust as foolishness and when does confidence turn to panic? Will there be even a second of warning?
@chindit13
I think we can start with 12:17 on Sunday February 7, 2010, the time of your post. As good as any, really.
http://www.news.com.au/business/secret-summit-of-top-bankers/story-e6frfm1i-1225827289543
Any more on this "other" secret meeting? Cisco probably knows if there was a secure webinar session between Iqaluit and Sydney over the weekend.
chindit13 and girl money- Looks like it could be a long weekend with little hope.
Excerpts from Reuters Feb 6, 2010:
"In a statement issued on Saturday after two days of talks by the Group of Seven rich industrialized countries, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he believed Greece would meet tough new targets to rein in its budget gap."We expect and we are confident that the Greek government will take all the decisions that will permit it to reach that goal," Trichet said...
"I don't think Trichet's comments will help ease concerns about the euro zone. There is still no concrete plan on the Greek issue," said Boris Schlossberg, Director of FX Research at GFT in New York.
"The other problem is that the G7 has agreed to put a tax on banks, and any type of taxation on the banking sector is going to be viewed negatively by the market. So the net result of all this is not a boost of confidence in the capital market. We may see a little more turbulence going forward. Overall, the G7 meeting, instead of reassuring the market may have simply created more angst."
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE61457A20100206?
Then this message from Euroland: it's nobody's business but us Euros. Us Euros are not ragging on California, so butt out of our business on Greece.
Excerpts from WSJ online, Feb 6 2010.
"European members of the Group of Seven nations told their counterparts that budget problems in Greece are "no matter" for the International Monetary Fund, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said Saturday.
"Speaking to reporters at the end of a meeting with top G-7 financial officials, Schaeuble said there was "no doubt" that the euro-zone members oppose any outside involvement in helping Greece to solve its problems.
"All our partners outside the euro zone have the firm impression that the Europeans will solve the problem and can deal with it and that we are aware of the problem," Schaeuble said. "But we have strongly and unanimously refused to discuss internal problems." To make that point, he added that Europe isn't discussing problems occurring in the U.S. state of California either."
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100206-700683.html?
Nope, not even a mila-second.
Yes, there are times, most recently when investor confidence swooned below the Jan 26 2010 low at 1086. When the market plunges below a key consumer confidence low, you have a potential crisis of investor confidence.
We are in that crisis now and will remain their until the SP500 can close above 1086.
you explain it well my brother.
"I'm getting the hell out of here"?
Structural Logic?? I think they mean Structural Horseshit!
Pieces like this contrived, bloviating, mumbo-jumbo have no place at Zero Hedge. ZH blew this one, and I hope you nix anymore of SL's "think pieces"...Yeecccchhh!
Mr. Freeman, your comment appears to be the outlier on this collection of posts. Can you please expand on what portions of Structural Logic's article you find so obstructive to your pursuit of the truth behind our Friday Miracle?
Sure. The comments are speculations on Friday's action--big deal, that's why people come here. My problem is with SL's guest post itself, which I made clear.
So, let me ask you: did you find SL's post insightful? Because, where I come from, arguing both sides of an argument, refusing to put your money where your mouth is, while still trying to cop the intellectual high ground, is known as crap.
Clear it up some?
Amen, GF
Mr. Freeman, thank you so much for your response and clarification.
MOST articles written by investment research firms have a generous sprinkling of waffle crumbs, so they've got their bums covered no matter which way the market swings. Totally agree with you on that.
What made me take notice was the author's admission, "Now, I really don’t care which models play out near term." The "not caring" state of mind is the proper mind set for a unemotional and robust hedging strategy.
Insight 1-- the analysis of S&P moves based on events, mixed with some charting to estimate top and bottom trading ranges at the time the event occurs. The author chose the NFP reports, but there are many other events to test out this strategy.
Insight 2 -- the strategy of comparing the strength of various rallies in light of significant and persistent market headwinds. I would probably add some brackets to the chart provided, and note the market's reaction when a headwind dissipated or strengthened.
Again, thanks so much for the reply.
Ya Know,
We need a few more acronyms and we could solve this problem:
EDC (Efficient Deployment of Capital) As in if your investment philosophy has one.
LPT (Lamp post Termination) As in the sudden negation of parasitic stock manipulations.
LUB (Lying Useless Bastards) As in those who produce false positive and false negative feedback for personal gain.
Thus we have: LUB over LPT = EDC
This equation will be used by Judges in the future, after they ask the question? "What did you do other than manipulate paper in an attempt to enrich yourself?"
it doesn't matter to the bigs, they need volume. a boring market is bad for transactions numbers. up down sideways, whatever is best for gs & jpm is what will happen.
@buzz, agreed. this is the bigs world.
Wall of Money, Part Deux, as the US Govt and the banksters continue their pas de deux. Understand totally that we never get a ticket to the show, nor are we even allowed to ask if it exists.
All you need to know is that everything is broke!
Market Notes: Smoke - Feb 7 2010
http://inpoints.blogspot.com/2010/02/market-notes-smoke-feb-7-2010.html
A secret meeting of the elites (still got leaked out) following a week of asset losses, and the miraculous manipulated save late Friday...Hmmm. Smells fishy.
All the stimulus they threw at the problem--and nothing has changed. They are surely in panic mode by now.
This article makes much of Friday's intraday low of 1041 and that number's significance. Not trying split hairs, but the S&P never reached that level, per CNBC, MarketWatch and StockCharts, the day's low was 1044.50. Happened to be well aware since was my intention to sell some Ultrashorts AT 1041, and never hit it!
And to think that investors are "worried" about Greece and markets plumetting,is like saying that investors don't have brains(may be they don't after all). What about somebody saying "the market don't worth its price,and real investors are not buying",w. Wouldn't that be closer to the truth?since when selling a 40x p/e or more company,was about Greece?. And what would BB has to offer?I guess only more control over other cbs and another round of dollar depreciation for a next leg up?. Since about Nov I think that was the only factor that kept pushing markets up;carry trade. And when the reversal came in the dollar,markets collapsed. So how much more GS and JPM needs in profit,for them to go back to another round of carry trade?. And since we know who BB work for,when the rest of cbs around the world will put a stop to the continued blackmail,and say "let markets find equilibrium on their own". Because just as the Swiss central bank finds rather the hard way,that no matter how many times it intervens,the Swiss Franc goes back to its equilibrium level,all markets will eventually finds out their real value. But it will only be after all retirement funds has been transferred to somebody else...
turn this knob, pull that lever used to work, not so much anymore.
The Greek Collapse is only the beginning and not the end of the trouble for the Euro and other worthles currencies. Those who do not heed warnings will add material poverty to their spiritual poverty
http://funy1.blogspot.com/