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Guest Post: New Kitco DEM Page Lets Rumors About Germany Abandoning the Euro Fly
Submitted by The Prudent Investor
A web page of precious metals prices provider Kitco.com
has sparked rumors that Germany will leave the Eurozone and reintroduce
German Marks, sending gold to a new record of $1,244 and silver to a
multi-year high of $19.64.
It is this half-ready page shown below that has created excitement as it lists precious metals in Deutschmark units.
German website Silber.de had another market-sparkling comment from a forum participant who said goldprice.org has reintroduced a DEM option since about a week. Check it out here.
And
there is still more material feeding the rumour. German leftist
politician Gregor Gysi announced on TV that there may be an important
announcement to be made on Friday. The video below is in German.
In a literal translation Gysi did not say that Germany will
reintroduce the Mark but made a curiosity-inspiring statement, saying
that there may be some very important news that will be announced on
Friday.
The hottest trail can be found at website godlikeproductions.com. A poster
claiming to be an employee of Deutsche Bank wrote that the bank
received a container full with new German Marks banknotes and coins.
He wrote he will publish a picture of the new Marks on Thursday
morning. He also said the currency change would happen this weekend
with German chancellor Angela Merkel scheduled to give a speech to the
nation on Friday evening.
claiming to be an employee of Deutsche Bank wrote that the bank
received a container full with new German Marks banknotes and coins.
He wrote he will publish a picture of the new Marks on Thursday
morning. He also said the currency change would happen this weekend
with German chancellor Angela Merkel scheduled to give a speech to the
nation on Friday evening.
As we see the rapid destruction of
the next fiat currency - all of them have failed in the past 3
centuries - rocketing precious metals prices prove once more there is
no other safe haven when the going gets really tough.
the next fiat currency - all of them have failed in the past 3
centuries - rocketing precious metals prices prove once more there is
no other safe haven when the going gets really tough.
»
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A sane individual probably would take DM if they were available. Germany makes a lot of great stuff. If someone wanted to buy that stuff, they'd probably have to acquire DM to do it. If Germany left the euro, France would be sure to follow as they are the largest trading partner. The game theory here is that the largest net exporter has the greatest leverage in choosing the next currency.
This rumor is probably a little out there. But I think the euro could be fragile enough to where a rumor could send the bloc into collapse. A fair question that may be going through people's minds right now may be "Is this really going to be the currency in 10 years?" And if the answer to that question is "no". Then 10 year euro bonds are effectively worthless.
Don't know where your translation concludes that "" there may be some very important news that will be announced on Friday....."".
If my translation is anything to go by, he is making an allusion to the previous Friday, and that he has no idea what may be happening this coming Friday. Ambitious reporters could look into the German political scene to find out what they were talking about last week. Other than the typical ACTION NOW!! freak-out after a market sell-off, and regional elections in NRW....
It is a real stretch to speculate on anything else.
See my post up top.
That is just total Bullshit! Gysi is talking like he always does... "i dont know what happening next friday, but somethings going to happen".... come on kids, what do you think does that mean?! ...NOTHING, its political air...
They should re-introduce the Reichsmark instead.
godlikeproductions??? wtf?
I never thought I'd see the day where ZH would link to that wacko site. Damn, maybe the world really is ending. :-)
Fervor!
ZH links to CNBC, Bloomberg and many other whacko sites.
Now that would make for an exciting Friday....but I'll believe it when it happens.
Have the printing presses already been ordered in December 2009 from “Ruhlamat”: biggest order of money printing presses in the history of the company which employs around 230 people:
http://magazin.am-finanzplatz.de/aktuelles/grossauftrag-14-anlagen-zur-b...
Or what do you do with 14 new money printing presses?
Edit: no IQ test captcha this time?
"Or what do you do with 14 new money printing presses?"
Dont try to be too clever, all right? No one knows what to do with 14 new printing presses. Except Uncle Ben, of course! ;p
Don't get ridiculous. If something would happen to the EMU, it would be the PIIGS leaving, not the other way around. Also, I wouldn't pin too much importance to what a former Stasi co-worker says about Germany leaving the Euro...
Just maybe this gives Kitco's Senior Analyst John Nadler (a perma gold bear) a graceful exit.
He can claim he's been bearish gold in terms of d-marks for the last 10 years; since he's pretty much been dead-@ss wrong versus every other major currency for a decade.
No way they will bring back the Mark until the SHTF. Didn't they just do something big to support the Euro? Scheise!
Earth to Pimp Juice: The S is H'ing the F .
Over and Out.
Let's see if that makes sense. Germany leaves the EMU, EUR crashes, new DM soars. They repay existing EUR debt in very favorable term VS EUR/DM, then a few years later, they can re-join the EMU if they want to. Their economy would suffer a bit from a recession in the EMU but maybe they calculate that staying is not the better option. Looks like a masterpiece to me. The Germans politicians would be heroes if they pull this off. Better than bailing out PIIGS.
Okay, I watched the German clip and I think you guys misinterpreting that statement. When the guy said that we'll probably talk again next Friday is was more of a sarcastic remark as he has little confidence in how the political process limbs behind the 'evil speculators'. Anyway, nothing to see here - moving on.
This would be the equivalent of a declaration of war. I don't believe this for a split second.
Not at all.
Speaking of rumors, I heard the words Zero and Hedge were uttered on Boob Bergs yesterday. Joe, rules 1 and 2!
That move would make too much sense, thus why I believe the German politicians would never make it.
Germany leaving the Euro unilaterally would imply:
1. greater level of self-determination of the Federal Government vis-à-vis the US, France and the UK than what there is today
2. greater accountability of German politicians vis-à-vis their domestic constituencies
3. greater independence of German politicians vis-à-vis the Banks
4. Germany-first type of politicians, which at the Federal Level simply are not admitted.
Germany will not leave the Euro before the German people has stormed and burned a representative number of Federal Buildings to the ground.
This rumor sounds like wishful thinking or disinformation.
It would first and foremost mean the new deutsche mark sky-rocket, export plummet and Germany going back to recession with 10+ % unemplyement. Oh, and dont forget about german banks 500bn EUR exposure to Club Med. They could kiss good-bye to them. Not gonna happen.
Kaiten the Germans in general are not always as rational as they like to project - there is a small possibility that they really have had enough of us feckless Med / Irish types.
If I was going to go that far I would push the envelope a bit further and go to a gold backed currency with trade tariffs - after all I think Germany has just become a small food exporter now.
They could internalise their economy but the short to medium term cost would be huge.
They would have to be prepared to take a huge drop in their standard of living at least for a decade or so.
Of course there´s a possibility of germans leaving the eurozone, but only if emotions prevail the reason. Because costs of leaving would be much higher than the costs of trying to fix the problems(in eurozone). Anyway, I agree with your ideas of gold-backed currency, some trade tariffs and restrictions on capital movement. I think we should first try a closer european cooperation before we throw away everything that was achieved in last decades. We now compete with 1,3 billion China and 1,2 bilion India and it´s way too much challenging even for germans with their excellent manufacturing, and so I think it´s good for them too, to have a strong base at home. And the bigger the "home" is, the better.
And by the way, I´m not mediterranean, I´m from central Europe(Slovakia) ;p
The forces that are pushing Europe are similar to a certain extent to the forces working in past centuries to bind regions and fiefdoms together into nation states.
Outside forces.
If the present energy dynamic persists it will destroy globalism and favour regionalism and strengthen the EU.
Manufacturing industries will expand in Central Europe and wither in its periphery.
If things deteriorate further then we will be back to nation states.
Yes, exactly. And this time the outside forces are stronger than Europe, so I think it´s better to stick together than going alone.
But I agree. If the crisis goes on for too long and too deep, than it´s quite possible that EU disintagrates.
okay wait.....really? You ACTUALLY just cited Godlike Productions as a source of corraborating and supporting details and evidence? When instead you should have said "Oh shit. GLP is on it. nevermind. delete that page before anyone with half a brain sees it."
I was reading ZH last year when all the fema camps were supposed to open, and then when planetx X was supposed to appear and destroy our governments. I didnt see anyone here jump on that bandwagon...did I miss something?
Please, please, please! The German politicians aren't that stupid!
The play is for Merkel and others to make deafening noise about DM2.0 in order to make political hay at home and abroad in order to negotiate an advantageous outcome.
A latter day night of the long knives to kill the Euro is just not gonna happen!
Of c i hope our politicians will do it but i can't imagine it. In my eyes they're are so tied to the EU that leaving now would be too much of a confession that they failed. But I agree also that people around here would be very happy to see a DM comeback. Theres public holiday tomorrow in Germany maybe it's time to gather some drunk fathers and hold up some signs in front of the Kanzleramt tomorrow.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7594859...
Germany has no intention for economic suicide it depends as the 3 biggest exporter mostly on EU countries. Reintroduction of DM would let the EURO crash and products very expensive. The stock crash would rather make the other declare WW3 and definetely stop buying German. Also by pure logistic means the time to decide to execute in German terms is rather not sufficent at all to comply. Plus the laws and contracts give no such option as a big majority like a change of constitution - this is not an issue the chancelor can decide might even be opted for a referendum I assume. Plus German banks are heavily invested in PIIGS and would not survive the losses such a move would trigger.This is rather the work of HFs trying to push the short Euro book.
+1 on the porn picture, this IS a good site and it makes it harder to be taken seriously. My 2 cents.
Total Bullcrap. The Fed is not going to go out, buy $400 billion in Euro denominated assets then watch Germany revalue the currency 5 days later.
This is just a game to stir the pot for someone's trade in my honest opinion.
If I may be so bold and speak for Ireland - bring it on.
"Germany is the fourth-largest purchaser of Irish products after the United Kingdom, the United States and Belgium. Germany ranks fourth overall among Ireland’s international trading partners in terms of both imports and exports.
According to Ireland’s Central Statistics Office (CSO), in 2009 Ireland exported to Germany goods worth EUR 4.8 billion (2008: EUR 6.1 billion), while German exports to Ireland in 2009 amounted to EUR 3 billion (2008: EUR 4.6 billion)".
We need to continue and expand our exports and continue to increase our trade surplus and if Germany wants out we will gladly take their Deutschmarks.
I agree. BS-- Checked the internet wayback machine and thats been there for several years. Go tand look.
Move on.
Does the IMF meeting in Switzerland the other day fit into this somehow? I thought there might be an imminent announcement of a PM based currency link, not necessarily a new DM.
If Germany were to revert to the Deutchmark and abandon the Euro, the whole currency would collapse. Germany is a huge part of teh strength right now and to leave the monetary union would have disastrous consequences.
Gysi is an extreme leftwing, neo-communist...
An interesting rumor. That arrives in parallel with another rumor that the Fed is running out the long cannon; huge swap lines deep into the EU.
I was wondering aloud yesterday if the Fed is trying to rope in the Eu banks and the ECB via rescue. One central bank to rule them all, as it were. Perhaps the Germans are thinking exactly the same way, and won't be having with any of that.
It has been said recently that economic warfare is just that ... warfare. And that economic wars frequently (always?) lead to shooting wars if they run too long. If trade war is the legitimate child of the current monetary board game, then perhaps the way to avoid the dreaded stepchild -- WW3 -- is for someone to decisively win the first battle, or else leave the field.
If this is the German fear -- and the DM their forward position and bulwark in the face of attack -- then we must wish them all the luck and pluck they can muster. Because I don't want to wake up some fine day to a red dawn and our sons called to war for the sake of the UST and Goldman Sachs.
Cougar the German/ Russian relationship is key to any possible divorce from the dollar system.
Have they really forgotten everything ? - perhaps yes as all that could remember are dead and retired.
I have my doubts that the population have the stomach for a fight as they have been successfully liberalised under the post war education system.
America has done what the rest of Europe had thought impossible for 2000 years - you have turned a warrior nation / Tribes into a collection of hippies !
The European Union has always been a political conceit. It grew out of the ashes of World War II, which had devastated the European continent. The initial construct was the European Coal and Steel Community, founded in 1951 by the Treaty of Paris, whose purpose was to create a common market for coal and steel. The aim was to make another war between France and Germany impossible. In the words of Monnet, the French architect of the agreement, the plan was to make war not only unthinkable, but materially impossible, by Europeanising the coal and steel producing areas of Germany, the Ruhr and Saar valleys. It is important to understand the tempestuous furnace in which the European ideal was forged.
As the years have passed, the founders of Europe, who passionately believed in European integration as a means of preventing further wars, have left the scene. There inheritance has been assumed by men and women who have no knowledge of the horrors of war, but were seduced by the power and influence that the European institutions afforded them.
They have pushed the Federal European agenda far beyond where the populations of their constituent states wanted to go. In countries where referendums were permitted, often the result was a resounding “no” to further integration. The result was not accepted by the European elites, and these countries were asked to vote time and again, until an acceptable answer was given.
Because they were aware that the populations of the nations over which they ruled were less than enthusiastic to their agenda for full European integration, the European elites have proceeded with a policy of dissembling and deceit, always trying to hide their true motivation. The introduction of the Euro was typical of this process. Ideally, the European elites would have liked to have established a central treasury with common European bonds and a common European fiscal policy at the outset. Politically that was impossible. But rather than waiting until such time as it would be possible, such was their arrogance, they introduced the Euro without any of these mechanisms, hoping that over time, the strategy that they had conducted so successfully would again work, and allow them to acquire these elements surreptitiously.
Events have now overtaken them, and the weaknesses of a common currency without a common treasury have been revealed. There are now only two options open to Europe. Either a true European Federal state is created, with the member countries agreeing to surrender their treasury and fiscal functions to a central European authority, or the Euro disintegrates back to its constituent currencies. Whilst I should be surprised if Germany were to wish to go for the latter option, if it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well It were done quickly, so maybe this story is not so far fetched.The immortal words of Winston Churchill may well apply to the Euro."I've lived too long. I'm in the ruck. I've drunk too deeply of the cup. I cannot spend, I cannot fuck, I'm down and out. I'm buggered up."
It would explain the rise in Gold:
Euro's go into Gold and later into Deutschmarks, thereby escaping the massive collapse of the Euro. This would be a perfect example of Gold's utility.
Well, wouldn't the thing to do be a gradual re-introduction of Marks in parallel with Euros for a year or two? Kind of the reverse of the way the Euro was introduced?
Just to keep track, Gisele Bundchen (supermodel, Tom Brady's wife) issued her famous "pay me only in Euros demand" Nov 2007 with EUR:USD at 1.43. She was late in that trade. Being Brazilian (and Brazilian women are so HOT), she should have stuck with her local currency, the Real. Would have been fine.
Darned supermodel forex traders.
LOL. I've frequently thought of Ms. Bundchen's comment as I built my short position in euro over the past several months.
I was amused at the time how much play that quote got in the financial press and how it seemed to reinforce the thinking of so many real players in the FX market: The dollar is in decline as the sole global reserve currency (I don't disagree with this part) and the euro is in ascension as the next global reserve currency...
What a bunch of maroons for taking investment/trade advice from a supermodel.
Those rumours are posted on Austrian website Hartgeld.com too. http://213.145.232.18/Waehrungsreform-DE.html leads directly to the page reporting rumours and observations supporting a re-introduction of the Euro.
There are way more letters to the editor pointing out suspect money transports, lately a kitchen for an university stocking up on food until the storage bursts, "DM" and exchange rate in sales receipts and so on.
Another strange coincidence: German websites reporting rumours of the new DM were offline today for a while. DOS attacks, DNS server problems in that specific area few days before the rumoured date??
I did not really believe this, so I looked around a bit to learn more. (Maybe our German posters could assist with real translations).
My first question was - why would going back to DM be a way to go? Found this posted on posted 19-04-2010. Answered that pretty well.
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/amerman/2010/0419.html
Anything to back it up? Found this innocent little observation posted on 06-04-2010.
http://www.gutefrage.net/frage/die-bundesdruckerei-soll-angeblich-wieder-die-dm-drucken-was-ist-dran
It describes a person who visited the Parliament and had coffee in the cafe and overheard some politicians at the next table talk about that the Federal Money Press in Leipzig had started printing Deutch Marks again.
And this one asks the same question. Posted on 23-02-2010.
http://www.wemepes.ch/pdf/neue_deutsche_mark.pdf
This link wondered how something like this could be pulled off regarding the logistics of bank-updates etc.
Then I remembered something about the October Surprise thread, where loads of banks were software updated all at once in October 2009 - particularly 24. October 2009 but also other following weeks.
http://articlesofinterest-kelley.blogspot.com/2009/10/banks-and-october-surprise.html
Link published 17-11-2009
Comments from the German site linked in Tylers post suggests that the decision to come up with a backup plan was made back made in summer 2009.
This was a secret between Germany, USA, France an Russia. They decided on a secret meeting in Geneve (Swiss) last summer.
Other copies from the thread:
Anonymous Coward (OP), User ID: 964812
The German Bundesbank have printed the new Deutsche Mark notes since October 2009.
Maik, User ID: 968172
French Franc appeared on the NYSE in March, was it a test?
Can any ZH'ers confirm this observation?
Cashcow, User ID: 968220
I'm from Germany and belive, this story is true in full.
We noticed the last few days that the €-sign dissapeared in stores, as well on price boards as at the most bills. The sign is suddenly gone nearly completely.
Further I noticed since roundabout two weeks that the euros that came out of the bank terminal all start with serial numbers that begin with X (Germany)- exept the 5 Euro bills which now all come from Luxemburg. We belive this is thought to ease a currency change and that only Euros with the X will be changeable in Marks.
Anonymous Coward, User ID: 968311
This for example is 20 euro note with a T on it at the beginning. But all Notes I got in the last week, and I have computer Shop in the City in Essen so I get many many notes :D are marked with a X!
Anonymous Coward, User ID: 959891
I don't know about the date the new Marks will be issued, but my best friend is a branch manager in Norderstedt (north metro area of Hamburg) of a national bank office and he agrees with everything else you said. In fact, he told me about the new German Mark notes to be issued more than 3 months ago. Apparently, it's been planned and in the works for many months
Anonymous Coward, User ID: 815112
Not necessarily, perhaps the reason for the 650 bln Euro package is to support the Euro through the crisis of Germany leaving
And off course - the server takedowns.....
Anonymous Coward, User ID: 815112
Massive problems with german DeNIC rootservers cause large parts of ".de"-Domains to be unavailable at the moment! Only 2 out of 6 are still working.
indication from well connected person......
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/opinion/28iht-edbuhrow.html?ref=global
Posted 27-04-2010, Author newsanchor on ARD.
And some commenters speculate that the takedown last week of the stocks were a scaretactic of some kind.
I don't know, but some of the commentators certainly gave fruit for thought. Maybe there is meat on this bone afterall.
Thanks for the sleuthing DOTT.
You are welcome AN. I really don't know what to think about this, but I am quite worried.
The euro thread off course did also present page after page of "your are a crackpot" or "moron" comments by people that do not believe the rumor, and felt an urge to put other commenters down. Which makes you wonder even more, when the opposition to a rumor is so ferocious.
BTW Thank you for your "cleaning avatar effort" in the other thread. I appreciated that.
Seriously, though, shouldn't basket cases like Greece just be tossed out of the EMU?
Let them default now, bail out the bond holders (the banks), and move on.
Then Greeks will have no one to blame but themselves. Although really Greece is just the most conspicuous example of where all Socialist Democracies are headed: insolvency.
It's not the end of the world of course, but when you have so many countries large and small with crippling fiscal problems, there's going to be a crisis or two along the way until things get on firmer footing.
Europe will never be one country -it is a continent, one hundred tribes!
The Euro is doomed. The French are like Fredo in the Godfather, the stoopid, irresponsible, out-of-their-depth kid brother in the German family business. At some point they just are too much of a dumb nuisance, and get cut loose. (The French and their Banks are the real problem.) So maybe it is the Germans who leave the Euro.
If instead the Greeks drop out and start producing drachmas on recycled paper, there is a chance that the main currency will survive, and maybe everyone wakes up to the gravity of the situation; but obviously they have chosen to resist such an option..........
Je suis desoleyyy~
Lots of speculating on the cost to the Germans if they abandon the Euro.
What's it ultimately going to cost them to stay in it?
They abandon the good ship Lollypop, oops, I mean the Euro, and they lose big...
OR, they stay in and spend everything they've got bailing out their neighbors, for who knows how long, and the ship might still sink anyway.
Two options, one bad, one worse. Damned if I know which is which.
The Kitco page is probably a leftover from the pre-euro time. Kitco has been online since 1995 and the images used on that page look a bit dated IMO.
Here's a clue. This is in the pages source code:
<!-- Commented for 30th Anniversary<td><img src="/images/kitco_sign_beige.gif" width="42" height="40" alt="Kitco" border="0">
From the "about us" page:
"Since 1977,Kitco has earned a reputation as one of the world’s premier retailers of precious metals."
1977+30 = 2007
So the comment was put in in 2007?
Yes, but the page may not be that old. Programmers are lazy, they use copy/paste more than everybody else on the planet.
The active EUR quote page looks the same. Vintage look or not.
Arrghh. Smell that! Me thinks I smell panic.
And here it is - "I told you so" - from a year and a half ago - originally I posted it January 2009, then reposted it February 2010 - "Is EU going to break up" I was probably too optimistic giving the EU another 10 years
Updated DOW charts showing recent buying support:
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/latest-market-outlook-0
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Man oh man, if Germany was to do that, they'd kill their economy. They need an entire breakdown, or the hopes that their exit would lead to one for the Euro. If the U.S., Japan, U.K., and Euro are all in the devaluation race to 0, Germany would be crushed by two things. One everyone would pour into the mark, causing it to go to say 3:1 with the dollar in a relatively short manner. That would be great for their exports if you like exporting 1/5-2/5th of what you used to. The 2nd thing is obviously with everyone else devaluating would make the mark stronger by default. Hell I could even see a gold dip because of the outflows from gold to the mark. But then again how that plays when the 100x metals market implodes would be interesting.
What a mess. Dammed if you do, Dammed if you don't. So let's focus on doing what we REALLY need to do. Then throw those damn fools in prison for the crimes they committed.
not big on conspiracies;-)
if there is any truth to this reform then some damage-control firm is doing a glorius job of hiding hessian labor troubles and they will be rioting in Vienna fairly soon
r
"The exchange is now caught up in mining companies, and mining, as my experience teaches, is the last act of the drama."
~ Ludwig Bamberger - 1873
p.s. is the house of windsor speaking english yet?
Hey R,
How you enjoying the market after we hit 3800? Oh wait...
Just a sad sad woman...
i guess we'll see how much stimulus [crisis-funding] can keep it from happening;-)
-
don't be sad.. the crisis probably isn't over
r
On the one hand the CHF has tracked the Euro but that is now breaking down. On the other hand the CHF historically was valued because of Switzerland’s gold backing, which is now history.
So, which is it? if the Euro goes down the tubes money will flee to Switzerland for safety. Or the Swiss franc will tank too because its GDP depends mostly on the Eurozone?
In or out of the Franc?
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