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Submitted by Keyser Soze
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Turkey will end up going with the Russian missile defense system.
Tendering for the system ends on the 13th of Oct.
War at some point in time has been on my personal forecast list for some time. Your work is beginning to crystallize when & where it might occur. It seems every US President must have the obligatory war in their tenure. Thanks!
War is often used to distract a population from its own financial or social problems and to avert attention from failed leadership to internal or external threats, real or otherwise manufactured.
In fact, the trigger for the war is almost always created to suit the need and is usually a false flag attack of some sort.
The short-attention-span populace has been distracted enough from true reform in finance through the no-doubt Wall Street - financed nth run at reform in Health Care and the related War on Taxable and Discretionary Income. Now that the Healthiness debate (as in Truthiness) is coming to rotten fruition and a likely dead man's vote will result ("uh, we don't really think health care it a vital concern anymore but we'll vote for it because Teddy would have wanted it"), all we have left is war.
I've always said that the US Dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States plus the most powerful navy, air force, and modern army the world has known. Faith & credit have been securitized and discredited and discounted. All we have left is guns & butter.
so ...
Give War a Chance (to quote PJ)
+10
How would the iPod generation respond to a truly major war?
Prediction: We'll have an Anti-War resistance movement and related social unrest that will make the vaunted 60's look like a children's tea party.
Make their day, Obama.
War: Now we know what it's good for.
Selling lots of t-bills, say it again! Whuaaa!
So, if the United States of Israel decides to invade Iran, what stocks do you recommend?
short ones
Very short ones. Maybe a side order of West Texas.
Foodstocks
To wage a successful campaign, you need carriers. Where exactly are the carriers?
soon to be at the bottom of the straight of hormuz ... nyuk nyuk
nyuk nyuk indeed,
hopefully our global trading partner in the far east hasn't secretly sold their carrier-killer ballistic missile that they just recently successfully tested to our friends the Iranians.
http://www.military.com/news/article/April-2009/new-concerns-over-chines...
http://warisboring.com/?p=1877
Even the ancient Exocet is a real threat to ships.
The navy is like knights; first the rabble invented the crossbow (exocet) then they went on to create not only the musket but also the Lee Enfield .301 which is where the state-of-the art is in relation to the soon-to-be extinct knight in shining armour!
The western navies have, perhaps wisely, not engaged anyone capable of shooting back since the middle of WW2!!
PM, I posted on this subject only to catch your attention.
Have you seen this info on H1N1?
Dr. Leonard G. Horowitz and Sherri Kane, an investigative journalist, have released evidence in legal affidavits that leaders of a private global biotechnology “trust” are behind the pandemic flu, including its origin and alleged prevention via vaccinations. Their documents, being sent by attorneys to the FBI this week, evidence industrialists are operating a crime ring within the “Partnership for New York City” (PNYC), and are behind the pandemic’s creation, media persuasions, vaccination preparations, and health official promotions.
Scroll down to see the actual affidavit.
http://www.fluscam.com/Affidavit.html
could that be one reason why ceo of rock and co suicided?
Nice job on connecting the dots! I am still reeling from the affidavit exposing the Rockafeller agenda! This is just the tip of the iceberg!
You mind reader! No fair :)
please...the intro reads like a bad Jerry Springer show. The 'affidavit' is unsigned, not complete. But those click thru's for products sure are tempting! Did some just scream FIRE in the theater.
You mean those things that simply CANNOT move one inch without the ENTIRE WORLD knowing they are moving?
Nah, just pretend they carry timber and somehow fell in the hands of pirates in the Baltic sea. I'm sure noone will ever suspect anything.
Pull a Down Periscope (1996). Dress the carrier up as a cruise ship and put everone on deck playing shuffleboard. LOL
Carriers are the most vulnerable aspect of the US Naval war machine. Do a little reading on some of the missiles freely available on the market that can severely damage a carrier with one strike and sink it with 2-3 strikes.
The US and the rest of the world have known for decades of these vulnerabilities. Both the Russians and the Chinese sell very effective missiles for exactly this type of situation.
The Persian Gulf is a particularly bad place to station our carriers and the US knows this. Unless of course you want to rally the troops and nation around a sunken carrier.
Remember the Maine.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8262259.stm
Someone just hit the hurry tab.
If I am not mistaken China holds the note on our carrier fleet. You would think this would dissuade them from helping to destroy it.
My speculation is #2.
Let them buy the stuff up, in time of emergency we can just confiscate it. No problem!
You do know they halted the Gateway project for a pipeline from alberta to the BC coast a couple years ago eh?
Keyser, glad to see you have written an article! I agree, the whole Iran thing is once again reaching a fever pitch in terms of MSM articles. . . if only one could have been a fly on the wall at the meeting of Netanyahu and Putin. . .
What was also interesting is that Obama cancelled the interceptor systems in Poland and Czech Republic (which were obviously for Russian missiles, not Iranian ones).
We are now treading water in this wonderful fake economic recovery, absent a catalyzing event, such as "a new pearl harbor" -- to use the immortal words of PNAC from their September 2000 report Rebuilding America's Defenses
"if only one could have been a fly on the wall at the meeting of Netanyahu and Putin.
absolutely!
something like this?....N'hu confirms the action, gives timeframe. reminds Putin that he is really going to be ringing the oil register and may want to get all his money from Iran for those surface to air systems asap.
looks like the u.s. and russia got some love going on....eastern eur. missile defense shield in exchange for Russia staying out of the way and collecting some serious oil coin. did the u.s. get some assurances from Russia that we don't get boned on the oil supply/cost?
seems to me that russia has gotta be loving the prospect of the israelis taking out the iran leadership.
and the chinese? they want the oil.
War is certainly baked into the stock market, perhaps Obama will declare one during his Leno appearance. Jay can crack a few jokes, Obama can chuckle for the camera.
Israel sends Iran's nuk sites to Allah, Russia and Jimmy Carter are outraged, but do nothing, people power in Iran overthrows the mullahs and we at home get Obamacare!
Tehran is sounding better and better.
My prediction is that Ahmadinejad doesn't live to see the new year.
Would be a "convenient" way to trigger inflation & help to cure that pesky debt problem?
God, this place is turning into UFO central.
Obama won't invade because he has no backbone - just rhetoric, Israel wont do anything because of exactly the same reason!
You obviously don't understand the Israeli mindset.
are you doing your best imitation of a fucktard?
obama doesn't need the backbone - that is precisely
why gates was retained as secretary of defense
and why rahm emmanuel - north american director
of mossad operations - were installed in their
positions....i.e. to give obama his backbone....
obama is a rockefeller sock puppet and when
davey's henchman moves his hands, obama jumps....
war is coming - even bush twin biden signalled
it during the campaign....
Good point about Biden...he's an blathering idiot (but a good leading indicator) and the potential proverbial canary in the mine. Remember, Barry-O "will be tested." Biden will screw up and let the cat out of the bag too early somewhere along the line....
Wizards First Rule: "People are stupid; given proper motivation, almost anyone will believe almost anything. Because people are stupid, they will believe a lie because they want to believe it's true, or because they are afraid it might be true. People’s heads are full of knowledge, facts, and beliefs, and most of it is false, yet they think it all true. People are stupid; they can only rarely tell the difference between a lie and the truth, and yet they are confident they can, and so are all the easier to fool."
Not saying TD is stupid. Obviously talking about the herd, that we are trying to save! Tough job, to say the least, helping those who do not want to be helped!
"And yet they are confident they can (tell between lie and truth)"
Hmmm, you seem to think you are better than "the herd". We are all cut from the same cloth, brother.
I seem to sense PIGMEN on the other side of this here internet CONnection.
keehotee: that is the second true comment you have made
in the important events of our times you are
absolutely correct....
I always thought all the fabrication about "reasons" to invade Iraq were in place to position our country strategically, with troops in Afganistan and Iraq, so our country's presence would be felt in Iran. But, to see this in print like this makes me sick!
I wonder what Ron Paul will say about this!
Iraq is a "colony" of the US we sell all thier oil and give them an "allowance".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJUEULWEP9c
there were two drivers to the invasion of iraq...
one was to settle a personal feud between the
bushes and bin laden and hussein (not to be
confused with our kenyan "president"...)... daddy
bush and baby bush were one time business partners
with saddam and osama....the latter knew too much
and were not sufficiently cooperative in the pipeline
business so were destroyed......
this in turn relates to strategic envelopment
of iran which is perceived to be a barrier to
american imperial ambitions...however the
iranian game is pure theater...there is nothing
there but a feud between the usa and iran
which is no more real than the "feud" between
jack benny and fred allen....thus the real target
is not iran but syria...
syria is far more a problem than iran and will
be obliterated....iran could fall secondly in a
double cross....just as happened to hussein
and bin laden...
russia and china are ultimately the real fears
of the oligarchs and must be brought into submission
but first the middle east must be firmly controlled....
Obama had to give Russia something to get the sanctions on Iran. Russia loves Iran screwing with the U.S. With NATO expansion Russia didn't have any motivation to agree to sanctions against Iran. Obama promised Israel that if they did not take a military route, he would deliver them crippling sanctions against Iran. Well if the P-5+1 talks are to succeed then they need Russia and China on board. If Israel bombs Iran then Iran would mine the Strait of Hormuz and other key points in the Persian Gulf. To avoid that the U.S. would have to take a pre-emptive strike on all of Iran's little motor boats prior to Israel's military action. In other words to keep oil form going to $300 a barrell we would have to join the war of Israel vs Iran.
Consider that President Obama owns this "robust recovery"; an external event such as you describe would disguise the reality that this recovery is not sustainable.
A US war with Iran, or an Israeli-Iran war, will boost the dollar. Geopolitical problems are always good for the dollar. The only trump card this country has is its military and geopolitical problems always send people running to the "safety" of big brother. It would be a very easy way to tank the stock market and boost treasuries and the dollar.
maybe war will break out to "hide" the dollar crash...?
EURUSD at $1.60. Mark my words.
If the US gets involved in some way, Obama can use the Bush/Rove strategy of: "we can not change commander and chief during war" !
A Second term then becomes "boxed off".
Wash Rinse Repeat !
I know the strategy you mention would be attempted, but i don't think it will work. Obama has proven himself to be socialist and very radical.
Allow me to respectfully differ on this, and this is important in considering the above: I'm not sure that Obama is personally a socialist anymore than George Bush. Not defending Obama's great record here, but I am weary of the "Obama is the source of all evil" drumbeat, as if the prior 8 years (and alot more on either side of the partisan aisle) did not exist. If anything, I think it is a disinformation thread, along with all of the "he is really a Muslim, his birth records are doctored, etc." that is being pushed by certain elements who are thrilled with the easy distraction this sort of talk provides. Any time any group of us can be distracted. . .
Obama is a figurehead, has a certain number of toys he is allowed to play with in the back yard with the other kids, and is not in charge of anything important, just like his predecessor (who was minded by Cheney), IMHO. I bet if "Renegade" asked the Secret Service boys to go fetch the nuclear football, they'd look at each other, look back and say "don't think so, sir. You know the rules."
clearly he is a front-man, much like the psychopathic CEO who does the bidding of the PE guys in the backroom
...sadly, it looks like that is the truth of most of our presidents and elected officials...
Bush's projects may have had the same effect as any socialist agenda creating bigger government, so i guess i can agree with that.
I think both parties are corrupt except for a good few like Ron Paul and Alan Grayson and a few others...I wasn't for Bush, or Obama, and the reason i wasn't for Obama was because it troubled me to know that he had radical affiliations prior to his bid for the presidency, and even now, he has maintained these rather radical connections....(and by the way i am fiscally conservative, and open and liberal minded in general, and absolutely not a racist!!!!!)
RACIST!
Not entirely, but possibly.
No, you know, that is just the joke lately, everyone is a racist when you disagree with anyone about anything and so i was trying to be funny by saying, "and i am not a racist" ...so if you were serious and speaking of me, not even a smidgen...just ain't so.
Yes, it was a joke, everyone (who is white) is a racist now (CNN says so), there is no sense in denying it. :)
excerpts from "Racism" by Ayn Rand
Thanks JohnKing! Astonishing that some people don't get how absurd the whole thing is...
Racist, Racism; these terms need to be binned, they have lost all meaning and are only bandied about by the power elite to establish and maintain political advantage through the leveraging of one group over another. They are trying to create a world where tribalism trumps issues.
The charge is meant as a trump card, to put the opponent on the defensive and keep him there. It's not working, the left is flummoxed by its failure, because it has always worked in the past.
Let's see if they put down the tribalism tool, my guess is they won't. The problem for the left is that there are too many middle class blacks depending on the ponzis of 401k's, pensions, etc., they are waking up and the only way to keep them in the black identity fold is to turn up the volume on core fears.
Good counter to the "racist card" is to state you're a behaviorist.
Nah, that sends you down too many bunny trails; behavior is influenced by economics, the economic model is inherently racist..blah blah..
STFU works fine for me. :)
i agree with the tenor though not the details
of your comments....
i agree that obama may not be a doctrinaire
socialist in the traditonal 1960s sense of the
term but he is a totalitarian doing the bidding
of his puppet masters....
the dichotomy of liberal / conservative or
socialist / capitalist is all a parlor game
for the powerful who are as agnostic and
contemptuous toward true believers as you could
find....they got so bored that they came up with
the stupid red / blue division....what a joke...
i most emphatically believe that his birth
records are fake and that he was born in kenya...
it would be such a simple matter to put to rest
and yet for some reason he does not care to do
it....his vulnerability is quite useful to his
masters....
and most emphatically baby bush was chaperoned
by cheney who in turn took his orders from daddy....
i don't know if baby bush is really as stupid as
he appears or if it is a (sister) act....
Why do you think there is only one voting machine company now? Most of the stuff is not super sneaky. The elite aren't (much) smarter than the rest of us. Actually they're worse off. What's that saying about pride?
Russia says Ahmadinejad's Holocaust jibe totally unacceptable
MOSCOW : Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statement that the Holocaust was "a myth" is "totally unacceptable", the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement Saturday.
"Such statements, wherever they come from, contradict the truth and are totally unacceptable," ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said in the statement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1006038/1/.html
The Russian burnt offering Holocaust with 50 million killed by the Bolsheviks and the 100 million killed in China's burnt offering holocaust were not myths either.
How about 3+ million SE Asians killed in the Vietnam holocaust
Actually we were saving them from themselves. And I believe it was only 3.5 million.
pol pot contributed at least 2 million.
It's nice to have friends that are willing to help... still... you break it you buy it.
Plus Russia needs the benefit of the spike in oil prices for "economic growth".
the only terrorist in this world are governments.
it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the mossad someway, somehow, had clandestinely brought some low yield nuclear device across our porous southern borders and it possibly is in place now, waiting until the time when it will needed. the israelis will attack the united states in some fashion, and then make it look like arabs did it, as they did in 911. mossad motto, by way of deception thou shall do war....who did the lockerbie pan am 102 bombing? that guy that just got released from prison to go home in libya obstensibly to die from cancer? nope. the only reason he got released is because his court date was coming up after his appeals and this release allowed the truth to not have to come out in scotish court, that he had nothing to do with it, but was just some chump they put this wrap on , no doubt about it......i could go on and on and on. but check the web if you don't believe me. two facts on 911. look up the dancing israelis and the israeli mossad agents dressed as arabs riding in a white ford van, full of explosives, on george washington bridge that morning, planning to park the truck and blow that bridge but were stopped before they could do it.....
and on and on it goes...amerika's world turned upside down
If buttercups buzz'd after the bee,
If boats were on land, churches on sea,
If ponies rode men and if grass ate the cows,
And cats should be chased into holes by the mouse,
If the mamas sold their babies
To the gypsies for half a crown;
If summer were spring and the other way round,
Then all the world would be upside down.
pray for peace in our great land and pray that the enemies of my people are vanquished forever more.
ahhhhhh, i guess that is one theory
I hope they don't have a moving van set up with agents in advance to witness the attack like last time. I saw the agents we released talk about it on Israeli TV. That was embarassing!
LOL. Ya that was just oh 1 of 100 embarassments though. Hard to make something that big perfect.
The trouble with sites like ZH is that eventually the batshit crazy, black helicopter types discover them.
+10 .... Batshit crazies with conspiratorial "facts".
Nice spelling throughout. FYI, you don't indicate the plural by adding an apostrophe (i.e. American's). Hard to put a lot of weight in a guy that can't write in proper English.
It's "Can't write proper English". Not "Can't write in proper English". Or maybe you mean that he can't write proper in english as apposed to, let's say, he writes proper in Japanese, but not in English. But that would put the "proper" before the word "in". Simple mistake I know, but when you're complaining about spelling using bad grammar it all becomes so infantile don't you think?
you are an idiot.
Is your avatar John Daly? If it is props to you.
This article was written by a 8th years old. It is full of typos.
Anon 74510 - I have friends who have a lisp but I must say I have never encountered someone who lisps when they write.
hahahha That third eye of yours makes the difference.
Thilly thilly 8th year oldths.
And here am I thinking that most of the world is watching with glee as the great American empire crumbles under the weight of it's own debt. Countries all around the world, oh yes and they are many, are hoping to see one of the greatest bully empires fall.
I think people around the world are well aware that Iraq was an oil war, they are also well aware that the US has been itching to bomb Iran, for what ever reason. I do not believe however that the world will be so kind in it's judgement of an extension of it's middle east war policies.
The US is in financial trouble, since the WWII wars have not be profit generating or a good base for a economic recovery. We all know this, the world knows this and I think that we are entering a sad, and possibly final chapter in the great American Dream. And when we wake...Nightmare.
A bit dramatic? I'm seeing my doctor later today...I should be medicated by the time you read this.
The old structures will be completely destroyed so that the new reality can manifest. this has begun. Transition will be messy and control structures will not go quietly. This will be a world wide phenomena and will take years or decades to settle out.
Some people will say nightmare, apocalypse, the death of the society. I say birth is a traumatic event. Everything those drugs offer you can be found within yourself.
Truth: keehotee speaks it. Get rid of the pills and look into a mirror. It will save you money and a healthy mind.
ya mon
And here am I thinking that most of the world is watching with glee as the great American empire crumbles under the weight of it's own debt. Countries all around the world, oh yes and they are many, are hoping to see one of the greatest bully empires fall. I think people around the world are well aware that Iraq was an oil war, they are also well aware that the US has been itching to bomb Iran, for what ever reason. I do not believe however that the world will be so kind in it's judgement of an extension of it's middle east war policies. The US is in financial trouble, since the WWII wars have not be profit generating or a good base for a economic recovery. We all know this, the world knows this and I think that we are entering a sad, and possibly final chapter in the great American Dream. And when we wake...Nightmare. A bit dramatic? I'm seeing my doctor later today...I should be medicated by the time you read this.
A strike on Iran will spike oil prices. A spike in oil prices will squeeze whatever life is left in te American economy and consumer. More layoffs, more foreclosures, more personal and corporate bankruptcies and MOST IMPORTANT more trouble for the banks.
CONCLUSION: This economic crisis is working in favor of Iran. As long as a strike on Iran may mean the death of American major banks, you will not see a strike.
A strike on Iran will be good for every oil exporter BUT Iran. Hard to sell oil when your getting JDAMed (also, demand is down, so losing Iran won't be as big a supply shock as it would have been two years ago).
Those oil exporters can then buy US treasuries, which are used to prop the markets.
Hooray! Globalisim wins again, unless you're Persian.
Exactly, consider a war with Iran a tax on gasoline, during a recession...but then again you should consider a falling dollar a tax imposed by the Federal Reserve, during a recession... either way the result will be the same...
maybe we need some algo/HFT funds out there working the prediction markets...
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=airstrike.iran
language Nazi :)
I find an Israeli strike on Iran very likely, but a US invasion of Iran highly unlikely. The problem sometimes I find with analysis like the above is that they are usually from people who have never served in the Armed Forces, not that it’s a necessary criteria, but it does give one a respectful perspective on just how difficult it is to prepare and wage a war. At this point, the US is resource strapped in terms of waging a war on the scale of invading Iran—recall, Iraq had years of softening. This doesn’t indicate that there would be an outright military defeat of the US, the US has always performed on a tactical level second to none, but that the means of initiating it are not present. For a resource strapped nation to wage outright war, while conducting another one, and policing indirectly another one, it would need to cooperation and mobilization of the entire nation, and I just don’t see that amongst the US citizenry.
An outright war with Iran of course is possible, but not convincing based on overly general notions that ignore the (im)practicalities of actually waging war in reality.
Also, it seems that people are constantly mistaking World War II as ending the Great Depression; as a matter of fact it exasperated the economic hardship—I’m not sure how these people rationalize the destruction of resources as helping the economy, or resource shortages. There was some pick up prior to the war, and that is because many Europeans sent their wealth out and to the US, so the government wasn’t able to suck all the money out of the private market. After the war, well, all the industries of the dominate powers were in ruins except for the rebuilt Soviet factories kicking out T-34s.
There has been speculation that the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities are in underground tunnels. The above ground facilities are decoys, or parallel facilities. If they are underground, what are the chances they can be taken out with an air strike? If they attempt to take out the facilities and fail, does that make the situation much worse? I suspect the Mossad must have pretty good intelligence and confidence they can take them out.
Their nuke sites will probably be nuked. As will their nerve gas and bioweapon facilities.
Not only is Iran’s facilities underground, but they’re dispersed around the country. It was my understanding that has been planning and training for mission to strike Iran for years now—at least that was the rumor floating around Iraq—and of course given Israel’s reputation, I am very confident that they’ve been planning and training for a strike.
There are certainly a lot of wild speculations flying around, such as the use of nuclear weapons, or a tactical nuke in the form of a bunker buster, but this is extremely unlikely—although they will use the heavy 1.5 ton bunker buster in all likeliness.
What isn’t however being speculated is what will Iran’s response be? The answer is more than likely nothing but a denouncement; and as a matter of fact Iran might even welcome an attack if they become a bit more destabilized domestically. What has really held back Israel’s hand is that no one is actually sure how far along Iran really is in terms of a nuclear weapon. The problem for Israel is, if they strike, and Iran’s weapons program has much further to go, then they risk increased activity out of Lebanon, but more importantly, this may galvanize Iran’s citizenry and unify the country. So really Israel has probably been waiting to see how Iran’s domestic turmoil plays out, and now that it seems rather obvious, at least from the outside, they’ll probably strike, and either prop up or hope that the repressed Iranian dissidents will take advantage to seek reprisals.
Overall, however, Iran knows that there is really not much they can do to retaliate militarily if Israel strikes. Any move of aggression would lead to a direct conflict with the United States, and Iran has so far played their cards fairly well over the years in neutralizing their enemies (Saddam and the Taliban) while also neutralizing the US. So it’s not really in the long term interest of Iran to start a firefight with the US. Iran’s hope, and they know this as well, lies with their nuclear facilities, for the most part, remaining intact after a strike—and if a strike occurs, expect Iran to play up the devastation or play it down, either will be with such extreme as to make it not believable more likely.
Is Israel confident that they can take out Iran’s facilities with a strike? Probably not as confident as they would like to be. Is Iran confident that their facilities can survive? Probably not as confident as they would like to be. And so this is the game being played, and given how long this has dragged out, neither side seems to be showing a great deal of confidence in their plans.
They will strike Dimona with accurate ICBMs. That will be bad for life in the area ... which can include a lot of Israel.
"Also, it seems that people are constantly mistaking World War II as ending the Great Depression; as a matter of fact it exasperated the economic hardship ..."
"Exasperated" the economic hardship? Such English makes stones cry. Its exacerbated, for God's sake, man, not exasperated.
oh for fuck's sake i think most people figured
that out on their own....what a complete
waste of a post....
...Not to mention that for some of the posters English is clearly a second (or third) language.
Frankly, I give props to anybody even trying to use the word 'exacerbated'.
Mutual exacerbation?
get a room
agree about ww2 having absolutely no effect on
the depression....another one of those cia
controlled newsfaker press stories to give
war a good name....
also agree about invasion of iran would be a
napoleonic charge into russia - absolutely
ignorant and unnecessary....
syria is a different story and i believe that
they are the next target....if iran is indeed
a real enemy - something i seriously doubt -
they would be effectively neutralized in the middle
east....but ultimately i believe that iran
will be double crossed and destroyed.
control of the middle east locks out russia and
china which is the real goal of usa oligarchs...
that brings the usa one step closer to world
domination and the nwo....
quick - i am running out of tin....but i truly
believe my thesis...
Definitely Russia has a major stake in the Middle East, or to be more exact, in the world oil market. So does China, but China needs oil more for internal growth, whereas Russia not only needs its oil for national income, but also to continue Putin’s policy.
It’s hard to say what talks went on between Israel and Russia, and I won’t speculate on that, but I do suspect that if Iran were actually close to a nuclear weapon, then Russia would have sold the anti-aircraft weapons to Iran. I know it sounds crazy, but let me explain. Iran might very well have the ability to create a nuclear explosion (given the knowledge distributed by “rogue” scientist from Pakistan and maybe N. Korea, and other nations); however, the real difficult part is not so much the actual denotation as it is the miniaturization required for developing a delivery mechanism—and this North Korea still has a long way to go (hopefully). When the Soviet Union collapsed, it wasn’t just the weapon grade nuclear material that we worried over, it was also the rocket technology and the miniaturization tech. The problem I think is that although the rockets and material may have been secured, but were the schematics secured as well?
Anyway, if Iran could get a nuclear weapon up and ready in a timely fashion, then of course they have a counter to a United States engaging in a conventional war, and this obviously would make an invasion very unlikely. If Iran were even reasonably close, then the Russians would have sold the anti-aircraft weapons, not so much that this would ultimately deter an attack from Israel (it would actually speed it up), but that it would at least increase the odds of an attack having only marginal results—probably only knocking out the facilities temporarily. I think this would be in Russia’s interest not because they so much as want to control all energy sources, or the majority of them (although they certainly wouldn’t object to this or that they’re not trying), but that they need to keep as many energy exporters as possible hostile to the United States, and even the EU. This in effect would prevent the United States and its allies (Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and so on) from manipulating the price of energy, that is, manipulating the price of energy to choke the Russian economy.
I suspect that Iran is working on a nuclear weapon, and why wouldn’t they, but I suspect that they have a ways to go; and so Putin took the opportunity to probably extract something by not selling the weapons to Iran, all the while probably knowing that it won’t drastically effect a program that probably has a ways to go anyways; and the added bonus is that it will keep Iran hostile to the US by maintaining tensions.
One of Putin’s strategies has been to use Russia’s petrodollars to buy foreign assets, primarily in EU nations, and mainly in the form of corporate stock. This allows Putin to apply pressure to a powerful corporation, which in turn, contributes to politicians funding, and this in turn allows Putin to have indirect influence on splitting the EU through lobbying pressure.
I’m not sure what I said makes sense, but I hope it does. I didn’t want to go on for too long.
First of all, WWII helped drag the US economy from a broken commerce model toward a command model based on the Rathenau method. Five million (unemployed) men were sent into the services, with millions more to come. Factories were reopened and new ones built - literally overnight. Wages were fixed at a higher level (relative to Depression wages) and unionization given a green light (with strikes prohibited). Much assembly work was turned over to women and African- Americans. Consumer products were rationed. Home gardening was encouraged (while most Americans grew their own food in home gardens, anyway).
With costs controlled and wages increasing, citizens had money, including groups that had previously been mired in poverty.
The war itself was a colossal drain on the US economy, its imposition was brief. Commercial production began again in 1943. Pent up demand was increasing - although expressing this had to wait until much of the war debt was paid off (!).
During the war, most Americans felt the Depression would resume after the fighting had ended. Instead, the end of the war brought long term US prosperity. This was the golden age of US industrial productivity and the key was relatively high wages for industrial workers.
US economic growth did not take place in earnest until 1948. A trigger for this was the Marshall Plan, which had the government subsidize industrial and agricultural exports to Europe. The basis for post- war prosperity had a foundation of high skill manufactuing (into a market with little competition), high union wages, and favorable demographics. Management expenses were relatively low, there was little of the 'finance tax' effect on US commerce.
Vietnam brought the end to this period. The costs of this war, inflation, and the decline of US oil production made American goods uncompetitive with goods from our ex- adversaries. A turning point was reached in August of 1971, when President Nixon torpedoed the Bretton Woods currency compact and closed the Treasury gold window. From that moment, currency manipulation and inflation would be the path down which the world's commercial enterprises would fall ... yea, fall.
Another war for the US right now - with two wars underway plus proxy adventures in South America, the Philippines, Georgia and elsewhere - would be an out and out catastrophe. An attack on Iran would cause oil prices to rise sharply, probably double as Iran's production represents almost all of the the industry's spare capacity. Right now, oil price represents a 'substitute Bretton Woods' with the value of the dollar pegged to oil by OPEC.
America in 2009 is not the same country as it was during the Depression. Most Americans in 1941 were farmers or served the agricultural industry in small towns. America was the world's oil producer; it had most of its forests, iron, copper, nickel, water and other resources undisturbed and waiting. America had run up debt during the depression, but the percentage to GDP (and potential GDP) was small compared to the ratio today. America's population was smaller and its demands on commerce much less.
Americans thought little of rationing and high taxes imposed to pay for the war effort. Socialization of commerce was part of depression- fighting New Deal government strategy. After Pearl Harbor, Americans felt socially compelled to band together to 'do their part' to fight fascism and Japanese imperialism. There were no 'tea parties' instigated by business interests or false patriots such as Dick Armey (outside of a coup attempt against Roosevelt in 1934). There would little tolerance for such restrictions as gas rationing - or even higher gas taxes - today.
America invaded Iraq believing the cost to do so (thereby gaining guarantees of longer- term oil security) was small. Going to war is a guessing game about costs. Russia invading S. Ossetia was one of the most expensive wars in its history, indirectly costing it most of its currency reserves. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost the US as much as did Vietnam and have guaranteed no oil security for the US. The costs of expanding the war effort to Iran are daunting. Even a short halt to production by Iran would have a tremendous and long lasting effect on prices. A challenge to last year's high price of $147 would not be out of the question and the fall from that level would certainly result from demand destruction accompanying the destruction of commercial output. This destruction being on top of the fall in output that has taken place already. Furthermore, the effect on the dollar is hard to predict as the usual 'flight to safety' would be questioned.
Traders are looking for the trigger to a renewal of the slide in markets that began earlier in the year. An attack on Iran would be a good candidate. The Fed and the Treasury are terrified of a fall in the markets, this is why Fed liquidity is propping them up. This has never happened before and is remarkable. Going to war would be very risky to the all- powerful Fed, which would likely veto any war on risk grounds. While the President does not acknowledge the existence of Peak Oil, there is no doubt the Fed has complete and total understanding of its ramifications.
If the markets fall past the March lows, there would be no doubt about whether the counrtry faced inflation or deflation. The massive overhang of bad debt in financial institutions would accelerate a deflationary decline, beyond the ability of the establishment to address it. Both the Fed and Treasury have used their ammunition to address the current phase of the slowdown. They have no reserves, left.
Instead of ending the second Great Depression a war would likely ignite it.
I have never, ever, ever, even once read a credible suggestion that the US was going to invade/conquer Iran, particularly given its strategic situation. Even silly fool Risk players like Richard Perle would not advocate that, so , I'm not sure why you would even bring that up. It's always been about air strikes.
Obama is trading the missile defense system in Poland (really, a first strike system) for no sale of S300 air defense missiles to Iran.
Israeli leaders were in Russia recently making an appeal and offering deals to not sell S300 to Iran.
For those that don't know, the S300 system is an extremely capable air defense system that can wreak havoc on anything the Israeli AF has. And is an equal threat to anything the U.S. has except for true stealth aircraft. Long story short, an Iran with S300 would likely defeat an Israeli air strike. At the very, very least, it would cause Israel massive losses. It would force them to run 2-3x the number of sorties per target and prolong the mission, which is bad for Israel politically/globally. They're looking for a quick surprise attack that is massive and completely successful and over with before the media reports the "breaking news"
If S300 wasn't a serious threat, Israel would not have sent their leadership to Russia, nor would the U.S. trade off the missiles in Poland. The missiles in Poland were a trading chip from the start. One with options of course. Could work both ways. But Russia checked that their own play.
Without S300, Iran doesn't have a chance. Of course, the U.S. will be assisting in the strike with a massive barrage of tomahawk cruise missiles. That will not be reported by the media of course. No doubt the B-2's will get in the mix. It will be an Israeli mission for "survival" for the masses. The US will also have to assist with taking out Iran's navy to keep them from mining the gulf or blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Let's not forget about the low-yield nuclear bunker busters that, time and time again were allegedly blocked in congress. LOL, yeah right. These might be used, and no one will know. Won't make the news. Might make the web after the fact. And that will be called Iranian propaganda or conspiracy theory truther nuttery.
Can anyone trust Russian? They now have many ways to play the chess game.
I'm not sure about the substance, but there were some reports some weeks ago that the Arctic Sea incident really was about Mossad stopping illegal export of S300s to Iran. That would explain the sudden interest of the Obama Administration to please the Russians.
I'm not so sure that I would trust what is said about the S300. The 2007 Israeli attack on Syria was against another supposed state of the art Russian air defense system, which was a complete failure. This left Syria, Iran and Russia pointing fingers at one another.
And I have lost count of how many Russian aircraft that have augered in at airshows. I don't know if it was the indian or the arrow, but it doesn't speak well of either hardware or training.
I also remember reading about Russian tanks involved in last years romp with Georgia, a tank driver noticed the black smoke belching out of the Russian armor, not a good sign of proper maintenance.
I'm not taking issue with the article, just with the possible perception of Russian technological capabilities.
OT
This should help put a few more nails in the Cap-Add-Tax coffin.
Breaking: Alternative climate conferance in Copenhagen at the same time as the Official climate meeting
http://climaterealists.com/index.php
You're first link is broken. Please edit it. I like to keep up with what you find on the climate change stuff. Thank you.
Time to get a script to buy a bottle of Xanax from my Doctor.
Thanks for the comic book version of Zbigniew Brzezinski's "The Grand Chessboard" circa 1997.
There are of course a wealth of political economy volumes empirically showing the link between economic wealth and warfare. You got it, we are going to kick your ass and take it. Then tell the populace it is a good war/ just war hypothesis...
There are some excellent volumes analyzing Nixon's suspension of the gold standard making the dollar a de facto crude oil backed currency via the dollars Brenton Woods reserve currency role.
And the Saudi pushed OPEC declaration in 1973 that all oil transactions would denominated in US dollars.
Then of course we have the dollar hegemony, euro oil transactions by Iraq, Iran and North Korea conspiracists...
It was what the Amerikan century was all about, Charlie Brown.
Now tell me something I have not been reading about the last 10 years...
You seem like a well read individual - what's your best guess on Iran?
nixon's suspension of gold did not make our
currency crude backed....
its purpose was the same as england's
adoption of central banking in the late 17th
century - to leverage enormous sums of money
for war making....
Central bankers pretty much wore England out. I think they had 57 straight years of war or preparing for war at one point in their history. Now the poor people there won't even fight when the government is stomping all over their rights.
Meanwhile, the girls continue to splurge on $300 handbags....
Additional verification from my wife (whose job, it appears, is to drown me in debt): women's retail has been insane for the last couple weeks. ANN, COH, BEBE, Banana Rep, Whitehouse-Blacksomething (Chicos I think) all significantly busier than any time in the last 2 years.
Direct quote "..it's busy like 2005."
Wars take a long time to prepare. You can see them coming from miles away. The worse that can happen in this case is that someone launches an airborne surgical strike.
Dry-docking of the fourth tremendously large Logistics vessel is finishing up at Bayonne Dry-Dock in NJ. Last time this series of four vessels were done in a row was right befor Gulf One. Just thought I'd join in on the loony talk.
Wow...the Coach chart is simply amazing. Not much volume behind that 100%+ move....we'll see what happens when the algorithms turn negative.
This whole thesis is ca-ca. The Russians needn't have made a "deal" of any kind to induce the United States to end its provocative placement of missile systems in the Czech Republic and Poland. The whole idea of defending Europe against an imaginary Iranian nuclear and missile capability was always simply a manifestation of neo-con and Israel Lobby war planning implimented by their Bush Administration marionettes and it was getting more than a little dangerous. When you actually pursue your imperialist stupidities to the point of ringing a nuclear power like Russia with missile systems and offer NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine, both former Soviet Republics, you are committing the United States to the defense of these peoples as though they were our own. Plans like these have all the hair-brained nuttiness of something Hitlerian. The Russians, through provocative gestures of their own, made clear in no uncertain terms their wholly justifiable displeasure with this Bushian Case Barbarrosa and Obama, in the first concession to sanity evident in his whole tenure so far, deep-sixed it. It makes little difference how the decision was rationalized by Obama, only that it was announced and will be carried out. It is always the proper pursuit of the national interest to correct imbecilities.
That notwithstanding, US/Isreali acts of aggression against the people of Iran - and it could only be through some joint instrumentality that any such acts would be possible in any case - seem increasingly likely. One might even come to think that Hillary Clinton is some latter day version of Joachim von Ribbentrop from the evident bellicosity. But no is fooled by the lies being pressed as pretexts: The imaginary Iranian bomb and its partner the intercontinental Iranian missile. In precisely the same way as it has served the interests of its client contributors during its handling of the present financial crisis, America's ruling clique has and will serve the interests of a foreign power in the implimentation of its Middle East policy. And you thought you were living in a demcracy.
A representative republic actually.Of course, the representatives are totally corrupt scum.
I am troubled by the Russian condemnation of the latest statements by Iran's president.This seems out of character...I suspect Iran may have some serious trouble in it's future.This is sad...and totally pointless.A soon to be seen lesson in how lethal the greed which drives wall st and the banking scum is.
Iran may even get nuked....if the false flag they use is sufficiently evil.
And that would be tragic.I am sad to say our actual leaders are capable of anything.And by the way, Obama is not one of them.He is only a puppet.Scary work afoot........
I share your concerns and most assuredly your view of the oafal that rules us, Cistercian. But I think it may be a bit early to conclude that some fundamental shift in Russian policy is at foot here. The complaint was about "balance" which obligated the Russians to a similar "balance" in their own statements, of course. Time will tell, not that time will temper the war enthusiasms of the bought-and-paid-for leadership of what now can only be considered a satellite nation.
I always wonder who are behind the puppet.
See, now that is where you are wrong. I, at least, KNEW I was not living in anything close to a democracy. I have always realized that Israel has far more input on US policy than any lowly American does.
Attacking Iran has world-war implications. I doubt it happens.
Bravo! Finally, signs of intelligence on this thread.
Clearly, great minds think alike, eh, Anonymous?
War didn't end the Depression. That's a misstatement of fact. It was the opening of lines of credit to finance the machinery and capital of war (which could have been performed in other ways) which ended the Depression. It's correlation is not causation.
Sure, the war created a reality which allowed certain things to happen. It wasn't required.
But, since so many people believe it, it must be true...sigh.
The US doesn't have to invade Iran, and doesn't have the capacity
to do so. However, it could definitely aid Israel in an attack on the
Iranian nuclear sites. Israel could launch a massive series of air
strikes on the nuclear sites while the US air forces (USAF and USN)
attack all the Iranian military airfields and naval bases. Saudi Arabia
could also get involved to protect their oil fields from Iranian attack.
US planes could launch from Iraq and carriers in the Persian Gulf.
The big question is, does Israel know where the nuclear sites are?
They are deep underground somewhere and exact knowledge is
needed to get them. I suspect that they would use ground
penetrating nuclear bombs to destroy the sites because they have
to make sure they get them.
AH !!
change you can believe in.
Watch me change Iran from 3rd world to turd world.
love & regards
O'Bummer
A-jad and nukes are not happening. BB will take them out - no choice, especially after A-jad just said the holocaust never happened. He's a wing- nut, everyone knows it. The market will rally when he and the nukes are gone.
OMG this is more exciting than Box seats at Monster Truck....
I agree with Anon #74584. Historians have ample evidence to dispute claims that WWII ended the Depression. Give this podcast a listen, or read the summary:
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2008/12/higgs_on_the_gr.html
War as a means of "increasing GDP" is effective, as you are spending money to destroy productive assets, and some of your assets get destroyed too. This is why Sarkozy's desire to find a different metric than GDP for the Wealth of Nations and the happiness of a citizenry is a good idea. A housewife raising intelligent, healthy children should be counted in the new metric instead of a 1930s-era relic that can't see that digging holes and filling them up again isn't "economic output."
pretty large leap of logic from current wrangling over iranian nukes to big war several years down the line to lift the economy.
Sure, it will stimulate our economy. Suppose Iran nukes someone. We lay Iran into a sea of glass and then crank our engine of industry and trade to rebuild them.
Oy! Lots of opportunity!
yes. if you "suppose iran nukes someone" knowing that they would be turned into a sea of glass. "suppose iran is dumb enough to commit suicide" and you get all kinds of economic activity. large leap
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090919/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_missile_defense