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Who Will Replace Jean-Claude Trichet As European Central Bank President Next Year?
Bundesbank President Axel "I'm German, That's All You Need Know" Weber
37%
Portugal's Central Bank Governor Vitor "Policy Wonk" Constancio
1%
Italy's Mario "What the Hell Are You Laughing at?" Draghi
4%
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3%
There's Going to be a Euro Next Year?
56%
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on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:07
#74447
Turkey will end up going with the Russian missile defense system.
Tendering for the system ends on the 13th of Oct.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:00
#74452
War at some point in time has been on my personal forecast list for some time. Your work is beginning to crystallize when & where it might occur. It seems every US President must have the obligatory war in their tenure. Thanks!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:40
#74559
War is often used to distract a population from its own financial or social problems and to avert attention from failed leadership to internal or external threats, real or otherwise manufactured.
In fact, the trigger for the war is almost always created to suit the need and is usually a false flag attack of some sort.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:59
#74578
The short-attention-span populace has been distracted enough from true reform in finance through the no-doubt Wall Street - financed nth run at reform in Health Care and the related War on Taxable and Discretionary Income. Now that the Healthiness debate (as in Truthiness) is coming to rotten fruition and a likely dead man's vote will result ("uh, we don't really think health care it a vital concern anymore but we'll vote for it because Teddy would have wanted it"), all we have left is war.
I've always said that the US Dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the United States plus the most powerful navy, air force, and modern army the world has known. Faith & credit have been securitized and discredited and discounted. All we have left is guns & butter.
so ...
Give War a Chance (to quote PJ)
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:23
#74667
+10
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 05:51
#74785
How would the iPod generation respond to a truly major war?
Prediction: We'll have an Anti-War resistance movement and related social unrest that will make the vaunted 60's look like a children's tea party.
Make their day, Obama.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 07:35
#74809
War: Now we know what it's good for.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 12:33
#74943
Selling lots of t-bills, say it again! Whuaaa!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:08
#74456
So, if the United States of Israel decides to invade Iran, what stocks do you recommend?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:51
#74481
short ones
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:45
#74596
Very short ones. Maybe a side order of West Texas.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:43
#74562
Foodstocks
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:09
#74458
To wage a successful campaign, you need carriers. Where exactly are the carriers?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:24
#74468
soon to be at the bottom of the straight of hormuz ... nyuk nyuk
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:09
#74583
nyuk nyuk indeed,
hopefully our global trading partner in the far east hasn't secretly sold their carrier-killer ballistic missile that they just recently successfully tested to our friends the Iranians.
http://www.military.com/news/article/April-2009/new-concerns-over-chinese-carrier-killer.html?ESRC=topstories.RSS
http://warisboring.com/?p=1877
on Wed, 09/23/2009 - 15:44
#77728
Even the ancient Exocet is a real threat to ships.
The navy is like knights; first the rabble invented the crossbow (exocet) then they went on to create not only the musket but also the Lee Enfield .301 which is where the state-of-the art is in relation to the soon-to-be extinct knight in shining armour!
The western navies have, perhaps wisely, not engaged anyone capable of shooting back since the middle of WW2!!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:39
#74593
PM, I posted on this subject only to catch your attention.
Have you seen this info on H1N1?
Dr. Leonard G. Horowitz and Sherri Kane, an investigative journalist, have released evidence in legal affidavits that leaders of a private global biotechnology “trust” are behind the pandemic flu, including its origin and alleged prevention via vaccinations. Their documents, being sent by attorneys to the FBI this week, evidence industrialists are operating a crime ring within the “Partnership for New York City” (PNYC), and are behind the pandemic’s creation, media persuasions, vaccination preparations, and health official promotions.
Scroll down to see the actual affidavit.
http://www.fluscam.com/Affidavit.html
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 09:00
#74840
could that be one reason why ceo of rock and co suicided?
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 10:16
#74874
Nice job on connecting the dots! I am still reeling from the affidavit exposing the Rockafeller agenda! This is just the tip of the iceberg!
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:37
#75167
You mind reader! No fair :)
on Tue, 09/22/2009 - 07:38
#76200
please...the intro reads like a bad Jerry Springer show. The 'affidavit' is unsigned, not complete. But those click thru's for products sure are tempting! Did some just scream FIRE in the theater.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:31
#74505
You mean those things that simply CANNOT move one inch without the ENTIRE WORLD knowing they are moving?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:48
#74568
Nah, just pretend they carry timber and somehow fell in the hands of pirates in the Baltic sea. I'm sure noone will ever suspect anything.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:02
#74625
Pull a Down Periscope (1996). Dress the carrier up as a cruise ship and put everone on deck playing shuffleboard. LOL
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:48
#74566
Carriers are the most vulnerable aspect of the US Naval war machine. Do a little reading on some of the missiles freely available on the market that can severely damage a carrier with one strike and sink it with 2-3 strikes.
The US and the rest of the world have known for decades of these vulnerabilities. Both the Russians and the Chinese sell very effective missiles for exactly this type of situation.
The Persian Gulf is a particularly bad place to station our carriers and the US knows this. Unless of course you want to rally the troops and nation around a sunken carrier.
Remember the Maine.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:32
#74590
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8262259.stm
Someone just hit the hurry tab.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:47
#74644
If I am not mistaken China holds the note on our carrier fleet. You would think this would dissuade them from helping to destroy it.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:10
#74459
Ok--all of this and Putin says with regard to OBama's decision to spike missile placement in Poland and eastern Europe (and I quote) “I very much hope that this correct and brave decision will be followed by others.”which means "bend over and grease up" in most Slavic languages.Two scenarios from a non-expert:1) We are going to let Israel take out Iran or2) we have just surrendered and Israel had to cut a deal with Putin regarding Iran.The oil/gas pipelines in Eurasia while important, are a mere sideshow.Of equal importance is the fact that the Chinese are buying into the Canadian oil sands and the Canadian pipe liners building a West Coast access for shipments to China. The green movement in the US may get their wish. It is going to be one Hell of an oil price spike and final price.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:33
#74555
My speculation is #2.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:49
#74835
Let them buy the stuff up, in time of emergency we can just confiscate it. No problem!
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 18:43
#75018
You do know they halted the Gateway project for a pipeline from alberta to the BC coast a couple years ago eh?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:21
#74462
Keyser, glad to see you have written an article! I agree, the whole Iran thing is once again reaching a fever pitch in terms of MSM articles. . . if only one could have been a fly on the wall at the meeting of Netanyahu and Putin. . .
What was also interesting is that Obama cancelled the interceptor systems in Poland and Czech Republic (which were obviously for Russian missiles, not Iranian ones).
We are now treading water in this wonderful fake economic recovery, absent a catalyzing event, such as "a new pearl harbor" -- to use the immortal words of PNAC from their September 2000 report Rebuilding America's Defenses
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:57
#74486
"if only one could have been a fly on the wall at the meeting of Netanyahu and Putin.
absolutely!
something like this?....N'hu confirms the action, gives timeframe. reminds Putin that he is really going to be ringing the oil register and may want to get all his money from Iran for those surface to air systems asap.
looks like the u.s. and russia got some love going on....eastern eur. missile defense shield in exchange for Russia staying out of the way and collecting some serious oil coin. did the u.s. get some assurances from Russia that we don't get boned on the oil supply/cost?
seems to me that russia has gotta be loving the prospect of the israelis taking out the iran leadership.
and the chinese? they want the oil.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:14
#74464
War is certainly baked into the stock market, perhaps Obama will declare one during his Leno appearance. Jay can crack a few jokes, Obama can chuckle for the camera.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:17
#74465
Israel sends Iran's nuk sites to Allah, Russia and Jimmy Carter are outraged, but do nothing, people power in Iran overthrows the mullahs and we at home get Obamacare!
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 16:05
#74985
Tehran is sounding better and better.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:26
#74469
My prediction is that Ahmadinejad doesn't live to see the new year.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:33
#74472
Would be a "convenient" way to trigger inflation & help to cure that pesky debt problem?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:34
#74475
God, this place is turning into UFO central.
Obama won't invade because he has no backbone - just rhetoric, Israel wont do anything because of exactly the same reason!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:58
#74575
You obviously don't understand the Israeli mindset.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:35
#74638
are you doing your best imitation of a fucktard?
obama doesn't need the backbone - that is precisely
why gates was retained as secretary of defense
and why rahm emmanuel - north american director
of mossad operations - were installed in their
positions....i.e. to give obama his backbone....
obama is a rockefeller sock puppet and when
davey's henchman moves his hands, obama jumps....
war is coming - even bush twin biden signalled
it during the campaign....
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 07:28
#74804
Good point about Biden...he's an blathering idiot (but a good leading indicator) and the potential proverbial canary in the mine. Remember, Barry-O "will be tested." Biden will screw up and let the cat out of the bag too early somewhere along the line....
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:52
#74482
Wizards First Rule: "People are stupid; given proper motivation, almost anyone will believe almost anything. Because people are stupid, they will believe a lie because they want to believe it's true, or because they are afraid it might be true. People’s heads are full of knowledge, facts, and beliefs, and most of it is false, yet they think it all true. People are stupid; they can only rarely tell the difference between a lie and the truth, and yet they are confident they can, and so are all the easier to fool."
Not saying TD is stupid. Obviously talking about the herd, that we are trying to save! Tough job, to say the least, helping those who do not want to be helped!
"And yet they are confident they can (tell between lie and truth)"
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:59
#74576
Hmmm, you seem to think you are better than "the herd". We are all cut from the same cloth, brother.
I seem to sense PIGMEN on the other side of this here internet CONnection.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:37
#74592
keehotee: that is the second true comment you have made
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:37
#74639
in the important events of our times you are
absolutely correct....
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:57
#74485
I always thought all the fabrication about "reasons" to invade Iraq were in place to position our country strategically, with troops in Afganistan and Iraq, so our country's presence would be felt in Iran. But, to see this in print like this makes me sick!
I wonder what Ron Paul will say about this!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:39
#74512
Iraq is a "colony" of the US we sell all thier oil and give them an "allowance".
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yJUEULWEP9c
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:48
#74645
there were two drivers to the invasion of iraq...
one was to settle a personal feud between the
bushes and bin laden and hussein (not to be
confused with our kenyan "president"...)... daddy
bush and baby bush were one time business partners
with saddam and osama....the latter knew too much
and were not sufficiently cooperative in the pipeline
business so were destroyed......
this in turn relates to strategic envelopment
of iran which is perceived to be a barrier to
american imperial ambitions...however the
iranian game is pure theater...there is nothing
there but a feud between the usa and iran
which is no more real than the "feud" between
jack benny and fred allen....thus the real target
is not iran but syria...
syria is far more a problem than iran and will
be obliterated....iran could fall secondly in a
double cross....just as happened to hussein
and bin laden...
russia and china are ultimately the real fears
of the oligarchs and must be brought into submission
but first the middle east must be firmly controlled....
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:58
#74487
Obama had to give Russia something to get the sanctions on Iran. Russia loves Iran screwing with the U.S. With NATO expansion Russia didn't have any motivation to agree to sanctions against Iran. Obama promised Israel that if they did not take a military route, he would deliver them crippling sanctions against Iran. Well if the P-5+1 talks are to succeed then they need Russia and China on board. If Israel bombs Iran then Iran would mine the Strait of Hormuz and other key points in the Persian Gulf. To avoid that the U.S. would have to take a pre-emptive strike on all of Iran's little motor boats prior to Israel's military action. In other words to keep oil form going to $300 a barrell we would have to join the war of Israel vs Iran.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:08
#74494
Consider that President Obama owns this "robust recovery"; an external event such as you describe would disguise the reality that this recovery is not sustainable.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 16:59
#74488
A US war with Iran, or an Israeli-Iran war, will boost the dollar. Geopolitical problems are always good for the dollar. The only trump card this country has is its military and geopolitical problems always send people running to the "safety" of big brother. It would be a very easy way to tank the stock market and boost treasuries and the dollar.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:22
#74501
maybe war will break out to "hide" the dollar crash...?
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 02:53
#74772
EURUSD at $1.60. Mark my words.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:02
#74489
If the US gets involved in some way, Obama can use the Bush/Rove strategy of: "we can not change commander and chief during war" !
A Second term then becomes "boxed off".
Wash Rinse Repeat !
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:05
#74491
I know the strategy you mention would be attempted, but i don't think it will work. Obama has proven himself to be socialist and very radical.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:36
#74508
Allow me to respectfully differ on this, and this is important in considering the above: I'm not sure that Obama is personally a socialist anymore than George Bush. Not defending Obama's great record here, but I am weary of the "Obama is the source of all evil" drumbeat, as if the prior 8 years (and alot more on either side of the partisan aisle) did not exist. If anything, I think it is a disinformation thread, along with all of the "he is really a Muslim, his birth records are doctored, etc." that is being pushed by certain elements who are thrilled with the easy distraction this sort of talk provides. Any time any group of us can be distracted. . .
Obama is a figurehead, has a certain number of toys he is allowed to play with in the back yard with the other kids, and is not in charge of anything important, just like his predecessor (who was minded by Cheney), IMHO. I bet if "Renegade" asked the Secret Service boys to go fetch the nuclear football, they'd look at each other, look back and say "don't think so, sir. You know the rules."
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:55
#74527
clearly he is a front-man, much like the psychopathic CEO who does the bidding of the PE guys in the backroom
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:18
#74545
...sadly, it looks like that is the truth of most of our presidents and elected officials...
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:04
#74537
Bush's projects may have had the same effect as any socialist agenda creating bigger government, so i guess i can agree with that.
I think both parties are corrupt except for a good few like Ron Paul and Alan Grayson and a few others...I wasn't for Bush, or Obama, and the reason i wasn't for Obama was because it troubled me to know that he had radical affiliations prior to his bid for the presidency, and even now, he has maintained these rather radical connections....(and by the way i am fiscally conservative, and open and liberal minded in general, and absolutely not a racist!!!!!)
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:29
#74553
RACIST!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:44
#74563
Not entirely, but possibly.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:25
#74668
No, you know, that is just the joke lately, everyone is a racist when you disagree with anyone about anything and so i was trying to be funny by saying, "and i am not a racist" ...so if you were serious and speaking of me, not even a smidgen...just ain't so.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:48
#74680
Yes, it was a joke, everyone (who is white) is a racist now (CNN says so), there is no sense in denying it. :)
excerpts from "Racism" by Ayn Rand
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 00:27
#74740
Thanks JohnKing! Astonishing that some people don't get how absurd the whole thing is...
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:14
#74817
Racist, Racism; these terms need to be binned, they have lost all meaning and are only bandied about by the power elite to establish and maintain political advantage through the leveraging of one group over another. They are trying to create a world where tribalism trumps issues.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:38
#74832
The charge is meant as a trump card, to put the opponent on the defensive and keep him there. It's not working, the left is flummoxed by its failure, because it has always worked in the past.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:50
#74836
Let's see if they put down the tribalism tool, my guess is they won't. The problem for the left is that there are too many middle class blacks depending on the ponzis of 401k's, pensions, etc., they are waking up and the only way to keep them in the black identity fold is to turn up the volume on core fears.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 10:59
#74897
Good counter to the "racist card" is to state you're a behaviorist.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 11:23
#74904
Nah, that sends you down too many bunny trails; behavior is influenced by economics, the economic model is inherently racist..blah blah..
STFU works fine for me. :)
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:57
#74649
i agree with the tenor though not the details
of your comments....
i agree that obama may not be a doctrinaire
socialist in the traditonal 1960s sense of the
term but he is a totalitarian doing the bidding
of his puppet masters....
the dichotomy of liberal / conservative or
socialist / capitalist is all a parlor game
for the powerful who are as agnostic and
contemptuous toward true believers as you could
find....they got so bored that they came up with
the stupid red / blue division....what a joke...
i most emphatically believe that his birth
records are fake and that he was born in kenya...
it would be such a simple matter to put to rest
and yet for some reason he does not care to do
it....his vulnerability is quite useful to his
masters....
and most emphatically baby bush was chaperoned
by cheney who in turn took his orders from daddy....
i don't know if baby bush is really as stupid as
he appears or if it is a (sister) act....
on Mon, 09/21/2009 - 01:22
#75224
Why do you think there is only one voting machine company now? Most of the stuff is not super sneaky. The elite aren't (much) smarter than the rest of us. Actually they're worse off. What's that saying about pride?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:05
#74490
Russia says Ahmadinejad's Holocaust jibe totally unacceptable
MOSCOW : Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's statement that the Holocaust was "a myth" is "totally unacceptable", the Russian foreign ministry said in a statement Saturday.
"Such statements, wherever they come from, contradict the truth and are totally unacceptable," ministry spokesman Andrei Nesterenko said in the statement.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/1006038/1/.html
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:22
#74548
The Russian burnt offering Holocaust with 50 million killed by the Bolsheviks and the 100 million killed in China's burnt offering holocaust were not myths either.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:04
#74580
How about 3+ million SE Asians killed in the Vietnam holocaust
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:01
#74600
Actually we were saving them from themselves. And I believe it was only 3.5 million.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:59
#74652
pol pot contributed at least 2 million.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 12:30
#74940
It's nice to have friends that are willing to help... still... you break it you buy it.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:05
#74492
Plus Russia needs the benefit of the spike in oil prices for "economic growth".
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:20
#74500
the only terrorist in this world are governments.
it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the mossad someway, somehow, had clandestinely brought some low yield nuclear device across our porous southern borders and it possibly is in place now, waiting until the time when it will needed. the israelis will attack the united states in some fashion, and then make it look like arabs did it, as they did in 911. mossad motto, by way of deception thou shall do war....who did the lockerbie pan am 102 bombing? that guy that just got released from prison to go home in libya obstensibly to die from cancer? nope. the only reason he got released is because his court date was coming up after his appeals and this release allowed the truth to not have to come out in scotish court, that he had nothing to do with it, but was just some chump they put this wrap on , no doubt about it......i could go on and on and on. but check the web if you don't believe me. two facts on 911. look up the dancing israelis and the israeli mossad agents dressed as arabs riding in a white ford van, full of explosives, on george washington bridge that morning, planning to park the truck and blow that bridge but were stopped before they could do it.....
and on and on it goes...amerika's world turned upside down
If buttercups buzz'd after the bee,
If boats were on land, churches on sea,
If ponies rode men and if grass ate the cows,
And cats should be chased into holes by the mouse,
If the mamas sold their babies
To the gypsies for half a crown;
If summer were spring and the other way round,
Then all the world would be upside down.
pray for peace in our great land and pray that the enemies of my people are vanquished forever more.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:57
#74573
ahhhhhh, i guess that is one theory
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:08
#74602
I hope they don't have a moving van set up with agents in advance to witness the attack like last time. I saw the agents we released talk about it on Israeli TV. That was embarassing!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:56
#74616
LOL. Ya that was just oh 1 of 100 embarassments though. Hard to make something that big perfect.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 12:06
#74925
The trouble with sites like ZH is that eventually the batshit crazy, black helicopter types discover them.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 18:55
#75021
+10 .... Batshit crazies with conspiratorial "facts".
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:23
#74502
Nice spelling throughout. FYI, you don't indicate the plural by adding an apostrophe (i.e. American's). Hard to put a lot of weight in a guy that can't write in proper English.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:51
#74519
It's "Can't write proper English". Not "Can't write in proper English". Or maybe you mean that he can't write proper in english as apposed to, let's say, he writes proper in Japanese, but not in English. But that would put the "proper" before the word "in". Simple mistake I know, but when you're complaining about spelling using bad grammar it all becomes so infantile don't you think?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:47
#74565
you are an idiot.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:08
#74605
Is your avatar John Daly? If it is props to you.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:38
#74510
This article was written by a 8th years old. It is full of typos.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:03
#74536
Anon 74510 - I have friends who have a lisp but I must say I have never encountered someone who lisps when they write.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:05
#74581
hahahha That third eye of yours makes the difference.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:06
#74626
Thilly thilly 8th year oldths.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:39
#74513
And here am I thinking that most of the world is watching with glee as the great American empire crumbles under the weight of it's own debt. Countries all around the world, oh yes and they are many, are hoping to see one of the greatest bully empires fall.
I think people around the world are well aware that Iraq was an oil war, they are also well aware that the US has been itching to bomb Iran, for what ever reason. I do not believe however that the world will be so kind in it's judgement of an extension of it's middle east war policies.
The US is in financial trouble, since the WWII wars have not be profit generating or a good base for a economic recovery. We all know this, the world knows this and I think that we are entering a sad, and possibly final chapter in the great American Dream. And when we wake...Nightmare.
A bit dramatic? I'm seeing my doctor later today...I should be medicated by the time you read this.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:16
#74588
The old structures will be completely destroyed so that the new reality can manifest. this has begun. Transition will be messy and control structures will not go quietly. This will be a world wide phenomena and will take years or decades to settle out.
Some people will say nightmare, apocalypse, the death of the society. I say birth is a traumatic event. Everything those drugs offer you can be found within yourself.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 23:16
#74701
Truth: keehotee speaks it. Get rid of the pills and look into a mirror. It will save you money and a healthy mind.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 10:13
#74873
ya mon
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:40
#74514
And here am I thinking that most of the world is watching with glee as the great American empire crumbles under the weight of it's own debt. Countries all around the world, oh yes and they are many, are hoping to see one of the greatest bully empires fall. I think people around the world are well aware that Iraq was an oil war, they are also well aware that the US has been itching to bomb Iran, for what ever reason. I do not believe however that the world will be so kind in it's judgement of an extension of it's middle east war policies. The US is in financial trouble, since the WWII wars have not be profit generating or a good base for a economic recovery. We all know this, the world knows this and I think that we are entering a sad, and possibly final chapter in the great American Dream. And when we wake...Nightmare. A bit dramatic? I'm seeing my doctor later today...I should be medicated by the time you read this.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:41
#74515
A strike on Iran will spike oil prices. A spike in oil prices will squeeze whatever life is left in te American economy and consumer. More layoffs, more foreclosures, more personal and corporate bankruptcies and MOST IMPORTANT more trouble for the banks.
CONCLUSION: This economic crisis is working in favor of Iran. As long as a strike on Iran may mean the death of American major banks, you will not see a strike.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:19
#74665
A strike on Iran will be good for every oil exporter BUT Iran. Hard to sell oil when your getting JDAMed (also, demand is down, so losing Iran won't be as big a supply shock as it would have been two years ago).
Those oil exporters can then buy US treasuries, which are used to prop the markets.
Hooray! Globalisim wins again, unless you're Persian.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:36
#74670
Exactly, consider a war with Iran a tax on gasoline, during a recession...but then again you should consider a falling dollar a tax imposed by the Federal Reserve, during a recession... either way the result will be the same...
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:41
#74516
maybe we need some algo/HFT funds out there working the prediction markets...
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/contractSearch/index.jsp?query=airstrike.iran
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:48
#74522
language Nazi :)
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:51
#74523
I find an Israeli strike on Iran very likely, but a US invasion of Iran highly unlikely. The problem sometimes I find with analysis like the above is that they are usually from people who have never served in the Armed Forces, not that it’s a necessary criteria, but it does give one a respectful perspective on just how difficult it is to prepare and wage a war. At this point, the US is resource strapped in terms of waging a war on the scale of invading Iran—recall, Iraq had years of softening. This doesn’t indicate that there would be an outright military defeat of the US, the US has always performed on a tactical level second to none, but that the means of initiating it are not present. For a resource strapped nation to wage outright war, while conducting another one, and policing indirectly another one, it would need to cooperation and mobilization of the entire nation, and I just don’t see that amongst the US citizenry.
An outright war with Iran of course is possible, but not convincing based on overly general notions that ignore the (im)practicalities of actually waging war in reality.
Also, it seems that people are constantly mistaking World War II as ending the Great Depression; as a matter of fact it exasperated the economic hardship—I’m not sure how these people rationalize the destruction of resources as helping the economy, or resource shortages. There was some pick up prior to the war, and that is because many Europeans sent their wealth out and to the US, so the government wasn’t able to suck all the money out of the private market. After the war, well, all the industries of the dominate powers were in ruins except for the rebuilt Soviet factories kicking out T-34s.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:04
#74539
There has been speculation that the Iranian nuclear weapons facilities are in underground tunnels. The above ground facilities are decoys, or parallel facilities. If they are underground, what are the chances they can be taken out with an air strike? If they attempt to take out the facilities and fail, does that make the situation much worse? I suspect the Mossad must have pretty good intelligence and confidence they can take them out.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:14
#74632
Their nuke sites will probably be nuked. As will their nerve gas and bioweapon facilities.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:45
#74674
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE MicrosoftInternetExplorer4
Not only is Iran’s facilities underground, but they’re dispersed around the country. It was my understanding that has been planning and training for mission to strike Iran for years now—at least that was the rumor floating around Iraq—and of course given Israel’s reputation, I am very confident that they’ve been planning and training for a strike.
There are certainly a lot of wild speculations flying around, such as the use of nuclear weapons, or a tactical nuke in the form of a bunker buster, but this is extremely unlikely—although they will use the heavy 1.5 ton bunker buster in all likeliness.
What isn’t however being speculated is what will Iran’s response be? The answer is more than likely nothing but a denouncement; and as a matter of fact Iran might even welcome an attack if they become a bit more destabilized domestically. What has really held back Israel’s hand is that no one is actually sure how far along Iran really is in terms of a nuclear weapon. The problem for Israel is, if they strike, and Iran’s weapons program has much further to go, then they risk increased activity out of Lebanon, but more importantly, this may galvanize Iran’s citizenry and unify the country. So really Israel has probably been waiting to see how Iran’s domestic turmoil plays out, and now that it seems rather obvious, at least from the outside, they’ll probably strike, and either prop up or hope that the repressed Iranian dissidents will take advantage to seek reprisals.
Overall, however, Iran knows that there is really not much they can do to retaliate militarily if Israel strikes. Any move of aggression would lead to a direct conflict with the United States, and Iran has so far played their cards fairly well over the years in neutralizing their enemies (Saddam and the Taliban) while also neutralizing the US. So it’s not really in the long term interest of Iran to start a firefight with the US. Iran’s hope, and they know this as well, lies with their nuclear facilities, for the most part, remaining intact after a strike—and if a strike occurs, expect Iran to play up the devastation or play it down, either will be with such extreme as to make it not believable more likely.
Is Israel confident that they can take out Iran’s facilities with a strike? Probably not as confident as they would like to be. Is Iran confident that their facilities can survive? Probably not as confident as they would like to be. And so this is the game being played, and given how long this has dragged out, neither side seems to be showing a great deal of confidence in their plans.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 06:08
#74787
They will strike Dimona with accurate ICBMs. That will be bad for life in the area ... which can include a lot of Israel.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:55
#74614
"Also, it seems that people are constantly mistaking World War II as ending the Great Depression; as a matter of fact it exasperated the economic hardship ..."
"Exasperated" the economic hardship? Such English makes stones cry. Its exacerbated, for God's sake, man, not exasperated.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:03
#74655
oh for fuck's sake i think most people figured
that out on their own....what a complete
waste of a post....
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:21
#74666
...Not to mention that for some of the posters English is clearly a second (or third) language.
Frankly, I give props to anybody even trying to use the word 'exacerbated'.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 10:38
#74887
Mutual exacerbation?
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:04
#75182
get a room
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:16
#74662
agree about ww2 having absolutely no effect on
the depression....another one of those cia
controlled newsfaker press stories to give
war a good name....
also agree about invasion of iran would be a
napoleonic charge into russia - absolutely
ignorant and unnecessary....
syria is a different story and i believe that
they are the next target....if iran is indeed
a real enemy - something i seriously doubt -
they would be effectively neutralized in the middle
east....but ultimately i believe that iran
will be double crossed and destroyed.
control of the middle east locks out russia and
china which is the real goal of usa oligarchs...
that brings the usa one step closer to world
domination and the nwo....
quick - i am running out of tin....but i truly
believe my thesis...
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 00:47
#74747
Definitely Russia has a major stake in the Middle East, or to be more exact, in the world oil market. So does China, but China needs oil more for internal growth, whereas Russia not only needs its oil for national income, but also to continue Putin’s policy.
It’s hard to say what talks went on between Israel and Russia, and I won’t speculate on that, but I do suspect that if Iran were actually close to a nuclear weapon, then Russia would have sold the anti-aircraft weapons to Iran. I know it sounds crazy, but let me explain. Iran might very well have the ability to create a nuclear explosion (given the knowledge distributed by “rogue” scientist from Pakistan and maybe N. Korea, and other nations); however, the real difficult part is not so much the actual denotation as it is the miniaturization required for developing a delivery mechanism—and this North Korea still has a long way to go (hopefully). When the Soviet Union collapsed, it wasn’t just the weapon grade nuclear material that we worried over, it was also the rocket technology and the miniaturization tech. The problem I think is that although the rockets and material may have been secured, but were the schematics secured as well?
Anyway, if Iran could get a nuclear weapon up and ready in a timely fashion, then of course they have a counter to a United States engaging in a conventional war, and this obviously would make an invasion very unlikely. If Iran were even reasonably close, then the Russians would have sold the anti-aircraft weapons, not so much that this would ultimately deter an attack from Israel (it would actually speed it up), but that it would at least increase the odds of an attack having only marginal results—probably only knocking out the facilities temporarily. I think this would be in Russia’s interest not because they so much as want to control all energy sources, or the majority of them (although they certainly wouldn’t object to this or that they’re not trying), but that they need to keep as many energy exporters as possible hostile to the United States, and even the EU. This in effect would prevent the United States and its allies (Saudi Arabia, Dubai, and so on) from manipulating the price of energy, that is, manipulating the price of energy to choke the Russian economy.
I suspect that Iran is working on a nuclear weapon, and why wouldn’t they, but I suspect that they have a ways to go; and so Putin took the opportunity to probably extract something by not selling the weapons to Iran, all the while probably knowing that it won’t drastically effect a program that probably has a ways to go anyways; and the added bonus is that it will keep Iran hostile to the US by maintaining tensions.
One of Putin’s strategies has been to use Russia’s petrodollars to buy foreign assets, primarily in EU nations, and mainly in the form of corporate stock. This allows Putin to apply pressure to a powerful corporation, which in turn, contributes to politicians funding, and this in turn allows Putin to have indirect influence on splitting the EU through lobbying pressure.
I’m not sure what I said makes sense, but I hope it does. I didn’t want to go on for too long.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 10:42
#74888
First of all, WWII helped drag the US economy from a broken commerce model toward a command model based on the Rathenau method. Five million (unemployed) men were sent into the services, with millions more to come. Factories were reopened and new ones built - literally overnight. Wages were fixed at a higher level (relative to Depression wages) and unionization given a green light (with strikes prohibited). Much assembly work was turned over to women and African- Americans. Consumer products were rationed. Home gardening was encouraged (while most Americans grew their own food in home gardens, anyway).
With costs controlled and wages increasing, citizens had money, including groups that had previously been mired in poverty.
The war itself was a colossal drain on the US economy, its imposition was brief. Commercial production began again in 1943. Pent up demand was increasing - although expressing this had to wait until much of the war debt was paid off (!).
During the war, most Americans felt the Depression would resume after the fighting had ended. Instead, the end of the war brought long term US prosperity. This was the golden age of US industrial productivity and the key was relatively high wages for industrial workers.
US economic growth did not take place in earnest until 1948. A trigger for this was the Marshall Plan, which had the government subsidize industrial and agricultural exports to Europe. The basis for post- war prosperity had a foundation of high skill manufactuing (into a market with little competition), high union wages, and favorable demographics. Management expenses were relatively low, there was little of the 'finance tax' effect on US commerce.
Vietnam brought the end to this period. The costs of this war, inflation, and the decline of US oil production made American goods uncompetitive with goods from our ex- adversaries. A turning point was reached in August of 1971, when President Nixon torpedoed the Bretton Woods currency compact and closed the Treasury gold window. From that moment, currency manipulation and inflation would be the path down which the world's commercial enterprises would fall ... yea, fall.
Another war for the US right now - with two wars underway plus proxy adventures in South America, the Philippines, Georgia and elsewhere - would be an out and out catastrophe. An attack on Iran would cause oil prices to rise sharply, probably double as Iran's production represents almost all of the the industry's spare capacity. Right now, oil price represents a 'substitute Bretton Woods' with the value of the dollar pegged to oil by OPEC.
America in 2009 is not the same country as it was during the Depression. Most Americans in 1941 were farmers or served the agricultural industry in small towns. America was the world's oil producer; it had most of its forests, iron, copper, nickel, water and other resources undisturbed and waiting. America had run up debt during the depression, but the percentage to GDP (and potential GDP) was small compared to the ratio today. America's population was smaller and its demands on commerce much less.
Americans thought little of rationing and high taxes imposed to pay for the war effort. Socialization of commerce was part of depression- fighting New Deal government strategy. After Pearl Harbor, Americans felt socially compelled to band together to 'do their part' to fight fascism and Japanese imperialism. There were no 'tea parties' instigated by business interests or false patriots such as Dick Armey (outside of a coup attempt against Roosevelt in 1934). There would little tolerance for such restrictions as gas rationing - or even higher gas taxes - today.
America invaded Iraq believing the cost to do so (thereby gaining guarantees of longer- term oil security) was small. Going to war is a guessing game about costs. Russia invading S. Ossetia was one of the most expensive wars in its history, indirectly costing it most of its currency reserves. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have cost the US as much as did Vietnam and have guaranteed no oil security for the US. The costs of expanding the war effort to Iran are daunting. Even a short halt to production by Iran would have a tremendous and long lasting effect on prices. A challenge to last year's high price of $147 would not be out of the question and the fall from that level would certainly result from demand destruction accompanying the destruction of commercial output. This destruction being on top of the fall in output that has taken place already. Furthermore, the effect on the dollar is hard to predict as the usual 'flight to safety' would be questioned.
Traders are looking for the trigger to a renewal of the slide in markets that began earlier in the year. An attack on Iran would be a good candidate. The Fed and the Treasury are terrified of a fall in the markets, this is why Fed liquidity is propping them up. This has never happened before and is remarkable. Going to war would be very risky to the all- powerful Fed, which would likely veto any war on risk grounds. While the President does not acknowledge the existence of Peak Oil, there is no doubt the Fed has complete and total understanding of its ramifications.
If the markets fall past the March lows, there would be no doubt about whether the counrtry faced inflation or deflation. The massive overhang of bad debt in financial institutions would accelerate a deflationary decline, beyond the ability of the establishment to address it. Both the Fed and Treasury have used their ammunition to address the current phase of the slowdown. They have no reserves, left.
Instead of ending the second Great Depression a war would likely ignite it.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 23:02
#74689
I have never, ever, ever, even once read a credible suggestion that the US was going to invade/conquer Iran, particularly given its strategic situation. Even silly fool Risk players like Richard Perle would not advocate that, so , I'm not sure why you would even bring that up. It's always been about air strikes.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:51
#74524
Obama is trading the missile defense system in Poland (really, a first strike system) for no sale of S300 air defense missiles to Iran.
Israeli leaders were in Russia recently making an appeal and offering deals to not sell S300 to Iran.
For those that don't know, the S300 system is an extremely capable air defense system that can wreak havoc on anything the Israeli AF has. And is an equal threat to anything the U.S. has except for true stealth aircraft. Long story short, an Iran with S300 would likely defeat an Israeli air strike. At the very, very least, it would cause Israel massive losses. It would force them to run 2-3x the number of sorties per target and prolong the mission, which is bad for Israel politically/globally. They're looking for a quick surprise attack that is massive and completely successful and over with before the media reports the "breaking news"
If S300 wasn't a serious threat, Israel would not have sent their leadership to Russia, nor would the U.S. trade off the missiles in Poland. The missiles in Poland were a trading chip from the start. One with options of course. Could work both ways. But Russia checked that their own play.
Without S300, Iran doesn't have a chance. Of course, the U.S. will be assisting in the strike with a massive barrage of tomahawk cruise missiles. That will not be reported by the media of course. No doubt the B-2's will get in the mix. It will be an Israeli mission for "survival" for the masses. The US will also have to assist with taking out Iran's navy to keep them from mining the gulf or blocking the Strait of Hormuz.
Let's not forget about the low-yield nuclear bunker busters that, time and time again were allegedly blocked in congress. LOL, yeah right. These might be used, and no one will know. Won't make the news. Might make the web after the fact. And that will be called Iranian propaganda or conspiracy theory truther nuttery.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:57
#74574
Can anyone trust Russian? They now have many ways to play the chess game.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:08
#74582
I'm not sure about the substance, but there were some reports some weeks ago that the Arctic Sea incident really was about Mossad stopping illegal export of S300s to Iran. That would explain the sudden interest of the Obama Administration to please the Russians.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:53
#74837
I'm not so sure that I would trust what is said about the S300. The 2007 Israeli attack on Syria was against another supposed state of the art Russian air defense system, which was a complete failure. This left Syria, Iran and Russia pointing fingers at one another.
And I have lost count of how many Russian aircraft that have augered in at airshows. I don't know if it was the indian or the arrow, but it doesn't speak well of either hardware or training.
I also remember reading about Russian tanks involved in last years romp with Georgia, a tank driver noticed the black smoke belching out of the Russian armor, not a good sign of proper maintenance.
I'm not taking issue with the article, just with the possible perception of Russian technological capabilities.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:55
#74526
OT
This should help put a few more nails in the Cap-Add-Tax coffin.
Breaking: Alternative climate conferance in Copenhagen at the same time as the Official climate meeting
http://climaterealists.com/index.php
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 06:32
#74790
You're first link is broken. Please edit it. I like to keep up with what you find on the climate change stuff. Thank you.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 17:56
#74528
Time to get a script to buy a bottle of Xanax from my Doctor.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:02
#74534
Thanks for the comic book version of Zbigniew Brzezinski's "The Grand Chessboard" circa 1997.
There are of course a wealth of political economy volumes empirically showing the link between economic wealth and warfare. You got it, we are going to kick your ass and take it. Then tell the populace it is a good war/ just war hypothesis...
There are some excellent volumes analyzing Nixon's suspension of the gold standard making the dollar a de facto crude oil backed currency via the dollars Brenton Woods reserve currency role.
And the Saudi pushed OPEC declaration in 1973 that all oil transactions would denominated in US dollars.
Then of course we have the dollar hegemony, euro oil transactions by Iraq, Iran and North Korea conspiracists...
It was what the Amerikan century was all about, Charlie Brown.
Now tell me something I have not been reading about the last 10 years...
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:08
#74540
You seem like a well read individual - what's your best guess on Iran?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:10
#74658
nixon's suspension of gold did not make our
currency crude backed....
its purpose was the same as england's
adoption of central banking in the late 17th
century - to leverage enormous sums of money
for war making....
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 06:34
#74791
Central bankers pretty much wore England out. I think they had 57 straight years of war or preparing for war at one point in their history. Now the poor people there won't even fight when the government is stomping all over their rights.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:10
#74542
Meanwhile, the girls continue to splurge on $300 handbags....
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 21:04
#75094
Additional verification from my wife (whose job, it appears, is to drown me in debt): women's retail has been insane for the last couple weeks. ANN, COH, BEBE, Banana Rep, Whitehouse-Blacksomething (Chicos I think) all significantly busier than any time in the last 2 years.
Direct quote "..it's busy like 2005."
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:12
#74543
Wars take a long time to prepare. You can see them coming from miles away. The worse that can happen in this case is that someone launches an airborne surgical strike.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:48
#74611
Dry-docking of the fourth tremendously large Logistics vessel is finishing up at Bayonne Dry-Dock in NJ. Last time this series of four vessels were done in a row was right befor Gulf One. Just thought I'd join in on the loony talk.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:21
#74546
Wow...the Coach chart is simply amazing. Not much volume behind that 100%+ move....we'll see what happens when the algorithms turn negative.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 18:53
#74569
This whole thesis is ca-ca. The Russians needn't have made a "deal" of any kind to induce the United States to end its provocative placement of missile systems in the Czech Republic and Poland. The whole idea of defending Europe against an imaginary Iranian nuclear and missile capability was always simply a manifestation of neo-con and Israel Lobby war planning implimented by their Bush Administration marionettes and it was getting more than a little dangerous. When you actually pursue your imperialist stupidities to the point of ringing a nuclear power like Russia with missile systems and offer NATO membership to Georgia and Ukraine, both former Soviet Republics, you are committing the United States to the defense of these peoples as though they were our own. Plans like these have all the hair-brained nuttiness of something Hitlerian. The Russians, through provocative gestures of their own, made clear in no uncertain terms their wholly justifiable displeasure with this Bushian Case Barbarrosa and Obama, in the first concession to sanity evident in his whole tenure so far, deep-sixed it. It makes little difference how the decision was rationalized by Obama, only that it was announced and will be carried out. It is always the proper pursuit of the national interest to correct imbecilities.
That notwithstanding, US/Isreali acts of aggression against the people of Iran - and it could only be through some joint instrumentality that any such acts would be possible in any case - seem increasingly likely. One might even come to think that Hillary Clinton is some latter day version of Joachim von Ribbentrop from the evident bellicosity. But no is fooled by the lies being pressed as pretexts: The imaginary Iranian bomb and its partner the intercontinental Iranian missile. In precisely the same way as it has served the interests of its client contributors during its handling of the present financial crisis, America's ruling clique has and will serve the interests of a foreign power in the implimentation of its Middle East policy. And you thought you were living in a demcracy.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:35
#74591
A representative republic actually.Of course, the representatives are totally corrupt scum.
I am troubled by the Russian condemnation of the latest statements by Iran's president.This seems out of character...I suspect Iran may have some serious trouble in it's future.This is sad...and totally pointless.A soon to be seen lesson in how lethal the greed which drives wall st and the banking scum is.
Iran may even get nuked....if the false flag they use is sufficiently evil.
And that would be tragic.I am sad to say our actual leaders are capable of anything.And by the way, Obama is not one of them.He is only a puppet.Scary work afoot........
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:07
#74604
I share your concerns and most assuredly your view of the oafal that rules us, Cistercian. But I think it may be a bit early to conclude that some fundamental shift in Russian policy is at foot here. The complaint was about "balance" which obligated the Russians to a similar "balance" in their own statements, of course. Time will tell, not that time will temper the war enthusiasms of the bought-and-paid-for leadership of what now can only be considered a satellite nation.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:46
#74610
I always wonder who are behind the puppet.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:48
#74681
See, now that is where you are wrong. I, at least, KNEW I was not living in anything close to a democracy. I have always realized that Israel has far more input on US policy than any lowly American does.
Attacking Iran has world-war implications. I doubt it happens.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 23:19
#74706
Bravo! Finally, signs of intelligence on this thread.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 19:20
#75030
Clearly, great minds think alike, eh, Anonymous?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:09
#74584
War didn't end the Depression. That's a misstatement of fact. It was the opening of lines of credit to finance the machinery and capital of war (which could have been performed in other ways) which ended the Depression. It's correlation is not causation.
Sure, the war created a reality which allowed certain things to happen. It wasn't required.
But, since so many people believe it, it must be true...sigh.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:15
#74587
The US doesn't have to invade Iran, and doesn't have the capacity
to do so. However, it could definitely aid Israel in an attack on the
Iranian nuclear sites. Israel could launch a massive series of air
strikes on the nuclear sites while the US air forces (USAF and USN)
attack all the Iranian military airfields and naval bases. Saudi Arabia
could also get involved to protect their oil fields from Iranian attack.
US planes could launch from Iraq and carriers in the Persian Gulf.
The big question is, does Israel know where the nuclear sites are?
They are deep underground somewhere and exact knowledge is
needed to get them. I suspect that they would use ground
penetrating nuclear bombs to destroy the sites because they have
to make sure they get them.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 19:48
#74597
AH !!
change you can believe in.
Watch me change Iran from 3rd world to turd world.
love & regards
O'Bummer
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:06
#74603
A-jad and nukes are not happening. BB will take them out - no choice, especially after A-jad just said the holocaust never happened. He's a wing- nut, everyone knows it. The market will rally when he and the nukes are gone.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 20:58
#74618
OMG this is more exciting than Box seats at Monster Truck....
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:10
#74628
I agree with Anon #74584. Historians have ample evidence to dispute claims that WWII ended the Depression. Give this podcast a listen, or read the summary:
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2008/12/higgs_on_the_gr.html
War as a means of "increasing GDP" is effective, as you are spending money to destroy productive assets, and some of your assets get destroyed too. This is why Sarkozy's desire to find a different metric than GDP for the Wealth of Nations and the happiness of a citizenry is a good idea. A housewife raising intelligent, healthy children should be counted in the new metric instead of a 1930s-era relic that can't see that digging holes and filling them up again isn't "economic output."
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:12
#74630
pretty large leap of logic from current wrangling over iranian nukes to big war several years down the line to lift the economy.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 21:59
#74650
Sure, it will stimulate our economy. Suppose Iran nukes someone. We lay Iran into a sea of glass and then crank our engine of industry and trade to rebuild them.
Oy! Lots of opportunity!
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:09
#74657
yes. if you "suppose iran nukes someone" knowing that they would be turned into a sea of glass. "suppose iran is dumb enough to commit suicide" and you get all kinds of economic activity. large leap
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:11
#74659
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090919/ap_on_re_eu/eu_russia_missile_defense
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 22:38
#74672
Better map here (pdf warning), includes political alliances: http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/transportation-final.pdf
Ship transport here, note Sevastopol, also Istanbul/Bosphorus: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/oil_transport_in_the_black_sea
"Why would Russians care about the Caspian Sea"
That's a silly thing to say, on a lot of levels; I know you were trying to be rhetorical, but, like, wow. While Capsian reserves are small compared to Saudi / OPEC, they are still significant.
The first map I linked to is very visually busy, but spend fifteen minutes really examining it. We see our old friends Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Iran, Afghanistan, China, Russia. We easily see exactly what a powerful Iran would mean. EU wants the energy. China wants the energy. India wants the energy. The US wants the energy. Turkey furnishes a route to Med shipping. Do you think there'll be a war over this?
Better question: do you want your children in the middle of this?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 23:00
#74688
Any strike on Iran is obviously going to spike the price of oil, drive up the dollar & sink the global economy into deeper recession/depression, at least until the dust settles from such an action.
then again, an already weakened US with a stretched military and facing a protracted economic downturn that will serve to increase already significant US government reliance on foreign funding to finance their bloated deficits & debt, is ripe for having these more recent vulnerabilities exploited.
and from a domestic perspective, the 15M currently unemployed, who have few if any hopeful indications that their prospects will change for the better anytime soon, are not going to make it any easier for a government under siege to appear in control, but rather expose further undesired vulnerabilities.
so the "leadership of the free world" may just be looking for a diversion to demonstrate, to those who might consider taking advantage of perceived vulnerabilities, that they are still in "control" and capable leaders (or is it policeman?) of the free world...
what would an attack on Iran offer China? well, it might provide the chinese the opportunity to diversify their sizeable US reserves by capitalizing on the ensuing international "flight to safety" panic, tho preferred diversification into Russian (or other) oil may not be a viable option thanks to inflated prices.
allowing the chinese to reduce their currently oversized exposure to the $US would also enhance the likelihood of Chinese funding support of the US deficits into the future (at obviously lower levels) rather than cutting it off altogether, should the dollar (& the value of their massive holdings) continue to drift aimlessly lower.
how about russia? well it is pretty obvious that higher oil prices together with the possible disruption of iranian oil supplies would be a short term boon to russia, and improve their grip on the caspian oil reserves.
what about North Korea? - well, they might just fall into line to avoid a similar attack...
the US creates a short term window for securing additional cheap financing of its massive deficits/debt which provides cover to the increased military spending such operation would involve and they provide their two main rivals of China & Russia a window of opportunity to diversify & capitalize on spikes in the $US & oil.
by taking out the Iranian threat to Israel, the US also gains leverage with the Israelis vis a vis resolving the palestinian issue once & for all, which would presumably then serve to appease the oil-rich arab neighbours and pave the way for peaceful co-existence & economic development in the region with an exploding population...that might help pull the world out of its current economic malaise...
it would be a gamble, but one I suspect an increasingly desperate US administration would be willing to consider more seriously now in order to retain its perceived standing in the world, and before those aforementioned vulnerabilities grow & are more easily exploited, making it that much more difficult for the US to recover...
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 23:19
#74707
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/09/the_sayanoshushenskaya_dam_acc....
It's weird how this never really made it as news outside of russia.
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 23:21
#74710
What Netanyahu's trip to Russia signifies is that the USA has no influence on foreign affairs anymore.
Russia dominates Europe because it provides gaz and oil to all the green countries that refuse to build nuclear plants and want to be feal to Russia. Shame on Germany and its feckless public and leadership for being put in the position of dependency. Wind is only useful in politics, not a sensible means for generating electricity. Sunlight is great, but I need to turn on the lights when there is no sun.
Russia wants to dominate its neighbors because it fears them. Russian is a society glued together by fear.
Israel on the other hand is faced with trying to find support in an increasingly hostile administration. I can see Bennie taking on both Iran and the Palestinians, neither of which are of any use to Russia or Israel. Frankly it may be that we see the Palestinians are pushed out of the West Bank. Who would stop Israel if Israel and Russia were on good terms?
on Sat, 09/19/2009 - 23:56
#74731
The links are interesting, but nothing will happen except speeches, diplomacy, threats, "incidents", and deals.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 02:36
#74768
Uh, well some of us know exactly what is about to happen and yes, everything is perfectly set in place. There are a few of us that have been describing the events that were falling into place prophetically, as we witnessed the ridiculously obvious plays that were and are being played, which fulfill prophetic criteria. The foul mocking birds better get it together now and lose the sin tax error. Prophetic events, described by the Word of God in Christ, are not physically devouring yet; like the people in Noah's day, they never saw a global flood, the fallen of this last generation shall not heed the prophetic Word offered and the great tribulation shall come upon them in like manner.
The false offer of peace and safety upon us now, is the prophetic strong delusion upon this generation. The leaders of nations are now fulfilling the prophetic offering stemming from deception, ignorance, corruption and violent enforcement of the prophetic global delusion. My friends, I speak as one that foretold of 911 because, I was paying attention. I'm reading this article on one of the best sites on the net because, I'm paying attention. I live inside the Beltway, I was at the Pentagon on 911. What I saw before that day has lead to this offer.
I have witnessed the coming of the Kingdom of Heaven and the brightness of Glory. I'm telling you, all these things you are witnessing are the last portion of convergence just before the sealing of the prophetic global reality of the City of Babylon, which is defined by the revelation of God in Christ as the entire global market system affecting all nations and tongues ...when the last generation bares the prophetic witness of Israel as a nation restored. We are that prophetic generation.
Required condition, defined prophetically, to fulfill the unleashing, is now set in place. The time is now at hand for the offer of the two marks, the two that bare witness and confirm agreement among all the risen numbered Saints of time, from the dust and whom live now.
The Holy Spirit of God in Christ bares witness on Earth and confirms the prophetic resurrection and the Word risen in agreement.
The Truth is Cause, not a choice but, the revelation and salvation defining the meaning of life, the Love of God in Christ baring the gift of life unto mercy.
The corrupt market defines the prophetic global exposure of the ''Mene Mene Teckle Upharsin'', the final principle inversion God found as the ''wanting'' nature of the devouring ''Lion of Babylon'', representing the beast in the field and the fallen fowls that influence labor, as they are the principalities invested in the self delusion of short term gain, which is the false offer, the unbalanced principle inversion held in the cup of fornication in the hand of the King of Babylon before Cyrus dried up the Euphrates that same night the wine of wrath subjected Babylon to the arrogance pouring out from the stolen vessels which represent the chosen that bare witness of labor, the laborer and Lord of the Harvest,
...and Babylon fell, fulfilling that first prophetically fallen Babylon.
This new global system represents the reason why the word Babylon is expressed twice but, is only written once in the verse in the Book of Revelation, where it is written ''Babylon is fallen, is fallen''. You get the message... Just don't accept the mark of the beast, stay away from the plague and make sure the name of God in Christ is upon you. When they cry peace and safety, that will be the final writing on the wall ...and the prophetic sudden destruction shall come, so don't worry about a thing, just get ready now, right now.
The October (chatter 10/11/09) surprise is always a good time for a code red. (8 year mark of 93, 01, 09 is in play) The last card, the REAL ID system is already in place. The flu fandango is another chip play. The Turkish black-gold hash pipe is just part of the prophetic strong delusion, if you do not know what that is just look it up, it's past time for you to do so but, you are at ZH so you at least have a financial portion of understanding the marketing of a global financial system based on strong delusion, corruption and the most powerful military force of power man has witnessed. Take care, fear not, go with God in Christ. Nice article, good job. Yay ZH!
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 22:04
#75138
fuck your ass bitch. jesus is a joke.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 02:41
#74770
Just about every poster on this board seems to take it for granted that Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb. Does anyone consider the possibility that Iran is pursuing nuclear technology for energy needs and that they are in fact telling the truth? This is a country that has tremendous oil reserves yet has to import gasoline. So far there is no evidence that Iran is trying to manufacture a nuclear bomb.
Did we not learn ANYTHING from the "weapons of mass destruction" claim in Iraq? That was an obviously bogus claim but just about everyone believed it.
By the way, I am not arguing that Iran is not trying to get access to nukes, but rather bringing up the all important point that we should rely on EVIDENCE rather going with our "gut" or believing everything our government tells us.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 06:41
#74792
Ya we learned that once Iraq was under the control of the aholes 4 dollar oil hit pretty quick. We learned that one good. I DO NOT CARE if IRAN is building a bombs b bombs h bombs or what. The government of the UNITED STATES yapped on and on about nuclear weapons being war deterrents ALL during the 80's. So send some guys over there to HELP them make nuclear weapons and send them a big giant fruit basket congratulating them on achieving a war deterrent that many nations of the world enjoy. IF THAT'S what it's all about. If it's not then let's go back over the BS excuses for building hundreds of the stupid things in the 80's and find out what it was really about.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 03:01
#74775
I doubt if a "surgical strike" against Iran would work. However, there is an easier solution, bombing all refinery capacity at Bandar Abbas to oblivion. Serves several goals: First of all Iran can't follow up on their threat to block the Hormuz Strait since they would't be able to get refined oil (just last week they signed an agreement with Venezuela to get refined oil), secondly it will really really fuck up the regime when everyone has to go to work on a mule, and thirdly they will have to rebuild that capacity which they can't by themselves, so they will have to engage with the outside world (of course also with regard to their nuclear capability). A fourth reason is that it will be fun to see the complex burn, but that is just personal. It might also topple Ahmedinedjad, tough that is secondary, he is a lunatic we know, as opposed to some new lunatic we don't yet know.
Taking out Bandar Abbas is easy. The whole complex is above ground, right at the seaboard, and inherently explosive. Couple of missiles should do the trick, and it is a low cost and low risk solution.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 07:22
#74797
any strike on Iran puts the U.S. economy in near-depression from oil spike
but it might work
the key is to get U.S. sheeple really scared, like 9-11 or the "financial crisis"
"Islamic Radicals" seizing nuclear weapons in Pakistan might work for the D.C. crowd, though it is corny and it's been used already in the "embassy takeover in Iran" caper
but it seems to be in the works, and together with a huge catastrophe and loss of lives...that should do it
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 07:26
#74803
Keyser, tatakallam bil 'arabi?
This subject was discussed in a peripheral way in the Open Forum post last week, but I will repeat some thoughts already submitted.
First, how would Israel handle a strike (from a logistical perspective)? They'd need both overflight permission (somewhere) and aerial refueling of any fighter or bomber aircraft, as nothing in their arsenal has the range to reach the sites. If this has already been arranged, I'd be interested in hearing the particulars.
Second, oil would skyrocket... more because of Saudi Arabia than Iran. Once again, the vast majority of the workers who are in daily proximity to Saudi's pipelines and GOSPs are Shi'ite, not Sunni. They have always had an affinity for Iran, and would be quite likely to make things difficult in Saudi if Iran was attacked. Shut off Saudi's 9 million bbl/day and the world looks ugly.
As for the Straits of Hormuz, Iran would definitely block them, even if it meant it could not take delivery of Chavez' refined products. Consider the character embodied in your own moniker (Keyser Soze) and remind yourself that this also describes Iran.
Finally, another---albeit less explosive---explanation for the Russia-Israel meeting is that Israel wanted to express its concern only over the potential delivery of the S300 system, but no deal was struck or heads up given. Cancelling (by Obama) the missile defence shield for Poland, etc., could be either a bone thrown to Russia for not delivering the S300, or it could simply be related to cost or effectiveness relative to a ship-based anti-missile system patrolling the Gulf.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:01
#74813
Ultimately the enemy that has to be controlled is the people. All of them. There is no long range plan with a happy ending.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:02
#74814
I fell asleep. What inninng is it and who's playing? I can't remember. Was it Order vs. Chaos or Divide vs. Conquer? I'm confused.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 10:27
#74815
Good Morning Children:
"Woe to those who devise iniquity and work out evil on their beds! At morning light they practice it, because it is in the power of their hand. They covet fields and take them by violence, also houses and sieze them. So they oppress a man and his house, a man and his inheritance."
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 12:34
#74944
Worked pretty well for Lord Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, Dick Fuld, Stan O'neal, Ben and Timmy, Hank Paulson, Bobert Rubin, Alan Greenspun, Barney Frank, Chris Cox, Chris Dodd,
John Thain, and a raft of others whose names we'll neve know.
In fact, they covered several of their families' generations in filthy lucre.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:10
#74816
After reading all the above it is quite clear that no one knows what is going to happen, not even in the slightest and the speculation is an enourmous waste of bandwidth. These sentences remain in the ether for all time to come.
Most predictions and scenarios have been amply posted for posterity's sake, but Taleb would be the first to point out that the Black (White) Swan event has not been mentioned.
Chances are the unknown will rule.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 08:41
#74833
This whole Israeli/Iran strike threat is overblown. Its like the mafia bogey man that keeps people in line on the threat of having their kneecaps broken. The only thing going for anti-Iranian interests is the younger demographic verses the clergy. Just like with the Shah, the sooner this becomes an internal economic issue the faster the Iranian polity will change. The US, Israel, or the combined armed forced of the world could not send Persia into the stone age, let alone destroy half a dozen (deep) underground nuke research and ballistic missile facilities. Iran; a population of 75MM - twice that of California in a land area the size of Alaska is really going to taught a lesson with 100 sortie of NOE GPS bombing? People will only wake up pissed off and say to themselves; 'We must have finally done something right to get this kind of attention.' A nuke program is a symbol of national pride. That bombing act, even if it removes the imminent threat of missiles on the launch pad will only invigorate the nationalistic feelings of an energized population. How would you feel if your hometown was attacked from the sky by Bernard Maddof and Rahm Emanuel flying in from Manhattan? Everyone in your hometown would be united, regardless of race, color or creed. The US does not have the troops or the robots to land invade Iran, just look at Iraq and AFPAK to understand a real low level insurgency. And Iran has a continuous 2500 year identity/history. That is vastly more powerful than any gun or bomb, including nukes. If GS wants to say why oil is going to $200 this is the best game in town. But bombing ..? As unfortunate as it might be, the grand experiment of transplanting European Jewry into "the Holy Land", killing, disenfranchising and otherwise pushing the local gentry with few prospects off their lands, hoping to build the Third Temple so G_d can smile on you is not going to end well. Some of the brightest Israeli military intelligence folks came to this conclusion decades ago and moved their families to Canada and the US. You can build the highest walls around Israel, the US can fund a proxy war machine, you can arrest or remove all the non-Jews you want just like a jack-booted Nazi; demographics will naturally overtake Israel - zero azimuth retaliation or not.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 09:17
#74847
There goes my wishful theory with a probability of .00001% chance that the federal reserve, the treasury, and Exxon Mobil have a perpetual motion machine that they will introduce to the world just before monetary collapse and we all live happily ever after like the Jetsons.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 12:08
#74926
Why do stories like this bring out all the nutball survivalists? Is it part of the conspiracy that Iran is developing WMD's and they sleep with multiple terrorist groups? Is it part of the conspiracy that Iran's leaders are psycho? I suppose the Rockefellers arranged all that.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 18:01
#74991
Christopher Walken explains the trouble the US and China are having sharing their cultures.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhBJW1UJti8
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 18:35
#75012
LOL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keyser_S%C3%B6ze
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 20:05
#75054
Google Iran Nabucco pipeline. The US would like nothing more than to have Iranian gas fill that pipeline as it is in question now whether they can actually source enough capacity to make it NPV positive. Russia sees no need for the piplien and therein lies a huge pincer for the US/Russian relations over natgas supply to Europe.
One of the tactical problems for Israel is refueling and the return leg home. The Massive US base in Afghanistan provides a pincer both to Iran and an escape hatch for touch and go refueling.
Iran has lots of influence in western Afghanistan with its tribal chiefs. Herk and crew know that Iran will be there far longer than the US. Mullah Omar reminded the US this weekend that the British fought a noble effort but eventually packed up and went home.
Also note the propoesed pipeline dipping through Afghan and on out to the Arabian Sea. Then draw a diagram of where Mullen wants those extra 40K troops. Strategic coincidence?
Why is it that with every article the discussion is always about US plans. What about the IRanian plans. The US knows that Hez makes Al Quesda look like the group lining up for the short bus. The US has always feared the reach and blowback of Hez. A strike on iran may well succeed but rest assured it will not go unanwsered. The Israelis blew up a car recently in Syria and killed the Hez ops chief. Google chemical weapons hez on israeli border.
Now whether the US might welcome a hit as cover for coordinated action in the gulf is another consideration altogether.
The race for resources is on. China is all over Africa and last week investing in Venezuela/Latam. The Monroe Doctrine apparently died somewhere along the way. Must be all those Ben Franklins flying off the printing press.
At this point it will take a crisis to turn the dollar around. All the technicians who have congratulated themselves for reading charts (finance equiv of voodoo), while ignoring the liquidity/HFT thesis of ZH among other. These are the same fools (Gartmen foremost) advocating a dollar bounce on technicals. What the hell does that mean. So if it is worth 0 but gets there too quick it is worth 2 then 5 before we get to 2. What a complete joke, but says a lot about what the financial complex has become. I wonder what the charts screamed in 2006 when paulson was shorting subprime.
on Sun, 09/20/2009 - 23:03
#75181
everyone take off the tinfoil hats and realize $$$ is way more powerful than some politician with access to weapons. there will be no US/Israel Iran war, just posturing. the USA is no longer a geo/political force to be reckoned with, merely assuaged.
the market is rigged, resistance is futile.
on Mon, 09/21/2009 - 01:50
#75227
Umm, Jesus is not a joke. Historic documents proved that he really did live.
on Mon, 09/21/2009 - 02:43
#75233
17 September 1939 USSR invades Poland, with no single protest from the west. 17 September 2009, exactly 70 years later Obama accepts Russians demands and resigns from anti-missile shield in Poland. It's hard to choose more symbolic date to show what are Obama's plans for the future.
on Mon, 09/21/2009 - 09:28
#75307
US should down Israeli jets if they attack Iran nuke sites, says ex- NSA
From ANI
Washington, Sep.21: Former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has urged US President Barack Obama to spell out clearly that the US Air Force will shoot down Israeli jets if they attack Iran's nuclear facilities via Iraqi airspace.
"We are not exactly impotent little babies. They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch? ... We have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren't just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not. No one wishes for this but it could be a 'Liberty' in reverse," the Jerusalem Post quoted Brzezinski as telling The Daily Beast in an interview published Sunday.
Copyright Asian News International/DailyIndia.com
Disinformation anyone?
on Mon, 09/21/2009 - 15:42
#75659
http://www.nabucco-pipeline.com/project/project-timeline/main-page-project-timeline-20090126.html
Could this be why russia is dissing Iran?
Nabucco Gas Pipeline
on Wed, 09/23/2009 - 07:19
#77200
I'm sorry, this post is poorly researched and wrong on so many levels. It really does disservice to this remarkable site. In particular, statements like 'When Russia turned off the gas tap...bla bla bla' should be left to mainstream 'yellow' press.
on Thu, 09/24/2009 - 08:14
#78382
don't suppose any of you paid attention to the plan to provide India and China all the oil energy they need using US troops to pave the way for safe passage thru 'terriorist' controlled lands? That is what our Navy does now with oil going to Europe and the USA now. Wow, we will do anything to make sure the American worker competes on a level playing field at the expense of his standard of living. Tax dollars for peace and prosperity!!!!
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