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Submitted by Keyser Soze
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Better map here (pdf warning), includes political alliances: http://maps.grida.no/library/files/storage/transportation-final.pdf
Ship transport here, note Sevastopol, also Istanbul/Bosphorus: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/oil_transport_in_the_black_sea
"Why would Russians care about the Caspian Sea"
That's a silly thing to say, on a lot of levels; I know you were trying to be rhetorical, but, like, wow. While Capsian reserves are small compared to Saudi / OPEC, they are still significant.
The first map I linked to is very visually busy, but spend fifteen minutes really examining it. We see our old friends Georgia, Abkhazia, Chechnya, Iran, Afghanistan, China, Russia. We easily see exactly what a powerful Iran would mean. EU wants the energy. China wants the energy. India wants the energy. The US wants the energy. Turkey furnishes a route to Med shipping. Do you think there'll be a war over this?
Better question: do you want your children in the middle of this?
Any strike on Iran is obviously going to spike the price of oil, drive up the dollar & sink the global economy into deeper recession/depression, at least until the dust settles from such an action.
then again, an already weakened US with a stretched military and facing a protracted economic downturn that will serve to increase already significant US government reliance on foreign funding to finance their bloated deficits & debt, is ripe for having these more recent vulnerabilities exploited.
and from a domestic perspective, the 15M currently unemployed, who have few if any hopeful indications that their prospects will change for the better anytime soon, are not going to make it any easier for a government under siege to appear in control, but rather expose further undesired vulnerabilities.
so the "leadership of the free world" may just be looking for a diversion to demonstrate, to those who might consider taking advantage of perceived vulnerabilities, that they are still in "control" and capable leaders (or is it policeman?) of the free world...
what would an attack on Iran offer China? well, it might provide the chinese the opportunity to diversify their sizeable US reserves by capitalizing on the ensuing international "flight to safety" panic, tho preferred diversification into Russian (or other) oil may not be a viable option thanks to inflated prices.
allowing the chinese to reduce their currently oversized exposure to the $US would also enhance the likelihood of Chinese funding support of the US deficits into the future (at obviously lower levels) rather than cutting it off altogether, should the dollar (& the value of their massive holdings) continue to drift aimlessly lower.
how about russia? well it is pretty obvious that higher oil prices together with the possible disruption of iranian oil supplies would be a short term boon to russia, and improve their grip on the caspian oil reserves.
what about North Korea? - well, they might just fall into line to avoid a similar attack...
the US creates a short term window for securing additional cheap financing of its massive deficits/debt which provides cover to the increased military spending such operation would involve and they provide their two main rivals of China & Russia a window of opportunity to diversify & capitalize on spikes in the $US & oil.
by taking out the Iranian threat to Israel, the US also gains leverage with the Israelis vis a vis resolving the palestinian issue once & for all, which would presumably then serve to appease the oil-rich arab neighbours and pave the way for peaceful co-existence & economic development in the region with an exploding population...that might help pull the world out of its current economic malaise...
it would be a gamble, but one I suspect an increasingly desperate US administration would be willing to consider more seriously now in order to retain its perceived standing in the world, and before those aforementioned vulnerabilities grow & are more easily exploited, making it that much more difficult for the US to recover...
http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/09/the_sayanoshushenskaya_dam_acc....
It's weird how this never really made it as news outside of russia.
What Netanyahu's trip to Russia signifies is that the USA has no influence on foreign affairs anymore.
Russia dominates Europe because it provides gaz and oil to all the green countries that refuse to build nuclear plants and want to be feal to Russia. Shame on Germany and its feckless public and leadership for being put in the position of dependency. Wind is only useful in politics, not a sensible means for generating electricity. Sunlight is great, but I need to turn on the lights when there is no sun.
Russia wants to dominate its neighbors because it fears them. Russian is a society glued together by fear.
Israel on the other hand is faced with trying to find support in an increasingly hostile administration. I can see Bennie taking on both Iran and the Palestinians, neither of which are of any use to Russia or Israel. Frankly it may be that we see the Palestinians are pushed out of the West Bank. Who would stop Israel if Israel and Russia were on good terms?
The links are interesting, but nothing will happen except speeches, diplomacy, threats, "incidents", and deals.
Uh, well some of us know exactly what is about to happen and yes, everything is perfectly set in place. There are a few of us that have been describing the events that were falling into place prophetically, as we witnessed the ridiculously obvious plays that were and are being played, which fulfill prophetic criteria. The foul mocking birds better get it together now and lose the sin tax error. Prophetic events, described by the Word of God in Christ, are not physically devouring yet; like the people in Noah's day, they never saw a global flood, the fallen of this last generation shall not heed the prophetic Word offered and the great tribulation shall come upon them in like manner.
The false offer of peace and safety upon us now, is the prophetic strong delusion upon this generation. The leaders of nations are now fulfilling the prophetic offering stemming from deception, ignorance, corruption and violent enforcement of the prophetic global delusion. My friends, I speak as one that foretold of 911 because, I was paying attention. I'm reading this article on one of the best sites on the net because, I'm paying attention. I live inside the Beltway, I was at the Pentagon on 911. What I saw before that day has lead to this offer.
I have witnessed the coming of the Kingdom of Heaven and the brightness of Glory. I'm telling you, all these things you are witnessing are the last portion of convergence just before the sealing of the prophetic global reality of the City of Babylon, which is defined by the revelation of God in Christ as the entire global market system affecting all nations and tongues ...when the last generation bares the prophetic witness of Israel as a nation restored. We are that prophetic generation.
Required condition, defined prophetically, to fulfill the unleashing, is now set in place. The time is now at hand for the offer of the two marks, the two that bare witness and confirm agreement among all the risen numbered Saints of time, from the dust and whom live now.
The Holy Spirit of God in Christ bares witness on Earth and confirms the prophetic resurrection and the Word risen in agreement.
The Truth is Cause, not a choice but, the revelation and salvation defining the meaning of life, the Love of God in Christ baring the gift of life unto mercy.
The corrupt market defines the prophetic global exposure of the ''Mene Mene Teckle Upharsin'', the final principle inversion God found as the ''wanting'' nature of the devouring ''Lion of Babylon'', representing the beast in the field and the fallen fowls that influence labor, as they are the principalities invested in the self delusion of short term gain, which is the false offer, the unbalanced principle inversion held in the cup of fornication in the hand of the King of Babylon before Cyrus dried up the Euphrates that same night the wine of wrath subjected Babylon to the arrogance pouring out from the stolen vessels which represent the chosen that bare witness of labor, the laborer and Lord of the Harvest,
...and Babylon fell, fulfilling that first prophetically fallen Babylon.
This new global system represents the reason why the word Babylon is expressed twice but, is only written once in the verse in the Book of Revelation, where it is written ''Babylon is fallen, is fallen''. You get the message... Just don't accept the mark of the beast, stay away from the plague and make sure the name of God in Christ is upon you. When they cry peace and safety, that will be the final writing on the wall ...and the prophetic sudden destruction shall come, so don't worry about a thing, just get ready now, right now.
The October (chatter 10/11/09) surprise is always a good time for a code red. (8 year mark of 93, 01, 09 is in play) The last card, the REAL ID system is already in place. The flu fandango is another chip play. The Turkish black-gold hash pipe is just part of the prophetic strong delusion, if you do not know what that is just look it up, it's past time for you to do so but, you are at ZH so you at least have a financial portion of understanding the marketing of a global financial system based on strong delusion, corruption and the most powerful military force of power man has witnessed. Take care, fear not, go with God in Christ. Nice article, good job. Yay ZH!
fuck your ass bitch. jesus is a joke.
Just about every poster on this board seems to take it for granted that Iran is trying to build a nuclear bomb. Does anyone consider the possibility that Iran is pursuing nuclear technology for energy needs and that they are in fact telling the truth? This is a country that has tremendous oil reserves yet has to import gasoline. So far there is no evidence that Iran is trying to manufacture a nuclear bomb.
Did we not learn ANYTHING from the "weapons of mass destruction" claim in Iraq? That was an obviously bogus claim but just about everyone believed it.
By the way, I am not arguing that Iran is not trying to get access to nukes, but rather bringing up the all important point that we should rely on EVIDENCE rather going with our "gut" or believing everything our government tells us.
Ya we learned that once Iraq was under the control of the aholes 4 dollar oil hit pretty quick. We learned that one good. I DO NOT CARE if IRAN is building a bombs b bombs h bombs or what. The government of the UNITED STATES yapped on and on about nuclear weapons being war deterrents ALL during the 80's. So send some guys over there to HELP them make nuclear weapons and send them a big giant fruit basket congratulating them on achieving a war deterrent that many nations of the world enjoy. IF THAT'S what it's all about. If it's not then let's go back over the BS excuses for building hundreds of the stupid things in the 80's and find out what it was really about.
I doubt if a "surgical strike" against Iran would work. However, there is an easier solution, bombing all refinery capacity at Bandar Abbas to oblivion. Serves several goals: First of all Iran can't follow up on their threat to block the Hormuz Strait since they would't be able to get refined oil (just last week they signed an agreement with Venezuela to get refined oil), secondly it will really really fuck up the regime when everyone has to go to work on a mule, and thirdly they will have to rebuild that capacity which they can't by themselves, so they will have to engage with the outside world (of course also with regard to their nuclear capability). A fourth reason is that it will be fun to see the complex burn, but that is just personal. It might also topple Ahmedinedjad, tough that is secondary, he is a lunatic we know, as opposed to some new lunatic we don't yet know.
Taking out Bandar Abbas is easy. The whole complex is above ground, right at the seaboard, and inherently explosive. Couple of missiles should do the trick, and it is a low cost and low risk solution.
any strike on Iran puts the U.S. economy in near-depression from oil spike
but it might work
the key is to get U.S. sheeple really scared, like 9-11 or the "financial crisis"
"Islamic Radicals" seizing nuclear weapons in Pakistan might work for the D.C. crowd, though it is corny and it's been used already in the "embassy takeover in Iran" caper
but it seems to be in the works, and together with a huge catastrophe and loss of lives...that should do it
Keyser, tatakallam bil 'arabi?
This subject was discussed in a peripheral way in the Open Forum post last week, but I will repeat some thoughts already submitted.
First, how would Israel handle a strike (from a logistical perspective)? They'd need both overflight permission (somewhere) and aerial refueling of any fighter or bomber aircraft, as nothing in their arsenal has the range to reach the sites. If this has already been arranged, I'd be interested in hearing the particulars.
Second, oil would skyrocket... more because of Saudi Arabia than Iran. Once again, the vast majority of the workers who are in daily proximity to Saudi's pipelines and GOSPs are Shi'ite, not Sunni. They have always had an affinity for Iran, and would be quite likely to make things difficult in Saudi if Iran was attacked. Shut off Saudi's 9 million bbl/day and the world looks ugly.
As for the Straits of Hormuz, Iran would definitely block them, even if it meant it could not take delivery of Chavez' refined products. Consider the character embodied in your own moniker (Keyser Soze) and remind yourself that this also describes Iran.
Finally, another---albeit less explosive---explanation for the Russia-Israel meeting is that Israel wanted to express its concern only over the potential delivery of the S300 system, but no deal was struck or heads up given. Cancelling (by Obama) the missile defence shield for Poland, etc., could be either a bone thrown to Russia for not delivering the S300, or it could simply be related to cost or effectiveness relative to a ship-based anti-missile system patrolling the Gulf.
Ultimately the enemy that has to be controlled is the people. All of them. There is no long range plan with a happy ending.
I fell asleep. What inninng is it and who's playing? I can't remember. Was it Order vs. Chaos or Divide vs. Conquer? I'm confused.
Good Morning Children:
"Woe to those who devise iniquity and work out evil on their beds! At morning light they practice it, because it is in the power of their hand. They covet fields and take them by violence, also houses and sieze them. So they oppress a man and his house, a man and his inheritance."
Worked pretty well for Lord Blankfein, Jamie Dimon, Dick Fuld, Stan O'neal, Ben and Timmy, Hank Paulson, Bobert Rubin, Alan Greenspun, Barney Frank, Chris Cox, Chris Dodd,
John Thain, and a raft of others whose names we'll neve know.
In fact, they covered several of their families' generations in filthy lucre.
After reading all the above it is quite clear that no one knows what is going to happen, not even in the slightest and the speculation is an enourmous waste of bandwidth. These sentences remain in the ether for all time to come.
Most predictions and scenarios have been amply posted for posterity's sake, but Taleb would be the first to point out that the Black (White) Swan event has not been mentioned.
Chances are the unknown will rule.
This whole Israeli/Iran strike threat is overblown. Its like the mafia bogey man that keeps people in line on the threat of having their kneecaps broken. The only thing going for anti-Iranian interests is the younger demographic verses the clergy. Just like with the Shah, the sooner this becomes an internal economic issue the faster the Iranian polity will change. The US, Israel, or the combined armed forced of the world could not send Persia into the stone age, let alone destroy half a dozen (deep) underground nuke research and ballistic missile facilities. Iran; a population of 75MM - twice that of California in a land area the size of Alaska is really going to taught a lesson with 100 sortie of NOE GPS bombing? People will only wake up pissed off and say to themselves; 'We must have finally done something right to get this kind of attention.' A nuke program is a symbol of national pride. That bombing act, even if it removes the imminent threat of missiles on the launch pad will only invigorate the nationalistic feelings of an energized population. How would you feel if your hometown was attacked from the sky by Bernard Maddof and Rahm Emanuel flying in from Manhattan? Everyone in your hometown would be united, regardless of race, color or creed. The US does not have the troops or the robots to land invade Iran, just look at Iraq and AFPAK to understand a real low level insurgency. And Iran has a continuous 2500 year identity/history. That is vastly more powerful than any gun or bomb, including nukes. If GS wants to say why oil is going to $200 this is the best game in town. But bombing ..? As unfortunate as it might be, the grand experiment of transplanting European Jewry into "the Holy Land", killing, disenfranchising and otherwise pushing the local gentry with few prospects off their lands, hoping to build the Third Temple so G_d can smile on you is not going to end well. Some of the brightest Israeli military intelligence folks came to this conclusion decades ago and moved their families to Canada and the US. You can build the highest walls around Israel, the US can fund a proxy war machine, you can arrest or remove all the non-Jews you want just like a jack-booted Nazi; demographics will naturally overtake Israel - zero azimuth retaliation or not.
There goes my wishful theory with a probability of .00001% chance that the federal reserve, the treasury, and Exxon Mobil have a perpetual motion machine that they will introduce to the world just before monetary collapse and we all live happily ever after like the Jetsons.
Why do stories like this bring out all the nutball survivalists? Is it part of the conspiracy that Iran is developing WMD's and they sleep with multiple terrorist groups? Is it part of the conspiracy that Iran's leaders are psycho? I suppose the Rockefellers arranged all that.
Christopher Walken explains the trouble the US and China are having sharing their cultures.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UhBJW1UJti8
LOL http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keyser_S%C3%B6ze
Google Iran Nabucco pipeline. The US would like nothing more than to have Iranian gas fill that pipeline as it is in question now whether they can actually source enough capacity to make it NPV positive. Russia sees no need for the piplien and therein lies a huge pincer for the US/Russian relations over natgas supply to Europe.
One of the tactical problems for Israel is refueling and the return leg home. The Massive US base in Afghanistan provides a pincer both to Iran and an escape hatch for touch and go refueling.
Iran has lots of influence in western Afghanistan with its tribal chiefs. Herk and crew know that Iran will be there far longer than the US. Mullah Omar reminded the US this weekend that the British fought a noble effort but eventually packed up and went home.
Also note the propoesed pipeline dipping through Afghan and on out to the Arabian Sea. Then draw a diagram of where Mullen wants those extra 40K troops. Strategic coincidence?
Why is it that with every article the discussion is always about US plans. What about the IRanian plans. The US knows that Hez makes Al Quesda look like the group lining up for the short bus. The US has always feared the reach and blowback of Hez. A strike on iran may well succeed but rest assured it will not go unanwsered. The Israelis blew up a car recently in Syria and killed the Hez ops chief. Google chemical weapons hez on israeli border.
Now whether the US might welcome a hit as cover for coordinated action in the gulf is another consideration altogether.
The race for resources is on. China is all over Africa and last week investing in Venezuela/Latam. The Monroe Doctrine apparently died somewhere along the way. Must be all those Ben Franklins flying off the printing press.
At this point it will take a crisis to turn the dollar around. All the technicians who have congratulated themselves for reading charts (finance equiv of voodoo), while ignoring the liquidity/HFT thesis of ZH among other. These are the same fools (Gartmen foremost) advocating a dollar bounce on technicals. What the hell does that mean. So if it is worth 0 but gets there too quick it is worth 2 then 5 before we get to 2. What a complete joke, but says a lot about what the financial complex has become. I wonder what the charts screamed in 2006 when paulson was shorting subprime.
everyone take off the tinfoil hats and realize $$$ is way more powerful than some politician with access to weapons. there will be no US/Israel Iran war, just posturing. the USA is no longer a geo/political force to be reckoned with, merely assuaged.
the market is rigged, resistance is futile.
Umm, Jesus is not a joke. Historic documents proved that he really did live.
17 September 1939 USSR invades Poland, with no single protest from the west. 17 September 2009, exactly 70 years later Obama accepts Russians demands and resigns from anti-missile shield in Poland. It's hard to choose more symbolic date to show what are Obama's plans for the future.
From ANI
Washington, Sep.21: Former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski has urged US President Barack Obama to spell out clearly that the US Air Force will shoot down Israeli jets if they attack Iran's nuclear facilities via Iraqi airspace.
"We are not exactly impotent little babies. They have to fly over our airspace in Iraq. Are we just going to sit there and watch? ... We have to be serious about denying them that right. That means a denial where you aren't just saying it. If they fly over, you go up and confront them. They have the choice of turning back or not. No one wishes for this but it could be a 'Liberty' in reverse," the Jerusalem Post quoted Brzezinski as telling The Daily Beast in an interview published Sunday.
Copyright Asian News International/DailyIndia.com
Disinformation anyone?
http://www.nabucco-pipeline.com/project/project-timeline/main-page-proje...
Could this be why russia is dissing Iran?
Nabucco Gas Pipeline
I'm sorry, this post is poorly researched and wrong on so many levels. It really does disservice to this remarkable site. In particular, statements like 'When Russia turned off the gas tap...bla bla bla' should be left to mainstream 'yellow' press.
don't suppose any of you paid attention to the plan to provide India and China all the oil energy they need using US troops to pave the way for safe passage thru 'terriorist' controlled lands? That is what our Navy does now with oil going to Europe and the USA now. Wow, we will do anything to make sure the American worker competes on a level playing field at the expense of his standard of living. Tax dollars for peace and prosperity!!!!