Guest Post: No Way Out

Tyler Durden's picture

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kato's picture

you lost me at: "That a depression was in the cards has been foreseeable for decades." such a stupid statement.

tmosley's picture

Right, because abandoning honest money has worked so well for everyone else that ever tried it.

dlmaniac's picture

To Kato Denial is only a river in Africa.

SheepDog-One's picture

Right, stupid statement, because everyone knew that massive spending of a baseless currency and leveraging everything 40X would work so good and always has worked so well in the past. Your grade- *fail*

Fred Hayek's picture

Read The Lords of Finance by Liaquat Ahamed, an excellent history of what central banks did before and during the depression.  It makes it quite clear that the depression of the 30's resulted from a series of policy mistakes that were not at all inevitable. 

Was fiat currency a bad thing?  Yes.  But there was nothing inevitable at that point in time about the terrible economic situation that came to be.

 

Thomas's picture

Indeed, it was excellent. I especially liked the discussion of the gold standard.

Battleaxe's picture

The depression has been foreseeable for decades because of demographics. See hsdent.com.

TwelfthVulture's picture

That wouldn't be DOW 36,000 Harry Dent, would it?

LowProfile's picture

Hey, he was just early.  Wait until we hit QEx35 in 2014.

Battleaxe's picture

The original Dow 36K guys were James Glassman and Kevin Hassett in 1999. Dent did say in 2004 that the dow would go to 36K. It went from 10K to 14K, so not even close. But his demographic observations do make a lot of sense. Listen to this interview from two days ago: http://radio.goldseek.com/nuggets/dent10.05.10.mp3

LowProfile's picture

Ding ding ding ding ding!

Congratulations! 

You just won the DFSOW (dumbest fuckin' statement of the week) prize!

chopper read's picture

i actually thought kato was making a very funny joke.  ?  

 

the author is a patriot, and confirms all rational thought, sadly.  any counterpoints seem fluffy and flowery by comparison, especially when we continue to connect the same dots independently.

 

buy guns 'n ammo while they are still cheap and in abundance.  by the looks of things, half of your countrymen will be your friends, and half your foes.   

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

I don't go in for the false red v. blue dichotomy so does that means that I will have no enemies or that everyone will be my enemy? Surely there will be reasonable folks out there somewhere. They'll come out from cover after the reds and blues have become one giant purple splat.

chopper read's picture

i hear you.  i actually reckon that morons (both "blue" and "red") will revert to racism/tribalism in the ultra short-term (if there is a breakdown in 'government services'/rule of law, for example).  see: LA riots. 

 

probably a good idea to just get out of the cities. 

 

yes, rational heads will ultimately prevail but, again, this may not help you in the short-term.  ...i'm just say'n, Go Ahead.  

IQ 145's picture

  It's newsletter journalism; the rear view mirror makes everything quite clear; my favorite was "--The Africans will make real progress after the Great Depression".

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

And why is that your favorite? Make sure you give it the old college try in producing a 145 IQ response.

carbonmutant's picture

Financial Singularity...

cougar_w's picture

It probably just looks that way. A relative calm before the actual storm.

Energy singularity. Thermodynamics is the silver bullet that kills it all.

Lower Class Elite's picture

Give the lady a prize!  No mention of that gigantic gleaming sword of Damocles in Mr. Casey's Randy musings.   

Misstrial's picture

" Except I believe the descent of the U.S. will be  much faster, much scarier, and will end in a much harder landing than that experienced by Argentina."

As bad as things are going to get, I doubt that the US will fall faster and harder than Argentina.

(hint: the Argentine peso was never a world reserve currency)

~Misstrial

Imminent Crucible's picture

It's precisely because the USD is the world's reserve currency that the U.S. will unravel with greater momentum and damage than Argentina.  Argentina didn't have most of its currency float churning around in 150 other countries.  There was no vast peso surplus to come charging home to dilute and debase the national stock of currency.

See "the Triffin Dilemma".

nuinut's picture

(hint: the Argentine peso was never a world reserve currency)

The major reason for the hard fall; the whole bloody world wants out.

Think about it.

 

Hope you enjoyed your exorbitant privilege while it lasted.

chopper read's picture

...a privilege earned by "The Greatest Generation".

 

the stampede out of USDs will be deafening.  

thanks, baby-boomers.  i hope you enjoyed yourselves.  i suppose its your bad luck that you could not die before the blowback of your cumulative poor decisions.  

 

shall we all meet in Texas then? 

doggings's picture

hmm. many more pissed off and desperate people used to freeloading up till this point, with guns, huge (soon-to-be ex) military without jobs, much more to play for control of..

Once it starts I can see it getting bad pretty fast.

 

 

cossack55's picture

Not fast enough to suit me.

mynhair's picture

Before you DC Lib types bad mouth the Tea Party, go to a rally and learn what it is about.

Maybe you will wake up.

Japhy Ryder's picture

The Tea Party have become more concerned with being a good "Christian" than wanting a small transparent Federal Govt.

 

Ivanovich's picture

So untrue.  That's like saying "all liberals want strong unions".

Japhy Ryder's picture

Agreed, but unfortunatly it seems the people who now get the media attention are not concerned with downsizing the Federal Gov't (including the military) like one of the original "founders" Ron Paul.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Then your complaint is against the media and not the Tea Party. Please direct future epistles to the proper respondent.

Hot Shakedown's picture

I am open to learning more about the Tea Party but if its charter does not include endind the fed and reducing the scope of the military indust complex, it is a complete waist of time. Period

chopper read's picture

as someone who supports those who are part of the Tea Party, Hot Shakedown, i entirely agree.

Navy and Air Force - YES.  standing Army - NO.  State Militia/National Guard - YES.

Above all - END CENTRAL MONEY PLANNING, FIAT MONEY, AND FRACTIONAL RESERVE LENDING. 

 

p.s. term limits, bitchez.

RockyRacoon's picture

You left out killing all the old people.  That about rounds it out.

chopper read's picture

thanks for that.

 

and KILL ALL OLD PEOPLE!

Andrew G's picture

You don't have to kill them, just stop paying for their stupidly high medical expenses (which is what any sane society should do)... I don't expect anyone else to pay for my olds' getting sick...

Helix6's picture

I'm just guessing that your parents haven't run into the kind of medical expenses that bankrupt families yet.

But here's the point: medical practice is tightly regulated here in the US.  Enrollment in medical schools is highly restrictive and medical services ore offerred under a tightly regluated licnesing regime.  This has had the effect of vastly raising the cost of medical care here.  

And in light of this, you're suggesting that the supply of medical services remains tightly restricted while the fees for those services remain unregulated?  This is a formula for financial disaster for anyone with a serious medical condition.  And it shows.  Americans suffer from one of the shortest life expectancies in the developed world while having by far the highest per-capita medical expenditures.  Think there might be a relationship there?

If you're not expecting any help when your folks become old and in need of medical care, then I'm guessing that one of three situations prevails: you or your parents are well enough off to buy medical insurance, you or they are well enough of not to need medical insurance, or they will simply die when the first age-related affliction hits.  Either that or they will be covered by Medicare, and you're secretly OK with that despite your grumblings.

Perhaps instead of sneering at society, we might be better off if we discussed ways of providing quality medical care at reasonable cost.  We seem to be about the only developed society that hasn't fighred out how to do that yet...

chopper read's picture

thank you for the lecture, Helix6.  

having just gotten back 1 year ago from living in england for almost 7 years, i can assure you that your delusions about the joys of state-mandated healthcare are nowhere close to reality.  healthcare in england is a disaster.

 

Medical care in the United States is derided as miserable compared to health care systems in the rest of the developed world.  Economists, government officials, insurers and academics alike are beating the drum for a far larger government rôle in health care.  Much of the public assumes their arguments are sound because the calls for change are so ubiquitous and the topic so complex.  However, before turning to government as the solution, some unheralded facts about America's health care system should be considered.

Conclusion.  Despite serious challenges, such as escalating costs and the uninsured, the U.S. health care system compares favorably to those in other developed countries.

Fact No. 1:  Americans have better survival rates than Europeans for common cancers.[1]  Breast cancer mortality is 52 percent higher in Germany than in the United States, and 88 percent higher in the United Kingdom.  Prostate cancer mortality is 604 percent higher in the U.K. and 457 percent higher in Norway.  The mortality rate for colorectal cancer among British men and women is about 40 percent higher.

Fact No. 2:  Americans have lower cancer mortality rates than Canadians.[2]  Breast cancer mortality is 9 percent higher, prostate cancer is 184 percent higher and colon cancer mortality among men is about 10 percent higher than in the United States.

Fact No. 3:  Americans have better access to treatment for chronic diseases than patients in other developed countries.[3]  Some 56 percent of Americans who could benefit are taking statins, which reduce cholesterol and protect against heart disease.  By comparison, of those patients who could benefit from these drugs, only 36 percent of the Dutch, 29 percent of the Swiss, 26 percent of Germans, 23 percent of Britons and 17 percent of Italians receive them. 

 Fact No. 4:  Americans have better access to preventive cancer screening than Canadians.[4]  Take the proportion of the appropriate-age population groups who have received recommended tests for breast, cervical, prostate and colon cancer:

  • Nine of 10 middle-aged American women (89 percent) have had a mammogram, compared to less than three-fourths of Canadians (72 percent).
  • Nearly all American women (96 percent) have had a pap smear, compared to less than 90 percent of Canadians.
  • More than half of American men (54 percent) have had a PSA test, compared to less than 1 in 6 Canadians (16 percent).
  • Nearly one-third of Americans (30 percent) have had a colonoscopy, compared with less than 1 in 20 Canadians (5 percent).

Fact No. 5:  Lower income Americans are in better health than comparable Canadians.  Twice as many American seniors with below-median incomes self-report "excellent" health compared to Canadian seniors (11.7 percent versus 5.8 percent).  Conversely, white Canadian young adults with below-median incomes are 20 percent more likely than lower income Americans to describe their health as "fair or poor."[5]

Fact No. 6:  Americans spend less time waiting for care than patients in Canada and the U.K.  Canadian and British patients wait about twice as long - sometimes more than a year - to see a specialist, to have elective surgery like hip replacements or to get radiation treatment for cancer.[6]  All told, 827,429 people are waiting for some type of procedure in Canada.[7]  In England, nearly 1.8 million people are waiting for a hospital admission or outpatient treatment.[8]

Fact No. 7:  People in countries with more government control of health care are highly dissatisfied and believe reform is needed.   More than 70 percent of German, Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and British adults say their health system needs either "fundamental change" or "complete rebuilding."[9]

Fact No. 8:  Americans are more satisfied with the care they receive than Canadians.  When asked about their own health care instead of the "health care system," more than half of Americans (51.3 percent) are very satisfied with their health care services, compared to only 41.5 percent of Canadians; a lower proportion of Americans are dissatisfied (6.8 percent) than Canadians (8.5 percent).[10]

Fact No. 9:  Americans have much better access to important new technologies like medical imaging than patients in Canada or the U.K.  Maligned as a waste by economists and policymakers naïve to actual medical practice, an overwhelming majority of leading American physicians identified computerized tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) as the most important medical innovations for improving patient care during the previous decade.[11]  [See the table.]  The United States has 34 CT scanners per million Americans, compared to 12 in Canada and eight in Britain.  The United States has nearly 27 MRI machines per million compared to about 6 per million in Canada and Britain.[12] 

Fact No. 10:  Americans are responsible for the vast majority of all health care innovations.[13]  The top five U.S. hospitals conduct more clinical trials than all the hospitals in any other single developed country.[14]  Since the mid-1970s, the Nobel Prize in medicine or physiology has gone to American residents more often than recipients from all other countries combined.[15]  In only five of the past 34 years did a scientist living in America not win or share in the prize.   Most important recent medical innovations were developed in the United States.[16]  [See the table.]

 

http://www.ncpa.org/pub/ba649

 

HEALTHCARE IS NOT A RIGHT, IT IS A LUXURY.   FURTHER, OBAMACARE IS MAKING HEALTHCARE MORE EXPENSIVE.  EVERYONE KNOWS THIS AS WE SEE OUR INSURANCE RATES SKYROCKETING.  

AMERICANS DO NOT OWE EACH OTHER HEALTHCARE.  IS THIS THE LAND OF OPPORTUNITY, OR THE LAND OF HANDOUTS?  WE CANNOT HAVE BOTH AS THEY ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE.  

IF YOU DO NOT APPRECIATE YOUR FREEDOMS TO SUCCEED OR FAIL, THEN MOVE ELSEWHERE.  

 

RECISION's picture

fact No.7  People in countries with more government control of health care are highly dissatisfied and believe reform is needed.   More than 70 percent of German, Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and British adults say their health system needs either "fundamental change" or "complete rebuilding.

If I were you Chopper, I wouldn't bet my life on the accuracy of those Stats or Facts.


chopper read's picture

sadly, i've already had several friends and a father-in-law in england bet their lives and they are no longer here to wage their complaints.  so, i'm doing it for them.

you, RECISION, can GO FUCK YOURSELF.  

i look forward to the day that treasonous cunts like you experience the true pain or your 'do-gooder' agendas.  

reasoning with assholes like you is like throwing pearls to swine.  no worries, i've got my guns and i've got my gold.  all my friends are buying guns and gold, too.  come and get them, fuckwit.

chopper read's picture

A recent "Investor's Business Daily" article provided very  
 interesting statistics from a survey by the United Nations  
 International Health Organization.

 Percentage of men and women who survived a cancer five years  
 after diagnosis:

  U.S.              65%

  England        46%

  Canada         42%

 Percentage of patients diagnosed with diabetes who received  
 treatment within six months:

  U.S.              93%

  England        15%

  Canada         43%

 Percentage of seniors needing hip replacement who received it  
 within six months:

  U.S.              90%

  England        15%

  Canada         43%

 Percentage referred to a medical specialist who see one within  
 one month:

  U.S.              77%

  England        40%

  Canada         43%

 Number of MRI scanners (a prime diagnostic tool) per million people:

  U.S.              71

  England        14

  Canada         18

 Percentage of seniors (65+), with low income, who say they are in  
 "excellent health":

  U.S.              12%

  England        2%

  Canada         6%


 I don't know about you, but I don't want "Universal Healthcare"  
 comparable to England or Canada .

 Moreover, it was Sen. Harry Reid who said, "Elderly Americans  
 must learn to accept the inconveniences of old age."

 SHIP HIM TO CANADA OR ENGLAND !

 He is "elderly" himself but be sure to remember his health  
 insurance is different from yours as Congress has their own high- 
 end coverage!  He will never have to learn to accept  
 "inconveniences"!!!

 AND THE WINNER IS VERY INTERESTING!

 The percentage of each past president's cabinet who had worked in  
 the private business sector prior to their appointment to the  
 cabinet.  You know what the private business sector is... a real  
 life business, not a government job.  Here are the percentages.

 T. Roosevelt........  38%

 Taft.....................40%

  Wilson ................52%

 Harding..................49%

 Coolidge..............  48%

 Hoover................. 42%

 F. Roosevelt.........  50%

 Truman..................50%

 Eisenhower........... 57%

 Kennedy..............  30%

 Johnson.................47%

 Nixon...................  53%

 Ford..................... 42%

 Carter..................  32%

 Reagan...................56%

 GH Bush................. 51%

  Clinton   ................. 39%

 GW Bush................ 55%

 And the winner of the Chicken Dinner is:


 Obama................ 8%  !!!

This alone can explain the incompetence of this administration....! ! !
!!     8 % 



 Yep!  That's right!  Only Eight Percent!!!.. the least by far of  
 the last 19 presidents!!  And these people are trying to tell our  
 big corporations how to run their business?  They know what's  
 best for GM...Chrysler... Wall Street... and you and me?

 How can the president of a major nation and society...the one  
 with the most successful economic system in world history...  
 stand and talk about business when he's never worked for one?..  
 or about jobs when he has never really had one??!  And neither  
 has 92% of his senior staff and closest advisers!  They've spent  
 most of their time in academia, government and/or non-profit  
 jobs....or as "community organizers" when they should have been  
 in an employment line.

CrockettAlmanac.com's picture

Tea Party...charter

 

Despite efforts to mischaracterize or co-opt the Tea Party it is simply a spontaneous association of individuals who quite correctly voice disapproval of enslavement by government. There is no charter, nor should there be one.

Boba Fiat's picture

Wrong, but thanks for playing.  Do you know what the "Tea" in Tea Party stands for?  Taxed Enough Already.  The movement is inspired by libertarian philosophy, seeks a return to a Constitutional government (and, implicity, honest money), and Ron Paul's presidential campaign was the seedcorn.  Go to a meeting.  There is literally one in every town.  This is a revolution and it's time to choose up sides. 

And being an ironic Seinfeldian heckler ain't an option this time.

lilimarlene1's picture

Well put, Boba! And, I like your shoes!

:)

Getagrip's picture

Well said! I'm gonna get "junked" (more battle scars), but all we need to do is get back to the basics of our Constitution. One Nation Under God. One Nation Under Jesus...the  light, the truth, the way....In the mean time, standby for more pain as this plays out. God Bless and help us...   

Getagrip's picture

Forgot to mention, there have been four great civilizations in history (up to Euro/America). Babylon, Medo Persia, Greece, and Rome. They all have the same thing in common..Godless, and currently... an archeological dig. How's America doing? 

Lower Class Elite's picture

I think you just proved Ryder's original point.

RECISION's picture

I'm pretty sure that the Roman empire was very Christian.

Which would be why the Vatican is in Rome.

Duh...

Kobe Beef's picture

Hate to spoil your point, but the four civilizations you mention had lots of gods. They were very godly. In fact, most of the myths enclosing the Christian religion are borrowed freely from them. Look it up, please.

Hallelulah,
Beef