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Guest Post: Oil Price Could Doom Obama
Submitted by Llewellyn King of OilPrice.com
Oil Price Could Doom Obama
Like death and taxes, the price of oil is always with us. And like
taxes, it may be President Barack Obama’s worst nightmare at election
time next year.
Among forecasters, there is a sharp division between those who see an
inexorable rise in the price of oil and those who believe it will
stabilize about where it is now.
The hawks see gasoline streaking ahead to $4-a-gallon this year and $5-a-gallon in 2012.
Others say demand will collapse and it won’t go that high. The Energy
Information Administration is very conservative in its forecasts and it
gives very high prices only a 10-percent chance of coming about.
Adding to the confusion is a nasty little spat between the
International Energy Agency in Paris and the Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries over price, inventory and what OPEC calls “technical
factors,” such as pipelines down for repair or the loss of the Deep
Water Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico last year. IEA is saying that
OPEC is keeping its production quotas low to jack up the price—currently
just over $90 a barrel and the highest grade Brent crude from the North
Sea as high as $99 a barrel—and it is endangering the global recovery
with its actions.
But OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri has taken issue
with the IEA for roiling the markets with weak data and speculation.
“Supplying the world’s media with unrealistic assumptions and forecasts
will serve only to confuse matters and create unnecessary fear in the
markets,” he said.
OPEC, which drastically cut back its targets for production in 2008
with the collapse of the global economy, has, in fact, increased its
production by 2.3 million barrels a day while formally not changing its
declared targets. OPEC controls about 42 percent of the world’s oil
production.
What is certain is that world is slurping up more oil than ever. The
latest IEA prediction is that daily consumption is increasing and will
reach 89.1 million barrels a day as the recovery proceeds. Emerging
markets and China in particular are held responsible for the surge.
With the exception of two of the savants of the oil industry, the
legendary T. Boone Pickens and former Shell Oil Company chief John
Hofmeister, comment in the United States has been muted. When asked why
the price of oil was so high despite the recession, White House Press
Secretary Robert Gibbs brushed aside the question, recommending the
reporter ask the secretary of Energy, a physicist who has not spoken on
oil pricing.
Jack Gerard, president of the American Petroleum Institute, did not
offer an explanation when he was asked the same question at a meeting in
Washington.
The fact is that the price of oil is not determined only by simple
supply and demand but by complex premiums and market sensitivities. It
is a market that is roiled by wars and rumors of wars and, because oil
was the first truly globalized commodity, the premiums can have their
genesis far from the futures markets of New York and London.
Uncertainty in Russia, turmoil in Central Asia, the ongoing suspense
of Iran’s nuclear plans and even corrosion in the Trans Alaska Pipeline
System are cranked into the price. No wonder so many hedge funds are
involved in oil. Instability is mothers’ milk to hedge funds.
There are left-wing blogs that maintain that the price of oil and its
occasional spikes are created by elaborate speculative plays on the
futures markets in New York and London. The left is traditionally
paranoid about oil and oil companies, but who is to say they are not
right this time? The memory of Enron is still fresh.
One way or another, two things stand out: The chances are that the
summer driving season will put pressure on gasoline prices this year,
after an extremely cold winter all over the Northern Hemisphere. The
conservative (10-percent chance of happening) scenario by the Energy
Information Administration says $4-a-gallon gas would come at the end of
the summer.
The second reality is that the world thirst for oil has not been slaked; as the world prospers, the greater that thirst.
In 1974, the heads of 23 democracies lost their jobs because of surging energy prices. Obama, beware.
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Uhhh...because a nuclear reactor won't fit in the gas tank of a '69 GTO?
Dunno how you kept your cool in the face of such idiocy, man.
WHY HAST THOU DELIVERED US INTO THE HANDS OF THE PHILISTINES
I try to be reasonable, I figure that I have a better chance of illuminating the situation that way. Sort of akin to Ruppert and his 100th monkey parable in "Collapse"
Sometimes, I do say fuck it and fire with both barrels. Call it a blend cartharsis and getting up on the wrong side of the bed...
loved that 100th monkey thing. Too bad our living standards will be about the same as theirs when it finally clicks
Your mileage, based on 6 people, ain't all that bad. Have two more kids and you will be getting hybrid numbers!
LOL. Thanks, but no thanks, Hulk! Will 4 more get me moped numbers? Nevermind, I got fixed. (Yeah, as if I was broken before).
I'm gonna go out on a limb and bet that the Tahoe is at full capacity < 20% of the time it's on the road. He'll have to compete with the Duggar tribe to get better than 30 mpg.
I have a civic and a suburban and a crv, 3 snowmobiles, 2 - 4 wheelers and a minibike.. FU
Bin Laden thanks you for your support, jihadi.
Bin Laden died many years ago of kidney failure. Time to come up with a new boogey man. Besides, the CIA is running out look alikes.
Sure, and radical Islam took their ball and went home as a result?
He's an icon (martyr?) for their (thoroughly fucked up) belief system and (was) a causal link between the House of Saud, their oil money, and people like KSM.
Bin Laden and his videos from cave land do not scare me, I am sorry they frighten you. To remedy your fear, go to the nearest airport and have your sack squeezed and you will feel all better, safe and cozy in Janets warm embrace..
Libruls want it both ways as always. We created Bin Laden and his cohorts and we support them with fueling our advanced civilization. The only way to please Libruls is to leave the oil in the ground and wear sackcloth and ashes..
I am an apex predator and I intend to stay atop the heap, as Trav recommends above I will embrace all to remain right there..
"I am an apex predator"
No, you are a fucking dickwad.
Way to help the terrorists, asshole. And why did you have to have FOUR kids? Oh yeah, you have a 'right' to breed indiscriminately and then complain about how much it costs incessantly. Human cockroaches.
I'm sure your noble efforts to go childless to save the world will be lauded by no one as you grow old and toothless and lonely and die. God Bless!
in the brave new world, idiots like you will be prevented from reproducing. Our species can no longer afford such indulgences.
Calm down and check worldwide demographics the world will begin shrinking population shortly to coincide with peak everything and we are all gonna die.. Europe is dying and shortly Africa and other areas will begin to drop i n population much faster than normal attrition..
You sound like the Goracle from atop Mt. Olympus "our species" ha
One (and only one) well cared-for son who will probably be just as annoyed with your brats as they guzzle gas like their ignorant daddy did, assuming they aren't killed in some idiotic war to protect the flow of the resource you're squandering.
Oops no room for us, I may impregnate you.. By the way, the mass of humanity would fit in texas, easily.. Out of my bedroom you ingrate, don't reporduce perfect.. Remember suicide is always an option for you, it is awfully depressing after all :(
Last time I looked the true terrorists are in WDC. Sure, let's bring the Chinese one child policy over here along with their "execution vans". Web search it. That'll control our population and set us free!
And that right quickly, God willing
Hold me Trav I'm scared..
Dude, I hope you are just saying these things to back up your argument. Which you have some good points on, although I do not share your opinion. And for the record, I did NOT junk you.
Love Americans who live up to the stereo type.
I agree, but you have to admit there is something efficient about driving around in one's own coffin.
Drive 55? I don't think so.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvV3nn_de2k
Goodness, anything by that stupid "55 mph" speed limiit thing. It is written in the constitution that we can drive as fast as we want. Its one them thar "inalienable" rights:)
My crotch rockets gets 50mpg while doing 110mph, so I'm with you on this point.
Not even close. We import fuckin 14mbpd, dude...learn your data and stop the fantasies
Doom Obama? Hell, he WANTS high oil and gas prices. His own Sec Energy Chu was quoted as wanting $7-$9/gal gas prices.
Obama is caught between his brainwashed ideologic socialist fantasy utopia and holding on to power, playing golf, and being a celebrity who doesn't want to do any work.
I'm giving you a big, fat junk for failing to understand the difference between socialism and fascism.
Hitler didn't see the difference either, or Hayek.
Here's the difference. Fascism or Nazi ism = National Socialism.
Communism = International Socialism
Populism = American Socialism.
Other than that they are the same thing.
in modern practice all the labels seem pretty meaningless to me...except criminal enterprise
Wow... did you figure that out all by yourself or did you read it from a "Bazooka Joe" cartoon?
Instead of listening to Glen Beck for your political philosophy, I strongly recommend
http://www.amazon.com/Twentieth-Century-J-M-Roberts/dp/0786116625
What we have today in America is "Corporate Fascism" out of the Mousillini (sp) model. This really struck me when I was watching on TV a huge policital convention in NYC. Outside a hovering Fuji blimp was feeding crowd info to fed goons on the ground looking for "white" Al Qaeda. Corporations and offshore banks have bought our government.
That is spot on and so blindingly obvious that the mere fact that most people don't get it, is terrifying.
Who cares what the differences are? If your freedoms are stolen the methodology by which they are taken matters not.
exactly, well said
Screw oil, the cost of food-on-the-table will screw us all and the ('r's)& (D's). We need a new plan.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/8288555/Authoritarian-governments-start-stockpiling-food-to-fight-public-anger.html
Read about the Roman grain trade, helluva of a basis for what is currently happening
ZH doesn't do politics very well
because those that do 'politics very well' are just singing to their own choir
I just left a political meeting winding down here with some beam and some batting practice.. Politics is not easy, it is very messy and it is the art of the possible, not just a libertarian fantasy of man..
Politics shouldn't be "done well" it should be done bluntly...and that's always messy.
Doing politics well is just another way of saying "lie and obfuscate". We don't need anymore of that. thanks to our government and mainstream media, we're all stocked up on lies and obfuscation.
It's time for the brutal ugly truth. If you don't want to hear that...then see if you can find a vacant spot in the sand to bury your head...Incidentaly, that's one real estate market in which vacancy may be hard to come by.
for the most part, political people do not understand financial markets. They're not owned by the banksters as much as they fear not knowing something they're supposed to know. Most get around the issue by convincing The Street that federal, law, policy and regulation controls finance. But the real trump card is The Fed. Here Tyler has been spot on. The Greenspan put, the Bernanke insanity is what gives Washington its power, that and one hell of Army and Navy. What more do we need to know?
for the most part, political people do not understand financial markets. They're not owned by the banksters as much as they fear not knowing something they're supposed to know. Most get around the issue by convincing The Street that federal, law, policy and regulation controls finance. But the real trump card is The Fed. Here Tyler has been spot on. The Greenspan put, the Bernanke insanity is what gives Washington its power, that and one hell of Army and Navy. What more do we need to know?
Obama? Meet his biological father, and the probable cause of the expenditure of several million to keep any birth records under wraps. Gaze at the photo. Do a little reading on the topic. You will see the lie and the truth...
Meet Mr. Frank Marshall Davis:
http://www.blackpast.org/files/blackpast_images/Davis_Frank_Marshall.jpg
http://www.theobamafile.com/_associates/FrankMarshallDavis.htm
You're a goddamn fountain of disinformation, aren't you?
The idiot wind is blowing strong today at ZH.
Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Qaida+brink+using+nuclear+bomb/4205104/story.html#ixzz1ClBpaOuS
If only there were an "Al-Quida" and Wikileaks wan not a psyop, that would be some scary stuff.
Yes, I remember when Saddam possessed WMDs too!
Yeah that is bullshit.. those were in Syria days before we invaded, idiots..
Yup, I'm pretty sure that Wikileaks is just a pysop now that they are talking Al Qaeda, which has ALWAYS been a a made-up boogeyman to scare the masses with. Total bs.
Julian " I will release a BOA bombshell in January" that wikileaks, that is so yesterday, he was discredited for not leaking..
Three completely independent drivers of high oil prices:
1) Globally slack or declining production in the face of increasing demand (aka "peak oil")
2) Bernanke's insane money printing devaluing the US$ deliberately;
3) The shrinking real productive sector of the US economy, decreasing our real useful exports while we become ever more dependent on imports - devaluing the US$ incidentally.
There will always be noise in daily or monthly prices, but the trend is blindingly obvious. Only a global plague could reverse it, and even that is debatable.
Sorry. Your post is complete garbage.
Please explain the spike in 2008 oil prices using any one of your three explanations.
2008 was a headfake
No, you're an idiot.
2008 is easy. World oil production peaked and hit an apparent plateau in either 2005 or 2006 depending which numbers you believe. 2005-07 was the height of the US real estate bubble and was a roaring time for nearly all global economies, China especially. Oil demand was rising in 2008 along with apparent economic fortunes, but supply was constained by the global plateau that started on 05/06. US$ money was effectively being printed by the phony RE bubble, which has now been bailed out with Benniebucks. And the US real economy has been progressively dismantled since 1990, greatly accelerating since 2000 with the wholesale destruction of most domestic manufacturing. This didn't all happen overnight. But if you go back to your Red Bull I suppose you can try and catch the next 15-second "long term investment."
I think you need to try staying at a Holiday Inn Express, it would do wonders for you.
Funny you mention that, I stayed at at an Express last night. The chambermaid showed me a graphs of OECD stockpiles that were in freefall in 2008....
More "Peak Oil" crap!!! Good lord!
http://climaterealists.com/index.php?id=6261
Sorry to inform you, but your post is factually incorrect. You should research your data BEFORE you post.
Oil demand was rising in 2008 along with apparent economic fortunes, but supply was constained by the global plateau that started on 05/06.....
Totally wrong. For nearly the entire first half of 2008, as oil was rocketing into the stratosphere, oil inventories were INCREASING, while consumption was DECREASING. There was a complete disconnect between supply/demand of oil and its price in 2008.
Don't spread disinformation. There is already too much of it around here.
Here we see inventory, slowly declining from Aug 06 to Sep 08.
http://www.individualglobalinvestor.com/images/Blog_pics/May18_09_Oil_Pr...
And here we see demand outstrip supply from Aug 06 to Jul 08.
http://www.individualglobalinvestor.com/images/Blog_pics/May18_09_Oil_Su...
Now go back to the first image again, and see what happens to the price of oil as inventories decline due to demand outstripping supply.
Mucho gracias.
EscapeKey
???
You've proven my point.
Please review this link for better clarity regarding inventories in 2008:
http://www.forexpros.com/economic-calendar/crude-oil-inventories-usd-his...
If you go to the bottom of the historical data page, you will clearly see that oil inventories were increasing for the first half of 2008 (few weekly exceptions), and this coincides with the chart you provided. The green numbers clearly add up more than the red numbers.
Not wanting to spend any more time on this, I cannot quickly produce a similar easy-to-read link for viewing demand, so let's just use your chart:
http://www.individualglobalinvestor.com/images/Blog_pics/May18_09_Oil_Su...
One can also see that demand had leveled and began to decline in the first half of 2008. I will admit the downward slope of demand is not as steep as I originally remembered, but it clearly leveled off and began to slope down.
So....
My point remains perfectly intact: inventories were rising, with demand leveling off and declining - all during the first half of 2008 when oil spiked into the stratosphere.
There was a clear disconnect between supply/demand of oil and its price, especially when one considers how extreme the price movement was. The price had absolutely no correlation to fundamentals, and this explains the mammoth dive of oil prices shortly thereafter.
Umm.. it looks to me that demand is outstripping production for time period in question, 2006- Aug-2008
You also make the error in overlooking the fact that oil is not fungible. If the spare capacity being offered is heavy sour and there is no spare refining capacity for said oil, it does not matter how available it is. Go back and look at the spreads for Tapis vs Brent and WTI over that time.
"
Glad you asked.
Here goes. C&C peaked in 2005. During the boom of 2006-07, global consumption was exceeding global production. This caused a rise in price and began to eat into inventories. Even with the late 07 onset of the collapse, the structural issues in oil had not been resolved. They were only resolved much later in 08 by a collapse in demand.
When slack capacity declines and goes negative and inventories get drawn down, you see serious price increases. It's basic supply and demand
Incorrect.
Inventories were increasing in the first half of 2008, while consumption was decreasing.
It was NOT basic supply/demand.
http://www.individualglobalinvestor.com/images/Blog_pics/May18_09_Oil_Su...
citation needed.
do you mean inventories in America or globally?
Peak Oil Production was in 2005 (other than the spike in July 2008):
http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/txt/ptb1105.html
and
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5395
You must separate out NGL, C+C and "Other Liquids". If you don't understand what I just said, you have demonstrated that you know absolutely nothing about oil production.
For anyone sincerely interested, I'm just finishing the recent book "Oil 101" (available at amazon, like any other book) and it is a very broad and approachable introduction to almost anything you would want to know about oil in general. Those with technical knowledge will see where it glosses over things or is not precisely accurate but it is a valuable reference for almost anyone with an interest.
"Twilight in the Desert" is also a wonderful introduction to oil field technicalities, even if you choose to dispute the conclusion.
Second the book but would like to take a look at yours Max.
This recent lecture by Heinberg is a nice intro for anyone
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gflv7j15fgc
"Twilight in the Desert" is a fascinating book and I would definitely recommend it. However, I have a geologist in the family and after reading it he indicated that Simmons showed a lack of understanding of a number of issues, to the extent of somewhat undermining his conclusions. I don't have a laundry list of those issues. It is very interesting and gets a lot of things right, but it's not dispositive.
Anyway, as years march on the truth is becoming clearer from simply looking at actual production figures from Saudi Arabia and various other countries. It's entirely possible that Saudi Arabia will be one of the most enduring producers anywhere. But that doesn't change the unavoidable conclusion of peak oil, it simply may affect the exact timing of production decline and who gets to rake in global funds as oil gets scarcer. In contrast, the recent production declines for Alaska, the North Sea (UK), Norway (other side of the North Sea, of course), and Mexico are quite real and disturbing.
The supply/demand dynamic is at all times vulnerable to a huge slide. Just look at what happened to commodities in 2008. Do a web search. Multiply that times "10" and I think that's what we are in for before we get to hyperinflation; a quick violent deflationary depression followed by hyperinflation. Remember, we still have 1.5 quadrillion in derivatives that have to be unwound and they "will" unwind.
Sorry..but I don't see a different scenario under repubs. It is a 2 party symbiotic system to maintain power. Why?...members of congress are the only people allowed to legally insider trade. Obama can't pass any legislation without congress. Now granted, the treasury is under the executive branch..but most of the previous underlings from Bush are still there...and of course The Bernanke....
Fiscal conservatism didn't exist under full repub control, nor under full dem. Frankly, both parties should be expelled.
-Term limits for all members of congress
-All laws that apply to the people apply to the legislative, judicial and executive branches.
-Insider trading is illegal for all.
That would be a nice start.
+1
Yes, the dem vs. rep, conservative vs liberal is a false paradigm fed by the globalists to keep us distracted while they steel our freedoms and our way of life.
and a damn effective strategy that one
It is not the cost the fuel, it's the cost of food. While we got adjusted prices down on the commodities train. Other people did not. It's that simple.
The middle east is starting to PAY the price of energy.
//sitting on a deck chair watching the fire burn closer. Got another beer though because internet is back up in Egypt. Very tired...
In the US of A, the average calorie travels 1500 miles to reach the average moron's mouth, and the average ZH reader's mouth.
It gets there via truck, that runs on oil.
You have no idea what the fuck you're talking about. I have it on good authority that storks bring the food. And, further, the great minds at the rand corporation have devised "operation rickshaw" in conjunction with "operation speedy gonzalez" in case the storks ever fail.
Yes, that patriotic organization the Rand Corporation. In one of their simulation scenarios they considered a nuclear exchange between the U. S. and the USSR a success if 10,000,000 U. S. citizens survived the encounter. Now there is an organization we can all be proud of!
would help that looming food shortage :/
Yes, tangentially, with "just in time inventory" Sams & Walmart have just 3 days supply of foodstuffs on their shelves. When the SHTF it will happen overnight. Store water and food to get you through for a few months. No telling when the CIA will plant another false flag.
we can blow up in debt and blow up others far away or we can give out seed, bring back an old profession (no, not prostitution) and return fertility to the soil.
"...support a drilling plan that won't produce a drop of oil for seven years," the ad says.
So we're a third of the way there...don't worry...be happy ;-)
Most of the time it seems like expected geopolitical uncertainty is a huge component of the price of oil on any given day. So here we have a nice little bout of geopolitical uncertainty (in the oily part of the world no less) and...nothing.
I want to know what's up with that...
I mean, oil is up to levels not seen since late '09 (or something like that) but there hasn't been a very big spike in price given all the shit thats going down in N. Africa/Mid East.
Your Uncle Ben has seen to that. That's why the record spread to Brent and Tapis
How much oil does Egypt have again?
More than Afghanistan...
Egypt is a top 30 producer but more importantly controls two transit choke points.
Have is not the right question. Extract is the right question.
They extract/produce 703,000 barrels/day. This is down from 900,000+ barrels/day some years ago.
Remember the Iranian Oil Crisis from 1979? Iran represented just 6% of U. S. imports at the time and look what happened, gasoline lines everywhere. It's a very fragile balance between supply and demand.
Does not matter, after being a net exporter for many years, they are now a net importer. The wheels are falling off
bingo, as you would say. And many have and will join that club, soon
everyone needs to go back and watch this 1983 classic starring jane curtin, susan st james, and jessica lange.
I wish i had more than just the intro. Dont know how I remember this movie, i was 13 at the time. There is a seen in the movie where the U.S. sells California to Japan. really stuck with me. That and Susan St James.
How to Beat the high cost of living.
start @ 18 sec. dont miss @ 2:20
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfvQHOwnX4c
if anybody has any more clips please share.
I've never seen that scene before, thanks.
lol, the cartoon cars eat the women's clothing off at least 3 times in about 2min (not the men, just the women) - can't imagine how that stuck in your 13yr old boy's mind!
gotta love the medium's message, Holly-would.
(that should up your viewings, 124 now, just trying to assist)
How much oil do Tunisia, Yemen, Syria, and Jordan have?
Where is the unrest? How does this affect the price of oil to the upside?
Can someone enlighten me here? All the non-oil people are revolting, so oil production is threatened?
If there's even the slightest political shift in the air of the Middle East it's a threat to global price stability or worse. There's a domino effect taking place right now as little Tunisia was the first to fall. So uncertainty is being priced in, but that's just the start.
Imagine these scenarios (which DC think tankers are loosing sleep over right now): What if Bahrain or Kuwait (also with unrest) demands and get an Islamist republic. Now the oil revenues don't just go to one royal family. So the new regime demands a higher price at OPEC (presuming we'll even still have OPEC in 2011). Or maybe they'll be favorable to CHina's bottomless demand and ship less to the US. Or maybe, realizing that oil production has peaked, they cut the flow by 5%.
All these scenarios destroy the fragile balance that's been achieved for price, quantity and distribution. Any sudden change could mean life or death for certain energy sensitive companies.
If you run an airline or a trucking or shipping company, can you afford not to be hedged against a spike? No. So you buy futures, forwards and stockpile if you can like happened in 2008. And so on across the entire planet. A multiplier effect.
Oil extracting countries know this. They have adopted strategies that all fall into stock managements. All that matters for them is how effectively they can implement those strategies, which draw a lot of pressure onto them.
As I understand it 30% of the worlds crude passes through the Suez Canal on a daily basis. If true, like the Strait of Hormuz, that could be a flash point?
The undoing of Obama will be becuase Bernanke cannot shut off the spigot. $1.5 Trillion deficit 2011. 2012's will not be any smaller. The Fed is the only buyer with that much money.
17% increase in the S&P? It's all inflation.
Keep posting. The real number floats around 16T. Sounds fuzzie. Actually. I'm glad and pleased you have the GUTS enough to stand up and post. Keep em coming. I'll stand by you.
How much oil is in a basketball? lots Barry is one dumb fuck, but he is all Wee-weed up!
There is plenty of oil still out there. No more easy extractions but it's out there. Not all oil is "fossil" fuel. Do you think 25% of the world's dinosaurs and plants meandered to Saudi Arabia to die!? "Abiotic oil" is a reality. Peak Oil is "slick" fear mongering used to justify high oil prices. Like any other commodity oil prices are governed at least in the short run by psychology and/or manipulation, but in the long run fundamentals will win out. But in trading we all know "the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent".
Abiotic Bitchez ! (sorry had to)
And I know it is getting more expensive to go deeper.
But the Abiotic evidence is overwhelming
Compliments of misterno:
Oil being discovered at 30,000 feet, far below the 18,000 feet where organic matter is no longer found.
(wells as far as 40000 feet have hit oil )
Wells pumped dry later replenished.
(look up the eugene island well in mexico)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene...k_330_oil_field
http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf124/sf124p10.htm
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/26/s...?pagewanted=all
http://www.gasresources.net/toc_PetGeol.htm
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Russia/Background.html
Kantrowitz turned to the geologist beside him and asked, "Do you really believe that petroleum is a fossil fuel?" The man said,"Certainly" and all four of them joined in. Kantrowitz listened quietly and then said, "The deepest fossil ever found has been at about 16,000 feet below sea level; yet we are getting oil from wells drilled to 30,000 and more. How could fossil fuel get down there? If it was once living matter, it had to be on the surface. If it did turn into petroleum, at or near the surface,how could it ever get to such depths? What is heavier Oil or Water?" Water: so it would go down, not oil. Oil would be on top, if it were "organic" and "lighter."
"Oil is neither."
They all agreed water was heavier, and therefore if there was some crack or other open area for this "Organic matter" to go deep into the magma of Earth, water would have to go first and oil would be left nearer the surface. This is reasonable. Even if we do agree that "magma" is a "crude mixture of minerals or organic matters, in a thin pasty state" this does not make it petroleum, and if it were petroleum it would have stayed near the surface as heavier items, i.e. water seeped below.
http://www.prouty.org/oil.html
hey peekers, could you please provide scientific evidence how the above events could happen under a oil exclusively as a fossil fuel
theory
the masses believe the fossil fuel theory because that is what has been thought for many years and it's so engraved in their head that this is true. even though they can't explain the above
I suspect that the earth is round theory came against similar disbelieving.
The existence of hydrocarbons on Titon helps. There is 'abiotic' methane all over the universe.
What comes first, the hydrocarbons or the dinosaurs?
http://www.universetoday.com/12800/titan-has-hundreds-of-times-more-liqu...
It RAINS oil on Titon.
"What comes first, the hydrocarbons or the dinosaurs?"
Prokaryotes came first, then the Eukaryotes ... much like Titan.
Titon huh? Is that like what chicks get when they're cold or something?
I notice your link shows a vast methane reserve on a moon of Saturn. I wonder what our expected production rate from those reserves would be.
Yes, Titon.
Oh boy, it is actually Titan.
I am at a loss for words.
Don't try to educate Pan he is from MN, voted for Dayton nuff said..
You do not appear to be a moron. Most Abiotic folks are.
No significant reservoir of oil has ever been found in anything other than sedimentary rock.
I could leave things at that, but you do not seem to be a moron.
Offering up a field that shows some replenishment from fractures generated from changed pressures (extraction changes the rock, which can certainly crack, opening access to other, deeper oil) is not compelling. The only real solid evidence is prediction that always or almost always works. In that context, I offer to you the opportunity to go bid on leases no one wants. It will cost you very little to own them. Then just persuade some abiotic drillers to drill on your carefully chosen lease, and you'll be a rich man, yes?
That, in the end, is the pudding. If there were abiotic oil down there, *everywhere*, you're at liberty to go get permission to drill in central Australia. They will be delighted to have your money to buy some desert leases. Get your drills started and get rich.
If he gets the money for it I'd be thrilled to run the landmen on that play - but only if it is someplace warmer than North Dakota.
Stupid science! foiled again.
You do realize shark teeth were found near Ghawar, right? And that the Ghawar deposit is largely limestone, as in animal shit - they even located fecal pellets.
Besides, even IF abiotic was true, what's the replenishment rate? Will it keep up with demand? And furthermore, if abiotic theory is true, then why is the North Sea a tapped resource?
http://www.investingadvisers.com/articles/Dec04/trouble_in_the_worlds_largest_oil%20.php
http://books.google.co.uk/books?id=0Ug0GdmopWMC&pg=PA417&lpg=PA417&dq=middle+east+oil+shark+tooth&source=bl&ots=yrAetEUitN&sig=vPUQFTelo5CK-zsNBHeDanfY9Js&hl=en&ei=UyRJTcr1J420hAeS282vDg&sa=X&oi=book_result&ct=result&resnum=7&sqi=2&ved=0CEsQ6AEwBg#v=onepage&q&f=false
that is the funny (I meant pathetic) thing about the abiotic theory, whatever the "replenishment rate" is, it's already clear it aint enough
Wanna see something scary in the immediate term...
Cat 5 cyclone off Queensland
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
Cairns is evacuating.
Even scarier !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
in motion...............................!
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html
Here is what it would like if it were heading torward the U.S. in scale..................!
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/storms/yasi-us-australia-crop.gif
My house here in the midwest is swaying in the snow and wind but, in Australia they are saying hurricane/cyclone houses built to withstand this may be at risk. If they are still standing what will the landscape look like around them from a CAT 5 ?
I'm prayin for you Auzzies !
i am watching the AUD right now, even with retarded markets going bid last 15odd hrs, the dump arse Japanese margin traders are piling into the aussie.
...and the biggest storm in history is about to hit australia
holy shit
Oil or no oil Owebama is a one term wonder.
Happening fast. News is out from sources that I cant confirm that al-Qaida has a small nuke. Story started as yellow cake. Maybe just nonsense. Google it
Those are just dirty bombs, which are no big deal, although the mass hysteria over one will get people killed. But DB nothing compared to the real deal...
Long geiger counters
seriously, though, I been meanin to pick one up.
DIY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIHd5USxMVw
I bought a brand new cdv-100 years ago for a hundred bucks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iCszn3N7wwc
What a coincidence. Wikileaks comes out with news that Al Qaeda might have a nuke just at the time that we are hearing about illegal checkpoints on highways throughout the country. Now I am convinced that wikileaks is a tool of the globalists. Seed money for this organization came from the globalists. Problem, Reaction, Solution. Bye bye fourth, ninth and tenth amendments.
Why does this always happen? Incontinence mixed into a trade.
Depends.
Bait and switch scams running rampant.
http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/01/13/item-swap-controversy-hits-maple...
I'd gladly pay $5 a gallon if it meant our Affirmative Action President became a one-termer.
I know an independent oil producer who has spent every nickel of the last two years revenue on equipment. Says he won't pay a penny in fed taxes until that maggot is out of the WH. On the bright side he has been driving new trucks alot.
I'd gladly pay $5 a gallon if it meant our Affirmative Action President became a one-termer.
Well at least you got Rush's homework assignment out of the way.
If you believe Obama wants semi-emergency powers to force americans off gasoline and into electric/hybrid cars, then sky high oil serves his goals. How else can you explain absolutely zero interest by government in natural gas based vehicles which are the most cost efficient of all modes of transport--versus electric or gasoline.
It's more fun to build high $/MW nat gas power plants to feed the grid the juice necessary to charge those extremely short range vehicles.
Here's an idea...just put a taxpayer funded mast & sail on every converted nat gas auto...they'll go like hot cakes ;-)
Of course I'm kidding...I think...not sure anymore.
But you must realize they aren't rational...they converted a ton of vehicles & portable equipment back in the oil embargo days...yes I'm that old..
One word...carbon...they're completely freaked out over carbon...and anything remotely connected to carbon...accept carbon dating (lately that too...tree rings...anyways)...carbon paper, carbon pencils, carburetors...LOL...for carbon based life forms to be so freaked out over carbon has always been something that makes me want to drink something carbonated.
Prolly just me though.
We could place little wind mills on the electric cars and charge em as they drive down the highway. The faster they go, the faster they go!
/sarc
Perpetual motion machines!...eureka!
Can't tell you how many times I have heard people seriously put forth this idea...
if we could only convert the anger to energy, every nation would be an exporter
Instant Karma again comes to the rescue of the poor suffering Bearing.
PERU years ago began converting a large percentage of its Lima taxi fleet (and other cars) to LNG. That's right, little poor Peru runs LOTS of cars on NatGas!
If Peru can do it...
Any of you whiners who say "But, but the infrastructure would cost SO MUCH MONEY..." think that Peru did it. It would be relatively EASY & CHEAP to convert at least two sectors over to NatGas:
1) City bus fleets, city taxi fleets, city delivery trucks
2) 18-wheelers using the Interstates
And we have LOTS of cheap & "green" natural gas, bitchez!
wiki has a nice little page on oil consumption per capita.
Go and look where we are on that list.
Look at who else is near us.
Then look toward the bottom. You should see an immediate correlation.
This cannot be solved by resort to a different expendable resource.
It's a nice fantasy Bearing but nat gas ain't "green" the extraction is terribly damaging, ask any of the people living above the Marcellus Shale who have no more (clean) groundwater.
and it aint gonna last that long