Guest Post: Past Peak Oil - Why Time Is Now Short

Tyler Durden's picture

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
imapopulistnow's picture

Abundant natural gas anyone?

Shell Game's picture

Give big oil a fifth of Jack and Ugly aNGie will start to look good..

Transformer's picture

As a long time believer in Peak Oil, I can tell you that it has been next year since about 2005.  I no longer believe, except to say that it is a self fulfilling prophecy.  What Heresy, you say?  The Russians have been trying to tell the world for a long time that Oil is Abiotic.  The west calls them fools.  However, using their fool theory, they have moved up to world's number one producer.  They have drilled over 352 super deep wells and keep producing more and more every year.

BP tried out the Abiotic theory in the Gulf of Mexico.  Unfortunately, they had none of the knowledge and experience the Russians have, and so bungled it big time.  Super high pressures and temps when you get down below the biological level, to where the oil is really coming from.

As long as the west subscribes to the oil from dinosaurs theory and stays above 16,000 ft, then of course, we can have peak oil.  Don't make some stupid or name calling reply to this until you've done a little research.  Knowledge will shut you up.

Screwball's picture

I have an open mind.  Where do I begin the research you speak of?

Transformer's picture

There were some Russian scientists who were quite upset at Gold for Plaigerizing (sp?) their theory.  Gold was able to pull it off due to the anti Russian sentiment at the time.


AUD's picture

The abiotic theory was first proposed by Dimitrii Mendeleev, of periodic table of the elements fame, in 1877. The abiotic theory has been accepted in Russia since the beginning of the oil industry.

If you bother to look at the evidence you'll see that the abiotic theory is far more logical than the biotic theory. It doesn't mean 'peak oil' is a false doctrine but it shouldn't be automatically blamed for volatile oil prices, a weak & unstable dollar is the more likely culprit.

DaveyJones's picture

yes that's the pesky problem with the abiotic theory, its refresher rate

bigwavedave's picture

Thomas Gold has long been proven to be a plagiarist and a fake. It is from his fraud that Abiotic oil theories have been corrupted. The commenter is correct. It is a Russian 'theory' which has some interesting math and even more interesting geology. Read the original papers. Compelling stuff. 

Rusty Shorts's picture

mm kay, lets see the evidence guy... and the names and locations of those 352 super deep wells in Russia. Since you're are so full of knowledge, walk us through the "Abiotic Oil" theory and how it is formed.

sun tzu's picture

In the 1950's, however, a few Russian scientists began questioning this traditional view and proposed instead that petroleum could form naturally deep inside the Earth.


This so-called "abiogenic" petroleum might seep upward through cracks formed by asteroid impacts to form underground pools, according to one hypothesis. Some geologists have suggested probing ancient impact craters in the search for oil.


Abiogenic sources of oil have been found, but never in commercially profitable amounts. The controversy isn't over whether naturally forming oil reserves exist, said Larry Nation of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists. It's over how much they contribute to Earth's overall reserves and how much time and effort geologists should devote to seeking them out.


If abiogenic petroleum sources are indeed found to be abundant, it would mean Earth contains vast reserves of untapped petroleum and, since other rocky objects formed from the same raw material as Earth, that crude oil might exist on other planets or moons in the solar system, scientists say.

Rusty Shorts's picture

well, i just happen to know where several "ancient impact craters" are.

mkkby's picture

Simple, then shut us up by providing a credible reference.  Oh, too bad... you can't.

The author states perhaps we should invest in conservation.  We should not.  Nor should we invest in windmills, solar or anything other than delivery infrastructure.  The higher prices will bring out market forces, so conservation and renewables will happen organically.  No central planning, please!


CrashisOptimistic's picture

The problem with your theory is . . . you're not very bright or well informed.

The Russians . . . are Royal Dutch Shell.  They are Chevron.  They are BP.  They contract with those western oil companies to do their drilling and production.  Lukoil and Gazprom and Rosneft are not uber oil geniuses.  If they were, they wouldn't be negotiating merger with BP to drill in the Kara Sea.

You don't know anything about this matter.  Oil does not exist in significant quantities anywhere other than where we've been drilling, for the somewhat obvious reason that if it were there, drilling would be there.

Hyperdeep drilling is difficult.  It is not done to get at abiotic oil down deep.  It is done because salt geology puts oil in those rare locales where Thunderhorse is pumping and near Tupi.

Nevermind, you won't understand.  Just move on.

Transformer's picture

I guess no one here knows how to use google.  2nd google item:

The modern Russian-Ukrainian theory of deep, abiotic petroleum origins is not controversial nor presently a matter of academic debate. The period of debate about this extensive body of knowledge has been over for approximately two decades (Simakov 1986). The modern theory is presently applied extensively throughout the former U.S.S.R. as the guiding perspective for petroleum exploration and development projects. There are presently more than 80 oil and gas fields in the Caspian district alone which were explored and developed by applying the perspective of the modern theory and which produce from the crystalline basement rock. (Krayushkin, Chebanenko et al. 1994) Similarly, such exploration in the western Siberia cratonic-rift sedimentary basin has developed 90 petroleum fields of which 80 produce either partly or entirely from the crystalline basement. The exploration and discoveries of the 11 major and 1 giant fields on the northern flank of the Dneiper-Donets basin have already been noted. There are presently deep drilling exploration projects under way in Azerbaijan, Tatarstan, and Asian Siberia directed to testing potential oil and gas reservoirs in the crystalline basement. (

It appears that, unbeknownst to Westerners, there have actually been, for quite some time now, two competing theories concerning the origins of petroleum. One theory claims that oil is an organic 'fossil fuel' deposited in finite quantities near the planet's surface. The other theory claims that oil is continuously generated by natural processes in the Earth's magma. One theory is backed by a massive body of research representing fifty years of intense scientific inquiry. The other theory is an unproven relic of the eighteenth century. One theory anticipates deep oil reserves, refillable oil fields, migratory oil systems, deep sources of generation, and the spontaneous venting of gas and oil. The other theory has a difficult time explaining any such documented phenomena.

and here:


And for those of you averse to reading, here's an interview with Fletcher Prouty



And here's a site with a ton of references.


If you really want to know, just keep searching.  The proof is that Russia is now the worlds largest producer.  Just 6 years ago, to predict that any country would surpass Saudi Arabia, would be called Heresy by the very people who predict Peak Oil.  But remember, as long as the west sticks to the fossil theory, the price of oil goes up as the supplies get used up.  The Russians don't care, they just keep increasing production.  They long ago gave up on trying to convince the west.  I imagine at this point, they have no interest in convincing the west.  They get to sell abiotic oil to the west, at fossil fuels prices.  Good deal.

You know, it's one of those theories, "fossil fuel", that the world will look back on and laugh about in the future.



The Swiss Genome's picture

Nice work Transformer.

Glad to see others understand the situation . . . . .

Ignorance is Bliss !

Rusty Shorts's picture

Well, I was hoping for some peer reviewed research papers on the subject instead of an Huffington Post article.




Transformer's picture

So, the Huff Post article was the only one you read?  Stick your head back in the sand.

Rusty Shorts's picture

Dude, seeking alpha? michael rupert? are you kidding me?


Let's see some PEER REVIEWED RESEARCH PAPERS on "Abiotic Oil"  ...

Transformer's picture

Do you read Russian?  There's a couple peer reviewed articles mentioned in the above piece.  Only problem is they're in Russian and not generally available here.  Slightly conspiratorial, but do you think it might be possible that scientific papers from Russia have not been given a lot of attention in the western world?

There's plenty of data there, if you want to search it out.  But of course, when your belief system depends on certain data, it's very hard to look at something that contradicts.

Of course, if you would like to explain how Russia became the world's largest producer, I will listen.  AND, the problem would seem to be that when you start reading about how Russia got there, they talk about deep wells and Abiotic oil.   But then maybe they're just trying to throw us off with a pasal of lies.  Those damn Russians.  Seems all they're good for is teaching guys like LHO how to be an expert marksman, and sending spies over here.

I realize that the very idea of Abiotic oil is calamitous for the whole progressive idea of how the world works and is coming to an end.  Peak Oil is kinda like Global Warming in that it makes a lot of money and power for those in control.  Yep, it's those damn elites again.  You don't suppose they might have a vested interest in Peak Oil?  Wars and more wars, not to mention $150 oil.

It's tuff to look behind the curtain.  Our pet theories don't always work out the way they are suppose to.

Transformer's picture

Rusty Shorts, Did you check out those peer reviewed article listed in my first reply?  Hard to find huh?  Even harder, to accept the idea that there might have been a huge scientific community of geologists working on theories that the west knows nothing about?

About a year ago, I got into an argument on line about 911.  some guy was just adamant about peer reviewed articles in a rcognized science journal.  Nothing else on the internet had any value to this guy about 911, unless it was in a peer reviewed paper.  So, I sent him the info on the thouroughly peer reviewed paper published by 9 eminent scientists where they had found extensive nano thermite in all dust samples tested from around ground zero.  He never even replied after that.

If you're looking for peer reviewed article about Abiotic Oil in western scientific journals, you won't find them.  I have read that such articles were translated and submitted back in the 70's and 80's but no upstanding western journal would print such fool theory geology, from the Russians, no less.  And as I pointed out, the Russians don't care what we thiink of their theory.  They just produce more oil than Saudi Arabia, using that same fool theory to find the oil and get it out with chrystal basement deep wells.

Results trumps theory every time.

DaveyJones's picture

Strange that we blew ourselves up to build the biggest embassy on top of stuff that regenerates

Ben Dover's picture

I've begun listening to the video, but likely won't have time to read any of the pieces you referenced.

Instead, let's try the ZH acid test - how much money do you have invested in this?

Transformer's picture

Invested in what?  Oil wells deeper than 16,000'?  Why I own lots of them. I'm a Russian Oligarch, who bought up some of the state owned oil infrastructure after things collapsed in '91.  Naomi Klein mentions me in her book.  /sarc

Uhh... let's see.  I'm trying to think of some possible way that I could have a financial investment in Abiotic oil, you know, to be clever... but I can't think of anything.  The coolest thing here on ZH is to be clever and funny. Maybe I could have sold short BP last year at just the right time, after their Abiotic experiment, only I didn't.  What little bit of investment I have is in PMs.  And I don't have a book out, or even a book deal.

Maybe you could tell me how one could be invested in this?


bigwavedave's picture

Transformer... Just give up. You provided enough information and Google can find the the original Russian papers I read 20 odd years ago.

They even did some compelling lab experiments decontructing and reconstructing hydrocarbons across the 'spread'. Very nice work and I for one am not surprised they are succeeding.

AnAnonymous's picture

Of course, if you would like to explain how Russia became the world's largest producer, I will listen.


Why would they not become the largest extractor?

As you reject the idea of oil as a finite resource, it still remains that oil is a limited resource and over a period of time, numerible.


So what? Why management of stock? Why should all oil extractors play the full open taps script without concerning themselves of regulation?


Your comment, it means nothing. Take a race. Stamina is a limited resource over a race. Stamina can be rebuilt though.

Now sometimes, a racer lets another racer take the lead in order to let him grow tired faster.

Why should all oil extractors run the race at full speed without concerning themselves with their capacity to sustain the effort?


So the answer on why Russia has become the number one oil extractor is because other extractors did not take up the challenge, they let Russia beat them as they manage their limit.


And please consider it is about limits, not about finite/infinite. Your comment on Russia taking the lead makes no sense either in a biotic or abiotic context.

Now matter what, oil extractors are bound to manage their limits, leaving them to let others take the lead willingfully.

knowless's picture

best skeptical summary i could find (just a summary of the debate):

Transformer's picture

Thanks for that.  I think that piece is one of the first I read about the subject.  It's a good one.

Ben Dover's picture

Thanks. I'll take a look. 

CrashisOptimistic's picture

You're failing badly.

Why not drill anywhere?  Why pay geologists to examine seismic studies.  If it's hyper deep anywhere coming up from the core, then why is there ever a dry hole drilled (as 2 of every 3 drilled are -- even *with* the seismic studies)?

How does this play out for Ghawar?  Did the seismic studies, carefully looking for NO openings downwards and none in the cap, somehow miss gaping underground canyons that flow this magical abiotic oil upwards into the field?

And if that is what happens, why do fields ever die?  Why does production every decline from a field?

Why are you doing this to yourself?  You're killing your kids.

tmosley's picture

Uhh, because it is going to accumulate in some places, whereas most of it simply seeps out to the surface and is oxidized into CO2 and water by oil eating bacteria?

Why do aquifers ever run dry?  All that water must have been produced by bacteria a billion years ago, and will never bee seen again.  Underground geology isn't complex or anything.

Transformer's picture

You know us arrogant westerners tend to think that all technology has been originated here.  I would like to think that there are vast new territories of technology to explore and develop.  The Russians have gone off on some other tangents, not just Abiotic Oil.  Here's one that most people know nothing about:

tmosley's picture

Suggest people read up on this as well:

Phage is the future for antimicrobials.  Antibiotics are a dead end.

trav7777's picture

The Western Oil Majors develop all the fields in Russia; it's been that way since the collapse.

sun tzu's picture

Who the hell is drilling off the Cuban coast for oil, shit-for-brains?

trav7777's picture

WTF does that have to do with Russia, fag?

tmosley's picture



Ok, to start, Trav wants Eugenics to be practiced.  He wants to "save" us from starvation caused by peak oil.  This is why he will NEVER accept the fact that new technology can every be implemented, and will deny facts that  are shoved right in his face (ie ionic liquids), or acknowledge the possibility of any form of nuclear, wind or solar application--even with another 20, 50, 100, 1000, or a billion years of research.


Fri, 02/18/2011 - 15:49 | 

trav7777 (Total Score:1)


wtf is wrong with eugenics?  Why should we condemn the cretins to a future of starvation?  Likewise, humanity as an institution, cannot afford to have itself breeded back into the stone ages by cretins.

genocide of inferior populations is in fact an evolutionary MANDATE




More eugenics bullshit:


by trav7777 

on Sun, 03/06/2011 - 22:18



You're an should not reproduce.


The SB IQ test was not in ANY WAY intended to promote eugenics.  IQ tests have literally nothing whatsoever to do with a DESIRE to promote one type of person over another.  Some people may have seized on them in order to justify such a promotion- in case you didn't figure out by what I said earlier, moron, I AM ONE OF THOSE PEOPLE.  I pretty clearly stated as much, so if you think you are going to say OMG RACISSS EUGENICIST and I am going to, what?  I'm gonna fuckin deny it when I JUST SUGGESTED IT?


Does it occur to you that east asians have the HIGHEST average score on these exams?  WTF, reality shits on you again.  I am not east asian, btw.  But it doesn't matter, as a general case does not speak to a specific one. 


Besides, the low IQ races underperform in every test of cognition, not just SB.  Pick a test.  The reality of subsaharan Africa is that intelligence there is exceptionally low, which is why people walk miles for water instead of building pipes and why it has no history of even the indigenous written word.


My race or sex has nothing to do with me; I am an individual.  It is a matter of fact that whites and males have substantially higher sigmas to their IQ distributions than other what?  You may be a white male and you are still an idiot.  Being a white male doesn't endow you with the genius IQ of other white males by the virtue of the irrelevant color of your skin.  That skin covers an idiot.


NO race norming would be performed for a reproduction threshold; the tests are race-blind.  The reason africans average lower scores is because africans have lower average cognitive capacity.  This is just simply the way it is.


Math and abstract reasoning are not racist, you sniveling idiot, and IQ tests are not crafted to reflect memorization.  JFC, they give these tests the world over.  Do the world a favor and attempt to become educated.


For you to claim that there is a "white" and "european" intelligence is utterly absurd.


reply flag as junk (0) 


by trav7777 

on Sun, 03/06/2011 - 22:25



the vast majority of people cannot understand geometric compounding.


So maybe we need to set the bar at 140; whatever.


The population needs to decrease and get smarter.  If at that point, we have to craft a BNW type outcome, fine.


Grow OR die leads to death because growth CANNOT continue forever.  I am a bacteria at 10 minutes to midnight sounding an alarm.






Now, he brings up the fact that blacks have low IQs.  Funny, considering that was the explicit distinction he picked for forced sterilization.


by trav7777 

on Thu, 12/30/2010 - 23:52



YES, some races are BETTER than others, if you want advanced medicine, electricity, the written word, the computer, the lightbulb and all the rest of that shit.


WTF is wrong with you people?  Especially that uncle tom apologist with his "RACISSSSS" epithet in the previous post?  I mean what.tha.fuck??


Look at HISTORY.  Which race is it that the people who invented EVERYTHING AROUND YOU came from?  And in the sickest of ironies, people from that race actually feel GUILT over the fact that it wasn't brown people who did everything!


They welcome  ALL cultures are NOT EQUAL.  I don't LIKE cultures of destruction and misery, of primitivity, like all throughout the brown world.  I don't WANT the ghetto culture of murder and criminality.  I don't WANT african culture that didn't possess the written word until it was oppressed by white people with it or the native american culture that ALSO lacked the written word and the fucking wheel.


WTF is the matter with people these days that they think all cultures are equivalent?  Multiculturalism is a SICK JOKE and a crime against human progress.


The more mexicans we get, the more we are like mexico.  The more the diversity, the lower the average IQ.  DO THE MATH, shit just keeps getting worse.  Diversity is a FRAUD and pretending that all races are equal is a crime.  For example, we continuously hear how bad the US is globally in terms of aptitude tests, but if you examine AT ALL the demographics breakdowns, you see that the bad aggregate score we have as a nation is ENTIRELY DUE to hispanics and blacks!  Yet NOBODY can mention these "hate facts" without having a white uncle tom condemn him as a RACIST.


People who refuse to accept reality as it IS are suicidal fools.




Thu, 12/30/2010 - 22:44 | trav7777 (Total Score:1)


AWSUMZ...I mean taking philosophy and guidance from a fucking wal mart cashier.


I truly WANT genes in my bloodline with average IQs of 85, I mean who wouldn't?


99/100 would choose to have sex, wtf?  And get knocked up by some ghetto thug who will end up in prison and pass on his criminal and idiot genes to the little mulatto offspring who then grow up with a trash mom and no dad?  Sounds like a recipe for technological progress to me, right?  I mean, think of ALL THE INVENTIONS by the brown people over the centuries...all one of them.


WOW...great advice wal mart.  99/100 would choose to doom their kids because they are incapable of constraining their sexual urges; what a fucking catastrophe.  Bunch of freakin whores.  When they can't throw on a pantsuit and go sit behind a desk and pretend to work but still get paid, more selectivity will be employed in mating patterns.


Login or register to post comments






More racism: 


by trav7777 

on Wed, 03/02/2011 - 14:09



huh?  Average brain size of blacks IS smaller.


This is what we call a "hate fact."


Oh and while I'm up, STFU you uncle tom racebaiting fuckstick


reply flag as junk (3) 







So, basically, this sociopath's whole thesis is "kill the darkies, and anyone I don't like because anyone who disagrees with me is clearly stupid".  He wants to sterilize/murder between 50 and 97% of the population, with the explicit goal of exterminating all blacks.  


Can anyone really take this guy seriously with all the shit he has posted?  All he is doing is presenting a one sided argument to try to stir up sentiment in his favor so he can exterminate a bunch of people.  Basically, the guy is a petite Hitler, a fucking monster, waiting for an audience.

So now the mystery as to why this guy so aggressively attacks anyone who denies peak oil, or indeed any of the garbage he spouts, is attacked VICIOUSLY, and without relent.  He will say literally ANYTHING, whether slight fudging of the truth, a half truth, outright lie that seems plausible, or a lie completely out of left field.  I have never seen such a dark purpose behind a series of posts, and the fact that these posts have been made over the course of more than a year is absolutely CHILLING.  This guy is a mass murderer looking for a victim.

And Trav, so you know, I will post this response to every post I see from you from now on.  You're fucking dead to me, save for this post.


The Navigator's picture

And THAT is why I won't post ANY comments after 2 drinks.

God, I hope to remember that rule after 2 drinks !

Fiat2Zero's picture

Regardless tmosley,

You should attack the argument, not the individual, the facts that are pertinent.

ZH isn't a court and you're not trying to discredit a star witness.

If the arguments are wrong them it should be easy enough to dispatch them with logic.

Dismissing "crazy ideas" is a bad precedent as well. The founder of modern atomic theory was widely ridiculed for saying all matter was made of the same pieces. Just another Berkeley crazy (until he was proven right).

For all you who believe only in science, I will remind you of this very famous quote "science advances one funeral at a time," that is it is even more hierarchical in some ways than other social structures (and wrong ideas are kept alive by the powerful scientist).

Attack the argument, not the man.

And remember, history doesn't repeat (but it often rhymes)

trav7777's picture

nothing I said in ANY of Cliff's spam is incorrect.

I challenge ANYONE to dispute them.

Want to dispute average IQs, go ahead, brian size, go ahead, this silly notion of "equality," go ahead.

Mosely-claven can't, so he just throws them out and expects likeminded pavlovian lemmings with their conditioned political correctness to say ZOMG, RAYCISSSS.

tmosley's picture

I have torn down his arguments a thousand times over.  He dismisses all science, all experiment, and all of human history.  He is certifiable.  A normal human being doesn't act like that.  I just found out why--he wants to murder between half and 95% of the human race.

Pope Clement's picture

Rusty- Anonymous peer review is a most despicable censorship device - fuck those silver backed trogolodite academic pussies who avoid taking responsibility for their views and reviews. 

Zedge Hero's picture

Let's not forget that the Soviet Union fell in 1991 and then 4 to 5 years later they started to produce more, so it's to say how long did it take for new oil (WESTERN) technology that had been absent for decades to finally come to Russia and vastly improved their falling oil production.

In the two years before the Soviet collapse they lost two millions barrels in two years with this abiotic crap theory at hand.  Soviet Union falls and then they produce more with west tech at hand.  Simple history.

Look again at the chart- the USSR was producing 8 million more barrels than Saudi in 1985 and they are trying to close back in on their old Soviet highs of production.

Anybody who seriously uses abiotic THEORY just needs to pick up a history book.

Abiotic is idiotic

HedgleeDooRight's picture

Crash, Let the little retarded clowns chase their abiotic oil fantasies.  Let them chase jet contrails, and unicorns. 

Life is too short to waste one's time on the slaying of the slain more than once. 

sun tzu's picture

Keep your heads up each others asses while discussing the flat earth. You're learning alot that way. We don't want to waste our time on your chicken little stupidity



Saturn's smoggy moon Titan has hundreds of times more natural gas and other liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves on Earth, scientists said today.

The hydrocarbons rain from the sky on the miserable moon, collecting in vast deposits that form lakes and dunes. This much was known. But now the stuff has been quantified using observations from NASA's Cassini spacecraft.

"Titan is just covered in carbon-bearing material — it's a giant factory of organic chemicals," said Ralph Lorenz, a Cassini radar team member from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. "This vast carbon inventory is an important window into the geology and climate history of Titan."



From NASA:


Titan's Surface Organics Surpass Oil Reserves on Earth

Saturn's orange moon Titan has hundreds of times more liquid hydrocarbons than all the known oil and natural gas reserves on Earth, according to new data from NASA's Cassini spacecraft. The hydrocarbons rain from the sky, collecting in vast deposits that form lakes and dunes. 

The new findings from the study led by Ralph Lorenz, Cassini radar team member from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Laurel, Md., are reported in the Jan. 29 issue of the Geophysical Research Letters. 

"Titan is just covered in carbon-bearing material -- it's a giant factory of organic chemicals," said Lorenz. "This vast carbon inventory is an important window into the geology and climate history of Titan." 

I suppose the oil and methane on Titan came from dinosaurs and algae too? Go away, stupidass.

trav7777's picture

METHANE is on Titan, not crude oil.  Idiot