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Guest Post: The Past Week From A Lindsay Model Perspective
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this 28 point pattern is taken straight out of John's a$$. I have one with 27 and another one with 29 points. And they both reset and repeat themselfs.
If there are one class of people that seem to be all over the charts..besides economists,....are technicians.
is this ZeroHedge's way of proclaiming the bear market over?! this post seems so out of character.
-Dennis Kneale
I'm the wiz, I'm the wiz, I'm the wiz.
-Dennis Kneale
I wish you had include that Seinfeld clip- I laughed at just my memory visual though. Bravo.
Just one way to look at things from a technical view. Fundamentals of our economy do not support this and as such, take this with a grain of salt.
On the other hand...Until *GoldmanCrack* is forced to trade with their own money and NOT the backing of the goverment...You can bet this will go on longer than you can imagine. This is a very dangerous situation we are in now as this very same issue will lead to a crash if it is not stopped. As usual, the government will fail to recognize this until it is too late.
Thus, I trade futures only. I do enjoy providing liquidity on the downside!
Of course as Benjamin Graham and W Buffett will attest, markets are manic. They swiig from extreme optimism to excessive pessimism all the time and thus are always trading at levels that are far beyond anything supported by fundamentals, wshether to the upside or downside.
An old market axiom says the nature of the manic market is to do the most damage to the greatest number of participants as possible.
It is fallacious to think the market seeks out some point of equilibrium in line with some set of user defined constants. One must be careful not to invest or trade in accord with principles of equilibrium. The only thing the market cares to discover is how high is high and how low is low.
John Bougearel
Thus, I trade futures only.
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hmmmm? how is that a "thus". You should "thus" not trade at all.
I am a very proud shortseller... Thank you!
Gibberish. It's pretty clear the flying reverse batman formation will lead to an inductive triple lindy. Amateurs, freakin' amateurs.
Hansel is right...this point system can't even tell me what I am going to eat for lunch
Obviously you are not a chartist - The chart tied the room together, man. And as for lunch, a press release out of 85 Broad will be forthcoming with that disclosure minutes ahead of your purchase.
I have a slightly less technical count on the 3 peaks dome theme here...
http://thehumblespeculator.blogspot.com/
What a crock. This "Three Peaks and a Dome" BS numbering system shuold NOT be relied on as a basis of any investment strategy. Hey, I use TA to time my entries and exits, but let's face it, the traders who worship technical anaylsis can always adjust moving averages and other data to "fit" the chart, and therefore justify a prediction. Engineers and scientists love to use TA, trying to imply that the market works like a machine with very specific and adhered-to algorithms, but sentiment and emotion play a large part on a short-term basis and that is hard to measure. That said, most tech guys should be embarrassed by this 28-point 'system', which I could have created in less that 30 minutes while eating a ham sandwich. Very low-grade TA.
You are completely missing what this is showing. Time for you to go back to school...
Anon,
Agreed the numbering system is not to be relied on as the sole basis of any investment strategy. It is better used to inform you of the proximate "way point" of the market. Way points or chart points actually help traders and investors develop a feel for sentiment and market direction.
For example, certain chart points have fairly well defined attributes or signatures to them. A common attribute of point 10 declines is that they tend to be rather sharp and sudden (in this case less sharp than I hoped to see as I was looking for a test of 800-825) and oftentimes resolve to the upside on a meaningful shift in sentiment. More importantly, is that the moves off of a point 10 low tend to be fairly substantial in both duration and price and are accompanied by a meaningful shift in investor sentiment.
For instance this past week, Whitney makes a 15% trading call on the long side for the financials. That was a meaningful shift in sentiment from one who has gotten this crisis far more right than wrong. Worth noting in my book. Angst surrounding Q2 earnings too in part causing the point 10 decline, have largely diminished as sandbagged estimates by analysts are helping company beat expectations. It doesnt hurt that Intel guided higher for Q3. Tidbits of info like this can add up to a new bull leg up off the March lows until the market reaches a new point of apprehension, and the growing fingers of instability increase risks on the long side.
So, accompanying the point 10 low is a meaningful increase in investor sentiment. Sentiment and structure are used in conjunction to guide the investor or trader with his or her risk management decisions. When combined in this instance, this suggests to me that a retest of the bull gap low at 902-907 might be relatively low risk place to look to enter some trades on the long side scaling in down to the GS low at 892. The exit strategy would be the point 10 low at 865, obviously as it would indicate some new risks are emerging causing investor sentiment to swing wildly against the Whitney bullish trading call low at 865.
I think you make measuring optimism, disappointment, animal spirits and fear is much more difficult than it has to be. Markets are continually creating arcs of tension, or fingers of instability that need to be released back into the market.
Defining sentiment and chart points will always remain more an art, the better the feel an artist has for his work of art, the better the results. In the hands of an amateur, however, fuggetaboutit!
John Bougearel
TA Exam Question 1: What's the probability of this 28-point pattern providing tradeable signals? Show your work, including but not limited to backtests, monte carlo analysis, position sizing guidelines, historical examples & datasets.
I'm not sure what makes the markets more predictable, punters thinking fundamentals matter, or chartists convincing themselves they've found a Holy Grail pattern. It's 99% noise.
So basically this says that the market will move a bout 30-40% higher before is collapses again. On a truncated time line we are at point 10 and once at point 23 the market has peaked and should begin its final descent.
At least thats what i think this is telling me.
I am a sagittarius... what does that mean for the markets? Also, Venus will be in alignment with Saturn on July 22... If that lines up with point 13 then it will be HUGE!
The Jerry Favors Analysis (RIP) proclaimed a 3-peak-and-Dome formation many, many years...was spot on although he didn't live to see it....long live TA.
Anon,
I was unaware Jerry passed away, if you have details please let us know in commments.
Met Jerry and his wife about 10 years back in Chicago
Jerry was a greacious man and his wife was more than charming
As somone who pays attention to technical analysis, I wonder in a setting of so few players trading and when one party sees exactly what you do how valid the signals are. perhaps there should be qualifiers on liquidity in the market. You can be sure the goldman boys saw the H & S pattern the same as we all did and hence the crazy week last week. to break the neck line!!!
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