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Guest Post: Peak Denial About Peak Oil
Submitted by Jim Quinn of The Burning Platform
Peak Denial About Peak Oil
It is par for the course that with oil hovering between $70 and $80
per barrel Americans have continued to buy SUVs and Trucks at a rapid
pace. Politicians don’t have constituents screaming at them because gas
is $4.00 per gallon, so it is no longer an issue for them. They need to
focus on the November elections. It is no time to discuss a difficult
issue that requires foresight and honesty. It is no time to tell the
American public that oil will be over $200 a barrel within the next 5
years. Anyone who would go on CNBC today and declare that oil will be
over $200 a barrel would be eviscerated by bubble head Bartiromo or
clueless Kudlow. Bartiromo filled up her Escalade this morning for $2.60
a gallon, so there is no looming crisis on the horizon. The myopic view
of the world by politicians, the mainstream media and the American
public in general is breathtaking to behold. Despite the facts slapping
them across the face, Americans believe cheap oil is here to stay. It is
their right to have an endless supply of cheap oil. The American way of
life has been granted by God. We are the chosen people.
A funny thing happened on our way to permanent prosperity and
unlimited cheap oil. The right to prosperity was yanked out from
underneath us by the current Greater Depression. The worldwide economic
downturn has masked the onset of peak cheap oil. Therefore, when it hits
America with its full fury, it will be a complete surprise to the
ignorant masses and the ignorant politicians who run this country. A
Gallup Poll in August asked Americans about our most important problems.
Where is the concern about future energy supplies? It isn’t on the
radar screens of Americans. They are probably more worried about whether
The Situation will hook up with Snookie on the Jersey Shore reality
show.
It is not surprising that the American public, American politicians,
and the American media don’t see the impending crisis. The organizations
that have an interest in looking farther than next week into the future
have all concluded that the downside of peak oil will cause chaos
throughout the world. The US Military, the German Military, and the UK
Department of Energy have all done detailed studies of the situation and
come to the same conclusions. Social chaos, economic confusion, trade
barriers, conflict, food shortages, riots, and war are in our future.
http://www.acus.org/docs/051007-Hirsch_World_Oil_Production.pdf
The U.S. was warned in 2005. Its own Department of Energy
commissioned a report by Robert Hirsch to examine peak oil and its
potential consequences to the US. The introduction stated:
“The peaking of world oil production
presents the U.S. and the world with an unprecedented risk management
problem. As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price
volatility will increase dramatically, and, without timely mitigation,
the economic, social, and political costs will be unprecedented. Viable
mitigation options exist on both the supply and demand sides, but to
have substantial impact, they must be initiated more than a decade in
advance of peaking.”
The main conclusions reached by the experts who worked on this report were:
- World oil peaking is going to happen, and will likely be abrupt.
World production of conventional oil will reach a maximum and decline
thereafter. - Oil peaking will adversely affect global economies, particularly the
U.S. Over the past century the U.S. economy has been shaped by the
availability of low-cost oil. The economic loss to the United States
could be measured on a trillion-dollar scale. Aggressive fuel efficiency
and substitute fuel production could provide substantial mitigation. - The problem is liquid fuels for transportation. The lifetimes of
transportation equipment are measured in decades. Rapid changeover in
transportation equipment is inherently impossible. Motor vehicles,
aircraft, trains, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels. - Mitigation efforts will require substantial time. Waiting until
production peaks would leave the world with a liquid fuel deficit for 20
years. Initiating a crash program 10 years before peaking leaves a
liquid fuels shortfall of a decade. Initiating a crash program 20 years
before peaking could avoid a world liquid fuels shortfall. - It is a matter of risk management. The peaking of world oil
production is a classic risk management problem. Mitigation efforts
earlier than required may be premature, if peaking is long delayed. On
the other hand, if peaking is soon, failure to initiate mitigation could
be extremely damaging. - Economic upheaval is not inevitable. Without mitigation, the peaking
of world oil production will cause major economic upheaval. Given
enough lead-time, the problems are soluble with existing technologies.
New technologies will help, but on a longer time scale.
The Hirsch Report clearly laid out the problem. It urged immediate
action on multiple fronts. It is now 5 years later and absolutely
nothing has been done. In the meantime, it has become abundantly clear
that worldwide oil production peaked between 2005 and 2010. The Hirsch
Report concluded we needed to begin preparing 20 years before peak oil
in order to avoid chaos. We are now faced with the worst case scenario.
http://www.fas.org/man/eprint/joe2010.pdf
The US Military issued a Joint Operating Environment report earlier
this year. They have no political motivation to sugarcoat or present a
dire picture. This passage is particularly disturbing:
A severe energy crunch is inevitable
without a massive expansion of production and refining capacity. While
it is difficult to predict precisely what economic, political, and
strategic effects such a shortfall might produce, it surely would reduce
the prospects for growth in both the developing and developed worlds.
Such an economic slowdown would exacerbate other unresolved tensions,
push fragile and failing states further down the path toward collapse,
and perhaps have serious economic impact on both China and India. At
best, it would lead to periods of harsh economic adjustment. To what
extent conservation measures, investments in alternative energy
production, and efforts to expand petroleum production from tar sands
and shale would mitigate such a period of adjustment is difficult to
predict. One should not forget that the Great Depression spawned a
number of totalitarian regimes that sought economic prosperity for their
nations by ruthless conquest.
Here is the summary of their analysis:
To generate the energy required worldwide by the 2030s would require us to find an additional 1.4 MBD every year until then.
During
the next twenty-five years, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain
indispensable to meet energy requirements. The discovery rate for new
petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the possible
exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future
efforts will find major new fields.
At
present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up,
with the result that production could reach a prolonged plateau. By
2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy producers
may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current
investment and drilling capacity.
By
2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as
early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.
Energy
production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new
investment if energy demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with
economic growth and prosperity. Efficient hybrid, electric, and
flex-fuel vehicles will likely dominate light-duty vehicle sales by 2035
and much of the growth in gasoline demand may be met through increases
in biofuels production. Renewed interest in nuclear power and green
energy sources such as solar power, wind, or geothermal may blunt rising
prices for fossil fuels should business interest become actual
investment. However, capital costs in some power-generation and
distribution sectors are also rising, reflecting global demand for
alternative energy sources and hindering their ability to compete
effectively with relatively cheap fossil fuels. Fossil fuels will very
likely remain the predominant energy source going forward.
Just this week, the German magazine Der Spiegel obtained a
confidential study about peak oil that was done by the German military.
According to the German report, there is “some probability that peak oil
will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is
expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.” The major conclusions of the
study as detailed in Der Spiegel are as follows:
- Oil will determine power: The Bundeswehr
Transformation Center writes that oil will become one decisive factor in
determining the new landscape of international relations: “The relative
importance of the oil-producing nations in the international system is
growing. These nations are using the advantages resulting from this to
expand the scope of their domestic and foreign policies and establish
themselves as a new or resurgent regional, or in some cases even global
leading powers.” - Increasing importance of oil exporters: For
importers of oil more competition for resources will mean an increase in
the number of nations competing for favor with oil-producing nations.
For the latter this opens up a window of opportunity which can be used
to implement political, economic or ideological aims. As this window of
time will only be open for a limited period, “this could result in a
more aggressive assertion of national interests on the part of the
oil-producing nations.” - Politics in place of the market: The Bundeswehr
Transformation Center expects that a supply crisis would roll back the
liberalization of the energy market. “The proportion of oil traded on
the global, freely accessible oil market will diminish as more oil is
traded through bi-national contracts,” the study states. In the long
run, the study goes on, the global oil market, will only be able to
follow the laws of the free market in a restricted way. “Bilateral,
conditioned supply agreements and privileged partnerships, such as those
seen prior to the oil crises of the 1970s, will once again come to the
fore.” - Market failures: The authors paint a bleak picture
of the consequences resulting from a shortage of petroleum. As the
transportation of goods depends on crude oil, international trade could
be subject to colossal tax hikes. “Shortages in the supply of vital
goods could arise” as a result, for example in food supplies. Oil is
used directly or indirectly in the production of 95 percent of all
industrial goods. Price shocks could therefore be seen in almost any
industry and throughout all stages of the industrial supply chain. “In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse.” - Relapse into planned economy: Since virtually all
economic sectors rely heavily on oil, peak oil could lead to a “partial
or complete failure of markets,” says the study. “A conceivable
alternative would be government rationing and the allocation of
important goods or the setting of production schedules and other
short-term coercive measures to replace market-based mechanisms in times
of crisis.” - Global chain reaction: “A restructuring of oil
supplies will not be equally possible in all regions before the onset of
peak oil,” says the study. “It is likely that a large number of states
will not be in a position to make the necessary investments in time,” or
with “sufficient magnitude.” If there were economic crashes in some
regions of the world, Germany could be affected. Germany would not
escape the crises of other countries, because it’s so tightly integrated
into the global economy. - Crisis of political legitimacy: The Bundeswehr
study also raises fears for the survival of democracy itself. Parts of
the population could perceive the upheaval triggered by peak oil “as a
general systemic crisis.” This would create “room for ideological and
extremist alternatives to existing forms of government.” Fragmentation
of the affected population is likely and could “in extreme cases lead to
open conflict.”
Even the International Energy Agency, which has always painted a rosy
picture of the future, has even been warning about future shortages due
to lack of investment and planning.
http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/docs/weo2009/WEO2009_es_english.pdf
Americans think that the discovery of oil on our soil in 1859 has
entitled us to an endless supply. It is not so. We account for 4.3% of
the world’s population but consume 26% of the world’s oil. As China,
India and the rest of the developing world become economic powerhouses,
they will consume more and more of the dwindling supply of easily
accessible oil. As the consumption curve continues upwards, the
production curve will be flat. The result will be huge spikes in prices.
It will not be a straight line, but prices will become progressively
higher. As the studies referenced above have concluded, the result will
be economic pain, social chaos, supply wars, food shortages, and a
drastic reduction in lifestyles of Americans. They won’t see it coming,
just like they didn’t see the housing collapse coming or the financial
system collapse coming. They’ll just keep filling up those Escalades
until the pump runs dry.
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peak silver just arrived 5 minutes ago!
I guess everyone believes that they can fill their gas tanks with silver!
Because our ever expanding debt based fiat systems will certainly survive peak oil and planetary limits
I passed maf in the detroit publik skewl sistem. My baby's mommy who is also my teacher told me I could whatever I wanted. So I went to community college and got ym associates degree in maf. I can say with black power that our fiat system will work forever.
I nominate "Millennial" for next Secretary of the Treasury.
As treasury secretary. I will do the following in my first day of office:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rW6M8D41ZWU
----
What? Are you bored?
Peak oil is real, it's happening. This is the underlying cause for the current problems.
ALL Peak Oil denier idiots MUST WATCH:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
Watch the fucking series. Bow down.
That's the one! The important take-home messages regarding percentages, exponential growth, and their impact on finite resource allocation distilled into simple terms. Awesome stuff.
Fun for whole family - even the non-sciencey types.
+1.
A must watch for everyone, regardless of their opinion on peak oil.
Are you calling a top?
Also that was a pretty determined move out of no where. Did someone just blow up?
I've been a peak oil denier since the '70s when the bogus theory was first spewed out the pie holes of idiots who do not grasp how oil is produced in the earth's crust or understand the ability of technology to make it easier to find and extract. We have a long way to go until peak oil arrives.
exactly. what junk science.
You were a peak oil denier in the 1970s after the United States' oil production peaked for all time?
Talk about a fucking idiot...wow.
Go google me our production figures in 1970 and now, after all this technology made it easier to find and extract.
Your avatar lends to your credibility. Technology and the thirst for profit will render peak oil meaningless.
Ah yes, technology will save us.
Not long from now, the period through 2010 or so will be viewed as the age of the religion of technology and "free" (ha, ha) markets.
Oil is produced abiotic by the earth's moving crust. THERE WERE NO DINOSAURS living 20,000 ft. down under 5,000 ft. of ocean. Peak oil is a scam to keep the slaves broke & distracted.
I'm sorry, you are simply too stupid for me to be able to help you
Hubbert's peak oil theory has long been scientifically proven.
Abiotic oil is a hypothesis that has never been proven.
That no dinosaurs thing - you know about Pangaea (one super-continent about 250million years ago)?? tectonic plates? the earth constantly moving/shifting?
If the continents have moved that far apart in 250 million years and the planet is something like 4.5 billion years old do you not think that something located on land could not end up being 20,000 ft below the surface?
The World's Deepest Dinosaur Finding -- 2256 Metres Below The Seabed:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/04/060425091449.htm
We're going through enough oil that if it was in physical barrels laid end to end it would be able to wrap around the world (over the continents and oceans) 3 times EVERY DAY!
Biotic oil is a scam to keep the sheep calm.
"The abiotic hypothesis remains just that, an hypothesis which has failed in prediction and so cannot be elevated to a theory. It is completely ignored by the oil industry worldwide, and even within Russia. And that is the final testament to its failure.
you tell it like it is frank_O
everything is liquid, fluid. right, good theory?
frank is frank.
Fuckin A Frank. I suggest to any and all peak oil "deniers" to do yourself a favor. Read a book called "Crossing The Rubicon" and after you have read and doubted it, look into it's source information and you will find out it is spot on. Furthermore, check out Chris Martensons "Crash Course". It really doesn't matter though, the economy is going to crash by 2015 so fuck it.
Technology is the rope we hung ourselves with, oil companies do not produce dick, oil companies pump oil from the earth and destroy it, - and;
All the king's horses and all the king's men
Couldn't put Humpty together again
Rusty, technology is not the enemy. It is what will save us if we choose to allow it. And no, I'm not saying that developing technology that allows us to extract more oil is the answer (or even possible?).
The paradox of energy efficiency (jevons paradox), the more energy efficient technology (capital) becomes the greater the energy it allows us to consume and on a planet of finite resources, extracting resources at increasing rates via increasing net energy gains is suicide. (think todays consumerism/waste times two)
Capitalism as a means to allocate scarce energy via profit is over. End of story. Its fun to watch the free market fall apart here on ZH but anyone who believes we are going back to capitalism 2.0 is a fool and if we ever do see a reset, I honestly fear for mankinds survival beyond this century. This is a one shot deal, if we miss the boat its lights out.
Increasing net energy gains through efficient technology (capital) is dislocating the very species it serves (labor, you and me) from access to its wealth (a fucking job). Today, the world is overflowing with capital and labor that have no means to ever reconnect within a profit system. Monetary profit (individual energy surplus) is dependent upon compound growth/energy consumption. Not possible. And who is going to purchase all our shit when the consumer does not have an income, Jesus, aliens? Debt may have gotten us here sooner but it was inevitable. In fact, I would argue that capitalism would have imploded in the late 70s early 80s. It was wage arbitrage, cheap disposable products, credit cards, NINJA loans, ZIRP, Treasury bonds that only allowed it to continue long enough to build a basic world governance and communication structure through "evil WTO freetrade agreements" before the shithouse went up in flames. I believe the biggest single efficiency factor came about through modern agriculture which made the vast majority of essential human labor (food energy production) obsolete. Look at the great effect more free time and energy had (and does have) on our lifestyles in the western world.From primative man with with basic torque multiplying hand tools/weapons. Agriculture with its food energy surplus that gave birth to money (representing a share of the energy surplus) and freed more labor from the land to produce goods/services. Right up to this point where todays advanced technologies and its greater net energy has turned against us due to the requirement for exponential growth. We live in a global world, we have tapped growth and thus our means to profit out.
I'll just go ahead and say it, Marx was right. No one here on ZH can understand what is happening today without a a complete understanding of the greatest economic text ever written, Das Kapital.
And please, if you read this tmosley, don't start at me with any socialism is evil fucking bullshit you ignorant idealist mother fucker.
Marx's only fault is that he could not see to take his labor theory of value to its purest form.Net Energy.
Labor is work performed by humans (food energy that allows sufficient energy surplus to perform work)
Capital is obviously technology that produces greater efficiency/net energy gains (name your energy source) making labor obsolete and thus, access for labor to even a basic energy income sufficient for survival.
Now let me get back to my initial point.
LABOR AND CAPITAL ARE NOT IN CONFLICT.
In other words, technology is not the enemy until we add profit to the mix which forces competition for scarce energy, forcing technological innovation that eventually displace the "labor commodity".
Eg, In a capitalist utopia (what marx refered to as communism), the efficiencies capital produces frees humans from almost all labor because profit has been abolished. The great net energy surplus (you can think of it as money)capitalism created out of free market competition is shared.
This is where we are today, not in a recession or even the greatest depression. We are at a turning point more dangerous but potentialy liberating than mankind will ever know. The transition period away from profit or slow die off.
We have the global information technology to make this possible TODAY! This is the real new world order. Only question is, what will it take to bring about this new age of unmimited human potential.My bet is a complete economic collapse. Hmmmm.
Greenspan, Bernanke, Obama they are not failing. They either understand that the end justifys the means or they are just unknowingly playing there role in the great stage of life. The future is equal energy income (rations/credits, call it what you like like oneday no need for rationed energy at all) and the abolition of profit and thus, 90% of todays useless employment and an end to poverty, war, racism etc. Thats the plan, just gotta hope the good outnumber the quran burning nationalistic morons (now with extra ammunition).
Marx was not perfect, how could he forsee todays advanced information technology. He would be laughing his ass off if he ever got to realise that the revolution itself was instigated top down by the elite bourgeoisie and not bottom up from the proletariat. Once again the freedom loving nation of the USA must accept the burden of power. As leader of the free world, gaining control over the largest energy taps that will make the transition possible is absolutely vital.
Yes I realise how crazy this may sound (yoink ;-) but think of it this way. In within my lifetime (26yo) computer and electronics technology will be so small, so cheap and so powerful that they are in every product, every building etc and even inside us. We will have the possibility to virtually teleport ourselves anywhere in the world where sensors exist. No actual energy(matter) will move through space but only the information (I hate long flights too). You will not be able to tell the difference because there will be no real difference. That sounds crazy but plausible right, I believe it for whatever thats worth. So does anyone think monetary wealth, ferraris, gucci, 20 different brands of tv's yada yada yada has any real role in such a possible future? Does anyone want another four generations fighting resource wars to protect a life where most young men prefer to masturbate to internet porn than have sex with their girlfriends!!!
But on the other hand, mad max looked like fun too, I wanna be the dude who flys the gyrocopter ;-)
I appreciate your ability to think in the large, your roachness.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCEeAn6_QJo
Try and read between the lines...
Mom is gonna fix it soon haha... Never really listened to much Tool before but I'm impressed...
Here's an electro retro song I recently heard on the radio that I found kinda interesting, revolution is going pop...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzE5dS6fnFk
Impressive writing, yet so.....delusional. All IT does is multiple non productive work by a zillion. No technological save for this crisis..(at this late date, had we started 30 or 40 years ago...)
haha well, that depends on your definition of "productive work"... I won't bother subjecting you to another delusional rant but I will recommend you study the history of the printing press, telegram, photography, film, radio, television and hell, the arts in general... I wonder what Joseph Goebbels would have to say about your comment? How you underestimate the power of a globally connected media centre in the hand of every citizen leaves me just a little bit disappointed with your lack of vision :-(
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ObKpwmZkl24
Great film...
- is that you Obama?
Get used to living locally, and I really do not appreciate those big words you're throwing around.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpAxV6uUxsM
haha...
Yes, local living will play an important role in the transition period (I moved back to the country for this reason last year)... But the long term future still lies in cities, themeselves broken into local communities (no different from today), centred around shared community infrastructure and run by the communitys voluntarily (most people will have plenty of spare time to offer) ... Agricultural and natural regions will become home to more scientists than laborers... My two cents anyway...
These fella's tend to agree...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agenda_21
When we do get over our irrational fears (for many by force) of socialism and its shared wealth even Detroit ghetto's will have a new lease on life... Once the masses of unemployed no longer have to compete for a basic living you will be amazed at how community involved people will voluntarily become and how rich our lives will be... We all have our roots in primative communism and it is our future...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6XAPnuFjJc
Yes, just like it did in the USA in the 1970s.
Your arrogance is exceeded only by your stupidity...
I CANNOT BELIEVE THAT ON ASITE LIKE ZH,
WITH AN ARTICLE WITH CLOSE TO 200 POSTS NO ONE HAS MENTIONED THE MOVIE COLLAPSE WITH MICHAEL RUPERT.
NOMINATED FOR DOCUMENTARY OF THE YEAR.
All should Watch: http://www.disclose.tv/action/viewvideo/50078/Collapse__part_1_/
Thanks for the link.
On a somewhat similar note...Tyler, what are the chances of seeing some of Gregor Macdonald's work here? He digs down into energy issues in a solid, entertaining way. He would make a great addition if at all possible.
alotta people don't want to touch Ruppert because of his 911 work but he did some good work in both areas, areas you can't disconnect.
Crossing The Rubicon was one of the most solid pieces of investigative work that I have read.
Why do you say a lot of people want ignore him because of this?
http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Rubicon-Decline-American-Empire/dp/086571...
Cause 911 truth scares people like molestation in the family most turn away and deny
I understand. Thx.
Jim Quinn... The "MORON"... is in PEAK DENIAL of the False Flag 9/11 operation and it's direct connection to "PEAK OIL".
His blog www.thestinkingshitpile.com is denial central.
Go on over to his blog and post anything about 9/11 Truth and get ready for his obscene responses under his various AKAs.
He censures, deletes and blocks IPs.
Yeah... 'Mr.Free Speech'!
Ironically, peak oil is a major MOTIVE for 911
http://www.amazon.com/Crossing-Rubicon-Decline-American-Empire/dp/086571...
dup
Thanks TD, great work !
The "Got Milk ?" graph rulz !
While I agree with peak oil, the Ruper documentary
was a big disappointment- the guy puts so much
emotion in it, its hard to take it seriosly- kind of
like when women cry...
No Sh*t! I just looked at the Ag chart and I was like: "Damn! - We're within spitting distance of $20 - it had a $17 on the front two weeks ago..."
The next spike in oil is going to be deadly to our shambles of an economy. If we have a bad winter, there could be trouble.
Current assumptions about (persistent) high energy prices at levels much above current are incorrect.
Oil prices much above $20 a barrel are destructive to the current economy which is built around the waste of cheap oil and other inputs. That is, much of what we consider necessary goods were invented specifically to waste fuel that would otherwise have little or no productive use. 'Fun' is not a productive use.
The persistent high price concept suggests that wage- and business earnings will continue as previous, when in fact wage and business earnings (outside the ambit of the Fed and government subsidy) are instead declining.
Oil does not get more expensive, the people who buy it instead get poorer.
Wage- and business earning declines force oil prices lower. Oil that is declining in price is still too expensive if earnings used to buy it decline faster. The greatest growth industry in the US currently is 'poverty'.
At some point the price of oil falls too low to support replacement production. The world's economies are at this point now. What supports waste is the balance of (depleting) cheap oil reserves. As prices decline two things happen:
- priced in oil the cash dollar becomes valuable and is hoarded.
- Declines in production combine with declining net exports (from producing countries) and the shutting in of expensive- to- produce oil to cause shortages. Because the commercial economy is unable to fund replacement supplies due to cost the shortages are permanent.
We are more likely to see $15 oil and 15 cent a gallon gas with few cars and very high unemployment ... than to see an inflationary spiral with high nominal wages (able to afford high gas prices).
http://economic-undertow.blogspot.com/2010/08/give-us-free-money.html
Silver, that's the name of my horse. When there's no more gas, Silver will get you where you're going.
Hi-yo, Silver.
i just got some new classic X-country boots, 75% off. i am ready for alley skiing and fast get a ways. i like your horse, sally.
Hi-Hoe, Silver.
The Post-Oil Man
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QovBLFZhQME
Peak oil is peak BS for peak carbon tax world energy total control by a few players.
Your comment is the epitome of ignorance.
LOL, keep believing the BS sheep.
Have you even seen the Hirsch Report? or the recently released study by the German Military on peak oil? http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,715138,00.html
Taken a look at Chris Martenson's Crash Course?
The US Military acknowledges the problem, as well. They released an army report earlier in the year, which included their thoughts on the topic.
...and one in 2006:
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/13737
Yep, or any of Amory Lovins work on Soft Energy Paths, or his research with the military about "Winning the Oil End Game."
Peak oil and carbon are interrelated, as are all things, but also mutually exclusive. Whatever one might believe about Carbon and its planetary impacts need not have any bearing on their belief about peak or nonpeak oil...
Natural Capitalism.
IgoECO
Yep, the Harvard Business Review article does a decent job of summarizing the book Natural Capitalism, which is available free online.
www.oilendgame.com/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soft_energy_path
I'm not with Lovins on nuclear, but not sure where I stand either. Probably for.
not on higher ground i am assuming. peace, babe.
You are still believing what governments and scientists project without considering their motives?
Peak oil? Fine. Big deal. If I owned an escalade and had a home dependent on all kinds of energy usage I might worry. However, you have to be pretty stupid to depend on outside sources of energy.
This article accepts every government statement verbatim. It assumes nothing will be done to fill the technological vacuum. It is even dated on energy use by country (china surpassed the us in oil consumption).
It is written by people who depend on the government and /or are employed by government to solve their problems. This is the definition of sheeple.
No diesel for my tractor? Wow, I make biodiesel. No gas for my car? Wow, I convert and use biodiesel. Ride a bike, ride a horse, electric car-coal fired generation plants,solar energy, wind generation, nuclear energy, the list goes on.
The world will adjust, the bigger question should be: who gains from the hype? Hmmm, the biggest corporations in the world? Americans are so dumb they get tutored by polish blondes.
yes, i believe the message about Particulates, alternatively referred to as particulate matter (PM) or fine particles and also called soot, hype is a scam. in my old mountain town residence, and even front range cities, they warn over the tv and newspapers. not allowed to burn wood in fireplace or wood stoves, with certain high levels of PM's (not precious metals) in air. they want you to buy gas stoves.
polish blondes, bastards
No gas for my car? Wow, I convert and use biodiesel.
Good luck with that.
Guess he doesn't need to eat
guess he doesn't need to drive either...
http://www.gasresources.net/energy_resources.htm
think we'll run out of seawater anytime soon?
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17632-how-to-turn-seawater-into-je...
from your second link: the complex multi-step process will always consume significantly more energy than the fuel it produces could yield.
So, forget about that.
They're planning to make up for that in volume.
I agree, it is amazing how many people have their head's firmly inserted up their asses.
Yep, some of us idiots just can't accept santa clause is real. You just keep believing in abiotic oil no matter what.
By the way, peak oil is the least of your worries, better worry about peak bullets and peak food stored. In the looming debt default, filling your Escalade will be the LEAST of your worries.
peak food or lack of food isn't even included in that list of:
guess all the americano fatties, don't worry about their body supply fuels, ever drying up. peak death by starvation. only in america, not listing food as the most important problem. ask that same question to the rest of the world and it probably would be first on the list. american's are so complacent about food. cause they eat anything just to stuff their mouth.
G O T M I L K, bitches.
Problem is, peak oil is peak food.
Fertilizer, food processing, irrigation, transportation, etc, etc...
Give that man a cigar! Or, at his option, a bag of rice...
Absolutely. Peak oil is peak everything. And bioplastics likely mean destroying soil fertility. There's not many good answers out there.
Got P E E K Thorium? Ba BE
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/7970619/Obama-could-kill-foss...
Karl?
Wrong! The problem is peak population, not peak oil. Birds, anamials, fish etc do not use OIL-only people do.We are the problem!! My guess would be 5-7 years before we see massive genocide using small nukes so that most dead bodies are fried & thus cut done costs and fear of plagues from unburied bodies. 6,000,000 inWWII, walk in the park. Milestones
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WlBiLNN1NhQ
Try reading down this blog site.
Without an energy policy and without the controls we would grow any way we chose as individuals, throw the gov in and they live good and we run out of innovations. We only use
.01 or .1 % of the power hitting the earth every year if we run out of power it is because we are stupid.
That dose not include what we could do with thorium or nuclear.
Maybe if we all got fighter plains and burned up 1000's of pounds of fuel an hour we would run out but us normal folks will grow with the technology and use it as it becomes available.
http://alfin2300.blogspot.com/
Please explain this:
Houston City Council OKs gas exploration beneath parks
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/7182585.html
Gas exploration? Theyve just tapped the largest pockets ever found, and we're at peak STORAGE, so youre trying to say we're desperately scratching for gas? Nonsense. We cant even find places to store whats already on hand.
I am confused. Your explanation for Houston, America's 3rd largest city, drilling exploration wells in its city parks is this?
Do you know people in the natural gas industry? A lot of them are drilling and supplying all the 'excess' gas as a result of debt repayments. They need the cash flow to keep afloat, hence they are drilling and supplying just to be in business, not as a result of some manna from heaven. 68 countries have peaked in their oil production, including hte US, the UK and Norway. Saudi Arabia appears to have peaked as well, the production profiles are available online.
Bullshit on the US peaking in oil production. If we ever changed the environmental laws here, we would have tons of new places to drill. That arguement is crap...total crap. Try reading up on the Bakken field...
Read my comment below. It's EROEI is not sufficient to justify production on the Bakken Shale, there's a reason these oil deposits have not been exploited, they are simply not worth it, in energy terms. The US is also the most drilled place on the planet and US oil production peaked in 1971. The US is producing about 45pc below it's peak, to get back to 10 million barrels per day it would require 4.5 Million barrels per day of production. That is the equivalent of half a Saudi Arabia. And current Chinese consumption.
Thermodynamics and geo-physics is a bitch but it is what it is.
Oh please. If we needed that oil, do you think we would find a way to extrude it??? You better believe it...... I don;t want to hear crap that anything is not worth drilling for.
Extrusion is a 2D manufacturing process using metals such as aluminum.
Oil shale is mined, not drilled for.
Easy mistakes. Don't let it bother you, Senator.
This IS sarcasm, right?
Any good links on EROEI would be appreciated.
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4172
And many other articles on that site.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WeBtdwPpTQM
Oh god, every time an argument is had about peak oil, that old dog has to be dragged back out again.
- Bakken net energy is bad.
- Profitable shale oil production still hasn't occoured on a large scale.
- Significant engineering challenges exists in this area.
- Absolutely no infrastructure in place.
- Ultimately recoverable from the Bakken field is 3.5bbl. US oil consumption is around 20mbpd, so Bakken should cover the US for around 425 days. If you consider the world, then divide this figure by 4.
And don't forget that to process that crap you need LOTS of water - that we don't have... along with places to safely store all the toxic shit that's left over.
points for both
curb....yes and didn't the usgs find the oil in trillions of barrels???? how big is the field bp blew a gasket on? have they had time to get the figures from the monster field off the coast of brazil????
The field off Brazil delivered an estimate of 25bbl probable. But this is an early estimate, and Petrobras SPECIFICALLY SAID not to quote this figure. 25bbl is a supergiant, but the extraction costs will be huge. 25bbl = 25x11 = 175 days global supply.
And stop quoting bullshit Bakken figures. Head over to wikipedia to educate yourself.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_Formation
google biophysical economics or emergy. then check out Tainter, Homer Dixon, et. al for why societies collapse.
as another posted, it's about EROI as much as anything.
+1 on Tainter.
It's ALL about EROI - every specialized system we employ is subject to the reality of marginally declining returns on our investments.
Absolutely! And his insights on complexity are dead on. All of our complex systems that run on oil...soon won't. Forced simplicity and entropy shall slow us down.
I think we can only hope to decelerate gracefully, to some relatively benign or functionally restorative system like that of colonial agrarianism or the managed ecology of indigenous people. Plus whatever basic technology is required for life...
If we continue to overshoot, the worse of a hit we'll take from the collapsing immensity of dying life. Wait too long, and we're back to earlier Dark Ages.
But not sure what's all that worse than the corporate fuedalism and ecologic outsourcing we're living now.
Understand that peak oil in the US is not so much because we have run out of easily accessible oil, but rather because environmental regulations and NIMBY have made domestic exploration more costly than it would be naturally. Our oil production will rise again after the current regulatory scheme collapses.
In the late 50s Hubbert King called the peak oil production in the US to be in 70-72, and he was right, the US production has been in decline ever since. Had nothing to do with environmental laws or NIMBY, but the behavior of the oil reseviors. Its easier to predict peak oil with accurate data, but the data is manipulated. The reserves of the producers are hidden, the actual price is false (as claimed by "Another"), the entire western petroleum industry is part and parcel with the military-industrial-banking-intelligence-political system. I would simply like to know the true cost of oil. Matt Simmons "Twilight In The Desert," Abdulhay Yahya Zalloum ""Oil Crusaders," James R. Norman "The Oil Card," and David E. Spiro "The Hidden Hand of American Hegemony, Petrodollar Recycling and International Markets" are able to give some insight in to the comprehensive manipulation of the data from exploration, production, refining, distribution and consumption. The basic data available is so rotten I do not see how one can obtain a clear understanding of what is actually happening. But, if you look at just the basics, we see the cost oil rising, consumption increasing, the difficulty in finding new fields increasing, there are only smaller, less economically feasibile fields, the technical challenges in drilling and production increasing, but there is no need to build new refining capacity because there is simply not enough oil to refine to keep the existing facilities operating at full capacity. That is the key. Not only are none of the majors planning or buidling a new refinery, they are shutting down refining capacity.
This is the dumbest post yet!
IDIOT...US oil production peaked in 1970, LONG before any of this NIMBY shit.
our oil production WILL NOT RISE, we are on a 40-year track of nearly unabated decline! The only blip was the coming online of the Prudhoe/N. Slope complex...and even this supergiant field DID NOT REVERSE the trend.
We are truly lost if idiots like you are in abundance...
Agreed.
"We are truly lost if idiots [...] are in abundance."
This is at the very heart of America the FAIL - systemic Pavlovian idiocy.
Production profiles may be available, but their production capacity is not. It's practically guarded as a military secret. That's why "Twilight in the Desert" was eye-opening, because Matt Simmons essentially looked at Saudi Aramco engineering reports, and determined where on the production profile they are, considering the issues they encounter (using reports from other oil fields as a measure of comparison).
@SheepDog,
I remember when the USA ran out of domestic oil, and began importing, it was humbling for the politicians to submit to OPEC...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYkBy81zuF0
- listen carefully to the end of the report, about the bankers who lent money to OPEC
tell me about it...
I work in the sector in Alberta, been sitting on my dick the whole month. Prices are too low
If they hit, the city gets free gas. Sounds pretty smart to me.
The point is that if gas and oil is readily available, then we probably wouldn't be seeing exploration in city parks, or two miles underground under one mile of water.
The low-hanging fruit is gone.
Yes, there is some fruit left high up on the tree.
No, this tree will not be bearing more fruit ever again.
Yes, there are other trees, but this was the biggest and easiest one to harvest, and our leaders have extrapolated our existence on it bearing fruit eternally.
Yes, we all will miss the tree.
Oh, Sweet Jeebus, another one of those who has politics like other people have halitosis. Yes, peak oil is an e-ville librul plot.
I'll say this politely: you're a fucking idiot.
ANYONE who denies peak oil is saying that exponential growth can be sustained forever.
Read that shit again and UNDERSTAND IT.
Yeah, and I bet you believe in Global Warming too......
Anyone who denies Global Warming .....
yada yada yada....
There's plenty going on within our atmosphere
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugHeAAgrW9w&feature=related
GFD, just when I thought you couldn't get any stupider, you introduce a strawman in the form of AGW.
No, motherfucker, ANSWER the post, don't change the subject like a bitch onto global fucking warming.
ANSWER...do you or do you NOT believe that oil production rates can geometrically grow forever?
ANYONE who denies Peak is saying that this is exactly what they believe, that production rates will NEVER hit a maxima and will NEVER decline.
There might be a natural peak some day, but the current one is purely artificial, caused by increasing regulatory and tax burdens in the US. When those schemes collapse, oil production will start growing again.
What a load of fucking bullshit. Are you seriously suggesting the rest of the world go by US regulations and tax burdens? Do you think the Iranian or Angolan government gives a shit about tax implications for IOCs in the US?
The US produces around 6-7mbpd, and imports around 70% of oil consumed. US oil production peaked in 1970, at about 10mbpd. The global oil production is about 85mbpd.
You have a serious deficiency in reading ability. I said the US should drop its regulatory scheme and lower taxes if they want to increase domestic production.
When socialism sets in, as it has in this country over the course of the last 100 years, productive society slows, then stops, then starts to decline. The same profile is followed in all industries, but only to the extent that the government interferes. There hasn't been much government interference in circuit board manufacturing, so production has done relatively well. There has been a crap ton of interference in energy, so production has collapsed. It's very simple.
The rest of the world is still pretty inept at the science.
Then why does it match hubbert's predictions
sheep dog....these so called experts all have an extremely bad problem! what after all the so called science of economics gone bad...global cooling gone bad{circa1970s}...global warming gone bad...scam flu scares...scam medications that kill......yea, the experts so want to be believed, to be remembered for shit work that more than likely has been stolen from other like in the 90's with all those authors stealing the hard work of others. could these people be correct...sure. if i were to advertise that i have 10 million dollars to study why flies like shit how many experts from how many different fields would come crawling out of the woodwork? the experts have a problem...nobody is paying attention anymore! why should i believe these guys vs another theory?
um, because Peak actually happens?
Jesus fucking Christ, why the fuck do you morons THINK that there are ANY abandoned or depleted oil wells out there?
Why did we need more than ONE well? If production will grow forever, drill ONE hole and watch it go up to infinity!
Peak is a "theory" like Relativity or Evolution are. It's a term of art for us scientists and engineers. You laypeople are merely confused and lack intelligence and understanding.
Has it been established that every oil & gas deposit on the entire planet has been accounted for?
The peak phenomena is not about "running out" it's about production not keeping up with demand.
We've picked all the low hanging fruit already. BP wasn't drilling 5 miles down in the Gulf because they were saving the mega-fields hiding under their refineries for a rainy day. As the cost of production goes up, rates of production goes down, and demand rises, prices WILL rise.
Past a certain threshold, it will kill the economy.
The peak phenomena is not about "running out" it's about production not keeping up with demand.
Exactafuckingmondo. It is hard for the average person to get that for some reason.
My personal theory is that because we have all grown up with oil being almost as easy to get as water, it has become accepted almost as a right - or a fact that it will always be there.
frankO, we were conditioned by this statement and accepted it_oil being almost as easy to get as water. cause i had to work very hard to get water, it was very precious. it was developed by companies like P&G, to sell Tide (republicans) or Cheer (democrats). my theory. cleaning products need lots of water. same with showering every day. shaving, laundry, dishes, cars. hell in colorado they use a mag chloride for snow melt. it is insane, like the East Coast using salt. wrecks havoc with metal, environment, human health etc. they recommend to wash your car OFTEN. insane country we have to try and control the weather/environment, to make everything child proof. yeah the good old US of A, is child proofing our lives and the land.
Procter & Gamble is evil.Kathy, did you just say water was developed by P&G to sell detergents? I think that water was around well before P&G.
Just put the cap back on and go sit in the corner.
frankO i am falling in love with you, U know.
i have a very difficult time expressing in words my thoughts in my mind. this is good structuring for my writing skills. i need l o t s of help in certain academic area's of my life. i am gaining a lot more trust, lately, with my new ZH community, though. can you imagine my delete button doesn't function either.
challenges abound in my life, but at least i am consistent with them.
You must like being abused. Forget about academic help, you need mental help. I am attracted to smart girls, and you will never qualify.
point taken, I completely understand.
Kathy, what color is your sun? Ours is yellow....
BULK, that is a relative question. just ask the buddha.
Pot green
weed R E D
Usually like your post even if on the dark side, but if you are an engineer then you should be more optimistic that we could think our way out of this, the problem is not oil it's politics and policy read the chart and do the math there is more energy then we could use in a couple of generations if we can figure it out.
Quite breeding the ignorant, and by that I just mean cut forced welfare, and let the engineers, scientists, business people, and general workers solve there own problems and we will always have more than what we need. But if you have a noose around your neck and have to drag the rest of the world along then you will run out of resources sooner then peak oil could ever happen.
It is not about exponetioal growth it is about growing into your potential, and no I do not mean by stealing it the way we are now or exployting the rest of the world because we have the best military.
Look at the amount of energy in the solar system that we know or guess at right now (much less what we may figure out in the future) and what a small small percent we use then tell me we are running out of energy or just the brain power to extract it.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orders_of_magnitude_(energy)
And energy is only one of the emerging planetary boundaries that shall extinct us as a species, or at least life as we recognize it.
If you like to read, www.nature.com/news/specials/planetaryboundaries/index.html
If you'd rather watch, http://www.ted.com/talks/johan_rockstrom_let_the_environment_guide_our_d...
Into the shitter we go, and it has nothing to do with how much oil may or may not be left.
This is the standard "scientists will think of something" line. The problem is, again, decreasing marginal returns. Put simply, advances yeild smaller results for more money over time. You can see this principal at work in the pharmaceutical industry. The first vaccines were cheap and worked well - now they spend hundreds of millions to swap symptoms.
I used to believe in our Star Trek future - but no more:
See Hoyle's comment on the topic,
"It has often been said that, if the human species fails to make a go of it here on Earth, some other species will take over the running. In the sense of developing high intelligence this is not correct. We have, or soon will have, exhausted the necessary physical prerequisites so far as this planet is concerned. With coal gone, oil gone, high-grade metallic ores gone, no species however competent can make the long climb from primitive conditions to high-level technology. This is a one-shot affair. If we fail, this planetary system fails so far as intelligence is concerned. The same will be true of other planetary systems. On each of them there will be one chance, and one chance only." (Sir Fredrick Hoyle, 1964; emphasis added)
http://dieoff.org/page125.htm [Olduvai Theory]
I'm sorry, man, but I can't really take seriously someone telling ME to "think of something" when that person can't spell properly.
Back to school for you; this time study science.
I've already thought my way out of this, I thought of antigravity and perpetual motion and changing the universal gravitational constant at night to pump water uphill.
Oh wait, that wasn't thinking, that was FANTASY. Imagination DOES NOT TRUMP PHYSICS. You'd do well to embrace that, no matter what bullshit you hear on TV.
There is truth and then there is bullshit. I'm just getting out of an argument with a multiyear friend who said the Tea Party was the modern equivalent of the KKK. Nevermind whether I like a single fucking tea partier or not, that statement is a BALD FACED lie. She claims she's entitled to her beliefs and her opinion, so that I should not criticize nor contradict or in any way, shape, or form, say that what she says is WRONG.
People like this are all around the few of us who understand that there is no such fucking thing as MY truth and YOUR truth, there is only THE truth, and who are able to distinguish between matters of pure opinion and those of FACT.
Peak is a matter of FACT. It has happened; it will happen. Praying and strenuous wishing haven't stopped it yet.
Praying and strenuous wishing haven't stopped it yet.
When god comes down and fixes everything you're going to look awfully foolish. snicker.
There are things which are true for me but not for you. There are things true for you but not for me. And there are things which are true for both of us. In spite of what you say, there is such a thing as personal truth (true for you or me) and there is such a thing as global truth (true for everybody). Folks often don't distinguish between the two when they talk. And if physics is going to be trumped, imagination is where it starts - contrary to what you say. You cannot set about to make something happen without having imagined it first. Even if you are only imagining in small steps. Think Orville and Wilbur Wright.
I assume you already accept these points as true. It just wasn't clear from the wording of your post.
Think Orville and Wilbur Wright.
do you know my most precious possession is a picture of the wright brother's Hawthorne hill home signed by orville wright, to my father. like stupendous.
NOTHING trumps physics, ok?
The Wrights did NOT trump physics, they USED physics. They did not invent antigravity or perpetual motion and violate the laws of thermodynamics or conservation of energy.
I am SO SICK of laypeople talking about science as if they know a damned thing about it.
All assertions are either true or false, it's as simple as that. There is no such thing as something that is true for me but false for you excepting constructs only applicable at relativistic velocities or quantum effects beneath the planck length. This isn't goddamned Shroedinger's Cat, ok?
I are not a lay people. And I know a damned thing (or two) about science. And I know for certain there are things that are true for me that are not true for you (fingerprint patterns and freckle distribution, for instance). And I'm guessing that there is something that is true for Leo that is not true for you. We all have DNA (global truth), but my DNA is unique to me (personal truth). There is personal truth and global truth. You don't get this? That is true for you (personal truth), but not for me.
Technically, nothing trumps physics. But we are not talking technically in this topic. We are talking about what is viewed as possible within the realm of physics. That is why I referred to Orville and Wilbur. None of us yet knows what all is possible and what is impossible within the realm of physics - including what is or is not possible in oil production. That means some things we may think are impossible might turn out to be possible. No one thought Orville and Wilbur could fly. Technically, they didn't trump physics. But they trumped what people thought they knew of physics. That is the key. We don't yet know all there is to know about physics, so what we think we know can be trumped by someone with knowledge and imagination. Orville and Wilbur did it then. Folks can do it now. But it doesn't happen at all unless it first happens in the imagination. You thought the laws of physics decreed that it couldn't happen? Look. By first acquiring knowledge, and then by using my imagination, I came up with a way to make possible what you thought impossible.
All in all, my comments are meant to say be careful of what you claim cannot be done because it is limited by physics. That's all.
And Kathy, your story is cool. I served at Ft Myer at the top of Arlington Cemetery across the Potomac River from Washington, D.C. The Fort sits on top of a hill that falls away to the Potomac River below. Orville and Wilbur used to run their prototypes down that slope from Ft. Myer a long time ago.
You are asking our scientists and engineers to RE-ENGINEER our entire society around some yet-to-be-developed energy capture technology, essentially, on the eve of our collapse. You want it ready by supper time too? Remember we're talking about capturing energy, not manufacturing it. We can't MAKE energy - and every time we process energy into a different form, we experience losses.
I think that part of the problem some folks are having with this is that they're looking at the problem from the wrong direction. Let's say you are an engineer looking to increase fuel economy for liquid fueled engines. The way you do this is by increasing efficiency. There is only so much energy in the subject fuel - your goal is to utilize as much as possible. The highest efficiency we've been able to actually utilize hovers around +/-50% efficiency. These are two-stroke diesels found in container ships. So you set about a program to raise this number. Unless you've got a magic wand, you can't get above 100% efficiency - that much should be obvious. But it should also be obvious that you can't even get close either. You will have friction losses, heat losses, etc. and every percentage point you gain in efficiency costs more than the last one. A perfectly efficient engine could lose no heat and have no friction or moving parts - that doesn't even make sense. Now consider this: There's a reason why my old VW 1978 diesel Rabbit got almost 50 mpg - and a brand new Prius gets what? About the same... And it's not because hundreds of millions of dollars haven't been spent trying to squeeze every last drop out of engine tech. Our liquid fuel technology has hit the wall. We're not going to be making 20% jumps in efficiency any more. Saving 5-10% isn't going to mean squat in the big picture.
And regarding coming up with some new Star Trek power source - We are not going to come up with "Mr. Fusion" technology next week and have it in distribution by Christmas - and betting our civilization's future on it is like smoking 3 packs a day and saying "Oh, by the time I get cancer - they'll have a cure," or "I'm just going to drive my car off the cliff because somebody will figure out how to make my car fly before I hit the ground."
I have great respect for scientists and the work they do, but they are not magicians - even if it may seem like magic if you don't understand the constraints they work under. Putting unreasonable expectations on them is both unfair and a recipe for disaster.
You are asking our scientists and engineers to RE-ENGINEER our entire society around some yet-to-be-developed energy capture technology ...
No. I was addressing two general points made by 7. I was only indirectly addressing the possibility of a solution to peak oil. Such a solution may come soon, out of left field. Or it may come too late to be of any value to the world. I don't know and I wasn't claiming to know.
thanks dickyP yeah use to sled on their hill. my father loved airplanes. he had a couple, stermans or stensons? bad with airplane names. he didn't fly them had a pilot. ok travel onward.
Sorry you are right I probably could not spell my way out of 5th or 6th grade, never has been my strong point.
On the other hand I do know (my personal truth) that the majority of the problems and shortages we have are a political problem, not a resource problem. That was the first part of the statement and I did not have to call you a fucking idiot once for not reading it.
Peak oil is not the same as the peak of mount Everest we know where that is and once you hit it you have to jump to get any higher, oil may run lower but I was not stating that we have a infinite supply I said that there are alternatives and what is mostly holding us back is political. Price it right and other sources will open up and I don't think it will be star trek sources but who knows.
The second part was we are encourgaging exponential growth agin thru politics instead of what is natural and supporting a whole class of people who produce nothing and do less with more instead of letting us decide what we can afford ourselves, that goes from the politicians to the welfare community to the union labor force working for tax dollars that are extracted by force.
Somewhere between 70 to 90% of all oil fields are owned by one gov or another, Can't prove it but would bet that it follows the rule of 50% over priced for bad service and alot of waste.
The carbon tax is to do with Global warming, which in my humble opinion IS bs. SHould watch this though, in regards to your ignorance on peak oil, and as Trav pointed out, your obvious ignorance of mathematics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpBSY
I agree Sheepdawg.
Anyone who believes that oil came from all the dead dinosaurs is a dreamer. I believe in the Russian theory on oil.
It has nothing to do with if you believe or not, it is more about thinking and doing the research. I have been reading up on it for 6 years, and oil fields clearly peak. That is irrefutable. Therefore the world will peak too. We have been using more oil than finding for 30 years. We use 86 million barrels of oil a day. Obviously this adds up pretty quickly and combined with depleting oil fields, well, it's really not that complicated to work out that this is not sustainable.
If abiotic oil production were true, we'd be swimming in it up to our necks... or do the fields only produce what we need "on demand."
...And the middle east would have little history
This is old news for those who've been reading LATOC and The Oil Drum. People have been warning about this for years and years now. Colin Campbell especially in the early years as well as Jay Hanson. But once again nothing will be done till it's too late. Inertia in society is a real problem, the Hirsch Report by the US Dept. of Defence concluded that to prepare for peak oil the world needed to start transitioning away from fossil fuels 20 years in advance of peak. We're now post - peak. The games up.
Anyway, even if there is no peak oil, the current economic situation is going to collapse us anyhow. That's just the way the game works. We're liquidating our economic systems within a few short years.