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Guest Post: Please, Santa, Let This Be the Last Christmas in America (That's Supposed To "Save" The U.S. Economy)
Submitted by Charles Hugh Smith from Of Two Minds
Please, Santa, Let This Be the Last Christmas in America (that's supposed to "save" the U.S. economy)
Please, Santa, Let This Be the Last Christmas in America (that's supposed to "save" the U.S. economy) (November 23, 2010)
Santa, please, please, please strangle the idiotic fantasy that Americans buying a bunch of junk (or gift cards for after-Christmas purchases of junk) will "save" the imploding U.S. economy.
My Christmas wish to Santa: please let this be the last Christmas in America that is dominated by the propaganda that holiday retail sales have any more impact on the $14.7 trillion U.S. economy than a moldy, half-eaten fruitcake left over from 2007.
Fact: the 2010 GDP of the U.S. is projected to be about $14.7 trillion. (CBO estimate) The Federal Budget Primer.
Components of Government spending within U.S. GDP.
Fact: total holiday retail sales were $504 billion in 2009. Holiday sales--National Retail Federation.
That means holiday retail sales are a mere 3.4% of the U.S. GDP.
Despite the Financial and Mainstream Media's pathological obsession with holiday retail sales numbers as proxies for the "health" of the entire U.S. economy, holiday sales don't really change much:
2007: (pre-recession) Holiday sales: $516 billion
Holiday sales as percentage of annual retail sales: 19.5%
2008: Holiday sales: $495.5 billion
Holiday sales as percentage of annual retail sales: 18.6%
2009: Holiday sales: $504.8 billion
Holiday sales as percentage of annual retail sales: 19.4%
So the start of the 2008-09 recession saw a drop of $21 billion in holiday sales: statistical noise in a $14.7 trillion economy and a modest 4% decline from pre-recession levels. 2009 saw sales rise by about $10 billon (about 2%), so a rise of 2% from 2009 would return holiday sales to pre-recession levels.
Now the propaganda machine is cranking up to announce that a 2% increase in holiday retail sales means the U.S. economy is off and running. Santa, please, please, please order your reindeer to stomp the life out of the idiotic fantasy that Americans buying a few billion dollars more needless junk from China is any sort of evidence that the U.S. economy is "growing at a healthy clip."
The entire retail sector is 7.9% of the GDP compared to a 21.4% share for the FIRE tranch (finance, insurance and real estate) of the economy.
Does anyone seriously believe that 3.4% of the economy can possibly leverage up the entire GDP with a razor-thin increase of $10 billion in holiday sales?
Santa, you have my deep gratitude if you could jam the propaganda machine so that this is the last Christmas in America where trivial retail sales are hyped as the bellwether for the $14.7 trillion U.S. economy.
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let this be the last christmas of government so boldly lying to its people
Haha! Good luck with that.
Edit: Parents can't even stop lying to their own kids about Santa.
The Black Friday trade in retailer stocks proceeded without many obstacles last week. The fetishistic propaganda about holiday sales will proceed as planned as well--even if it is an idiotic fantasy.
Charles baby, I love ya like a father. But what did this poor fruitcake ever do to you to deserve such ridicule and disrespect?
Do hate the fruitcake, hate the fruitcake maker.
"The worst gift is a fruitcake. There is only one fruitcake in the entire world, and people keep sending it to each other"
We miss you Johnny.
I remember when he delivered that line. One of the rare times I stayed up to watch Johnny. It was priceless and quintessential Carson. Instantly understandable and all so true.
My favorite character was "The Amazing Carmack".
speaking of Carson, does anyone remember Carol Wayne?
I think she was murdered for her life insurance policy.
http://www.findadeath.com/Deceased/w/Carolwayne/CarolWayne.htm
How about you go the extra mile and do away with Santa altogether?
You guys have Benny to believe in now, everyone is so busy licking Benny's boots that Santa is really becoming a thing of the past. Better behave so he will drop you those fresh piles of cash down your chimneys he's been promising since '02.
Benny would make a good shopping mall Santa. Just let that beard grow and get whiter.
Who is this jdrose creep who runs around saying everyone here is some kind of Ben Bernanke minion? 'Licking Benny's boots"? Where the fuck do you see that anywhere around here, jackwagon? Youre a fucking idiot.
He thinks we want inflation and QE, despite the fact that everyone continuously says they don't want it (though we are mostly positioning ourselves for it).
He is Mako's best pal. He's sad because he is a contractor and no-one is hiring him, so he goes on the internet and insults people for being right.
LOL so you're positioning for it despite the fact that you don't want it or something like that...whatever.
Positioning for it, and wanting it, are two different things. I'd love to have my gold drop 50% overnight IF it meant that we could turn this thing around (I won't go into how I think that could happen since you're just trolling at the moment).
But I don't think that's going to happen, so I am preparing for the more likely outcome.
I think Gold is going up so the Hedge Funds will not get HUGE Margin Calls. They can pledge their Gold against their Trading Positions. Probably easier to pump Gold a limited Commodity than try to save the Whole Market in a Melt Down as that would cost too much money.
I don't think you're an idiot.
I know you are.
I'm rubber, and you're glue...
I'd prefer that Benny comes down my chimney himself??
"light a banker a fire keep him warm for the no-so-silent night...."
Works for me.
Harry, are you there? This is so for you! And Barry Ritholtz as well, who lives in his own fucking fantasy land.
+ 12/25
I was thinking the same thing.. People who think that retail sales are going to pull us out of the mess we are in are FUCKING DELUSIONAL !!
How about ending Christmas period?
++ If they promise to do that, I promise to let them touch my junk!
Nice!
I thought retail sales growth was a 12th derivative that really kicks off the bullish party to take us straight to Dow 20,000? No?
On the 1st derivative of Christmas, my true love sent to me:... :>D
Indeud.
http://www.moronail.net/img/327_i_want_you_to_spend_a_lot_to_prove_you_love_your_america
I hope everyone runs out and buys a bunch of Christmas crap on credit, then never send in a payment!
Sick of it all too, Christmas yearly supposed to 'save the retail economy borrow and consume' BS.
Everybody needs to buy silver coins and lots of them.
I stopped buying things a century ago.
I attended a "Buy Nothing Day" event a few years ago after Thanksgiving.
People were encouraged to bring stuff they didn't want, trade stuff they didn't want or just take stuff that other people brought.
We all had great fun.
And I still have my very useful stuff from the event.
When barter catches on in a Big Way, it's game over for most retailers.
Finally ! The whole bull shit demand argument pisses me off. Economic growth is the function of innovation and the new technology and not the function on the LONG TERM (RUN) demand which is pretty much somewhat constant.
An example, while there was always demand for computation, there weren't any demand for computers until the technology to make them was born and became feasible. And there is no f. artificial amount of money wasted to promote computation equipment and similar would create the demand for computers a hundred years ago. Same could be said about most modern goods.
$504.8 billion worth of holiday sales doesn't even cover the interest on the additional debt we have accumulated since 2007. So even if we have a record Holiday season we are still a loser. This is what most people forget when you're living on a credit card. As the debt limit increases so does the minimum payment and even though you pay more to lower it the balance always seems to go higher.
Let's hope that no one gets trampled in Wal*Mart's version of the
Pamplona bull run on black friday.
Early black friday sales already predict bad sales numbers.
Here in Europe, the spendable income used for gifts will be 75 euro lower then last year per person.
SANTA DOESN'T EXIST!!
THE WORD IS OUT!!
end any "mine is the only trustworthy" religion!
Oh crap...is the CNBC crew camped
at the Paramus, New Jersey mall yet
to give us those breathless retail sales
reports? Makes you almost hate this
time of year.
I'm still pissed that businesses have commercialized Xmas to the point that the moment I put down a forkful of cranberry sauce, I'm supposed to run out and buy Chinese Xmas crap I can't afford with money I don't have--while being seranaded by 24 hour bad Xmas music. Thanksgiving lasts barely a day and then I'm bombarded by five weeks of fluffly movies, music, and fat Santas. Bah, humbug.
Agreed. I'm giving silver Maples for Christmas this year. Hate the traffic everywhere too.
Same here. I'm converting FRN's to ASE's for everyone's Xmas, and then not giving them out. I have been telling everyone for 5 years to get there shit together and they still don't get it. Screw em.
My good kids get silver eagles. My fave gets a wee gold bar. There's been lotsa ass kissing in my household.
Tossing a roll of coins each to my nephews. Though I must confess I'm also getting them Looney Tunes...God I love those cartoons. Did the same last year (they of course loved them), felt I needed to give them something they might actually get to see after my sister touches it. Though to his credit my 3 year old nephew remembered that I gave him "money" for Christmas and he was really happy about it because "it was worth a lot". Sister keeps telling me how much he reminds her of me :)
I think they know, too, that you are worth a lot.
BUY LOTS OF CHINESE SHIT TO PROVE HOW MUCH YOU LOVE YOUR FAMILY!
Hope my wife likes Victoria Secret and a bar of Silver.
Hmmm... are those presents for her or you?
My parents in law said the same thing when I gave my wife a golden Dupont lighter.
Not my fold she doesn't smoke and I do.
GOLD IS A INVESTMENT BITCHEZ!!
I shall see my silver in a whole different light -- thank you.
But can I still buy a bunch of ammo and reloading supplies for myself? It's also among the few things that are still made here in the good ol'e USA, fka the most greatest and mostest free-est country in the world.
There are a lot of People that will not have a good Holiday. Except for Wall Street that will be buying Bables at Tiffany's from Money taken from Retail 401K accounts.
At least the Grocery stores discount many of the items so even a family that has someone not working they can at least get a Turkey and a few other items to make the holiday bright.
Had to say, I stopped by store to pick up some Kosher salt for brining my homegrown turkey for the smoker. Wow! The store was packed. Nobody works anymore. Men, women, whole families. In the middle of the day. Most incredibly fat. I was the ONLY one I saw pay with actual cash (my own). EVERYONE else all used their "food stamp" cards.
Waterfallsparkles, agreed. Stopped the Xmas insanity years ago. Make or bake gifts, maybe buy something REALLY REALLY special for someone if a much needed item. Last year, a bunch of us chipped in to buy a new industrial sized planer for a woodworker who couldn't afford a new one to stay in biz. Other than that, we all just enjoy a nice meal, nice beverages and nice time with each other. Rent a cabin in the woods and go tubing. Who needs more shit around the house. Screw the retailers and their overpriced crap shit.
From what I saw at the grocery store, in an upper middle class neighborhood, I don't know that anyone will have any money to spend. Or, they will charge up what's left of the cc's and never pay it back. Ho ho h0!
PS-what's up with captcha? 4 digit answer, but only takes 3
My Family over the last 4 years have stopped giving gifts for Christmas. Except for simple things like a can of mixed nuts, maybe some summer sausage, or a box of chocolates. It has worked very well. We enjoy each others company over a very nice meal that everyone brings something. We may make cookies together to give to each other and spend time together instead of shopping.
With the exception we still give gifts to the Children, although not extravagant.
What is really great is no one has huge bills after Christmas, so it is a double pleasure. The only thing that really matters is spending time together.
For the past few years, I have slowly begun to see the wasteful purchases made for family members, and we all are on track to following along the lines of a limited quantity and limited scale Christmas. In years past, greater than half of the gifts I have given, in addition to the gifts I have received (especially clothing), have been discarded, forgotten, unused or simply returned by March 1st. I think we all have grown tired of generating wants for the purposes of fulfilling a bloated and distorted tradition.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=231PT-5nKhY
What if christmas didn't come this year?
and no one paid for christmas cheer
Who would cry the biggest tear?
the child?
or the store?
Raise that Guidance for next year fellas, the propaganda machine wishes you to believe that on the night before christmas the profits will be dancing in your head. Look we're going to get statistics to back us this time, 2 percent woo hoo. This is obviously one of those next steps in the 'healing process' of the economy. The magic hand is not only in play, it is waving, no, in fact it is conducting an orchestra of dancing pink bulls and psychedelically colored tulips. Believe in the power of NBS, like Kim Jong Il, it has never ever been wrong in a single thing ever. It doesn't fart or have smelly breath even after sucking off the latest big w(h)ig.
Of course the other side is, if in reality it misses, it's downplayed as nothing. This is just another step in the process of the markets healing, but they're not there yet. We still have the fed behind us for an extended period and QE infinity.
And just forget that in reality, this measuring stick, is stained with poo, indicative of nothing about the real underlying dynamics driving this ponzi.
Got Glass-Steagall?
Or a milk mustache on the NBS anchorwoman?
This will probably be the last christmas in (old) order...
Santa Clause is everybit as real as the banking system bookeeping and the financial bunch talking points in the Federal Government. But Santa is a GOOD GUY. This aint the French Revolution---- lets not take everyone out.
It's pathetic that there are people lined up to buy shit outside of WalMart and every other retailer on Black Friday. Someone always gets trampled on. There's always a fight for the last special edition doll or discounted TV. Every year you have to laugh at them. Here's an idea...stay at home, sleep in, then have your kid kick you in the face instead. You save money by not buying gas, Chinese crap, McDonald's; more important your kid's surly actions is a reminder to make that monthly addition to his/her tuition fund. Still I'm going to collar WMT and MCD because you can't bet against cirrhosis of the consumer. It keeps coming back.
Wonder if Santa payed his Mortgage? Or will he be Robo Foreclosed before Chistmas.
It is not to late to invest in U.S. Treasury Christmas Bonds. We will be buying those issued before Black Friday at the following Monday's POMO.
Use the Christmas Grinch Short ETF to speculate on the results of the bond issue.
i was @ SAM'S today here in southwestern Michigan .............. it was basically empty; a few customers, maybe just a few more than normal, but, when i remember the 1990's you wouldn't even dare go into SAM'S two days before THANKSGIVING .......... i got right through the check-out line. OH ! & GET THIS ! ......... I went to WAL-MART next, very few people, went right to the check out, didn't have much cash with me, so i had to leave a few things at the check out & an older lady (stranger) in back of me asked if she could purchase those foodstuffs that I'd left behind as a Xmas gift ! I told her that I do have money, but it just wasn't on me right then & to save her money & xtend it to those worse off than me. She told me that all 3 of her sons were getting laid off this week. .... the weather here is cold, bleak, traffic is light & the SAM'S parking lot had only a few cars in it........... thanks for listening ......... remember, Christmas is for the CHILDREN. if anyone has xtra & knows of hungry children, please extend charity, it's going to be bad.
i was @ SAM'S today ...it was basically empty;
Good Graces, Don't anyone tell Wang.
best article of the season....thank you thank you thank you....
but never under-estimate the economic power of a high velocity fruitcake....do you know how much money the average american could save if he and just 2 other people passed along a godforsaken fruitcake to some other needy soul as a christmas/chaunuka/kwanza/saturnalia/winter solstice/politically correct holiday gift?
do you realize how much fire power the south koreans could accumulate if every american sent them an unwanted fruitcake for artillery fire?
and while you are pondering that, go baaahhumbug yourself...
Your math seems off somewhere - with inconsistent numbers:
In 2009, if $504.8 billion represented 19.4% of annual retail sales - that total number would be around $2.6 trillion... however, the chart you cited here:
http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1214
said that annual retail sales was around $1.13 trillion.
What are the correct figures?
Thanks!
Now that you mention it…fruitcakes formed the original HFT instrument. A old study from Baseline Econometrics showed that no one has actually eaten a fruitcake since 1886. The ones in existence are merely traded back and forth amongst families and friends, with each “transaction” adding to the US’ GDP. Estimates are that without fruitcake “trades”, the US’ real GDP would be slightly smaller than Indonesia, where fruitcakes do not exist because of the deleterious climate.
Even more important, since no one has eaten a fruitcake since Grover Cleveland I, the recipe has been lost to posterity, which makes fruitcakes---like gold---a finite and indestructible element, and eminently qualified to act as the bedrock backing a currency. Also, like gold, “You can’t eat it”. After William Jennings Bryan's famous "tin of fruitcake" speech, all talk of a fruitcake backed currency fell out of favor, though it seems to be making a comeback on some fringe and Quaker websites (see www.Grandma.com)
Finally, the FBI and the SEC are currently investigating rumors that JPMorgan and HSBC have long been manipulating the price of fruitcakes downward. With option expiration on fruitcakes coming up on 25 December, expect all hell to break loose.
“This whole fruitcakes conspiracy is going to unwind faster than most people think”, said Chumbawamba, a sometimes commenter at the secretive and influential website ZeroHedge.
+1 ROUND POUND OF FRUITCAKE
Goddam that's funny, dude. Classic ZH if I ever heard (read) it.
Fruitcake is as good as any gold bar! They are indeed inedible, infinitely divisible (if you have a good bandsaw), and one is surely not to be stolen (unlike gold or silver).
And to all you fruitcakes here at ZH-
I sincerely wish you a happy Thanksgiving and that you all can enjoy some quality time with your loved ones. These, indeed, look like they may be the good old days.
Fruitcake, Bitchez!
To all that are bad mouthing fruitcakes consider:
http://www.figis.com/gifts/offer.asp?offerID=114190&categoryID=1080&subc...
Most bad fruitcakes contain too much candied fruit, or are as dry as the Sahara, not so the fruitcake at the link provided, which contains a lot of golden raisins, and everyone's favorite: booze!.
Based on the link in the post
http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=Pages&sp_id=1234
NRF said 2009 total retail sales was 504.8 billions. But here
http://www.nrf.com/modules.php?name=News&op=viewlive&sp_id=1010
NRF said 2010 total retail sales will increase by 2.3% to 447.1 billions.
Anyone has an explanation of the conflict?
60 billion in christmas returns that don't show up onthe books till January?
yes I know a good accountant would(legally be required to) factor that in. but hey it's christmas and we need our bonuses.
For real! Proof positive that all these so-called "numbers" and "reports" issued by practically ANY agency, government or NOT - cannot be believed.
I'll believe my own count in my wallet and hidden stash. That's about all!
PS - I've seen incredible momentum building from regular citizens that are finding the news "headlines" they read and see on TV are full of hot air. Americans are losing confidence faster than ever in what can be considered reliable information sources. We're f*cked.
Well I guess I'm the dumb one here, because I did buy presents for alot of people, though I tried very hard (it gets more difficult every year) to have most of them made here in America. What else can I do besides be a cheapskate and another small part of the reason my countrymen are out of work?
Well, I hope everyone has a good meal with friends and family tomorrow. I think someone above makes the most relevant point,"These will be considered the 'Good old days." I have two kids 14 and 9. It really bothers me that my kids may be able to afford a car but not the gas to run it. The electric car has about 10 more years before it is actually affordable to the average joe. Sad times are coming indeed.