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Guest Post: Possible Reaction Scenarios To A Preemptive Israeli Strike On Iran

Tyler Durden's picture


Submitted by Bradley Schaeffer

Possible Reaction Scenarios To A Preemptive Israeli Strike On Iran

I have written in the past about the prospect of a nuclear Iran and its destabilizing effect in the world’s most important energy region.  But what if Israel strikes before Tehran’s nuclear ambitions are realized?  Although given that Iran currently could have as many as 8,000 centrifuges enriching uranium by December (IAEA estimate),  an Israeli strike now, as opposed to say 2003 when the secret program was first revealed, may not effectively shut down the decentralized program.  Still, it could cause a frustrating delay in Iran’s timetable and, depending on the line the mullahs take immediately succeeding the attack, weaken the regime’s hold on a populace that is more educated, more worldly, more pro-Western and less easily cowed than others in the region as the green protests last year revealed.

The (literally) billion dollar question of course for commodities traders  is what will be the effect on the price of global energy in the immediate and longer dated aftermath of such a military strike?  As with the current diplomatic stand-off today, much of that will depend on Tehran’s reaction.  Here are three possible scenarios should we wake up to news of Israeli fighter-bombers winging away from Natanz, leaving a burning nuclear facility and a thousand questions in their jet wash behind them.  

Best case scenario: Iran plays the victim.  Instead of striking back militarily, Iran uses the attack to show the world that Israel and her puppet-master the United States are the aggressors.  The mullahs may even use such an attack to shore up their public support at home. "It may make sense for the Iranians to play the victim," said IHS Global Insight Middle East analyst Gala Riani. "They may also use it to build the regime's legitimacy internally."  Sure, they would angrily denounce the criminal raids, invite the international press to view the destroyed buildings and, of course, the hospitals treating the inevitable civilian casualties and the very public funerals that would follow.  But in the end, especially if the damage is minimal, they may try to turn this military lemon into p.r. lemonade.  I would expect a mild knee-jerk rally in crude oil (depending on the base price at the time of the strike).  Call it $5.00 to $15.00 but I think any rally will be brief and a selling/shorting opportunity if anything.

Mid-case scenarios:  Iran could retaliate in one of two-ways (or both) short of major escalation of violence.  They could intensify their proxy war against the United States and her allies in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as Israel in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories through Hezbollah and Hamas respectively.  Such actions’ short-term impact could have a similar impact on crude prices as the best-case victim scenario, especially if the attacks focus on Israel which is already under the gun so to speak.  Although Israel has threatened to hold Syria and Lebanon responsible for any Hezbollah attacks, in the end it will be the intensity of the attacks and level U.S. support for retaliatory actions that will determine the degree of escalation such a declaration could imply. 

It must be noted however that should there be a marked increase in violence against Western forces, especially beyond the immediate areas of Gulf conflict, and particularly militant-launched attacks on oil-focused targets such as refineries, pipelines, and the like, global tensions could rise quickly.  This is especially true if Israel waits until the new year when a more friendly Republican-controlled Congress (if predictions hold that is) may press the tepid Obama administration for a more punishing response to Tehran’s machinations.  In this case we could see oil’s floor set at perhaps $10-$20 or more higher than pre-strike levels and remain there for some time. 

Worst-case scenario:  Iran could react with great force, launching conventional warheads against Israeli targets while at the same time following through with its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the most important maritime route through which 17 million barrels of crude oil move each day.  The immediate supply shock would send oil futures spiraling into the $140+ range (roughly double where they are now).   "Iran doesn't even need to be successful in their threat," said Michael Wittner, global head of energy research at Societe Generale. "Even a credible threat or near miss and insurance rates will spike. Then no one's going to send any oil through there for a couple of weeks until somebody's navy can re-establish control." 

Should the Iranians actually attempt to close the narrow sea lanes over which they frown, the United States Navy will be compelled to re-open them by force.  This will unleash unintended consequences that are anyone’s best guess.  Although Iran’s ability to maintain a blockade in the face of the most powerful navy in history is in doubt, certainly the price spike will hold as insurance rates skyrocket for a time and such costs are passed on to consumers.  Also re-routing the oil overland or drawing it from other regions will entail higher transportation costs and risks of their own.

Commodities derivatives are driven by uncertainty.  They are, in fact, risk management instruments to be used to mitigate uncertainties in just such scenarios as described above.  Uncertainty is inherently bullish.  I cannot conceive of a scenario in which oil prices will fall in the event of an Israeli strike that seems more and more likely by the day. 

Sadly, I do not see the current Iranian regime reacting rationally to such a strike and thus do I lean more towards the latter two possibilities I lay out above.  My advice, better to be long and wrong, for a while, then wake up short when the balloon goes up.  Demand for crude oil is not going away any time soon regardless…access to supplies, however, may soon be another matter entirely. 


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Sat, 07/24/2010 - 23:46 | 487252 keating
keating's picture

1. You are assuming that Israel uses a surgical strike. If Israel uses 2/3 of her nukes, she can toast most Iran cities.

2. You are assuming Iran could find the sender of the 100 nuclear cruise missiles, launched perhaps off the deck of an oil tanker. Israel might be the main suspect, but perhaps not, as Iran has a lot of enemies.

3. You are assuming that the Straits of Hormus are not mined. New "rising" mines are impossible to detect and  lethal even to military vessels.

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:47 | 487280 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

All other considerations aside, I don't really see Israel nuking Iran.  That would be a stroke that would inevitably result in a like-for-like retaliation, even if it took some time and was carried out by some clandestine faction with a suitcase bomb.  More likely, it would be the final straw in a region in which Israel is already seen as a peripherally legitimate state at best.

But...the surest reason is that it would render further drilling and refining operations in Iran an even more messy prospect than it currently is.  We like to think that political bodies are both savage and stupid, but I rather think it's more the former than the latter.  Short-sighted and arrogant?  Definitely.  Stupid enough to run the biggest Hail Mary since 1945?  Probably not.

I could be wrong, though...organized religion has made the Hatfields and McCoys look like a bunch of hippies by comparison over the course of history.

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 02:11 | 487336 RichardP
RichardP's picture


Sun, 07/25/2010 - 02:09 | 487337 RichardP
RichardP's picture

If someone nuked Iran and they nuked there own oilfields in response so that they were unworkable for several thousand years, would that not also cause problems?  There are all kinds of legitimate reasons not to nuke Iran and I'm sure the powers that be are hamstrung by all of them.  I'm thinking that industrial sabotage is going to be the means of controlling Iran's centrifuges.  If Iran really wants nukes, they can either buy the nukes, or buy the parts and assemble them themselves.

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 03:06 | 487355 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the premise of the post is preposterous:  if iran gets a nuclear weapon it "destabilizes" the region (whatever that actually means, probably that israel thinks it is marginally or more worse off:  the u.s. is so led around by the nose by that little troublesome country and its u.s. lackeys).  so how about israel attack iran in some way.  that certainly wouldn't destabilize anything.  no.  that ought to calm everyone down.  foreign attack, especially by the despised zionist entity, is a sure way of keeping the people from rallying to the government from which they are slowly becoming alienated.  in your fevered hebrew dreams.

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 11:27 | 487541 TrulyStupid
TrulyStupid's picture

Every other country in the world recognizes that an attack by Israel is in fact an attack by the

US. The tail wags the dog... Presumably an Israeli strike would be followed by a US invasion

.. a la Iraq.. in order to make Iran free for corporate profits, which is the main motivater of US foreign policy.

The US would not raise domestic taxes to pay for the whole (no doubt botched) operation, so the printing

presses would be brought to bear... that's worked real well so far.

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:21 | 487793 hound dog vigilante
hound dog vigilante's picture order to make Iran (or any other sovereign nation) free for corporate profits, which is the main motivater of US foreign policy...


This FACT cannot be repeated enough.

Americans must themselves recognize and then stop the taxpayer-funded corporate military-industial complex. This is the challenge of our generation - end corporate fascism.


Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:03 | 488078 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

++ Hound Dog.  Find a way to stop paying taxes.  Don't participate.  Keeping one's hands clean is an individual choice.

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 20:21 | 487969 israhole
israhole's picture

I'd have to disagree.  If anything, the US is Israel's beetch.  Ask yourself, do Americans run Israel, or do dual-citizens of Israel sit in our government?


Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:36 | 488121 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

"Ask yourself, do Americans run Israel, or do dual-citizens of Israel sit in our government?"

well, we know that the latter is true:


American / Isreali Dual Citizens Running the American Government

Attorney General – Michael Mukasey
Head of Homeland Security – Michael Chertoff
Chairman Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board – Richard Perle
Deputy Defense Secretary (Former) – Paul Wolfowitz
Under Secretary of Defense – Douglas Feith
National Security Council Advisor – Elliott Abrams
Vice President Dick Cheney’s Chief of Staff (Former) – “Scooter” Libby
White House Deputy Chief of Staff – Joshua Bolten
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs – Marc Grossman
Director of Policy Planning at the State Department – Richard Haass
U.S. Trade Representative (Cabinet-level Position) – Robert Zoellick
Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board – James Schlesinger
UN Representative (Former) – John Bolton
Under Secretary for Arms Control – David Wurmser
Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board – Eliot Cohen
Senior Advisor to the President – Steve Goldsmith
Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary – Christopher Gersten
Assistant Secretary of State – Lincoln Bloomfield
Deputy Assistant to the President – Jay Lefkowitz
White House Political Director – Ken Melman
National Security Study Group – Edward Luttwak
Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board – Kenneth Adelman
Defense Intelligence Agency Analyst (Former) – Lawrence (Larry) Franklin
National Security Council Advisor – Robert Satloff
President Export-Import Bank U.S. – Mel Sembler
Deputy Assistant Secretary, Administration for Children and Families – Christopher Gersten
Assistant Secretary of Housing and Urban Development for Public Affairs – Mark Weinberger
White House Speechwriter – David Frum
White House Spokesman (Former) – Ari Fleischer
Pentagon’s Defense Policy Board – Henry Kissinger
Deputy Secretary of Commerce – Samuel Bodman
Under Secretary of State for Management – Bonnie Cohen
Director of Foreign Service Institute – Ruth Davis

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 08:51 | 488418 Citizen of an I...
Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

Playing "spot the Joooooo" this morning?

Good grief.

Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:01 | 489481 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

What's your point clown?

Why don't you address the issue?

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:21 | 487792 Andrew_Miller
Andrew_Miller's picture

Fuck zombies junking you

Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:41 | 488128 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture
heya jeff - noticed your post was attracting the attentions, yeah, so I thought I'd repost it down here, to prevent a dis-appearing act - it's a good post, hate to lose it!
by jeff montanye
on Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:06


the premise of the post is preposterous:  if iran gets a nuclear weapon it "destabilizes" the region (whatever that actually means, probably that israel thinks it is marginally or more worse off:  the u.s. is so led around by the nose by that little troublesome country and its u.s. lackeys).  so how about israel attack iran in some way.  that certainly wouldn't destabilize anything.  no.  that ought to calm everyone down.  foreign attack, especially by the despised zionist entity, is a sure way of keeping the people from rallying to the government from which they are slowly becoming alienated.  in your fevered hebrew dreams.

  • flag as junk (13) 
  • Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:30 | 487743 Hang The Fed
    Hang The Fed's picture

    I just don't believe that any organization as cold, self-interested, and fundamentally greedy as any current government is would drop nukes on a "potential investment" as large as Iran, with its oil reserves.  But, as I said, maybe I'm wrong.  Rationality has been abandoned in so many different venues these days that predicting any given social or political event is a crapshoot at best.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 03:02 | 487353 Testicular Cancer
    Testicular Cancer's picture

    Israel cannot strike Iran using an airstrike. The distances are too great & no Muslim nation will aid by either harboring or refueling Israeli aircraft. A commando strike is possible but the chance of success is low & the chance of return is negligible. That leaves nuclear missiles. I do not know if the Jericho missiles can reach the refineries.

    But note this guys, if the facilities are above ground & within range, then you can arm the missiles with conventional or better yet specialty munitions (like cluster munitions) and achieve the goal of stopping or at least delaying enrichment & weapons production! The accuracy of modern ballistic missiles are around 100 yards if not better (at least the American ones)! Lastly, if you go conventional, you have deniability! Now that I think about it, that is the most likely scenario. My god, did I just figure them out?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 04:21 | 487372 AnAnonymous
    AnAnonymous's picture

    I suspect Saudi Arabia to be willing to cooperate.

    If people want to look at a country running (or jetflying) into the wall, they must look at Saudi Arabia.

    They are growing more and more nervous by the day, living the fate of people who play consistently the best interests of someone else instead of theirs.

    This has led them to play against a majority of  theirs neighbours and worse, against themselves. Now they realised the trap they are in. 

    Iran emerging as regional power is bad news for them. Very bad. This could lead to a total shift in the area with Saudi Arabia being publically lambasted for their past behaviour.

    As they harbour the Mecca, Islam could be instrumentalized to finish them off.


    Saudi Arabia is going down the gutter and they definitively do not want a neighbouring country to take advantage of the situation.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 14:54 | 487714 DosZap
    DosZap's picture


    "I suspect Saudi Arabia to be willing to cooperate."

    The Saudi's have already goven Izzy permission for flyover............several weeks ago.

    Scenario #3 is the one I see, and NO NUKES will be used........

    The US has already delivered around 11,000 Bunker Busters to the area.

    The only thing holding Izzy back, is the go ahead from the US.

    Iran, is not capable of blocking the Straits FIRST, and steps would be taken to ensure they would not get the Jump on the US to be there 1st........

    As for the 10,000 ship Iran navy, LOL....what a LIE.

    More ISALMIC Fundamental Horse Crap.

    Mother of all thing I have learned from the Middle eastern tryrants,and Dictators is their unequalled penchant for BLUSTER..............

    Talk, does not scare strength..........ABILITY does.

    Now, IRAN is the weakest it will ever be...........if they are going to HIT them, best do it now.

    ObamBa could care less what the price of Oil goes to, the higher the better.........just helps his Agenda, for cutting Americans travel, and savings.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:00 | 487773 AnAnonymous
    AnAnonymous's picture

    I am not surprised. Saudi Arabia is really on the verge of self implosion.

    Always happens when you disregard your own interests to favour others'.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:07 | 488083 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    Saudi Arabia is really on the verge of self implosion.  Always happens when you disregard your own interests to favour others'.


    Are you talking about Saudi Arabia or the US??

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:25 | 487797 hound dog vigilante
    hound dog vigilante's picture

    "...They are growing more and more nervous by the day, living the fate of people who play consistently the best interests of someone else instead of theirs.

    This has led them to play against a majority of  theirs neighbours and worse, against themselves. Now they realised the trap they are in..."


    You are describing Saudi Arabia here, but you could just as accurately be describing the USA - it's citizens held captive by a militarized multinational corporate government.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:47 | 488136 Cathartes Aura
    Cathartes Aura's picture


    militarized multinational corporate government

    says it all.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 08:47 | 487446 Citizen of an I...
    Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

    The distances are too great & no Muslim nation will aid by either harboring or refueling Israeli aircraft.


    That remains to be seen.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 10:36 | 487507 Missing_Link
    Missing_Link's picture

    Israel cannot strike Iran using an airstrike. The distances are too great & no Muslim nation will aid by either harboring or refueling Israeli aircraft.

    Wrong.  Israel has developed UAVs with sufficient range to strike Iran.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 11:38 | 487548 caconhma
    caconhma's picture

    People who seriously think about starting a nuclear war must be sent to mental institutions and/or into electric-chairs.

    Apparently, lessons of Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, etc., were totally wasted. 

    As for Jews, apparently, for the last 2,000 years they also have learned absolutely nothing.

    It is just fucking incredible.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:14 | 487729 Missing_Link
    Missing_Link's picture

    Nonsense; they've learned quite a bit.  They've learned how to survive in a land surrounded by enemies.  If they hadn't, they wouldn't have made it all these 2,000 years.  Thus, the development of long-range UAVs.

    Israel has a whole lot of tricks up its sleeve.  This is only one of them.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:04 | 487778 JR
    JR's picture

    The history of the Jews is not the same as the history of the current state of Israel, which dates just to 1948.  The state of Israel was created and is sustained by unbelievable support and subsidies from other nations, including initial blocking of indigenous peoples by the British and now total protection by the world’s superpower.

    Should that support be withdrawn, the state of Israel would cease to exist.  In that we’re talking about a nuclear war now and we’re talking about the state of Israel, the country, and not the Jews, removal of that support is plausible.

    As to how much the Jews have learned, this extension of settlements is not a smart way to be running a country in the Middle East. There’s a difference between 2000 years of a Jewish people in constant need of political and subsidized support from host nations and running a modern state.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:18 | 487736 Testicular Cancer
    Testicular Cancer's picture

    Only US UAV's carry Hellfire missiles. Even those dont carry enough firepower to disable a facility & fly such distances.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 05:22 | 487385 Bartanist
    Bartanist's picture

    Yes, and Israel then would be proven to be the rogue terrorist state that it claims Iran to be. If Israel does commit that kind of crime, then hopefully the retaliation from the rest of the world would be swift and final.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 10:06 | 487487 fiddler_on_the_roof
    fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

    Nothing will happen. Powerless people will hold some marches on the streets. That's
    All. People are slowing realizing that ordinary
    People don't influence any decisions. Look
    At the Lockeberie bomber released by
    Powers in control

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 10:44 | 487512 Missing_Link
    Missing_Link's picture

    So Bartanist, you're openly calling for the destruction of Israel; is that correct?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 11:41 | 487552 caconhma
    caconhma's picture

    Yes, this will liquidate many problems for the USA and the rest of the world.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 12:27 | 487605 Citizen of an I...
    Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

    Liquidate, eh?

    What a telling choice of word.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:15 | 487732 Missing_Link
    Missing_Link's picture

    So many frothing-at-the-mouth little amchair Hitlers on ZH these days.  I am really starting to wonder about this site.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:39 | 487803 hound dog vigilante
    hound dog vigilante's picture

    Israel is not a US state.

    Stop behaving like Israel's interests = USA interests.  Two different countries.

    Discussing the fate of Israel is not anti-semitic, so why villify the entire discussion?

    Israeli policy has been indefensible. It is neither irrational nor anti-semitic to question Israel or it's fate.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:04 | 487809 DosZap
    DosZap's picture


    Then your taking the side of the Arabic counties, and Iran's??.( Frigging maniacs).


    Also,I call Bullshit on this..............

    " Stop behaving like Israel's interests = USA interests.  Two different countries."

    they have been our ONLY true Allie in that area for 60yrs

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:13 | 487864 TrulyStupid
    TrulyStupid's picture

    Remember the USS Liberty!

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 03:35 | 488300 RichardP
    RichardP's picture

    Remember it??  You guys won't let us forget it.  So I'll add to the chorus:

    Rember what the final investigative report said about the USS Liberty.


    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:08 | 489490 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    Did you and your friends write the report?

    "A former Navy attorney who helped lead the military investigation of the 1967 Israeli attack on the USS Liberty that killed 34 American servicemen says former President Lyndon Johnson and his defense secretary, Robert McNamara, ordered that the inquiry conclude the incident was an accident.

    In a signed affidavit released at a Capitol Hill news conference, retired Capt. Ward Boston said Johnson and McNamara told those heading the Navy's inquiry to "conclude that the attack was a case of 'mistaken identity' despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary."

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:46 | 487808 DosZap
    DosZap's picture



    This place seems to have more than it's fair share of  Anti Semites,that said, the good here far outweighs the FAR left fringe groups.

    I just wish ONE of these Israel haters, would step into their shoes........

    Not one time, have I seen Israel attack without provocation, I have never heard them threatening an Arabic, or Persian nation with TOTAL oblivion, by Nuclear weapons...........

    Nor START a war,police action, without damn good cause..........

    Don't most sane people think that Israel, IF left the Hell alone, would almost never be heard from?.

    You would think, yes.............

    But, NOOOOOOOOOOO............their A gnat on a camels ass in that part of the world, and if they did not have the Tactical Nukes as a deterrent, their asses would have been wiped put LONG ago.

    Logical thinking would seem to be that Israel is not, has not, been the PRIMARY aggressor's...........When you have several hundreds of millions of Arab's, and Persians, whose publically stated goal, is to totally destroy Israel, and to NOT recognize even their right to EXIST?.

    Yasser Arafat, in his entire LIFE, never wanted peace w/Israel, he wanted things his way, and the ultimate goal was elimination of the state of Isreal..always has been,always will be, till the END OF DAYS.

    The U.N., constantly votes against Israel, and the U.S.( Obama is gonna change that IF he get's time.)

    You have to wonder...........who's on the crack pipe.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:15 | 487865 TrulyStupid
    TrulyStupid's picture

    By the way, Arabs are a Semitic people. Is Israel violent anti-Semitic?

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:27 | 488593 WaterWings
    WaterWings's picture

    How did Izzy get their nukes? Don't you think the America people should/would be outraged to learn the truth? The asymmetrical force Izzy employs against civilians is astounding...white phosphorus, anyone? Isn't that a war crime?

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 15:31 | 489003 Green Leader
    Green Leader's picture

    The majority of posters here are smart people and can see what Israel is all about...they don't have to read The Protocols.

    The Zionist state of Israel is an illegitimate and impostor Ashkenazi-Edomite regime. Many sects of Judaism do not recognize it. The Edomites are the descendants of Esau and the Ashkenazi are NOT semites (descendants of Shem). The Ashkenazi are descendants of Japhet, sons of Gomer (Genesis 10:1-2).

    Google radiation experiment + Sephardic children.

    "Behold, I will make those of the synagogue of Satan who say that they are Jews and are not, but lie—behold, I will make them come and bow down before your feet and they will learn that I have loved you." Revelation 3:9



    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 12:26 | 487604 Citizen of an I...
    Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

    ...hopefully the retaliation from the rest of the world would be swift and final.


    Perhaps we could call it Die Endlösung.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 14:35 | 487703 israhole
    israhole's picture

    I agree. Enough is enough out of Israel already.  The videos on youtube of the IDF and settlers terrorizing not just Palestinians, but shooting even Americans at point blank range (like on the Gaza aid flotilla) prove your point.  


    You won't see the controlled, mainstream media play any of these videos, but they are all over the internet.  Does anybody really think this is why Joe Lieberman wants to shut down the internet (for our own safety)?  Not me.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:19 | 487739 Missing_Link
    Missing_Link's picture

    ^^ enough of this kind of hatemongering trash, I think.

    Oh, and as for the "peaceful" "aid" flotilla, what about the known terrorists on it, and then heavy weapons (, and the knives used against the Israeli commandos?

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:29 | 488596 WaterWings
    WaterWings's picture

    Knives against pirates in international waters? Those people had every right to use all necessary force to repel illegal boarding parties.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:09 | 487727 DosZap
    DosZap's picture


     Excuse me but I think your full of crap.........and WAY over the top.

    "If Israel does commit that kind of crime, then hopefully the retaliation from the rest of the world would be swift and final."

    First & Foremost,I am sick and tired of Israel always getting hung with the BAD GUY tag.

    Answer me this.........

    WHO, has threatened to Destory Israel, and eliminate it from the face of the earth?.

    Answer: many times?...........lost count.

    So, where is the Crime, in defending your nations peoples, and your very existence?......................There is none.




    Any world retaliation against Israel, would have to go thru us also......Not a thing anyone would take lightly........we may be dead dik broke, but we still have the most Mobile fleet of Military power on the Planet.........and the largest...............

    What part of the Muslim world are you from?.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:29 | 487742 Weimar Ben Bernanke
    Weimar Ben Bernanke's picture

    Let me guess bomb bomb Iran till we are broke. We are deep in debt. Why the hell should we fight wars in the mideast that does not benefit us at all while our southern border is being overrun by paramilitary druglords. While Arizona is being held hostage we should bomb another nation in the benefit of israel? If Iran and Israel want to go to war with each other let em do. But we should not choose a side. We have given military aid to Israel,Palestian Authority,Egypt,Jordan,Saudi Arabia,Pakistan,Turkey for what??!! If Israel and Iran want to destroy each other let em do it. I am sick and tired of the mideast,we have a shitload of problems at home but we must continue being the"globocop" that will bankrupt us into ruin. As George Washington said "The great rule of conduct for us, in regard to foreign nations, is in
    extending our commercial relations to have as little political
    connection as possible... Why, by interweaving our destiny with that of
    any part of Europe, entangle our peace and prosperity in the toils of
    European ambition, rivalships, interest, humor, or caprice?... It is our
    true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances with any portion of
    the foreign world."

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:34 | 487750 Max Hunter
    Max Hunter's picture

    I'm not a Muslim.. Don't even know any.. You can be sure of this; Israel IS the bad guy. Always has been.. If I wake up one morning and my Internet is gone, I will be certain Israel attacked Iran.

    The terrorist state of Israel is slowly (but surely) losing it grip over consensus in the west. There is a groundswell of people once fooled, (like you) into thinking all Muslims and brown people are the enemy, but are now understanding they have been conditioned by the "owned" media outlets.

    You grossly underestimate the number of people that will jump on the RIGHT side of history and condemn Israel for the terrorist state it is..

    Zionist/Neo-con control is slipping.. I just hope there are enough light poles to hang all of these traitors from..

    I have personally unconditioned dozens from the false ideas they have grown up thinking and that the U.S. and Israeli policy is nothing short of terrorism against the rest of the world..

    We are growing, you are shrinking.. good luck with that..

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:31 | 487872 DosZap
    DosZap's picture


    "Zionist/Neo-con control is slipping.."

    Mind giving us your definition of Zionist?.

    Best I can tell, it's the same as what the Founders finally had to do, the hard way..............(same prinicples).

    Neo Cons, have CONTROL of America now...............1600 Penn.

    And the Congress (better known as Progressives).

    Or, as I prefer to call them by their REAL names, and intent...National Socialists.


    Slipping, yep......................Battered but not beaten.

    Anyone for a Welfare state, and Liberalism, can jump off  bridge as far as I am concerned.(There's your Neo Cons).

    Islamic Countries are moving in,and taking over(trying to),soverign nations............infiltrating THEIR idology/people, into the HIGHEST office/s in their/our Gv't.

    Look at U.K, and France...........ONLY Austrailia has any TESTICULAR FORTITUDE, and call a spade a spade.

    Every where you look, they are immigating enmasse, and separating from the HOST country, demanding special priviledges, and the right to practice their LAW, and traditions............

    As an American, we can see that first hand............

    With the Victory Mosque, trying to be built 3Blks from Ground Zero, a FRIGGING travesty........rememer that?. 9-11?

    But, you see this everywhere they have accomplished their goals.A Victory Mosque goes up at/near the point.

    Few Americans have a CLUE.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:56 | 487899 Max Hunter
    Max Hunter's picture

    "None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free". Goethe

    You falsely believe you are free.. You should sit on this quote for a day and really think about it.

    'Islamic Countries are moving in,and taking over(trying to),soverign nations............infiltrating THEIR idology/people, into the HIGHEST office/s in their/our Gv't.'

    Islamic countries are not a threat to this nation. The real threat to our sovereign nation is the international banksters and their control over the minds of the western world.  I fear clueless people like you much more than I fear Muslims.

    To be honest, I cannot even begin to elaborate on the points you try to make. They are simply a prime example of the conditioning I speak of.

    You truly have no idea who the enemy is. That's sad..

    I know it makes you feel like a patriot or a "true" American to hate and warn of Muslims, but the fact is, we are the invaders and the occupiers. Propaganda has been an effective tool in convincing people like you that we are doing the "right" and "moral" thing by killing brown people that happen to be living on top of our "god given" natural resources.

    You are right about the threat to our soviergnty, but you are wrong about the group that threatens to take it.

    Is it the Muslim world that has dismantled our manufacturing base?

    Is it the Muslims that have caused the decay of our morals?

    Is it the Muslims that have caused us to be fat and lazy only staying awake for the next reality show to keep us entertained?

    Is it the Muslims that have taxed us into slavery and created the socialist programs that encourage dependency on the Government?

    Is it the Muslims that caused the housing and debt bubble that threaten our economic stability?

    I could go on and on.. If you really cared about the people of this country you would examine the REAL problems the people in this country face.

    I do think your heart is in the right place. I just think you are so strongly conditioned you are short-sighted and narrow-minded.. I hope you get on the right side and help the people in this country and not the rulers of this country that conspire against us.

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 01:14 | 488240 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Very cogent and well said Max.

    Sitting here, far away from the US or Israel, I just wonder at the degree brain-washing when educated people profess the options that people like Doszap do.

    Hope might be just a city in Arkansas.


    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 03:45 | 488304 RichardP
    RichardP's picture

    Max, you've changed the subject - perhaps intentionally??  The question is not whether muslims are the only threat to America.  The question is, are muslims a threat to America?  Your post does not begin to address that question.  (And please don't suppose you know how I would answer the question.)


    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 09:08 | 488429 Max Hunter
    Max Hunter's picture

    My statement is not directed towards you alone, you assign yourself way to much importance.

    It is not who is the ONLY threat, but the threat most needed to be dealt with.

    By the way, Muslims are NO threat to this nation. The threats to this nation run banks, corporations, TV stations, Movie Companies, Publishing firms, Law Firms, Judges, Politicians and idiots like you..

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:13 | 489500 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    RichardP - You are a threat to America and no, despite your attempts to perpetuate the lie, the attack on the USS Liberty was not an accident.

    Why don't you go where your heart leads you?


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 21:33 | 488047 ATTILA THE WIMP
    ATTILA THE WIMP's picture

    Every year we got to pay Israel parasite gangster state $3,000,000,000 in tribute. I would rather we drop 3,000,000,000 nukes on them.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:15 | 488094 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    I completely agree with you about the money.   But I don't want anybody getting nuked. 

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 09:18 | 487466 alien-IQ
    alien-IQ's picture

    How wonderful. All we need. For the US to fight yet another war for Israel. Perfect. Just fucking perfect. Because let's face it: this will drag the US into the war and it will become yet another war for America to fight...because obviously two endless wars are not enough...we need a third possible world war. And it's tragically humorous how this article assumes that Russia and China and the rest of the world for that matter will just sit on it's hands with their thumbs up their collective asses as Israel launches yet another one of it's preemptive wars of aggression. This is truly sickening and Israel has become the mad rabid dog of the middle east and must be treated in the same manner one would treat a rabid dog roaming it's streets. Israel is an out of control rogue nation and they are the ONLY NUCLEAR POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST. In addition to that, the combination of their refusal to sign on to the NNPT and their "Samson Option" make them the most dangerous threat to world peace on the face of the earth. This tiny little racist nation, blinded by the delusional belief that they are the "Chosen Ones" is going to be the end of us all unless we come to our senses, ban together and stop them once and for all. Enough already. End this parasitic apartheid state. There can be no peace until they are stopped and stripped of all weapons. Now go ahead and trash this post you bunch of "Israel first" traitors to the US and the world. I'm sick of this shit and I'm sick of Israel and it's supporters.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 12:00 | 487573 Kaiser Sousa
    Kaiser Sousa's picture

    Astute post...

    getting junked apparently by advocates of the Zionist Entity attest to the factual analysis contained herein...even here at zero there r those who exercise "selective morality" based on personal bias...just the way it works i guess...

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 12:46 | 487624 Star Hawk
    Star Hawk's picture

    If we actually lived in a "free-market democracy", the content of the above would be (and would have been) expressed in the mainstream media many, many times (at the very least in any fair op-ed forums).  As we all know, this has NEVER been the case.  Draw the obvious conclusions yourself.

    Sickening is the right word for the reality of Israel/U.S.  Sickening like the festering, corrupt, bloated corpse that it is.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 14:07 | 487682 chistletoe
    chistletoe's picture

    looks to me like the US is being surrounded.

    Simultaneous conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran only scratches the surface.

    don't forget that right now the US Navy is taunting N. Korea to torpedo one of our floating ducks (excuse me, I meant to say nuclear-powered aircraft carriers)

    and the denial to Mexico to export a major cash crop, hemp,

    merely in order to shore up nylon rope sales for DuPont is morphing into

    a pitched battle right on the border.

    How many fronts can the Pentagon wage simultaneously?  Its been an awfully long time since they won one ...

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 14:21 | 487693 GeorgeHayduke
    GeorgeHayduke's picture


    You can't say such things in the mainstream or you're called an anti-semite. Only praise and admiration of Israel is allowed or the PC police make your life miserable.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 14:39 | 487706 israhole
    israhole's picture

    You got that right!  The censors on youtube and wordpress will let somebody bash the Tea Party as "racists" all day long, but just try putting a link to something exposing Israel's crimes. No dice.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:36 | 487877 DosZap
    DosZap's picture


    Ok, and WHO own's YOU TUBE?.

    Calling the Tea Party Folks RACISTS, is like saying the Bamster is a Capitalist.............and believes in the Original Const & BOR's, and never End Games it.

    Sun, 08/01/2010 - 11:25 | 498535 laosuwan
    laosuwan's picture

    are you sure you dont have that backwards? when and where has any mainstream press had anything good to say about israel? I cannot remember seeing anything positive about israel in the press in my entire lifetime. I mean, iran can mow down its own citizens on youtube and not a peep; israel tries to search a ship for weapons and universal outrage. If you want to test my hypothesis go to any blog or university and say something positive about the poor israelis and see what happens.

    Mon, 08/02/2010 - 06:03 | 499265 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    laosuwan - you get the incompetent troll of the week award.  You are a lunatic.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:22 | 487740 DosZap
    DosZap's picture



    As to the dude above.............

    WHO IS THE VERBAL AGRESSOR, and is within months, to a year, of becoming a Nuclear Armed ISALMIC FASCIST STATE, with absolute FRIGGING NUTCAKES at the helm.( Everone, even the Ayatollah's fear him, and his regime).

    Not ONE time has Israel ever threatned ( to my memory) anyone with a Nuclear strike....over the past 40 years+..........

    How many times has Israel HAD to go to war, because she was attacked, or would you sit back, and allow 400 Rockets a day be shot into you country by other RADICAL Jihadists?.

    Would you sit on your ass, and take it?.

    Nope.................I think not.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 17:21 | 487831 desgust
    desgust's picture


    and all, it's a real high honour to get junked by the criminal racist zionists. So be proud of it to be genuine Americans with a strong sense for reality and love for your country.Only people like you may have chance to change the horrible future which is upon us all.

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 11:37 | 488611 WaterWings
    WaterWings's picture

    Great post.

    End the Apartheid! End the mass murder! Jail the Zionist criminals and their American conspirators!

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 12:21 | 487597 Brutlstrudl
    Brutlstrudl's picture

    Lets not forget the Sunburn anti ship missiles. All it takes is one Iranian Corporal having  bad day

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:30 | 487798 thisandthat
    thisandthat's picture

    Heh, people talk about nukes like it was a video game - ever heard about Chernobyl? Ask Israelis how they feel about DU ammo used in Irak...

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 23:06 | 488149 Cathartes Aura
    Cathartes Aura's picture

    . . .and Afghanistan, and Yugoslavia. . .

    and carried back "home" by US soldiers, passed on to their sexual partners, and then their children.

    rock on warmongers.

    Sat, 07/24/2010 - 23:50 | 487254 RobotTrader
    RobotTrader's picture


    Lemme guess...

    -  Stocks down

    -  10-year yield crashes to 2.2%

    -  Short-term T-Bill yields to .00000001%

    U.S. Dollar rallies again, enabling China's vast horde of FX reserves to once again skyrocket in value, enticing them to continue wolfing down more and more Treasuries issued week in, week out.

    Eventually, we'll be running even bigger deficits, financed at virtually zero cost, and plunging interest rates will eventually trigger "Animal Spirits" and risk assets will be embraced once again.

    Wash, Rinse, Repeat.........


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:29 | 487274 Fast Twitch
    Fast Twitch's picture

    And gold ?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 02:07 | 487334 knukles
    knukles's picture

    Try also;

    Dollar thru the moon, flight to safety
    T-bills trade at Negative Yields.... return of, not return on money
    Gold skyrockets
    100-200 bp rally in 10 year yields

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 05:44 | 487388 Snidley Whipsnae
    Snidley Whipsnae's picture

    Right on Robot Trader. Rush to buy dollars to purchase oil at the 'new and much higher price'. Dollar gets a new lease on life for a while, can kicked down the road a bit further.

    Flight to 'safety' of US Treasury issues. Makes me gag to say it.

    Flight to real safety of gold by those looking beyond the end of their noses.

    Stocks down except Lockheed Martin and other defense contractors.

    US main st economy goes further into the tank as gas pump prices soak up much discretionary spending. Double dip assured.

    ROTC classes flooded with new students because it's the most likely route to a 'job' upon graduation.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 10:14 | 487491 fiddler_on_the_roof
    fiddler_on_the_roof's picture

    100%. Such a war will drive up the price
    Of oil and create high demand for dollars

    And china will finance it via their savings
    Account aka Treasury purchase. That will
    be sick to watch unfold. Countries like India
    And other poor countries will suffer thru
    Supply shock induced inflation.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:42 | 487886 DosZap
    DosZap's picture



    "100%. Such a war will drive up the price
    Of oil and create high demand for dollars

    And china will finance it via their savings
    Account aka Treasury purchase."


    China will use their Treasuries, and Bonds and cash out, and buy ASSETS, and PROPERTIES in the US, at FAR under Mkt value prices, thereby, saving their ass, and screwing US to death.The takeover of America,using it's own that's a real special idea.

    Want to be afraid of something, chew on that.


    IF I were them it's exactly what I would do.




    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 19:14 | 487913 Things that go bump
    Things that go bump's picture

    I'd like to see them try and keep it.   

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 21:59 | 488074 PeterB
    PeterB's picture

    You gotta love them US dollars like a junkie loves narcotics. Unlike narcotics the USD can act as both a stimulant & a depressant. Take your pick. Makes one kinda realise why there is an insatiable demand for such an instrument. USD the super religion & first choice of oligarchs the world there's a slogan.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:01 | 487259 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    React rationally to such a strike? Really? There is a rational response to be had when one's country has been attacked on the flimsiest of pretexts?

    You sir are biased beyond belief. To collectively refer to Iranian leadership as Mullahs is disingenuous. What should you collectively call the American leadership then? Some terrible words come to mind.

    There is no turning back from this disaster scenario anyways. It is time, when when it's time, it and tide wait for no man.

    Take off your seat belts, your blinders and your sugar habit and girdle them loins.

    We are all going to be tested. The market, commodities, gold, silver, stocks, bonds... none of this will matter.

    As for every creature must
    It's ashes to ashes
    And dust to dust.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:50 | 487282 i-dog
    i-dog's picture

    Well said, ORI.

    All this bullshit sabre rattling about Iran "may have 2 nuclear weapons by 2020, so we've got to go and stomp all over them now!" is a front for other agendas. Islamic Pakistan has 70-80 nuclear weapons NOW (in god only knows who's hands), and the US has over 6,000 nuclear weapons to wave around!! Iran is nothing more than an impediment to direct US control over ALL oil supplies.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 01:22 | 487310 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Thanks Snoop-dog!

    Yes, so much long-term sub-surface maneuvering is finally coming to surface. Alert senses can see them.

    Exciting times for sure. Sane, mad, illoical or otherwise.

    Unstable systems can change state at stunning rates with the right, homeopathically applied catalyst.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 09:05 | 487454 hedgeless_horseman
    hedgeless_horseman's picture

    Iran has Weapons of Mass Destruction --->  U.S. gets control over Iran's oil.

    Wash, rinse, repeat.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:32 | 487873 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    How predictable eh, HH?

    Pity that something of such destructive power is so unstoppable.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 05:50 | 487389 Snidley Whipsnae
    Snidley Whipsnae's picture

    Excellent response ORI...

    Perhaps the Iranians will spread flowers at the feet of the invading army? After all, that was predicted prior the invasion of Iraq...How well has that worked out?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 07:40 | 487421 Sneeve
    Sneeve's picture

    Yes, Thank you ORI for a little bit of lucidity in the face of all the wardogs who tend to jump all over these kind of posts, defending Truth, Justice, and the American Way.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:40 | 487884 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Sneeve, see the interesting junk pattern?

    Hmmmmmm....tells a story right there.



    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:36 | 487876 Oh regional Indian
    Oh regional Indian's picture

    Glad to strike a chord SW.

    We are living an unbelievable echo of Iraq.

    Not in my name you say?


    Something like that.



    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:04 | 487261 arthur darrell
    arthur darrell's picture

    Israel is way ahead of any speculation of this sort. Capitalism, education and democracy are the clear winners in any such encounter. Deflation will cure the oil price and better to be short everything and long cash. The after effect of any nuclear weaponry depends in great part upon the direction the wind blows. The closure of the Strait effectvely bankrupts the mullahs. Aint gonna happen. PERIOD. Furthermore, forget nuclear weaponry altogether when so many countries live on top of each other. the solution will only come through education and that is a long way away.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:16 | 487265 Kreditanstalt
    Kreditanstalt's picture

    All this concern just to support the U.S.' "summer driving season"???

    Maybe the least destabilizing aspect of a nuclear-capable Iran would be as a counter to the Zionist nuts in Israel and their U.S. puppets...bring it on

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 03:10 | 487357 jeff montanye
    jeff montanye's picture

    here, here.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 06:15 | 487398 Snidley Whipsnae
    Snidley Whipsnae's picture

    Kreditanstalt... Cheney is gone but the neo cons linger and like the black death keep popping up just when all thought the plague was over.

    Contrary to the author of this screed the 'green revolution' is not and has not been a success in Iran and that is why the neo cons are getting a bit of traction for their lunatic war mongering plans.

    Of course in the aftermath of an attack on Iran there are several possible strategies for the neo cons. No success will bring the claim 'we did not use enough force'. Success (whatever it is and however it is measured by neo cons) will bring them a greater audience and probably a license to bomb every country on their hit list...their short list might be the countries that we haven't bombed.

    Since bombing oil producing soverigns is good for the dollar why not bomb all of them?  Irony of ironies.

    This should settle any debate about any advantage of fiat currencies over commodities backed currencies. If soverigns were forced to fund wars with current taxes would we be fighting three and considering an invasion of Iran?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 09:08 | 487455 grunion
    grunion's picture

    "The summer driving season..." has not yet come to pass. Pick another curtain.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 16:58 | 487812 hound dog vigilante
    hound dog vigilante's picture

    Right on.


    I don't trust/fear fundamentalist islamic mullah "nuts" any more or less than I trust/fear the fundamentalist judeo-christian neo-con "nuts" running the USA.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:56 | 487902 DosZap
    DosZap's picture


    any more or less than I trust/fear the fundamentalist judeo-christian neo-con "nuts" running the USA."

    Look up Neo Con, and you will find, if you read it correctly........ Real Judeo-Christians, would not go along with it.

    Which Judeo/Christian groups you know of, strapping bombs on their kids, and murdering their own families, and children(honor killings),the way I read it, we have Neo Cons in charge now...................the Majority.

    And, they are sympathetic to Islam...............down to the prayer rugs, and Mecca.

    With the exception of Desert Storm( a U.N./ NATO  sanctioned attack, with limits, and Iraq,Iran ( the ONLY war Republicans have started, since Lincoln).

    Who are the Neo-Cons, what party is PUSHING that agenda hardest?.........

    It's as obvious as the nose on your face.( I know both hands are dirty), but go back to TR,Wilson,FDR,LBJ, and the root of our mess and most of the blood is on their hands.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:25 | 487271 Uncle Remus
    Uncle Remus's picture


    Oh wait, you're serious? There is more to all this than Iran, Israel and the US. Much more. And, as we all know, there are opportunities in crisis. [taps clip on helmet, inserts into weapon]


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 05:51 | 487390 MeTarzanUjane
    MeTarzanUjane's picture

    Nah, I'm pretty sure this guy is not serious, he writes:
    "Israel and her puppet-master the United States".

    The puppet-master is who? Most would agree it's the other way around.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 00:51 | 487283 Misean
    Misean's picture

    "Although given that Iran currently could have as many as 8,000 centrifuges enriching uranium by December"

    They could also be building 3 complete Death Stars in the bowels of an underground TARDIS swiped from the Timelords and breading Dahleks!!!!  How can we be like Chamberlain and not act to such an existential threat!


    BTW Oh great proprietor of this site, and I mean no disrespect, but where did you dig up this Neo-Clown War Pig?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 02:41 | 487347 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    I looked at the posts to see how to express myself by way of a complimentary response.  ORI is very very good, but this phrasing really takes the cake,  sums it all up if you will.

    Oh great proprietor of this site, and I mean no disrespect, but where did you dig up this Neo-Clown War Pig?

    Thanks Misean


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 06:26 | 487400 Snidley Whipsnae
    Snidley Whipsnae's picture

    "where did you dig up this Neo-Clown War Pig" Pick a direction at random and throw a rock in DC...Even odds it hits a left over neo con.

    They are wandering DC like zombies, like Napolean's stunned troops roamed Paris. Of course there are more neo cons than French Troops that made it back from Russia...

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 09:11 | 487459 grunion
    grunion's picture

    Yes! ...And they are being replaced by something far more ominous.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 17:02 | 487816 hound dog vigilante
    hound dog vigilante's picture


    Obama/Hillary are neocon pigeons just as W. was... nothing has changed.




    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 07:40 | 487420 IBelieveInMagic
    IBelieveInMagic's picture

    Also an overlooked point is that there are other countries who are also heavily dependent on energy from Iran and other ME countries -- they may not stand around benignly while their economies are wrecked by this idiocy.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 01:25 | 487298 themosmitsos
    themosmitsos's picture


    as it's symptomatic not just of this piece, but of all analysis emanating from US circles on this issue, it is absolutely astonishing to me how severely detached from reality all these Iran related discussions are. Bordering on delusional, and proportionally, as far removed from fact as a "normal" person (who doesn't follow news) who thinks that anyone who thinks Israel's about to bomb Iran is crazy, "in this day and age."

    This kind of grandiose overestimation of one's abilities (Israel/US), and severe underestimation of the opponent (Iran) is historically causal of MASSIVE conflicts. If the aforementioned scenarios were anywhere near likely, CLINTON would've bombed Iran in the 90s. The continuous delays of action are indicative of the difficulty (impossibility) of the objectives short of all out total war invasion, NOT of the ease with which they could be achieved.

    It is so disturbing to me how pampered and soft and frankly, delusional, our (US) society has become, in it's iphone Lady GaGa bubble ..... I mean your first two scenarios aren't materially different  from the current state of affairs!

    Again, no offense, but your analysis demonstrates an absolute lack of geopolitics, diplomacy, tactics and strategy, for starters {as does ALL current analysis (public) in this country}. No rudimentary grasp of: ......... A) of command and control limitations as demonstrated recently in Lebanon, B) air superiority limitations demostrated in Serbia, C) the dynamic assymetric threat Iran poses globally, not just in the Strait of Hormuz, D) the very fact that Islamic populaces will unite behind any Islamic sect (Shia or Sunni) which is seen to SUCCESSFULLY (key word) be fighting back against US and Israel, E) the tactical advantage Iran has with 200,000 US soldiers on its borders (a US advantage only until a few dozen a week start being boxed home KIA) which Iran can engage DIRECTLY thereby escalating the conflict and limiting US options [and resolve] (because), F) strategy, as currently Iran WANTS a war, Israel fears it, while the US outright seeks to avoid it, ...... and finally a little fact aka G) IRAN ALREADY HAS NUCLEAR WEAPONS!!! IDIOTS!!! Why do you think US & Israel keep stalling?

    Try to understand this please, America, in your idiotic pampered little iphone world. Not all wars start by accident or some sad (aw) misunderstanding amongst people that would otherwise get along (aw so sad) or if their leaders weren't evil/crazy/etc (boo). Ever been in a fist fight? Sometimes, the other guy WANTS to fight. IRAN WANTS A WAR. ITCHING FOR IT. BAD.

    Iran's behavior are not the manoeuvers of a side which is in ANY WAY trying to avoid conflict. These are the VERY SHREWD strategic, tactical, and diplomatic machinations of a side TRYING to engage it's opponent on its OWN terms and timetable IN ORDER TO WIN, something which is now apparently even unclear to our military command structure, as our society's softness and bubble disease has seeped its way there also (if you believe different, you must not remember how the US Defense & FP apparatus behaved pre-1990). It's nothing new unfortunately, keeps happening in History. 

    Militarily, you want a mild scenario? Start here. Iran WILL SINK a US Aircraft Carrier. 100% guaranteed. Start there. Laugh now, I'm sure you will. That's my whole point. First thing they teach you at West point is to underestimate the enemy and list all the things he could never accompish.

    Yes, should the US ever bring its full conventional war machine to bear against Iran, total war, it would crush it....Think chickenshit Obama will do so when not even "tough-guy" (LOL) Bush wouldn't? Exactly. Then there's that little problem of the need for the draft in that eventuality, of our effeminate, pc, drunk, don't ask don't tell current male generation into soldiery, which would be a joke even as cannon fodder.

    Oil will jump $15!!! Common Tyler! And the endless idiotic discussions of the discontented Iranian populace! hahaha OMG. Where did you read that, twitter? Must be true. 1-2-3-4-500,000 in a nation of 75mill. wow. Real threat to the regime. Clearly, in history, when someone (US/Israel) is trying to screw someone else (Iran) that nation's people always blame themselves, not the enemy, especially after you bomb them. I know, they've got rock n roll, so they're westernized. WTF?!?!?! Are you all on acid?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 01:27 | 487315 Mark Noonan
    Mark Noonan's picture

    It is theoretically possible for Iran to sink a US carrier using their three Kilo class submarines or, perhaps, one of their many surface-to-surface, shore-based missiles.  But it is highly unlilkely unless the US Navy is really slack.  A carrier doesn't just wander around the oceans by itself.  Each carrier proceeds surrounded by ships designed to provide protection against both torpedo and missile attack - planes fly combat air patrol overhead, ASW helicopters are constantly on the prowl, anti-submarine frigates and/or destroyers are constantly on the lookout, and there's bound to be US attack submarines in the area, any one of which would be a match for all three of the obsolescent Kilos.

    To be sure, a hot-shot Iranian skipper still might manage to get himself in to position to launch his torpedos - anything is, after all, possible.  But don't count on it - and any attempt to make such an attack would probably be responded to with devastating effects on the small, out-of-date Iranian navy.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 01:46 | 487327 Clancy
    Clancy's picture

    This is my favorite delusion ever.  The assertion that US carrier battle groups are absolutely invincible, that the Phalanx has a 1000% interception rate, cannot be overwhelmed, and never runs out of ammo.




    You are boats.  I am a continent.  Let's see who runs out of juice and resources first.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 02:19 | 487341 RichardP
    RichardP's picture

    Except he didn't say that they were absolutely invincible.  He made allowance that they might get hit.  Not delusional at all.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 05:15 | 487382 Clancy
    Clancy's picture

    Aircraft carriers haven't been battle tested in a real war since the invention of missiles. The Russians and the Chinese believe they're obsolete, and don't build them.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 06:48 | 487409 Snidley Whipsnae
    Snidley Whipsnae's picture

    Aircraft carriers have not been tested since the battle of Midway or Okinawa...long before 3,000+ MPH missles and very high speed torpedoes. No way a carrier and it's support group stops a dozen hypersonic missles launched simultaneously and targeted on the carrier. Over the horizon to target is ~ 12 seconds and the missles begin violent evasive manuvers as soon as they detect line of sight radar lock on.

    All naval line officers worth their salt know the carriers are vulnerable and sailing them into the Persian Gulf or the Tiawan Straits is pure bluff.

    BTW, hypersonic missles are not limited to land launch, but can be air launched or submarine or surface ship launched. 

    There are hundred miles of cliffs in Iran overlooking the Persian Gulf. The cliffs are full of natural and man made caves. Guess what is in the caves?, besides guano.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:43 | 487762 themosmitsos
    themosmitsos's picture

    Tip of the cap to you sir. ;)

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:29 | 488113 Mark Noonan
    Mark Noonan's picture


    To be sure, the narrow, shallow waters of the Persian Gulf are not ideal for a carrier battle group to sail in - carriers are best in the widest of wide seas, able to send out the planes to engage the enemy hundreds of miles from the battle group.  But they can also operate, at need, in narrow waters.  This is especially true of the waters around the Persian Gulf where ground-based air support can be called in and, of course, we know the sea down to the last inch (I was deployed there in 1985-86 and we were already closely surveying the Gulf - doubtless we know have exceptionally detailed maps and know just where it is possible for a submarine to lurk).

    It is to be hoped that given the lack of air support requirement in Iraq (whatever we need there can easily be obtained from within Iraq, or from nearby Kuwait), the Navy will keep the carriers outside the Gulf. 

    Sun, 08/01/2010 - 11:17 | 498525 laosuwan
    laosuwan's picture

    hold on, didnt the iranians seed the gulf with mines once before, bringing all ships to a standstill? That's a pretty low tech but effective way to shut down a carrier group, or bring it to a stop and a sitting duck in short order

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 12:32 | 487612 Citizen of an I...
    Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

    ...US carrier battle groups are absolutely invincible, that the Phalanx has a 1000% interception rate, cannot be overwhelmed, and never runs out of ammo.

    Wow, who said that?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:40 | 487885 Clancy
    Clancy's picture

    A lot of people with serious boners for US military hardware.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 23:17 | 488163 Cathartes Aura
    Cathartes Aura's picture

    genuine laughter here, thanks for that.

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 05:08 | 488344 fajensen
    fajensen's picture

    Every goddamn thing written by Tom Clancy ...

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 12:16 | 487590 New_Meat
    New_Meat's picture

    Mark-depends a lot on RoE that they are under from NCA.  Kilos can be really quiet.  I'd hate to have to try to deconflict the box with Orange and Green subs possible, may or may not want to lash them and force a response.  China can do it in open ocean:

    - Ned


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:31 | 488116 Mark Noonan
    Mark Noonan's picture


    Indeed - though unless things have changed mightily, all ship's captains have authority to defend their vessels by whatever means prove necessary.  This is why I really don't think that the Iranians would be able to get close enough unless the Navy is slack - as it was when the USS Stark was hit.

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 00:26 | 488211 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    all ship's captains have authority to defend their vessels by whatever means prove necessary

    So the people on the Mavi Marmara should have executed the comandos they held when they had the chance?

    What about the USS Liberty?  Did they use whatever proved necessary?


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 03:31 | 487363 KDawg
    KDawg's picture

    Brilliant !!!

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 09:15 | 487463 grunion
    grunion's picture

    This all sounds like something I recently read discussing the opinions of the French generals and others in 1939.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 03:58 | 487365 Gold_Buggery
    Gold_Buggery's picture

    Brilliant, thoughtful, and totally instructive! Thank you!

    Any pointers on where to find equally valuable perspectives.

    Thanks for making the time to educate us.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 07:56 | 487427 proLiberty
    proLiberty's picture

    My, my.  What self-loathing.  If you were cheering for the Iranians, what would be different?


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 18:59 | 487906 megatoxic
    megatoxic's picture

    As between the Iranians and the Israelis, anyone with a conscience would have to side with the former.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 07:58 | 487431 kaiten
    kaiten's picture

    "Iran WILL SINK a US Aircraft Carrier. 100% guaranteed."

    Yes, very likely, and to do that they could use few of these:


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 08:05 | 487435 IBelieveInMagic
    IBelieveInMagic's picture

    Thanks for a much needed rant!

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 09:14 | 487460 hedgeless_horseman
    hedgeless_horseman's picture

    Every muslim leader, and especially Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, wants to be the next Ho Chí Minh.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 10:24 | 487501 laosuwan
    laosuwan's picture

    are you that chumbawamba guy back again with a new name?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 11:52 | 487564 mtomato2
    mtomato2's picture

    He is not.  Chubbie always resorts to ad Hominem attacks and anti-zionist vitriol-filled rhetoric.  Believe me.  I'd know Chubbie Baby if he were around.

    Sun, 08/01/2010 - 11:12 | 498519 laosuwan
    laosuwan's picture

    then it must be this "bringin it" guy.

    Chubbie II

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:39 | 487758 Shylockracy
    Shylockracy's picture

    Well-reasoned post, themosmitsos. The fact you have been junked 9 times so far shows that Zionist warmongers will not accept anything less than a full kowtow to their criminal agenda.

    I hereby officially dejunk you and thank you for the post.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 01:13 | 487300 Mark Noonan
    Mark Noonan's picture

    I begin to wonder if an Israeli strike is not in the cards.  It is clear that the Obama Administration is prepared to live with a nuclear-armed Iranian regime and I don't know if Israel is really willing to break to cleanly with us.  There is the prospect that Obama is giving tacit approval for Israel to take care of the Iranian nuclear problem for us, but I just don't see that level of thinking in the Obama Administration - they are more likely to apply the pie-in-the-sky liberal ideology to such matters rather than a cold calculation of US interests.

    If, however, Israel strikes, I doubt we'll see much more than words from Iran - maybe with a spike in terrorist attacks against Israel and the United States.  Iran's government is poorly positioned to go to the brink with anyone right now.  An Israeli attack might create a boost in public support for Iran's government - but it also might not; 30 years of complete failure to improve the lives of the Iranian people have not built up a reservoir of underlying support.  Obama can count on Americans rallying 'round the flag - the mullahs in Iran, can't.  But even if they get a boost in support, it will be temporary and swiftly vanish as Iranians still have to deal with the increasing difficulty of just making a living.  It also should be kept in mind that Iran's regime is just another collection of corrupt oligarchs - and like all such, their primary goal is personal power and wealth.  Rolling the dice in a manner which might bring up a general war is not something they are apt to do.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 02:55 | 487351 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    Wow are you delusional?  This part's hillarious - Obama can count on Americans rallying 'round the flag

    Are you refering to this - Netanyahu: US easily manipulated

    This is good for a laugh too - It also should be kept in mind that Iran's regime is just another collection of corrupt oligarchs

    Another? Collection of corrupt oligarchs? You mean just like ours in the US of A?

    and like all such, their primary goal is personal power and wealth.

    How stupid are you that you can't see the irony of your words?


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 09:20 | 487467 grunion
    grunion's picture

    Your name calling and disparaging comments are rude, offensive and do not belong in the realm of civilized discussion.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 15:54 | 487771 Max Hunter
    Max Hunter's picture

    Why don't you just use the "i'm rubber you are glue" taunt..

    Give me a break.. His response was spot on.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:30 | 488114 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    What name calling?  'Stupid' is an adjective.  And he is stupid if he can't see that the negative remarks he's making about Iran apply equally well or better to the HOMELAND.

    Corrupt oligarchs ... over there ... not over here.  No way, no sir.

    What a douche-bag.

    Your hommies on this thread are baying for blood via mass murder of innocents in a nuclear first strike and you're telling me I'm not civilized?

    You can take your fake definition of civilized and stick it in your a$$.

    Hey ... remember ... never forget.  Except when it's convenient.

    Where's CD?  Talk about cognitive dissonance!  You're buried in it.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:33 | 488118 Mark Noonan
    Mark Noonan's picture


    The difference is that we at least retain the potential to turn out our corrupt oligarchs every two to four years...the Iranian people have not got this ability.  It does matter that this is the case.

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 00:36 | 488215 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    we at least retain the potential to turn out our corrupt oligarchs every two to four years

    As a propagandist, you are a failure.  Do you know how stupid you sound to any thinking person?

    We get to choose between one corrupt oligarch approved sock-puppet or another.

    We finally got rid of Bush and wound up with Obummer.  How did that change things?  Let's see, the 'Surge' moved from Iraq to Afghanistan.  Unprecedented corporate welfare payments to Banksters continue unabated.  Is that progress?  Maybe for your agenda it is, but for the American people, it's just more useless war and wealth transfer.

    People say the Iranian democracy is not a real democracy because the Mullahs must approve the candidates.  How different is that from our system where the Bankster/Bildebeger stamp of approval is required to get past go?

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 11:29 | 487542 desgust
    desgust's picture

    mark Nooan, you are stupid, brainwashed, antiAmerican or Jew.  Actually the WHOLE USA IS RULED BY JEWS. All KEY POSITIONS are occupied by whom, you stupid Asses? How could you let it go so far? You've lost your country. It's not the USA or Europe who need the war! It's Israel to become the hegemon in ME. It's not  to protect Europe or Israel, it's to crash IRAN, RUSSIA and CHINA. And it's because you are B.R.O.K.E. Get it in your stupid heads, you need WAR and BLOOD because you are BROKE!!!

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 11:56 | 487569 mtomato2
    mtomato2's picture

    re. desgust:

    ...yeah... I remember when I took my first hit of meth...

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 17:30 | 487839 Citizen of an I...
    Citizen of an IKEA World's picture

    Hey desgust,

    Look behind you, there's a Joooooooooooo!




    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:36 | 488122 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    I think it's funny he wants to go by the name 'Mark Noonan'.  Like the assassination gang with the fake passports, he wants to pass.  Why not 'Regular Anglo', 'Disinterested Typical Guy', 'Wolf Blitzer', 'Howitzer Explosion'.

    Come out of the closet mark and tell us who you really are.  You can start by telling us how many passports you have.



    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 22:37 | 488123 Mark Noonan
    Mark Noonan's picture


    "Noonan"is not a name traditionally identified with Judaism.  And truth be told, I can't be part of the International Jewish Conspiracy because I've already signed on with the less known Noonan Global Conspiracy to Take Over the World and Have San Diego Win a Super Bowl. 

    As it turns out, however, in a strange bit of family history, I discovered after my parents had passed away that my mother was born Jewish.  This came out in the form of a security questionaire my father had to fill out when he was being considered for a position in the Nixon Administration.  How this aligns with the Conspiracy is a bit murky - my father just figured that my maternal grandfather wanted to fit in with a bunch of midwest, Protestant bigots...but, who knows?  Maybe my secret instructions from the cryogenically frozen Walt Disney await just the proper signal?

    Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:18 | 488218 Bringin It
    Bringin It's picture

    Mark - you choose to identify with who you choose to identify with.  Walt Disney was not a Jew.  I think you get your signals from some place else.

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 17:11 | 487821 hound dog vigilante
    hound dog vigilante's picture

    "...Obama can count on Americans rallying 'round the flag..."


    I'm not so sure.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 01:20 | 487309 b_thunder
    b_thunder's picture

    Bradley Schaeffer  forgot to mention one more scenario:

    Iran's nuke sites get bombed, the Iran's revolutionary guard gets bombed too. 

    The Iranin people use the opportunity rise up and crush the theocratic regime. 

    Oil drops to where it belongs, $40-45, as both Iran and Iraq grow more and more stable and begin to dump large amounts of crude to pay for their own reconstruction.


    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 01:37 | 487323 Eally Ucked
    Eally Ucked's picture

    That's really good! Ha,Ha!

    Sun, 07/25/2010 - 02:20 | 487340 knukles
    knukles's picture

    Holy Crap Amahandjobiman!

    That was one of the Fundamental Premises put forth regarding the Invasion of Iraq, Part Deux.  Shock and Awe coupled with the God Given Insights and Freedom Loving Desire of the Local Population they'd Rise Up Throwing of the Chains of Bondage, Uniting with the West, Holding Hands, Merrily Singing Kumbaya, Forever. 

    Worked Great First Time, Too!
    God I love this Country!

    Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!