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Guest Post: Possible Reaction Scenarios To A Preemptive Israeli Strike On Iran
Submitted by Bradley Schaeffer
Possible Reaction Scenarios To A Preemptive Israeli Strike On Iran
I have written in the past about the prospect of a nuclear Iran and its destabilizing effect in the world’s most important energy region. But what if Israel strikes before Tehran’s nuclear ambitions are realized? Although given that Iran currently could have as many as 8,000 centrifuges enriching uranium by December (IAEA estimate), an Israeli strike now, as opposed to say 2003 when the secret program was first revealed, may not effectively shut down the decentralized program. Still, it could cause a frustrating delay in Iran’s timetable and, depending on the line the mullahs take immediately succeeding the attack, weaken the regime’s hold on a populace that is more educated, more worldly, more pro-Western and less easily cowed than others in the region as the green protests last year revealed.
The (literally) billion dollar question of course for commodities traders is what will be the effect on the price of global energy in the immediate and longer dated aftermath of such a military strike? As with the current diplomatic stand-off today, much of that will depend on Tehran’s reaction. Here are three possible scenarios should we wake up to news of Israeli fighter-bombers winging away from Natanz, leaving a burning nuclear facility and a thousand questions in their jet wash behind them.
Best case scenario: Iran plays the victim. Instead of striking back militarily, Iran uses the attack to show the world that Israel and her puppet-master the United States are the aggressors. The mullahs may even use such an attack to shore up their public support at home. "It may make sense for the Iranians to play the victim," said IHS Global Insight Middle East analyst Gala Riani. "They may also use it to build the regime's legitimacy internally." Sure, they would angrily denounce the criminal raids, invite the international press to view the destroyed buildings and, of course, the hospitals treating the inevitable civilian casualties and the very public funerals that would follow. But in the end, especially if the damage is minimal, they may try to turn this military lemon into p.r. lemonade. I would expect a mild knee-jerk rally in crude oil (depending on the base price at the time of the strike). Call it $5.00 to $15.00 but I think any rally will be brief and a selling/shorting opportunity if anything.
Mid-case scenarios: Iran could retaliate in one of two-ways (or both) short of major escalation of violence. They could intensify their proxy war against the United States and her allies in Afghanistan and Iraq as well as Israel in Lebanon and the Palestinian territories through Hezbollah and Hamas respectively. Such actions’ short-term impact could have a similar impact on crude prices as the best-case victim scenario, especially if the attacks focus on Israel which is already under the gun so to speak. Although Israel has threatened to hold Syria and Lebanon responsible for any Hezbollah attacks, in the end it will be the intensity of the attacks and level U.S. support for retaliatory actions that will determine the degree of escalation such a declaration could imply.
It must be noted however that should there be a marked increase in violence against Western forces, especially beyond the immediate areas of Gulf conflict, and particularly militant-launched attacks on oil-focused targets such as refineries, pipelines, and the like, global tensions could rise quickly. This is especially true if Israel waits until the new year when a more friendly Republican-controlled Congress (if predictions hold that is) may press the tepid Obama administration for a more punishing response to Tehran’s machinations. In this case we could see oil’s floor set at perhaps $10-$20 or more higher than pre-strike levels and remain there for some time.
Worst-case scenario: Iran could react with great force, launching conventional warheads against Israeli targets while at the same time following through with its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the most important maritime route through which 17 million barrels of crude oil move each day. The immediate supply shock would send oil futures spiraling into the $140+ range (roughly double where they are now). "Iran doesn't even need to be successful in their threat," said Michael Wittner, global head of energy research at Societe Generale. "Even a credible threat or near miss and insurance rates will spike. Then no one's going to send any oil through there for a couple of weeks until somebody's navy can re-establish control."
Should the Iranians actually attempt to close the narrow sea lanes over which they frown, the United States Navy will be compelled to re-open them by force. This will unleash unintended consequences that are anyone’s best guess. Although Iran’s ability to maintain a blockade in the face of the most powerful navy in history is in doubt, certainly the price spike will hold as insurance rates skyrocket for a time and such costs are passed on to consumers. Also re-routing the oil overland or drawing it from other regions will entail higher transportation costs and risks of their own.
Commodities derivatives are driven by uncertainty. They are, in fact, risk management instruments to be used to mitigate uncertainties in just such scenarios as described above. Uncertainty is inherently bullish. I cannot conceive of a scenario in which oil prices will fall in the event of an Israeli strike that seems more and more likely by the day.
Sadly, I do not see the current Iranian regime reacting rationally to such a strike and thus do I lean more towards the latter two possibilities I lay out above. My advice, better to be long and wrong, for a while, then wake up short when the balloon goes up. Demand for crude oil is not going away any time soon regardless…access to supplies, however, may soon be another matter entirely.
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I have long advocated such a strike against Iranian Nuclear Production. I have backed this postion up by making sure that we can withstand $10.00 per gallon gasoline prices without disrupting the household budget. We have made preparations in case such a strike goes bad and some how the United States gets hit in return in the lower 48. We even have some gasoline stocks hidden in case the supply system fails and no gas is availible anywhere. But it is pathetic and puny compared to what length of time it could last.
I have used FSX Flight Simulator to fly from Israel to Iran by a variety of ways and learned that a direct route only takes a few hours while a tanker supported route will take even longer. You can sort of set up a remote strip somewhere quiet, really quiet long enough to make things happen coming and going and then take everything apart and go.
So, let things happen; the chips will fall where they may. Let the Markets and Commerce go crazy. Let the less or unprepared peoples go nutz and riot or whatever it is they do. We already had a taste of what might happen on the day 9-11 happened. Desiel jumped from 1.80 to 5.60 where we were within hours. We already had full tanks in our rig for the week as the towers burned before anyone could raise the prices.
I would like to see the People of Iran, the regular people sort things out and save themselves and thier Nation as a path to freedom and living the way they want to live, not the way the Iranian Government will have them live.
We have been dealing with Iran ever since the Shah (Correct spelling?) was run out of town and the failed Hostage Situation as well as the 1983 Marine Barracks Bombing in Beruit (Anyone old enough to REMEMBER THAT!) That was the first strike to the USA by our enemies with Iran behind the scenes at every turn.
I just hope and pray that when someone does work up the Balls and the Moxie to unleash the bombs of whatever kind, that hell is properly executed upon the weapons program of Iran and that they make it bent down, dominated and eradicated Proper.
We have those B2's and it might take them about a few days to get to Iran and back, but if a few big bombs go off and no one reported the event, did it really happen?
Such a strike that closes off or chokes the flow of oil through the Gulf and the resulting fight to reopen the lanes by some big Navy against Iran will probably make us FINALLY accept the fact that Oil is Obselete and we need to find another mode of energy and make it happen. Putting the entire Middle East out of the Oil Business (Remember the recent "Drill Baby Drill- That became Spill Baby Spill?"
We had a chance to open ANWAR Properly like 20 years ago and they never did anything but sit and talk. If they actually got off thier obese asses and opened the place, we would have ANWAR at capacity relaying fuel and gas to the USA and maybe even enough to export to other lands as well.
There is old wells in Texas and the like, all plugged up because it became too hard to drill for a few drops. If things go bad and the drips become 400 dollar a barrel oil, those wells will be reopened.
God Speed, Good Luck and Good hunting.
Yo, carrion-eater
Yep, 2 classmates, plus two colleagues (one a Soldier-we worked together at Sill and he was proving out the mortar locating radar). Always pissed me off that Beirut is "Marines and sailors"-he was a good man.
http://www.coldwar.org/articles/80s/beirut.asp
and I/8 MAR did an incredible assault into Fallujah II. Then they got to go back to Lebanon and run a NEO.
dude, I trained prefix-5, almost nothing worth going nuke.
Poker? Used to know how to play poker w/Soviets. Poker w/Persians? Maybe a new ESPN2 program, make some money for the deuce.
- Ned
The marines were not allowed live ammunition. Why did Raygun put them there?
Great.. let's do it then. Not to be critical though, this time I think we need to find some WMD, to show the pathetic dem lib woosies in the rest of the world that we had a valid reason. Also I think we could have handled the execution of political leaders a little better, we left it up to the Iraqis who ruined the photo-op. Also I think we should change the Gitmo/waterboarding thing so that the Mullahs accept Jesus as their personal savior before they are offed. If we act fast, maybe Dick C. can do a new reality show on Fox.
You may be old enough to remember Beirut but, apparently, you're not old enough to remember this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_David_Hotel_bombing
Iran made a big deal about it's satellite launch in March 2010, specifically about the U shaped trajectory, the 1000 km orbit zone and the 100 kilogram payload. Substitute the rat, turtles and worms with 100 kilograms of small ball bearings packed around a shaped charge. Detonate in high orbit. Say goodbye to a lot of satellites. Just a theory.
good thinking, can they do counter-orbit? -->vector anti-spinward to normal LEO comsats. Watch for huge put buying!
- Ned
One hope the Oligarchs have for getting their hands on Iranian oil, and protecting Israel at the same time, is regime change.
And this fits with recent statements by a former CIA operative in Iran quoted in the US as suggesting that the current administration could be overthrown. This, by the way, fits with expectations coming from the new round of sanctions.
Once a coup is underway, the Oligarchs install a puppet ruler and their economic hit men move in to cheat the country out of billions and, in Iran’s case, trillions—using fraudulent financial reports, rigged elections, payoffs, extortion, sex, and murder—funneling the money to bankers and international corporations. Just exactly how this new strategy for World Empire works, avoiding the specter of nuclear holocaust, is detailed in John Perkins’ book, Confessions of an Economic Hit Man (2004).
Iran in the 1950s became the poster nation for this international corporate skullduggery, using the IMF and the World Bank, to loot the resources of the world:
“The decisive moment occurred in 1951, when Iran rebelled against a British oil company that was exploiting Iranian natural resources and its people. The company was the forerunner of British Petroleum, today’s BP. In response, the highly popular, democratically elected Iranian prime minister (and TIME magazine Man of the Year in 1951), Mohammad Mossadegh, nationalized all Iranian petroleum assets. An outraged England sought the help of her World War II ally, the United States. However, both countries feared that military retaliation would provoke the Soviet Union into taking action on behalf of Iran.
“Instead of sending in the Marines, therefore, Washington dispatched CIA agent Kermit Roosevelt (Theodore’s grandson). He performed brilliantly, winning people over through payoffs and threats. He then enlisted them to organize a series of street riots and violent demonstrations, which created the impression that Mossadegh was both unpopular and inept. In the end, Mossadegh went down, and he spent the rest of his life under house arrest. The pro-American Mohammad Reza Shah became the unchallenged dictator. Kermit Roosevelt had set the stage for a new profession…
He had orchestrated the first U.S. operation to overthrow a foreign government…”
Says Perkins: “The 1960s also witnessed another type of revolution: the empowerment of international corporations and of multinational organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF…a symbiotic relationship developed between governments, corporations, and multinational organizations… with taxpayer money, insulated from congressional oversight and public scrutiny, shielded by a growing body of legal initiatives, including trademark, international trade, and Freedom of Information laws.”
Wonderful JR!
But it doesn't matter for the zionists. They might even know it, but they need their war!
Excellent post JR. I was about to bring up Mossadegh and his ousting by CIA buying 'protesters' and promising favors in the regime of the Shaw.
Strange how the war mongers have selective memories...or, are totally ignorant of history.
You've just described the Green Movement.
nuke Iran .... easy ending
Both you and the article's author assume that the resulting conflict wouldn't escalate to a point where other Eastern and Southern hemisphere nations would get involved.
I.E. Venezuela, a staunch Iranian ally, cuts off our oil supplies, or completely re-routes them to China & elsewhere, in retaliation for a strike on Iran. No?!? Chavez has threatented as much in the past;
I.E. Moscow, realizing that just the mere threat of spreading instability would damage their interests in the Caspian and Central Asian region, intervene either militarily (hint: they have ships already stationed in the Meditarranean) or monetarily (hint: they're already mobilizing an oil banking/pricing scenario with the Iranians, which may very well be the true reason for said attack anyway). Also, the Russians have their personnel @ Bushehr & probably elsewhere, who would be killed in said attack;
I.E. Beijing intervenes militarily or monetarily in order to protect its Iranian assets.
Much easier to stay away from these very real scenarios for many arm-chair generals, despite an attack on Iran already having proven to be the 'mother of all war game scenarios' for nearly a decade already, by both the Israelis as well as by Washington.
I like to think of myself as a couch-potato general thank you.
An attack by either Israel, the US, or both, on Iran would escalate to a point where other Eastern and Southern hemisphere nations could very well get involved.
I.E. Venezuela, a staunch Iranian ally, cuts off our oil supplies, or completely re-routes them to China & elsewhere, in retaliation for a strike on Iran. No?!? Chavez has threatented as much in the past;
I.E. Moscow, realizing that just the mere threat of spreading instability would damage their interests in the Caspian and Central Asian region, intervene either militarily (hint: they have ships already stationed in the Meditarranean) or monetarily (hint: they're already mobilizing an oil banking/pricing scenario with the Iranians, which may very well be the true reason for said attack anyway). Also, the Russians have their personnel @ Bushehr & probably elsewhere, who would be killed in said attack;
I.E. Beijing intervenes militarily or monetarily in order to protect its Iranian assets.
Much easier to stay away from these very real scenarios for many arm-chair generals, despite an attack on Iran already having proven to be the 'mother of all war game scenarios' for nearly a decade already, by both the Israelis as well as by Washington.
There were times where Chavez tried to ship free oil for heating to US Cities in the past, we shipped it back.
We dont need Venezuela oil. They can drown in the stuff. A small slice of time with a few planes can send thier oil production away along with revenue from such.
How can the U.S. maintain its credibility (that thing without which markets cannot function) if it abandons its principles and its allies, in this case the tiny beleaguered nation of Israel? Why would China hesitate to intimidate the Philippines by pushing deeper into disputed Pacific waters? Why would Myanmar's junta not push ahead with nuclear ambitions? Why would North Korea not rachet up its brinksmanship to further heights? Why would Russia not wish to turn the screws tighter on Georgia? Are we to abandon them all? Where in history has a nation done such a thing and what was its fate?
These are all small countries. Each of them is a point of conflict. Not because of some PTB-neocon-oil pipeline route conspiracy but because we chose to be the cop on the beat and not allow bullies to run wild or evil to triumph. That made us a lot of enemies.
Many will call us warmongers. We are. That's where peace comes from. The world, even those that condemn us in public, huddle in the shade of our power. If war comes, even the ones railing against us in this forum will pray for our victory.
We have big problems. Our system is corrupted. But one thing stands between the jungle and the hopes of all men of good will everywhere. And that is the nerve of the young (compared to me) men and women that crew those ships and aircraft and firebases on every continent (and beyond perhaps?) It is also our military leadership, that repository of knowledge and tradition more valuable than satellites or B-2s or Paladins or aircraft carriers.
It is fatuous and ignorant to doubt their resolve or capacity. All of the scenarios of U.S. disaster written about here make good 19th century Errol Flynn movie fodder but little else. Can we bleed? Lots. But if we are pushed into taking off the gloves (and I pray we don't have to) the world might get a glimpse of what seventy years of non-stop development of systems and eight years (note the number) of all-out procurement and a few centuries of American spirit can wreak.
Who desires peace prepares for war. Who will live free will fight. As long as honor and liberty are not dead, we will not abandon Israel.
How can the U.S. maintain its credibility (that thing without which markets cannot function) if it abandons its principles and its allies, in this case the tiny beleaguered nation of Israel? Why would China hesitate to intimidate the Philippines by pushing deeper into disputed Pacific waters? Why would Myanmar's junta not push ahead with nuclear ambitions? Why would North Korea not rachet up its brinksmanship to further heights? Why would Russia not wish to turn the screws tighter on Georgia? Are we to abandon them all? Where in history has a nation done such a thing and what was its fate?
These are all small countries. Each of them is a point of conflict. Not because of some PTB-neocon-oil pipeline route conspiracy but because we chose to be the cop on the beat and not allow bullies to run wild or evil to triumph. That made us a lot of enemies.
Many will call us warmongers. We are. That's where peace comes from. The world, even those that condemn us in public, huddle in the shade of our power. If war comes, even the ones railing against us in this forum will pray for our victory.
We have big problems. Our system is corrupted. But one thing stands between the jungle and the hopes of all men of good will everywhere. And that is the nerve of the young (compared to me) men and women that crew those ships and aircraft and firebases on every continent (and beyond perhaps?) It is also our military leadership, that repository of knowledge and tradition more valuable than satellites or B-2s or Paladins or aircraft carriers.
It is fatuous and ignorant to doubt their resolve or capacity. All of the scenarios of U.S. disaster written about here make good 19th century Errol Flynn movie fodder but little else. Can we bleed? Lots. But if we are pushed into taking off the gloves (and I pray we don't have to) the world might get a glimpse of what seventy years of non-stop development of systems and eight years (note the number) of all-out procurement and a few centuries of American spirit can wreak.
Who desires peace prepares for war. Who will live free will fight. As long as honor and liberty are not dead, we will not abandon Israel.
Wow, this article/post has more comments than any in the last day or two! People must really be concerned about how Israel has been conducting itself.
DUMP TRAITORS TO THE US!
A 3000 yr civilisation clashing with another 3000 yr civilation - another series of endless warfare and suffering and ultimately leading to their destruction and the rise of new powers. It used to be west asia vs greeks, now their proxies are fighting the continuation of the same war - nuclear weapons, battles groups, fighters/bombers bal bla bla is all bullshit sideshows - a war is won on the ground, as shown by Iraq and Afghanistan (wars which are still not won). The end result is destruction to both sides, history repeats. All the cheerleaders here are abetting mass murder, I bet 2000 years ago their ancestors were doing the same cheerleading to go to war, and the sme interest groups were supplying the money to make it happen.
!
Some fools here are saying " Nuke Iran " that would be a huge
mistake... A week later Washington D. C. would be hit with
a Nuke or a Bio-Chem blast... there are Iran people in the
USA that would get some pay-back...
the sooner oil prices rise, the sooner electric and hyrdrogen fuel powered cars are massmarketed, the sooner the middle east loses its appeal as a political and military target of the u.s. coal, lng, nuclear, hydro, and alternative energy CAN fill the energy gap.
if we don't go to war now, we will wind up in a bigger war over a more prescious petroleum commodity later on.
Edited.
It will cost way too much money to convert the house and vehicles into something that is sustainable and does not have a impact.
They do have Geo thermal and if they can reach down far enough into the earth below my home, I might try for it.
But it appears very reasonable to many that this Abraham was a Chaldæan or a Persian, from whom the Jews afterwards boasted of having descended, as the Franks did of their descent from Hector, and the Britons from Tubal. It cannot be denied that the Jewish nation were a very modern horde; that they did not establish themselves on the borders of Phœnicia until a very late period; that they were surrounded by ancient states, whose language they adopted, receiving from them even the name of Israel, which is Chaldæan, from the testimony of the Jew Flavius Josephus himself. We know that they took the names of the angels from the Babylonians, and that they called God by the names of Eloi or Eloa, Adonaï, Jehovah or Hiao, after the Phœnicians. It is probable that they knew the name of Abraham or Ibrahim only through the Babylonians; for the ancient religion of all the countries from the Euphrates to the Oxus was called Kish Ibrahim or Milat Ibrahim. This is confirmed by all the researches made on the spot by the learned Hyde.
The Jews, then, treat their history and ancient fables as their clothesmen treat their old coats—they turn them and sell them for new at as high a price as possible. It is a singular instance of human stupidity that we have so long considered the Jews as a nation which taught all others, while their historian Josephus himself confesses the contrary.
It is difficult to penetrate the shades of antiquity; but it is evident that all the kingdoms of Asia were in a very flourishing state before the wandering horde of Arabs, called Jews, had a small spot of earth which they called their own—when they had neither a town, nor laws, nor even a fixed religion. When, therefore, we see an ancient rite or an ancient opinion established in Egypt or Asia, and also among the Jews, it is very natural to suppose that this small, newly formed, ignorant, stupid people copied, as well as they were able, the ancient, flourishing, and industrious nation.
The Dictionnaire philosophique - Voltaire, 1764
Well, that was insulting. I reckon the good sir Voltaire can write a play, but struggles at history.
Perhaps, perhaps not. Depends on which versions of History you chose to read, and think to be closest to the truth. As he himself says, It is difficult to penetrate the shades of antiquity, but he does back up what he says with references.
He seems to draw heavily from Josephus. I'll check his histories shortly and see if the reference is accurate.
I have studied that period of history in great detail and fully support much of what you have set out. You should also look into the Hyksos Kings, that were driven out of Egypt back into Canaan, for another step in the origins of the israelites and their "twelve tribes" nonsense.
History 101. The god of the Jews is a tri-une God - a trinity. Three distinct persons, all co-equal. Now who else in history has believed in there being only one god, and him being a trinity (besides the christians)? Hmm, the ancient chinese. That's all.
Voltaire was ignorant.
Look, it may have gone quiet or faded from memory, but the fact is, Iran already has two nukes acquired externally. I had a good Iranian friend who was in the Iranian military...his brother is still there.
The NWO knows Iran has nukes. The reality is that Iran and the NWO are two sides on the same coin. The US/MI6 still has its pawns in Iran...I think their president is one of them. Israel/US may strike, or there could be another 9/11, or multiple 9/11`s. However, I think the plan is for Iran to retaliate and try to hit Israel with these two nukes. The plan is to strike back before their military systems become degraded.
This Iranian attack will only be a partial success, but it will put Iran and the wider Musim would in the same construct that Germany finds her self in today....guilt ridden and occupied.
I remember the CIA leaks about these two Iranian nukes, the ones that Porter Goss got so cross about.
Because these nukes will be used straight away, the gulf straight won`t have time to closed and Iran won`t be able to close them, because Iran will get his VERY HARD!!
If you want to know when the initial NWO attack starts, watch for a quiet window in gulf shipping...the NWO does not want a single ship to be sunk in the narrow guld channel.
I think there are a number of reasons for the supposed delay. The main one being timed with the US economy/elections. The other, is the ability to design a micro nuke tipped bunker busting bomb that can get into the Iranian nuclear facilities...about 100ft of rock and concrete and then self seal.
Israel will become the new NWO sacrifice. It appears the US is preparing for a MASSIVE multi theater global war...much bigger than Europe, North Africa, Asian and Pacific in the WW2 construct.
Like last time, all the big players are complicit...so expect pandemics with massive population reductions. In Europe and the US, I expect food shortages to be the principle method of public control. Certain sections of society will become very weak and die of relatively mild man made viruses.
Did you type this with a straight face?
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