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Guest Post: Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think
By my analysis, we are not yet on the final path to recovery, and
there are one or more financial 'breaks' coming in the future.
Underlying structural weaknesses have not been resolved, and the
kick-the-can-down-the-road plan is going to encounter a hard wall in the
not-too-distant future. When the next moment of discontinuity finally
arrives, events will unfold much more rapidly than most people expect.
My work centers on figuring out which macro trends are in play and
then helping people to adjust accordingly. Based on trends in fiscal
and monetary policy, I began advising accumulation of gold and silver in
2003 and 2004. I shorted homebuilder stocks beginning in 2006 and
ending in 2008. These were not ‘great' calls; they were simply spotting
trends in play, one beginning and one certain to end, and then taking
appropriate actions based on those trends.
We happen to live in a non-linear world; a core concept of the Crash Course.
But far too many people expect events to unfold in a more or less
orderly manner, with plenty of time to adjust along the way. In other
words, linearly. The world does not always cooperate, and my concern
rests on the observation that we still face the convergence of multiple
trends, each of which alone has the power to permanently transform our economic landscape and standards of living.
Three such trends (out of the many I track) that will shape our immediate future are:
- Peak Oil
- Sovereign insolvency
- Currency debasement
Individually, these worry me quite a bit; collectively, they have my full attention.
History suggests that instead of a nice smooth line heading either up
or down, markets have a pronounced habit of jolting rather suddenly
into a new orbit, either higher or lower. Social moods are steady for
long periods, and then they shift. This is what we should train
ourselves to expect.
No smooth lines between points A and B; instead, long periods of
quiet, followed by short bursts of reformation and volatility. Periods
of market equilibrium, followed by Minsky moments.
In the language of the evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, we
live in a system governed by the rules of "punctuated equilibrium."
Complex Systems
Our economy is a complex system. The key feature of such systems is
that they are inherently unpredictable with respect to the timing and
severity of specific events. For the uninitiated, they can look
enormously fragile and prone to flying apart at any minute; for the
seasoned observer, there is an appreciation that the immense inertia of
the economic system will almost always delay and dampen the eventual
adjustments.
Like everybody else, I have no idea exactly what’s going to happen, or precisely when. Anybody who says they do know
should be greeted with a furrowed brow and a frown of suspicion. As
my long-time readers know, I prefer to assess the risks and then take
steps to mitigate those risks based on likelihood and impact.
Which means that although we cannot predict the size (exactly how much) or the timing (precisely when) of economic shifts or world-changing events, we can certainly understand the risks and the dimensions of what
might happen. Just as we cannot predict when an avalanche will
release from steep slope, or even where or how big it will be, we can
readily predict that constant snowfall coupled with the right
temperature conditions will lead to an avalanche sooner or later, and
more likely in this gully than that one. Given certain conditions, we
might expect one that is larger or smaller than normal. Although we
don't know exactly when or how much, we do know that when snow
accumulates, so do the risks of more frequent and/or larger avalanches.
Such is the nature of complex systems. While inherently
unpredictable, they can still be described. The most important
description of any complex system is that it owes its order and
complexity to the constant flow of energy through it. Complex systems
require inputs. This is one way in which we can understand them.
Given this view, one easy "prediction" is that an economy without
increasing energy flows running through it will stagnate. To take this
further, an economy that is being starved of energy becomes simpler in
the process -- meaning fewer jobs, less items produced, and a reduced
capacity to support extraneous functions.
Accepting "What Is"
The most important part of this story is getting our minds to accept
reality without our passionate beliefs interfering. By ‘beliefs’ I
mean statements like these:
- “Things always get better and are never as bad as they seem.”
- “If Peak Oil were ‘real,’ I would be hearing about it from my trusted sources.”
- “Dwelling on the negative is self-fulfilling.”
While each of these things might be true, they also might be false
and therefore misleading, especially during periods of transition. Our
job is to remain as dispassionate and logical as possible.
Let's now examine more closely the three main events that are
converging -- Peak Oil, sovereign insolvency, and currency debasement --
using as much logic as we can muster.
Peak Oil
Peak Oil is now a matter of open inquiry and debate at the highest
levels of industry and government. Recent reports by Lloyd's of London,
the US Department of Defense, the UK industry taskforce on Peak Oil,
Honda, and the German military are evidence of this. But when I say
“debate,” I am not referring to disagreement over whether or not Peak
Oil is real, only when it will finally arrive. The emerging consensus
is that oil demand will outstrip supplies “soon,” within the next five
years and maybe as soon as two. So the correct questions are no longer,
"Is Peak Oil real?" and "Are governments aware?” but instead, "When
will demand outstrip supply?" and “What implications does this have for
me?”
It doesn't really matter when the actual peak arrives; we can leave
that to the ivory-tower types and those with a bent for analytical
precision. What matters is when we hit “peak exports.” My expectation
is that once it becomes fashionable among nation-states to finally
admit that Peak Oil is real and here to stay, one or more exporters
will withhold some or all of their product "for future generations" or
some other rationale (such as, "get a higher price"), which will rather
suddenly create a price spiral the likes of which we have not yet
seen.
What matters is an equal mixture of actual oil availability and
market perception. As soon as the scarcity meme gets going, things will
change very rapidly.
In short, it is time to accept that Peak Oil is real - and plan accordingly.
Sovereign Insolvency
Once we accept the imminent arrival of Peak Oil, then the issue of
sovereign insolvency jumps into the limelight. Why? Because the hopes
and dreams of the architects of the financial rescue entirely rest upon
the assumption that economic growth will resume. Without additional
supplies of oil, such growth will not be possible; in fact, we’ll be
doing really, really well if we can prevent the economy from
backsliding.
Virtually every single OECD country, due to outlandish pension and
entitlement programs, has total debt and liability loads that Arnaud Mares (of Morgan Stanley) pointed out
have resulted in a negative net worth for the governments of Germany,
France, Portugal, the US, the UK, Spain, Ireland, and Greece. And not
by just a little bit, but exceptionally so, ranging from more than 450%
of GDP in the case of Germany on the 'low' end to well over 1,500% of
GDP for Greece.
Such shortfalls cannot possibly be funded out of anything other than a
very, very bright economic future. Something on the order of
Industrial Age 2.0, fueled by some amazing new source of wealth.
Logically, how likely is that? Even if we could magically remove the
overhang of debt, what new technologies are on the horizon that could
offer the prospect of a brand new economic revival of this magnitude?
None that I am aware of.
In the US, the largest capital market and borrower, even the most
optimistic budget estimates foresee another decade of crushing deficits
that will grow the official deficit by some $9 trillion and the real
(i.e., “accrual” or “unofficial”) deficit by perhaps another $20 to $30
trillion, once we account for growth in liabilities. This is, without
question, an unsustainable trend.
It’s time to admit the obvious: Debts of these sorts cannot be
serviced, now or in the future. Expanding them further with fingers
firmly crossed in hopes of an enormous economic boom that will bail out
the system is a fool’s game. It is little different than doubling down
after receiving a bad hand in poker.
The unpleasant implication of various governments going deeper into
debt is that a string of sovereign defaults lies in the future. Due to
their interconnected borrowings and lendings, one may topple the next
like dominoes.
However, it is when we consider the impact of the widespread
realization of Peak Oil on the story of growth that the whole idea of
sovereign insolvency really assumes a much higher level of probability.
More on that later.
For now we should accept that there's almost no chance of growing out
from under these mountains of debts and other obligations. We must
move our attention to the shape, timing, and the severity of the
aftermath of the economic wreckage that will result from a series of
sovereign defaults.
Currency Wars
We could trot out a lot of charts here, examine much of history, and
make a very solid case that once a country breaches the 300%
debt/liability to GDP ratio, there's no recovery, only a future
containing some form of default (printing or outright).
In a recent post to my enrolled members, I wrote:
The currency wars have begun, and the implications to world stability
and wealth could not be more profound. Fortunately, all of my
long-time enrolled members are prepared for this outcome, which we've
been predicting here for some time.When pressed, the most predictable decision in all of history is to
print, print, print. So I can't take credit for a 'prediction' that
was just slightly bolder than 'predicting' which way a dropped anvil
will travel; down or up?The only problem is, widespread currency debasements will further
destabilize an already rickety global financial system where tens of
trillions of fiat dollars flow daily on the currency exchanges.
You can be nearly certain that every single country is seeking a path
to a weaker relative currency. The problem is obvious: Everybody
cannot simultaneously have a weaker currency. Nor can everybody have a
positive trade balance.
If a country or government cannot grow its way out from under its
obligations, then printing (a.k.a. currency debasement) takes on
additional allure. It is the "easy way out" and has lots of political
support in the home country. Besides the fact that it has already
started, we should consider a global program of currency debasement to
be a guaranteed feature of our economic future.
Conclusion (to Part I)
Three unsustainable trends or events have been identified here. They
are not independent, but they are interlocked to a very high degree.
At present I can find no support for the idea that the economy can
expand like it has in the past without increasing energy flows,
especially oil. All of the indications point to Peak Oil, or at least
"peak exports," happening within five years.
At that point, it will become widely recognized that most sovereign
debts and liabilities will not be able to be serviced by the miracle of
economic growth. Pressures to ease the pain of the resulting financial
turmoil and economic stagnation will grow, and currency debasement
will prove to be the preferred policy tool of choice.
Instead of unfolding in a nice, linear, straightforward manner, these
colliding events will happen quite rapidly and chaotically.
By mentally accepting that this proposition is not only possible, but
probable, we are free to make different choices and take actions that
can preserve and protect our wealth and mitigate our risks.
What changes in our actions and investment stances are prudent if we
assume that Peak Oil, sovereign insolvency, and currency debasement are
'locks' for the future?
I explore these questions in greater depth in Part II of this report (enrollment required)
»
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My choice, I am outa here..... And, you should go with me.....:)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-2IZJe6hOs&feature=related
Seems like a lot of people trying to call a top.
What, no global warming?
Speaking of unravelling, this situation happened yesterday:
a) on a youtube video (sgtbull07) it was rumoured that Gold de Royale, an Australian Bullion supplier, had sent an email to customers stating that they were no longer able to buy bullion from the Austrian Mint, Heraeus, and the Rand Refinery
b) Gold de Royale sent an email today to the blogger stating that the were still selling to retail clients, but the email was supposed to only go to corporate clients who buyed in bulk
So I guess its no big deal, only those who would like to buy a bunch of bullion are out of luck.
http://agaupm.com/gold-de-royale-mistake-refiners-deliver/#translate
That is huge news !
They are poo poo'ing the email mistake to "regular" investors and not large institutionals.
thanks
gneiss
My pleasure. If you like that check this out:
Idaho to distribute silver medallions and accept them for tax payments.
http://www.infowars.com/silver-shines-as-an-economic-solution/
But it didn't pass yet?
It was also up for a vote last year but Phil Hart says he believes this year it will pass.
It passed 51-14 in the Idaho house, but died in the Idaho senate, however, two of the senators that blocked it have already lost in the primaries, and it is expected to be re-introduced.
No, it did not pass. The sponsor Phil Hart is getting a lot of heat (from the IRS). There is a good interview on youtube of him.
Can I haz buyed in bulk still?
DO IT !!
Gold, indeed. I just posted this re Gold-oil-SArabia-USD/ReserveCurrency:
Very early in my lifetime, there was no official Reserve Currency.
The plan to establish such using the USD was a deliberate act, but the "why" is not necessary to know in order to understand the present scene.
Consider: The fact that all currencies have this relationship with the USD means the USD host can cause enormous global effects.
A corrollary, seldom mentioned on ZH, is that liquid petroleum [oil] also has such power to influence globally...and it existed earlier than a Reserve Currency.
Both oil and USD/ResCur are certainly connected. How they are linked is arguable, but linked they are.
Oil can be controlled via source or distribution. In short, there exist only 4 giant distributors, 2 Anglo and 2 American [BP,Shell,ExxMob,Chevron]...and only 1 giant source [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, also known as the swing-producer.].
It is not a great leap to postulate that KSA must be linked to oil and USD/ResCur. While that fact can be surmised, explaining how is arguable.
Thus, to understand global financial activities, I submit the linkage of all 3 must be considered...USD/ResCur, oil, KSA.
[Gold is a 4th linkage I conveniently omit.]
Surely Ben,Larry,Tim,Lloyd,Jamie et al know this; and a lot more.
Are they operating off a game plan that rhymes with all 3 ?
Note that any, yes any, actions and issues that impinge on KSA are as vital as the other 2.
The enormous collection of ships-of-the-line that so obviously menace Iran...are equally poised to control any unfavorable mood swings within KSA that will efffect the established linkages. Coinkydink?
No, no global warming we have peak oil now.. The earth created vegetation for 40-50 million years during its last "global warming" episode turned that to oil if that is your theory and we have burned it all in 80 years, lol... Some times we believe conspiracy and sometimes we are the conspiracy. This time the end of oil is here... Pretty soon the end of carbon, then oxygen, then who knows...
I'm not saying I believe in peak oil, but much of its claim lies in the fact that the "easy" oil is what is coming to an end. The amount of energy needed to get a barrel of oil is increasing as the oil that is left is more difficult to reach or extract.
if you don't actually understand what peak oil is, might wanna stfu about it.
My comment reflects I have read and understand what it is.. It's not fucking rocket science fucktard..
What's the matter, bored of your video games? Thumbs hurting again? Dickhead
Why don't you use a bit of common sense juvi.. The more energy it takes to get it, the less net energy is gotten..
No, your comments reflect that you are utterly ignorant of what Peak oil is.
Peak is merely a net production maxima. It holds irrespective of the EROI of the base resource.
EROI decline is a different issue than Peak, however the two are related. Now, go back to jacking off to porn or something, and STFU.
That production is directly proportional to how easily is it pumped. Easy oil, much production.. Should I put it in an equation for you? I promise not to use Greek symbols.. Only X and Y.
Nice try.. you're still a fucktard.. And not a very smart one.. I'm surprised you figured out the banking scheme.. That actually gives me hope for all retards like you. kudos
Look bud, if you want to write in Greek, go the fuck for it.
You already shot your shit all outta the water with the initial disclaimer that you are not saying that you believe in peak oil.
Ok, how in the HELL do you expect me to take anything you say about oil seriously after you said that?
Then, you try to bargain your way into the thing by talking about cheap oil and EROI and I told you to STFU. The reason I told you to STFU is because there are people around here even stupider than you and you might mislead them.
I'm sorry that your ignorance has been singularly tolerated by the people around you your whole life and that having someone tell you to STFU seems offensive. It was good and well-meaning advice and you should heed it.
Yeah, that's right. I junked you for being an asshat in the way you called bullshit. There is a better way to state your case. Your initial personal attack wreaks of not knowing WTF you are talking about. Even if you do, you need to work very hard on your fucking presentation....asshat.
I get tired of your nasty attitude and utter lack of facts accompanied by utter conviction in your OPINIONS..
Some never get tired of Trav7. Count me among those.
We live in a world thats run by the biggest fucking liars in the universe. No one has the time and energy to do due dilligence on a shitstorm of never ending lies and manipulation. Infiltrating with whistleblowers just isn't enough information flow.
Well said and very true!
I never get tired of Tav's content, but his style would make an interesting teacher. Can anyone spell the word education? Yes Johnny? No, you got three letters wrong. If you don't know the word then STFU and go back to second grade you ignorant prick. As others have said, they've come here to learn. Learning requires questions and by the defintion of education, it requires ignorant questions and ignorant statements. Not that I think Max's comment was ignorant. Anyone who's spent more than five minutes researching peak oil has learned that EROI / EROEI is a major factor. Blasting someone for including that in part of the definition is more semantics than science. Look, most of us are on this site because we (1) are looking for accurate information because (2) we're scared, and (3) we're trying to figure out a few survival options. Trolls aside, each of us brings something unique to the table. Over the last year I have learned as much from the rest of you as I have from Tyler. Sarcasm is one thing, but the least I can do is show some respect
I would honestly prefer that people stop mingling EROI and Production Peak as if they are fungible. They aren't.
EROI can be tweaked as tarsands prove, by translating one form of energy for another.
This permits the cornucopians to babble about tarsands and the 250Gbbl they have in reserves and pretend that this will save us.
"Easy" oil pumps itself. Secondary and tertiary extraction phases require the input of energy. So EROI changes materially throughout the lifespan of just one well.
For talking about why RESERVES will not PRODUCE at equivalent rates, EROI is highly material. For mere discussion of what an Oil Peak is, there is no point whatsoever in bringing EROI up.
What is CRITICALLY important is that EVERYBODY understand what Peak Oil IS and what it is not.
I've been having this argument now for 7 years and have heard too many times this notion of peak "cheap" oil, where, oh, there won't be a production decline, it will just COST more, but we'll have all the oil we want. That is where "peak cheap oil" leads people to think. I've long since lost my patience with people who can't get past the "bargaining" phase of dealing with this crisis. Those few who got past sheer denial get to bargaining and mostly stay stuck there.
EROI leads people to "cheap oil" bargaining and thinking. They figure it will just eat more of their income but the SUV will be able to be filled and more SUVs by more people in the future, albeit at a higher price. That's utter and complete bullshit.
Let those who understand Peak discuss EROI amongst themselves. There is no point in entertaining the opinions of ignorants. My style is borne out of that and the fact that this is the internet and talk is very cheap here.
This forum is a classic example of the Downing Effect; those who are knowledgeable about the Peak theory can IMMEDIATELY spot those others who are and also those who are totally ignorant. Those who do not understand it seem to believe that everyone's opinion is equal. They figure that if it were true, then they themselves would believe it because, well, golly, they are smart people. Wrong.
I'm not a teacher here to try to handhold mediocre students to excellence; I recognize after 7 years of this discussion that such a thing was a pipedream. I am here more like how a coach would talk to other experts. I've no time to explain the nuances or to train noobs. You're supposed to show up to practice knowing the playbook, then we can rationally discuss the issues. You'll note that I am eminently polite to the educated and the knowledgeable. A good sign that one is ignorant is if I am rude to you.
Yep, I read Ruppert's Crossing the Rubicon about 6 years ago. I chose not to be a self appointed expert/ fanatic. Trav777 is do doubt a narcissist, but he is our narcissist.
Overall, individuals high in narcissism displayed amplified responses to social comparison information, experiencing greater positive affect from downward comparisons and greater hostile affect from upward
But is he wrong?
Peak oil is right but his condescending manner is wrong.
There are large gas deposits such as the Barnett shale and hydrogen fuel cell technologies soon to be developed, but imho wind and solar power are hoaxes.
You and I agree on everything except the narcissist thing. It is possible but I know of at least one other explanation. There is a saying, the tougher the outer presentation of self, the more hurt the inner self. In other words, the need to come off tough can be shielding someone who feels they have a whole lot to protect. It grates, but I can also have compassion for it. Saying this will piss him off if I am right, because that is how it works.
good point.
It would have been helpful for me, as well as others I'm sure, had you explained that in the first place. Being frothing-at-the-mouth rude was not appropriate. I get very tired explaining why "you can't eat gold" is a useless and futile "reason" not to own gold, but I don't trash people and call them awful names just because they are STUPID! I'd love to let go on them but I refrain (well, most of the time anyhow). If someone comes to ZH and trolls to the opposite view just for stirring up the mob, then I have no sympathy (need I mention Johnny Bravo?), then mercy is not spared. You probably get very irritated (obviously) that someone does not follow your thinking. That's fine. If you can't be nice then just pass on commenting. I think you have some brilliant thinking behind your ideas, but they don't emerge amongst the vitriol. Have a nice glass of warm milk, prepare some comments, including some links to pertinent data, that can be posted repeatedly for those who need "education", and let it go. Just my opinion on the matter.
A much better explanation. Too bad we had to waste 10 posts to get to civil discourse. My read is that Max never mis-construed EROI to mean endless supplies of oil at a higher cost, but as an indicator of our proximity to peak oil.
You are right, in that "experts" seem to be coming out of the woodworks. With 6 Bln people on this rock there will be an endless supply...get use to it sunshine.
Better to use the opportunity to set the record straight, rather than further entrench people in their K00l-Aid.
Agree, I don't think Max or most folks think EROEI means endless supply or production peak. Ironically, I think most folks take it to mean that it will all hit the fan a lot faster than the geologic numbers. As many others have pointed out, there are no real alternatives except for a radical change in the way we live.
"I'm not a teacher here to try to handhold mediocre students to excellence; I recognize after 7 years of this discussion that such a thing was a pipedream. I am here more like how a coach would talk to other experts. I've no time to explain the nuances or to train noobs."
Some people believe that the best solutions or better yet, the best coping mechanisms for the biggest problem we have ever faced needs to be first and foremost political. Some think the powers that be have not and will not play this problem straight. Many think part of the reason there are so many "noobs" on this issue is that this information has and continues to be manipulated by the same people for the same reasons. Some think that educating the public no matter what the barriers is a key part of a strategy to finally obtain a political critical mass to do something.
I learn a lot from everyone but I really miss ZeroHead and D.O.D. They had great comments. Miss project mayhem too.
(Sigh...) Where are those stalwarts?
I really miss the ZeroHead too. I stay in touch with a few old timers that no longer post and the #1 reason you don't see them is that the junking is out of control. There are other reasons--they have moved on, too much confirmation bias, depression--but ZH has changed so much in the last year that the comments have become a clusterfuck. It used to be fun and quite a bit of humor to break it all up. DH and I could make up ridiculously crude phone calls between Rahm and Barry and Christina Romer and most people enjoyed the humor. All of that would be flagged as junk now.
I exclude many from this group, Rocky, but I wince when I see Bitchez anything at the top of a post. It's like those morons who post "First" in comment sections on Yahoo.
As for Project Mayhem, I am willing to speculate that he was one of the Tylers based on nothing more than a hunch.
Glad to see you Howard. I admit to having fun with the bitchez thing, but I try to use it infrequently, when I want to convey some enthusiasm.
Like this:
Old Timerz, like gold, never lose value. So post, Bitchez.
Eh, lacks poetry, but I like it. ;-)
Edit: I did Rahm, running for mayor, in Honor of Deadhead, on the Rahm thread.
oops......miss zerohead too.Alle alle auch sind frei ZeroHead!
Always good to see you, MsCreant. You have been very active in this thread and I am so glad to see that.
I love Chris Martenson and he certainly struck a nerve here since this is the thread of the weekend. I have zip to offer on an intelligent level here since I am swarmed with family stuff. Old Timers Bitchez....LMAO.
As for DH, I should have contacted him on Thursday night to do a riff. But he really is just watching now and creating a new life. He's one great human being that is sorely missed. But he was U/E for a very long time (I think it was 2 years) and once both he and his wife were gainfully employed in April--not in his field but optimistic about the future--he started refocusing on his wonderful family.
Anyone that has been here since the summer of 09 (DH was here from spring 09 on the original blog) knows that daily reading is important. But it is also important to not focus too much on the fear and to remember that NO ONE knows how this mess is going to go down. Period. It's all conjecture. From Europe. Peak Oil, Japan, Bernanke, Flash Crashes, the deflation/hyperinflation debate, et al...it's hurry up and wait.
"There are other reasons--they have moved on, too much confirmation bias, depression--but ZH has changed so much in the last year that the comments have become a clusterfuck. It used to be fun and quite a bit of humor to break it all up."
Well there was more time back then. Shit's getting real now. There's one pathway to understanding everything. Fight something, cooperate with something, ignore something. Until you try all those pathways you do not know exactly what you are dealing with.
It's perverse but I kind of like that leo and robo are under fire. Because it's really highlighting just exactly how polarazied and at odds things will become. The fears are becoming real and more palpable. I pick up alot of fear from the paper bugs that gold bugs are going to own them and indenture servant them. I even push those buttons like I did with Orly. It really highlights the all or nothing systems we keep sticking ourselves with and our chronic inability to bring anything to a good conclusion.
We should obliterate justice from our vocabulary and change it to Just Us.
true dat...
these boards have changed since I have joined, not for the better...I learned alot from the "old-timers", things I would not have been able to learn anywhere else in my blue-collar existence. Sadly the intellectual content has declined. Mostly thanks to the BITCHEZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!!!1!!!!1
that being said there is still some of the best information that can be found along with some of the worst COINTEL.
Rahm seems to have some free time before running for mayor...
Doesn't it come down to - cheap , easy oil = BIGGER PROFITS for the oil companies and traders?
Well said, Calmyourself, assuming you were writing with sarcasm on.
Apache just bt BP's oil in the ground at $18/bbl equiv, I saw. That's industry standard. Somehow, with small lifting costs, crude sells around $80/bbl. IMVHO that $60 spread will allow lots and lots of energy equivalents to be produced, along with easy advances in auto mileage and the like.
I'd also like to object to Mr. Martenson's advertisement to pay him money to find out what he thinks. Sure he's a smart guy. But we're all smart- that's why we're on this website. But off of this "Part I", which regurgitates commonplace observations, I'm sure not spending $300 for a year's subscription. Following his thinking about discontinuities, the money would be better spent 50% on deep out of the money puts, and deep out of the money calls, on almost any index or almost any stock.
Well, Karl D, you just can't stay away, can you?
BTW, you really give yourself away by the combination of your Peak Oil denial, and your incessant "puts/calls" advice. Good luck with all that in the face of hyperinflation. Yes, paper beats rock --- until paper suddenly goes up in smoke.
+1
" But we're all smart- that's why we're on this website."
Speak for yourself, many are here because we've got a lot to learn. ;)
well said, count me in that club
Amen
"we're all smart" = Downing Effect
A smart person would not say that. I have almost never told someone they are smart if they really aren't because such a thing is a lie and creates more trouble than it attempts to solve.
It's counterproductive to convince people that they are more capable than they really are. If they have a confidence problem and you are telling them the truth, then sure, but at the extreme if you told a novice they were capable to go freeclimb a cliff, you could get them killed.
I applaud your humility however; I, too, am here to learn.
There is a thousand years of coal in them USA hills. There is a process that is used to make it into diesel that the Chinese are using today. Peak oil is not anytime soon.
I hear 112 years. And then they revised down from there to something more like 72. If we start picking up usage, it will go down from there. Does not negate your point, but it is closer than a thousand years.
For my part, peak oil, if it's real, can't come soon enough. Here are the long-term positives:
unfortunately, the religion, is not judaism, but dominion
+ infinity
Yes, it turns coal into diesel, along with a ton of CO2. Not exactly what a warming planet wants.
PUHLEEZEEEE!!! Cool it with the warming nonsense already.
Our transportation does not use coal, our gird uses at most 25% coal (it takes at a min 3 years (just to build and that is pushing it) a coal fired electic plants(assuming you can purchase the equipment), home fuel, cooking etc is not coal based. To convert coal to oil will take time and lots of money. The technology is NOT mature (aka learning process, time, cost, raising capital to invest.. etc). Look at the price of oil in 2007 and 2008, look at the production numbers.... now the possibility exist that major oil market manipulation on a grand scale is occurring... or peak oil is here, and has not reached critical level at this date, due to the depressed current demand for oil (economy contraction not growth). This "economic" downward "staircase" fall has been predicted by "peck oil" guru's for some time. Many believe that the 2007-2008 bubble was pierced by the run up of oil prices, the straw that broke the camels back. Also, the argument regarding the feasibility of ethanol may apply to the conversion of coal to oil. The concept of Energy Returns on (Energy) Investment . The best web site that I have found that goes into great detail on these issues is http://www.iier.ch/.
No, no, and no.
You're wrong about everything except the Fischer-Tropsch and the Chinese.
Found this at Automatic Earth and it reinforces what I have been saying.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/story/print?guid=0A25D660-CA48-11DF-ACD...
merica on the brink of a Second Revolution Commentary: 2010 elections guarantee gridlock, anti-capitalist class warWhere ya gonna go?
All roads now lead to a burning Rome!
to the front lines of course.
This is a great article, and the initial focus on complexity is key. Behind energy, complexity is really the main driver of the economic, social, political and cultural forces we see today.
Anyone who wants to explore the intersection of our current economic predicament and complex dynamics further should check out the following pieces:
"The Limits to Complexity" - http://peakcomplexity.blogspot.com/2010/09/limits-to-complexity.html
"A Complexity Manifesto" -
http://peakcomplexity.blogspot.com/2010/09/complexity-manifesto.html
I would humbly add a fourth item to the most excellent list of the three items mentioned:
A destructive infrastructure virus, designed under the Bush administration, and disseminated with the help of Israel and the banksters.
This infrastructure virus, which may be of the cryptovirologic variety and thus mutagenic in nature, would have been dispatched via ClearForest software, by way of Deutsche Bank (and possibly the G.R.I.D.) to Siemens, and then onward and upward.
Unfortunately, only time will tell how much end damage results.
This is also an excellent time to once again mention Prof. Tainter's most brilliant short piece (only 12 pp.) titled: "Complexity, Problem Solving and Sustainable Societies"
http://dieoff.org/page134.htm
Highly recommended and appropriate to this discussion.
Story is not so good.
great report, nothing wrong about it
but, fuck him, I can give you part two at no charge
go flog your site somewhere else
oh, and thanks for the well done analysis, just the same
Yup.
I don't need to pay someone to tell me that my plane is plunging through the atmosphere.
Besides, we're all on that plane.
is this "analysis?" faster than expected? "unravel?"
If the speed of ZH's posts today are any indication, I think it's already happened!
I can hardly keep up.
(no wonder the SEC watches porn instead)
You know, it just occurred to me -- we need to find out exactly what porn the SEC guys are watching!
In fact, we need to make some, and send it to them.
How about a title like The Girls of Jekyll Island ? I want the soundtrack to include Spinal Tap singing Gimme Some Money. ( Oh wait -- I think Spinal Tap were called "the Thamesmen" back then...)
Look, it's the least we can do for these guys, since we're always so mean to them.
This is porn , DOOMER PORN , that is. ;)
pass the prozac
Never forget - these ARE the good old days.
There isn't anyone at the (nominal) helm who didn't understood from the very git-go that the only possible way out was a resumption of organic credit growth. All the fraud, lies, deceit, corruption and violation of centuries old jurisprudence were justified (at least in their minds) by national security concerns.
The power-elite have always known that there was a black whole comprised of many different elements, one of which being title insurance, related to challenges in re-securitizing the ponzi. More importantly, they knew that they had at most two years in which to blow another bubble, anywhere/any kind, in order to get the herd moving once again in a speculative fashion.
If they had succeeded, there isn't a person alive (except for chronic complainers who are never happy) who could be bothered enough to worry about any "ancient" history. Rather, the action would have shifted as everyone desperately piled on and tried to get in on ground floor of the new party happenings.
QE was never meant to actually monetize anything. It was only part of a coordinated re-flation attempt, combined with control of mass media, expert triggering of key emotional drivers (eg market optimism), appeals to authority/leadership, you name it, the whole gamut, aimed at manipulating overall general population psychology.
The two years is now up - they/we have failed. What we are seeing now is the roll-over. Events are going to start accelerating faster as we appear to be a tad late with our appointment with destiny.
I partially agree but I challenge the motives. It seems to me that the actions of the Fed have been to anoint the chosen few while Rome burns. What if they had no intention of kicking off a new bubble, but going off in another direction entirely?
This course takes us into at least a currency war and probably a hot war. Money is made in both, particularly a hot war. It's also good to change a culture and rally people around the flag in a time of trouble and change. As we stand a few years into the century of change why should we be surprised when the change is upon us? The world is changing, but it cannot change without conflict, the bigger the conflict the bigger the change. If one wanted the change why not simply help bring that conflict about and profit on every step that is taken?
To me it seems that the new society is our destiny and our feet are still shuffling along the path.
"This course takes us into at least a currency war and probably a hot war. Money is made in both, particularly a hot war."
Reality is, money isn't MADE, it's stolen. Ill-gotten gains... All wars, when broken down to the fundamentals, are over resources. What's different today is that there is an insufficient amount of resources to re-distribute to the masses to squelch their uneasiness. Also, the costs of the wars themsleves are becoming so hideously costly that they're becoming harder to pull off.
Wars could be fought far more cost effectively. The US model is one of outright theft. The graft and kickbacks boggles the mind. I know people who have done accounting work there and billions regularly just "disappear".
From the point of view of the big boys war would be perfect for this situation. To few resources of course fight. War is a great catalyst for change. Say you wanted to kill some huge amount of people why not a war? The war will kill some, but the famine and plague that usually goes along with it will kill far more. If the concern is to many people and not enough resources then we are assured of a war. People most of the time will not take a reduction of their standard of living lightly. Now should their standard of living be reduced enough to being killing them off, a revolt. However if a war is on patriotic fervor and armed men help keep rebels in line. Hell if one wanted to kill a a lot of people selective nuclear strikes on mega cities would do just that, but simply cutting them off form imports them would be nearly as effective and less harmful on the environment. If you were looking at the resource map and you were one of the big boys, what would you be thinking?
biowarfare.
just ask Mr. Gates. . . it's what all the philanthropists are thinking this season.
Good answer...good answer...I like the way you think. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xfi4s8cjLFI
Now if Cheney was telling the truth they have them race specific too. After all I'm sure they wouldn't want the wrong sort into the Brave New World. And we do have such loving people working on vaccines and the overpopulation problem. Though for the life of me I can't figure out how making people live longer lives reduces population...it's almost like they have conflicting goals.
nationstates have long history with biological "testing" on their minions, as well as using toxins in warfare. . .
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biowarfare
wiki's article is rather interesting, goes back to the flinging of plague-ridden corpses over castle walls, and various other novel ways to infect populations extra-to-the-plot. . . (gifting blankets, etc.)
lived in scotland years ago, out walking the west coast with a local friend and he pointed out Gruinard Island, quarantined because of anthrax tests decades previous. . . I became fascinated with how gov'ts intentionally poison their loyal taxpayers, and my interests have led to many fascinating stories. . .
example: "downwinders" in Utah, intentionally targeted with radioactive fallout in Nevada testings - they reckoned the Mormons wouldn't kick up much fuss about their children being born with defects, as they were "special gifts from god" (true story).
of course, things are much more "sophisticated" now that nanotechnology has entered awareness. . . I could go on, but I'll spare you all. . . just know the military/industrial complex is, shall we say, not on your side, hm.
edit: for a good example of how the NIH sees no problems with using humans as test subjects, without consent, try this:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/feedarticle/9293095
the article states:
unless, of course, it's classified "Top Secret" - a threat to the nation's security. . .
Of course a good ole manufactured pandemic flu would take care of those pesky social security and medicare liabilities. Baby boomers = problem, killer flu = solution. Last year's swine, bird, Mexican, etc... H1N1 flu was just a dry run. Look for the real thing sometime soon. Elites have no problem thinning the heard when needed.
Funny that Bill and Warren and the rest of the pederasts....er...philanthropists are in China for a big confab. China is so down with the poor thing. Biocorn anyone?
China is ahead of the game in the "weather wars" - controlling the weather and the skies has history, including chaff (aluminium particles released to disguise military manoeuvers, and currently used for "cloud seeding" by many nationstates).
what fascinates me is how continuous sky trails are rarely noticed as the populace is entranced with their texting toys. . . no one pays attention to the sky any more, no one looks up. . .
http://www.weatherwars.info/
as to "bill & warren" et al - one could almost surmise a global conspiracy, lol. . .
This is precisely the end-game, a repudiation of debt, because a future of contraction cannot even service today's debts.
The sooner, the better. At this point, commodity money is an answer. I know, I know, it can't GROW with the economy. But the economy is not going to be growing materially anymore.
Trav, I know you grate on different people, but at least you totally get it. And yes, you are exactly right - debt repudiation is the end game. So what is the sequence? And, for those of you playing along at home, what does the sequence mean in terms of societal impact on both local and national scales?
OK, I'll go first:
As you can see, we will ease into this process slowly, like how one gently lowers themselves into a steaming hot tub. As we get a feel for water temperature, we will become more comfortable in taking other, more extreme measures.
Now, with our (investment) analyst hats on, what do these major steps portend in terms of their impact on dependents (young, old & indigent). And, perhaps more importantly, the impact on society in general in terms of quality of life, economic growth (prospects), etc?
Playing along here, my state's welfare program has pretty website describing programs that are already not funded at all. Catholic social services are for mexicans and haitians only. period. My life long severely disabled cousin at age 59 will be dependant on the kindness of her remaining living relatives. period. Keep posting
the steaming hot tub or the frog in the slowly boiling cookpot? It's over before you realize what the hell is going on. Does the game include how the government(s) will react to the unravelling? Cause that part has me a little concerned. I love Ruppert's comment in Collapse. Two countries response to the soviets pulling out (along with their oil). Cuba - who gives out seeds and tells everyone to garden and North Korea. That's when I start thinking about Shamefull, B9K9 and Cathartes' comments. So far, we seem to favor scare tactics, control, and constitutional collapse over compost
Good comment. Anything can happen. We can debate until we are blue in the face. What is important for each of us is how we stand ready to respond. And yeah, our gov has a less than admirable track record in all this.
Yeah. The Guatemala "experiment" was one of our finest hours.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xTc0C_-uc0M&feature=player_embedded
You know Rocky, we can't fully embrace all that lies under "supporting" our lifestyles. We'd curl up and die of shame if we did. We all have to have some degree of denial running to keep it up and running. We couldn't function.
You got that right. Denial is quite underrated. It is the thing that keeps us sane in the face of facts that would otherwise drive us mad. Some of the irrational posts here just drip of denial. They have to since they are enmeshed in one or more of the established systems which support the status quo. Without an outlet to vent their frustration they would be screwed psychologically as well as socially and economically. Still, I wish they'd vent elsewhere. But there may be no richer source of fact-based commentary than right here on the ole ZH.
I heartily agree. . . while I may poke at certain corners of the fabric here, it is still rich with perspectives and information that I value, and it has been a value-able resource.
yesterday kayl posted some information that has turned up here a few times in the past month or so, and I've been looking into it. . .(appreciated kayl!)
http://www.cyberclass.net/strawman.htm
this is one source that has the information in understandable verbiage. . . if you don't like it, put "straw man" into your fave search engine, or see what Cornell has to say:
http://www.law.cornell.edu/ucc/ucc.table.html
I've danced around this topic for a while, but as the concept deepens, everything else makes more sense, for me at least.
also, I'd like to thank you Rocky for making the case for precious metals. . .and to all the others who replied to JBravo's trolling - feel free to laugh, but the repeated explanations overcame my resistance to "money" when the "store of the value of my work / time" really sunk in. . . that and the Fight Club mentality of taking the side against those who print the worthless paper. . .
as Cheeky Bastard's post a few days ago said
thanks to everyone here who truly cares.
Be careful delving into this (strawman) topic Cath A. Your "localized" ads from various websites may change from your surrounding zip code to a zip nearest your friendly Homeland Security provider.
If you're still game and haven't found this yet---http://forum.worldfreemansociety.org/viewtopic.php?f=49&t=330
Me I'm just in it for the animals. It's almost like taking drugs.
So the turkey vulture says to the racoon....
Bestiality ain't a bad thing...
Necrobestiality, now that's a whole nother thing.
Give 'em a little pat on the head and send them on their way when you're done.
Food? As petrochem contraction makes food less available, a massive dieoff in populations that get surplus food. That means Africa. If I see one more feel-good story on how we're feeding Africans who cannot or will not feed themselves, I'm gonna puke. There is no nobility in creating a population dieoff; it's like feeding stray cats, eventually, you go from a couple to a couple hundred and all hell breaks loose. There's no notion of sustainability in anything that anyone does these days.
Housing? Got no real problem there, except that exurban sprawl living is untenable.
Medicine? Hell, we can see where that is going. Throw in a Helium Peak in 2002 and you have a recipe for high-end diagnostics going even higher-end.
Security? The government gets the rationed gas. Police state or at least an attempt at one.
Education? Already being stewarded for the elites.
Justice? ROTFL. See "Argentina"
External security? Peak Oil makes global, expeditionary war impossible. That's the one silver lining. WW3 will be mercifully short and everyone will have to disengage and power down.
The biggest shock I see coming is in self-obsessed western populations. It's going to be one hell of an adjustment to trifling concerns about "racism" and other stupid social wedge issues to basics such as how often is the power on or whether the car can be tanked up.
The worst reaction people can have is to up the birth rate into the face of this. We need a dramatic drawdown both in per capita consumption as well as aggregate population. And this process should NOT be egalitarian in any way. We either take control of Bartlett's righthand side or we face the prospect that nature WILL do it for us and we will not like the outcome.
The biggest obstacle I see is a complete lack of intelligence and rational thought among people with a vote. I see this EVERYWHERE I am, in the meetings I attend at work, in society at large. When we discuss things I have no knowledge of, I state that I am agnostic and I defer to others. On the flipside, when others face their ignorance on a topic, they throw far MORE than their .02 worth in to attempt to conceal their incompetence.
Social Darwinism will make a small come back.. But again your elitist tone sounds you believe only you should "be allowed" have kids; you have it all figured out. Ever think maybe others think about the things you wear on your sleeve, but want to discuss the business designated for the meeting? Maybe they all think you are an fixated, asshole who should not have kids??
Just returning some comments you too often bestow on any commentor with whom you disagree.
Kill the messenger- if he is an asshole.
http://s599.photobucket.com/albums/tt79/englishmuse/?action=view¤t=ScarJo_popcorn.gif
Oooh! Scarlett. Nice kernels.
scarcity is a myth...unless you believe it
http://vimeo.com/7658282
Agreed, the pull toward event horizon will accelerate and all of us, me included will be amazed at the lack of finality of the trigger being pulled as we swirl about the rim. Again, the psychological need to keep this system going at the expense of virtually anything and everyone will become evident to us all.
They (call them what you will: tbtf, the fed, you and me) will feed this sytem our savings, our blood, our goodwill and will lend our psychological goodwill all the way to the crash. Why, because it is what we know and what we are comfortable with and people will die for what they are comfortable with..
naked putz on CFTC going down on whos knows.
Wait , i said that wrong..
I like what you said, that is, assuming we know the intent of the "experiment".
Peak Prozac!
Shitty ism market up. Figurres. Ireland no mo bond sales, market up.
Bac mortgage delay in fraud foreclosures, closes up.
Fuck em hard.
avatar of the month
I think it's trav777 that pointed me to this (hat tip). The one thing lots of people leave out of their SHTF conclusion is (IMHO) one of the most relevant:
Fractional Reserve Fiat Banking is fundamentally flawed.
All money gets created as loans by banks. Banks loan the principal, but not the interest. Therefore, not enough money exists in the system to pay both principal and interest. Interest can only be paid with the borrowings of new borrowers. Therefore, fractional reserve banking requires loan growth to survive, and exponential growth at that. And exponential curves cannot grow to infinity. At the end (see the loan growth curves of the past 15 years) loan growth goes parabolic.
And then it stops, turns, and declines. Consequently, there is no longer enough money being created to cover all of the principal and interest required for debt service.
A deflationary collapse of fractional reserve banking is the pre-determined and logical conclusion of the design of the system. Not to get all Matrix on people, but the error is a function of the system, has happened before, and will happen again. It is the core of the instability of the system and why collapse is pre-determine.
All money certainly doesn't get created by banks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jubilee_%28Biblical%29
http://www.jubileeprosperity.com/
All money gets created as loans by banks.
Most money get created as loans by banks, 90-95% and yes.
This is a must read by Vladimir Z Nuri
Fractional Reserve banking as Economic Parastism
http://129.3.20.41/eps/mac/papers/0203/0203005.pdf
and yes, I beleive the creators of the Fed were well aware of this.
debtmoney is inarguably parasitism. That is why central banking was invented in the 1690s with the charter of the BOE.
Aggregate indebtedness on account of just having money to use in an economy is what debtmoney means. Eventually, default is mathematically inevitable. At that point, ALL outstanding money is a liability (it always was) to its issuer and they can come collect on the loans. In real assets.
Except when they can't:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C-DrHEB7trY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgU_EpuwvjI&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TsO6wkdzhc&feature=related
That's the flaw in the entire system, it's a Friken PONZI SCHEME, no more no less.
Sooner of later, someone has to lose.
This was mentioned by Mako and he said the same thing would happen even with gold as money, as long as there was interest charged, and the people here told him to go to hell.
*some people.
glad to be of help, but please be clear that this is not THE system. There are other systems which have worked better and for longer than debt-based money.
This is just our system, the Fed/BOE system. And, during an age of growth fed by an energy supply wave, nobody cared enough to notice the VAST riches accrued by fucking bankers. During the collapse phase is when people will start to notice.
Excellent comment. They'll start to notice and they'll get angry
Peak oil (or more exactly the finitude of oil) was accepted from the start.
How? Because it was preceded with the omen of peak coal. The same story happened one century ago with coal. It was adverted because of the introduction of oil as a superior energy source.
Yet, this did not prevent people who drew conclusions from the finited nature of coal to draw the same conclusions for oil.
Since that moment, oil interests introduced oil as plentiful. The trend would end in the 1960s when the rate of discovery of new oil fields suddenly plummeted, no longer allowing to cover up with newly pushed in oil extraction perspectives. With the chain of events, OPEC, the credit based economy...
People are simply now assessing how to handle something that was known to happen from the start.
Of course, TPTB may be playing peak oil as yet another scam where conventional wisdom dictates that oil is biotic, all in order to gain yet another chokehold over the population.
Meanwhile Russia, going by the abiotic theory of oil is pumping oil from far deeper than any biological processes have been submerged due to plate techtonics, becoming the world's #2 producer.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Gold#Origins_of_petroleum
re: peak oil
So...why not bridge shortages by using shale?
And why not switch a huge gob of usage to electricity (nuclear generated)?
Shale has a horrible EROEI because they use Natty Gas to turn it. Nuclear has almost a negative EROEI because of storage costs.
Not Thorium !!
Net energy gains (EROEI)...
1...You are substituting one finite resource for another... And 2... Producing nuclear energy at profitable (NEG) rates is heavily dependent upon the net energy subsidy provided by oil... From the extraction of ore, the energy required to process and transport, the resources required to produce the infrastructure etc. Fission is simply not sustainable...
We cannot reform an economic system that at its core relies upon extracting energy profits (monetary profit) from finite energy resources... The math of profit only works on paper, not in the objective and finite reality in which we exist...
With present technology, the only way we can extract SUSTAINABLE energy from our environment is to produce the capital technologys that extract energy from our solar budget... Oh, and efficiency and conservation are the best tools in our box but that is coming whether we like it or not... With every hydrocarbon molecule we burn, entropy is increasing, it cannot be reversed... Thats the hardest truth we must face... The profit system of energy exchange (and thus the requirement for infinite growth/resourse consumption) has no future on this planet, we must face that fact and the sooner we do it, the softer our landing will be... Neoclassical economics refusal to ignore thermodynamics is nothing less than a crime against humanity... You may feel that statement to be extreme but it is killing people as we speak and the rate will continue to increase into the future until we can reach an energy equilibrium... It is killing people who have entrusted the best and brightest minds our world has to offer with the responcibility they asked for to make decisions that affect all our lives... Unless we recognise the laws of thermodynamics as the fundamental governing agents of economic systems (and all matter/energy in the universe itself), global civilization has no future... Here is a link to some interesting tidbits to get you started on the true path to economic enlightenment haha ;-)...
http://dieoff.org/page17.htm
Those who blindly advocate solar and wind clearly are not using it themselves or are independently wealthy. Do you have any idea how much solar costs, even with conservation? My house, using natural gas or propane for furnace, water heating (solar and gas combined) and possibly refrigeration, would require 35k worth of solar equipment. And that does not include the 3k for a gas refrigerator or retrofitting my water heater to solar/gas, or the cost of the CNG itself. When you consider that the batteries must be replaced every 10 years, the TCO for Solar is much higher. It would not pay itself at any point in my lifetime without either heavy subsidies (the Federal and State government picking your pocket to subsidize my system) or energy prices 10x what they are today. Perhaps, if the market was truly there and we had ten more years of innovation and refinement, the prices can go down to parity with nuclear, coal or oil.
As an example, Larry Hagman's system cost him 750k. He received 310k in rebates (subsidies) from the .gov. So, lets do the math. 440k divided by lets say 1k in electricity a month (a very large bill, but lets err in the side of solar) would still take 440 months to break even. Thats 36 years people! And considering that the batteries are about 30% of the overall cost and must be replaced every 10 years. you would have doubled you original expenditures at 30 years, 6 years before break even. At that rate, you would never break even.
Now, lets assume that you grid tie your system. That reduces that battery cost bringing the total system cost to 298K. 30 years break even. Yes, you are selling excess power to the utilities during the day, but is at a reduced rate and you are buying back at night. So for the sake of argument, lets say is a wash. So now you are betting that the utilities would not change the rules and would continue to 1. allow you to sell them back energy and 2. continue to allow you to use their system without additional fees and 3. will be around for ever. Want to take that bet?
The costs? You mean in $$$? I will say this with honest respect... I don't believe you have a fundamental understanding of the physical laws that govern energy and the scale of the global challenge we are facing right now! I also do not believe that you understand what individual profit really means on a planet of finite resources.
You are basing costs within the framework of an obsolete economic profit system that in the very near future will cease to exist. If nations do make the suicidal choice to maintain the global economic profit system which relies upon exponential consumption of energy and natural resources, the cost will be measured in human life!!! Are you going to pick up a rifle and go guard some middle eastern oil field? Do you want your children to? How is China, India, Russia yada yada yada going to take this???
I'll just go ahead and say it, unless we make the global choice to leave the profit system to history where it belongs, civilization will not survive. Yes, that is my opinion, one shared with many others and I can back it up with mathematical and scientific fact. Something the advocates of a continued energy profit system and infinite growth can not do!!!
We only have two choices at this point in time...
Global per capita resource equality and an end to the unsustainable over consumption of finite natural resources and its destruction of the biosphere that sustains us...
Or capitalism 2.0... A quick death for the lucky, a excruciatingly slow and miserable one for the rest...
The profit system has given us the knowledge and technological capital efficiency to provide for the needs and personal desires (no, not a ferrari and a mansion for all) of all mankind and with a new found sense of wealth most can only dream of... Every person on planet earth can be issued with a share of the sustainable energy extraction surplus via energy credits (money in our terms). Lets be happy with that and voluntarily leave this obsolete system in the past before the biosphere ans laws of thermodynamics does it for us. When/if we do free ourselves from this system, the monetary (energy gain) profitability of such technologys will never again be an issue. Just an engineering and scientific production challenge based upon our remaining fossil fuel energy budget (energy/money available for work)...
.
Noble idea but one can't forget that hairless monkeys are greedy, petty, selfish, jealous, deceitful, egotistical, narcissistic, gullible, thoughtless, violent, wasteful, irrational, superstituous and generally dumb. Partially I believe in gold because people are so predictable even if gold were only currency for 500 years instead of 6000 I'd be in line for some. I also believe that if you rationally explained to them what you stated above most would laugh, drink some liquor, get in a fight/light something on fire/get in a car accident, then go to bed hoping to wake up again and repeat the process.
I could live in a world of altruism as you describe but the great majority "want what's theirs." Try to fix that first.
Yup. And your kindly neighbors will, when TSHTF, come to your house where you have prudently stored goods for the future. They will take your shit and leave you for dead. They'll feel really bad about it, too.
Look up "Bedini" and "Energy from the Vacuum" , they may be on to some thing?
Interesting analysis.
I do power my home on solar and wind. I produce about 150% of what I use. There are electric providers that offer true net metering, and will "buy" excess at 100%, up to net zero, and then at a reduced rate after that. Bottom line is that allows you to have no electric bill, and a little profit on the excess, without batteries (yes, this assumes that the grid stays up).
The turnkey installed price of my systems was about 50K, but with incentives (which I am against, but did in fact accept), my out of pocket expense on system was around 20K.
With the incentives, it ALMOST makes sense to install solar and wind at today's energy prices. Note I say ALMOST.
There are two other factors that make might push you over the line to pull the trigger and purchase a system. First, it is a hedge against future unknown energy prices and availability.
Second, if you have assets, the question is what to do with them. Certainly PM's are attractive, but at some point you seek diversification. So, when you have loaded up on PM's what do you do next? PM's carry some political risks, and I believe an absolute in investing true throughout time is the importance of diversification. So,if you have PM's, how do you diversify? I don't like paper currency, afraid of stocks, afraid of bonds, what do I do? Land is a possibility, but land carries a liability of unknown future property taxes. It is also hard to buy in incremental, monthly amounts.
So, I viewed local solar and wind production as a means of a) diversification, and b) hedge against future inflation of energy prices. To be honest, also a little bit that I find it an interesting science project.
So, I ask, how could I have better invested the $20K I put into solar/wind? I am not asking as a smart *ss, but really asking . . . maybe there was something better to do.
Other investments I have made is in a greenhouse that produces several factors more food than my family consumes. I have made several other investments in local food production.
I am not a crazy hunkered down waiting for the end . . . just trying to cover my bases moving into an unknown and possibly unknowable future.
So what if I am wrong, and things chug along as always? Well, I continue to be gainfully employed, get a nice paycheck, and find great joy spending evenings in my greenhouse and fooling around with the solar and wind systems. Probably spent less on them than many do on golf in a year.
where do you live and how much land do you have? what about water source
Would prefer to not talk about acreage, but have reasonable space adjacent to a town of about 300 people. Town has a good well, that is easily maintained by local talent. Lots of welders and that type in the area. I can not imagine that they would not keep the water running in almost any scenario. I do have riverfront about a mile from my house, but don't think it will ever come down to me riding a horse to the river and fetching water. Just dont see things ever getting to that point.
...but with incentives (which I am against, but did in fact accept)....
Typical repugnicant, just like the Tea Party morons that Matt Taibbi wrote about earlier this week.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/17390/210904
They're full of shit. All of them. At the voter level, the Tea Party is a movement that purports to be furious about government spending — only the reality is that the vast majority of its members are former Bush supporters who yawned through two terms of record deficits and spent the past two electoral cycles frothing not about spending but about John Kerry's medals and Barack Obama's Sixties associations. The average Tea Partier is sincerely against government spending — with the exception of the money spent on them. In fact, their lack of embarrassment when it comes to collecting government largesse is key to understanding what this movement is all about...
The REAL Tea Party, not Sarah Palin's co-opted Neocon-lite version, was formed as a result of Ron Paul's run for the presidency in 2007-2008, long predates Rick "I Invented the Tea Party!" Santelli of CNBC, and is in fact principled in its libertarian opposition to virtually ALL federal spending ---- even that which ostensibly, and narrowly, might benefit the individual voter.
It is sad, but predictable, that Dick (and I accentuate the "dick") Armey, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck et al have somewhat successfully manage to subsume it into the Repugnican fold. Even so, a good many of those still associated with it are NOT looking for anything from the federal leviathan and Obamessiah other than to be left alone.
Those damn replugicanuts, less government, less spending, a passing glance at the Constitution what a bunch of nuts.. sarc off
I get so sick of you guys that take pride in your stand for nothing, libertarian to the nihilist end or power to the people it all ends in the same dark alley of nothingness..
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Can you clarify your position here?
Just who, or what, are you ranting against?
Just a chimp in a cage throwing shitballs at the spectators.
I am expressing my disgust at those who falsely characterize the entire Tea party movement as low brow fools easily co-opted by the likes of Palin or anyone else. It is a non-scripted 4th generation movement with essentially no leaders. A leaderless peaceful insurgency against the PTB, which makes it very frightening for those who need to be told what to do.
Rocky , "throwing Shit" please, you are better than that if you don't understand seek clarity.
I apologize for my outburst. A better exposition of your position would have avoided that.
Sometimes my sarcasm radar is defective. Tyler has chided me on that several times.
why dont you change your screenname to Obama nut-hugger
The Tea Party is the best thing going on in politics as far as leading America into a prosperous future is concerned
No WaffleHead - you are delusional. The stampede has been corralled. Every talking head out in front supports wasting your tax dollars on the GWOT and they love the FED.
It's over before it began.
Just as long as you don't touch their Medicare and Social Security.
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Reb,
Did you ever get your greenhouse fan working?
Yes Sir, I did. Lost the crop in the greenhouse though, as temp got over 150. What I have learned is that on a greenhouse, you need to keep spares of all critical parts.
lol
This is the conundrum with "sustainability," that of replacement parts in complex systems.
You need to have shit you can fabricate replacements for if you are off the grid. Solar is INCREDIBLY complex and can only really work in a society full of really smart people. Same with wind; these are complex machines requiring a lot of engineering, thought, very advanced materials. A lot harder than Rankine-cycle coal plants.
Shit like this works in Denmark, Norway, Iceland, etc...the "high tech" energy. In societies with politically incorrect demographics and high IQs.
We've no hope of that here. A nation like mexico has a 0% chance of supporting a sufficiently robust semiconductor industry to support solar power.
"Solar is INCREDIBLY complex..."
Having worked, built and lived with solar system off grid, I disagree. The only real complexity lies with the construction of the panels themselves, and that is really not all that "slick", initial panel material came from rejected material from the semiconductor industry. The rest of the system can be as high tech or low tech as you desire. Grid connections do have a "little more hair on them".
With regards to wind, wind power has been around for many hundreds of years... the small wind turbines of today are slick and efficient but would not last in the shit hit the fan future world talked about on ZH, the solar panels/systems might. The old style wind mills for water pumping would come back and are "easy" to construct and maintain. I have no personnel experience with the large 1MW plus wind turbines, but would guess that the large wind farms have less maintenance etc than a comparable fossil fuel plant, which I do have experience with.
Regarding "society full of really smart people", I think that we do indeed have a society with alot of "really smart thoughtful people" (the blogs on ZH and some other sites demonstrate that), unfortunately they are not motivated and encouraged to take any initiative, just the opposite. In the words of Frank Zappa, "don't make a fuss just get on the bus....