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Guest Post: Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think
By my analysis, we are not yet on the final path to recovery, and
there are one or more financial 'breaks' coming in the future.
Underlying structural weaknesses have not been resolved, and the
kick-the-can-down-the-road plan is going to encounter a hard wall in the
not-too-distant future. When the next moment of discontinuity finally
arrives, events will unfold much more rapidly than most people expect.
My work centers on figuring out which macro trends are in play and
then helping people to adjust accordingly. Based on trends in fiscal
and monetary policy, I began advising accumulation of gold and silver in
2003 and 2004. I shorted homebuilder stocks beginning in 2006 and
ending in 2008. These were not ‘great' calls; they were simply spotting
trends in play, one beginning and one certain to end, and then taking
appropriate actions based on those trends.
We happen to live in a non-linear world; a core concept of the Crash Course.
But far too many people expect events to unfold in a more or less
orderly manner, with plenty of time to adjust along the way. In other
words, linearly. The world does not always cooperate, and my concern
rests on the observation that we still face the convergence of multiple
trends, each of which alone has the power to permanently transform our economic landscape and standards of living.
Three such trends (out of the many I track) that will shape our immediate future are:
- Peak Oil
- Sovereign insolvency
- Currency debasement
Individually, these worry me quite a bit; collectively, they have my full attention.
History suggests that instead of a nice smooth line heading either up
or down, markets have a pronounced habit of jolting rather suddenly
into a new orbit, either higher or lower. Social moods are steady for
long periods, and then they shift. This is what we should train
ourselves to expect.
No smooth lines between points A and B; instead, long periods of
quiet, followed by short bursts of reformation and volatility. Periods
of market equilibrium, followed by Minsky moments.
In the language of the evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, we
live in a system governed by the rules of "punctuated equilibrium."
Complex Systems
Our economy is a complex system. The key feature of such systems is
that they are inherently unpredictable with respect to the timing and
severity of specific events. For the uninitiated, they can look
enormously fragile and prone to flying apart at any minute; for the
seasoned observer, there is an appreciation that the immense inertia of
the economic system will almost always delay and dampen the eventual
adjustments.
Like everybody else, I have no idea exactly what’s going to happen, or precisely when. Anybody who says they do know
should be greeted with a furrowed brow and a frown of suspicion. As
my long-time readers know, I prefer to assess the risks and then take
steps to mitigate those risks based on likelihood and impact.
Which means that although we cannot predict the size (exactly how much) or the timing (precisely when) of economic shifts or world-changing events, we can certainly understand the risks and the dimensions of what
might happen. Just as we cannot predict when an avalanche will
release from steep slope, or even where or how big it will be, we can
readily predict that constant snowfall coupled with the right
temperature conditions will lead to an avalanche sooner or later, and
more likely in this gully than that one. Given certain conditions, we
might expect one that is larger or smaller than normal. Although we
don't know exactly when or how much, we do know that when snow
accumulates, so do the risks of more frequent and/or larger avalanches.
Such is the nature of complex systems. While inherently
unpredictable, they can still be described. The most important
description of any complex system is that it owes its order and
complexity to the constant flow of energy through it. Complex systems
require inputs. This is one way in which we can understand them.
Given this view, one easy "prediction" is that an economy without
increasing energy flows running through it will stagnate. To take this
further, an economy that is being starved of energy becomes simpler in
the process -- meaning fewer jobs, less items produced, and a reduced
capacity to support extraneous functions.
Accepting "What Is"
The most important part of this story is getting our minds to accept
reality without our passionate beliefs interfering. By ‘beliefs’ I
mean statements like these:
- “Things always get better and are never as bad as they seem.”
- “If Peak Oil were ‘real,’ I would be hearing about it from my trusted sources.”
- “Dwelling on the negative is self-fulfilling.”
While each of these things might be true, they also might be false
and therefore misleading, especially during periods of transition. Our
job is to remain as dispassionate and logical as possible.
Let's now examine more closely the three main events that are
converging -- Peak Oil, sovereign insolvency, and currency debasement --
using as much logic as we can muster.
Peak Oil
Peak Oil is now a matter of open inquiry and debate at the highest
levels of industry and government. Recent reports by Lloyd's of London,
the US Department of Defense, the UK industry taskforce on Peak Oil,
Honda, and the German military are evidence of this. But when I say
“debate,” I am not referring to disagreement over whether or not Peak
Oil is real, only when it will finally arrive. The emerging consensus
is that oil demand will outstrip supplies “soon,” within the next five
years and maybe as soon as two. So the correct questions are no longer,
"Is Peak Oil real?" and "Are governments aware?” but instead, "When
will demand outstrip supply?" and “What implications does this have for
me?”
It doesn't really matter when the actual peak arrives; we can leave
that to the ivory-tower types and those with a bent for analytical
precision. What matters is when we hit “peak exports.” My expectation
is that once it becomes fashionable among nation-states to finally
admit that Peak Oil is real and here to stay, one or more exporters
will withhold some or all of their product "for future generations" or
some other rationale (such as, "get a higher price"), which will rather
suddenly create a price spiral the likes of which we have not yet
seen.
What matters is an equal mixture of actual oil availability and
market perception. As soon as the scarcity meme gets going, things will
change very rapidly.
In short, it is time to accept that Peak Oil is real - and plan accordingly.
Sovereign Insolvency
Once we accept the imminent arrival of Peak Oil, then the issue of
sovereign insolvency jumps into the limelight. Why? Because the hopes
and dreams of the architects of the financial rescue entirely rest upon
the assumption that economic growth will resume. Without additional
supplies of oil, such growth will not be possible; in fact, we’ll be
doing really, really well if we can prevent the economy from
backsliding.
Virtually every single OECD country, due to outlandish pension and
entitlement programs, has total debt and liability loads that Arnaud Mares (of Morgan Stanley) pointed out
have resulted in a negative net worth for the governments of Germany,
France, Portugal, the US, the UK, Spain, Ireland, and Greece. And not
by just a little bit, but exceptionally so, ranging from more than 450%
of GDP in the case of Germany on the 'low' end to well over 1,500% of
GDP for Greece.
Such shortfalls cannot possibly be funded out of anything other than a
very, very bright economic future. Something on the order of
Industrial Age 2.0, fueled by some amazing new source of wealth.
Logically, how likely is that? Even if we could magically remove the
overhang of debt, what new technologies are on the horizon that could
offer the prospect of a brand new economic revival of this magnitude?
None that I am aware of.
In the US, the largest capital market and borrower, even the most
optimistic budget estimates foresee another decade of crushing deficits
that will grow the official deficit by some $9 trillion and the real
(i.e., “accrual” or “unofficial”) deficit by perhaps another $20 to $30
trillion, once we account for growth in liabilities. This is, without
question, an unsustainable trend.
It’s time to admit the obvious: Debts of these sorts cannot be
serviced, now or in the future. Expanding them further with fingers
firmly crossed in hopes of an enormous economic boom that will bail out
the system is a fool’s game. It is little different than doubling down
after receiving a bad hand in poker.
The unpleasant implication of various governments going deeper into
debt is that a string of sovereign defaults lies in the future. Due to
their interconnected borrowings and lendings, one may topple the next
like dominoes.
However, it is when we consider the impact of the widespread
realization of Peak Oil on the story of growth that the whole idea of
sovereign insolvency really assumes a much higher level of probability.
More on that later.
For now we should accept that there's almost no chance of growing out
from under these mountains of debts and other obligations. We must
move our attention to the shape, timing, and the severity of the
aftermath of the economic wreckage that will result from a series of
sovereign defaults.
Currency Wars
We could trot out a lot of charts here, examine much of history, and
make a very solid case that once a country breaches the 300%
debt/liability to GDP ratio, there's no recovery, only a future
containing some form of default (printing or outright).
In a recent post to my enrolled members, I wrote:
The currency wars have begun, and the implications to world stability
and wealth could not be more profound. Fortunately, all of my
long-time enrolled members are prepared for this outcome, which we've
been predicting here for some time.When pressed, the most predictable decision in all of history is to
print, print, print. So I can't take credit for a 'prediction' that
was just slightly bolder than 'predicting' which way a dropped anvil
will travel; down or up?The only problem is, widespread currency debasements will further
destabilize an already rickety global financial system where tens of
trillions of fiat dollars flow daily on the currency exchanges.
You can be nearly certain that every single country is seeking a path
to a weaker relative currency. The problem is obvious: Everybody
cannot simultaneously have a weaker currency. Nor can everybody have a
positive trade balance.
If a country or government cannot grow its way out from under its
obligations, then printing (a.k.a. currency debasement) takes on
additional allure. It is the "easy way out" and has lots of political
support in the home country. Besides the fact that it has already
started, we should consider a global program of currency debasement to
be a guaranteed feature of our economic future.
Conclusion (to Part I)
Three unsustainable trends or events have been identified here. They
are not independent, but they are interlocked to a very high degree.
At present I can find no support for the idea that the economy can
expand like it has in the past without increasing energy flows,
especially oil. All of the indications point to Peak Oil, or at least
"peak exports," happening within five years.
At that point, it will become widely recognized that most sovereign
debts and liabilities will not be able to be serviced by the miracle of
economic growth. Pressures to ease the pain of the resulting financial
turmoil and economic stagnation will grow, and currency debasement
will prove to be the preferred policy tool of choice.
Instead of unfolding in a nice, linear, straightforward manner, these
colliding events will happen quite rapidly and chaotically.
By mentally accepting that this proposition is not only possible, but
probable, we are free to make different choices and take actions that
can preserve and protect our wealth and mitigate our risks.
What changes in our actions and investment stances are prudent if we
assume that Peak Oil, sovereign insolvency, and currency debasement are
'locks' for the future?
I explore these questions in greater depth in Part II of this report (enrollment required)
»
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would there were more people willing to invest in their local communities the way you describe here Rebel. . . your posts show the value in sharing information and infrastructure to maintain integrity with your surroundings, including humanity.
respect.
[edit: lol to my anonymous junker, following me through the thread - this post is worthy of junking HOW? ]
Do you have any vacancies. Seems you have it pretty well covered. If possible buy a general practicioner and some shoulder fired SAMs. Other than that, good luck Brother and see ya on the other side.
Cossack,
Dont have a general practitioner, but my daughter is finishing up her nurse practitioner. Hoping she decides to stay in the area.
goldsaver
Read the following larticles.
When I first started reading ZH someone posted the idea that it would take far more oil/energy to create the Solar or wind machinery and structures, wire/steel/concrete,to switch to.
Excellent post but I can't find it.
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2010/09/why-energy-efficiency-does-not...
Why Energy Efficiency Does not Decrease Energy Consumption
http://noimpactman.typepad.com/blog/2008/05/lv-grn-when-to.html
http://www.canadianarchitect.com/asf/perspectives_sustainibility/measure...
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Jevons_paradox
Jevons paradoxStephen Leeb's last couple of books are about this exactly.
Well, get the fuck used to it!
Energy is getting MORE expensive! Sure, you could power your life on a few weeks' worth of work, now it will take years. This is the road forward, where consumption of energy costs more.
Yes, obviously, investment in solar was a wise idea 10 years ago, if we wanted to collectivize planning for oil scarcity. We didn't. Staring impending oil peak in the face, we did the Easter Island thing and INCREASED consumption markedly.
Oh yeah baby, solar.. about as inefficient as it gets, so cut the labor inputs to give it a chance at making economic sense ( made in China) and then install them everywhere and when the sun don't shine.. well, sunshine think about how sustainable you are when grandma's ventilator shuts down during thunderstorms.. Of course, you could do nuclear but that is so dangerous..
Energy does not HAVE to be more expensive what the hell do yo u malthusians read on your days out of the killing fields...
Solar is becoming more efficient and the IR spectrum is making it more so. There are also solar options that work in cloudy days such as solar water heating and more passive options via solar.
If people weren't so accustomed to waste, less energy would be needed anyway. When/if energy becomes more expensive, and I see that it will, people will use less and conserve more. If a neighbor could offer energy at a reduced cost because they have solar/wind/geothermal would it be declined? Independent energy distribution is a possibility, off the grid, as long as people are willing to accept it and pay for it.
Solar is deus ex machina.
There are panels with vastly higher efficiencies than current commercial models, but they only exist on Mars. Literally, they are on the rovers up there and cost $1M a sq foot or something.
Also, solar doesn't solve the growth problem unless it will get sunnier.
We have to solve the GROWTH problem; everything else is secondary. We are trying to perpetuate geometric expansion and it cannot be done. We have Princeton Ph.D.s who seem to think it can.
Agree
When you say "about as inefficient as it gets" what are you referring to?
With regards to components made in china, there are many new start up solar manafacturing facilites in the US that are very competitive.
I would be very interested in seeing "hard examples" to back your statements.
Your current example of "Grandma's ventilator" is inaccuate, currently "Grandma's ventilator would be connected to the utility grid and back up by a standby generator AND a BATTERY BACK UP!!!! Same as most solar system that not grid connected.
Inefficient as it gets refers to the inputs required to make the cells, the electrical and control hardware, tie into the grid, the truly MASSIVE battery pile required, their associated inputs and the constant cleaning required.
But yeah the ventilator will be tied to the grid. Yep right, the grid that should be powered by coal and nuclear.. You got it!!
Hard examples, do your own research. If solar stood on its own, the Government would not have to throw money at it...
I think you are offering a false argument. What's the payoff point on an SUV or a new car? Whats the payoff point on using existing utilities, where do you break even?
Solar or other nongrid tied energy systems, offer you a chance at independence. Just as not being in debt offers independence and a different life style, so does being off the grid. The grid is the 1st tie point by which you are collared and controlled by the system. It is the means by which the oligarchy drains your wealth and controls your destiny.
Getting off the grid isn't about breaking even on an investment in technology, its about changing the way you live. I don't expect to make money off the purchase of my car, or the purchase of my food, why would I expect to break even by supplying my own power?
The technology for solar is now near a tipping point, it is definetly cheap enough for the average midddle class family to install it. It is cheaper to purchase than a BMW or a large SUV. It will last much longer than either vehicle. The simple truth is that if most people were to change their lifestlyes slightly, they could afford on site solar power.
Batteries are the only technology which has not yet been improved to the point of making long term storage of solar electricty more cost feasible. Battery technology will see major changes in the next 10 years. Using deep cycle lead acid batteries, which are the best tech on a price/performance ratio, a set of batteries should last 5 years or more, so worse case in 2 battery change cycles (10 years) a better alternative should be available.
I would advise anyone interested in this topic to read more at http://www.homepower.com
they have spent years discussing issues like this and designing power systems. If you are interested in peak oil and the ramifications, visite http://www.theoildrum.com
and if you would like to understand more about a really longterm nuclear system based on thorium
try http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EHdRJqi__Z8
I want it, I don't know how to find an honest, competent, installer. Met a dishonest one and it put a halt on the whole project.
Ah, but you're assuming that the surface of a planet is the right place for an expanding technological civilization. Time to use technology to get off this rock.
Stycho - Your posts are great and then you jump the shark with this get-off-the-rock post. Put down the crack pipe and come back to us. ;-)
speed of light limitation a very effective quarantine...Stuck on this rock.
Check out the mini nukes at Hyperion Power Generation. Plausible and available.
"where conventional wisdom dictates that oil is biotic"
For the fucking love of... it's neither "conventional," nor "wisdom!"
Fucking abiotic kooks STFU!
If one were to accept this nonsense one would have to believe in one of the following:
1) The center of the earth is filled with oil;
2) Time is magically sped up ONLY when it comes to the creation of oil;
3) CO2 is re-condensing as oil.
There's a fucking good(?) reason why rich white people are running around blowing up dark-skinned people in the middle east. Hint: it's NOT because we want to bring them "freedom!"
Any increases in Russian oil extraction have to do with a continued modernization post-USSR collapse.
See me in about 5 years. Not that their production means much, as of concern here, to the number one economic power (USA) is that others export oil to it; and as Martenson notes, the real issue is peak export.
+1000, and nice rant.
Abiotic oil is completely discredited as a major source of oil. It might - might! - be responsible for some tiny fraction of earth's oil. It is not some magic Deus ex Machina that is going to save us.
+1000 for the deus ex machina smackdown...
What evidence is there for and against abiotic oil? It seem to me that biological material trapped in the a subsiding plate, with the right amount of heat and pressure will cause it to turn into a long chain hydrocarbon. I don't know what the rate of replenishment would be, but it makes a lot of sense. This has been done in the lab.
People go around calling people who think a certain way crazy without thinking about the actual issue. Instead, they parrot what they have heard before.
tmosley - the Earth is very hot inside. Hell, there's molten lava in there. The deeper you go the hotter it gets. Basically it's like a raging furnace. Where and how does this abiotic oil survive in the furnace?
Anywhere in the several miles between the crust and the magma.
In that area, there is a lot of heat, a lot of pressure, but it is below the flash point of oil. Since oil is a liquid, and less dense than rock and usually water, you only need to have the carbon rich plate subducting under a porous, water filled plate. The oil will displace the water, and rise through the porous rock until it becomes trapped in a reservoir.
I mean, why do you think there are so many salt water aquifers, but so few fresh water ones? Its because the subduction zones usually sit under the sea, and water gets pulled into any porous rock.
Look, moron, didn't you get your ass bitchslapped bad enough on the LAST Peak Oil topic?
GFD, to ALL THE PEOPLE here who say I am abrasive or that I would be more effective if I softened up, HERE is your case-in-point.
This guy, tmosly, came on the last PO thread spouting the SAME shit as now. Abiotic oil, no peak. He thinks if he repeats it enough times, it will become true.
How the hell am I supposed to stay patient when the same idiots won't listen over and over and over again? I may as very well just say "STFU, STUPID."
TM, YOU are a fuckin parrot. You don't even grasp how abiotic oil does not solve the Peak problem. So, as I am wont to say, S T F U
Please, don't be an idiot
Peak coal? Not so sure the world is out of coal. Maybe the political will to level mountains or generate too much particulate pollution. Kind of like the USA refusing to drill for oil off our coasts while Cuba, Peru, Russia, China drills in out back (and front) yard.
Got your peak coal right here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5256
also worth considering:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/6700
And search that website if you're interested in the topic.
Peak oil or coal doesn't mean "the world is out of coal" (or oil), it means that production will peak and after that time demand will exceed supply, which is a rather important thing to ponder.
The oil drum is a great site, lots of very expirenced "oil/coal/gas patch" folks on those blogs. Concensus in that group.... Peak oil is here.
Why use domestic oil, when we can buy oil from others using U.S. Electros (electronic dollars) to pay for it? Once and a while we have to give the oil producers some food, gold or military equipment, but they are pretty good about buying our debt for the time being. If they start to balk at the method of payment, we can always bomb the shit out of their Country.
For the TRILLIONTH TIME, people, if you DO NOT understand what "Peak" means, please DO NOT comment on it or otherwise state your freaking opinion.
WTF happened that people are unashamed of ignorance these days?
If you're going to get so upset about what you perceive as people's ignorance, perhaps you ought to write up an explanation, save it on your computer, and cut and paste it into these types of threads. I don't think I've ever seen you do anything but froth at the mouth in threads like this.
There's plenty of coal/oil/gas/... left when you are at the peak.
The peak concept is not about running out of a resource, it is about the rate of extraction/production, its Hubbert curve approximation and hence the inevitable conclusion that the rate ultimately must go into terminal decline.
Also with regards to coal there are different grades of coal and so you also ought to distinguish between how many tonnes of material you dig up and how much energy that material actually produces. A qualified discussion could be to talk about "peak subbitumious coal" or "peak anthracite coal" with bonus points for adjusting for ERoEI.
Dude, I have explained probably 50 times what Peak is.
Including to YOU. On the Last Peak Topic.
And yet, HERE YOU ARE, saying the same ignorant crap AGAIN.
How do you expect me to not just simply laugh at you?
And, btw, I'm not upset...I'm simply stating fact. People like you and the other guy, who do not understand Peak, should not comment on it. You should be LISTENING, not speaking.
The next PO topic, you will no doubt be back with "abiotic oil, no peak," and the rest of it, and I will again hear from you how oh boohoo your vagina hurts because I am so abrasive.
You, tmosley, are guilty of plagiarism:
See my post above: #620860
Trav, there is a unending supply...
http://www.peopleofwalmart.com/
It went the way of self-restraint, Nasty mouth.
You are despicable. No one cares how you FEEL.
Your nasty mouth is revolting and does not convince.
Whatever you may think you know could be proven wrong tomorrow.
It is a source of great satisfaction to me to know that, in the final analysis, your opinion means absolutely no more than my totally uninformed one.
But by keeping a civil tongue in my head, I manage not to pollute the world with the poverty of a debauched soul.
The boat will sink faster and faster as it takes on water. Naturally it will lurch and times seem to stop but the end result should not be in doubt. To the bottom of the ocean. The West is dead, we killed ourselves on every level. Naturally no one in power will admit this because it might spook the herd and they may stampede an that is not good for those in power. All that remains now is for the band to play on while the important people are led to their life boats while the common man is left locked in steerage, many not even knowing the ship is going down.
As for quickness everyone imagine what would happen if there was a sustained spike of oil prices back to 08 highs, and our already increasing food costs.
What I want to know is who pissed in your Cheerios???
Getting what you called for, Zimbabwe Ben to destroy savers. I understand it helps you. You get to hit your numbers, but it ruins us normal guys and the people you manage funds for. Doesn't really help them if you get a high return but the COL goes up by an ever greater amount. Not everyone gets to ride the gravy train, but hey good on those who can. I would probably be happy as a clam if I could rely on the insanity of central bankers to make a living.
How do you personally feel about the fact that these pensioners will see high returns if you get what you want but it won't mean anything as the cost of things goes up? I know they are not sophisticated enough to know whats happening by and large, but I want to know how you feel personally about them. And I didn't junk you. Rooting for someone to make your job easy and make sure you get paid doesn't do anything to change the outcome.
Leo, I thought you were dying?
Get on with it already!
(I just hope you get to watch the dollar beat you to the grave --- and your parasitical existence and profession along with it.)
It's good for us to disagree with each other akak, but that was a really shitty thing to say... to put it mildly.
Anyone, such as Leo, who incessantly makes a mockery of this forum, flaming and trolling in the most egregious of manners, and then has the nerve to seek pity by parading a supposed illness, earns nothing but my complete contempt. Such a person deserves no respect of any kind, and none will be forthcoming from me.
My only question is why he is tolerated at all, much less provided a podium as a contributor here, given his innumerable gratuitously and willfully antagonistic comments here. It is not a matter of differing opinion, either --- he consistently "baits and runs", posting inflammatory comments without the integrity or courage to respond to the resulting disagreements and rebuttals. This is simply cowardice and trolling.
At least as far as posted comments go, Leo contributes nothing of value whatsoever here on ZeroHedge, except to act as shit-stirrer.
I think you take internet forums far too seriously.
Some of you repugnicants are really, really high-strung.
Relax, eat a Salisbury Steak TV dinner, dream about the apocalypse and urban warfare, watch some Glenn Beck and divert all that hatred toward Obama/Hitler.
.... and speaking of shit-stirrers .....
Your talent for assholery rivals that of Leo.
+1.
Akak, tho i agree with your estimation of said characters, just the same do we want a free speech forum or not? I know nothing of finance, have little to contribute and should be shut out as well. i did not care for JBs juvenile attacks either Or robos foolishness. Some no doubt work for "The MAN" in any case contrarians are good too . How can you know hot without cold?
Our rebellious feelings, as our very survival is in peril, are finally surfacing. I fear too late and the machine is well set. It seems in my "opinion" that its every man for himself and god blessed those who have true friends that will not turn against them.
I see no way to fight back against the banks, market and government . It will have to die due to lack of participation.
lol, "don't know nothing 'bout finance?"
obviously know something 'bout human psychology, and that is the only requirement for complete understanding of finance.
"It will have to die due to lack of participation."
"It will have to die due to lack of participation."
Bull's Eye! You win the Stuffed Tin Man!
Buy Oz, don't participate!
"Strange Game. The only winning move is not to play" - War Games
Living up to your screen name nicely. Bravo.
MereH,
" have little to contribute"
I personally love your take/outlook on much of the world, and always look for your avatar in a thread.
You have me constantly questioning the definition of success and happiness.
Thank you. (You too Madame MsCreant)
;-)
"eat a Salisbury Steak TV dinner"
Can I just skip that and go straight to the apocalypse?
Wait, there's a problem. I never learned to dance the apocalypso.
How about you swing by whole foods eat some tofu... Pleasure yourself to bammy's portrait and watch some madcoww to simmer down after..
You mean Obama/name your favorite socialist, not Hitler
akaka,
You're a complete and utter moron. I do not want or need pity from anyone. I never asked to have MS, but I got it 13 years ago and you know what, it made me a much stronger person. I'm the most persevering SOB you'll ever meet, and quitting is not in my vocabulary. So do us all a favor, and THINK before you pollute this forum with your trash. Even if I was in a wheelchair and severely incapacitated, which thank God I'm not, I can still take you on in my sleep. You really are that dumb and insignificant.
And yet your post certainly sounds like an appeal for pity. No-one cares. The only thing that matters on these internets is your mind, and your understanding of the minds of others. You've obviously got not too bad of a brain, but your understanding of human behavior leaves something to be desired, which is why you catch a lot of shit.
Leo, the fact that your kneejerk pro-establishment apologies, appeals to authority, and admonitions of surrender to the status-quo power structure here in this forum are routinely junked into oblivion speaks for itself.
AKAKAKAKAKAKAKAKAK
Now I recognize you.
That mouth should be condemned.
Where's code enforcement when you need it?
Leo, my Cheerios have reeked of piss for 2 years. The gentleman is simply correct.
The boat you talk of is caught in the perfect storm. Increasing food and energy costs / inflationary, during a deflationary period.
Put like that one would say thank God for the deflation!
Lots of signs of clinical and financial depression here
STG,
And that surprises you how?.Wait till the MANIC phase hits.
That's when lead will be worth more than PM's.
He'll, I've been waiting for the shit to hit the fan since 2005. If there's one thing I've learned the hard way (and lost shitloads in the process) it's that the system can buy more time.
Yes, things will and must collapse. But imminence is a very dangerous prediction, and timing is everything.
As much as I wish Chris was right.... I have to say the exact opposite. Things will collapse much more slowly than you think.
Maybe, but do you want to assume that the can-kicking can go on forever? As for me, I think we just need to be prepared for the real deal knowing full well that there might be a lot of false alarms between now and then.
It's kind of like the doomsday cults. I believe in the second coming of Christ and all that will happen, but I don't name a time and day, burn my money and my house, and climb the mountain expecting that I can call that event. Those of us who are Christians live by the idea that "no one knows the times or dates set by the Father."
Be prepared, but keep living in the meantime.
Indeed. And the "end of the world" mania in 999AD in Britain was severe! They all went home from Jerusalem, bewildered, to the houses and cities they did not maintain, the fields they did not plant, and the reality they did not see.
Maybe. John Michael Greer, a level above Chris Martenson IMHO for peak oil writers, points out that systems that are wealthy (Western Society) have inherently many resources/sectors that can be canabalized to stave off collapse as long as possible.
You got one thing right.
There sure as hell will be cannibalism,... just not the kind you mean.
Jesus, and here I thought my outlook was dark.
As long as we don't run out of horseradish...
Oh, are you having an old friend for dinner tonight?
:)
Yeh, but I need an oven big enough to hold a 300lb roast!
Sharp knives or a chainsaw could be of help to you, one does not eat an elephant in one bite.
Definitely chainsaws...
John Micheal Greer, the Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids of America. He's AWESOME! Seriously... for anyone who wants guidance on how to live post-capitalism he is the guide... A great writer too! Check it out.
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/
You know - I think I have to agree here. The governments are now well aware of the problem and I think are going to print.. until they can't anymore. I think things will only fall aparts once we see a real hit of inflation... like a doubling of prices very quickly here in the states.
Two things come to mind when I read this statement:
1. It has been collapsing since 1913, and accelerated 40 years ago and accelerated more in 2008. It WAS a nice slow collapse, we are at the end.
2. Even if I were incline to think it could drag on for another 5 years (which i'm not), common sense and prudence would force me to prepare as if it could happen tomorrow.
They will make a move very soon, either war, or economic collapse or both.
Parabolic baby! The time compression is what scares me. Events, of all kinds, that "normally" would take years or decades are happening in weeks and days now. Civilization is a very fragile thing.
Not real bright to get yourself whipped up into a frenzy by events that so many purport are designed to deliberately defraud us.
Isn't that what they want you to think? Are you behaving as they expect you to think?
Lemming.
this is another thing I've written about here...the speed of collapse won't be what you think.
see, we read history books about Roman collapse; do you recall that it took literally centuries? Yet we read the paragraph about it in a minute and think it was some kind of poof.
The shit IS hitting the fan, but the fan is rotating rather slowly. That's all. Expecting to wake up one day to the sun rising in the West is a bit unrealistic. Things don't play out like that.
Even Weimar was over the course of YEARS. We can read about it in a minute but the reality is that history took a lot longer to play out than it takes to read about on a Wikipedia page.
The collapse is underway as we speak - THIS is what it is like and will be like. When I first got into these discussions people thought I meant madmax apocalypse when I said "sustained global recession." It's going to instead be an inexorable, grinding sense of growing malaise, malcontent, strife, punctuated by good times.
The energy supply growth wave didn't go up in a minute and it won't crash down in one either. Think of it like a current in the sea. It will transpire over timescales far longer than your average TV show.
I have not agreed with you very often, but when your right your right. This collapse is going to be long, drawn out and will not always feel like a collapse. So many people have hitched their wagon to our present system, call it what you will, that it will take years to unhitch the wagons and find another semi-sustainable model.
In other words, morph - not start over. Just like it has always been. And will always be. Things never stay the same. Humans cope. (Well, some do.)
I wonder if the population was growing exponentially this quickly when the other empires collapsed or if there was anything like a world society built completely around one chemical / energy source. I think the downslope will be anything but predictable
Back in 1978 several political activist groups populated with some sharp mathematician types, and a government analyst who was the top civil service guy at a government agency, were given access to several Cray supercomputers to run some "delphi" type future prediction analyses.
Both groups and the government analyst all came to the same end prediction extrapolated from existing economic trends: collapse of the predatory capitalist system by the end of 2012 -- with the concentration occurring from 2011 to 2012.
Now the government analyst's program spun out four very detailed and specifically dated predictions, the first three of which occurred on the specified dates (e.g., one was the accurately predicted date of the dissolution and demise of the Soviet Union), the fourth being the collapse by 2012.
I don't pretend that this will occur as predicted, as this is a unique and first-time event situation.
But I'm not hopeful.....
The smartest five hundred lemmings in all Lemmingia have announced that today is the day. Run!
Popo, da man.
Sure, but the tab for this purchase is on our dime.
I'm ready to close my account.
Ally floated, so is JPM and BAC. Now we just need WFB and C to report the news over the weekend to kick start the firework.
China is on vacation and won't be back until 10/8. Succos is ending today. Amplify that with unrest in the PIIG. Expect a lot of rattling over the weekend...
Oh Boy!
Peak oil, is that bullish for solars? LOL!!! Relax, keep buying them dips!!!
Maybe in the short to medium term as ignorant people malinvest. If you understood evolution and ecological systems you would understand why solars are a net loser in the long run. You can't beat the efficiency of organic systems based on a billion years of evolution. Man's arrogance is an oil-high, similar to the euphoria felt on various drugs.
I see my portfolio evolving...EXPONENTIALLY!!! :) :) :)
Leo, average growth funds have seen ridiculous turnarounds in performance from the end of Q2 to the end of Q3. Growth and high beta are begging to be sold here.
I see the Canadian Housing bubble evolving...EXPONENTIALLY!!! And when they all go into foreclosure just like this fustercluck due Sud, at least they will have their solar power to boil the Ramen noodles...AYE?
Canadians are a bunch of free riding, smug sons of bitches... I know 'cause I am one! We're so nice, we're so polite! BULLSHIT. We're opportunists of the worst kind. Too crass to be British and too cowardly to be Americans... Coo roo coo coo coo coo coo cooooo!
HAHA
THANK YOU
You're a dumbass...lol. The only reason solars have any revenue is because they are 100% subsidized by the Gov't. Take that away and you can piss away revenues.
You can cover the planets with panels and it won't be enough....
but you can cover the planet with plants and change everything.
Yep, its called sustainability and I have seen it with my own eyes...
Aha, Leo finally bought silver?
Giv'em one for me, Leo.
You may be right that in the end solars are net losers and I concur that organic systems (in the end) are more efficient. However, I am not yet ready to live the life style of the Amish, I like my computer, washing machine and frig. I really would perfer not to witness a massive sudden human dieoff. There has to be a better way out of this box. Why are we all collectively sitting on our asses?
I'm not sitting on my ass.
I hold elected political office, run a business and battle for real sustainable conservatively based change on a daily basis. Stop sitting around admiring the computer and your washing machine and do something..
Protest something, write a letter a day, demand an end to the fraud, remove your money from the zombies..
No, it's not. Solar manufacturing (...& all manufacturing) depends on cheap plentiful oil. PV is not the paradigm shift you're looking for.
Solar companies will die in an economic collapse, just like everything else.
Keep on being a dip!!! LOL!!!
Couldn't they use their solar panels to power their manufacturing? Even if it means halting sales for a few months, it should be enough to provide for their future production...
Solars depend on plastics which are oil.
You don't have to. There are other feedstocks for plastic cases than crude oil. Vegetable oil of various descriptions can be used for that fairly easily, though the cost for the raw material is greater. The case only makes up maybe 20% of the cost of the cell.
"You don't have to. There are other feedstocks for plastic cases than crude oil."
If you understood EROEI and what the geological event called Peak Oil really means and the effect that Peak Export means, and really took the last few years reading TheOilDrum.com among others, you'd realize that the scalablity of the things you mentioned cannot and will not happen for many many reasons.
Vegetable oil? Do you have any idea what that would take to use that on a scalable quantity?
Solar panels must have glass, silcone, boron and phosporus and metal for a conductors.... plastics are not required, the plastic parts can be substutited. If you disagree please provide specifics....
However... all manufacturing industries will take a dump in a collapse, so will your electric grid. The question is will you be able to start up small cottage industries with what is left???? Big unknowns...
There you go, bringing reality into things again!
Greer had some insightful comments on this little issue. Namely that while this issue dooms PV solar in the long run, it might still be a sensible short-term tool to effectively buy and store energy while it's relatively cheaper and more available.
Leo knows solar cells are not a panacea for energy depletion, he is solely focused on the return on the investment and that is okay because this is his focus. Me, I am worried about my children and can see solar energy is as useless as pissing into a hurricane.
There is a reason the universe has naturally chosen to either split or combine atoms as an energy source and it has very little to do with Leo's portfolio. I think nature may be on to something and perhaps just perhaps handled properly, we should follow her lead.. Just a thought..
Dodos spend 20 k on solar and lament payback time, or ignore solar as being unfeasible.
Crows buy black drums, hook'em up to pipes and a pump and have solar hot water. Payback measured in months.
So many Braniacs, so few Jimmy Olsens.
Solars depend on fossil fuels for their production and maintenance. Short term, maybe bullish, long term, no way.
haha...great minds.
Indeed, fellow primate.
"Indeed, fellow inmate" may be more correct Dear MsCreant. Glad to see you still drop in.
I hope you are well merehuman. I enjoy how consistent you are in your perspective. You have more integrity than most of us here. LeBalance nailed it nicely above in a comment to you.
Peace, sweetness.
Solars also rely on Silver...
average solar panel, will last for at least 20 years
Leo, peak oil means no one has the money to buy solars and thus, no one can make a monetary profit from producing them you fucking dipshit... We do not even have to reach any absolute physical energy production limits, but rather reach a point when the net energy returns on the extraction and consumption of energy resources reaches a point where by the energy value of money (purchasing power!!!) can no longer service the energy cost of producing goods and services. We have surpassed that point, it is over... What is it going to take to force people such as yourself to aknowledge energy as the motive force of economics? An empty stomach is my bet... If you have no understanding of thermodynamics, your words are nothing but subjective opinions... Not worth a pinch of shit...
Here, Here, very well said (except for calling Leo a "fucking dipshit", bad form) LOL
No, Leo is not a dipshit. He is merely a Quisling, a moral coward, an establishmet collaborator, a spineless surrender monkey to, and actual advocate of, blatant and systemic financial and monetary corruption, and a contemptible defender of everything evil and perverted in our "modern" economy. But definitely not a dipshit.
And if you think I am exaggerating or being excessively harsh, you have not paid close attention to the repugant and morally reprehensible commentary of Leo. He has repeatedly mocked those who decry the corruption, malfeasance and outright wholesale criminality inherent in our ever-expanding statist and centrally-planned financial and monetary systems, and has repeatedly and in no uncertain terms called for us all to just "get with the program" and "don't fight the Fed". I lack the words to express my disgust and utter revulsion for the kind of evil that Leo represents. Not just evil, but the willingness to voluntarily surrender to evil.
So akak - do you fill your gastank? Buy groceries? Flip a light switch in your house? Pay your bills through the postal service? Buy new tires when your old ones wear out? If you answer "yes" to any of these questions, you are no different from Leo. You decry the current system, yet you make use of it. You don't need Leo to call you to "get with the program". You are already getting with it if you do any of what I have listed above. If someone is not dragging you to do the things listed above, then you are willingly and voluntarily surrending to "evil" also. The only difference between you and Leo is that he has perhaps made money off of his investments over the last two years.
Leo is not evil; just pragmatic. Like you are. It's just that there seems to be a consistancy between what Leo says and what he does.
A very challenging response, and food for thought.
I will mull over your argument, Richard, and give it some hard thought.
Nevertheless, at least I, and most others here, do recognize that our system is both flawed and evil, whereas Leo could not seem to give a shit about the morality and sustainability of anything as long as those short-term profits continue flowing into his pockets. And yes, I do still consider him evil for that, and I do believe that there is a fundamental difference between his moral apathy and the righteous outrage expressed by myself and so many others here on ZeroHedge.
You are rage stripped of content. The covering you use to give a pretext to your rage is slipping. The other respondents to your comment on Leo see this as well. And by the way you are wrong on all counts and Leo is right. I hope you live a long life.
I don't mean to put words into Leo's mouth - but I think his point mainly is that we pretty much can't escape the system. If that is true, we might as well make some money off of it.
I'm not defending the system. It has many flaws. But I think Leo has a pragmatic point.
Peak Oil nearly guarantees a return to PM backed currencies.
Except there is no peak oil as long as there is Alaska and the California coat.
Sucks for the coastal real estate millionaires in Santa Barbara...
peak cheap oil if you like. Energy prices going up forever
EROEI, bitchez!
There is no such thing as peak "cheap" oil.
Most ignorant comment of this thread.
in the midst of fault lines ? drill for oil? you jest , surely
VELVELT WEEKEND bitchez
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=85q_hRnl3oI
I'm not certain we've hit "peak oil' so much as "Peak CHEAP Oil". Saw an analysis that there was 8 Billion bbls in the shale in North Dakota which could be profitably extracted above $60/bbl. And if the Gulf is any indication, there are huge reservoirs deep beneath the sea floors. And I'd be willing to bet Alaska has more oil than has been allowed to be drilled. I'm no geologist, but as with all things purported to be true, a filter of common sense is required. Global Warming's in the same boat. If Peak Oil and Global Warming are true it's in all of our interests to pay attention...but it needs to be proven beyond reasonable doubt.
I wonder about "Peak CHEAP Oil" as well, but not so much cheap in economic terms (those are human-made, and can be changed by humans) but cheap in energy terms. What if there's all this oil still to be drilled, but it costs more than a barrel's worth of energy to extract a barrel of the stuff?
Bingo! You are one of the very few now that understands physics 101 ha!
Ding ding ding! We have a winner!
That my man is the only question relevant to peak oil. When a barrel of oil cost a barrel and one drop to get, refine and sell in terms of energy, we have reached the end game. Milestones
What if as you drilled deeper the reservoirs became larger?
http://www.total.com/en/our-energies/oil/exploration-and-production/our-skills-and-expertise/deeply-buried-reservoirs-940844.html
“Why do some reservoirs have potential despite their deepness and what are the factors that helped preserve them? Geologists are the ones who will have to answer this tough but critical question, the only way to identify the best potential targets for very deep exploration.”
MSNBC on Chevron's Jack 2 discovered in 2006 (See video link in article, more realistic than the print page) Estimated production (as of 2006) was 2010.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14678206/
But here:
http://www.subseaiq.com/data/Project.aspx?project_id=340&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1
it suggests larger production for Jack 2 field coming on- stream in 2013 as part of further exploration and that field estimated at 500 MM boe on 2 drills may actually extend for more than 300 miles:
“Hydrocarbons on the field are located in the emerging Lower Tertiary Trend, deposited about 65 million years ago more than 20,000 feet (609 meters) under the seabed. The MMS reports that the formation is "an exciting new trend," adding that the area could extend across as many as 300 miles (483 kilometers) and significantly increase reserves. Although field development plans have not been released, development solutions have been leaning toward FPSO/FSO production in conjunction with St. Malo nearby. Production is expected to commence in 2013.”
Notice they say 'deposited' and not 'formed' or 'created'.
My, those fossil fools get around don't they?
Oil prices are high only because of OPEC restricting supply.
Peak oil is a scam. The earth is unimaginably far away from "peak oil".
Yes abiotic oil is real. If you doubt abiotic oil, the following questions need to be answered:
1. Why are the deepest oil and gas fields the most productive?
2. Why are there high amounts of Helium 3 and Helium 4 in the deepest gas fields?
3. Why are the Russians the only country to go over 30,000 feet in obtaining gas and oil?
4. Where did the hydrocarbons for life come from originally? Dead alien plants and animals?
5. Why in the case of Bakersfield and other fields constantly drilled deeper to find new formations below currently productive deposits?
6. Why is oil and gas that are lighter than water found in deposits below water bearing formations?
Answer those, and you might convince me that peak oil is around the corner. Until then, I will believe that Peak Oil is a conspiracy of a cartel. Oh, wait, OPEC is a cartel.
We're on the same page dude. Read my other comments on this thread or search my comments on peak oil.
My post here is a good summary (and check out the second last link below my comment #563439 (page 2)...the science is undeniable)
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-peak-denial-about-peak-oil#c...
Wouldn't it be a hoot if there was no peak oil.
Think about it. They make us build a fossil fuel world. Give us the technology and science of first steam power and then internal combustion engines.
Then they use the oil to grab all the gold. Isn't it weird how the IMF and US seem to get their ass involved with war in oily places. Once the oil has soaked up all the gold on the planet. Then surprise we need honest money gold and oh there's alot more oil than we thought.
It's like one of those horsey rides in front of the grocery store. Only this one sucks up 400 oz good delivery bars. That has to be it. The only way to control everyone is to make them compete with the DEAD as an energy source.
I don't think you have very much knowledge about this matter.
The deeper you go, the higher the temperature. Fields are reported as "oil and natural gas", or "barrels of oil equivalent".
The higher the temperature, the less oil and the more gas.
500 horsepower tractors don't run on natural gas and never will.
Could you maybe try to hook one on crystal ethane or crystal propane? Just as an experiment. In case we run out of crystal methane.
*The deeper you go, the higher the temperature and the pressure*
There. Fixed it for you.
This is just some of the dumbest shit ever.
The most productive fields are near the surface. If you don't know that, then you have no business even having an opinion, much less speaking it.
The US peaked in 1970, idiot.
When are you going to grow up and quit trying to be the high priest of loud mouths?
Your opinion is not the end of all debate. You don't know half as much as you want everyone to believe.
I know nothing. Satisfied? All sides have some substance. We will see when we see. Then if you are right you can jump up and down and hoot and get a Nobel Prize and your own nuclear powered yacht and maybe buy an island.
Nastiness is not an argument, only an affectation to bolster a deficiency in self-confidence.
While I don't approve of "ugly comments", I also have great contempt for willful ignorance. To claim you know nothing, than to state all sides have substance demonstrates a serious flaw in your logic.... Please forgive me for being crude, but get off you lazy butt do a little more research and educate yourself on this issue THEN please do come and criticize your fellow bloggers. Sometimes "high priest of loud mouths" are required motivate people.
Allow me to suggest two very good starting points!!!!!!
http://www.iier.ch/
http://www.theoildrum.com/
It has been my life experience that most people have more respect of a competent son of a bitch than a ignorant nice guy!