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Guest Post: Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think
Submitted by Chris Martenson
Prediction: Things Will Unravel Faster Than You Think
By my analysis, we are not yet on the final path to recovery, and
there are one or more financial 'breaks' coming in the future.
Underlying structural weaknesses have not been resolved, and the
kick-the-can-down-the-road plan is going to encounter a hard wall in the
not-too-distant future. When the next moment of discontinuity finally
arrives, events will unfold much more rapidly than most people expect.
My work centers on figuring out which macro trends are in play and
then helping people to adjust accordingly. Based on trends in fiscal
and monetary policy, I began advising accumulation of gold and silver in
2003 and 2004. I shorted homebuilder stocks beginning in 2006 and
ending in 2008. These were not ‘great' calls; they were simply spotting
trends in play, one beginning and one certain to end, and then taking
appropriate actions based on those trends.
We happen to live in a non-linear world; a core concept of the Crash Course.
But far too many people expect events to unfold in a more or less
orderly manner, with plenty of time to adjust along the way. In other
words, linearly. The world does not always cooperate, and my concern
rests on the observation that we still face the convergence of multiple
trends, each of which alone has the power to permanently transform our economic landscape and standards of living.
Three such trends (out of the many I track) that will shape our immediate future are:
- Peak Oil
- Sovereign insolvency
- Currency debasement
Individually, these worry me quite a bit; collectively, they have my full attention.
History suggests that instead of a nice smooth line heading either up
or down, markets have a pronounced habit of jolting rather suddenly
into a new orbit, either higher or lower. Social moods are steady for
long periods, and then they shift. This is what we should train
ourselves to expect.
No smooth lines between points A and B; instead, long periods of
quiet, followed by short bursts of reformation and volatility. Periods
of market equilibrium, followed by Minsky moments.
In the language of the evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, we
live in a system governed by the rules of "punctuated equilibrium."
Complex Systems
Our economy is a complex system. The key feature of such systems is
that they are inherently unpredictable with respect to the timing and
severity of specific events. For the uninitiated, they can look
enormously fragile and prone to flying apart at any minute; for the
seasoned observer, there is an appreciation that the immense inertia of
the economic system will almost always delay and dampen the eventual
adjustments.
Like everybody else, I have no idea exactly what’s going to happen, or precisely when. Anybody who says they do know
should be greeted with a furrowed brow and a frown of suspicion. As
my long-time readers know, I prefer to assess the risks and then take
steps to mitigate those risks based on likelihood and impact.
Which means that although we cannot predict the size (exactly how much) or the timing (precisely when) of economic shifts or world-changing events, we can certainly understand the risks and the dimensions of what
might happen. Just as we cannot predict when an avalanche will
release from steep slope, or even where or how big it will be, we can
readily predict that constant snowfall coupled with the right
temperature conditions will lead to an avalanche sooner or later, and
more likely in this gully than that one. Given certain conditions, we
might expect one that is larger or smaller than normal. Although we
don't know exactly when or how much, we do know that when snow
accumulates, so do the risks of more frequent and/or larger avalanches.
Such is the nature of complex systems. While inherently
unpredictable, they can still be described. The most important
description of any complex system is that it owes its order and
complexity to the constant flow of energy through it. Complex systems
require inputs. This is one way in which we can understand them.
Given this view, one easy "prediction" is that an economy without
increasing energy flows running through it will stagnate. To take this
further, an economy that is being starved of energy becomes simpler in
the process -- meaning fewer jobs, less items produced, and a reduced
capacity to support extraneous functions.
Accepting "What Is"
The most important part of this story is getting our minds to accept
reality without our passionate beliefs interfering. By ‘beliefs’ I
mean statements like these:
- “Things always get better and are never as bad as they seem.”
- “If Peak Oil were ‘real,’ I would be hearing about it from my trusted sources.”
- “Dwelling on the negative is self-fulfilling.”
While each of these things might be true, they also might be false
and therefore misleading, especially during periods of transition. Our
job is to remain as dispassionate and logical as possible.
Let's now examine more closely the three main events that are
converging -- Peak Oil, sovereign insolvency, and currency debasement --
using as much logic as we can muster.
Peak Oil
Peak Oil is now a matter of open inquiry and debate at the highest
levels of industry and government. Recent reports by Lloyd's of London,
the US Department of Defense, the UK industry taskforce on Peak Oil,
Honda, and the German military are evidence of this. But when I say
“debate,” I am not referring to disagreement over whether or not Peak
Oil is real, only when it will finally arrive. The emerging consensus
is that oil demand will outstrip supplies “soon,” within the next five
years and maybe as soon as two. So the correct questions are no longer,
"Is Peak Oil real?" and "Are governments aware?” but instead, "When
will demand outstrip supply?" and “What implications does this have for
me?”
It doesn't really matter when the actual peak arrives; we can leave
that to the ivory-tower types and those with a bent for analytical
precision. What matters is when we hit “peak exports.” My expectation
is that once it becomes fashionable among nation-states to finally
admit that Peak Oil is real and here to stay, one or more exporters
will withhold some or all of their product "for future generations" or
some other rationale (such as, "get a higher price"), which will rather
suddenly create a price spiral the likes of which we have not yet
seen.
What matters is an equal mixture of actual oil availability and
market perception. As soon as the scarcity meme gets going, things will
change very rapidly.
In short, it is time to accept that Peak Oil is real - and plan accordingly.
Sovereign Insolvency
Once we accept the imminent arrival of Peak Oil, then the issue of
sovereign insolvency jumps into the limelight. Why? Because the hopes
and dreams of the architects of the financial rescue entirely rest upon
the assumption that economic growth will resume. Without additional
supplies of oil, such growth will not be possible; in fact, we’ll be
doing really, really well if we can prevent the economy from
backsliding.
Virtually every single OECD country, due to outlandish pension and
entitlement programs, has total debt and liability loads that Arnaud Mares (of Morgan Stanley) pointed out
have resulted in a negative net worth for the governments of Germany,
France, Portugal, the US, the UK, Spain, Ireland, and Greece. And not
by just a little bit, but exceptionally so, ranging from more than 450%
of GDP in the case of Germany on the 'low' end to well over 1,500% of
GDP for Greece.
Such shortfalls cannot possibly be funded out of anything other than a
very, very bright economic future. Something on the order of
Industrial Age 2.0, fueled by some amazing new source of wealth.
Logically, how likely is that? Even if we could magically remove the
overhang of debt, what new technologies are on the horizon that could
offer the prospect of a brand new economic revival of this magnitude?
None that I am aware of.
In the US, the largest capital market and borrower, even the most
optimistic budget estimates foresee another decade of crushing deficits
that will grow the official deficit by some $9 trillion and the real
(i.e., “accrual” or “unofficial”) deficit by perhaps another $20 to $30
trillion, once we account for growth in liabilities. This is, without
question, an unsustainable trend.
It’s time to admit the obvious: Debts of these sorts cannot be
serviced, now or in the future. Expanding them further with fingers
firmly crossed in hopes of an enormous economic boom that will bail out
the system is a fool’s game. It is little different than doubling down
after receiving a bad hand in poker.
The unpleasant implication of various governments going deeper into
debt is that a string of sovereign defaults lies in the future. Due to
their interconnected borrowings and lendings, one may topple the next
like dominoes.
However, it is when we consider the impact of the widespread
realization of Peak Oil on the story of growth that the whole idea of
sovereign insolvency really assumes a much higher level of probability.
More on that later.
For now we should accept that there's almost no chance of growing out
from under these mountains of debts and other obligations. We must
move our attention to the shape, timing, and the severity of the
aftermath of the economic wreckage that will result from a series of
sovereign defaults.
Currency Wars
We could trot out a lot of charts here, examine much of history, and
make a very solid case that once a country breaches the 300%
debt/liability to GDP ratio, there's no recovery, only a future
containing some form of default (printing or outright).
In a recent post to my enrolled members, I wrote:
The currency wars have begun, and the implications to world stability
and wealth could not be more profound. Fortunately, all of my
long-time enrolled members are prepared for this outcome, which we've
been predicting here for some time.When pressed, the most predictable decision in all of history is to
print, print, print. So I can't take credit for a 'prediction' that
was just slightly bolder than 'predicting' which way a dropped anvil
will travel; down or up?The only problem is, widespread currency debasements will further
destabilize an already rickety global financial system where tens of
trillions of fiat dollars flow daily on the currency exchanges.
You can be nearly certain that every single country is seeking a path
to a weaker relative currency. The problem is obvious: Everybody
cannot simultaneously have a weaker currency. Nor can everybody have a
positive trade balance.
If a country or government cannot grow its way out from under its
obligations, then printing (a.k.a. currency debasement) takes on
additional allure. It is the "easy way out" and has lots of political
support in the home country. Besides the fact that it has already
started, we should consider a global program of currency debasement to
be a guaranteed feature of our economic future.
Conclusion (to Part I)
Three unsustainable trends or events have been identified here. They
are not independent, but they are interlocked to a very high degree.
At present I can find no support for the idea that the economy can
expand like it has in the past without increasing energy flows,
especially oil. All of the indications point to Peak Oil, or at least
"peak exports," happening within five years.
At that point, it will become widely recognized that most sovereign
debts and liabilities will not be able to be serviced by the miracle of
economic growth. Pressures to ease the pain of the resulting financial
turmoil and economic stagnation will grow, and currency debasement
will prove to be the preferred policy tool of choice.
Instead of unfolding in a nice, linear, straightforward manner, these
colliding events will happen quite rapidly and chaotically.
By mentally accepting that this proposition is not only possible, but
probable, we are free to make different choices and take actions that
can preserve and protect our wealth and mitigate our risks.
What changes in our actions and investment stances are prudent if we
assume that Peak Oil, sovereign insolvency, and currency debasement are
'locks' for the future?
I explore these questions in greater depth in Part II of this report (enrollment required)
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@ Travesty. You're hilarious. Too bad about your sense of humour tho
Keep up the good work
Let me guess, Earth Science, Chemistry and Physics weren't good to you were they?
And they were also not good to Thomas Gold and Freeman Dyson as well
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.07/gold_pr.html
http://www.scribd.com/doc/4848193/Methane-Generation-at-High-PT-NobelHer...
I'll take their company over yours any day
"...and significantly increase reserves"
When someone like this starts talking about increase in reserves and NEVER mentions flow rate, write him off.
Surprised the Bakken fields in North Dakota hasn't come up yet. , "Lots of Oil" which translates to 30,000-50,000 barrels a day.
With what? a possible "Peak" of 500,000 barrels per day?
Here's quiz for you, How rich would you feel, If said I just put 50 million dollars in your checking account? How about if I told you that you could have it but only allowed to take out $1000 a month.
You couldn't even "Live on that" Well that my friend is the difference between "Reserves" and "Flow Rate".
It doesn't really matter if you have "Millions" in your bank account, if you can only withdraw $500 a month.
Read about 20-30 articles from
www.dieoff.com
and about 50-500 from www.TheOilDrum.com
And talk Flow rate.
A couple points, World wide we were drawing 86 million barrels a day.
Just the US consumes 20 million+/- a day. We produce 4+/-.
Mexico is in terminal decline, Alaska Slope Terminal decline, North Sea Terminal decline...
Talk to me in Flow Rate not Reserves. Reserves mean nothing.
BTW, the world will NEVER pump more that 86+/- barrels a day again Ever. Peak is Past Tense. Listen to the Bob Hirsh recent interview. www.EnergyBulletin.com
Ha!
Energy Bulletin from The Post-Carbon Institute (LOL)...wow I wouldn't want to leap to any conclusions or anything...Kind of like the Galileo Update courtesy of Jesuit Collegio Romano
(You should really qualify the lack of bias of your sources more clearly)
oops
http://www.energybulletin.net/node/1516
http://nucleargreen.blogspot.com/2010/03/children-of-club-of-rome.html
http://www.green-agenda.com/globalrevolution.html
http://www.iaenvironment.org/conference/09/Richard_Heinberg.php
[snip]:
He is a Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute and is widely regarded as one of the world’s foremost Peak Oil educators. His monthly MuseLetter has been included in Utne Magazine’s annual list of Best Alternative Newsletters. He has written a regular column for the Ecologist magazine and has authored scores of essays and articles that have appeared in such journals as The American Prospect, Public Policy Research, Quarterly Review, Z Magazine, Resurgence, The Futurist, European Business Review, Earth Island Journal, Yes!, Pacific Ecologist, Wild Matters, The Proceedings of the Canadian Association of the Club of Rome,
That's the same Richard Heinberg who is a fellow of the The Post-Carbon Institute
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Heinberg
see his work...How Cuba Survived Peak Oil ...lol Welcome to your future....
Peak Oil based on shallow reserves is a fait accompli when those shallow reserves are structural traps of up-wellings located outside of the one place on the earth where the crust is shallowest and closest to the upper mantle where the abiotic theory (note I said theory and not potential post-carbon dogma or oil cartel mythology) suggests petroleum is produced.
Want to guess where that one place is?...You got it, The Middle East. A favourite tourist destination and camping site (Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia (oops 2001, not so much) Iran?... more weapons of mass destruction there?) of the global bankster's economic enforcer...the US MIC.
The military invasions and occupations have done more to reduce oil flow from Kuwait and Iraq than any Hubbert draw-down depletion.
Saddam threatened to sell oil on an energy bourse not denominated in in the bankster's ponzi notes, the USD and GBP, the only 2 acceptable currencies for that trade...that was his weapon of mass destruction. Iran has similarly threatened and is now undertaking such a venture...I guess we know where that is going.
Saudi Arabia was an invention of the Royal Dutch Shell company (with assistance of the British military as was Iran constituted by British Petroleum. These spots were underpinnings of the British Empire and by fiat currency the US in the 20th century. Tanks and jet fighters do not and will not ever run cheaply on electricity. Possession is nine tenths of the law and the possession is possibly the primary access to upper mantle petroleum generation.
We'll probably never know the truth for "national security reasons"... whose nation is that anyways?
Imagine if a drought had brought all the predators and prey to the last watering hole and that hole is spring fed? If the predator knew this he would seize control and convert to farming.
Welcome to the future of sustainable development...
+1. We will ALWAYS have access to oil, but nowhere near enough to burn it up driving. It will be used for its myriad of other uses.
And what, you're going to get down on your hands and knees and dig it out? Ha!
For shit sakes, people, it takes ENERGY to get energy! Fucking take the time to learn EROEI! It's simple physics! (not some abiotic incense-burning shit)
Yes, because the 1,000 horsepower diesel and the cracking of the oil take so much energy... NOT
1 billion barrels == 11.74 day supply...
I thought 2010 consumption world wide was 1 billion barrels = 13 days supply?
About 80 million barrels of oil a day.
84 million Hulk. Not correcting you, just supporting your point.
Googling (because I thought 86 was the absolute peak), I have seen a source that says 72 and one that says 84. Interesting.
Correct. Just re-calculated and my 11.74 day figure is based
on 85 million barrels a day. Remembered 11.74, but not 85 million, go figure!
I was taught a barrel of oil is 55 gallons. And now it's 42 gallons or 40 gallons I keep seeing. They keep futzing with the unit of measures. They don't ship it in barrels and oil was only used to run lanterns and save a bunch of whales from being slaughtered for the LONGEST time.
And I've always enjoyed the difference between a US gallon and an Imperial gallon and how US never went to metric system while EU did. As long as there's a non native system of measurement to confuse things.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrel#Oil_storage
Anyway 85 million gallons of oil refines down to about 40 million gallons of gasoline a day which is 0.0057 gallons a day per person. Which makes a 17 gallon per day per army guy addiction pretty severe and 5000 gallons to fly your friends to the super bowl ceo a pretty big spender. With 2 gallons per year per person. My personal 30 to 300 gallons a year usage isn't too bad. If I had a 40 mile per gallon car instead of a 25 mile per gallon car my peak usage for business travel wouldn't have been nearly as much.
I think I can safely say I'm not much of a problem here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ze4Rust--8I
Me like Hulk. Me ask Hulk not smash. And me ask Hulk not divide reserves by consumption rate to get lifespan.
Me request that in future, Hulk express rate of production from field to get proportion of total rate that field produces.
Me ask this because morons do calculation like Hulk just did and think that new discoveries add "extra time" in terms of years before mankind face problem. Me repeat that production rate all that matters.
Hulk know consumption rate 84.1 million barrels per day. Hulk divide a billion barrels of oil by daily consumption rate to demonstrate the daily rate at which the world consumes a billion barrels of oil, to give puny humans perspective. Hulk now SMASH! Hulk also understand exponential growth. If Hulk for over 4 hours, have to see doctor immediately...
THEY say that if California would pump, instead of relying on the GOM,
they could balance their budget with a $1 p/B tax. I guess Nancy P. will just take "your" money and keep "her" beach nice and clean.
There's NO SUCH THING as fucking peak CHEAP oil!
lol, so according to you, we'll have peak production, but the cost isn't going to go up?
Seems a bit contradictory to me. Or maybe just you showing more reasonless bluster.
WTF?
At what point did I EVER say that after peak production that price would not go up?
You don't fucking understand what a PEAK is, do you?
It's not the "END," ok? It's an inflection point!
Does a mountain END when you hit its peak? JFC.
I had an investment banker tell me once that the best thing about hitting your head on a concrete wall is when you stop..... but please don't stop I am enjoying banter... better you than me.
Any economy is a complex system. And the key future is that it could be both predictable and unpredictable at various times. However the kicker is, the change in between order and disorder, could be instantaneous and impossible to predict. Hence the possibility of any economic system and concept that worked before to stop working is ever present. Wonderful huh? It actually is, because where there is the constant change, there is an opportunity to innovate and improve.
OT, or not you decide....
BREAKING NEWS: The United States Mint has officially raised their wholesale pricing above spot on American Silver Eagles to all authorized dealers from $1.50 to $2.00, an increase of a whopping 33%. This news comes on the heels of a significant silver spot price rally over the last month to a new thirty year record over $22 per ounce. The impact of this news is significant and has already affected dealer pricing across the country within hours, as prices on Silver American Eagles have jumped over $0.50/oz industry wide.
I am not crazy about this source, however.
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23130.html
Well the price is up at Tulving and they claim a price increase as of 9/30 so something happened. Wonder if others will follow suit?
I think most or all of the coin dealers across the board are reporting this premium increase.
from the US Mint website,
http://catalog.usmint.gov/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/CategoryDisplay?lang...
Your right, and it's on Eagles,but there are tons of other choices wthout getting nailed for 33% over SPOT.
Sounds like the JU S Mint, is taking lessons from the administration, this will definitely slow sales of Eagles, and drive Premiums up on all other Silver rounds.
Which, to be really cynical,LOL, is a cover for JPM's ass.
Not gonna work though,people are starting to see the price difference in Gold and Slvr, and are buying the least expensive w/ with the most upside percentage wise per $ invested. IMHO
"All of the indications point to Peak Oil, or at least "peak exports," happening within five years."
Too late. It has already happened.
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/7001
Peak Oil is like Climate Control, Bullshit.
We have Peak Oil,simply because our Socialist, and Green Peace assholes are , and have not been letting us develop our natural resources.
IF push came to shove, we have enough KNOWN reserves to take care of all our current needs............just being stopped from development.
We have not had ONE new refinery built in this country in at least 30 years. Why not?,Green Wieners.
We agree about Climate...whatever they are calling it nowadays. However, for the sake of debate Dos Zap, peak oil is not about running out of oil. There will be no last drop of oil. It is about production levels. In 2005, oil production was at 73 million b/d. Today it is at 73 million b/d. This is evidence of a plateau in oil production. We have picked the low hanging fruit; we have not discovered a super reserve for a very long time; the US peaked in the early 20th century, Russia peaked in '89, and it appears that Saud has peaked this year. I know we have a reserve in Alaska untapped, but that is it for the whole earth. If technology advances it is most likely that we will deplete the reserves faster. The GOM is evidence that we can not get to the reserves far out in the water. Once production costs begin to increase at a rapid rate, then it is game over. Our reserves, considering our consumption, is pathetic. Other fossil fuels have very low EROEIs and will not manage to pick up the slack from oil's departure as the lifeblood of our economy. That is a basic summery for peak oil theory.
I was a typin away and proofing and you got that off!!! Like a Faustian primate said to me earlier>>>Great minds.
We here all come together like Voltron, and TD is the head.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nBMSRtCrIQ
.... for the older generations and all. :)
READY!
Incorrect, there is a mega reserve under the soil smack in the middle us (Western NE, Northeastern CO, etc).
It's bigger than Saudi Bullshitabia.
Please continue......please give me a report of your Super Reseve. Specs and what not.
Do your own homework, cross reference it with residential prices (which are goin anywhere but down). It's nomad land, but undevelped domestic crude a plenty. Check out Niobrara Shale for a google search near you.
Shale?? Uh oh. I want oil!
want oil? apparently Haiti has some.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17293
phew! luckily the US got 20k troops down there immediately, eh. . . and really, what's the US 4th largest embassy in the world doing in. . . Haiti?
http://www.sott.net/articles/show/202048-What-was-the-4th-largest-US-emb...
We have a Bingo!
OK, so we invade Iraq and Afghanistan, spend a trillion to secure the oil fields there so the Chinese can get oil contracts with both countries ( they do pay us back by buying our t-bills). But we station 20k troops in Haiti and do nothing to extract the oil there? Hmm. Someone in this evil cabal is asleep at the wheel. We shut down our oil exploration in the GoM but give loan guarantees to Mexico to explore there. We say that deep water oil drilling is too dangerous but give Petrobas (Brazil) billions in loan guarantees to drill of their shore. Wow. What a bunch of morons.
. . . just guardin' the goods for now. . . did I mention a huge-ass embassy?
it's all about the(ir) future.
Lennon Hendrix little dick, you don't know shit about oil.
You didn't even bother to check. Troll.
Don't ever comment on my posts again.
How big is my dick? Can I comment on your posts? Please, please, please?
If you were sincere, and you know, because Lennon Hendrix is such a moron, you would post something (even a wiki something) so that the rest of us could easily decide for ourselves that LennonHendrix is full of shit. Earlier, there was a debate about oil production. I looked it up and was surprised to find that two really different numbers are used. One can see why the debate occured, there are different numbers reported. The point is my number I had in my head was WRONG, and there was more to the issue than I THOUGHT. I corrected myself by looking it up for myself.
Quite frankly you made a claim about oil that sounded outrageous. It does fall on you to prove it. You may be right. I am open to that. But you are the one here who looks like a "little dick" who is not "bothering to check" and a "Troll."
And what cha' gonna' do if he does comment on your posts, huh? Melt down? Have a hissy? Get him thrown off? That's just funny shit.
MUCH respect.
for you to admit that you needed to learn and were actually wrong...wow, very rare in this day and age.
As you do learn, you will very quickly begin to identify the people who are experts in this topic and start to see just how asininedly stupid those who aren't are. It's really an eye opener.
The numbers to look at for production are C&C and all-liquids. C&C would be expected to peak and decline prior to the latter, and so far, the production curves show this.
You should go hawaii for a vacation.
http://seminars.torontoghosts.org/blog/media/blogs/new/happyspider.jpg
I am replying to this thread not in any way shape or form to engage any conversation with you. This disclaimer comes because that is the purpose of The Site, to engage. So, that being said, my comment contained the word please. I was being polite. I do research, have read many books and listened to many lectures on both sides of the subject, but am no pro when it comes to oil. I understand the concepts, but do not know all of the material. So for me to ask for a reference to fields that I have not heard of is normal, my MO, how I learn, what have you.
Comments such as the one I am replying too are so insanely foolish I wonder how people do not scrub themselves to death in the shower. You sited nothing. You gave me nothing. You commented on MY post, and then make a mockery of any formal engagement. You do not understand purpose. Purpose lies in not only the expose, but the path. We are here to learn, grow, and appreciate what we have before it is gone. That includes every heartbeat you can muster. Turning personal gives no gains, to you or others. The point of Fight Club is not to look like some uberman, but to become what you were meant to be. Do you ever look at the moon? The night sky? Do you ever wonder what the heavens hold? What the truth is? The ultimate, and unattainable? Do you know the bottom? Is that why you are here? Because you have learned the final end of our destiny? Awesome. So spill it. Give it to us. Gather your guts, get it together, and play the game with us. We are here. We are playing. And we have rules. The rules are light, so we may have many intersections. Yet still, we have rules. Nothing fascist; we care not if you insult, but we care not for your insults. If you do not like the fact that I asked, nicely, for your intell, well, why do you think I am here? Why do you think any of us are here? To stroke ourselves? To stoke our minds. To light our fires. To become one with our destiny. Otherwise, how do we rally? How do we make it so? How do we perpetuate the forthcoming? How do we know? I ask nothing of you, or from you, with pertinence. I will get my answers, in due time. All things in due time.
The best writing exposes the raw soul of an individual.
Widowmaker said: "It's bigger than Saudi Bullshitabia."
There's plenty of bullshit here, that's for sure. The "oil" there is oil shale, and despite decades of research it still sits there undeveloped. Do you know why? Have you done any research? It's because it takes more energy for oil shale to give up its kerogen (it's NOT oil, it's sort of an oil precursor) than it will produce when processed and used. Same with the oil locked into the Bakken Formation in the upper Midwest. Please, if youre going to trot out fairy tales, find some that haven't been debunked so many times that they're boring to listen to.
As soon as you said Bakken I know you are full of shit and cutting and pasting with no perspective of your own. The only fairy tale is you acting like an internet oil cowboy.
The funny part of you idiots is that you think this stuff is published or covered by MSM. The question was where, not how. Yes shale is deeper (much) and more difficult, but the formations I'm talking about are "easiest of the difficult," of which the Niobrara formation is not only promising but producing.
Peak Oil is complete and utter bullshit, fabricated on price fixing and misinformation from fraud street colluding with sand-nigs. There is oil a plenty, but it's not going to jump in your tank.
Perhaps you might do actual research and follow the money and paperwork, which are both increasing along with real flow. I'm cashing checks for $224/acre/mo, but I'll see if I can find a pretty report to illustrate material flow rates and see about posting it somewhere to validate the claims.
As soon as you said "sand-nigs" I knew you were full of shit and just spouting what you want to believe rather than what is real. Western Nebraska has pumped oil for decades, lots of little stripper wells now that start and stop depending on oil prices. Most of those fields peaked long ago and just keep diddling along on two or three barrels a day from those rocker arm wells. Get back to us when someone produces profitable oil from those kerogen shale formations you keep touting.
"I'm cashing checks for $224/acre/mo,"
a man with skin in the game sees the world in a way that keeps his skin from boiling.
This!
It seems clear that oil creation is a process that is ongoing, but Earth is only kicking up so much at a time (Old wells having new oil after years of being closed with a different composition). So we keep increasing our demands, but Earth only makes so much at a time, and we can go get the reserves but when they are gone we have to wait for fresh oil to show up.
As far as "new oil" being created, that idea is a no-go on any human timescale. You would be talking about a geological process that takes literally millions of years, so for all practical purposes, oil is indeed a finite and nonrenewable resource.
The so-called "replenishment" of decades-old oil wells is really nothing of the kind, but merely the "leakage" of pre-existing and formerly unrecovered petroleum seeping into previously depleted formations. One must understand that petroleum deposits are NOT like giant underground caverns of oil that are or can be sucked dry, but are much more like rock-sponges that are permeated to various degrees by petroleum --- it exists, not in pure pools, but in the interstices of various kinds of rock. As such, NO deposit can ever be fully pumped dry, and some previously unrecovered oil can, under some circumstances, be recovered at a later date as it creeps and moves into areas previously pumped. This is in no way a sign of "abiotic creation" of petroleum, but merely a reflection of the inevitiable inability to recover 100% of any given reserve.
I have a piece of my great-grandparents' "oil deposit" here on a shelf. It looks pretty much like a dirty, greasy rock --- because that is exactly what most oil deposits actually are.
No idea about the time scale, I just know the myth of it being dead dinos is a crock. The amount of oil already pumped shows that. If it's millions of years it's millions of years. We haven't be serious about energy anyway. If we had been there would have been more people looking at nuke plants. Palo Verde was the last one built in the States IIRC and built a fair bit before I was born. There has been little interest in finding alternatives to oil despite the yelling about it. Solar is a pipe dream and wind is a joke. Nuclear is about he best option and that has been all but totally stonewalled in the US.
Nuclear energy is still at best a stop-gap measure on any longterm basis, and the storage problem of the waste is not a trivial one.
Absent some unforeseeable and radically new fundamental developments or discoveries, such as the utilization of zero-point energy, in the long term there are really only two possible alternatives: solar, and nuclear fusion. Wind and biomass are really just derivatives of solar (as is petroleum and natural gas).
No energy solution is perfect. Nuclear would give us a lot more time to find the next big thing. We wither will or we won't. If we do then a whole new avenue of opportunity opens, if we don't then maybe back to the iron age while we wait to try again. Fusion or bust :)
I don't think storage is that big of a deal. With the proper reactors the amount is small. Granted it's a nightmare toxic brew that will basically never go away but at least there is no much of it so building a proper containment area should be quite feasible.
It is my understanding that spent nuclear fuel rods are no more RA than the ore they came from and burying them back in stable geological formations should be no problem.
BTW, 30 years ago I lived in Jacksonville , FL home of OSP (a subsiderary of Westinghose). They had developed a nuclear power plant model and tried to sell it to the local PTB, instead they built coal and China bought the largest overhead crain in the world when OSP folded and shipped back to China.
The problems with nuclear waste lie not so much in its gross level of radioactivity so much as it does in the particular kinds of radioactivity inherent in it, as well as in the chemistry and half-lives of all the various isotopes involved. For example, most isotopes of plutonium are not highly radioactive per se (you could hold a chunk of it in your hand and only feel mild heat, and do be in great peril), but even nanogram amounts, dispersed into the atmosphere or biosphere, are incredibly carcinogenic, and have very long half-lives, some on the order of many millions of years. Should any significant amount of plutonium (say, a few tens of pounds) somehow be dispersed throughout the world in a very finely divided form, it would spell the end of humanity and probably most higher forms of life as well.
Likewise, the most common form of uranium, U-238, is only weakly radioactive, but as an alpha-emitter it is also highly destructive when taken internally in even very small amounts, being very damaging to DNA and carcinogenic as well. And it has a half-life of 4.5 billion years, meaning if it were to become introduced into the biosphere, its effects would be felt for many, many years, millenia perhaps, until it was effectively sequestered into the deep soil or ocean depths.
I use only those common elements and isotopes to make the point; actually, there would be a number of different elements and many different isotopes to take into account.
ahhh depleted uranium, which is used extensively by military, denied for decades, though recently starting to admit. . . can't have all those seriously ill people making claims, eh.
yugoslavia, iraq, afghanistan, and more - all half-lives for those left living. . .
The GOM is evidence that we can not get to the reserves far out in the water.
Sorry but this defeatist attitude smacks of gullible subscription to pre-ordained dogma.
"Peak Oil is real because the Earth is flat...no wait! it's flat AND the centre of the universe."
What next Cardinal? Please provide evidence that Saud has peaked (LOL) or that the data provided by the mega oil cartels like BP are any more reliable than currency policy from the FED (a corporate cousin BTW). The data is either nonexistent, spuriously anecdotal or bathed in proprietary stealth, which is the nature of the business. It's a bad religion.
Unfortunately, trying to accurately opine on peak oil based on industry/global finance opinion is bit like trying to consider having Al Gore sell you a polar bear...sure it's cute and all but where's the bear going to live?
the saudi's, are pumping a shitload of seawater, into their fields, to maintain production levels. thats what you do when a field, is becoming depleted.
link please
(p.s. I didn't junk you)
DosZap, you know I like you, so this ain't about that, okay?
FIGHT CLUB!!!!
They have not built any new refineries because the money invested is not going to give them the return they need. They know about peak (cheap) oil. ROEI (Return on energy invested) is dwindling. The easy to get stuff is gone. They have to put more and more money into retrieving less and less oil, all the time. For example the tar sands. More environmental destruction too.
Query: If we have these reserves (and we may, who am I to say), we have enough to take care of our needs for how long? Alaska is about 18 months worth. Us oil production peaked in 1971-72.
The whole idea behind peak oil is that oil use started at a period of time when we had a much smaller population and less oil dependent technology. As it goes up the curve it plateaus and could sit there for a little while, then as more people are on the planet and more technology comes on-line, there will be a radical drop off on the other side of the curve that will be steep because oil use will be going up while production is flat or even falling off. We have been flat for a bit.
I respectfully submit that you are very wise and very prepared. I do this and risk some ire because I hate to see you dropping the ball on this issue. A rapid fall in availability of the stuff fucks everything, hard.
It's all about downstream cartelization, some have the capital to drill rigs and deliver upstream...others are slightly less capitalized and focus elsewhere:
2005 -
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_33/b3997079.htm
2010 -
http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2257480/branson-warns-o...
The problem with trying to effectively analyze this industry is that it is so secretive by nature and without a clear understanding of the current ownership structure that potentially crosses many global financial ownership interests that have a vested stake in perpetuating monopolies by stealth you are left with having to look back to recorded history for precedents by many of the current usual suspects:
http://www.linfo.org/standardoil.html
"Since its earliest days, the U.S. oil industry had been well aware of the power of monopoly and its huge profits potential. Although the seemingly erratic fluctuations of oil prices had convinced many refiners to try to restrict output in a joint effort, these attempts never lasted long because the incentives to cheat were so great. However, the unified organization of the trust finally made the disciplined regulation of production levels possible, thereby giving its owners complete control over prices."
"The media attack on monopolies and corruption reached a peak from 1902 to 1912, which is often referred to as the muckraking decade. That period saw the publication of more than a thousand articles providing detailed accounts of the economic and political corruption caused by big business, especially the trusts. This surge was facilitated by advances in printing technology, including the development of the halftone process, which made possible the low cost production of profusely illustrated magazines that were affordable (and irresistible) to the masses." Sound familiar?...Cue 1913
"Conclusion
The trusts presented a superficially strong case for their activities. They claimed that their consolidation actually provided a net benefit to the public by reducing costs, and thus prices, through the elimination of duplicate and inefficient facilities and through economies of scale attained from larger volumes of output. They also contended that the greater volumes of output made it possible to finance larger and more efficient production facilities and to devote more funds to research and development.
Although there was some truth to these arguments, at least initially, they failed to take into consideration the huge detrimental effects on the economy and society resulting from the long-term (four decades in the case of Standard Oil) absence of free market competition (i.e., the market mechanism). Monopolies often do reduce the prices and improve the quality of their products in their early stages when they are trying to eliminate the competition. But history has proven time and time again that they lose their incentive to do so after the competition gets exterminated; in fact, they then have a very powerful incentive to increase prices and reduce quality. Free competition, in contrast, serves to minimize prices and maximize quality over the long run, and it thus results, at least in many respects, in what economists term an efficient allocation of resources for the economy as a whole."
Remember, the average consumer is THE BIGGEST competitor IF 'Peak Oil' is a myth and and if he has the resources to prove it and make markets free. Without objective data and reliable independent scientists, the concept of 'myth' or 'fact', for that matter, is irrelevant.
No matter what the eco-green oiligarchs like Branson or BP say, oil will still be around. It has to, solar and wind is just too inefficient. You're just going to be paying waaay more for it. Unless of course they can sell you on nuclear...wait, that's Plan B when Plan A (solar, wind and urine spectacularly fails)...and guess who's going to be selling you the juice for your legislated plug-in hybrid....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p009nmc5/One_Planet_Richard_Branson...
Richard Branson tells us about clean fuels, the need for nuclear and a life changing bath [Branson and "New Clear" energy to whip the problem of carbon...Not Virgin Nuclear @24:20 in the clip]
Duh, what is it that refineries would refine without cheap oil? Refineries do not create oil if that's what you mean. If we had any sources of cheap oil on land or shallow offshore oil it would be drilled. What part of we are mining crude oil in Canada at a break even $68 a barrel do you not understand?
Cheap oil has nothing to do with it.
There is no OIL that needs more refining capacity. The types of refineries we have are SUFFICIENT for the type of oil we can refine.
Listen, there is not ONE type of crude oil out there. Most of the recent oil discovered and being pumped, from KSA, Venezuela, etc., is of the heavy sour flavor. Venzuelan Orinoco crude looks like freaking taffy; it's not lightsweet black gold like Jed Clampett shot out of his ranch before moving to Beverly.
There is NO growth, only DECLINE in lightsweet on the world market, consequently, there exists no real need to increase refining capacity of that. Our Louisiana refineries are incidentally built to handle Orinoco crap which is why Chavez's bluster is laughable; there's literally no place on earth that crap can be refined other than on the Gulf Coast.
But the oil majors know their own real reserves and production expectations and they DO NOT forecast more oil production needing to be refined. Even if there is surplus crude, they expect a DECLINE in production any minute now if it has not already happened. At that point, there would end up being slack refinery capacity and a consequent collapse in refining margins. It makes no economic sense to build capacity for something that won't exist.
There is no conspiracy whatsoever, people need to understand this. The oil majors and refiners KNOW the crude and production situation even if they don't announce it to everyone and cause a panic or share price drop. They have to maintain the illusion and keep the dream alive.
>Peak CHEAP Oil - different thing.
"we have enough KNOWN reserves to take care of all our current needs"
What the FUCK does That mean? This is a one-dimensional statement!
It's like saying that at one point in time we could have enough oil to meet that moment in time's needs. Well, fine, but what about the next moment? And the next?
And all the while, contrary to the abiotic nutjobs out there, reserves deplete (OK, "deplete faster than can be replentished" [yeah, good luck waiting for nature's oil drums to fill back up]).
Then there's the little issue of insufficient supplies to provide for growth. You know, "growth," that which actually perpetuates everything, that which, if not existent, will wipe out this grow-or-die system that we're running on.
Before you spend the rest of your life sounding like a one-dimensional thinker I suggest you learn about exponential growth (Dr. Albert Bartlett's presentation is the best IMHO).
This thread got long before I encountered it to comment, not that I am confident that what I have to say is vital to be heard.
But for you, there, DosZap, you don't understand the problem. Reserves are not the issue. Production is the issue. Iraq is slated to announce a tripling of reserves on Monday, and they'll do this in genius fashion without use of any seismic data or exploratory drilling. They'll use a pencil to discover them.
But their production is less than 3 million bpd. They have announced they will get to 13 mbpd in 4 years. There is no way in hell that will happen. It takes years to import pipes and lay them and test them and connect them to whatever got drilled. And as they do all that and announce how much new production will come from the new wells, they then have to subtract from it the decline in production from present wells, which will be emptying during those 4 years.
That defines the future, particularly Russia's. They are drilling 5,000, repeat, 5000 wells per year in old fields in a desperate attempt to hold production up in those fields while their new fields in Siberia get their pipes laid and pumps installed and start to slowly come online. By the time they do, the old fields will be dead.
exponential increase in the number of wells to keep production flat, scary shit.
Yes, all those puny, weak oil companies that are constantly cowed by environmentalists, they have been prevented from opening dozens, no hundreds, of huge oil refineries so they can refine all that glut of crude that's building up at our borders! Yes, you figured it out!
Did the thought occur to you that maybe they aren't investing in refineries because they know that they won't be needing greater refining capacity in the future???
...yes, Why? Because there will be an actual physical shortage of crude supply or that downstream monopolies on refining hydrocarbon products ensures that a physical abundance of crude is irrelevant to the profits of the vertically integrated oiligarchs whose prices will keep pace with the inflation of the ponzi USD and GBP currencies that float this commodity?
The threat to TPTB is that technology, science and innovation is still not foreign in those mind spaces that they do not control namely, the last fringes of free markets outside their propaganda sphere. This technology will potentially unleash oil at depth onto markets where their oil bourses will no longer be able to dictate the central banking ponzi scheme currency du jour (viz. the USD and GBP) and hence a major support on the house of cards falls away...thus we have 'global warming' and the necessary carbon tax that will underpin the global Bancorp currency from the UN/IMF to ensure preservation of the Globalist Elite's continuing hegemony on collectivist energy control and resource/industrial development.
Green is the new red.
stupidest.comment.ever
The problem is that there are at least 5x as many idiots like you as who understand peak oil.
Nice try, but all the evidence is against you. What "known reserves"? You mean like the Bakken Formation in the upper Midwest or the shale oil in Colorado? Nice try, but neither of those can produce oil at profitable levels, on either economic or energy return terms. The GOM disaster, the new superdeep Brazilian finds, the Arctic Ocean explorations all show just how desperate oil companies are getting to find and exploit the remaining dribs and drabs. The United States peaked in oil production in 1972, Mexico peaked four years ago, Indonesia and other former oil exporters are now net importers because their oil reserves are tapped out. Saudi Arabia probably peaked two years ago. It's all downhill from here unfortunately. Denial of reality won't change any of that.
.
pretty bad report
All three themes are reasonable. Brief note on each:
1) Energy shortages (Peak Oil) are the result of a concerted effort to prevent development of "real" energy resorces (i.e. economically and technically feasible). These are nuclear, natural gas, coal and oil. We have plenty of energy, assuming we substitute the plentiful (nuclear and coal, lesser extent NG) for the scarce (oil). Government and the enviro-nazis have set us up for this problem. However, once the crunch comes, it will take 5 years to fix this (assuming we have sensible energy policies).
2) Soverign default is inevitable unless we start today to cut back on government handouts and waste. Probably a 5 year fix if we start now (which we won't). Currency debasement isn't necessary but will probably be chosen by our idiot government/FED elites.
3) Currency wars have started. Use of tariffs would hurt consumers (and cause China to collapse) but is probably a much better tool than currency debasement.
If there is any justice (which there isn't much of), our current government and other elites will be destroyed. As it is, the middle class is more likely to be destroyed.
") Energy shortages (Peak Oil) are the result of a concerted effort to prevent development of "real" energy resorces (i.e. economically and technically feasible). These are nuclear, natural gas, coal and oil. We have plenty of energy, assuming we substitute the plentiful (nuclear and coal, lesser extent NG) for the scarce (oil)."
Another clueless person... sigh, until people get this shit straight you'll continue to find that it's always someonelse's fault that you're fucked!
Go ahead, convince me that we have "enough." Stating it as though it's some part of unicorn-land isn't sufficient. You need to provide the following information:
1) Current energy consumption;
2) Future energy consumption (can you scale?);
3) Cost of acquiring that energy. (always factor in opportunity cost- could that money be better used for something else?)
Remember: the more you promote something the more it will be consumed; what might appear plentiful can be draw down rather quickly when all our technological forces come to bear (Jevon's Paradox). Also, be mindful about where the raw resources come from.
Thats what we call the "rubber band effect"; stretch to the breaking point, then SNAP! (OUWWWCH!)
Peak Politics
Peak Bullshit
If you yanks still want to guzzle cheap oil and gas without murdering thousands of US troops - layoff the criticism of the Alberta oilsands. Speaking of which, many oil companies are laying at almost 52 week lows (especially Canadian ones). If peak oil is here, they may be attractive buys. Husky oil for example pays a nice 4% dividend.
gemini,
As yet, I have never seen us take one friggin barrel from any of the countries we are fighting.
No,we get our young folks killed for other reasons, and throw tons of cash at the lands we destroyed, ony to have them rebuild, and sell to our trade enemies.( Remember the call for Iraq to repay the debt with oil?. What happened there?.
They just made another major discovery their in the last 2-3 weeks, and announced it yesterday.
We just left a hell of of a lot of treasure and blood for free.
Hell of a deal.
Who's criticising the Alberta Sands?,shit we have to fight a bloodless war, just to get access to our OWN massive deposits.
DosZap
Too true.
The way the Iraqis have taken advantage of our good nature almost makes me wish we hadn't murdered a million of them based on lies and stupidity. Oh woe is us.
DocZap,
"As yet, I have never seen us take one friggin barrel from any of the countries we are fighting."
You can't be serious. Maybe is a matter of how you define "we". The very FIRST thing the military did when the Iraqi regime was brought down was secure the oil fields. Do you think they did that for the Iraqi people? If so, you are truly daft.
The very first thing the interim Iraqi Govt. (US puppet) was to negotiate oil management contracts with US and UK oil companies to control Iraqi oil.
When you say "we" you must mean the American people, because you can bet your ass the mega oil companies have taken more than their fair share of Iraqi oil.
What's good for the multi-nationals, is, well, good for the multi-nationals. Thanks to the blood of our children.
Sweet deal!
Your not so bright... China so far has the largest deal with Iraq, securing oil fields meant securing their (Iraq's) future... The future of a hopeful (nothing I supported, nation building, stupid) republic.
Pull your head out of markos' ass long enough to get a clue before you write...
Yeah, much better to allow the Canadian people to subsidize the costs for us yanks (through environmental destruction). Thanks!
Which is why we have high paying tech jobs here (in both production and environmental technology). In what sector are you creating jobs - Wendy's?
- or paying chumps to scoop tarballs off the beach in the GOM?
Actually, things are going to unravel a lot slower than you think; dramatically slower. Unbelievably slower. You will be so frustrated at how slow the unraveling occurs that you may simply give up.
Don't believe me?
The same arguments about the fraud, scam, ponzi, money-printing, mal-investment, dependancy-ridden phony economy could be made in 2001/2003; I know, because I did. And then look what Easy Al and Banana Ben were able to engineer from 2003-2007
The obviousness of an ultimate Detroit Big Three bankruptcy was clear (to me) in 1996. And then it took 12 years for GM and Chrysler to go under. Twelve years.
The levers that team USA has to pull, versus those of say GM, are so numerous and so varied that i would not surprise me if "this" did not play out for another thirty years. By "this" I mean the "implosion", "deflationary crash", "hyperinflation lazarus" that everyone here expects.
Don't hold your breath.
Oil prices are set to skyrocket soon. The recession we never left caused a lot of exploration to cease. Combine that with the fiasco in the Gulf of Mexico and your left with a ticking time bomb. Grain prices are also a generational high which will further increase once the dismal numbers from the Western Canadian harvest are in. High grain prices will translate into high meat prices. High energy prices with high food prices spell certain doom for whatever shard of a world economy is left. Buckle up, because you will be paying a ton more for groceries this winter.
Yeah, and cancer patients once had really slow-growing cancer in them too, but then...
Martenson is right. And given the amount of people there are a stampede is very easy.
But, go ahead and go back to rocking in your easy-chair...
First thing I agree with you on, it will be painfully decadal slow....
I hope it goes slow like this and perhaps it will give us the ability to work out some kind of "softer" landing, I think alot of people are working very hard to have this become a reality, but I doubt they will be successful. I had family live though the depression in NYC describe in detail the lead up to the crash on the markets... shaking their heads saying "the damn fools are going to let it happen again", this was in the late 1990's, they didn't live to see it. I tend to be a half full kinda person but I think you have more neg. feedbacks in the system now. I think that the next shoe to drop will be one of the PIGS defaulting, then all hell will break lose.
The spinning and unraveling and constant repairing of the web leads to one thing--the Fed. Until that racket is done away with we will be under constant and unrelenting assaut from all sides. Senator Louis Thomas McFadden was a contemporary of the foreign intruders and our own quislings who birthed that ogre, and recognising the danger to America he took them on and paid very dearly. Here is his speech.
http://hiwaay.net/~becraft/mcfadden.html
Wow, talk about ending with a cliffhanger! Although it is not hard to see where this analysis is leading.
Still, it would be difficult for anyone but a CNBC shillclownparrot to deny these obvious truths. Not that the majority do not deny 100 major truths on a daily basis, however.
Have you ever thought that in fact it's not just peak oil,but peak everything.
we are consuming this planet in an unsustainable rate.For some time, i offen think that economic problems are only a sideffect.
What i meen is,when was the last time you red a good book that was written the year before,or a new song that spoke to you.i bellieve that something is coming from everywhere like a ''median'' fair punishment.
Sorry for my mistakes,I'm greek.
Follow the jet contrails to catch your leader Al Gore.
Yep, peak (supply of) Nat. Gas. Never has so much been available to so many with no use.
And I'm not referring to Bwaney Fwank farts.
True. If Leo really wants to buy on the dips, he'd be buying the UNG by now and add to his positions at every chance.
The future is NatGas, no doubt.
I am looking into buying a NatGas car, actually. A Honda NGV. Check it out.
"The future is NatGas, no doubt."
The future of what? Your pocketbook?
NG will deplete even faster given a piling-on. And consider that the US imports gobs of it from Canada...
Strength through exhaustion! Yeah, baby!
A few posters seem to have come close and the Archdruid was mentioned even but his post on Exergy is critical to understanding that what we try to replace oil with... ain't oil. The ROEI problem is fatal to the system.... PLEASE just go read this thing....CB
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2010/03/exergy-crisis.html
Economy is complex but also ''non material'' aspect of our suroundings.the real problems (for example less water) will find multiple ways to dilute in the system and multiple exits.
More doomster porn.
For further critical analysis, enrollment required.
For lessons in the appreciation of real porn (not to mention shirking of responsibility and avoidance of reality), I hear they are giving masters-level courses at the SEC.
Too true akak, too true. The lack of depth perception of a great many ignorant's prevail on this blog and the world outside it. This is not an economic crisis we face but an ecological/survival crisis just as any other species faced with population pressure for both space and resources demand. No other animal other than us exhibits arrogancy the way only we can exude and flaunt it. For those who think Peak Oil and Peak Resources is some socialist, conspiratorial or communist myth are in need of a real education in the sciences, as well as common sense, growing up and the acceptance that reality doesn't give two shit's if you like it or not. What each and every one of us will come to understand, if they live through this, is that money means absolutely nothing, but resources and the ability to eat, find shelter, and have access to clean water will be the rate limiting factor for survival soon enough. If this is in doubt, I'll take the other side of that bet. Whoever loses gets the other's lunch.
They will tell us and WE will listen. You talk like one of them.
you are a waste of time
You got That right- YOU will listen. Stay ignorant, some non-blind people need a bit of help, and it's people like you who help provide traction.
like the current situation is some kind of accident
When I was young, I didn't want to ever live be old.
Now I'm old, and glad I'm not young.
Fair Winds, ZH's!
''critical analysis''
with no real data?
Sometimes you have to use your sences.
Sometimes even I get picky about spelling when brevity is the soul..
What to do with $100,000?
Here is an un-hypothetical. After over a year of waiting, maneuvering and outright assault, I am receiving $100,000 cash lump sum by the end of October for services rendered. From then to now its been a lean year for me, the family, you and everyone else. In hindsight, starting in late 2006, what could any of us have done differently? With all the falling sky scenarios, how exactly to "invest" this money going forward?
Is there even a reason to pay off debt/mortgage? 6 months ago, I would say, "Yes." Now, its an important question in contrast. I can't eat gold and silver. I cannot just uproot the family like Noah and pray for rain. Hiding in the woods with .308 reloads and the Holy Ghost does not seen like a sound business model, nor does handing the cash over to BAC and "banking holidays." I still have to eat and watch over the family for better days. We have to look over the horizon for opportunities to apprehend with some joy in our hearts. That is (was) the Spirit of America. I am finished worrying about things I cannot control.
Time to man up and roll the dice.
Any advice from the peanut (nut) gallery and all traders/risk takers in between.
I managed to find a savings account yielding 2%.
I am not sure how you view that money. If you are extremely risk averse park it where you can get something. Option 2.
I managed to find a savings account yielding 2%.
I am not sure how you view that money. If you are extremely risk averse park it where you can get a little something. Currently I have the same situation. I am trying to find a piece of land/house to pay cash for. I'm not sure I can wait for the next leg down in prices- or whether that would be prudent- trying to catch the absolute bottom. I've also been looking at foreign investments, swiss franc, in particular.
I simply can't buy gold at these levels. I already have a little. I am in wealth storage not speculation.
I put my condo up for sale and hope to be in the same enviable boat soon. When I dump it, I'm going all in on Ag.
I get blank stares when I tell loved ones.
Yup! Tired of being part of the talking-do-nothing-or-hide-out-in-the-woods folks. Best to actually be productive- Food, Shelter and Water, and sharing it for people who believe in and will work for the same...
zhongguo
Here's a thought. Start a blog and sell doomster porn. There is no limit to the appetite for it. The psychological underpinnings for my suggestion are obvious.
What will make your blog different from all the others is you can offer a virtual cigarette and handwipe gratis to all your customers as they exit your establishment.
Intellectual frailty, cowardice and depravity, thy name is FrancisMarion.
Welcome to the fan club. Care to tell us a little about yourself?
Agag, Acrack, what is it again?
running low on IQ points francismarion???
Run, it's the fulking hulk!
Nice to see you back, Johnny!
Everyone likes a little ass...nobody likes a smartass.
A pity you like'em little, Womething Sicked. But, then again, it sounds like the Brave New World may be just the place for you.
I have been in the same boat with about that same amount in cash. Here's what I'm doing: I am paying off all debt. I considered not doing this as it could get really cheap in the not so far off future or my luck, there's going to be some type of massive debt forgiveness. But in the end I decided I'd rather not have ties to any of it. And let me say, so far it feels great! I've also been buying physcial silver for the past year and a little gold (but I really can't afford very much). I have also bought one-year food supply and water storage supplies just in case food costs skyrocket, which is likely. I have the rest in cash sitting in a savings account earning 1.5%. I plan to allocate some of that into commodities and energy.
If everyone were to look to collect by doing nothing, then where does everyone think that That will lead?
Use the money, which will be worthless at some point, to be productive! People can laugh all they want, but... the future is farming!
I beg your pardon. Are you promising a rose garden?
If it was me, in this order.
1. Stored food and water filter. You probably want to keep eating in the future no matter what happens. There is a wide array of canned goods that last for years and taste pretty good available at your local Costco or big box store. Also can get bulk gains. Buy things you would eat and worse case food prices go back down and you make less trips to the store. Try to get at least a month or more in, depending on your space situation. The more the better, and if you are buying in bulk you will save money anyway. Filter to cut back on bottled water or in case your area decides to scrimp on water safety.
2. Get a gun. I don't care if you are a pacifist or not, just get at least a handgun or shotgun and some ammo. Then go out and practice with it some. God willing you will never need to use it, but having it provides peace of mind, and a level of safety should the need arise. Gun and ammo can be cheap, if you want a good polymer pistol the new Springfield XDMs are excellent, love the .45ACP.
3. Get physical gold/silver. If/when the Gov doe lead us to total destruction they will hold some sort of value on the other side. It may go up or down in the short term, but I bought mine as currency crisis insurance. Take possession of it, the whole idea is to get away from counter party risk.
Getting a rural place may nice but many of us are trapped in the places we live for work and it's not feasible, and can be expensive. Personally I have a much higher debt level then I would like, but I have an equal amount in gold/silver. For me if I'm dead flat on my face wrong then everything will be fine and I can pay back my debt no problem (It's tiny compared to my classmates, and I already have a good and secure job), and if I'm right then the currency crisis and gold/silver will wash it away and give me some safety.
Shameful,
The world blushes with pride at your better-than-your-classmates job and your gun and gold.
But I need men to pull the plow on my plantation. I pay fifty cents a day silver for a day's work. Now get into the harness. If you fall down I will help you up with the whip.
You can sleep in the ditches around the field. Potatoes go for what the market bears. If you are caught stealing, you will be shot.
If you are roaming the countryside with no references you will be imprisoned and impressed into servitude. If you resist you will be shot.
Women can work in the factory weaving or throwing pots. Room and board only. No children.
Welcome to my world.
An excellent propose but I fear I shall pass for now. I dare not even be in the presence of a man of your stature. But it does my heart good to know that such kindness will move into the future. I can only hope that the world can repay you for you kind spirit and generosity.
Shameful, you have far more grace than I!
I would have just called him (her?) an asshole.
People keep telling me I don't have any feelings.
Sorry I hurt yours, kaka.
Not really, just kidding, heh heh.
Is Twitter down again?
Build a good still and learn to use it. Distilled water, booze, fuel. Seriously, look into it.
Moonshine, priceless.
Good advice, 800 lbs of potatoes in the ground 5,000 good coffee filters in the basment.. Vodka = filter, filter, filter some more...
Build a good still and learn to use it. Distilled water, booze, fuel.
Good advice. My father would tell a good story of WWII when he was stationed in Hawaii. (USMC) On payday, he would buy hooch and put some away. When he was shipped out to the Phillipines it was chaos storming the beaches and everybody got shot up. There was nothing for the men once they got there. Morale was low. The guy in charge couldn't make things happen. My father went to his officer and said "put me in charge, I can get things done." He did. First thing my father did was call for supplies from the marine supply. They said "why should we give you supplies?" He said , "I got hooch." They said, "You got hooch? Well, bring a truck." They went up there and got everything they needed to build cabins and walkways and even a baseball field.
Make sure to have some hooch.
Working on stored food a la the LDS.
I have the home defense thing covered plus some. Saving up for that M-14/M1A though. And her name shall be "Sweetness."
I think I missed the boat on PM. This feels like the gold run up in 1980's. When I see a "news" about Gold ATMs in America, I consider it code for GS jumping the shark. Maybe it goes to $1500, but the premium on physical delivery leaves me feeling like I am climbing the rope in gym class for the first time.
I am already in the boondocks, working on my yarm.
My debts? Well I listen to Dave Ramsey and all. I am just not too excited to reward the banks and all their schemes right now.
Thanks for the insight.
Like it or not we are all in this together.
heirloom seeds.
and consider physical silver for whatever fiat you have sitting in banks, seriously. . .
Wow. So glad everyone has a lazy agenda to pump, huh?
I will try to answer your question as best I can. :D
There are soooo many things possible that everything is going to come down to your tolerance of taking risks. If you have a weak stomach, then you'll have to invest (I did say invest...) accordingly.
If you want to get rich quick (ill-advised, to say the least...), then you'll have to risk a lot, lose a lot of sleep and lose a little weight.
But how about a mixture of both? Say you open a 4X account for the "thrill" of the trade but by far the bulk of your money can go into investments in stocks and ETFs. Use your gains in 4X to add to your savings. In the future, cash will be King.
First, pay off all your debt, save your mortgage. Then, get a mortgage that lends you money for thirty years at under five percent interest. Pay points, whatever it is you have to do to achieve that goal. Don't forget, you'll still be paying taxes on this income for the year it was generated, so don't get all happy.
Take the rest of the money, save 3 percent and spread it around in stocks and ETFs that are going to be undervalued for a long time. You may wait for severe dips to begin building strong positions in...
It is a plan. it may not work for you and your style but it is one way to think about it.
:D
For what is worth, here is my free advice. I cashed in my 401k and after the very heavy tax hit went 60% silver, 20% gold and 20% cash. Make sure you have no variable rate (credit card) debt as they will screw you when the market collapses. Do not pay off your mortgage. If the market goes into deflation, you will need the cash to feed your family. If it goes into Hyperinflation, you can pay off your mortgage from the profits in your PMs (if necessary). Speaking of feeding your family. Buy a year worth of food and store it. Try to store what you eat and eat what you store. Nothing feels better than to know your family will not go hungry. Get a handgun (Glock 19) and a rifle (AKM) for each adult member of your household and 1k rounds of ammo per gun. Buy a quality first aid kit, water filtration and a generator (LP or CNG) a good one runs about 7k and will work wonders.
Once the economy collapses (deflation or hyper inflation) you can use your PMs to buy productive farm land and lease it for a share of the crop profits.
Whether is Argentina or Zimbabwe, you will be better off than 90% of the population.
I might be in the minority here, but I still say pay off debts. Why? Because it is the right thing to do. Everyone else doing the wrong thing does not make it the right thing. I belive in honoring my commitments, even if the commitment was made to a slimeball. This strategy keeps me from becoming that which I hate.
I am in full agreement with you, Rebel. the whole debt/credit system has been long since perverted to lead all of us into serfdom/enslavement. I do not see why willfully bad financial decisions should be the responsibility of anyone but the person(s) involved. At this point our "leaders" have the upper hand and can squander our money without restraint, and stick us with the bill. Iceland has the right idea, hope they set the standard.
If you can, take that and whatever other assets you have and move. Move to Chile, Uruguay, or maybe the more remote and healthier parts of Canada (not within 100 miles of Toronto or Montreal).
Otherwise, storage food, water filter, some PMs, at least one or two guns and ammo, etc. etc.
Good riddance.