This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Guest Post: Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points
Submitted by Gordon T Long of Tipping Points
Preserve and Protect: Mapping The Tipping Points
The economic news has turned decidedly negative globally and a sense of ‘quiet before the storm’ permeates the financial headlines. Arcane subjects such as a Hindenburg Omen now make mainline news. The retail investor continues to flee the equity markets and in concert with the institutional players relentlessly pile into the perceived safety of yield instruments, though they are outrageously expensive by any proven measure. Like trying to buy a pump during a storm flood, people are apparently willing to pay any price. As a sailor, it feels like the ominous period where the crew is fastening down the hatches and preparing for the squall that is clearly on the horizon. Few crew mates are talking as everyone is checking preparations for any eventuality. Are you prepared?
What if this is not a squall but a tropical storm, or even a hurricane? Unlike sailors, the financial markets do not have the forecasting technology for protection against such a possibility. Good sailors before today’s technology advancements avoided this possibility through the use of almanacs, shrewd observation of the climate and common sense. It appears to this old salt that all three are missing in today’s financial community.
Looking through the misty haze though, I can see the following clearly looming on the horizon.
Since President Nixon took the US off the Gold standard in 1971, the increase in global fiat currency has been nothing short of breath taking. It has grown unchecked and inevitably has become unhinged from world industrial production and the historical creators of real tangible wealth.
Do you believe trees grow to the sky?
Or, is it you believe you are smart enough to get out before this graph crashes?
Apparent synthetic wealth has artificially and temporarily been created through the production of paper. Whether Federal Reserve IOU notes (the dollar) or guaranteed certificates of confiscation (treasury notes & bonds), it needs to never be forgotten that these are paper. It is not wealth. It is someone else’s obligation to deliver that wealth to the holder of the paper based on what that paper is felt to be worth when the obligation is required to be surrendered. It must never be forgotten that fiat paper is only a counter party obligation to deliver. Will they? Unfortunately, since fiat paper is no longer a store of value, it is recklessly being created to solve political problems. What you will inevitably receive will be only be a fraction of the value of what you originally surrendered.
In the chart above, we see that just when the exponential expansion seemed to have run its course during the dotcom bubble implosion, we subsequently accelerated even faster. Cheap central bank money; the unregulated, off-shore, off-balance sheet increase in securitization products; a $617T derivatives market; and the domination of the credit producing Shadow Banking system then took us to even greater levels. Bubble after bubble continues to propel us, as more recently the Bond Bubble replaced the Real Estate bubble. Similar to trees not growing to the sky, something always happens which creates a tipping point, a moment of instability or a critical phase transition. Suddenly what worked no longer works.
I have written extensively in a series entitled “Sultans of Swap” and another series entitled “Extend & Pretend” the growing and clearly evident tipping points that are unquestionably now on the horizon. You can ignore them at your peril, but when the storm swells hit, don’t say you were never warned and no one saw this coming.
Consolidating the trends and distortions outlined in these two series, we arrive at the following ‘large brush’ death spiral leading to a failure of fiat based currency regimes.
The above cycle is well supported by recent and still unfolding developments. These have been mapped onto the cycle.
MAPPING THE TIPPING POINTS
Let’s now list the Tipping Points which have become abundantly evident over the last few years and which are continuously expanded on our web site Tipping Points. We track each of these on a daily basis on the site. The rankings shown below, though they do shift, we have found to stay relatively stable on a quarterly basis. Each Tipping Point has the capability of individually being a catalyst to advance the sector marked in red above.
SEQUENCE & TIMEFRAMES
We can never be sure of the sequence and time frame of any particular Tipping Point. Like a house of cards you never know which one, or what movement will precisely bring the house of cards down. What you know however, is that it will happen – you just need to be patient and prepared. Unfortunately few have the patience or think they can time it for even more profit. The greatest trader of all time, Jesse Livermore, wrote after a life time of trading, that his best gains were made when “he bought right and sat tight!”
Our current analysis on Tipping Points reflects the following:
DETERMINING MORE GRANULARITY – We are in the 2010-2011 Transition Phase
In my articles EXTEND & PRETEND: A Guide to the Road Ahead and EXTEND & PRETEND: A Matter of National Security I outlined even more granularity to the virtuous cycle turning vicious spiral.
We can now overlay the Tipping Points onto this map. We arrive at the following.
A – EXIT FROM ECONOMIC CRISIS STAGE
- Commercial Real Estate – Finally forced to account properly for mark-to market valuations.
- Housing Real Estate – Option ARMS come due and FHA / FNM / FDE / FDIC are seen as insolvent.
- Corporate Bankruptcies – Unfunded Pension impacts and debt loads (gearing) on reduced revenues.
- State, City & Local Government Financial Implosion – Non Accrued Pension Obligations, falling tax revenue and years of accounting gimmicks come home to roost.
- Central & Eastern Europe – The ‘sub-prime’ of Europe will soon erupt on the EU banking network as evidenced recently by Hungary and the Baltic States.
TRANSITION:
HIGHER INTEREST RATES
Significantly Increasing Interest Rates – A Major Global News Focus
A $5T Quantitative Easing (QE II) Emergency Action
It will likely be triggered by a geo-political event or false flag operation.
B – ENTER POLITICAL CRISIS STAGE
- Entitlement Crisis - The unfunded and underfunded Pension charade ends
- Credit Contraction II – Credit Shrinks Violently
- Banking Crisis II – Banking Insolvency no longer able to be hidden through Extend & Pretend.
- Reduced Rating Levels - Falling Asset Values and Collateral Calls on $430T Interest Rate Swaps
- Government Back-Stopped Programs - FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie MA, FDIC go bust
C - HITTING ‘MATURITY WALL’ STAGE
Lending ‘Roll-Over’ – Game Ends
CONCLUSION
A recent Zero Hedge contributing author summarized the current environment nicely:
“There is an entrenched insolvency problem in the United States, and a picture is worth a thousand words. Insolvency is not illiquidity; insolvency is about income that can’t service debt burden. Notice where things fall off the cliff: I believe we are getting close to this point. Just need a catalyst. Sequential bond auction failures here, a sovereign default there, massive liquidity drain all around, worse… whatever. The fumes running the engine (QE, or credit easing) are dwindling.”
There is an old sailor’s saying:
Red sky at night, sailors delight.
Red sky in the morning, sailors take warning!
Every morning the next batch of economic numbers is released and the indications are consistently red. Of course the market initially drops, and then miraculously rises on no volume. Since 2007 we have potentially constructed the largest head and shoulders topping formation we have ever seen.
This doesn’t mean the markets are imminently headed down. What it does mean is you should be meticulously battening down your financial hatches and checking your options for every eventuality.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” – Mark Twain
Gordon T Long
Tipping Points
»
- 41254 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
From the guy who drew up the catastrophic bifurcation up there, this is worth repeating...
What do you pay your taxes with? Dollars.
What do you pay your mortgage with? Dollars.
What currency is most 3rd world debt denominated in? Dollars.
If you live in the United States, what is the legal tender accepted at Walmart or elsewhere? Dollars.
What currency are commodities priced in, enforced by 13 aircraft carrier flotillas? Dollars.
In a cash crunch caused by asset sales...
when unemployment continues its horrible trend...
if there is a middle eastern conflict that disrupts oil flow...
if the persist world trade imbalances start to correct, and exporting nations have trouble servicing their dollar denominated debt, or they even default...
what will everyone be scrambling for, what will they NEED?
Dollars.
1. Pay off your debt. 2. Build a portfolio that is self-replicating, meaning you don't have to buy and sell it to get the dollars that you need, because it pays you a coupon. 3. Diversify the income streams to lessen portfolio variance while controlling default risk. 4. Hedge currency risk with some very small "lottery tickets" like gold or small cap stocks from India when nobody wants them.
If the dollar really does blow up, you have debt-free claim to all you have. As holder of top-self credits, you get recovery of the underlying assets, because they will surely default in the dollar collapse process.
You are, of course, assuming the NYSE will continue to exist. Good luck with that.
I'm saying buy bonds.
Hi jm,
This would be my question about your strategy. The trend today is clearly to not honor commitments. The rules constantly change. GM bond holders did not fare well. If things continue to degrade, what gives you confidence that whoever issued the bond will have the resources, or the inclination to pay you?
I fear any counterparty risk, including in bonds.
You should fear counterparty risk, not saying you shouldn't it is your job as an investor to generate risk-adjusted alpha.
However, bondholders that don't get paid get revenge. If the law allows, they take possession of the underlying asset from the current owners.
If they don't get that right, they take it out of your skin through the coupon rate the next time you want to borrow money. Count on that.
JM,
I am not disputing your analysis, it is just the two of us are starting with a different set of assumptions. We should both realize by the way that they are just that . . . assumptions. You assume that the rules will not change, and that "contracts" will be honored. I assume differently.
Again, how did the GM bond holders fare? Will if be different next time?
+100
I'm saying that even if you get no recovery value on a bond, bondholders have a long memory. Then next time a name issues a bond, creditors will require a high premium that will compensate for the increased risk.
I guess you're asking: "how does that help the poor guy that got stiffed?"
The threat of what happens next time keeps debtors honest. Unless they have a union that has paid off a corrupt president that doesn't care if the underpinnnigs of capitalist collapse. In hindsight that should have been a part of the homework, I guess.
I could be wrong, anybody could be wrong. I respect that you don't see things my way.
How about GM bond holders?
Obamafiscation!
I think that the marginal buyers there were made whole. There is no other way it could have happened. When the doors close the little guys out, they are screwed.
jm,
"When the doors close the little guys out, they are screwed. "
So, since MOST here are considered little guy's/gal's, WHY would anyone own BONDS, or Treasuries?.
This NEXT shoe that drops, I personally do not see folks running to the Dollar.
Or dumping PM's,( as in '08).
Unlike in '08, we have since added mountains of debt, and fiat dollars to the bottom line.
I refuse to invest my life savings in any paper asset, OR pseudo paper asset.
Like the old adage, "It's not worth the paper it's written on."
And trusting this Gv't?, Hahahahahaha......you would have to be on Crack.
We were talking about GM. Stupid stuff like this is tiresome.
jm,
er', excuse me but seems you were talking about DOLLARS, & BONDS.
Did I miss GM in your original Post?.
And yes, it is tiresome............esp when you do not remember your original post.
JM-
Indiana Cops and Teachers got bupkis.
Ruth Buzzy took care of that: ~"The parties all are in agreement."
- Ned
I believe what we are dealing with is a huge game of musical chairs, where there are way to few chairs. When the music stops, people panic, as they see the chairs are not there.
Before the music stops, pick up your chair, and quietly move to the exit.
Perhaps you miss some upside, but you get out of the game with your chair.
The exit is hard to find when the prop dance is very dark and everyone is running around crazy.
It's not about collapse. We both believe some variation of it. I think that there will be no complete anarchy where gold or silver will be the standard.
In short, I believe the center will hold, by virtue of historical example (my interpretation of history), my reasoning, and view that in crisis, the raw power of the state is the upholder of rightness.
"the raw power of the state is the upholder of rightness."
Ahhh . . . that is where we differ. I believe that that to rely on the state for ANYTHING will be futile. The place to focus is on the local community, neighbors, relationships with people who produce things, and gaining skills that are NEEDED by people. I do not believe in some sort of Mad Max scenario unfolding. I do believe that many people who rely on the state for something implied, or something promised will be sorely disappointed.
You're taking my comment in a context I didn't imply. I couldn't care less about government philosphy, politics, this or that ideological crap.
I'm saying when the chips are down, expect that government to tell you how its going to be. Remember all that gold confiscation in the 30s? A travesty of justice, but it freaking happened anyway. That's life. Expect it.
By your own argument . . . the government will tell you that you will not get the social security they promised you, that they have become "custodian" of your 401K, and that your bonds will be honored AFTER union pensions, oh, and that you can wait in line to see a doctor.
When you see the game is rigged, ask for your chips, and head for the exit. I did that in 2006.
How do you actually propose to "escape"? If you say gold, I reply: if gold is really so valuable, governments will simply confiscate it again. It's not like they haven't done it before. Frankly, I don't think it is that valuable.
jm,
So far you are the only one that has mentioned gold (three times I believe), and I never mentioned it.
I left a lucrative job in Silicon Valley and relocated to a remote rural area in TX. I spent 18 months learning a trade that offers a needed service. This job pays something like 20X less than my former line of work. However, since I left when leaving was good, I have used assets to purchase local productive resources . . . land, solar panels, wind turbine, food production, greenhouses and the like. Get along great with the neighbors, and have invested the last four years in building relationships with these fine folks. Never been happier. Oh, and since you mentioned it gold does play a part in the "new" balanced portfolio.
Good for you and I'm sorry. This place has a lot of gold fans.
Yes, and as you point out above, there will be no fooling the populace this time.
They know what happened last time, and as you point out with bondholders, the gold holders will not give it up so easily this time around. What works for bondholders works for gold holders as well. Fool me once...
Damn straight RR! If the gold confiscation was so effective, why can you still buy St. Gaudens double eagles? Looks like compliance was a bit less than 100%? The government has been run by a bunch of conniving ivy league douchebags for the last almost 100 years? (woodrow wilson was a president of princeton before the US) How?
The availability of gold coins is not a mystery. A huge number of gold coins made their way to Europe during this period. They have migrated back to the U. S. over the years. As I understand it, U. S. gold coinage was used to pay off the gold exchange for dollars before the U. S. went off the gold standard (France was bleeding us dry). That coinage survived.
There are many pre-1933 gold coins are for a very simple reason. The FDR edict on confiscation allowed each person to keep up to 5 gold coins (and turn in the amount over that). So, a family of four could legally possess 20 gold coins. Since most families did not possess more than that amount, there were millions of coins still left in circulation.
.
Rather then confiscation, the powers that be should be smart enough to tax gold at a special rate since it is being hoarded, thus its price skewed and the average citizen injured. (their argument to come)
There will be some push back & increase in black market trading, but taxing gold is easier then trying to confiscate in order to hold the price down.
You gotta find it, measure it, and pass laws to tax it.
Good luck with that.
The new 1099 requirements they snuck into the health care bill indicate to me that the feds are pretty serious about improving their ability to tax everything, including gold transactions. There is a huge push going on to repeal this provision because of the extraordinary hardship it will impose on business. It will be interesting to see how that goes.
Tricky-do you think that the dealers' records will be required to be made available under the health care bill or revised SarBox?
Maybe for transactions through Snail Mail to prove no "mail fraud."
But those records will be out there for someone's use.
- Ned
I think the reason they did it in the health care bill is that the bill uses the IRS for enforcement. I'm not sure I understand the remainder of your post.
"health care" has provisions to track PM transactions at like $600 or so and up. I'm betting that all current/future, maybe past transactions will end in some .gov database.
Then it gets interesting, they study FDR and Wilson.
- Ned
"the raw power of the state" depends on crats, who are spineless and themselves depend on the mercs, who depend on whomever pays them the most last. Unwindings have happened often thruout history and script is well known and almost always followed. This time its different? You are betting your life on that belief.
cossack-
- Youngstown, OH, mid-'30's (Roth's Depression Diary)
- Ithaca Hours http://www.ithacahours.com/ and I'd bet that Patterson sees each and every dollar from the insane sales tax structure,
- Sarajevo,
- Post-War Japan, in-War Italy, etc.
Scrip for day-to-day on purpose.
- Ned
"my reasoning, and view that in crisis, the raw power of the state is the upholder of rightness."
Jim....if one believes "the state is the upholder of rightness", even in this case, then I am afraid they will be sadly disappointed. Though I do not speak for ZH, I would think that those who submit to the collective mindset of the state, will, like an unfortunate animal falling in a pool of starving piranhas, be eaten alive on ZH.
True patriotism involves upholding the Constitution. The state is the evil corroding enemy of the people who understand what freedom, liberty, and justice mean.
If on the other hand one wants to be controlled by the state's self annihilating image, then that appears to be a lapse in the ability to think critically about this situation, because who, in their right mind, would prostitute themselves out to an image that's killing itself.
If one pins their hopes on the state's image, then they really need to step out the front door and take a look around because true insanity is the inability to recognize the truth. Insanity has a way of ending up killing its victims.
+10
This is why the current malaise. Nobody wants to be the last one trying to get out of a burning theater.
+207.52 (The amount of an old 401k that is the only account I didn't bother to close up, pull out, sell off, quit).
I will fully admit that I have missed a lot of upside potential in the last year. Know what? Don't care. Know why? Cause when you don't play, you don't obsess and worry. My stomach is full, my freezers are full, my family is happy and healthy and here. There are plenty of things one can invest money in that will help insure your ability to live comfortably. But the definition of comfort is subjective.
People like you and me Rebel, just go out and build our own chair before the music quits. I'll let the dude who wants to jump into Bonds fight over the ones in the room.
Fun fact: No country has ever honored their debt. All countries defaulted either by inflating the debt or outright default.
inflation = take more credit risk to get compensatory yield. Nature all works out.
Weimar Republic at one point had rates going up 20% per day to try to steam off inflation. The strategy did not work as inflation outpaced yields which meant that in the end, it became a net loss for debt holders.
Again, ad nauseum, there is no point in talking about hperinflation beyond the point of taking some simple hedges.
There are no facts to support it happening.
Inflation is another matter. They are separate things.
How about the world realizing that the Fed is running a dog and pony show? The world is more anti-American than ever and Military might will only go so far.
That at its extreme implies central planning not hyperinflation.
I disagree but who cares...good luck to us all.
hack-do you have any non-simpleton Weimar references. I agree with you that is where we are going.
Don't know what that does to the holders of electronic food stamps.
Thanks in advance,
- Ned
Somewhere, a faceless bureaucrat has to push a button to write currency onto those cards. When said bureaucrat is NO longer getting paid (or being paid enough), NO one will be pushing said button. Draw your own conclusions.
Did you read the PDF Dying of Money by J Parsson that Taylor provided? If not, download here: esocap.com/uploads/files/Dying%20of%20Money.pdf
When Money Dies by Adam Fergusson: http://www.wolf1168.us/misc/Articles%20of%20Interest/When%20Money%20Dies...
Some simplified charts: http://www.nowandfutures.com/weimar.html
The Economics of Inflation: A Study of Currency Depreciation in Post-War Germany
Thanks - Ned
All bonds will default IMHO. Or paid back with worthless dollars. Get some silver eagles to buy everyday stuff with.
Got 'em! 45 coming in the mail right now. A good buy at $21.60 each -- including shipping. Will stash 'em away until needed.
RR,
Why pay the Prem on Eagles,or Mapes?.
APMEX Rds are fine, and you get more bang for the buck.
Less troubling questions about authenticity will be asked re: Maples and Silver eagles.
As mentioned, it is the unquestionable recognition factor. It's worth a couple of bucks -- and that small spread will be negligible on these when the time to spend arrives.
Most of mine are rounds right now. Should I switch them out?
No, just pick up a few bags of well-worn coin of your choice for the early days. Enough people understand the difference that an exchange will form.
I've begun a plan to sell the rounds on eBay and accumulate the proceeds to buy Eagles.
Check the sales figures and you'll see that the process does have an attrition of value, but the outcome is acceptable to me. You might not find it to be so for you. When/if time comes to swap for necessities I'd rather be offering a silver Eagle rather than a Christmas Santa silver round!
Another factor is that Eagles are LEGAL TENDER. The U. S. has never demonetized any coinage or postage stamps. This ain't gonna happen without a full-fledged riot.
I used to have Krugerrands a long, long time ago. I went ahead and switched them into Gold Eagles mainly for the recognition factor. I have Silver Eagles for the same reason. I have a few Platinum Nobles, only because I could not find Platinum Eagles at various times.
I quite agree that paying peanuts for a more transparent and liquid product is worth it.
I used to buy all junk coin until the bandwagon got so big it made it unfeasable. Then I went to Eagles. As said above all for recognizability.
I have bought some Apmex bars 5 oz thinking maybe they'd be easier to store, but eight of them is no better than two rolls of Eagles in a coin tube.
Silver Eagles, Bitchez! (I just had to say it once)
Colonel, I sure wish you hadn't. I was really enjoying getting through a couple dozen posts without reading "bitchez." But I agree with your strategy.
Just that once, and no more. It wasn't as gratifying as I thought.
There is a strange humor in us old farts using the language of the youngsters. In a silent moment I looked at my wife and said "gold Bitches" She almost fell out of her chair....
laughing?
she was in stunned silence for a long moment, then laughter. Finally called out to our daughter that "daddy is talking ghetto!"
your H O T A I R, bulk, more like it.
GO A W A Y
Friedman, Lovins wow crowd at Aspen AREDay Yesterday
sold out bitchez.
Unemployed don't pay taxes.
Unemployed don't pay mortgages. Maybe you should use the aircraft carriers on them.
Third world countries may or may not pay debts.Will you bomb them if they don't? Doesn't sound profitable.
How do aircraft carriers buy commodities? Will you bomb uncooperative copper mines? Doesn't sound productive.
But they need dollars to buy food. And if you have defaults in a large enough scale, you get a financial crisis and banks don't lend money. This makes dollars scarce. And people need dollars for the reasons I laid out. It makes it harder for those servicing debt to continue, which deepens the effects I just described. But in the end, a shortage of dollars makes them more precious than gold.
The carriers stuff is just a way of saying that no one is going to screw with the petrodollar standard anytime soon. I'm not advocating the unleash of any stupid military misadventures.
Gov gives 40 million and rising free food. Gov lets you skip your mortgage payment, pays you for years without work. I don't see soup lines, but long lines at Best Buy. Cash for trash, free mortgage money to buy a shack. Next up, credit card forgiveness. Who needs dollars??
The deadbeats that live in a house without trying to make even a portion of the payment are in the minority. The majority are not, and they only wish to get out of debt.
For every guy getting food stamps, there is a personal bankruptcy creating yet more write-offs.
The Fed may be on a binge, but the states are not.
A lot of dollar scarcity for those that need 'em.
What will change your mind? When the feds bail the states? A 5 trillion QE?
I'm hedging. I have some gold and other way out risks just as everyone should for insurance.
If the feds bail the states without the institution of national sales tax, I'll worry more.
$5 trillion QE? Time to buy some real estate.
"The sub-prime mortgage problem is contained..." It wasn't the number of sub-prime mortgages in trouble, it was the leverage that was ruined when they went bad. At these nose-bleed leverage levels it doesn't take many defaults to bring down some very big financial institutions. I don't mean to be petty but it seems like you are whistling past the graveyard.
Im getting a little tired because a lot of you aren't listening. Go back up to my first comment and think about what default and bank closures will do. Over and out.
+ USD
USD = DEBT INSTRUMENT. GOT IT?
(Frustrated yelling off)
I tend to think jm has it sussed & is a lot less emotional about it
$5 Trillion QE does not mean Real Estate. It means essential commodities inflation. When people get squeezed with inflation, rents cannot rise but along with that when interest rates rise all the Commercial Real Estate cap rate goes under water.
Real estate would be last. Farms/grains/Rail Road best bet. Gold will appreciate against everything because it will jump from commodity to money phase....
you saw this little Gold reaction lately going up with the dollar. More to come. I don't think in the next Inflation phase Dollar will go up. It will go down. Maybe US companies will become competitive again due to dollar devaluation.
Sooner or later, the local grocer will refuse to accept the bogus food stamps. When the local policeman is also waiting for a payout that's NOT forthcoming because of said food stamps sucking up unearned products, I think there won't be enough Federal agents to police the entire country -- too bad for the moochers at that point...
"But in the end, a shortage of dollars makes them more precious than gold."
You just jumped the shark. When it takes a 20-Dollar gold piece to get 19 crisp $1 FRNs, please call me.... not holding my breath... but seriously, I get your point.
I would think things would utility should hold up well - water rights, perhaps farm land, etc...
Read something recently that said "What works best in deflation is not cash, its income"...
Hehe. When there's a currency shortage, black markets rise to fill the gap. That's why there's never a currency shortage in the real economy, only on Wall Street and investment banks. People lived long before there was currency.
We are finding very large amounts of bartering going on presently...(EASTERN US)
Nice to see you around Hulkster. ;-D
Thanks MsCreant, I went dark for a while, but am back!
Interesting comment re bartering. I am guessing your immigrants and undocumented guests (whoops is that a hot-button word?) are running that or, more accurately, are each running their own version. Mexican, Indian, Chinese . . .
My wife is old-school Chinese and living in Northern CA we step into the off-the-books services economy from time to time to get things done. I think very few white Americans ever get the chance do that. My WASP brethren, like I was, wouldn't know how to move through the immigrant underground streams functioning and thriving right under their noses. We have been taught to kowtow to central authority whereas the newcomers are by and large fleeing far more deeply corrupt govts. and profoundly fucked-up systems; and know how to work around.
The underground markets are a wonderfully interesting topic at this time.
Living off the books? I hope she enjoys her poor lifestyle, just another immigrant burden. 80% of post-1965 stock need to go.
By the way, bartering can't work in a real economy. You can't price new Intel CPUs in used TV sets.
How about 80% of post 1492 stock ? (fyi when columbus landed) . Reasonable barter ?
Perhaps you can't build a population of 300 million around barter. Perhaps the problem isn't the barter, it's the 300 million.
I'd bet you that Myself, Hulk, Rebel, and maybe a handful more could barter/trade/swap ourselves into a quite sustainable existance. Right now. Turn out the lights, shut off the phones and we'll get to work.
By the way Suisse, when did your rellies immigrate here? From the tone of your comment, I'm guessing they must have made the long Trek from Mongolia to Alaska trailing mammoth?
I'd bet you that Myself, Hulk, Rebel, and maybe a handful more could barter/trade/swap ourselves into a quite sustainable existance
Absolutely, the area we farm (and the area I was raised in) is poor. White and Black. Bartering and trading has always been a strong part of that culture (Appalachian), but now the bartering levels are much higher than I have ever seen, which makes perfect sense in our present financial environment.
But as far back as I can remember, rifles and hounds get traded back and forth all the time...
With some neighbors, bartering sort of evolves into a partnership.
"Hulk, you come get my baler whenever, I'm done. Which day works best for you to come over and help butcher those hogs? Oh, by the way, I got those pump leathers in, I'll bring back that pair I got from you last month."
(And yes, for you doubting MFer's there were some of us who pumped their water where I grew up.)
No hog butcherin' got that?
Eat more Chik'in
- Ned
Ned, I told you, we prayed over your kin before we ate em....
caint eat named chickens, LOL...
As a kid, I had to carry water a quarter of a mile to the relatives who didn't have running water. There was great wood stove cooked food at the end of that journey though..
i am calling all of you guys bluff. so full of H O T A I R.
Interesting point Velobabe. America is such a big place, that one half doesn't know how the other half lives (which is dangerous in the present environment)
I assure you that all of the above is true...just google Appalachia and see for yourself.
http://www.nationalgeographic.com/appalachia/
When we moved to what I think of the homeplace, I was nine. We had to save money to get the electricity brought in; it took two years. Our well was 180 feet deep, and I wasn't strong/heavy enough to bring it down on the downstroke. I could do chin ups on it all day. My dad had to weld a cheater bar on it, and I brought a big elm chopping block down to stand on.
I would pump like a S.O.B. for ten minutes just to get the water up; don't stop bitchez, cuz it'll go back down faster than it pumps up. We either hauled buckets in a wagon to the house, or on a toboggan in the winter.
So fuck you Kathyvelorapunzel.
Well Colonel, you definitely had a workout as a kid. I was just hauling city water.
Have a hand pump now, but the well is only 20 ft deep. Still a workout to fill the kiddy pool. My family got electricity about a year before I was born
Velo,
Tell me why you think they are full of hot air? I am not following the problem. I do not detect a bluff.
hookers could probably barter.
GO A W A Y
the tread gets really stupid and long on the right side.
well i doubt very much if those TWO/2 ever had any water or well problems in their life and the are mocking me because i am well "miss, water well problem".
bartering will contine to rise along with taxes as the economy slides
+2 sections of 4' spike drag I'd be willing to trade for a large (250 or larger) water tank, corrugated steel, or perhaps as partial on a potato digger.
Well played.
if I'm not very much mistaken aircraft carriers and /or their various toys use shitloads of oil, what good are they going to be when everybody's laughing at you trying to buy stuff with worthless $USD?
My guess is that our Glorious Imperial Aircraft Carriers will be instantly converted into one way submarines if we ever get into a knock-down drag out with the Chinese or Russians. They have lots of submarines and anti-ship missiles and we got maybe 15 carriers. I hope I’m wrong but I would advise compromise instead of war when our whole non-nuke military capability is basically riding on 15 or so sitting ducks. Macho bullying might have a really big price tag.
I would think you'd want to borrow as much as possible and let the printing press pay off your debt, at least that's my strategy.
I'd also suggets borrowing at LIBOR if you can. MAny of the whore banks have 1 month LIBOR mortgages. I know my payment on my 1.3 million dollar mortgage is currently about 1200 bucks a month. IF you can't beat em...
That's less than I pay on a 200K mortgage. Impressive.
Only 1.3M for this lovely Cambodian jungle paradise and financed at $1200 a month?!?!?
Colonel Kurtz you must introduce me to your realtor and mortgage broker!
"Holiday In Cambodia" dead kennedys
So you been to school
For a year or two
And you know you've seen it all
In daddy's car
Thinkin' you'll go far
Back east your type don't crawl
Play ethnicky jazz
To parade your snazz
On your five grand stereo
Braggin' that you know
How the niggers feel cold
And the slums got so much soul
It's time to taste what you most fear
Right Guard will not help you here
Brace yourself, my dear:
It's a holiday in Cambodia
It's tough, kid, but it's life
It's a holiday in Cambodia
Don't forget to pack a wife
You're a star-belly sneech
You suck like a leach
You want everyone to act like you
Kiss ass while you bitch
So you can get rich
But your boss gets richer off you
Well you'll work harder
With a gun in your back
For a bowl of rice a day
Slave for soldiers
Till you starve
Then your head is skewered on a stake
Now you can go where people are one
Now you can go where they get things done
What you need, my son:.
Is a holiday in Cambodia
Where people dress in black
A holiday in Cambodia
Where you'll kiss ass or crack
Pol Pot, Pol Pot, Pol Pot, Pol Pot, [etc]
And it's a holiday in Cambodia
Where you'll do what you're told
A holiday in Cambodia
Where the slums got so much soul
Am i missing the sarcasm?
And what happens at the next funding squeeze when LIBOR trebles or your bank simply says "not doing it this way anymore , you'll now pay us LIBOR plus xxxxxx or you can move to a fixed rate deal at double digits".
Youll be taken to the woodshed.
If you are going to try to play their game get the longest , lowest , fixed rate agreement you can find and then worry about keeping up an income stream in the interim.
Playing around with ultra short term rates is like those numpties in Hungary that borrowed linked to CHF.
Thanks... this is measured and refreshing...
so germany, russia and china rise from the ashes first???
Law of the Sea Redux
Thirty states will be encroached upon by Obama's Executive Order establishing the National Ocean Council for control over America's oceans, coastlines and the Great Lakes. Under this new council, states' coastal jurisdictions will be subject to the United Nations' Law Of Sea Treaty (LOST) in this UN Agenda 21 program. America's oceans and coastlines will be broken into 9 regions that include the North East, Mid-Atlantic, South Atlantic, the Gulf Coast, West Coast, the Great Lakes, Alaska, the Pacific Islands (including Hawaii) and the Caribbean.
Because of the decades of difficulty that the collectivists have had trying to ratify the Law Of Sea Treaty (LOST), Obama is sneaking it in through the back door, by way of this Executive Order establishing the Council. Because LOST is a treaty, Obama's Executive Order is not Constitutional as treaty ratification requires 2/3 approval from the Senate. Michael Shaw said that the Agenda 21 Convention on Biodiversity treaty of 1992 failed to pass Congress so it was executed through soft law and administratively on local levels, and Obama's Executive Order is a similar soft law tactic to enact the LOST treaty.
In fact, our Constitutional form of government is being completely destroyed because buried in the CLEAR Act (HR 3534) there is a provision for a new council to oversee the outer continental shelf- it appears that this Regional Outer Shelf Council will be part of the National Ocean Council. This means that if Congress makes the CLEAR Act into law, then the implementation of the UN Law Of Sea Treaty, as part of the National Ocean Council's agenda, will be "ratified" in a convoluted and stealth manner, in full opposition to the Constitution and its intent.
The excuse for this extreme action is because of the emergency in the Gulf of Mexico. Obama and Congress have always had the legal and military power to force BP Oil to take all necessary action to stop the gusher and clean the oil spew. While there is evidence that the problems in the Gulf have been a result of collusion and planned incompetence, it begs the question, why in world should America's oceans and resources be controlled by Obama appointees?
NATIONAL OCEAN COUNCIL MEMBERS
John Holdren, Obama's science and technology adviser, is the co-chairman of this new council. He is also a depopulation enthusiast and advocates sterilization by way of using infertility drugs in water and food as well as forced abortions which he describes in his book "Ecoscience".
Ken Salazar, Secretary of the Department of Interior, and its subagency, MMS (Minerals Management Service) has authority over offshore drilling and responsibility for enforcing spill prevention measures. The Department of Interior's BLM (Bureau of Land Management) is the entity that controls federally managed land extending across 30% of America in 11 western states. Last week, Congressman Louie Gohmert said that Ken Salazar personally prevented drilling on land in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado, thereby also preventing energy independence. In addition, the federal lands have been grossly mismanaged and present fire dangers. The federal government is $3.7 billion in arrears for maintenance of the federally managed lands.
US Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack, by way of the US Forestry Service and US Fish & Wildlife Service, has been complicit in the decline of our country's food independence. For example, US Fish & Wildlife (along with the Department of Commerce) shut the water off in California using Endangered Species Act; it was later proven that partially treated sewage was the primary culprit in killing the salmon and delta smelt that was previously blamed on farmers. This is phony environmentalism. The US Forestry Service has also misused the Endangered Species Act to limit farmers and ranchers. Remember that the USDA co-owns the Terminator Gene patent with Monsanto that makes seeds sterile.
Lisa Jackson is the EPA administrator who has threatened to impose 18,000 pages of new regulations to curb global warming which is based on lies, claiming that carbon dioxide is a danger to human health.
Department of Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano: it is unclear how these two federal appointees will enhance environmental 'sustainability' over oceans and coasts. Traditionally, national security threats (like the War on Terror) have been used by the federal government to take control of resources. For example, many years ago when the interstate highway systems were first being built, the Feds got in on the action by claiming that they were building a defense highway system, and they encroached into an area that belonged to the states. Interestingly, there were no overhead structures on highways originally because of the Feds' claim that large missiles would be transported on these "defense" highway systems.
Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, a leading globalist, is likely to plunge our country into international entanglements and subjugation, based on her past performance; an example is her support of the UN Small Arms Treaty, which is contrary to the Constitution.
Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu and Department of Commerce Secretary Gary Locke are logical choices for this destructive council as some of the planned funding for this program will come from permits and leases (oil drilling leases, for example). These agencies will limit America's energy independence.
Click here to see the full list of the 24 member council.
THE SMOKING GUN
Agenda 21 Sustainable Development is the overarching blueprint for depopulation and total control, and the National Ocean Council is clearly an Agenda 21 program:
The National Ocean Council is headed by John Holdren, an avowed eugenicist which is selective breeding through brutal means like forced abortion.
The National Ocean Counci's own report (Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, pg. 8) incorporates a section of the 1992 Rio Declaration which is an original UN Agenda 21 document!
In fact, the report says that it will be guided by the Rio Declaration in cases "Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation." (pg. 8) This means that regulations will be imposed even if the science is not understood or if the science is based on global warming manipulated data.
The 3 primary tools of Agenda 21's phony environmentalism are global warming, water shortages and the Endangered Species Act; the National Ocean Council intends to exploit all of these tools to their full extent.
The National Ocean Council's main objective is to sink American sovereignty through the United Nations Law Of Sea Treaty (LOST) with the intended result of domination by the UN over our coasts and the Great Lakes. LOST originated in the 1970s as a wealth redistribution plan to benefit Third World countries. LOST sets rules for commercial activity beneath the high seas and establishes new international bureaucracies and a tribunal to interpret and apply rules to sea activity. And LOST can proceed with those rules, even against US objections! LOST threatens to complicate deep sea mining. LOST sets a precedent that US rights are dependent upon the approval of international entities. LOST also extends to ocean flowing rivers.
continue reading..
http://www.augustreview.com/news_commentary/treaties/law_of_the_sea_redux_20100804158/
H.R.3534.PCS
Consolidated Land, Energy, and Aquatic Resources Act of 2010 (Placed on Calendar Senate - PCS)
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/D?c111:4:./temp/~c1112bQqCk::
Big Black - Bad Penny
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjneXSsvc88
Atomizer
Now we know that LOST was nothing but a Dogs dream.
"The more corrupt the nation, the more numerous the laws" Tacitus Milestones
"global warming which is based on lies,"
No it isn't, it is based on fact. I could debate till the cows come home but I guarantee that I'll win. Tackling global warming will help the US because the alternative technologies that do not release so much carbon are cheaper, therefore this would help individual consumers, plus you would no longer be buying al Qaeda-supplied oil.
"For example, US Fish & Wildlife (along with the Department of Commerce) shut the water off in California using Endangered Species Act"
No, your water is being shut off because you have no more water, you already used it all.
Mark,
I Call BULLSHIT..............
"No, your water is being shut off because you have no more water, you already used it all."
Or do you not follow the news, and the peoples lives that were ruined because of the Smelt.
That's the reason given to the PEOPLE there............one friggin minnow,who gives a shit!.
40% Unemployment rate, some of the BEST land in America fallow, and turning into a dustbowl.
FACT.
As far as Global Warming................the Temperature has Increased less than .6*F, over the past 12 years...........
As far as all the Treaties,EO's, PDD's, and End arounds, I call Bullshit also..........
IF we would GROW a set, and call a CON CON, we can take TOTAL control of the Government thru Const Amendments..............NOW.
38 States, is all it takes, they call their delegates, and we AMEND the Constitution, and take away the powers of the whole frigging lot.
Congress MUST allow it, and the POTUS has NO say.
Why we have not done this and taken control of our country is beyond my comprehension.
8
Mark-
Put your dancing shoes on, lad.
But we need to bring this outside, otherwise the OT Nazis will have us both in junk jail. ;-)
Presumably, you are a proponend of the scientific consensus that humans are the primary cause of global warming. N'est ce pas? But just as a warm-up:
1. What is the largest gaseous contributor to the green-house effect. Extra credit, percentage range please.
2. Please provide one example where your statement "...are cheaper, therefore this would help individual consumers..." is true. One will do. Some folks around here know my opinion of Teddy Kennedy, but the only thing that he did that was good, imho, was to block "Cape Winds."
There has to be an untopical cage around here that we can use.
- Ned
(psssst--I think water shutoff was related to the "Health Care" vote that SanFranNan said we had to pass before we could find out what was inside, but, hey, that's just me.)
Just kicking back with a grin and a Bloody Mary hoping this battle ensues.
BTW, my money's on the pig ;)
sorry pal, the co2=global warming theory has been completely debunked. i can't even be bothered to explain it anymore.
however, i am with you on the alternative technologies though.
and al quaeda is a media creation to hang the' blame ticket' on.
As a chemist, I looked into the global warming issue from a physical chemistry perspective, and was very surprised to find that the physics simply doesn't work. The heat capacity of CO2 is less than that of the atmosphere on average (you can look this up--sum up the heat capacities of the individual gases in the atmosphere by average composition, on don't forget about water vapor). As such, increasing CO2 emissions actually have a net COOLING effect, but the effect is so mild that the variations in the water content of the atmosphere (which is constantly fluctuating) completely drown out any signal that one might get. The variation of H2O in the atmosphere produces about 1000 times the net impact on the heat capacity of the atmosphere.
If the world is being warmed by human activity, it is from the emission of methane, water vapor, gas-phase organic compounds and particulates, not CO2.
The entire premise of global warming is based on CO2 causing an increase in conversion of UV to heat, and heat retention. CO2 has no significant impact on either. If you want to discuss the "data" that the AGW people have come up with, that is also full of holes and backwards logic. Past warming events have been triggered by phenomena other than CO2, and were trailed by advancing CO2 levels, which somehow proves that CO2 caused a feedback loop, despite the fact that the warming also STOPPED before the CO2 levels started falling again.
Further, the negative consequences of global warming are also bunk. The economic damage caused by trying to resist climate change, a force of nature which is irresistable, will scrape your entire civilization off the face of the Earth like an advancing glacer if you try. Ignored are all of the new tracts of farmland in Canada and Siberia which will become farmable. Ignored is the undeniable benefit that would come from the opening of the Northwest Passage. Indeed, the fuel saved by the opening of that passage would likely cut human energy consumption by 5% or more, as goods from Europe and Asia will suddenly no longer be bound by the narrow passage in Panama, and will have a more direct route to boot.
Much more terrifying in reality is the prospect of a new Ice Age. Imagine having to use hydrogen bombs to disrupt glacers that are threatening to bury Canadian cities under a mile of ice. Imagine what happens when such efforts fail due to economic problems that come about from a series of crop failures, and those glacers approach New York, and bury much of Norther Europe. Not pretty, and much more likely that some fantasy where Earth becomes hotter than it has ever been in its history. If such a thing could happen, it would have happened already. But we are already about as hot as Earth has been in recent Geological history, and only a few degrees short of the hottest it has ever been (during the Pangaean period), a period which also had the greatest biodiversity of any time before or since.
"If the world is being warmed by human activity, it is from the emission of methane, water vapor, gas-phase organic compounds and particulates, not CO2."
+ plus solar activity,
Thank you tmosley, finally, somebody gets it right.
tmosley, Rusty,
I too like to see Bad Science get debunked. Bravo!
I also found the (further above) Law of the Seas work-around by Obama to be very ominous.
Even if the Republicans take the House AND cut spending (highly unlikely), we are still fragged. The Cliff is closer than we think, get prepared.
...
I wish my wife would let me live out there in rural TX too, Rebel!
Thanks for posting on this. Normally I ignore this stuff because it is just "yes it is" and "no it isn't" kind of dialog and you learn nothing. You took my head where it has never been before. That may be one of the highest compliments I know how to give.
You take care MsCreant
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vnp4kj5lLOU&feature=related
Thanks. That was fun and wise.
i liked your other avatar, just sayin'
soooooo this is all subliminal shit put our by the disney
H O U S E of shit propganda. probably sunk in for some, maybe not to others. depends, hahahahahahaha, your style of learning. not M E†
thanks,
that was way better than i thought.
Very timely actually, makes you really think..
Seriously? You are a chemist? First of all, I do not suggest that I know for certain about global warming, but I do know when some is full of shit. The "heat capacity of CO2 is less than that of the atmosphere on average". That is your reasoning for global warming is not occurring. The argument for CO2 causing global warming is about it's refractive capacity preventing heat from escaping; not its ability to retain heat. You are seriously a chemist and you do not understand that concept? I would suggest you are more of a bullshitter than a chemist.
Interesting! Hope tmosley comes back.
Spot on TMosley. Had a Chem prof in 78 tell us the same thing.
Not nearly enough energy in those 100 Megaton firecrackers to stop glaciers though...
tmosely
Saw this nonsense yesterday:
by Mark_BC on Sat, 08/21/2010 - 16:23 #535095 And tried to pick a ..er.. start a reasoned conversation #535184 No joy so far. Wanna team up? I'm approaching it from Kuhn's view of "scientific consensus", separation of effects that you are also touching, and economic inefficiencies. Never did believe in a fair fight ;-) - Ned@tmosley
Just curious how you would explain why Venus has such high surface temperatures if CO2 is such a poor greenhouse gas. The temps on Venus are in excess of 460 degrees C, whereas on Mercury, they reach only 420 degrees C. Venus receives 25% of Mercurys solar flux due to it's greater distance from the sun. Sulfur dioxide gas and sulfuric acid droplets form clouds in the upper atmosphere of Venus that reflect 60% of the solar radiation back into space.
I would be interested to hear how the CO2 atmosphere of Venus contributes to the planet's overall cool surface temperature.
My pchem text gives heat capacity @ STP (J / K mol):
CO2(g) 37.11
H2O(g) 33.577
N2(g) 29.125
O2(g) 29.355
so maybe you could clarify your statement "The heat capacity of CO2 is less than that of the atmosphere on average" in light of these values. You seem to be implying that increasing CO2 concentration would decrease temperature, no?
I'm not taking a position on global warming one way or the other, but as another (bio)chemist, I take issue with fallacious analysis on principle.
I agree with you but I don't necessarily think bonds are a safe investment if the dollar busts. 2005 bankruptcy law changes allow the holders of credit default swaps(wall street) to loot and pillage the remnants of the busted institution while the top shelf creditors are waiting in line to hear how the bankruptcy court decides to doll out the scraps.
No one posted this gem.
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/even-tony-robbins-is-warning...
Even Tony Robbins Is Warning That An Economic Collapse Is Comingi was pleasantly surprised to see how knowledgeable he was....thanks for the post
Pretty significant when feel-good life coaches are saying GTFO. Either going to move momnpops or is a huge contrarian indicator
Does that mean that J6P will be coming around soon? Now that is news.
I've been around for quite a while. Thanks for asking.
That blew me the fuck away. Thanks.
Gully, that was a great item! Thanks for sharing.
Wheat is just the beginning to instill fear on new storages for population reduction plans.
Don't shoot the messenger
I think US citizens are the best population reducers because of all the junk food they voluntarily eat.
Pol Pot, Mao, Stalin, Hitler, well they all disagree with you.
But if it is the US Citizens, then it is a positive feedback loop and it will cure itself, n'est ce pas?
- Ned
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/8/21_Ri...
Brilliant piece. And the visuals are awesome.
But such a difficult time for contrarians.
What if it rally is different this time?
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
There may not be a tipping point. Perhaps it just tips over - all by itself. I submit that it already is. Everything in the blue wheel above is already happening. It is not sequential, but parallel.
ex VRWC
Musical? Add your voice to the chorus at http://economicprotestproject.blogspot.com/
ex VRWC
I think Tipping point is as overused is as where's the beef was.
Time to coin some new phrases to scare the rubes.
Maybe steal them from epidemic outbreaks.
Tipping over like Guam up in this bitch.
VRWC,
Like the tunes dude (or dudette)!
+1